~ 2448 min
Bloomberg Livestream - 2022-08-23 00:00:00
Of athletes fighting to have agency and power in the terms of their work And who they do it for. Martial arts used to be pretty culturally and legally fringe in
the United States
GPE
. It was banned by most states
John McCain
PERSON
had famously called it human cock fighting. There are some rules in the
UFC
ORG
but to a large extent Words of body parts and tactics and attacks are on the table and people get Be injured at times. My nose has been broken multiple times. Actual torn off how to get that reattached. The
two
CARDINAL
places about my neck broken. The ankle broken had to get that repaired. He broke my eyeball. I mean the bone that holds up my ball. I've had my left eye orbital fracture twice where my eye caved in. But I knew don't blow your nose or both eyes as well. At the time that
UFC
ORG
was bought for
just two 1 million dollars
QUANTITY
By the former boxing coach,
Dana White
PERSON
, and a casino owner. He'd been friends with
Lorenzo Fertita
PERSON
and his brother
Frank Fertita
PERSON
. Was struggling as where other mixed martial arts promoters. It was pretty much a fixer upper. The money that they spent to actually purchase it for
two 1 million dollars
MONEY
was much less than the money they quickly had to sink into it in order to revitalize it. They pulled off a multi-pronged strategy that was quite successful.
First
ORDINAL
they did what white has referred to as running towards regulation. They found ways to make compromises with state regulators So that the sport would not be illegal. And at the same time they also popularized it they made gambles like paying the production costs themselves for
the first season
DATE
of a reality TV show the ultimate fighter on Spike TV For weaving compelling personal narratives and rivalry people throwing shoes I coming to the octagon with who let the dogs out playing while he was dragging another guy on a leash. My
first
ORDINAL
contract with the
UFC
ORG
is kind of an interesting story because here I am on this reality show the ultimate fighter and they started to realize how big of a stepping stone this was going to be for the
UFC
ORG
status all down individually put a contract in front of us and said Hey we realize that this is gonna be huge and we really wanna have you all a part of this
UFC
PERSON
family moving forward so we wanna go ahead and get this out of the way just sign this simple contract and we'll be able to move forward as
one
CARDINAL
unit What is I'm looking at this thick contract and wondering what I should do
Dana White
PERSON
looks at me and says Don't worry this thing takes off we'll take care of you The fighters would say at the heart of
UFC
ORG
's power is the contracts that it signs with fighters. Before boxing had competition boxing used to be dominated by a few dominant promoters and the contracts were ported over from boxing and the contracts are basically designed to control every aspect of a fighter's career. There are long term. They last multiple fights. Fighters under these contracts Are bound to fight only for
UFC
ORG
for a period of time. And
UFC
ORG
can extend that time if a fighter declines a match or if a fighter gets injured Take control who the fighter fights they control when the fighter fights and then they have a number of different classes that make it very difficult for a fighter to ever break free from the
UFC
ORG
if that fighter ever did want to become a free agent So
one
CARDINAL
sided there really is no negotiation room for any of the things especially as your
See if that fighter ever did want to become a creation. Are so
one
CARDINAL
sided there really is no negotiation room for any of the things especially as you're coming up and as they're strangle hold on the sporter MMA got so much stronger Part of what's at the heart of this lawsuit is the ways that
UFC
ORG
Competitors The
UFC
ORG
has such a strangle hold on mixed martial arts and as they were buying up so much of the competition shutting them all down. They really became the the only option for anybody that wanted to do this professionally. If you follow
Dana White's
PERSON
Twitter
PRODUCT
or watch him on
YouTube
ORG
you could have seen
Dana White
PERSON
calling himself the grim reaper in bragging about how he has
Defeated
PERSON
or derailed or acquired There another That tried to compete with the
UFC
ORG
. In
2011
DATE
UFC
ORG
acquired strike force which at the time was the most prominent rival still standing. The CEO of
Strike Force Scott Coker
PRODUCT
Said
PERSON
in the past that he saw himself like
Luke Skywalker
PERSON
up against the death star trying to compete with
UFC
ORG
. When strike force was bought out by
UFC
ORG
The option was go to Contract. Now, I'm under a contract where it's only a
18 month
DATE
contract with
six
CARDINAL
fights but
5 years later
DATE
, I'm still stuck in the contract.
The month
DATE
before
UFC
ORG
's parent company
Zufa
PERSON
It's acquisition of strike force. A
UFC
ORG
executive Send an email and the subject line of that email was we own MMA. In the
UFC
ORG
has admitted in documents that have now become public that they've almost never lost a fighter that they wanted to keep.
Internal UFC Emails
ORG
. We now know The company referred to what it was doing as choking off oxygen to the competition. The most important oxygen that
UFC
ORG
allegedly Ran a foul of the law by cutting off to its competitors is the fighters themselves. Martial arts world there is no negotiating. Very strict never ending contracts and that's the case to
this day
DATE
. You'll see just says oh you wanna fight for us you sign here if you don't want to we've got
20
CARDINAL
other guys that'll take your spot 7080,
90%
PERCENT
of the top fighters under exclusive contract. Meaning that those fighters are not available to any other MMA promoter. In fighters, even if they wiggled their way out of the very restrictive contract that you have seen post on them
Did
PERSON
n't have another
Mixed
NORP
martial arts option There weren't robust rivals to go sell their work to. On
Tuesday
DATE
afternoon
TIME
a class action lawsuit was filed in
US
GPE
district court in
San Jose
GPE
against
Zufa
NORP
LLC with fighters Attached to the soup. Came to me and says hey come I know this lawyer he will help get the fairness for the fighters on you know in in the marketplace and I decided I wanted to step up for all the fighters that being affected
Help get some fairness for the fighters on you know in in the marketplace and I decided I wanted to step up for all the fighters that being affected at
the end of 2014 6 years ago
DATE
now group of now all former fighters
Auntie Trust
ORG
class action lawsuit against
UFC
ORG
In broad terms the case is an anti trust case where we're claiming that the
UFC
ORG
is both a monopoly and a monoposony. Hey when we talk about monopoly we're talking about the power that a company has when it becomes the only one selling something monoposony is about the power of being a monopoly purchaser of something in particularly a monopoly purchaser of labor A key argument in this lawsuit has been about as
UFC
ORG
succeeds and it's revenue source how much should we expect Absent illegal conduct. The fighters pay would soar as well. In
UFC
PERSON
After
year
DATE
the share of the company's revenue that goes to actually The workers doing the fighting has hovered around or
below 20%
PERCENT
and what does analysis shows through complex statistical regression modeling is that if the
UFC
ORG
Was competitive and did not allegedly violate the any trust laws it would pay its fighters
50%
PERCENT
or more of the revenues is generated just like baseball just like hockey just like basketball If instead of paying
20%
PERCENT
of the revenues generated it paid
50%
PERCENT
or more of the revenues generated The fighters would have made $
one
MONEY
. 6 billion more during the period that we measured 2010 to 2017. When you write about allegations against companies in particularly about lawsuits against companies those companies Don't wanna say a whole lot about them Are pretty dismissive of the significance of litigation against them
UFC
ORG
in their comments to me Been pretty feisty about this saying that they see this lawsuit actually as a threat to the ability of businesses to take risks in succeed They don't wanna Roll over. That they want to fight it and they want to defeat it. The fighters I talked to describe having side jobs
Reliant on UFC
PERSON
in part because
Taxes
ORG
and expenses they weren't making enough money to feel financially secure. Overview of my career from a financial perspective is you know something I've had a challenge in admitting I could tell you now that I lived in my mom's Natash garage the entire time I was fighting in her head
Second
ORDINAL
job is about turn a bartender a
third
ORDINAL
job as a personal trainer just to make ends meet.
Nate Quari
PERSON
told me that over his time in
UFC
ORG
he fought fights while he was
tens of thousands of dollars
MONEY
in debt coming into the fight it gets so disheartening because I've seen fights that are called the fight of the year this is just a Brutal war. Battle for
four and a half
DATE
rounds until
one
CARDINAL
guy's body just gave up and then you find out oh that guy made $60 thousand for that fight In one of the hearings in this lawsuit Attorney argued that if the fighters were really the product if all that
UFC
ORG
were selling were the fighters then the fighters wouldn't need you to see it all that Fighter is not The
UFC
ORG
product any more than An
Apple
ORG
engineer who makes a cool
iPhone
ORG
is the product that
Apple
ORG
is selling. We the fighters make this whole thing happen and it's been driven by
Chuck Ladell
PERSON
. It's been driven by writing guitars, been driven by
Conor McGregor's
PERSON
, been driven by
Brock Lesnar
ORG
, has been driven by all the greats that have walked before us and that walked this path right now. We are the product. If the fighters are not the product,
This path right now. We are the product. If the fighters are not the product, then go ahead and release us from our contracts. You'll do fine without us. Clearly, it's the identity and rank and popularity of those fighters that attract the eyeballs and make the sport what it is. And if you can lock all those up and keep them from other promotions, you can dominate Which is what they've admitted they've done.
William Isaacson
PERSON
a lawyer for
UFC
ORG
set in a statement that
UFC
ORG
has spent many years building a world class organization in hansing the brand of our athletes and championing the sport of MMA. See patients fighters more than any other MMA promoter with average fighter compensation rising by
over 600%
PERCENT
since
2005
DATE
. Our efforts have raised the global popularity of the sport and the overall revenue potential of all MMA organizations and athletes. In Of
20
CARDINAL
the judge announced a crucial step in this lawsuit which is that he is going to certify it as a class action. Class certification This lawsuit a much more significant threat to
UFC
ORG
and the judge made clear long before saying how he planned to rule that he expected whatever he did to be appealed into federal appeals court and on from there to
the US Supreme Court
ORG
so we are likely in for many more In
years
DATE
. Wrangling over this.
Kyle Pingsbury
PERSON
said that he doesn't think any settlement would be acceptable unless it includes a change to the restrictive contracts that
UFC
ORG
uses to keep fighters bound to the UFC My son's about to turn
6 years old
DATE
and it started when he was in the womb. You know, we're we're in this thing to the end. To change the sport forever we want the same freedoms that are offered in any other major sport we're every other major sport has gone through what we're going through right now People tell fighters.
Yo
ORG
, just shut up. How lucky you are. Well, no, actually, we're fighting for what we believe in We're gonna continue being fighters. That's how we, how we're made. Every nation that's a coastal state has some region of the sea floor that falls within their territorial waters and many countries including the
US
GPE
the area that's underwater exceeds the area Above water. So, huge amounts of nations, areas, and regions are just really unexplored, uncharterized. We know really know what's there. We know less about our sea bed than we do about the surface of the moon or mars.
Only 20%
PERCENT
of it has been mapped. A map of the sea floor could lead to all kinds of discoveries like new marine species and rare earth minerals like cobalt that we need for electric cars and mobile phones. The value of all the gold deposits alone on the sea floor is estimated to be
around 150 1 trillion dollars
MONEY
. I'm up could also help us when tragedy strikes Like
370
CARDINAL
disappeared from radar.
150 1 trillion dollars
MONEY
. I'm up could also help us when tragedy strikes
370
CARDINAL
disappeared from radar screens the mapping of the ocean floor is being carried out problem is that the southern
Indian Ocean
LOC
is just so incredibly huge to me Fundamental piece of understanding of who we are, where we are, where things are, once you understand something, you start to value it more
Preserving
PERSON
it and keeping it going. A map is the
first
ORDINAL
step. It's the basic understanding that you need to figure out where you are. Oceans. They cover
over 70%
PERCENT
of the planet but most of what lies underneath is a mystery. The sea floor is a really fascinating landscape. We don't have a lot of data to describe the shape of it in detail. But in places where we do there are spectacular features. There's meandering channels with all kinds of interesting photography. There are canyons. There are sea mounts.
Mid Ridges
ORG
all kinds of things that we see on land that are just basically hidden from us by the water. As it stands this is what a map of the sea bed looks like or that black those are the parts we haven't mapped yet. And most people think that the sea floor is actually mapped because you'll see a world ocean nap and you can see some shape of the sea floor but most of that is based on prediction
roughly 80%
PERCENT
of what you see for the world ocean floor is modeled based on measurements of the sea surface height and a computation Based on gravity. In
2017
DATE
the nip on foundation
ORG
and the general bathroom
metric chart
PERSON
of the oceans or jebco launched sea bed
2030
DATE
It's a collaborative project to collect and collect data ocean wide and create a complete map of the sea floor by
the end of the decade
DATE
To do this would take one ship
around 350 years
DATE
at a cost of
up to three 1 billion dollars
QUANTITY
that's why data is harvested by all kinds of vessels From fishing boats to freighters. Because there is so little data It's important that
Vessels
ORG
that are capable and willing to acquire data while when they're just moving around the ocean do so. So, we have a lot of data that's collected during transits. There's a lot of academic requirements to make data publicly available. There's industry data that's starting to become more and more available. There's government data. So, there's a lot of different ways that this data is coming in and it's a really messy And challenging puzzle to put together but what's exciting is that it's a puzzle to put together Since see by
2030
CARDINAL
launch the area mapped has risen to
20%
PERCENT
and all the information collected is freely available. The more data we have collectively and other people can access the the faster the discoveries are made which really pushes forward are understanding it a faster rate than if you held on to that data and it was only you with that data. Things like machine learning and artificial intelligence are also going to kick in in
the next decade
DATE
. Because with all this data they'll be able to make connections that a lot faster than perhaps we would have been able to which then again feeds our human understanding and also gives us new ideas new ways of thinking of expiration Until
the early 20th century
DATE
mapping technology was simple Wait attach to a long rope known as a deadline. After the
Titanic
ORG
sunk in
1912
DATE
explorers proposed using sound waves to find its hole in the north
Atlantic
LOC
this led to
Sona
PERSON
the most common technique used for mapping today Operated by the schmidt ocean institute the falco is an
82
CARDINAL
m long research vessel equipped with
two
CARDINAL
multi beam so nar systems that have
Deborah Smith
PERSON
and a team of other marine technicians to mark over a
one 1 million square kilometers
QUANTITY
of the sea floor From somebody with AA rope with some knots to Our acoustics that is I call it math magic but it is incredibly advanced.
From somebody with a rope with some knots to
Acoustics
GPE
that is I call it math magic but it is incredibly advanced mathematical technology to be able to measure the distance in time of travel of sound on a moving ship. Multibe mapping works by using
Sonars so Sonar
LAW
is taking sound and the measurement of time so you have a multibean sonar and it sends out a ping of sound that sound travels to the water column hits to see floor and comes back to the ship and we measure that And we're able to calculate the distance. Each individual king of sound has many many beams. So, it looks like a giant fan across the sea floor and that fan is moving along the sea floor. So, you have many tiny little beams going across and they're travelling along a track. You can look at that data and look at both the peaks and the vall
Three
CARDINAL
dimensional image of the sea floor. The accuracy of multime sonar really depends on the water depth that you're in. Think of it like a flashlight beam and if you're holding a flashlight and you're shining it on the floor, the closer you get to the floor with your flashlight, the smaller that beam is. If you have
400
CARDINAL
of these beams all across, I think of
400
CARDINAL
people holding a Which also means the smaller that you can find information or data about. So, it really depends on the depth of the sea floor in order to see how much you can define an object. This variation in depth means that mapping resolution will range from
100
CARDINAL
by
100
CARDINAL
m in shallow waters to
800
CARDINAL
by
800
CARDINAL
m in the deepest parts of the ocean which go down
as far as 11 1000
CARDINAL
m. Remotely operated vehicles or ROVs can then be sent down to investigate sea bed features up close The 1000 m mark it's
four
CARDINAL
.
Six
CARDINAL
Sea
LOC
floor on a recent marketing expedition scientists on the
falcon
ORG
discovered a
500
CARDINAL
m tall coral structure in
Australia
GPE
's
Great Barrier Reef
ORG
the
first
ORDINAL
to be discovered in over 100 Yes. Popular, well visited, well traveled, you know, we're still finding new things. You don't know until you map it and so until you get that sort of high resolution picture, you don't know the sand waves or the old riverbeds that used to be there or the waterfalls off the side of a volcano that used to Above the surface and now is below the surface. It's a little bit of everything. Think of let's say
Hawaii
GPE
or some place where you see a volcano above the water. Picture that below the water. I'm really kind of obsessed with the whole concept of scale here. Although we can create threeD models and you know,
kinda
GPE
come up with these visualizations. It's not the same as that feeling of looking Over this big landscape but I mean I think we'll get there soon VR and other kinds of technology but it's really Spectacular to think about especially with the familiarity that some of us have with these features like what it looks like. We look out at the ocean and it just looks flat. Maybe with little bumps. We really don't think about all of this that's underneath and it's really an amazing landscape that's just hidden from us. With
more than 90%
PERCENT
of the ocean deeper than
200
CARDINAL
m fleets of autonomous vehicles could make the data gathering process faster cheaper and safer A new discoveries might help with exploration of all kinds. I also think in this next
Access
PRODUCT
to the ocean because of virtual reality and augmented reality and to that will allow us to sit in our living rooms and really experience what's underwater in a different way and see it this different alien planet
Since the dawn of man meet has been on the menu. Hey And even with growing trends of vegetarian diets and plant based substitutes
around 89%
PERCENT
of the world population consider themselves omnivores. We have come a long way from our hunter and gatherer roots. We have managed to establish a whole Designed to feed
almost seven
CARDINAL
.
7 billion
CARDINAL
people with maximized production and we managed to reduce hunger over
the past couple of decades
DATE
. And although we've become exceedingly efficient at putting meat on the table raising livestock animals by the billions comes with its own set of consequences. If animal agriculture News to expand the way it has. There is a race that we won't be able to stop climate change. But with rapid advances in technology we might soon see a food industry that leaves all those problems behind. I'm about to be one of the world's
first
ORDINAL
commercial customers for lab grown meat cultured meat to eat just as the company and I'm very very excited. Here is the chicken It's pretty crispy outside. It's really good. I mean, look, it's really tasty. Here at
1880
DATE
in
Singapore
GPE
culture chicken is being served under a regulatory approval granted by the
Singaporean
NORP
government It's the very
first
ORDINAL
time a cultured meat product meet made from animal cells grown in a lab has been approved for commercial sale. Eat just the company behind these chicken nugget style dishes is based out of
San Francisco
GPE
and got their start in
2011
DATE
developing plant based egg substitutes like mung bean scrambled eggs and mayonnaise But it wasn't until
2017
DATE
that they announced they were shifting focus to a cultured meat product In order to feed the world that we live in a large animal protein we need to take
a third today
DATE
and it'll be more
tomorrow
DATE
of our world and make it dedicated to feeding chickens and cows Areas that are filled with biodiverse rainforest taking a bulldozer to them and planning soying corn feed the chickens that we climate change is accelerated by the kind of animal production that we engage in when we bring animals in tiny little spaces Why do we need to cause any harm to any other living thing to have dinner that taste good Does not have to be that way and those things underly the force of The meat alternatives that have made it to the market thus far have been plant based imitation beef and pork made from ingredients like pea protein and coconut oil by companies like
Beyond Meat and Impossible Food
ORG
That's a very different proposition from cultured meat which is made from actual animal cells. I'm a huge fan of any company of any person trying to make a product that's improving the food system including all the plant-based proteins
And my cells. I'm a huge fan of any company of any person trying to make a product that's improving the food system including all the plant-based proteins maybe in some future menu you'll have this kind of cultivated chicken and you'll also have a plant-based version that's fine but I guess you have to ask yourself in our lifetime is that diner likely to also Move the conventional option on the menu too. Permanent solution. Will an end game to this problem and we just think this is more likely to be that the path that you bet So animals cell technology has been around for
several decades
DATE
Applications such as development of vaccines and other biotheriltics The
first
ORDINAL
known prototype of cultured meats was done by mark posts earlier in
2011
DATE
and essentially it was developing a beef
patty
PERSON
it was a very expensive prototype if I'm not mistaken or
above โฌ250000
MONEY
at the time to produce just
one
CARDINAL
beef
patty
PERSON
Concept to really demonstrate that his technology is possible and that it can be done. But wait let me grow and produce culture chicken is essentially with isolate chicken styles from chickens without having to kill them so from a small biopsy for instance Be mercy cells in a liquid broth that contains the nutrients that the cells need to survive and be healthy and to grow we really need these cells to multiply to reach the numbers that are sufficient to make a meat product We're looking into the cells that are really important for me so we think about muscle cells, fat cells, by that isolation, we are able to form those muscle tissues in culture. The culture happens inside of a fermentation tank what we call the biorector which is essentially providing the same conditions as the animal body warm temperatures some serve mechanical stimulation so that the cells are exposed to a very similar conditions that they Inside of the animal After the cells were refraid and reach a certain density the final step is essentially to separate those cells from the liquid broth that they are in Make sure that the product meets our quality and safety standards and then those cells are ready for consumption. Milk, cheese, yogurt, a lot of those arrived from fermentations. The only difference is that they are starting from a different cell type. In this case we're just using the animal cells as the initial and beginning of the product. Eat just as developed chicken nuggets so far with far more textured chicken breast plan for the future. But another cell base meat startup meant this meat has already started working on culturing other animal cells as well. We've done duck we've done chicken and and these are things that our favorites and various parts of the world for instance you know people in
America
GPE
love beef and chicken people in
China
GPE
love ducks so we wanted to show that we at
Memphis
GPE
meets can produce meats that we are the global population love to eat There's a lot of similarity on how we grow the meats from various animals or fish but they're also different because the nutrients they need and how they actually come together to form the final product the meat and I think it's very similar to how we also grow various animals there's similarities in the feed that we give cows and cakes and But there's also differences how we cultivate and it's very similar for us as well. So we've been working with the
FDA
ORG
and the
USDFD
ORG
for
the last 3 years
DATE
and really developing the guidelines on how this food should be regulated when we come to the market as soon as we get regularly approval in
the United States
GPE
people will be able to go to their supermarket and buy it and enjoy it they'll be able to go to a restaurant near them and order me directly from animal cells But it's not just getting the meat right once approved the gates open to a very high potential demand and scaling becomes the next big hurdle So that allows us to invest into allow the economy subscale to drop the price
Raises or drop surprises The nutrients we feed ourselves does the same things we need to drive that down the cell density is another technical element we need to continue to to increase that and hammering on those things of the course the next 510
15 years
DATE
we'll put it in a place where we're significantly below the cost of this animal protein and that will be one of the main inflection points that will will So here is a close up Of A
half
CARDINAL
eaten
Crispy
PERSON
chicken bite You know what? What I'm really thinking is Just I'm eating chicken. I like chicken. No The normal chickens eat. I don't know where they came from. And so I don't know why I should be very stressed where this came from either. The meat market is worth
more than
CARDINAL
one 1 trillion dollars
MONEY
annually
DATE
and there are over
60
CARDINAL
startups in the cultured meat field Cultured meat has attracted several prominent investors
Richard Branson
PERSON
and
Bill Gates
PERSON
what is also interesting is that even meet giant such as cargill and Tyson have invested in space it's this destructive potential of the the market as well as the promise to greatly The climate impact of meat production that has attracts the investors. It remains to be seen who will get regulatory approval in which countries and whether consumers will like lab go meet enough to make this switch and while there's no evidence that lab grow meat is any less healthy than traditional meat there's an ongoing debate over how healthy eating meat is in general. But if these products are a success they could be the beginning of a more humane less destructive meat industry. The food on egg industry is the most innovative industry in the world. It's always figured out how to feed a growing population. And we've never failed doing so. And it's been very clear to us that we are part of that and we're gonna figure out how to feed the next
three 1 billion
QUANTITY
people joining us. And I just seen evolution. We can do this a bit differently. We can do this in a way. It is consistent with the kind of people that we wanna be. The kind of planet that we all wanna live in. We can build a food system that reflects really the best characteristics of who we are. And that makes me really helpful. Impossible foods might be the world's most ambitious company. Just listen to founder and CEO
Pat Brown
PERSON
. People wonder how big the plant based meat industry is gonna be. It will be the meet industry in
20 years
DATE
. We're gonna look back and basically say, wow. Back in the day when we used to use animals to make meat. Yes impossible stated goal really is to replace the use of animals as a food production technology globally by
2035
DATE
. That would mean supplying a $
one
MONEY
.
20 billion
CARDINAL
industry not to mention a source of sustenance as old as time. To be fair, the company has got a lot of people talking about its products. So, there's this thing called the impossible burger. Let's call the artificial meaning
As old as time. To be fair, the company has got a lot of people talking about its products. So, there's this thing called the impossible burger. Let's call the artificial meat, the realest, fakeest burger in the world. Not that. But before impossible foods can take over the world it's going to have to overcome strong competitors penetrate tough new markets and generally transform its product from a conversation piece into a staple food With the coronavirus turning the world of food upside down this could be the moment when impossible's new fangled meat goes main street. Impossible foods was founded in
2011
DATE
when
Pat Brown
PERSON
a long time vegan was nearing the end of an accomplished career in biochemistry. I've been a scientist my whole life and just came to this realization that by far the most important scientific question in the world is what makes me delicious?
Pat Brown
PERSON
at someone call is for his mission. Really doesn't hold back when it comes to talking about wanting to completely replace animal agriculture. Producing meat from animals is the most destructive technology on earth and If we're going to avert We have to find a better way to produce speed Their digestive systems produce large quantities of the powerful greenhouse gas methane In fact it's estimated that livestock farming is responsible for
nearly 15%
PERCENT
of all greenhouse gas emissions. Impossible claims it takes
89%
PERCENT
less GHGs
87%
PERCENT
less water and
96%
PERCENT
less land to produce its burger The key of course would be to get people to actually eat the thing which is where the company's secret ingredient comes in. Hey genetically engineered substance with a bloody iron rich taste like red meat. So him is a very controversial part of the impossible burger. It's also what makes the impossible burger what There are a lot of consumer groups and anti
GMO
ORG
groups that oppose the impossible burger because of the heem. Studies on its safety are pretty short term but the
FDA
ORG
has approved it and the company says it's Safe and there isn't any evidence that it isn't. Critics have also challenged the company's claim to health advantages over traditional meat pointing out that while the impossible burger has less fat sodium and calories then it's beefy cousin it's also more highly processed But let's be real we're talking about mimicking hamburgers here not kale salads. These burgers are definitely better for the environment so that's a plus but they are not necessarily better for your health. And the impossible burger made it debut in
2016
DATE
. Their burger began it's life in the public when it was sold at
David Shank's
PERSON
mama
Fuku
PERSON
And they went from sort of higher and fine dining restaurants into high-end burger restaurants like bare burger and mommy burger and then suddenly they started popping up everywhere. This taste like a burger. It taste like meat. This is all made from plants. It's all made from this taste like beef. Does not just look like real meat. Just like a burger it taste like yokers. Relax. No. Doesn't taste like a burger. On the impossible burgers relative meetings but the debate itself was fantastic for advertising help in to propel impossible into major chains like white castle and then in
the summer of 2019
DATE
into
more than 7000
CARDINAL
burger kings across the
US
GPE
. To date the company has raised over a
one 1 billion dollars
MONEY
and a funding round in
March
DATE
valued the company at
around four 1 billion
MONEY
. But fake meat is a happening space these days and impossible faces some daunting competition. So now for the start of the hour and that is beyond me. Or plant-based protein company are soaring
today
DATE
. E.
Daunting competition. For the stock of
the hour
TIME
. Beyond me is also making a very meaty burger from plants. They're very non
GMO
ORG
. They stress that all the time. To differentiate themselves from impossible.
Five
CARDINAL
plant material to make it take on the the texture and appearance in aroma of of animal protein. Right. But we won't do that. Had one of the biggest IPOs of
the year in 2019
DATE
so impossible which is still privately held has some catching up to do. That you won't hear
Pat Brown
PERSON
knocking his biggest competitor. But success they have the same mission we have the only rival we care about is the incumbent animal based industry Rivals or not impossible and beyond certainly agree on
one
CARDINAL
thing the true prize isn't the
American
NORP
market it's
China
GPE
.
27%
PERCENT
of the world's meat is consumed in
China
GPE
Prepared to just nine% in the
US
GPE
. The
Chinese
NORP
population eats
a ton
QUANTITY
of meat they're huge market
China
GPE
's a really interesting case because they have long had vegetarian cuisine as part of their culinary culture and whether they are looking for meat replacements is still an open question. What we found in our reporting is that some consumers are excited about them. It it's just we don't know if it's gonna be enough. To improve its prospects impossible is developing a plant based replacement for pork. Globally pork is the most widely consumed meat. It's
almost 40%
PERCENT
of all the meat consumed globally. Number
one
CARDINAL
in
Europe
LOC
, number
one
CARDINAL
in
China
GPE
. So, if we're gonna achieve our mission, pork is You know right up there. No word yet on when impossible pork will be available.
This morning
TIME
growing concerns about the nation's food supply The impact of the coronavirus on the price and availability of meat has given a boost to companies like impossible foods. Over
the 4 weeks ending April 19
DATE
sales of plant based meat increased. But impossible has acknowledged some negative effects from the pandemic as well. This being a product that has primarily been served in restaurants they took a pretty big hit with all the food restaurant down although the company doesn't wanna say you know how much of a hit They have however announced some new retail rollouts recently they announced that they're going to be rolling out with
Kroger
ORG
supermarkets and that that's big that's that's great for them. The question of whether this is like a long term See change for these companies. I don't know. Stop the way and see It's safe to say impossible stands a slim chance of achieving its goal of replacing the entire meeting industry. But it's early days for the science of plant based meat and it's not impossible that these products could 1 day contribute to a greener more humane future. In the meantime as the technology improves we get to look forward to many more years of this No this is impossible yeah that's what I thought this is the meat burger
Tofu
ORG
burger or anything like that Very much.
What are is a strategically important point on the map of
Pakistan
GPE
it sits very close to
Iran
GPE
actually and the very southern coast it's
about a 10 hour
TIME
drive west of
Karachi
GPE
but it's
only about an hour
TIME
drive to
Iran
GPE
the area is extremely poor it's very aired it doesn't have enough Electricity has been very spotty.
One
CARDINAL
of the most surprising things about visiting
Guadar
PRODUCT
is the high degree of security that is absolutely everywhere. There are armed guards that are required to escort foreign visitors everywhere you go because it is contested region because there have been militant attacks in the past Despite all this guada is a key part of the
China
GPE
Pakistan
GPE
economic corridor also known as
CPEC
ORG
. The crown jewel of President
Xi Jinping
PERSON
's
Belton Road
PERSON
initiative. We will leave no stone unturned. Materialize in time and in full. So far just one third of all
CPEC
ORG
projects have been completed in guada none of them have been and the promised improvements for local people like job creation and better infrastructure have not materialized. So what has
China
GPE
got to gain from developing this seemingly obscure city on the
Pakistani
NORP
coast? We have seen this movie before an outside power comes in the
Pakistan
GPE
. It spends heavily on big infrastructure projects.
China
GPE
's not the
first
ORDINAL
to do it. Right after
Pakistan
GPE
became independent in
the late 1940's early 50s
DATE
the
US
GPE
was sending advisers in the
Pakistan
GPE
to help plants economy
US
GPE
was doing infrastructure projects there too. Those early projects help the
US
GPE
gain
Pakistan
GPE
as an ally against
the Soviet Union
GPE
during
the Cold War
EVENT
. The
US
GPE
has provided
about 80 1 billion dollars
MONEY
in aid to
Pakistan
GPE
since it's independence but overall the result is disappointing.
One
CARDINAL
of the recent attempts was in
the late 2000's
DATE
as part of the
US
GPE
effort to combat terrorism in
Afghanistan
GPE
The number
one
CARDINAL
item on that A package was to build these high visibility infrastructure projects
Propose
GPE
to
the United States
GPE
In the
2000
DATE
's during that period that have become built in road projects
China
GPE
is stepping into a gap which has been left by retreating ambition from the
US
GPE
. Hey The Belton Road initiative is
China
GPE
's president
Xi Jinping
PERSON
's signature foreign policy initiative Launched in
2013
DATE
it comprises an overland belt stretching through
China
GPE
Asia
LOC
into
Europe
LOC
and a maritime road A rain southeast
Asia
LOC
through
the India Ocean
LOC
and up past east
Africa
LOC
So a benign way of characterizing
China
GPE
's belt and road initiative would be infrastructure for influence. The Belt and Road Initiative. Shortly afterwards,
China
GPE
designated
Pakistan
GPE
as it showcase flagship project. So, the
China
GPE
,
Pakistan
GPE
, economic quarter was going to be the biggest and most important showcase for this success of
the Belton Road
FAC
.
Pakistan
GPE
is in great need of infrastructure development. They wanted to create a railway, a highway, All kinds of economic development that is intended to help
Pakistan
GPE
It's meant to provide jobs
two. 3 million
CARDINAL
jobs for
Pakistani
NORP
's it's meant to provide a
two
CARDINAL
. Five% boost to GDP growth And
China
GPE
would gain economically as well.
CPEC
ORG
was intended to reduce oil and gas roots from
the Middle East
LOC
by
thousands of miles
QUANTITY
away to cut over
Prowth Economically
ORG
as well. Deepak was intended to reduce oil and gas roots from
the Middle East
LOC
by
thousands of miles
QUANTITY
away to cut over land into western
China
GPE
instead of going around southeast asia by ship. Projects in
Pakistan
GPE
also provide
Chinese
NORP
state owned companies within additional market
Chinese
NORP
workers are brought to
Pakistan
GPE
to build infrastructure and then take wages home. Sea peck is also strategically significant for
China
GPE
and
Pakistan
GPE
.
China
GPE
wants to strengthen this relationship to counter their shared rival
India
GPE
. An instrument of
Chinese
NORP
power as well as a test of
Chinese
NORP
power. If it succeeds
China
GPE
will be demonstrating that it's able to do what great powers have not been able to do in
Pakistan
GPE
including
the United States
GPE
Which is why guada is so important. It's in
Pakistan
GPE
's beloches and province and area with serious electricity and water shortages. There are different ethnicity they speak a different language from the majority in power in in
Islamabad
GPE
and they feel as the poorest province in
Pakistan
GPE
they have not sufficiently benefit Economic achievements that the rest of
Pakistan
GPE
has had That area is quite contested by the village and liberation army. The people who feel that even
Pakistani
NORP
people have encroached into their territory. So quite a number of people are still staging attacks and they attacked the biggest international hotel in
Guatemala Shot
GPE
up the lobby and killed I think
five
CARDINAL
people But this unsettled city is where the
China
GPE
Pakistan
GPE
economic corridor is supposed to lead to. His plan to develop
Guada
GPE
into an international port city.
Guadar Port
FAC
has an interesting history and an interesting location too. It's located in
Bolucha
GPE
Stan
PERSON
. It's about
120 km
QUANTITY
from
Iran
GPE
.
Pakistan
GPE
purchased this territory from
Oman
GPE
. I think in the
1950
DATE
's. And so for a long time,
Pakistan
GPE
has had on its agenda trying to Actually approach
the United States
GPE
in the
1970
DATE
's and tried to convince the
Nixon
PERSON
administration to pay for a report even offered naval access if
States
GPE
was wanting to pay for that The
US
GPE
rejected
Pakistan
GPE
's offer concerned that the pork would not be commercially viable and would cause geopolitical tension But in
the early 2000's
DATE
a
Chinese
NORP
company was awarded the contract to build the port and they completed phase
one
CARDINAL
of construction in
2006
DATE
The port was then managed by a
Singaporean
NORP
government entity. In
2013
DATE
a
Chinese
NORP
port operator took over from the
Singaporeans
NORP
In
2015
DATE
China
GPE
announced that it will expand the port as part of the
CPEC
ORG
initiative but
5 years later
DATE
little has happened. When you look out at the port you can see it has
only three
CARDINAL
births And all of them were empty And the only ship that was in the port at the time A
Pakistan
GPE
naval forget. Indicated to me that the port is not particularly operational for commercial purposes and Strategic importance in the military sense Eventually
China
GPE
were able to use the port of
Guadar
PRODUCT
as a military base. You know, no one would be surprised if
China
GPE
did use it in that way. I don't think in the short term like it is set up in
Jaboti
PERSON
where it has a permanent base. I think it's more likely to use it as almost like a sort of forward based resupply option. Something I can use when it wants to. Other projects like building
Pakistan
GPE
's largest airport in
Guada
GPE
and
two
CARDINAL
special economic zones have been delayed and
19 km
QUANTITY
highway linking the port with the macron coastal highway in
Belochester
GPE
is under construction too. Most of the people who live there and work there already are fishermen. They rely on access to the sea. The way that they highway express highway from the port was originally proposed would have cut off their sea access So that was AA real point of contention with the community. There have been some proposals to allow them at underpass.
Propose would have cut off their sea access and so that was AA real point of contention with the community. There have been some proposals to allow them underpass. It's still a little bit unclear how that is. It's finally going to be resolved. Even if those projects are eventually built, there are serious questions about who will work there. There is a problem with manpower of course in
Guadara
PERSON
. It's a very small city and so one proposal has been well just shipped
Chinese
NORP
workers and from
China
GPE
and build lots of fancy housing for them. The
first
ORDINAL
Chinese
NORP
build community in
Pakistan
GPE
a
500 1 million dollars
MONEY
development spanning over
10 1 million square feet
QUANTITY
with over
60%
PERCENT
open spaces That kind of proposal is what makes a lot of the
Pakistan
GPE
local people Sad Aguado based journalist express concerns to
Bloomberg
GPE
over projects like this. The journalist spoke anonymously for fear of persecution from the
Pakistan
GPE
government These projects are creating jobs but they're not really creating jobs for the local people of other you know not against economic prosperity but they're against the development that leaves them behind
Pakistan
GPE
doesn't have the money to build these projects. It's gone to the IMF for its 13th bailout since the
1980
DATE
's. By engaging in
CPEC
ORG
projects the government of
Pakistan
GPE
is incurred more deaths from
China
GPE
not only posing challenges for
Pakistan
GPE
but possibly the international community if
Pakistan
GPE
eventually defaults on its debts But
CPEC
ORG
is still set to go on. Even if most current projects haven't been completed, the
two
CARDINAL
countries have recently signed new projects worth
11 1 billion dollars
MONEY
.
Pakistan
GPE
's prime minister said the country's economic future is linked with
China
GPE
. It's hard to imagine how the
China
GPE
Pakistan
GPE
economic corridor is gonna be the game changer that the
Pakistan
GPE
government would like it to be. We're not seeing the economic growth or benefit from the projects that were set out and we're supposed to seem by now we're not seeing the job creation Take delays accumulating debts commercial viability these problems of
CPEC
ORG
are also typical of belt and road projects around the world For
China
GPE
though it's never the narrow accounting perspective that matters it's the bigger strategic benefits as
China
GPE
's dollars continue to flow as
China
GPE
's concrete continues to pour
China
GPE
's influence continues to increase. There was some degree of runaway expectations I think there was also some degree that they weren't extremely forthcoming with the state of the game. The cyber punk
2077
CARDINAL
story is very much kind of a story of everything they can and and will go rocking games development
Jack
PERSON
is AI flipped out he wasn't there before. I can't shoot. The release of cyber punk
2077
CARDINAL
in
December of 2020
DATE
we'll go down as one of the most disastrous game launches in history Instantly rewrote the narrative of its celebrated developer city project red. Larger studios with bigger budgets.
Game watches in history and it instantly rewrote the narrative of its celebrated developer city project red. Largest studios with bigger budgets weren't able to create the same quality of open world game. The inside story of the making of cyber punk to picks a process marked by unchecked ambition, unrealistic time And a focus on marketing at the expensive development. Project stock was at its high it was the largest stock in the
Polish
NORP
stock market. Was supposed to be the biggest game of
2020
DATE
this was a game that was sorry
Keana Reeves
PERSON
this is a game that was from the makers of the witcher
three
CARDINAL
this was supposed to be the big temple release
the last year
DATE
and for it to become such a disaster for so many people I think we'll have pretty far reaching consequences City projects origins are somewhat unique in the games industry. In the west and
Japan
GPE
delete 80s and
90s
DATE
were dominated by games through the home council market and characters like
Mario
PERSON
and
Sonic
NORP
the Hedgehog were becoming household names The same was not true in a post
soviet
NORP
and economically depressed
poland
GPE
. Most game was done on PCs and most games were copied and sold in small markets around the country. You could go to the market down the street in
Northside
GPE
and buy and sell CDs and these
two
CARDINAL
guys marching avinsky and
Mikal Kitchinski
PERSON
decided they Start selling CDs and they wind up striking a deal with the people who made a game called
Baldres Gate
FAC
which is kinda like the
Seminole
ORG
role playing game in
the late 90s
DATE
. It was never a business. It was kind of lifestyle. So, we're actually pretty bad with counting money. So, you can kinda think of it almost like You know where
Phil Knight
PERSON
was selling shoes out of the trunk of his car. You know, you can kind of think about it the same way. It was, you know, just selling physical goods and then evolving that into AA much broader enterprise. CD project named for selling CDs would move on from just reselling games to localizing
Western
NORP
and
Japanese
NORP
made Into the
Polish
NORP
language but it wasn't until
2002
DATE
that the company would make its own game. The witcher. The witcher is a huge huge series huge fantasy series in
Poland
GPE
and so it was a pretty big deal that these guys got the race to make the video games. The witcher book series is a source of national pride in
Poland
GPE
and a CD project released the witcher too the video game series will become an important economic symbol for
poland
GPE
as well the city project red had become this behemoth of an institution in
Poland
GPE
and they were really big in the
polish
NORP
technology scene because they were getting more worldwide attention than most
Polish
NORP
Barack Obama
PERSON
came to visit
Poland
GPE
. The prime minister actually gave him a copy of which you took. I'm not very good at video games. But I've been told that Is A great example poems place in the new global economy. But it would be the launch of the Witcher
three in 2015
DATE
that would elevate CD project red from representing the best of
Poland
GPE
to representing the best of the games industry. I mean really a thing people look for
first
ORDINAL
and foremost I think is that the game is just good and which her
three
CARDINAL
was just a phenomenal game. There's a level of just storytelling and emphasis on on making every side quest count on top of the atmosphere the dialogue the character interactions the different ways stories can end they nail that other open world games felt empty and enforced and the developers of
Gave
PERSON
excuses as to why there couldn't be more rich story or interactions
Blew
PERSON
them out of the water. City project red was They were seen as a studio that was willing to make what the player wanted and to truly put in the love and effort required to make a high quality game that really connects with the people playing with it. For game of
the year 2015
DATE
is The witcher
three
CARDINAL
.
Quality game that really connects with the people playing with it. For game of
the year 2015
DATE
is The witcher
three
CARDINAL
. Which are
three
CARDINAL
would go into an over
250
CARDINAL
game of
the year
DATE
awards but along with being a critical success for CD project who's also a financial success. Estimates put the sales of which are
three
CARDINAL
at around
20 1 million
QUANTITY
copies in
2019
DATE
A huge step up concerning by
2014
DATE
the witcher and the witcher too had only combined to sell
eight 1 million
QUANTITY
copies it was
two
CARDINAL
large expansions for the which are
three
CARDINAL
city project also helps separate themselves from other triple A publishers at the time. Unlock that so
Stupid
PERSON
that this has to hold on. Other games and the most notorious you know one to do this was EA's Star Wars battle front
two
CARDINAL
but they got really aggressive on microtrans actions in a game that already cost
at least $60
MONEY
you could have paid more if you bought the premium editions but not only was it that they were being very aggressive in Get you to spend money but you could actually get items that helps you win. Well
gamers kinda
PERSON
draw the line in the sand there and they don't like them. City project had done this phenomenal job of marketing themselves as a gamer-friendly company. And I'll say it again. Here at
City Project Red
ORG
. So giving everyone a bunch of free
DLC
ORG
. Was an absolutely no brainer. Hey they said we're not gonna sell you
DLC
ORG
that's like horse armor packs and other nonsense we're gonna just give you a free stuff and then we're gonna sell big expansions as part of the witcher
three
CARDINAL
And not only were they really good They were offered at a fair price and this is a company that was seen as just like a company that really cared about quality and cared about it's customers and we're not doing anything to
kinda
GPE
screw fans over the way that that fans see you at EA and activist and then all the other big publishers do. With a critically and financially successful game as well as the goodwill from the gaming audience all the focus which shift to CD projects next release
27
CARDINAL
seven. It's actually funny. They
first
ORDINAL
announced it through like a press release. And then they showed off a trailer. A vegan Flying cars lots of stuff but it wasn't really until after the witcher
three
CARDINAL
that's began really like building up this fever's level of hype city predator wouldn't put out another trailer for cyber punk until
2018
DATE
at Ethree trade show. And they showed off a it was like a
2 minute
TIME
trailer of cyber punk. Look pretty rad. And then they showed behind the scenes for
Ethree
ORG
attendees for
Press
ORG
and anyone else who could get score an appointment in there they showed this 45 minutes Emma and A blue people are like Welcome to the game play demo walk through of CD project reds upcoming title cyber punk
2077
CARDINAL
the game player about Is from a work in progress version of the game everything you see is potentially subject to change.
Paul Lee
PERSON
Everything you see is potentially subject to chin.
Paul Lee
PERSON
This if they can live up to what they showed me It's game over. It all looks incredible impressive. They had enough action, enough narrative beats with just the right amount of attention. They touted how each of these NPCs, their
thousands
CARDINAL
of them, each one with their own daily routines and everything. We've greatly enhanced our crowd and community system To create the most believable city in any open world game today So yeah so people were certainly blown away by this demo at
183
CARDINAL
awards and just people left the theater just in in where they didn't know of course is that the demo was completely fake. Fake demos are common at
Ethree
ORG
. Studios put together bills of games to show off what they intend the game to be like rather than Actual state of the game. What was unique about this demo was that it was impressively long. It
kinda
PERSON
plays into this idea that city project is very much on marketing driven company and so demos were really, really important to them. So, it's really important that they make the demo blow people away but it did. But that might have come with the cost of like some time they could have been
A year later
DATE
at Ethree
2019
DATE
fans will get another big surprise. He's welcome. Is really going to be breathtaking. You're breathtaking. The cyber punk trailers showed gorgeous
Beautiful
ORG
lighting really cutting edge technology when it comes to the rendering of the game itself people are very excited to be immersed in this gorgeous cyber punk world they saw over eight
1 million
CARDINAL
pre orders which is a ridiculously large amount for any title to sell let alone
Resell
PERSON
. Pretty much in a straight line. If you just look at like the
polish
NORP
stock market like the wig index but on CD project stock was at its high. It was the largest stock in the in in the in the index. And that was around the time that they announced that We're becoming in
April of 2020
DATE
. Behind the scenes, people were pretty shocked that they were saying
April
DATE
. I I don't think I sing all a person who worked on that game. Actually, thought they had a chance of coming out in
April of 2020
DATE
So, in
April of 2019
DATE
, I published an article for
Kataku
GPE
about the making of a game called anthem which is a game from buyer where that was disastrous in many ways and the article kind of ran through why that was. Afterwards, I started hearing from other developers who
Stories
ORG
to share that they said sounded a whole lot like anthems the deadline is unrealistic the direction keeps changing things are flowering we're going through a lot of problems this sounds exactly like what you wrote about anthem around that same time Perhaps go incidentally I heard from the CEO of
Cedar Project
LOC
where I wanted to reach out to me specifically to talk about crunch. CD project red had a reputation for crunch especially during the development which are
three
CARDINAL
there a management wanted them to have a reputation for treating work as well and not forcing them to go through so
March
DATE
and co-founder and co-CEO of CD project red came to me and said hey I wanna make AA Right now that we're not gonna force anybody to crash that people will not have to work mandatory overtime on this project. Over the course of reporting
Bloomberg
PERSON
has conducted interviews with
more than 20
CARDINAL
current and former CD project staff most of whom requested anonymity so it's not to risk their careers
Decline
ORG
to comment on the process or provide interviews for the story. The company would end up delaying the game
three
CARDINAL
different times
first
ORDINAL
pushing from an
April 2020
DATE
release to
September
DATE
then
November
DATE
and once again
December
DATE
The company would end up delaying the game
three
CARDINAL
different times
first
ORDINAL
pushing from an
April 2020
DATE
release to
September
DATE
then
November
DATE
and once again
December 2020
DATE
As well as canceling some features and while those measures helped developers still said they were under significant crunch Including
one
CARDINAL
former audio programmer who claimed to work
up to 13 hours
TIME
a day 5 days a week and stating he had seen friends who had lost their families over this This was not a big secret in the office that a game was not going to be ready but A similar sort of thing happened with the richer
three
CARDINAL
and a similar sort of thing happens with a lot of games where they don't seem ready until suddenly everything just clicks. Some of the best games ever made like would create it through this process. I don't know that it's the most efficient or the wisest way to make video games but it it's quite a lot of people too. I think that management there has genuinely To change it or at least said they wanted to change it but it is proven very difficult Change that when you make games in this one specific way. Game studios, some of them see crunch as part of their core culture. That all of their games that they've made under crunch have been successful. So, it must be a core element to the magic recipe for creating good games and that's So chronic overwork Degrades how effective someone is to the point where then it becomes negative and overworking them is just getting you less and less productivity. Having made the witcher
three
CARDINAL
were kinda riding on that high you could call it arrogance or confidence or whatever you wanna call it of having made the witch or three and I think that like having a certain level confidence can certainly be a good thing but in this case it could also be dangerous because it kind of blinded them to the reality which was that this game wasn't going to Of us.
Joni Pictures Entertainment
ORG
is reeling from what maybe the biggest emoji devastating computer hacking in
Hollywood
GPE
's history. Hackers attacked in waves first crippling
Sony
ORG
's internal systems then leaking
five
CARDINAL
Sony
ORG
movies online.
Today
DATE
the
US
GPE
government pointed the finger a blame directly at
North Korea
GPE
for the devastating cyber attack against
Sony
ORG
pictures
Tony
PERSON
pulling the plug on the interview saying it will not show the controversial comedy about an assassination attempt on
North Korea's
GPE
leader. The
Sony
ORG
pictures hacking was taken very seriously because it was an attack on the Free world. Freedom and our ability to exchange information freely have been disrupted by a country that we knew very little about.
North Korea
GPE
has reportedly made attempts to steal COVID-19 vaccine technology by hacking from suitable giant fires.
The justice department
ORG
has charged
three
CARDINAL
North Korean
NORP
hackers over a wide ranging scheme that included the attempt theft of
billions of dollars
MONEY
from multiple companies Despite so many attacks blamed on
North Korea
GPE
It was not much known about the people behind the hacking attacks In my aim was to review who these people are and what they're like, what they're operations are like And on what your dreams and fierce war.
Am I aim was to review who these people are what they are like what they're operations are like And on what your dreams and fierce war. Man, man. My name is
Sam Tim
PERSON
I'm a reporter for
Bloomberg News
ORG
In our ruler story for business week about
North Korean
NORP
hackers My story is about people who are sent from
North Korea
GPE
to countries like
China
GPE
For the regime Enemies And make money
North Korea
GPE
is cyberbilities begin In the
1970
DATE
's with a lot of students going to countries like
Russia
GPE
And even use
Germany
GPE
to learn coding it was aimed at improving the predictivity of factories at home The current leader
Kim Jong-un's
PERSON
father
Kim Jong-il
PERSON
thought that it would be a good idea to develop a team on army of people who could have For
North Korea's
GPE
military So they began this team of The hackers who would spy For the
North Korea
GPE
regime and also go out there and make heart currency for the regime. I think
Kim Jong-un
PERSON
takes The hacking ability more seriously than his father. He also enjoys. Text sadness as well You know he's often shown Travelling on his airplane Where on the desk there's a mac computer He understands the importance of computers you understand the importance of employing technology to improve predictivity. If he's economy
North Korea
GPE
is an isolated country With it's economy From the
US
GPE
and the international community basically it does not have the resources and and money to build a kind of conventional weapons that other countries are able to build so what happens is nuclear concentrates Resources on building nuclear arms and missiles which It's the kind of whipples that gives
North Korea
GPE
an instant edge. Think of cyber hacking abilities in that context. Doesn't cost them much money But if you have the right people and if you have the right training Computer systems of other countries. That's what
north korea
GPE
is after But if you consider the fact that there are
only about a 1000
CARDINAL
IP addresses in
North Korea
GPE
available. And many of them are basically From
Chinese
NORP
communications companies You can
kinda
PERSON
tell why
North Korea's
GPE
willing to send its hackers abroad rather than operate from within. What's the matter with operating from within? Well
First
ORDINAL
of all he would mean that a lot of information would have to be Coming in from the outside world which could risk exposing the government and the people To whatever truth there might be about them so there they're sending their train Hackers to china in other countries where access to information is better. But at the same time because these are allies. And also because they have their diplomat station in countries like these like
China
GPE
. Able to regulate and control these hackers better
Formally North Korea
PERSON
denies engaging in hacking and describe tank to
Jason's
ORG
to that As enemy propaganda. It took me
at least half
CARDINAL
a year to track down these people it felt like a water goose chase in the beginning
And realize that there was a lot more to do in
China
GPE
because he had more access information And he asked that he'd be sent back to
china
GPE
. And there was also recruitment going on for people who would actually Do coding But really hacking for
North Korea
GPE
so he applied and he got the job Once you got to the border he crossed by foot and from there he took a bus and then Winnie At the station he would spend
years
DATE
in later he learned that that
three
CARDINAL
story building in the heart of the city Was actually provided for free actually Bye a
Chinese
NORP
man who had business ties in
North Korea
GPE
There were actually
two
CARDINAL
other people that I had met They all said that they go into this freelance website for programmers and clients from around the world would come. And give them orders. Give them jobs to do. Some of the jobs given to John were cracking open Commercially successful Antivirus programs. It was he was able to open that up. He replicated that program. Into another product which is quite would be packaged As a whole different part to be sold to other people. He also created what we now called bots. They are very popular on
nine
CARDINAL
games. Including lineage. That would just roam around without any supervision. From the user Hey basically trade items without the user on that game He would throw that bar on lineage and sell it for
almost $100
MONEY
. Another defector said the money from client was wired primarily via PayPal to account control by reminders because they were the only ones with access to legitimate bank accounts. Tell how to make
at least $100 thousand
MONEY
a year And he doesn't get to keep most of it. Actually, most of the money goes to minders to the
North Korean
NORP
regime but if you don't need
the quarter
DATE
. The reminders will That they'll put enough pressure on you. If that happens repeatedly You will face the growing odds of being sent back home. Among the
three
CARDINAL
people that I spoke to and there's a common thing that they all tell me which is that when every
Saturday
DATE
they have to do this propaganda session which Hey basically about gathering all the hackers together into a room and they have to recite Ever messages whatever lines come from
Pyongyang
GPE
. About the cute family about socialism If you're a specimen someone who with a free set of mine that's stressful
One
CARDINAL
person actually was really stressed out About
North Korea
GPE
Once you're watching
China
GPE
during the propaganda sessions you just couldn't take it Was a senior member of the unit that he belong to And he was good at
Chinese
NORP
as well. Whenever the senior
North Korean
NORP
official came from
North Korea
GPE
. To check on the hiking units in
China
GPE
.
John
PERSON
with a company that official he doesn't provide me details But he calls you
Unsavory
ORG
instant that happened between him and an official that he was travelling with. And that altercation Prompted him To the fact But there was no one that he could turn to after the facting He would
Rome
GPE
wrong
China
GPE
. He called me that he actually enjoyed it He actually enjoyed the freedom of You know not being known to anybody Just roaming around a country that was huge How did it make the money that he did to carry on?
Just roaming around a country that was huge How did it make the money that he did to carry on He did the same thing. He did. You know, at the
North Korean
NORP
unit, he he would take orders. He would reverse engineers off to earth to make money. All of a sudden it's just He wanted to find a place where where he could just settle down He contacted
South Korean
NORP
authorities. No. Last time I checked they had a baby He works for a softer company Ironically Company What keeps coming up in my head Even After I spoke to these people Is there was
one
CARDINAL
common thing about them which was the sense of delusion Once they have access to outside We're able to freely roam in the internet. There was a sparr. And what they realize that there's a discrepancy between what they think is really happening and what
North Korea
GPE
is telling them every
Saturday
DATE
morning
TIME
that's when the spa gets bigger. That little fire. Is what eventually drives them To decide to leave Give me a few texts
Huge
ORG
risk on your lives. Step into the shopping center of the future Since they started popping up in the
1950
DATE
's
Malls
LOC
have been the quintessential
American
NORP
shopping experience. Dedicated to the wonders and excesses of retail, food service, and entertainment. The rise of the mall coincided with the growth of the suburbs. Of the malls really is the
1970
DATE
's sometimes referred to as the mauling of But really thrived at Some sort of public gathering space some sort of social life in addition to actually giving people places to shop. Over
the past few decades
DATE
before then lots of developers were building malls and it kinda coincide it with the growth of highways so as more people started travelling
Past few decades
DATE
before then lots of developers were building malls and it kinda coincide it with the growth of highways so as more people started traveling in interstate start being built developers really wanted to put something to attract people to stop. Take a look at an average
American
NORP
mall
today
DATE
however and you'll see a very different picture. Close stores and empty hallways became the norm in many malls even before COVID-19 delivered them another set of problems in
2020
DATE
. So what happened This is the story of the rise and fall of
american
NORP
malls. When malls work best they survived and thrived thanks to their anchor stores. Those are the stores that are on the edges of the malls and that are outward facing to the parking lot. So if you're a shopper, you're gonna walk through
one
CARDINAL
of these big, usually a department store. So, if you're thinking about
Macy
ORG
's or
Sears
ORG
or
JC Penny
PERSON
Those are called the anchor stores. So once shoppers are done shopping there maybe they wander to the middle part of the mall shopping at the other apparel shops or even going to buy some food but you really had to have you know a reason for people to shop in the
first
ORDINAL
place. Because anchors bringing all those people they tend to pay very little rent
around 80%
PERCENT
of income from all owners come from the inline stores inside the mall. Over
the past few decades
DATE
, malls have been facing challenges from all sides. The
first
ORDINAL
being there's just too many of them. As early as in
the 90s
DATE
the malls were beginning to compete with each other We have a lot more retail square footage per capita than
Canada
GPE
. We have only
seven
CARDINAL
times more retail square footage per capita than
Europe
LOC
. Also had to contend with a new challenge that was growing fast. Mall started to suffer in
the early 2000's
DATE
with the rise of online shopping. Suddenly, they didn't have that captive audience who had to go to the mall to buy something. You didn't have to get up, get in your car, drive all the way to the mall, and then see a bunch of other people. You could just do it from the comfort of your home. Department stores overall have become less relevant over
the years
DATE
Have fallen totally off and that's
Sears
ORG
JCPenney several bankruptcy in this space have have really hurt the industry. But as department stores go so does the mall often times so if department stores start closing locations that means they're usually leaving malls. This is
the Greenbrier Mall
FAC
in
Southwest Atlanta
GPE
Georgia
GPE
. It's in many ways emblematic of the problems facing malls
today
DATE
. It's been there since
1965
DATE
. So, for
more than half
CARDINAL
of a century, it's been serving this area of
Atlanta
GPE
. That's predominantly black Also it's middle class neighborhood It started with anchor stories that were department stores so we had JCPenney and then
Riches
ORG
which was later bought by
Macy
ORG
's so you These
two
CARDINAL
national chains It had the
first
ORDINAL
Chick fil A in a mall like that type of format. So when you think about the history of malls like
Greenbrier
PERSON
had like the perfect template. But now
Macy
ORG
's will be exiting the mall meaning that the mall will be left without an anchor which is vital to attracting other shopper Come into the stores. Ring Brio then because it's kind of an example or a test for all these other middleing malls across
America
GPE
about what do you do when these large department stores as a business decision on there and are trying to just stay in the high quality malls how does a middleing mall survive What's there next strategy
Greenbrier
PERSON
is a textbook example of how closely the deterioration of the middle class in the
US
GPE
is tied to the health of its malls. The median income for the surrounding area has reduced by $
6905
MONEY
over
the past 15 years
DATE
to a total of $
20756
MONEY
per year and yet residents in store owners hope that We'll see better days
Malls
NORP
are made up of the people and communities that help fuel them.
Greenbrier
PERSON
is still a place that people go to and cherish even if on paper it doesn't have the elements that make it a thriving mall. Of the existing Near a big mall that had AA They're very To see that taken away from them
Macy
ORG
's is gone.
Green Briar
PERSON
may try to take inspiration from what many malls were doing in
the years
DATE
following the financial crisis. Focusing not on shopping but experiences. Dramatic as a water park or hosting like concerts to have people wanna come other than just to buy stuff. Having Instagramable moments making sure your store is pretty that people wanna take a photo and post it on
Instagram
NORP
or
Twitter Historically
PERSON
, the mall has always been a place for teenagers. You like to hang out, see your friends, and also kinda be seen at the mall and that hasn't completely changed like before the pandemic,
about 95%
PERCENT
of gen Z. So,
today
DATE
's teenagers had gone to a mall in a
three-month
DATE
period. So, teenager Hopefully you're really winning over a loyal customer for life. But thanks to lockdowns across the country most malls at
one
CARDINAL
point or another were shuttered in
2020
DATE
That means no one using the
multibillion dollar
MONEY
American
NORP
dream malls indoor ski slow. No one going to the king of pressure malls indoor skydiving attraction Hey basically the pandemic gave malls what they didn't need another problem What would your net income or net operating income have been in
2022
DATE
COVID and what is it now in a post COVID world? So, our views is
roughly 10%
PERCENT
hit to net income over that period. That's Vince Taboni from the analytics firm
Green St Advisors
ORG
which rates
American
NORP
malls from A to D just like a report card and if malls did have a report card they wouldn't exactly make honor roll You're in the
US
GPE
adding a
1000
CARDINAL
malls in the country there are
roughly 250
CARDINAL
mi we grade a minus or better. The B and C quality malls which is the vast majority of the malls by count we think are on a negative trajectory and it's gonna depend on a lot of the local dynamics, ownership
Decisions
ORG
around how much money do you invest in the property? Well, determine whether this, you know, mall can survive as retail
Rapidly
ORG
melting ice cube A mall is really are doing just fine. Some of the most
Own mostly beat a D malls in
the past few years
DATE
A malls really are doing just fine. Some of the most productive shopping centers in the country are super high yen so I'm talking about
Bal Harbor Shops
FAC
down in
Miami
GPE
Florida
GPE
there is
Americana Manhassett
PERSON
in
Long Island's
GPE
Gold Coast
LOC
the
Grove
NORP
in
Los Angeles
GPE
A lot of that has to do with efficiency of their properties so their sales per square foot are really high but also they've invested a lot in their actual mall cuz it has to look beautiful. It has to have all the services that that a So what will the future hold for less sought after malls that can't revive their golden
years
DATE
? For many of these malls, it will mean closure and then, hopefully, conversion. If they can't get AA new use to come in it's expensive but you can just demolish it Quite a lot of sights just sitting waiting Has been picking up more and more of those building their fulfillment centers Also a lot of community think this is an opportunity you know to read about It was never originally designed The number one reuse of an existing mall is as work space. It's actually pretty easy and just throw some carpeting down. Cut a few more windows And turn it into office space. Sort of number
two
CARDINAL
reuse of malls is either in medical health care or education. Lots of great examples of community colleges all the way down to elementary schools. Moving into malls Then the
third
ORDINAL
strategy that I still I wish happened more is actually just demolishing the mall and three graining
Reconstructing
PERSON
the wetlands that used to be there and that frankly we never should have built on in Place. Pretty parks the gardens Post analysts save post pandemic retail shopping could breed some life back into the
American
NORP
mall many are not long for this world. Depending on where you live it might be time to make one last visit. Grab some food. Do some shopping. Say farewell. President
Trump
PERSON
traveled to
Utah
GPE
today
DATE
where he dramatically cut back the size of
two
CARDINAL
national monuments in that state. When former president
Donald Trump
PERSON
announced plans to scale back
two
CARDINAL
national monuments in
Utah
GPE
there was outcry from a lot of people.
One
CARDINAL
company in particular Really is a resistance brand. They've
Company in particular Liberal resistance against President
Donald Trump
PERSON
and really put themselves at the forefront of that movement In
2017
DATE
it sued the
Trump
PERSON
administration for sort of slashing the size of these
two
CARDINAL
national monuments in
Utah
GPE
that were
kinda meccas
PERSON
for for climbers it's set at the time joining the legal fracus was both extraordinary and obvious. So the company's
general council
ORG
said it took exactly
One
CARDINAL
email to the board. Lawsuits we're losing this planet. And And just let evil win.
Patagonia
GPE
is in business to save our home planet And then
Assholes
PERSON
out. Very implicit. Running up to the election
Digital
ORG
tool to help people find the polling place And on that
Digital
ORG
platform It says both the climate deniers out of office. Again and again on loop. This isn't the
first
ORDINAL
time that taking a stand has paid off the
Patagonia
GPE
The business which is now worth over a
one 1 billion dollars
MONEY
was built on it. I couldn't care less about making more money. But by doing the right thing it always ends up making me more money. So is this all a Strategy is a sort of premeditated strategy who knows I mean shown art's been very From the start and makes no bones about He calls himself a dirt bag climber. Sort of a textbook marriage of Profit If you wanna understand the entrepreneurs studied at
Juan Alinquin
PERSON
Cuz you know Saying you know this sucks. And I'm gonna do it my own way. Course like every other teenage kid I had no idea what I wanna do in my life. When I was
16 years old
DATE
I took off and drove across the country Went into the Wind River Range and discovered mountains.
Patagonia
GPE
was born out of rock climbers
first
ORDINAL
business she and art equipment which made in soul climbing supplies.
Yvonne Shonard
PERSON
was a blacksmith in the
50s
DATE
and he started selling climbing gear at the back of his car that was last harmful to rock faces this is sort of The origin story of the company it's called itself the activist company A activist company
6 months
DATE
out of the year art is a blacksmith he makes mountain climbing gear the other half of the year he claims In
9068
DATE
Evan Shenard and
four
CARDINAL
friends including
Doug Tomkins
PERSON
the late founders of the
North Face
LOC
brand embarked on the ultimate road trip from
California
GPE
where they were based to
Patagonia
GPE
in
Argentina
GPE
This trip The adoption Became a lifestyle and how these friends became pioneer of the outdoor in the street. She went out moved from selling petons to polyester and in the
70s
DATE
pattago
She would not move from selling petons to polyester and in the 70s
Patagonia
GPE
was born. In
1973
DATE
she went out and his wife
Melinda
PERSON
opened the very
first
ORDINAL
Patagonia
GPE
store in
Ventura
GPE
California
GPE
where the companies had quarters remained
today
DATE
Melinda Schuinard
PERSON
was the driving force behind many of the employee benefits like on-site childcare that helped the company achieve an impressive four% employee turnover rate The retail and consumer product sector average is more than triple that at
13%
PERCENT
. I do think that
Patagonia
GPE
was a leader
one
CARDINAL
of the
first
ORDINAL
corporations to Into account, you know, the human capital and make sure that their staff, all their employees were cared for, in many ways, not just wages, but also they just cared about their people
Patagonia
GPE
began donating
10%
PERCENT
of its profits to grassroots organizations in
1985
DATE
this later became the
one%
ORG
of sales that she and odd labels on earth tax For landscapes. For us living on this planet. While
Patagonia
GPE
was creating the blueprint of how to be a socially conscious brand it was also turning a profit It even made ink magazines list of the fastest growing privately held companies. So every time the company makes a decision to do something socially environmentally active. Any of the other leaders of the company The more money
Patagonia
GPE
made the more it gave away under its philanthropic program.
Between 1989 and 1991
DATE
the payroll group by
40%
PERCENT
. But trouble was on the horizon I think for
1991
DATE
we are looking at a recession The question is how deep that recession is going to be and how long will be in it? Sales fell flat and the bank called in the company's revolving loans. A company that prided itself on taking care of its own laid off
120
CARDINAL
people
roughly 20%
PERCENT
of its workforce When we decided that we're gonna start doing things differently and we're gonna start running the company as if it's going to be here
100 years
DATE
. With a renewed sense of purpose
Patagonia
GPE
was ready for what it called business unusual. It started with the costly move to recycled an organic materials before launching a clothing repair service to discourage fast fashion And
Patagoni
ORG
's influence was growing. What was intended is she went out's philosophical handbook for employees became an international blueprint for sustainable business printed in
10
CARDINAL
languages. What's interesting to me is that all this I hate the term on brand but it's very on brand it really works for the kind of company he's created it works for the kind of employees he's been able to recruit and retain it all it's it's very seamless in terms of the identity Of him and the company and and what it means In the marketplace. It's over time the company's mission Marketing have become the same thing. The inflection point came in
2011
DATE
Patagonia
GPE
took out a huge ad in
the New York Times
ORG
That said don't buy this jacket And it sort of Got into the nitty gritty and You know, the carbon footprint and the water footprint that goes into, you know, a piece of apparel like a parka. And at the time shown art said the best jacket for our planet is one that already exists. So the company at that time said it need to address the issue of consumerism which coming from a for profit business hits pretty hypocritical. As the company encouraged its customers to buy less it's
annual
DATE
sales increased by
almost 40%
PERCENT
. The
Stanson
GPE
. Talking about consumerism in a critical light while very much being a part of it. Fast fashion Tap on the list of environmental destruct And not just destroying the environment but impacting human.
Is top on the list environmental Impacting human health They are in the fashion industry there are clothing retailer To come head to head with that is courageous. You're not only Trying to create a product that'll last but you're also educating an entire generation of people In
2014
DATE
Rose Makari
PERSON
was appointed a CEO. During
the next 6 years
DATE
she grew
Patagonia
GPE
into a
one 1 billion dollars
MONEY
company what also scaling up it's environmental goals and bringing them all political voice to its activism
Yvonne
PERSON
had this model where he was basically saying you can have a great business you can make quality product but you can also do the right thing By the environment, by your employees, by your community, and that to me was like the most holistic vision of business that I'd ever seen. So right now,
Patagonia
GPE
has a team of
about 20
CARDINAL
people. Solely focused on activism and grants and this all comes at a time in
the past decade
DATE
when consumers are paying much more attention to the social footprint of companies and where they buy their goods. So, what's happened is all this is good business for
Patagonia
GPE
in
the past 10 years
DATE
. Revenue and profit at the company of
Quadruple
NORP
it's private but estimates are it does about a
one 1 billion dollars
MONEY
in
annual
DATE
sales which is sizable And that's part of the reason why it's been such a fortune cycle as it's ramped up it's activism and become more vocal on these things It's resonated with the market As the company branched out into other areas including adventure capital fund for environmental causes and sustainable food revenue reached a new peak of over
one 1 billion dollars
MONEY
in
2017
DATE
. But this was still small change compared to fast fashion heavy weights like
Nike
ORG
who made
37 1 billion dollars
MONEY
that same year
Patagonia
GPE
's conscience hasn't always been reflected in its customer base either. Personalized bests have become the go to corporate uniform. And the expensive price tag has helped the brand and the nickname
Patagucci
ORG
. It's expensive. Stuff. It's expensive apparel and that is part of their calculus in terms of the activism, you know, a lot of the more sustainable parts of the supply chain are, there's a premium for organic cotton or sustainable down. We've had a
Gucci
PERSON
label is is a symptom of that. Go to the office and that's because of the image that the the brand projects and so they have to The fact although they you know preach for the environment I want to stand for good Things of the wrong success.
Patagonia
GPE
set sales records in
the first 3 years
DATE
of the
Trump
PERSON
administration. Now, in
2020
DATE
, things have changed. Is COVID-19 brought the business well to a halt and the
American
NORP
people voted in a new administration
Patagonia
GPE
appointed brian gallet as CEO. As far as it's CEO transition goes this one's happening quite strangely There there's no real budget for
next year
DATE
yet because of everything that's going on and I'll be uncertainty around that.
Patagonia
GPE
's new focus is going to be on forging
Relationship
LOC
with the
Biden
PERSON
administration. It should be a more close relationship but gallery still has his guard up during the
Obama
PERSON
administration they didn't always agree and he expects the same with
Biden
PERSON
in
the White House
FAC
They plan to bring litigation wherever needed against any government needed
They plan to bring litigation wherever needed against any government needed About the issues that they care about and that's climate change in the environment
Want more indoor outdoor options So exciting. Sustainability and everything we do. So, really forward looking. Good? Ok. From
one
CARDINAL
of the newest work spaces at the google plex in mountain view
California
GPE
this is
Bloomberg Studio
PERSON
100
CARDINAL
. With alphabet
CFO
ORG
Ruth Porat Far from her childhood home her father was a physicist at
Stanford
ORG
her mother a psychologist after graduating from
Stanford
ORG
herself and then earning a couple more advanced degrees poor at landed her
first
ORDINAL
job on Wall St in
1987
DATE
where she would spend
almost three decades
DATE
until googles co-founders lord
Two
CARDINAL
silicon valley. It's wonderful to be here with you. It's great to have you here at the Google Play. Oh, thank you for having us. So, we are at
Google
ORG
headquarters in
Mt. View
FAC
and at this very same time, you are making massive investments in
New York
GPE
office. Real estate, you're expanding, headcount in
Atlanta
GPE
, and
Chicago
GPE
, and
Washington DC
GPE
. What's the strate Behind all of this. Well, at the core, we believe in hybrid work. So, we do wanna bring people back on campuses but not full time. We're thinking of probably a
three
CARDINAL
, two, work week, but we think coming together is just such a core part of innovation, serendipity, culture, every element of it. And we're growing in a really rapid So we are excited to be expanding our real estate footprint and then we also wanted to make sure that we're meeting people where they wanna be and so enlarging the number of sites that we have available for people in particular sites where you have great diverse populations told me that googlers will This option. Really forever. You're embracing this massive cultural shift but what are the risks you know what are you worry about So the positive we've seen is there's a productivity uplift we believe in giving people the opportunity to be at home some of the time not do the commute be able to deal with everything else in their life Coming into the office. So, the risk is I think about my career and so much of the benefit in my career was the informal coaching, being part brought into meetings, all of the touch points that you have and so, I think that one of the most important things for all of us is leaders Is we need to evolve the way we lead. We need to make sure that we're thinking about this hybrid work life and why that's the way to be the best magnet for talent and make sure that we're continuing to reinforce all of those great practices while opening up new great practice Speaking of your career before
Morgan Stanley
ORG
and you started your career on Wall St in
1987
DATE
talk to us about the journey of going from Big Banks to big tech Did you make that leap and what impact did you wanna have Well I'd love to hang at work and
Stanley
PERSON
and I became
CFO
ORG
the day
James Gorman
PERSON
became CEO yes need to join him in that and that journey and that was
January 2010
DATE
We were still recovering coming out of the financial crisis. There were still some pretty rocky days and a lot of decisions that needed to be made and then I got to a point where I felt like we were in a great spot at
Morgan Stanley
ORG
and obviously, it's continue to do really well and I just wanted that next chapter. My view in my career, I've always been focused on and I'm continually learning and I feel Hit a plateau the right questions what's my highest and best use and it's been it's been an extraordinary time. You also.
Continually learning and I feel like when you hit a plateau the right questions what's my highest and best use and it's been it's been an extraordinary time. You also survived Wall St in the
80s
DATE
and 90s. Which is you know notorious boys club. And silicon valley has sort of come to be known as a boys club of its own. How would you Those
two
CARDINAL
cultures. Starting my career many To go it was much it it was tough and much worse than it is now and it evolved no question about it not where it needs to be but certainly evolved and I saw it through my career I would say the biggest difference out here is the level of impatience and I love it it's the view as if you can do some of the extraordin
Breakthroughs
ORG
. That we have out here. If you can do natural language translation, everything we do with
AI
ORG
, with
VR
ORG
, with self-driving cars, why can't you fix this now? And that level of impatience, I think is fantastic. Legend has it that when you got to google, you were gonna rain in the spending, tighten up on the moon Your nickname I believe was
Ruth Vader
PERSON
Was that a tough job to take on? I think the the narrative was written before I got here. Yeah. And what I find most interesting about that is I firmly believe the single most important thing in capital location is investing for long term growth. I think if you don't, you are sowing the seeds of your long-term decline and I learned that really early on in my career. Now, if you're investing In an industry like this and trying to do truly transformative things by definition everything can't succeed and so by definition you should have the metrics and data and milestones to assess is it working or is it not because if everything's working Or if you think everything's working, I would say
one
CARDINAL
or
two
CARDINAL
things are wrong. Either you're not reaching high enough You're not being honest enough with yourself about the pace of breakthrough whether you're gonna get there. So, to me, Natural part you know kind of a sister How are you doing with the risk that you're taking stack rack them and figure out what's at the bottom so you can redeploy those resources to the top they go together actually and so I find the narrative False choice. That it's either about growth or it's about pruning stack ranking. They go together and and you have to think of them as actually empowering one another. The treasury department during the great recession what lessons did you take away from that what struck me is a lot of the lessons from the financial crisis are relevant in good times and bad times so the most important is it's easier to prevent than to fix and and so you know there was that was really clear during the financial crisis the financial crisis was about Liquidity and it dried up quickly and it would have been really easy
6 to 12 months
DATE
prior to build in durable equity you couldn't do it in the moment and so this notion about really building a solid foundation on which you operate To do that ahead of time. It needs to be all of the work we do on trust and safety and content moderation, security, The foundation on which you can build everything else. It said to me you have to have the will and the means and too often by the time you have the will you no longer have the means his comment was be decisive act early even in the absence of information I think that's true in this whole notion Investing for long-term growth because if you're not actually assessing progress along the way and you just assume, you know, we can keep investing in everything. What time are we in now what's your read on the economy
today
DATE
especially with ri Inflation. Hey look I think back to
March of 2020
DATE
and where we were and I think of all of the intervention and steps that have been taken since then and you've certainly seen the recovery coming out the back and and it's been really gratifying from those those painful days to see the the breakthroughs that we've had not just on the medical front but we've also seen Biggest concerns in particular is you're seeing us go through a digital transformation and the acceleration of it is ensuring that everyone has the skills.
Biggest concerns in particular is you're seeing us go through a digital transformation and the acceleration of it is ensuring that everyone has the skills, the digital training, and skills to thrive in this new economy. Google now reaches
more than half
CARDINAL
the people on the planet. Why shouldn't we view google as a monopoly? We often say that people come to Google not because they have to but because they want to. It's really opening the world for for so many people. So, that's that's the intent. I wanna talk a little bit about regulation You were drawn to
Eminem
ORG
in your
early days
DATE
at
Morgan Microsoft
ORG
is making some big acquisitions. Deals that some think Google maybe would have wanted to win in a former life. Is anti trust scrutiny constraining any of your business plans? And your ability to compete? So the main thing that we've done throughout our life of
Google
ORG
is really invest in innovation. It's organic growth. And we're continuing to do that at a really rapid clip. We have then layered onto it. Tuck in acquisitions and larger acquisitions and we're continuing to be active. More than the smaller
one
CARDINAL
Add ons to be fair but we think there's a lot of opportunity still ahead of us and so we're continuing to invest in partnerships and in Acquisitions and do you think that there's there's still upside in a lot of different areas. So, would you say this regulatory scrutiny isn't slowing you down? It's really important for those of us in certain leadership positions to be very focused on constructively engaging and working with regulators on what are the issues. What is it they're trying to solve and how can we constructively engage with them At the same time our engineers should focus on innovation and continuing to kind of up the barn everything we're doing address what is most helpful for our users google is facing more serious legal threats at this time in
the United States
GPE
than the other big tech companies How are those conversations with regulators going are they frustrating At this point. Well, there's certain elements that that are frustrating because i listen to the outline of some of the proposed legislation and I think it's inconsistent with some of the priorities for public policy. So, as an example There are there's a lot of focus on what what is called self preferencing. Are you putting too many of your own products together? But during the pandemic one and
three
CARDINAL
small businesses said they would have failed without digital skills Why? Because what they were able to do is connect with their users in different ways. So, if you go search for a small business, you can then go to a map and you can get directed to the small business. That's a good thing. We have
6000
CARDINAL
small Businesses who wrote in and said, you know what? We need these digital tools and skills. The number of things on racial equity. A real
Good thing. We have
6000
CARDINAL
small businesses who wrote in and said, you know what? We need these digital tools and skills. Same with the number of things on racial equity. Real surge and searches about where can I where's a black-owned business near me and the ability to direct people through search and maps. So, I think that once really important and
Said
PERSON
it's about constructive engagement. Let's make sure we understand what they're trying to solve and work with them on what is it that we're trying to address through products so that the products are helpful in the ways that they want. Facebook has taken a serious reputational hit Has that had ripple effects or created collateral damage for
Google
ORG
? Well I think that whenever there's a backdrop that's that's It has ripple effects but what we're really underscoring is all of the steps and investments that we are making to really protect the ecosystem the way we our commitment to our user. So, we know how sacracy that trust is and it's all about privacy and what are the steps that we're
Privacy
ORG
could protected for users. What is it that we're looking at to protect content and content moderations? Google now reaches
more than half
CARDINAL
the people on the planet. Why shouldn't we view Google as a monopoly? So, you know, I go back to the earliest days when Google, Back in
1998
DATE
and in
those earliest days
DATE
, when I heard about this like
eight
CARDINAL
search engine, the questions, why do you actually need it? And back at work and
Stanley
PERSON
, it's working with our research channel. She actually had her team put up white pages all around the conference room Was doing this comparison well provided the most
Result
NORP
most rapidly and all of a sudden you could see the wind at this google thing actually maybe we do need something new and that's been the ethos at Google since inception is just continue to innovate to make this eight never better experience for users and so if we can if we can deliver on that which is what drives people here It's really opening the world for for so many people. So, that's that's the intent. Facebook and
Twitter
PERSON
are exploring digital currency. Is your thought on the crypto market and is there a play for Google So we look at it it there's nothing to to comment on now I think we're much more interested in blockchain in the underlying technology and the implications for the business and For the way we can support our cloud customers. So, certainly a lot of effort there. There's considerable chatter in the crypto universe that web
three
CARDINAL
in the blockchain could the power of Facebook and Google and more. What do you think about the next frontier of the internet? At this point, I think there are a lot of different things ahead of us that are actually stunningly exciting that enable us to actually continue to address Needs and and requirements like I look at for example Something like health where I think blockchain will be very valuable when you think about health and health records. They're also a whole host of other areas where the data analytics that we provide are absolutely critical. Should we make excuses to our employer? Should we tell her like, if I have to head to a parent to teach her conference or take a kid to the doctor, do I tell my boss? You don't tell your boss. You've gotta get over the guilt.
You survived breast cancer. Twice. What was your biggest fear at that time and how did you overcome it? Well, the biggest fear was I wouldn't make it I remember when some someone had some interview while I was going through chemo said where do you wanna be in
5 years
DATE
and I froze cuz And I learned a couple of really important things Given breakthroughs in medical technology I learned to love the word manageable. These, this journey does become manageable, not for all cancers, but for many more cancers. And that gave me a lot of confidence talking with other survivors about it is manageable, get the best care, Just plow through it. I was just very grateful and grateful for all of the investments people have made over
the years
DATE
. But for anybody out there and I think everybody sadly will be touched by cancer other than themselves or someone they know and love. Many of these cancers are manageable and just go at it with gust. So, that's what I did. You're a mom of
three
CARDINAL
And I find that especially remarkable because I also have three sons You manage that over the course of this, you know, incredible career. How do you find that right mix of focus and free time to spend time with your family and doing the things that you love So my kids my kids give me energy. They're remarkable and I think one of the important things for me is this notion that you do have to have a mix. It's not about trying to find balance. The physics of which is really challenging. I think when people try for balance, they always feel their feeling on Cuz something's out of whack.
Metaphor
GPE
that life is like a kaleidoscope and you need to have different shaped pieces of glass and different color and sometimes one is larger than the other and what's beautiful about life is when it's constantly moving around and so That metaphor has actually been sort of an anchoring principle. Other is you have to put the kids first so like they they know that I'm I'm there you know when they need always and And I think that just making sure that you're setting the boundaries the way you need to. I would say it's much easier
today
DATE
than when I was growing up in banking. You know, we have a cubicle. There was a there was a computer room. You were anchored to the computer room.
One
CARDINAL
of the many beautiful things about going through Evolution in work is understanding that hybrid works. So how do we get rid of mom guilt? In this new work world I want to shake my mom guilt how Okay. So, even when you feel it, just say, you know what? It's an investment in my career because I can stay in this longer and be operating at a higher level. If I'm really getting the stimulus from all parts of my life. So You've gotta drop the mom guilt and when on the other side mom guilt with kids I think they get it I think they understand what we're doing and you know I'll never forget during the financial crisis at
one
CARDINAL
point I was working on
AIG
ORG
we went around the clock I came home to shower that one like right as we were landing
AIG
ORG
and my
three
CARDINAL
kids At each written me a yellow sticky note with a message on it and one of them was you know they it the essence of which was I get why you're doing this and it and they saw it as The right thing for the country. I don't need to over dramatize what it was but that's what it felt like at the time and that level of approach.
You're doing this and it and they saw it as The right thing for the country. I don't need to over dramatize what it was but that's what it felt like at the time. In that level of pride, I still have those
three
CARDINAL
stickies right by my bedside because It. I get the mom guilt. I wish there were certain elements I could could have done differently but I also see the relationship we have and they understand what it means to actually be engaged in society and doing something you care about. No mom guilt. No mom guilt. Thank Not allowed. Should we make excuses to our employers? Should we tell her like, if I have to head to a parent, teacher conference or take a kid to the doctor? Do I tell my boss? You don't tell your boss. You don't tell your boss. Guys don't tell their boss. Do not tell your boss you've gotta get over the guilt. The only way to move on from it is realize I'm a professional I do things when I when I can and it makes sense and I get it all done. I just do it on my own timeline. And I actually had a woman who emailed me So I'm gonna email you.
Five
CARDINAL
step journey Do not tell your boss. Tell your boss, you know what? I need to do certain things for myself and I, it's, I'm getting, I've, I feel guilty, doing it but I get everything done. There's no question. You are so beyond having to check in with people. Yeah. Well, thank you. Do not. We're in the middle of this so-called great resignation and people are reflecting What's your advice People in this you know big evolution You know, a huge choices ahead. Well, I think you framed it really well. I don't think it's the great resignation. I think it's the great reshuffle and people are reflecting on what do they want and how do they wanna work and how do they wanna live their lives? So, I think for all of us thinking about what is that mean for our institutions? It is about evolving the way we We work the way we interact the expectations that we have to say but I grew up in a cubicle on the
26th
ORDINAL
floor of a sky rise doesn't work And so what should we do as leaders and I think that our this generation appropriately and it's very exciting More from all of us and so it's not just in how we work but it is in what we do and I think all elements of what's the mission are you delivering on the mission is really important. Okay, so if you rapid fire questions, someone you'd love
Dinner
PERSON
with. Wow I'd love to see my parents because they passed away and
over years ago
DATE
. Favorite family ritual? Do this crazy thing that we've done for
years
DATE
which is everybody gets to pick where we travel We come up with the
five
CARDINAL
the
five
CARDINAL
different locations and then we all vote and then we get the grid and that's where we go. What's your favorite getaway? Probably I would say maybe
Iceland
GPE
was the best. That's an amazing one.
New York
GPE
or
California
GPE
? Ooh Energy from
New York
GPE
so I'm not It's like my I don't pick amongst children. So, in closing,
Google
ORG
's a massive company, multiple divisions, many bets. Where are you spending most of your time now? I was spending most of my time on your very important question about capital allocation because if it really goes to this core point Intensity I often say I don't wanna get to the
two
CARDINAL
yard line but not score so you need to make sure you're investing with the right intensity to support long term growth that's the most important area where I would say I The back of my time and then of course you have to prioritize in order to recycle to support those options what kind of discussions are you having with
Larry
PERSON
and
Sergey
PERSON
now about this next phase of
Google
ORG
. So, when they need the announcement about the role of change, they really, they were very serious about moving to this board role and they've been their amazing board members. Sandars of course Relies on them and for council where wherever, whenever, but most of the interaction is really around. What are we doing at the board level? It's been great. And you have your freedom to allocate capital as you like. I work closely. And
What are we doing at the board level? It's been great. And you have your freedom to allocate capital as you like. I work closely. Philip and Thomas and yes, we we work as a great team. So, where what's the vision for google then?
10 years from now
DATE
? You know it's fascinating to was I think I had the same reaction you did when I heard Cinder say search is the biggest moonshot and I think that continuing to find ways to be helpful to users to solve what they need wear so many people are coming online and it you know is video gonna be the
first
ORDINAL
the way they understand it's gonna be You know, search is gonna be a different type of experience so much of it's gonna be about voice,
first
ORDINAL
, and language translation. So, there's gonna, it's gonna continue to evolve. I want about for you personally, like, where will you, you know, It's been so amazing to hear about your journey and I'm just curious about your personal growth like What you feel you've accomplished in the last, you know, since you've been here and what you hope to I find that that the
Opportunity
ORG
to try new things and to invest in new things and as we think about what is that mean for each one of our areas there's I think that intellectual curiosity keeps you young and I think that continuing to learn is like your brain is like silly putty getting pulled in a lot of directions so to me it's He was learning. Report, thank you so much for joining us. It's been wonderful. It's been great to have you on campus. Come back anytime. Thank you so much for doing this. Thanks for doing that. Sorry. Not at all. You're doing well? How about you come in I have to ask is your son still mining ethereum? He and I literally were talking about it
last night
TIME
. He's like, dad, you are the one who made me give up on it. I'm like, no, no, I didn't but yeah, the thing that's good about this is I think it excites a whole new generation about technology which is which is good. Appreciate you. Well, thank you for doing it and thank you for coming down to do it. I'm ready to go From Google headquarters in
Mt. View California
FAC
this is
Bloombrook Studio
PERSON
one
CARDINAL
point
Alphabet
NORP
CEO Sundar
Pachai
LOC
. Had almost no access to a computer until college but
just years later
DATE
found himself rising through the ranks of the world's largest search engine. In
2015
DATE
it was pachai that google co founders
Larry Page
PERSON
and
Sergey Brin
PERSON
chose to run google and later alphabet
Two 1 trillion dollars
MONEY
it's
one
CARDINAL
of the most.
And later alphabet now valued it
more than two 1 trillion dollars
CARDINAL
it's one of the most powerful companies on the planet
Cinder
PERSON
, it's great to be with you
today
DATE
. Thanks for doing this. Great to be here in person. Google just hit a
two 1 trillion dollars
MONEY
market
Alphabet
ORG
. I should say. Where is the next
one 1 trillion dollars
MONEY
gonna come from? You know, all these fell you know Your market cap evaluation is an effect of the value you provide and I feel fortunate our mission is timeless You know there is more need to organise information than ever I still feel search is our biggest moonshot as a company. You know people will want radically more conversational experiences They will want what we call multi model experiences. They may speak to search. They may look at something and ask what what the information is. Being able to adapt to all that and evolve search will continue to be the biggest opportunity. We are so excited about
Beat YouTube
ORG
cloud are are hardware products
Google Play
PRODUCT
so we're building a diverset of businesses Underlaying all of it is the investments we are making in
AI
GPE
invested
100 1 billion dollars
MONEY
in
RND
ORG
in
the past 5 years
DATE
. And so applying a eye in a deep way is probably where we will create the biggest opportunity ahead.
Microsoft
ORG
is making some big acquisitions Apples anti ad tracking technology is shaking up the industry What do you make of these competitive moves? They're on the right side of history Are they? I look at the fact that There are
three 1 billion
QUANTITY
people who have access to knowledge of their fingertips. I look at the opportunity we provide. I look at the skills people are learning through
YouTube
ORG
. You know, I feel it everywhere when I go talk to people and and providing access to information and knowledge. I think we'll end up being on the right side of history as well. Your predecessor
Eric Schmidt
PERSON
told me that he feels the latest Facebook revelations are disturbing. Google also has access to massive amount Why should
half
CARDINAL
the world's population
more than half
CARDINAL
the world's Trust google to do the right thing. We are trying to do more with less data
One
CARDINAL
of the biggest changes we made was making auto delete the default setting for new user signing in and now over to uses have their data continuously being deleted. Look we rely on trust for people you know everyday when people come to Google You know they place their trust in us in vulnerable moments maybe a health issue on which they are trying to understand. Yeah there's no more important responsibility we have than doing right by that trust. You know when when we provide
Gmail
PERSON
to journalist and realize that there accounts may be under a pack by by an authority in government. I mean that's what you know motivates us to make sure be privacy be security beat trust we are doing the right thing Important role to play here I think privacy regulation is important in areas like AI regulation will be important and so I think you know those will be part of the answers as well Hey facebook fall out that
Instagram
NORP
can be toxic to teens for example
Raise
PERSON
more or new concerns for you about the impact of technology, tech addiction, algorithms,
YouTube
ORG
event, on our children, and their development and their mental health. I mean, your parent, and you also have a lot of power over how this plays out. You know, I mean, like you, you know, bringing kids up in this modern digital world or something, I think all parents are anxious about, right? So, I think, you know, it's
Spotify
GPE
,
a few years ago
DATE
when in
YouTube
ORG
, you know, we we were exposed to a set of concerns. You know, we invested, it became our number
one
CARDINAL
priority to work hard at it. The reason
YouTube
ORG
invested so much in developing
YouTube
ORG
kids as a safe destination for young children so on. Technology is gonna play a big role in helping give children the next wave of opportunities as well. So, the answer is to develop it responsibly. We have changed our balance in these areas and saying, we think about content responsibility
first
ORDINAL
. I'm
Answer is to develop it responsibly. We have changed our balance in these areas and saying we think about content responsibility
first
ORDINAL
. And then the pace of development her new features in in areas like
YouTube
ORG
and so that's how we You for a while. Facebook and
Microsoft
ORG
are all in on the Metaverse. What do you think about the metaverse what's
google
ORG
's metaphors strategy? It's always been obvious to me that computing over time will adapt to people and people adapting to computers. You know, you won't always interact with computer in a black rectangle in front of you. So just like you speak to people you see and interact computers will become more immersive they'll be there when you need it to be so Been excited about the future of
Immersive
ORG
computing ambient computing AR and we are in
Yo Meadow
PERSON
versus I think it means different things to different people. The way I think about it is evolving computing. In a immersive way with augmented reality. As part of that there will be many experiences. Some of which will be immersive Interactive virtual worlds you know We're just a matter of concept and you know, but I think this doesn't belong to any company, right? I mean, this is the evolution of And you know, the web, the internet, all of it will continue to evolve. Google was famous for its campuses where you could go and never leave. You had everything you ever wanted. Now, you've said they can be flexible. They can work from home. They can work at the office. They can be They can work remotely permanently perhaps Are you committed to really letting them do this forever? If so how does that change the future of work and society? Look where we we really embraced the fact that the future is going to be flexible. A google we've always tried to give you know a agency to our employees. But we do realize the importance of bringing people together Creatively community and collaboration that comes with it So the balance we are striking is is the notion of
three two
CARDINAL
. And but we are giving the strength of our company is we are more locations than most of the companies. So, we're giving people choice to move anywhere in the world.
4 weeks
DATE
taken work from anywhere. We were not accommodate
20%
PERCENT
of our workforce to be remote over time. So we're gonna embrace that flexibility
Forever
GPE
. Forever, yeah, and you know How many to do it? All it forces us to design better products Since people use Google Workspace to run their companies having gives us a chance to innovate and bring all that out. You know I think that is so much value in giving people more flexibility between their personal and professional lives and I think it will lead to people being happier and I think companies can be successful in that model and so we are trying to get the best of both worlds but embrace the flexibility and and And and see where where we go. How confident are you that when you look back you'll be able to say google did enough to help save We are putting so much energy and resource into it.
You grew up in
India
GPE
, you lived through droughts, water was scarce. How has that experience shaped your feelings about the urgency of stopping climate change? You know, I grew up in
Chennai
GPE
,
India
GPE
and a big part of my childhood was You know, really pretty severe water scarcity. You know, we would get water trapped in. For the streets and stand in lines and carry a few buckets of water home. There was no running water for
many years
DATE
. Ehm you know but fast forward
a few years ago
DATE
you know Chennai had one in
100 year
DATE
flood you know which was Very extremely well
Kinda
GPE
drove home.
Dad
PERSON
combined with
a few years ago
DATE
waking up to the orange skies here in the area. Seeing the look of concern on my children's faces and having to explain it you know all kind of drove home in a deeply personal way So I think it's the most defining issue we all face and And you know definitely something Motivated on working towards I remember waking up to those orange skies too and having to have that same conversation with my kids do you think the commitments at Cop
26
CARDINAL
went far enough? You know, encouraged by many things. You know, we have to tip our hat to the people who are working super hard The issues and the trade offs Genuinely difficult, you know, you have to Keep the economy scrolling. You know, really matters and but at the same time, it's a pretty severe urgent issue. Some may increase by the progress. I think it builds on the
Paris
GPE
agreement so I can see the forward progress. There is the deep anxiety that he told me not be enough But you know we have to be optimistic and keep pushing
Google
ORG
has set some aggressive targets to run entirely on clean energy to be the
first
ORDINAL
tech giant to do so
24 hours
TIME
a day How confident are you that when you look back on this time let's say
a decade from now
DATE
you'll be able to say google did enough to help save the We are putting so much energy and resource into it. Always been kind of a founding value for us. We've been carbon neutral since
2007
DATE
. Have you been matching our energy conception with renewable energy over
the past few years
DATE
? So this, you know, we are not pushing. It's a moonshot to be 24/7/ carbon free. That means every search you do, every email you send, that we can do it carbon free. We were at
61%
PERCENT
in
2019
DATE
. The number is now
67%
PERCENT
We have set our goals to be
100%
PERCENT
by
2030
DATE
And to do it globally that means we have to solve new things which we haven't done before. When done solar alone won't be enough. We just started geothermal in
Nevada
GPE
. We will be investing in newer technology including carbon capture etcetera over time. So that's what excites me. Technology company at heart. So, There are many answers to this problem. Some of it is that we are going to have to innovate our way out of it. And you know we wanna push as hard as possible in doing that. Our Bloomberg New Economy Forum is happening
this year
DATE
in
Singapore
GPE
and
the Asia Pacific region
LOC
is one of
Fastest
ORG
growing internet economies on the planet. Where do you see the most room, the most opportunity for google to grow there? You know it's such AA Time frame you know I'm glad you're focused on the region it's the most vibrant region we see it's
our 20th year
DATE
since we opened our office in
Tokyo
GPE
it was the
first
ORDINAL
office
The Bay Area
LOC
You have
two and a half
DATE
one
1 billion
CARDINAL
people on the internet. Any areas in which they are they're leap frogging trans which are here and embracing the future digital payments is a great example. So many of our products originated from
APA
ORG
.
Leave frogging transwitch are here and embracing the future digital payments is a great example. So many of our products originated from
Apac Google Maps Google
ORG
page A lot of the our journey to bring computing to more people is is playing out in
Asia
LOC
as well. I am excited about also the work we are doing through cloud because the There are rapidly transforming themselves digitally. So, a chance to provide that is something. Very exciting for us. Super dynamic region. I feel like we are learning as Google being in the region and so I think it'll transform
the first 10 years
DATE
I would have said we took products here and brought a tape pack
Last few years
DATE
we are beginning to build things there and some of our future global products will be a pack
first
ORDINAL
. And rest of the world later. Can't talk about
eight
CARDINAL
pack without talking about
China
GPE
and you're facing stiff competition from
Chinese
NORP
tech giants there and beyond what should
US
GPE
policy makers know about competing with
China
GPE
You know there's a Lot of conversations about
US
GPE
and
China
GPE
. The competition is fierce. When you look at areas like
AI
GPE
and
quantum
ORG
computing where we are investing a lot. You know the
Chinese
NORP
companies are neck to neck What I I think about you know I was encouraged by the news coming out of
Glasgow
PERSON
about the
China
GPE
agreement on planet. To me while we talk about all the all the areas where we are competing Some of the biggest areas which are a common challenges for all of humanity. The pandemic was
one
CARDINAL
AI
GPE
and
AI
GPE
safety over time will be shared
one
CARDINAL
obviously sustainably is So I think these are all areas in which the countries can come together and so I think that's the way by which we think about You know when we compete on the internet and there may be different versions of how the internet plays out so I see opportunities both sides. What are the chances that Google search will ever come back to
China
GPE
? Or that Google cloud? Would ever come to
China
GPE
? Yeah, today we don't provide most of our signed in services in
China
GPE
and I don't see that changing. But you know, there are Ways as I said AI or sustainability I didn't know the opportunities for us to work together. We will support multinational companies which are presents everywhere and so maybe there are opportunities Work that way as well. Is advancing at an astonishing rate and it is hard to understand sometimes what this really means in concrete terms how will our lives look different? Let's say
10 years from now
DATE
as a result of You know, done correctly, you know In many ways it's going to be helpful to you Take it for granted
Today
DATE
for example in
India
GPE
. Or
one third
CARDINAL
of the queries on many phones come through voice. People take for granted you can do it. So over time you'll expect to speak and be able to understand any language on in the world. And you know, those are all ways. It's gonna make it better. You may go to a doctor's office. Ehm go through a scan and the system may be prioritizing for the radiologist. So that they don't miss some important things. Maybe giving them a
second
ORDINAL
opinion. You know so these are all ways in which you do seamlessly start playing a role and I think we'll We'll see if it's a path. Correctly and there are concerns There are fears that
AI
ORG
will replic The worst of society even under googles on roof from your own researchers. Scares you most about
AI
GPE
. What keeps you up at
night
TIME
? Founding we are working on as humanity And anytime you're developing technology, there is a dual site to it. Being a journey of humanities, harnessing The benefits while minimizing the downsides The good thing with
AI
ORG
is both going to take time. I think I've seen more focus on the downsides early on than most of the technology we've developed. So, in some ways, I'm encouraged by how much concern there is. And you're right even within Google You know, you know, people think about it deeply. We publish a lot of research that are I think it's more important that there are outside academic institution, governments, nonprofits, looking at this issue as well. So, I think it's It it'll be
There are I think it's more important that there are outside academic institution, governments, nonprofits, looking at this issue as well. So, I think it's It it'll it'll be an issue which you'll have a lot of attention which gives me lot of comfort as well. You said you'd pick up some new hobbies in the pandemic. What did you start? Yeah, cooking pizza, just letting you cook which I was never good at. I've got a little bit better. You have presided over Google through massive social movements that reverberated in and outside the company. What have you learned as CEO since the walkout? For me, you know, It was a moment I think it changed the company for the better you know we've always been committed it gave us an insight on what more we could do we undertook deep commitments The biggest you know overall and diversity and inclusion I think If your commented and you actually put in the effort behind it. You can make a difference. Now you've stated clear goals. We're on track to meet this meet those goals. It forced us to think about new answers. So, for example You know tech companies used to talk about the pipeline problem. But you we are now going to places where the talent is we're working much harder So, going to
Atlanta
GPE
, going to
DC
GPE
, going to
Chicago
GPE
, going to
New York
GPE
. That's improving our diversity and representation at all levels. The war for talent is even more competitive now in this new world
Elon Musk
PERSON
has said big tech is a place where talent goes to die. How do you respond to that? Okay I look at the fact that you know we are looking to hire
30 1000
CARDINAL
people
next year
DATE
I look at the impact we have on many people coming and working In the latest cutting edge things and many people come in, people leave
Google
ORG
, we are proud of people who have left google that are, I think that are
2000
CARDINAL
companies that have been started by
Umi College Supers
ORG
. I'm equally proud of that, right? I think we are
one
CARDINAL
part of a big big system You know I I think I think I'm proud of the role we play in bringing in people and the impact they have over time and outside world. Alright, that's most of the heavy stuff out of the way. We're gonna do some rapid fire just to get to know you a little bit better. You said you'd pick up some new hobbies in the Pandemic. What did you start Hi you know Pizza. We are cooking pizza. Just letting the cook which I was never good at. I've got an little bit better. Cricket or soccer slash football Wow stop bored please don't make it use Square game or
Ted Lasso
PERSON
.
Soccer slash football. Wow, stuff. Please don't make it too Square game or
Ted Lasso
PERSON
? I watched both Much more calm and so I'd rather take Teblaso over school games any day. I know you're a voricious reader What's the last good book that you read? I've been on a podcast bench so a lot more podcasts than books nowadays.
Videos
ORG
you watch on
YouTube
ORG
with your kids Lot of music videos, music videos, this whole notion were creators are watching other things and commenting on it. It's a really into and I've kind of gotten used to it now. So, you know, watching another games, it's about some phenomenon. Screen time policy that's worked for you as a parent. You know I've kind of given agency to my kids. The only thing I tell them is that I can look at their digital well being. Once in a while with them. And so how do you do that? I asked him to show it to me and they show it on their phone. So, You know, so that that's pretty much the only thing. So, beyond that you know, it's agency and and you know, talking to them about it and making sure we are spending time doing other things. And make sure they develop That's right. Metaverse or real world Done correctly. You know, you should you should feel it feel the need to make a choice. You know, you always want to be present in the real world. And when you feel the need to do something, You wanna do that but you know I do think presents and The realness of the real world will end up mapping for humans Long time. Do you own any crypto? I wish I I did I doubled in it but you know in and out. In and out okay. How many times a week do you talk to them You know I talked to them regularly You know, it it kind of absent flows. You know, I'm so, there are times we get excited about something and we spend a lot of time talking it through but it depends on You know, what would I need? A piece of advice you wish you had in your 20s? Piece of advice you wish you had in your
40s
DATE
. Our 20s would be you know being patient you know I think when you know young you're very impatient which is a great thing. But sometimes you do amazing things by slowing down and being really focused and doing it over a period of time. And so I would advice the you know the younger version of me to be more patient. Maybe at 40 I would say you know when I look at climbing. You know I want $one for be impatient. So you know I feel like when there's an urgency to at something and in the world needs to be impatient. So that's not why I would give to a older version of me. Personally wrestle with the decisions that you have to make. And how much longer do you see yourself being the CEO of alphabet not just alphabet but also Google Yeah Look on the
first
ORDINAL
one there are moments we all have to make tough decisions and you know and some decisions may on me and But I it's a privilege to do it. I have very good people helping me think things through. So, adding a combination makes it all you know, fine. On a
second
ORDINAL
thing I I'm Hey I'm so energized by the things we need to do you know I I didn't have much access to computing growing up it changed my life a lot the
one
CARDINAL
laptop per child goal really motivated me to come into technology and and when I look at
last week
DATE
as launching a affordable smartphone in
India
GPE
The chance to bring
the next one 1 billion
DATE
users in
Asia
LOC
and in
Africa
LOC
online. That gives me a lot of energy. We'll be watching from afar. Thank you so much for joining us. Thank you. Wish to be here. However you get your new
Blueberg
PERSON
radio. Hey Facebook
Jeff Bezos
PERSON
shocked the world when he stepped down his
EO
ORG
of amazon let's shocking what's his choice for successor
Multi
PERSON
one 1 billion dollars
MONEY
cloud business
Amazon
ORG
web services a moonshot that help transform
Amazon
ORG
into not just e-commerce but enterprise juggernaut Jassie then needed to find his own successor tapping a former colleague who helped grow AWS in
its earlyest days
DATE
but had since left to run
Seattle
GPE
software giant tap low His job to continue the reinvention of
AWS
ORG
and in turn
Amazon
ORG
. Joining me on this edition of
Bloomberg Studio 100
ORG
. New AWS CEO
Adam Solipski
PERSON
You work for AWS for
11 years
DATE
and then went on to become CEO of
Tablo
ORG
software in
2016
DATE
then you get a call from
Amazon
ORG
to come back and run
AWS
ORG
as CEO Well I was having a
one
CARDINAL
on one at at my prior company and my
Apple
ORG
news alerts went off like everybody else has did and to
Jeff Bezos
PERSON
has taken on a new role and
Andy Jassie's
PERSON
taking The the CEO role of of
Amazon
ORG
And of course
Sandy
PERSON
and I worked shoulder to shoulder
about 20 feet
QUANTITY
apart for
11 years
DATE
so of course I reached out and congratulated him and we started talking and you know the conversation turned into some of the And next thing I know little while later here I am back at
Amazon
ORG
absolutely delighted and honored to be the CEO of AWS and helping to shepherd this this amazing business for our customers. In that process did you talk to
Jeff
PERSON
as well? The idea of course was you know the
AWS
ORG
business best and of course it's taken on the CEO role but yeah there was you know contact as you might expect with small handful of other people. So what did
Andy
PERSON
tell you he wanted in the next chapter for
AWS
ORG
?
Andy
PERSON
reminded me not that I need a reminder but that it has really still day one For AWS and for our customers it is still so early in this business and we shouldn't think that just because the business has grown rapidly or just because we're currently the leader in the in the cloud That it's anything close to mature. And so he really reminded me that we have to stay hungry, innovate as quickly as we ever have done in the past. You're into the job. Mm hmm. What changed while you were gone? That surprised you Why I think that so many more customers have have really adopted the clad and really decided that they're they're going all in. So, I mean it was a pretty decent size business when I left but it's really grown and the the customer base is really expanded and so now we have a very Relationships at the CEO level, the
CIO
ORG
level, across every country, Industry, every use case, and we're regularly interacting with The most senior people at their client organizations. So, you were working at Real Networks? Yes. In the early
2000
DATE
's and I understand you were offered a job at AWS without even really knowing what it was. I guess AWS was in stealth mode. Well, it was very secret. So, it was it was it The company didn't wanna talk too much about it but of course, you know, we had to talk a certain amount about it. So, the call I got when something like we have this initiative to turn the guts of amazon inside out and expose it to other people. And it sounded intrigue you know that I confess I didn't fully understand what that was all about so I came in and started talking to
Andy
PERSON
and few of the other senior leaders and eventually to
Jeff
PERSON
and I I would have to say that you even by the time I took the job I I thought I'm I'm mostly understand what they're talking about and it sounds like a good idea and and I'm in but I also was like well you know we'll just have to see how it goes and and and you know
Amazon
ORG
's a big big place and so I think we've got a
But I also was like, well, you know, we'll just have to see how it goes and and and you know,
Amazon
ORG
's a big big place and so I think we got a lot of lot of intent to succeed here and that's the thing that impressed me was
Amazon
ORG
really had the the desire and the intent and the belief that this could be a really good business. AWS comes Out of stealth mode and is the
first
ORDINAL
to market with a cloud infrastructure service in
2006
DATE
. How important was that
first
ORDINAL
start? And and and do you think
AWS
ORG
still has an advantage
today
DATE
? Because I think the the the time to market advantage that we had Probably, honestly,
5 to 7 years
DATE
. Start before other companies really started to take this seriously was an enormous frankly it was just one of the biggest things that happened to us in
the early years
DATE
because at the beginning a lot of people didn't get it I would get asked a lot at
2006
DATE
so what is this have to do with selling books And well, I didn't have to slide with kind of a pile of books on it and a question mark next to it and and the answer was it has nothing to do with selling books but the technology which enables us to sell books Being global being at a massive scale being secure being low cost being highly performed. All that technology has everything to do with offering these types of services externally. No AWS isn't a scrappy startup anymore and you do have big rivals even though AW Still the leader
Microsoft
ORG
in
Google
ORG
art. Big rivals. How do you make sure that being big doesn't slow you down? Oh, it's a great question because we we are currently the leader and yeah, I mean, depending on which being a
third
ORDINAL
party, You're lucky we're probably a little bit more than twice as big as as as number
two
CARDINAL
It's really important to continue to act as if you know we're in search and to be insurgence and not to start to act like incumbents and I like to talk about actually managing the business. We want our senior leaders to be managing product and managing customers. And I think as you get bigger and you put more and Layers into your company it's it's all too frequent the extreme managing You start managing ratios and percentages and growth and I think it's it's a real disease if you if you stray away from really focusing at a deep way on the product you're building and in a deep way on what your customers are telling you Are we trying to organize both with our structure as well as just with with our culture and what we choose to focus on. I'm really making sure that everybody is thinking about one or both of those
two
CARDINAL
things. Product and customers. And if you keep even the most senior leaders engaged that level then all send you you maintain the urgency and you keep acting like an insurgent. We gotta feel that urge
Every day
DATE
. So, keep acting like an insurgent. That's the motto. Absolutely. And and build a culture that allows you to. It's
one
CARDINAL
thing to say it but it's easy to say it but it's much harder to put in place enabling mechanisms that enable you to do so. We focus a lot of effort on those mechanisms. Now, Think the cloud keeps getting bigger and that
AWS
ORG
and
Microsoft
ORG
and
Google
ORG
just get bigger pieces of an ever expanding pie or at some point does it become a oh some game and that fight for market share becomes more brutal and more bloody. This is very large market segment and if you look at global IT spend it's it's in
the trillions of dollars
MONEY
I've seen estimates like
three 1 trillion dollars
MONEY
it doesn't really matter how many trillions it is it's very very large and we've always believe that this was too good a market segment opportunity for the really to only be one winner and sure enough if you've seen rob Competition emerge and and we all compete vigorously but it is the
second
ORDINAL
is just growing so rapidly that I think really for us we believe that you know the winning business strategy for a long time to come and I would maintain forever is to folks not on the competitors but to focus maniaically on customers and wake up everyday
Understanding
ORG
exactly what it is that they need us to build next and then Backwards from there. Back internally to how can we build those things? If we, if we do the best job at building the most quickly, the things that are most important for our customers, then, I'm really not worried about what the competitors would do. You worked
10 feet
QUANTITY
away from
Andy Jassie
PERSON
in
the early days
DATE
tell us something about the
Amazon
ORG
CEO that no one knows but you.
Worked
10 feet
QUANTITY
away from
Andy Jassie
PERSON
in
the early days
DATE
tell us something about the
Amazon
ORG
CEO that no one knows but you. You're gonna get me in trouble, aren't you? You worked
10 feet
QUANTITY
away from
Andy Jassie
PERSON
in
the early days
DATE
tell us something about the
Amazon
ORG
CEO that no one knows but you. You're gonna get me in trouble, aren't you? Where has
Andy
PERSON
coming from
New York
GPE
has this fascination I don't understand with that with
New York
GPE
sports team so I've had to endure that for that for a lot of years
New Yorkers
NORP
yeah so what are you gonna do oh dawg he's you know he's he's I think come come to adopt you know some of the
Seattle
GPE
teams particularly the new hockey team the Can hear. As he should exactly. So how do you expect
Andy
PERSON
will be different from
Jeff
PERSON
or how has
Andy
PERSON
already been different from
Jeff
PERSON
What I think you know we're all different as leaders. I think it's all important that we it's it's important that we all bring our own stamp to it and and operate within ourselves. I don't think I would be very good
Andy
PERSON
. I don't wanna presume but I would assume that
Andy
PERSON
wouldn't be a great chef cuz you know
Jeff
PERSON
,
Jeff
PERSON
,
Andy
PERSON
, Sandy, And I miss so I think that
Andy
PERSON
was certainly bringing a great depth of of experience for me of
US
GPE
which is you know one important part of the business and will having operated that business for so long and I expect that it'll also give him an opportunity though he was involved in other parts of
Amazon
ORG
certainly For for a number of
years
DATE
we'll be able to bring a fresh perspective to the whole company just as I hope to bring to AWS and I think that fresh perspective is is often helpful I think just the mirror act of change is is useful for for the business for customers from employees and just to shake things up a little bit so I I think just Fresh perspective. Will you be different from
Andy
PERSON
Well I think that the the world around us is changing so so much that we're we're gonna have to be different. It doesn't matter what we did
yesterday
DATE
and right after I joined we actually added
two
CARDINAL
new leadership principles which is very exciting. One's around striving to be earth's best employer And the
second
ORDINAL
around focusing on the fact that that success and scale bring broad responsibility and those are things about which I personally am very passionate and so I really personally look forward to digging in and helping the company to figure out what are those things that we have to figure out where can we innovate to to be earth's Employer and then also to figure out externally what can we do to to really be great citizens of our local communities to be great citizens of our national communities and to be a great citizens of
And then also to figure out externally what can we do to to really be great citizens of our local communities to be great citizens of our national communities and to be great citizens of of the global community and I'm I'm I care a lot about Things as a lot of other people do here but I plan to put a good amount of energy and time and focus and hopefully help
Amazon
ORG
innovate all of those areas. How closely do you work with
Andy
PERSON
day to day? Does he, you know, regularly weigh in on AWS decisions or not? He's he he's got AA pretty broad scope of things to worry about now so he he's got a pretty a pretty intense day job I believe so he's really focused across the company as you would expect him to be but Being said obviously
AWS
ORG
remains an important part of
Amazon
ORG
and so we touch base regularly but in person or you know via email just on the most important things going on in the business. Does
Jeff
PERSON
ever weigh in on
AWS
ORG
decisions? Yes, I mean really from the beginning.
Jeff
PERSON
was involved at the very very beginning. It's some of the most fundamental decisions What does the detail page look like obviously over time The business crew and but at this
Jeff
PERSON
was always you know available when we needed him and I certainly anticipate that it'll be the same going forward. So is he still available now? Priorities are. Sure. Well, I'll let let Jeff speak to Zone priorities but but certainly
Jeff
PERSON
has been available when for example we've Our our annual planning cycle as many companies have and it's been great to have have
Jeff
PERSON
did you win on really in where we're heading for
the next year
DATE
and beyond and to just make sure it's easy to get focused on the details of the business and it's it's great to have a multiple Can help you pick your eyes up a little bit. No, you joined AWS in the middle of a pandemic. You came back to AWS in the middle of a pandemic. That's hopefully moving into the rear view mirror.
Maderna
GPE
is
one
CARDINAL
of
AWS
ORG
's biggest customers. If it weren't for the cloud, if it weren't for
AWS
ORG
, would we have had a vaccine as quickly as we did? I've gotta tell you mys but it's been an absolute privilege to for us to work with
Maderna
GPE
because what they're doing obviously is literally lifesaving and they've been so innovative and so creative. So,
Maderna
GPE
took a drug development process to get to the To a vaccine candidate. That process would typically have taken of
20 months
DATE
and doing that on
AWS
ORG
and conjunction with all the the innovation on their side. Reduce that
20 months to 42 days
DATE
.
42 days
DATE
to get the the the vaccine
Canada
GPE
the mRNA vaccine candidate for for COVID-19. Those Hey On on running multiple parts of modern on
AWS
ORG
. So, if you look at the drug design part, they had their their drug design studio, running on
AWS
ORG
, all the way to manufacturing, with of the new digitized manufacturing that they call their their digital manufacturing platform. So, it's really end to end and the ability to use Of amounts of resources and to pic the exact you know type of of service and capability for for for each part of the job and and and truly bring the full set of resources to bear. In addition to not having to focus on the idea and the infrastructure and the technology and rather letting you know
Moderna
PERSON
focus on on the all important job of drug discover So, working in partnership it was just magnificent to to see what that accomplished. Since you joined
AWS
ORG
, the number of long time AWFS leaders have moved on. To
Microsoft
ORG
, to stripe, to tablet, does that concern you? Well, actually retention that has has been very good. If you let you mention The senior leaders if if you look at the the VP plus ranks the VP and above ranks at
Amazon
ORG
Average
10 years
DATE
is over
a decade
DATE
. Over
10 years
DATE
. So that's actually very very strong retention. So of course yeah you're always going to have some love of people coming and people going and at the end of the day that's actually healthy for the business. You want new perspectives to come in. Of course in the right proportion.
Amazon
ORG
has opened an investigation after Employees supported a petition Claiming a culture of discrimination, harassment, bullying, and bias. What's the Of this. Are incredibly focused and I personally believe it's incredibly important to really have a
Meant bullying and bias what's the status of this What we are incredibly focused and I personally believe it's incredibly important to really have AAAA very diverse you know inclusive and equivalent And we're going to Sure that whatever it takes that we've got that. So, we believe that we're really doing a lot of things to to deliver on that A lot of innovative efforts around bringing a diverse workforce which we have to have both because we're gonna serve our customers best. They're diverse. We have to match that diversity and also just believe it's our responsibility and it's the right thing to do. Yeah, anytime there is any possibility that things are not something is knock on the way we To we're gonna investigate it thoroughly that's what we're in the middle of doing in this case and and we'll make sure that we're operating in a way that's consistent with our values and and that's that's always the only goal. If you could rewind to the early
2000
DATE
's the earliest days of of
AWS
ORG
is there anything you would have done differently to Building inclusive culture to start with a more inclusive culture To make sure that it didn't become a you know Boys club. Why I I I don't think that's what we have. I think that we do have a really Exciting innovation led and inclusive culture And that being said, these are hard problems. You know, we, I think we've done lot but we we are nowhere close to where we need to be. We're gonna be restless and dissatisfied with our our progress on
DE
ORG
and I just, as we are with every other part of our part of our business.
Mark Zuckerberg
PERSON
is making a big bet on the Metaverse. How big do you think it's gonna be? Such an interesting sentence. The
Metaverse
PERSON
is real.
AWS
ORG
has the biggest trove of sensitive corporate data. In the world i'm curious how you think about the balance between data and privacy and you know freedom and civil liberties in the modern era. I mean there are governments. There are nation states around the world that want that information. Hackers and criminals want that information. Very clear to start with that Is security. We often say security is job oh. It was on the the the first page of our of our operating plan pretty much
every year
DATE
.
Every year
DATE
that I can remember. But what about when governments request that information? So. Subpoena that information. Sure. Well, Very clear that our customers data is their data. So, the data belongs to our customers. So, not everybody operates that way. We we are not going to look at customers data. We are not going to compete against our customers using their data. Is there data? Furthermore we have all sorts of architectural best practices that our customers should be and and are using for any sense of
Furthermore we have all sorts of architectural best practices that our customers should be and and are using for any sensitive data. And and so a lot of that really relies around encryption And so we've got a lot of different encryption capabilities so that any sensitive data and which could leak for any reason a beer to a government beer to a hacker beer to anyone else any form of of security breach that it's encrypted in useless to anybody else. Give them the the Encryption solutions that we that we provide. It's actually, you know, very doable and powerful for our customers to to safeguard their data that way.
Mark Zuckerberg
PERSON
. Is AWS gonna have a role in the
Metaverse
PRODUCT
? I think idea but yes already has a big role on the Metaverse. So, I think the cloud enables the
Metaver
PERSON
. So, if you, if you think about all of the computer capacity, all of the storage, all of the machine learning, which is in required to create, you know, compelling, a delightful end user experiences in Reverse. A lot of that is ready
today
DATE
running on
AWS
ORG
. So, if you take epic games for example. So, epic runs Fortnite, you know, massively popular game,
350 1 million
QUANTITY
users worldwide and epic runs almost everything on AWS from back end. Servers to the
Athletics
ORG
and and everything in between so I think that's a great example of the of the netters at work and all that's happening
today
DATE
on
AWS
ORG
and we anticipate that's only gonna grow really rapidly in the future. How big do you think it's gonna be? It's such an interesting sentence. The
Metaverse
PERSON
is real. It's virtual at the same time. I think that if if we continue to do do what we've always done which is to provide a technology platform that allows organizations to transform then these gaming and entertainment and social media and other other companies will be able to do what they do best which is to focus on innovating up a
half
CARDINAL
of their end users and I That the Metaverse and many other areas will will will be rich with So this next conversation we'll have will happen in the spheres in the Metaverse that that
Next
ORG
meet. Alright see you there now I know that climate change you know and stopping climate change and your data center foot A big passion of yours. How fast will
Amazon
ORG
's data centers get to carbon neutral
Amazon
ORG
is already the largest purchaser of renewable energy in the world. And we're we intend to be
100%
PERCENT
renewable energy by
the year 2025
DATE
. We'd originally said
2030
DATE
. We actually accelerated that by
5 years to 2025
DATE
. That's part of our our broader climate pledge that
Amazon
ORG
created and to which we've now gotten
200
CARDINAL
other organizations to sign on to And the the climate pledges to be that nets are a carbon by
2040 10 years
DATE
ahead of the the
Paris Accord
ORG
target. So, we we know how to do some of that, other part are gonna require invention but we really look forward to it and I think it's it's it's it's one of the most Things we can do for that for our generation.
Amazon
ORG
counts some of the biggest oil and gas producers as it's customers. Isn't that a contradiction? Should you be kicking them off your platforms? Those customers are trying to get to sustainable business models which rely on on a new energy sources and So many of those customers are figuring out how do they get to win how do they get to solar how do they get into batteries New business models relying on renewable energy and I think rather than abandoning them and having them maybe dig in more on on fossil fuels. If we can enable them to to move faster, to be more innovative, and to be more agile and figuring out new business models, new tactical solutions, experi Failing fast and moving on to the next next idea then the whole world will get to to the renewal binergy solutions that we need. It'll be the
first
ORDINAL
time that
Andy Jessie
PERSON
is not giving the keynote. You will be Give us a preview what can we expect to hear? Exciting announcements. So, I I think across our service portfolio, you'll see that. We have a lot of exciting partner announcements.
Back to here. Exciting announcements. So, I I think across our service portfolio, you'll see that. We have a lot of exciting partner announcements with partner
econom
PERSON
still remains to
this day
DATE
. So important to what
AWS
ORG
is doing and we have some great announcements lined up for that. And then I I think people are gonna wanna see that we're making it And easier for them to consume the cloud and to work with
AWS
ORG
and so we're gonna continue to in addition to building more powerful basic capabilities. We're gonna continue to make it easier and easier in a variety of ways to interact with
AWS
ORG
.
Adam Salivski
PERSON
, CEO of
AWS
ORG
, thank you so much for joining us. To deliver what you need when you need it now you can simply type phrases in everyday
English
LANGUAGE
in the command line Compare financials What do you want to know today Ask a question or visit search go to find answers now. Alright, so here we are one of the elephants. Since this very first
YouTube
ORG
video was uploaded
16 years ago
DATE
, the world's most popular video network has exploded to
more than two 1 billion
QUANTITY
users in the farthest corners of the planet. Now, raking in
billions of dollars
MONEY
every year. Pop culture. And kid culture. Amplifying some of the brightest and sometimes darkest traits in all of us while
YouTube
ORG
has elevated a generation of creators and educated and entertained generations of viewers it's fought misinformation terrorism racism and violence many clicks along the way lately
YouTube
ORG
's biggest battles are
Misinformation
ORG
and keeping the platform safe for kids and teens on this edition of
Bloombrook Studio
ORG
100
CARDINAL
. We rewind to talk about where
YouTube
ORG
has been and fast forward to where it's going next with one of the
Susan Wijitski
PERSON
. It's been
5 years
DATE
since we last talked On camera. Yes. And we have a new president. We are weathering a pandemic. The most watched video on
YouTube
ORG
is
Baby
ORG
shark. So a lot's changed since
2016
DATE
How do you feel about YouTube 2021 versus I feel good about it. It's definitely been a while.
Since
2016
DATE
How do you feel about YouTube 2021 versus I feel good about it. It's definitely been a while and in technology, things move so quickly. So, a lot of things have changed since
2016
CARDINAL
Responsibility And that's been a really big focus for us. And it would weather through a pandemic and a lot of hard challenges but overall I'm feeling really good. You've been a google for
20 plus years
DATE
going all the way back to
Larry
PERSON
and
Sergey
PERSON
. In the garage, you've been the CEO of
YouTube
ORG
for
seven plus years
DATE
. How has Your job changed in that time. Since I joined being the CEO of
YouTube
ORG
, I would say one of the biggest things that has changed certainly has just been maybe the recognition of the importance of digital video. So, when I
first
ORDINAL
joined, actually a lot of people would say, oh, like, why did you join? I was running ads beforehand and that was that's been the main way Google generates revenue and so a lot of people said like why did you leave that and go to
YouTube
ORG
but I always believed in digital video Believe that now we see that the world also believes we've seen a lot of adoption of digital video and the benefits of that can have. You've championed this diversification strategy at
YouTube
ORG
since you started. What's working and what's not working? Well, our main way of generating revenue is from advertising. But we also have really grown our subscription revenue Many different reasons. So, that has enabled our users to have experience where they can have music,
YouTube
ORG
music, and premium. We just announced the
50 1 million
QUANTITY
Example generate revenue with channel subscriptions they may sell merchandise We also have things like digital goods, so like super chat, super thanks, and so with basically diversify the number of ways that that are ecosystem is generating revenue. The original tagline for
YouTube
ORG
was broadcaster yourself. Concept has exploded. You have ordinary people in the spotlight. When they grow up, they want to be an influencer. They want to be a
YouTube
ORG
star or a
YouTube
ORG
What do you see as the future of the creator economy I see a lot of possibility with the creator economy and because I see that many people have a lot of interest and they have a lot to offer
Beforehand
NORP
they went to been able to have With the world and so there's so many people depending upon what their talent or their interest is whether it's a sport or cooking or gaming or hairstyles that people have come out and really been able to share that and create a lot of jobs. So, we actually see like our we actually saw
35%
PERCENT
increase in the number of creators that are generating
six
CARDINAL
figure income out of
YouTube
ORG
. And in
the last year
DATE
and so that's just an example of like how the creator economy is continuing to grow. Well, and for
years
DATE
,
YouTube
ORG
was the only company that actually paid Creators but now a lot of companies are paying creators in Facebook and
Instagram
NORP
snap TikTok You see that Competition playing out who wins Well, it is a competitive landscape and in general, I'm competition's good. It makes everyone work harder and that's good. I mean we look at creators and we say they're gonna come to us if we do the best job and creators come to us looking basically for fame and fortune like how can I I have a skill or I have a talent something I wanna share with the world like and
YouTube
ORG
can help that be no it can help them provide that Really hard to make sure that we deliver that for our creators.
A year ago
DATE
during
the Black Lives Matter
EVENT
protest,
YouTube
ORG
made big commitments to black creators in particular. What's been the progress there and The potential for
YouTube
ORG
to be used as a tool for social justice. Also we'd made an announcement that we were gonna do
100 1 million
MONEY
And
Youtube
ORG
the potential for
YouTube
ORG
to be used as a tool for social justice Also we've made an announcement that we are gonna do
100 1 million dollars
MONEY
black voices fund and so we're continuing to develop content there but one of the others and and I I think there'll be a there's been a lot of great content that's come out and we'll certainly see more. But you know you because
YouTube
ORG
doesn't have any gatekeepers like you can just post and Become a creator we have seen a lot of people of different backgrounds and underrepresented backgrounds become creators and have audiences we never really measured it beforehand cuz we didn't have a way and so one of the things that we've done is within with enabled creators to now tell us what backgrounds they they So we can have a better understanding of how they're doing on our pop farm. Let's talk about
YouTube
ORG
shorts. It seems to be a top priority. Yeah. We all know that
TikTok
ORG
is on the rise. How important are you to shorts to the platform to the company? So
YouTube
ORG
for it's very important. We see that creators and users wanna watch Uploaded to YouTube me at the zoo with an
18 second
TIME
video so is it a short form video
Two
CARDINAL
more is just enabling those to be found and then a lot of the creation tools and so bringing a lot more mobile creation is really important for us going forward. Did you notice that viewing time was being lost to ticktock? Did you see that trend? And do you see
TikTok
ORG
as a sort of existential threat? Many competitors in this space. Where's our opportunity? We're always looking around, seeing what our competitors are doing, and if they're doing something that we think would be good for our users and our creators, we're also gonna look at how we can improve our our own economy, create our economy, and what's good for our users. I think a lot of people, you know, we talk about vaccine hesitancy and they blame social media. They say
YouTube
ORG
's not doing enough.
One
CARDINAL
of the big things for us is to continue to work with public health experts to get their messages across. Mama is tired. You have to feed your creativity. Don't this tree house. At this point
YouTube
ORG
has become a hub for discovery for Curiosities, right? That comes with a lot of inspiration but also with misinform When it comes to vaccines, vaccine hesitancy, videos that cause a public health risk Where do you wanna see
YouTube
ORG
do better? We've taken responsibility
When it comes to vaccines vaccine hesitancy videos that cause a public health risk Where do you wanna see
YouTube
ORG
do better? We've taken responsibility So
first
ORDINAL
of all we wanna make sure that if there's information that violates our policies we came up with
10
CARDINAL
different palsies around COVID then if that's a violation of policies then that's something that we'll remove. We removed over a
one 1 million
QUANTITY
videos associated with COVID but we also wanna make sure that we're rais Information that we think would be that will come from trusted and authoritative sources and we've really been able to do that. I think a lot of people, you know, we talk about vaccine hesitancy and they blame social media. They say
YouTube
ORG
's not doing enough. You know, how do you respond to that? Yeah, I mean, I think, well,
first
ORDINAL
of all, we're always learning. I just, just to be fair, like we're always thinking How can we do better? We're looking at the feedback and Public health experts. Across the board and you know, I think one of the big things for us is to continue to work with public health experts, to understand, you know, what are the ways that we can partner with them to get their messages across. And I really believe that that is something that's really changed is the the is The evolution of bringing
Musicians
ORG
, experts talking about public health. We never would have seen that before the pandemic. How much do you internalize the criticism of of
YouTube
ORG
's content? Do you take it personally and and and how does that influence the decisions that you make us to eat? I wanna be doing the right thing and I I care about that. I The next generation and by by everyone today and so I really have put a lot of time and effort to make sure that we are acting responsibly and there's That we think could lead to some kind of real world harm. And so I'll make sure I think whenever you're in a position like that there's gonna be a lot of criticism Our goal is just to continue to you know talk to experts and evolve. And how do you make decisions in those tough moments? Where it's a tough call like how much of it is making a decision or leading by consensus and how much does it come down to you? The goal is that when we have tough decisions they're not we're not they are like improvising in some way. Is it a violation or not a violation and if it seems like there's some set of issues with the that we have in the platform we're gonna go back to experts and then reevaluate is it should we be making changes to the our policies
YouTube
ORG
helped keep a Not children, connected, educated, entertained, distracted, through the pandemic. What have you learned from that experience and what do you see as the potential future of
YouTube
ORG
as a tool for learning? As a tool in schools When I meet people and they find out them to see of
YouTube
ORG
almost always they tell me about something they learned on
YouTube
ORG
or someone that they're something they're family member alert so I see that as being a very significant part of
YouTube
ORG
We had people who had to also just learn a lot of skills that they hadn't learn beforehand but probably the biggest thing that we also learned was just and that I release I was in need for us to continue to work with educational institutions And the need for us to be able to integrate with some of the learning tools that the kids are all using because they are using
YouTube
ORG
and there's a lot more that we can do to really help educators have
YouTube
ORG
be a key part of the
Curriculum
ORG
. My kids are on
YouTube
ORG
a lot and sometimes more than I want them to be and sometimes it's super productive and they're learning something cool and sometimes it's not productive at all. Innovating to make the time that kids spend on
YouTube Valuable
PRODUCT
and of course safe. To me as a parent to make sure that we're giving parents options about how what they want their kids to see and that's one of the reasons that pretty much as soon as I got to
YouTube
ORG
, we started working on
YouTube
ORG
kids. Which is a separate app, which is important for kids, in terms of how we can control the quality, and we can give parents a lot more control.
Youtube, we started working on
YouTube
ORG
kids. Which is a separate app, which is important for kids, in terms of how we can control the quality, and we can give parents a lot more control What kind of content is appropriate for them and their family and you know there are many other things like we actually just came out with a supervised experience for twins because twins was one of the age groups that was actually hardest they they usually don't wanna be on the kids app but they're not
13
CARDINAL
to be on the Came out with.
The Wall St Journal
ORG
has been doing some in-depth reporting on Facebook. You know, the report is that Facebook knew that
Instagram
ORG
was toxic for teen girls and didn't do anything Does
YouTube
ORG
look at the impact it has on on team users the influence that my
Avon
PERSON
on someone's body image or self esteem personal I think it's a it's a very important topic and We we do have a panel of experts that we work with to be able to help us understand what are the different ways that our product could be used or whether how do we face some of these challenging issues to make sure that we're getting the best advice We certainly do see for a lot of really tough issues that
YouTube
ORG
can be a really valuable resource. So, body positivity, mental health, we see a lot of creators actually talk about mental health. And that that for a lot of kids it's really it like destigmatizes and enables people to talk about what's happening and what's going on with them. The potential long term impacts of
YouTube
ORG
on teams and on children whether it is toxic or whether it's addictive. Is that something that you wonder about? Is that something Struggle with not just as a CEO but as a mom. We certainly wanna make sure that we are doing what we can to be responsible with kids and in every way possible. And that's one of the reasons that we actually have worked hard to give parents as many options as possible for them to decide what is important for them and their family. Whether that's like What is the content they actually have access to? I mean, even letting parents just say, these are like the
10
CARDINAL
videos. My kid can only see these 10 videos And so that is that is really important for us to give the tools back to parents for them to decide what is best for them and their family. Are you concerned about blooming regulation? That is well intended but actually then has a really negative impact. I would like to begin by addressing the heinous attack on
the United States
GPE
Capitol Like all
Americans
NORP
i am outraged by the violence How much did President
Trump
PERSON
test you to and how much did it test you as a leader? Election integrity is
Mayhem how much did President
Trump
PERSON
test you to and how much did it test you as a leader? Election integrity is something that we see incredibly is incredibly important. And with leaned in to in every way we possibly can. We treat all Figures and all public leaders the same as we treat any individual and so meaning that everybody is held to the same standards and so we definitely President
Trump
PERSON
has we would hold all other presidents and all other elected officials to the same standards that we hold our creators and anyone else on
YouTube
ORG
. What was that to fuck up for you as the city of the company? I mean that's kind of that's like a big responsibility. It is difficult but I it is very important and we also are global so we're dealing with leaders from all over the world and they were a number of leaders that are and they're continuing to be a number of leaders that that post or that there's content that maybe a violation of our palsies but we do hold it consistent standard across everything
Youtube
ORG
was the last platform to ban Trump and you have said
Channel
ORG
will be reinstated when an elevated risk of violence has subsided. How and when specifically will you make that decision? We'll we'll make that decision based on a number of different factors. Whether that is like events in the news, signals were seen from the from the government. And it will certainly continue to evaluate that based on a large number of signals that we see. And will he ultimately be ransated? I mean we've stated that we will reinstate him when we believe that there is no risks to public safety or no public danger. Google just remove the voting app for
Russian
NORP
opposition leader
Alexa Navalle
PERSON
. The
Russian
NORP
government seems to be stepping up requests to take down content You've talked in the past about your family history, your grandparents living behind the Iron curtain, being concerned about censorship back then And
Russia
GPE
is a huge
YouTube
ORG
audience. Yeah. How concerned are you about
Russian
NORP
government overreach? Tube it's the fact that we do enable so many voices and that we do enable people to Themselves and really celebrate the freedom of speech And we certainly, yeah, that's that's a core value of ours. When we work with governments or many things that we have to take in consideration like whether it's like local laws or what's happening on the ground and so there's always gonna be multiple considerations that we're gonna have to take into consideration. Said that
YouTube
ORG
deleted a video.
One
CARDINAL
of his videos was that At the request of the
Russian
NORP
government. We certainly get requests from governments. And and we look in consider what's why are we getting the request? What's actually happening on the ground? And based on a whole bunch of different factors. We make a decision. So we don't always, those are not always We will honor them. In that country. Administration seems to be targeting big tech. We've seen
Mark Zuckerberg
PERSON
, we've seen
Jack Dorsey
PERSON
now tested
five
CARDINAL
before
Congress
ORG
multiple times I've heard it said that
YouTube
ORG
is getting a pass Do you think you should be up there testifying? Well, I think we do got a lot of scrutiny. I feel like there's a lot of scrutiny. And because
YouTube
ORG
is part of
Google
ORG
,
Sendar
PERSON
has testified a number of different times and answered many different questions on
YouTube
ORG
. So, I do believe there's a certain amount of scruti And you know, if if I were ever asked a testify, it's certainly would go and testify as well. You're one of the most senior women at
Google
ORG
, if not the most senior woman at
Google
ORG
. Google has faced a lot of scrutiny for how it treats women in
recent years
DATE
. How much progress do you think Google has made in hiring and promoting women Across the company and how much progress do things still needs to be made? Effort across technology as a whole to be able to be more inclusive and I think that is really positive. I've been a big supporter of it. It's the very beginning. I mean I think at
Google
ORG
there are many efforts and there's a lot of a lot of work that has been done and I'm sure there's a lot of
And I mean I think at
Google
ORG
there are many efforts and there's a lot of a lot of work that has been done and I'm sure there's a lot more for us to continue to do and if you just look at the stats you can see they're not enough women. We need more women. In technology. And I think we have made a lot of progress but it's still It's hard to be it's harder to be a woman in technology. It's harder to be a minority of any kind. When we last spoke
5 years ago
DATE
you know I asked you about being a mom you have
five
CARDINAL
kids and you said something that really stuck with me you said being a mom makes me a better leader I prioritize better I see something growing fast and I run towards that if something's growing closely I'm like I don't have time for that how is that management strategy play I think it's played out really well I mean priorization is everything when you look at it because we have a lot of opportunity there's a lot of moving pieces very dynamic environment so if you can prioritize and say these are like the most important things to do then you know you're gonna get there faster How long do you plan to stay at
Google
ORG
? So I have a lot of ways that I see that
YouTube
ORG
can continue to grow. I have a lot of products and ideas and things that aren't yet released and things that we aren't yet doing. And I'm excited about getting those done. So I think if there comes a time where I no longer have a list Projects or I feel like Would you step up and do that? Well, it's doing a great job. Please I think he's doing I mean it's a very challenging job there's a lot of different constituents and a lot of product a lot of different issues Do you still talk much to
Larry and Serge
WORK_OF_ART
? Do you ever talk about work? But our business is very complex right now. And there's a lot of things that are happening and so it's hard for I mean people may have different opinions but To really To to really engage it to long conversation. What do you want your like a C to be? I am proud of the way that we've been able to enable people to have a A channel to have an audience like I just met with a number of
three three
CARDINAL
creators and like Really was able to let them shine and create audiences in a business and employ people that otherwise never would have happened and so that's certainly one. Continuing to grow that I'd say
second
ORDINAL
it's been really important to me to to see a lot more women in technology. That has been just a personal goal of mine. It's too Like be a role model and try to support women and I feel very fortunate to be have gotten to where I have and I know is due to like many different factors. And I wanna support the next generation of women and make see technology as like a open place where anyone can come and And then probably lastly continue to grow what we're doing with education.
Susan
PERSON
would just give you of you too. Thank you so much for having me. Do you see that coming
Do you see that coming
Taiwan
GPE
and
China
GPE
. To come from we will not just cut and run with unmatched breach and resources The moment news breaks
24 hours
TIME
a day. This is
Bloomberg Daybreak
PERSON
Middle East
LOC
on top stories
this morning
TIME
Saudi Arabia's
GPE
energy minister warns extreme volatility in the oil market
May 4
DATE
Is done
more than 20%
PERCENT
since
June Government
ORG
is offering special loans as the PBOC urges banks to lend more. And
Israel Central Bank
ORG
surprises with the biggest rate hike into
decades
DATE
as it seeks to tame inflation.
A very good morning
TIME
.
And
Israel Central Bank
ORG
surprises with the biggest rate hike into
decades
DATE
as it seeks to tame inflation.
A very good morning
TIME
. It's just gone
8 AM
TIME
across the
Amherst
LOC
. Warm welcome to the show.
Dubai
GPE
so when it comes to building a floor under the oil market you bring out the royal big guns his royal highness prince of dollars has been so man says we're wrong there is a disconnect between the future's market and the Disconnect in terms of the dropping oil prices on the future's market on the demand worries extreme volatility a lack of liquidity is leading to a state of schizophrenia this Signals We may have a problem. We may need to cut production. We will strengthen our resolve. All markets are front and center. His royal highness gave a five% boost to the oil market. Now, to the dollar. And the
Euro
PERSON
dollar specifically a
20 year
DATE
low a bruising battering and the
FX
ORG
market is missed pricing the energy crisis called the
Jordan Rochester
PERSON
we broke parity
95
CARDINAL
. Of
the Central Bank
ORG
narrative at
the European Central Bank
ORG
cable
one 1773
DATE
not just booze but bratted at you're looking at the low since
March 2020
DATE
inflation is now being priced out at
18%
PERCENT
by city group so that is
Something
NORP
we will talk more about. What did the pros look at? What would I know? At
136 40
DATE
is where we are dying
two tens
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
on
the year
DATE
. Dropping against the yam and the yen is supposed to be eh one of those haven but of course as we go to Jackson Hold the whole door narrative goes a lot lot stronger. Let's check On the western markets. I'd like to have a look at equities before we go. Shall we though we go quick snapshot? We're biting back. We had a summer of love wobble
yesterday
DATE
. Started charted
Morgan Stanley
ORG
.
Morgan Stanley
ORG
. Do you want that going into
September
DATE
do you want that more liquidity and safety Let's put that prospect to
Juliet Sally
PERSON
. She will take you through the morning market wrap in
Asia Jewels
LOC
. Hey, man. Well, I think anyone will know one really wants any risk ahead of
Jackson Hall
FAC
. That's certainly what we're seeing here in
Asia
LOC
. Stocksole for a
fourth
ORDINAL
session. We're really only seeing those energy players rise on the bounce in crude. Also, a little Reopening stocks in
Japan
GPE
and this is on that report that the
Nike
ORG
report that they could be scrapping PCR testing but as you can see the
Nike
ORG
is lower and dragging on the overall regional benchmark index and still weakness too in the property players in
Hong Kong
GPE
and
China
GPE
despite this
29 1 billion dollars
MONEY
injection by authorities to really try Stabilize the market. We are seeing yields rise across the board again ahead of
Jackson Hall
FAC
. You'll also had
August
DATE
PMI
ORG
for
Australia
GPE
dropping below
50
CARDINAL
for
First
ORDINAL
time since
January
DATE
. And we're watching a little bit more strength now coming back through the dollar against the one. The one was rising earlier after some verbal intervention in
South Korea
GPE
to try and stop. That
13 year
DATE
low that we had seen against the currency versus the dollar Let's have a quick look at the one it is trading at a
2 year
DATE
low Bloomberg Intelligence saying that the onsure you want could be around eight% undervalued here they're saying inflation differentials despite mattering less before the pandemic have become more relevant since then but authorities also
Analyze
PERSON
I should say also expecting some more stimulus coming through from the PBOC Manus.
Jill
PERSON
thank you very much responding
Chant
PERSON
there this morning Increasingly disconnected from fundamentals. Prince of dollars has been salmon till
Bloomberg
PERSON
that harmful volatility is disturbing the basic functions of the market. Let's get more without energy reporter
Steven St Stephen
PERSON
. Gave his last week it's a tight market in reality but the futures are not Of that construction
It's a tight market in reality but the futures are not Of that construction Absolutely, I mean, when you just look at where the market has been heading over
the last few weeks
DATE
, the big story has been this recession. We've talked about it quite a bit. Here and in our articles, you know, the market is very focused on
Saudi Arabia
GPE
is saying and when you Look at the amount of supply in the market. The market is still tight and everyone still realizes that it is not a very cheap to get a physical cargo on the market but because of the low liqui In the future's market and because of some speculative bats you really think that's draw down in prices in this disconnect widen and that is what
Saudi Arabia
GPE
is worried about and that's what they wanna try to combat if they were the potentially curb output. Of course this goes back to the whole debate about if
Iran
GPE
supply comes back on board would Opec Plus be able to accommodate that without some kind of an adjustment but it would appear that the language of progress Hey Facebook coming lighter from the state department. Talk me through what they've said about the latest response from the
Iranians
NORP
. You know, it's not just
the US State Department
ORG
. It's also
Europe
LOC
has said that they've they've had some basically constructive deals comments from from
Iran
GPE
and the government there and you have seen this kind of rationing up From the
US
GPE
government as well as from the
EU
ORG
saying you know the possibility of a deal if something coming together could could be something in the car it's and we are definitely Took it apart in
2018
DATE
that's also part of the story of why oil prices have been falling. Where you could read
Saudi Arabia's
GPE
comments as hey look nothing is done yet you know why is there this giant self there's no
Saudi
NORP
crude in the market how long will it take for that I'm sorry there's no
Iranian
NORP
crude coming into the market how long will it take for that to come back in and we'll we'll Replace any supply and opera plus how will they accommodate that there are a lot of questions or law speculation and I think may you know when you when you hear what
the 30 minutes
TIME
or says It's a lot of trying to reassure the market that we're not in the right place and prices need to be higher.
Steven
PERSON
thank you very much
Steven Stichinski
PERSON
the very latest on the all markets Troubled real estate firms with
29 1 billion dollars
MONEY
worth of special loans bounces
Beijing
GPE
steps up the support for the main pill of the
Chinese
NORP
economy are chief
North Asia
LOC
correspondent
Stephen Angle
PERSON
is with me
Stephen
PERSON
good to have you with me so combine with the rate cuts that you and I talked about yesterday and this is an additional move now you said to me yes you manage to not throw in the kitchen sink at it but
29 1 billion dollars
MONEY
is it's a fairly good soup song. Yeah, that's right. I mean, I had
29 1 billion dollars
MONEY
. That's a nice kitchen sink. Obviously, but they do need to do something to show up confidence in the property sector. Cuz again there's been these mortgage boycotts and the property sector and new loans have been absolutely falling in the latest set of numbers in
July
DATE
and there's plenty of money at the banks with the broadest measure of you know Essentially M
two
CARDINAL
being very much above expectations but there's been a lack of lending so this $
29
MONEY
.
3 billion
CARDINAL
special lending packages is designed Perhaps less to stimulate mortgage demand but more to get those projects that are
half
CARDINAL
completed completed because the develop
China
GPE
simply do not have the ways it means to raise funds because of the
three
CARDINAL
red lines and also the various crackdowns that have come down the pike so it it's a delicate Act that the PBOC has they want to stimulate the economy they want to stimulate confidence but they don't want to ramp up the risks which they started with those
three
CARDINAL
red lines campaign
a couple of years ago
DATE
in fact with
the state council
ORG
said repeat We don't want to overdraw the future.
Risks which they started with those
three
CARDINAL
red lines campaign
a couple of years ago
DATE
in fact with
the state council
ORG
said repeatedly we don't want to overdraw the future so hey this is what the PBOC this is what the All around the world need to do they need to make that balancing act but you have all those other headwinds manners in the economy from COVID oh at the very top the biggest headwind and no exit strategy that we know of and of course all the other problems in the
Chinese
NORP
economy right now.
Steven
PERSON
absolutely in global inflation it is is the angst of everyone our chief north
Asia
LOC
correspondent
Stephen Anger
PERSON
which takes us to this note which literally
Depart
PERSON
. All the news channels
yesterday
DATE
have made it everywhere. Every news channel I flicked across was talking about the city group note. Calling about inflation in
the United Kingdom
GPE
. Could hit
18 Next year
DATE
. Now the last time we were
above 18%
PERCENT
by the way was
1976
DATE
. No be saying that the
UK
GPE
's gonna need a bay like this time from the IMF. But that's when
the United Kingdom
GPE
did need a bay light. The gas
18%
PERCENT
it is this that the price caps when they're taking off in
the United Kingdom
GPE
next year
DATE
As a high school you could be going from paying
2000
DATE
lb for your energy bill to
6000 lb 20%
PERCENT
of your disposable income and a bank of England to respond to that
Need
ORG
to raise rates to seven% should signs of more embedded inflation. You can see Too. Again, a vicious break below a below the
120
CARDINAL
level but I put on this chart
Valerie Territo Queen
PERSON
of Charles created. You've got
2 year
DATE
paper, no pricing, and
231
CARDINAL
basis points of hikes by
May of next year
DATE
. So, this is a dollar strength story
Continues
ORG
to drop that chart is in the library
667
CARDINAL
. Let's get to Julie and
Sally
PERSON
. She's got your
first
ORDINAL
word headlines from around the world. Miss
Sally
PERSON
. Thank you Mister
Crowney
PERSON
.
Israel
GPE
's
Central Bank
ORG
has surprised most economists by delivering its biggest rate height in
two decades
DATE
. The benchmark was raised to
two%
ORG
Since
2008
DATE
officials have been racing to get ahead of inflation which has accelerated and made an economic upswing. The top
US
GPE
infectious disease expert she became a household name during the pandemic we'll step down at
the end of the year
DATE
doctor
Anthony Fauci
PERSON
has run
the national institute of allergy
ORG
and infectious diseases since
84
CARDINAL
advising
seven
CARDINAL
presidents on every major infectious disease outbreak since the HIV crisis including a bowler and Zika
the 81 year old
DATE
says he's leaving to pursue the next chapter if he's
Korean
NORP
. Former
Malaysian
NORP
prime minister
Najibrazak
PERSON
is back in court for a final appeal against a
12 year
DATE
prison sentence related to the
one
CARDINAL
MDB scandal that you've denies any wrongdoing over the state fund that had
billions of dollars
MONEY
siphoned off
Malaysia
GPE
's longest serving leader
Mahati Muhammad
PERSON
says A
50
CARDINAL
50
CARDINAL
chance that
Najibul
PERSON
eventually receive a royal pardon that could pave the way for a comeback as prime minister.
Japanese
NORP
lawmakers and a
US
GPE
state governor are making overliping trips to
Taiwan
GPE
despite a possible backlash from
Beijing
GPE
across party group from
Tokyo
GPE
will meet president saying when during their
2 day
DATE
visit
Indiana
GPE
's governor has also visited to discuss
econom Partnerships
ORG
. After
US
GPE
House Speaker
Nancy Pelosi's
PERSON
arrival provoked
Chinese
NORP
military drills. And
Elon Mask
PERSON
has subpoenaed his long time friend form a
Twitter
PERSON
CEO
Jack Dorsey
PERSON
in his legal battle with the social media giant mask is seeking to collect documents and data to show that
Twitter
PRODUCT
understated how much of its customer base Both sides ahead of the expedited trial in
October
DATE
Global news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and dump bloom but quick take powered by
more than 2700
CARDINAL
journalists and analysis
more than 120
CARDINAL
countries this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
manusc Just think about it. It's still ahead. It's really markets. The risks from a cut from Opec Plus. What would that mean?
What would that mean? For the Hawkish Ratorick A
Jackson Hole
FAC
we speak to investments chief market strategist
Lupus
PERSON
joins me shortly. If you do any kind of business in this country, there's a pretty good chance that you're gonna see that business registered in
Delaware
GPE
. Why? Because that's where you do it In our point was
Wyoming
GPE
can be that venue for blockchain enterprise for crypto Common theme that brings together bipartisan support for this in
Wyoming
GPE
. We wanna make sure that people understand especially in
Wyoming
GPE
but as
United States
GPE
of the whole, this trend is coming. It's not going to stop. More of a small town that's growing into without a call that cryptocurrency version of
Silicone Valley
FAC
. Individualism the independence and the ability to really get things done for yourself and control your own destiny. You get that from a blockchain and you don't get that without it. It has been mostly a dollar story.
Europe
LOC
hasn't under performed as much as I think it should. I think the the
FX
ORG
market is totally missed pricing. The situation you're at. The situation is a complete rethink of the economic model near your zone and I'm just it is struggle. It's strange for all of
Euro
MONEY
. Sending off so slowly. I think it should be much faster. We'll be testing
97 50
CARDINAL
down towards
ยข95
PERSON
in
the next few months
DATE
. Big call from
Jordan Rochester
PERSON
there
Namara G 10
PERSON
at that strategists the perfect storm that's engulfing the euro at the moment and the more is not alone you got
Morgan Stanley
ORG
and the others all For a bigger drop now there's
a euro dollar
MONEY
at the moment
99 41
CARDINAL
markets anticipating a hawkish referral from the federal reserve officials at
Jackson Hall
FAC
a little bit later this week that is sparking a sell off in risk in stocks and
years
DATE
my guest this morning is
Evan Lucas
PERSON
chief strandologist at investment group
Evan
PERSON
good
morning
TIME
welcome It's interesting He talks about the energy crisis in
Europe
LOC
and we've got it in the
GTV
ORG
library. The cost of power for
Germany
GPE
and for
France
GPE
on
a 1 year
DATE
forward basis. Is Had like a record highs. A $
1000
MONEY
equivalent Much deeper and more aggressive in the
Euro
MONEY
. Yeah I'd agree with that and and the reason I also think it's exactly how you should be looking at it is it's the spread to the periphery as well and how much pain I mean you already hearing out of
Spain
GPE
but coming up at the moment they're already doing rolling blackouts that things have to operate at
27
DATE
ยฐ it shows you the cost of Is so high and the the best prices
You already hearing out of
Spain
GPE
but coming up at the moment they're already doing rolling blackouts that things have to operate at
27
DATE
ยฐ it shows you the cost of energy is so high and the best pricing as well and I the people that I think are I mean what we're talking about here is going to see fairly large if not massive increases in headline inflation in the euros on that that is clear you cannot have that kind of energy crisis that kind of price increasing and not have to chase it and that's the next part Discussion here is as you discuss before the break around what's going on in the
UK
GPE
the same problem is building in the
Eurosa
GPE
in the fact that inflation is going to get worse before it gets better double digit is clear that it's The next sort of fallout and how the
UCB
ORG
managers that is there's a next question because they're not just managing as you said for
Germany
GPE
and for
France
GPE
and to something sent to
Spain
GPE
in
Italy
GPE
who managing it for all of the peripheral zone countries and those countries that would start paying Go for it. Let's let's take a little bit deeper in that cuz there's a lot to unpag and the narrative is the ECB are gonna have to chase their tails I mean they haven't even raised rates I put it to you that we're gonna have a tree moment in
Europe
LOC
but you're taking the other side of that tree that's ground that's fine how much more aggressive did the ECB need to get before
Christmas
DATE
From my perspective I think they need to get quite more aggressive and starting to move towards
one
CARDINAL
even
one and
DATE
a half percent and and again the reason that's not that aggressive considering what you With what's going on the
fed
ORG
or what is possibly gonna go out there the
BOE
ORG
or even at the BO you know the BOC is all chasing that tail problem the
Euro
ORG
has different crisis they obviously have the war on their doorstep they do have to make sure they continue Economy to move but they're going to have an inflation okay they can't catch Does
one
CARDINAL
one and a half The Year
Hawaii
GPE
put a base in
the year at 9597
DATE
or is there a deeper lurch to the left of
97
CARDINAL
I'm being generous here on Euro dollar let's square that away Yes and that is the question I mean again that the missed pricing is seeing in table would suggest probably not I mean if you look at what is likely to happen from
the Bank of England
ORG
the the speed of rate rises there it's not catch And it's not necessarily gonna save the euro because I think the market is looking for the point of view. The economic crisis is going to be a bigger problem than obviously the return that you can get from grabbing on to the euro at these cheaper prices with a high yield that's been Offer because again the inflation kill is there.
The real year
DATE
that you're getting from
EuroZone
ORG
is not good enough to really chase it. So I don't think it's gonna catch it mothers. I just think it easy bee has a problem now where they're gonna have to ask is it price Ability we chase or is it continuing to try and grab some form of economic stability and neither of them are good outcomes let's let's let's put that out there and that's why I think
Europe
LOC
is going to be the epicenter of the problems for the rest of
2022
DATE
and starting
23
CARDINAL
. Okay let's put it back to the
UK
GPE
starting getting crushed I had
BMO
ORG
with me yes you say yo you're gonna get
one
CARDINAL
last lurch to the left in
Sterling
GPE
it's all about the dollar the dollar will top out in a
month
DATE
's time rather than 3 months time we can debate that forever but I Whole name on
Sterling
ORG
.
231
CARDINAL
basis points of hikes. Would not see if Sterling at the moment. City call
18%
PERCENT
inflation which is fairly rabid. Sterling go on the outright and on the crosses. Yeah, so I'd agree with you on
the 18%
PERCENT
. That is a very, very big call. It's not out of this world. Let's let's also probably put that there but I would say that you know, maybe
15
CARDINAL
is probably the the top where I would It will probably therefore again the question is we are arguing around the economics and what the economic crash will do and whether or not the inflation chasing and therefore the rate rises can put a base inside that currency again I still think that the moment the pricing is around the economics The all these comes back to the
US
GPE
dollar and the attraction to the
USD
ORG
is just so strong that even with that catching of inflation it's not gonna be enough to have set it because you then look at the euros zone you look at what's going
UK
GPE
and the economics just don't stack up to try and chase that yield because again if you look at real yields with let's take cities idea of
18%
PERCENT
that is still not gonna be attractive enough to really go near it cos you real yields are cru You will not space and that is why currently trade is consist
one
CARDINAL
road and that road is the USD it's the safest it's the biggest and it's the one that's giving you the return in the current market Do you know we managed to do
Evan
PERSON
do I
A
one
CARDINAL
road and that road is the USD. It's the safest. It's the biggest and it's the one that's giving you the return in the current market. Do you know what we managed to do
Evan
PERSON
do you wanna make history on Bloomberg Go on You managed to not even say the word
Jackson
PERSON
whole in the wake of
Jackson Ho
GPE
that's more mindful than yours to be fair. To be fair. I was driving the bus. Having good luck. Let's see what
Jackson Hall
ORG
delivers for the market. The chief market strategist at investment group. Making history on
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Right here.
China
GPE
's appetite for energy is enormous. The country consumes about a quarter of the world's energy supply
35%
PERCENT
more than the
US
GPE
annually
DATE
. It's energy needs of more than triple since
the year 2000
DATE
That consumption has helped to feel astonishing growth but it's come at a cost. There is no way to tackle climate change unless
China
GPE
reduces its emissions to need oh. The countries reliance on fossil fuels is also a hindrance to its own growth and the well being of its citizens. It has a long standing pollution problem and it is also prone to outages that severely hamper industry All this has led the world's biggest polluter to take steps towards a radical transformation. On the David Rubenstein show Your conversations. I uncover the untold stories of the world's most successful leaders. Watch
Wednesdays
DATE
on
Bloomberg Television
ORG
. Let's get a quick check on my latest business headlines from around the world. Zoom fell in late trade after projecting sales and profit for
the current quarter
DATE
Hey Competition intensifies from
Microsoft Teams
ORG
. Mutually agree that he would depart
next year
DATE
. From lockdowns and
Chinese
NORP
consumer boycotts The company surprised investors with a profit warning in
July
DATE
following a slower than expected recovery in
Greater China
LOC
. And forward is cutting
3000
CARDINAL
jobs
this week
DATE
to fund the shift towards electric vehicles. The cards will come primarily in the
US
GPE
with some positions also eliminated in
Canada
GPE
and
India
GPE
. See you
Jim Folly
PERSON
has repeatedly said the company is too many workers
Ford
ORG
is planning to spend
50 1 billion dollars
MONEY
to build
two 1 million
CARDINAL
electric vehicles
A year
DATE
by
2026
DATE
. Where do you go for your summer if you live in New York the Hamptons and it got a lot more expensive from
the second quarter of 2019
DATE
prices rose by
88%
PERCENT
but if you want a chicky number in the Hamptons well prices are dropping And quite aggressively for
April, May, June, July
DATE
. Let me show you the sequence of discoint.
Santa
GPE
and
April
DATE
she tanked by
eight
CARDINAL
. Four% in
May
DATE
they wobbled furiously in
June
DATE
Dawn
Wobbled furiously in
June
DATE
dine
11%
PERCENT
but don't fear as I say prices Have risen by
over 88%
PERCENT
. Since
the second quarter of 2019
DATE
and
70
CARDINAL
homes still sold for
more than
QUANTITY
10 1 million dollars. Oh to have a home in the Hamptons. Let's see whether
Danny Berger
PERSON
has we had cheeky little number. Eh up there Okay we'll leave you with those thoughts of the Hamptons and what you might want to Dream of Let's have a look at equity features. There you go. Swimming pools, canopies, let's have a look at the torture. You need a little bit more in the equity markets. I mean, yet tanked by
two%
ORG
on spooze
yesterday
DATE
,
two
CARDINAL
. Five% on
the Nas X. Equities
ORG
this morning
TIME
.
The summer
DATE
of love, deteriorates, the risk reward is skewed at the moment according to
Morgan Stanley
ORG
, for cash, Do you see that coming through
24 hours
TIME
a day.
Bloomberg
PERSON
your global business authority.
Bloomberg
PERSON
has enhanced search on the terminal to deliver what you need when you need it now you can simply type phrases in everyday
English
LANGUAGE
in the command line Compare financials People analyze Marcus You can enter phrases. Or ask questions. What do you want to know
today
DATE
? Ask a question or visit search go to find answers now. This is
Binberg Daybreak
PERSON
Middle East
LOC
. Our top stories
this morning
TIME
.
Saudi Arabia's
GPE
energy minister.
More than 20%
PERCENT
since
June
DATE
. City group says the energy crisis could see
UK
GPE
inflation. Top
18%
PERCENT
next year
DATE
. The point falls to the weakest level since
March 2020
DATE
.
China
GPE
steps up. It's efforts to stem a deepening property crisis. The government is offering special loans as the PBOC urges banks to lend more. Inflation Let's check in on those Where will you take us Well maybe I'll start there manners because certainly the one has very much been in focus you can see it weakening further now against the dollar about a
10th
ORDINAL
of
one%
ORG
but we did have some verbal intervention earlier from
Korea
GPE
really trying to stem that slide
yesterday
DATE
of course the one falling to that
13 year
DATE
low and we heard from authorities saying that they are
Confetti
ORG
offshore speculative factors. President
Yuk
PERSON
Of course the wine falling to that
13 year
DATE
low and we heard from authorities saying that they are watching
30
CARDINAL
offshore speculative factors president
Yun
PERSON
also talking about One but it hasn't really done much to stop that slide although we did have a bounce earlier it is though a risk of session you can see yields rising stocks broadly lower as we look ahead to
Jackson Hall
FAC
and regional stocks down for a
fourth
ORDINAL
session so that is actually our longest losing streak in
around 2 months
DATE
and the benchmark index holding At
about a 1 month
DATE
low and what we are not seeing too much support in is in those property players in
Hong Kong
GPE
and
China
GPE
despite that $
29
MONEY
. 3 billion injection from authorities to try to stabilize that market so investors still very nervous and cautious about the overall property space in
China
GPE
minus Well done segway beautifully perfectly at
one
CARDINAL
area of the upside is tourism stocks in
Japan
GPE
are you off to
Japan
GPE
have you been to
Japan
GPE
recently is it on the list Look, I know you're gonna give me some grief about talking about tourism. I've never far from a tourist story but look, we are actually seeing some very good games coming through. In some of these reopening plays in
Japan
GPE
and this is on a Nike Report that they may actually scrap that PCR test that is needed of course this is
one
CARDINAL
hurdle that travelers across the world are not really wanting to take at the moment and there is also a report They could actually scrap the cap on the number Still quite tricky to get there so if this is ease that is going to be a good boost for this overall economy and reopening stocks moving higher versus a downbeat topics in
Manus Mt. Cranfield
LOC
puts a really interesting point about these reports that some of the quarantine measures in
Hong Kong
GPE
could be eased for a business summit in
November
DATE
Trade is not really buying into that story they want to hear that quarantine is gonna be scrapped all together before you see that reopening play in
Hong Kong
GPE
manus
Okay Jill
PERSON
thank you very much you did
Sally
PERSON
at tracking her next move across the globe she's coming to an airport near you to Israel they had rates by the most since
2005
DATE
tightening up their grip for
the fourth straight month
DATE
the move surprised economists who have been expecting a smaller increase among Good to see you. We'll get you a travel plans at the moment. But what a vicious old hike, okay? That's right and this is actually the
third
ORDINAL
time
this year
DATE
that economists have been surprised by the aggressiveness of
the Bank of Israel
ORG
with a message from the bank very clear we're seeing very strong growth
Labor
ORG
market and we're seeing inflation and it's quite broad based and that's why we feel the need to hike rates by
75
CARDINAL
basis points more than economists we're expecting an in fact the central bank doesn't believe Gonna get down to its target rate of
one
CARDINAL
to three% inflation
The second quarter of next year
DATE
at which point it'll hit
275%
PERCENT
. You know interest remain rate remains low even after this hike at
two%
ORG
and that's really what we heard from economists
Michael Nyes
PERSON
at city group saying this move leaves us in no doubt that more tightening Hike at the next meeting in
October
DATE
and then again in
November
DATE
this this we'll see how this plays out over
The Bank of Israel
ORG
a little bit more room to run here. And the face of the
Iran
GPE
nuclear deal hangs in the balance but there are signs of progress both from the
US
GPE
side and from what the
Europeans
NORP
are saying. Yeah, the
US
GPE
side is really important because we hadn't Remember the
EU
ORG
had its final text then
Iran
GPE
said well we have a few changes they sent that back and then that went To the
US
GPE
. But the
first
ORDINAL
indications that we are hearing is that this is positive progress. The
US
GPE
saying that we are closer to a deal than we ever have been. And they're saying that you run drop some of its demands that they considered non-starters One seems to be the declassification of the
Iranian
NORP
revolutionary guard core as a terrorist organization that something iron had been pushing forward but the
US
GPE
had stirred firmly against that said a lot of the discussion recently has focused Economic gear.
Terrorist organization that something iron had been pushing forward but the
US
GPE
had stirred firmly against that said a lot of the discussion recently has focused on the economic guarantees
Iran
GPE
that might factor into place if they were to come back to the deal the
US
GPE
has largely said it can't really guarantee that much and that's why a lot of strategists who've been following this for
the past couple of years
DATE
still pretty skeptical that we are going to see a deal here that said oil markets were looking at triggers Implemented in a phase fashion over the course of
several months
DATE
and likely really only playing
next year
DATE
that said
Iran
GPE
says it could ramp up it's product Capacity to more than four 1 million barrels per day by
March 2023
DATE
. You know, that would have a really significant impact on on the tightness Oil market that we've seen for the globe. Yep I I'd certainly a huge issue let's talk about
Pakistan
GPE
because we got officials that are saying the country will receive
billions of dollars
MONEY
in support but it comes from Kata sorry Arabia and the UAE do we have
Detail
PERSON
as yet. Yeah according to the acting governor of
the Bank of Pakistan
ORG
at
Cutter Pledge two 1 billion dollars
WORK_OF_ART
in support for
Pakistan
GPE
Saudi Arabia
GPE
will your mark financing for oil of to the tune of
one 1 billion dollars
MONEY
in the
UAE
ORG
will do Things similar. This very important for the
IMF
ORG
, the
IMF
ORG
has said, we're willing to consider financing for you but we See what golf countries do first we want them to form up the commitments before we make a decision that decision could come at a meeting that's happening
next week
DATE
so we're looking for a potential announcement of this formal plan perhaps
today
DATE
at the prime minister right now is going to be visiting For
the next 2 days
DATE
so that's potentially when we could get this announcement that said assets and
Pakistan
GPE
have been under a lot of pressure we see in consumer inflation over
20%
PERCENT
and then the
Talking
FAC
about in
the past couple of days
DATE
potentially pressing suit against former prime minister
Imran Khan
PERSON
investors haven't loved that and we've seen the reaction and the Market with bond prices dipping across the board Okay so well thank you very much on
Fox Minda
PERSON
at
the Financial Centre
FAC
in
Doha
GPE
with a very latest round up on
the Middle East
LOC
markets well mini markets they did well in
July
DATE
and in
August
DATE
that global boost across equity markets rebounding
12%
PERCENT
from the lows but the
FG
ORG
home is things that the second half of the year Be a bit trickier Simon Kitchen joins me now will it certainly getting tricky at home in
London
GPE
where you are tricky in
Europe
LOC
and certainly some of the bullishness and stock assignment has been prigged overnight so how much trickier does it get for
Mina
GPE
? Morning manus. I think that you've had a very good rebound in
the past 5 weeks
DATE
had some sorts look at
Martin
ORG
per
nearly 60%
PERCENT
asking his pricing and awful lot and I think you know it's second quarter was Hey Facebook Please but it's gonna be a bit more a bit more normal in that in
the second half of the year
DATE
. And these stocks are pricing and awful lot. So I'm I'm slightly surprised that the
Rajhi
ORG
survey that says that Hey Out there gonna be weak. In
the in the second half of the year
DATE
and I think you wanna look more stocks that offer yield and and I think staples are interesting as well. Okay I mean the Araji survey it is out as you say they expect here's a shot banks will open I'd love to find a broker in in
the Middle East
LOC
that doesn't wanna buy banks banks will like perform petrols and software and services but if I look at the breath of the
Alraji
ORG
survey They are cooling a little bit more towards siding so he has I performed and you would flag that overall how much of a breath or pores you get inside I think you see, you know, quite a bit of consolidation. I think you'll still soon rate rises on that.
How much of a breath are pores do you get inside I think you see, you know, quite a bit of consolidation. I think you're you're still seeing rate rises on Gonna be soft I think more of the interest is is gonna come from Which is her results for
the second quarter
DATE
so what I'd be doing is playing
South Africa
GPE
and selling Martin Okay so you you you Trade that as a spread or you'd do that as a switch. In terms of the flow a great deal has been made throughout
the first 8 months of the year
DATE
anyway assignment in regards to institutions and overseas institutions under allocated to minor do you think there are at benchmark do you think that they begin to hold steady naira how do you see the flows in
the last quarter of the year
DATE
Hey Facebook still incremental money to come into to the region I mean some of these some of these activities Still quite slow moving and remember that our markets are still quite high touch Compared to
two
CARDINAL
over longest standing emoji markets. So that means that incremental money is still gonna be coming in. I think that's the fireworks obviously that you saw in in
the second quarter of the year
DATE
after the base interview crane. Those are behind us and and the overall context of course Is one of Yes I think from managers we'll still be adding more Money to commodity Exporters like the
GCC
ORG
away from
Mall Mainstream AM
FAC
so that is in our favour it's just a perfect local investor in is gonna have Out of arrest. So I'm available
Brent 97 22
LAW
WCI
ORG
91 15 how important was ABS's intervention in
New York
GPE
A cut in production from Opec Plus because of this divorce between of reality between future's prices and the tightness in the physical. Well it's a it's a tricky situation cos you've got so many signals on Earlier about the ignore the
Iran
GPE
deal and is it gonna come through but then you got
US
GPE
midterms in which
Republicans
NORP
might come in and sort of that deal
Sanctions
ORG
coming through on on
Russian
NORP
crude like he was here and then as he says in his comments paper market is very thin So I think he's just putting that option there on the table because he doesn't want to see it complete Market but it is not necessarily gonna have to follow through If if you wanna say the
Iran
GPE
deal doesn't come through or if if
Russian
NORP
crude is is finally taken off the market Okay, Simon, thank you very much. Simon Kitchen there. My guest
this morning
TIME
on
Meeter Markets
LOC
, managing director, head strategy at
EFG Hermes
ORG
. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
.
What is your base case for
Italy
GPE
in terms of what happens
This week
DATE
as the world watches inflation rise employment rebound Written Summer has already been punctuated by scenes of trouble chaos and there is more to come workers of the country's largest container shipping port Reports from
Felixda
ORG
. This is a significant moment in the
UK
GPE
's
summer
DATE
of strikes.
Felix Sto
PERSON
is the
UK
GPE
's biggest container port and
Four 1 million
QUANTITY
containers pass through it
every year
DATE
. So the
Russell
PERSON
group estimates that about Going to be affected by
this 8 day
DATE
long strike. We're on
day two
DATE
. It's
about 2000
CARDINAL
workers who are disputing their Here in the
UK
GPE
. In terms of how disruptive It's a monitoring
11
CARDINAL
more that will add to delays and costs Black sports as it's going to take
24 days
DATE
to clear the backlogs and port officials are saying that the port is operating at
less than 10%
PERCENT
capacity but of course disruption is the whole point of a strike the unions are here to send a message they've already rejected
one
CARDINAL
pace settlement that would have Less than the 10. One% inflation we're seeing here in the
UK
GPE
now the At the port say that this pay rise is to cover the whole of
the year
DATE
and inflations only just tipped into double digits they'll revisit the issue
next year
DATE
if inflation is as high as city thinks it will be
18%
PERCENT
city seeing now but in the meantime there is the risk that the Through wage price spiral contribute to the inflation that Trying to shield their members from through the strikes.
Lizzy
PERSON
Burden for
Bloomberg News
ORG
in
Felixa
GPE
. Let's go back to our
Middle East
LOC
markets now with our equities reported far at
Abrahi
ORG
. She joins me around the desk. We've got this From
Alraji Kappa
PERSON
and we just been talking to some of the cause and it in regards to
Patrick Comical's
ORG
we had some of the broad brush strokes a little bit earlier what should I like for you absolutely so looking at the fund manager survey investors are actually less bullish madas
This quarter
DATE
than they were in
April
DATE
. That's
about 22%
PERCENT
of investors seeing that
today
DATE
going up over
10%
PERCENT
by
the end of the year
DATE
48%
PERCENT
expected to perform in the
five to 10%
PERCENT
rage and meanwhile we have about 30 Expecting it's actually Be flat on
the year
DATE
or up
as much as five
CARDINAL
So that's a little bit of a mixed performance over here definitely very different than the performance we've seen in
April
DATE
I mean in terms of the
Patrick
PERSON
chemicals yes that is a little bit Rising but the banks they're still the top call in
Saudi Arabia
GPE
among investors meanwhile ensures are the least among the least favorite sectors as well as capital
Goods
NORP
and retail retailers. Talking about a switch out of my Of planes some of those side exposed
Retail retailers. To switch. Some of those side exposures. With some big volatility in some of the big names inside
yesterday
DATE
of course is
Royal Heims
ORG
came out to create a floor in the oil market but talk me through some of their premierations around this side eating narrative. Well, looking at the stocks that sit up to me personally
yesterday
DATE
, I think their earnings are still a little bit of a key story inside the area but even though we're towards the The company sword for
a second day
DATE
after reporting better than expected earnings but really what the market is doing here is compar That actually had rather lackluster earnings. They missed estimates. Meanwhile, so that go came in and beat meanwhile also
Nahi
PERSON
which is a company that recently debuted in
Saudi Arabia
GPE
sort of fresh record. Again Better than expected earnings. It is a top pick for
Ubar
GPE
capital because it's to play on the social reforms and infant care. Give us a quick call later on. We'll have them on
tomorrow
DATE
morning
TIME
. We'll talk about the milk prices. In terms of the
Israelis
NORP
of course going for a mega hike Really shocking the market I would say what are the ramifications for stocks well stocks dipped quite a bit after you know the centre bank decision certainly there was global pressure on equities around the world but you could see that the market was definitely Can buy surprise some of the key drags on the TA 35 of
Steva
GPE
was Banklumi Israel discount bank soap again the lenders coming under Globally banks aren't actually benefiting that much from the prospects of higher rates because of these fears of a recession globally not just you know in the
US
GPE
so that's what's going on the With more red hacks seen down the line in
Israel
GPE
keep an eye on the lenders as well okay fine thank you so much for Lives on the equity market course Here in
the Middle East
LOC
. Fine. Thank you. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Yes it's about renewables. This is a level of uncertainty that we haven't had to deal with. Television and radio.
Ken Griffin
PERSON
is moving both Citadel and Citadel Securities to
Miami
GPE
. By
Bloomberg
PERSON
's
Amanda Gordon
PERSON
. Investors are kinding down to
Jackson Blues
PERSON
on. For
decades ago
DATE
he says the
fed
ORG
should be more communicative On where policy has got to go. If they move in a way that's anticipated another maybe
75
CARDINAL
basis points the next one we don't know there's there's some discussion about that then it will indicate that they're on the way and I think what's most important now
Another maybe
75
CARDINAL
basis points the next song we don't know there's there's some discussion about that then it will indicate that they're on the way and I think what's most important now we've learned from history on this learn from our experience is the more the vet can communicate what's objective is it would like to get back to
two%
ORG
inflation and need to do Reduces inflation doesn't reduce the growth the economy just inflation better off will be so that communication that stipulated about what the policy will It's very important right now and I hope that that does that. John when he comes to where we're at in the markets we're seeing extreme bullishness not so much
today
DATE
but we've seen the rally just continue to build Over
the years
DATE
for you what roller
half
CARDINAL
financial conditions play and should the
fed
ORG
be paying more attention to this or at least a loot to that fact in order to sort of bring down This bullishness that we're seeing. Well, they have Attention to the the market This is what needs to be done. This is what's worked in the past. This is how we can do it The the more convincing it will be. I think that what the markets don't like is uncertainty about what's gonna happen to us more uncertainty
today
DATE
. I think that's one of the reasons why the market's went down. But the the more that the
Communicate
PERSON
So called
Taylor
PERSON
whatever you wanna call it or advantageous cuz it says hey we need to move a little bit further and hopefully that will cure the problem a more rapidly than people expect. John when you wrote about this and that in
82
CARDINAL
you flagged the scenario right early deceleration risking the issue around credibility and then the the risk of of really disinflation causing a recession given perhaps from the Errors before does that mean we're at a point where recession is going to be maybe a likely cure for this about inflation I don't think it needs to be part of the cure but we we've experienced if we let inflation build up
one
CARDINAL
more time like it's in the 70s it was
7 years
DATE
of hiring place If we nip it in the bud which I still think we can then you don't have to have this negative effects that people worried about the right to worry about cuz they've seen in the past but the more that there can be A stipulation. This is what we need to do. This is good. Make the economy healthier is to make a stronger growing economy faster and I think that's what we should emphasize. This is better for job. Just as better All over the place right now. And we'll be live at
Jackson Hole
FAC
later this week
DATE
forward that crucial power speech as well as the interviews with the
fed
ORG
presidents from
Kansas City
GPE
,
Philadelphia
GPE
,
Saint Louis
GPE
,
Cleveland
GPE
, and
Atlanta
GPE
. You fed me up. Okay, now. To understand this scale Of the energy crisis Rest of the world but I wanna focus on your this is
Dutch Gas
ORG
features
five
CARDINAL
times the equivalent of a barrel of oil. Now that that just gives you some kind of understanding. But how does that translate to inflation for the central bank? Looking at inflation in the GTV library not just the
Dutch
NORP
gas features but
the energy Year on year
DATE
. Now you understand why the economic headwinds for the euro are turning into a hurricane. We're subparity for the
first
ORDINAL
time. Again, in
20 years
DATE
, you're getting colds out there.
95
CARDINAL
and
97
DATE
.
Morgan Will
ORG
continue lower. From
London
GPE
HQ and our
Middle East
LOC
HQ. It's a beautiful day. It's Dom in
London
GPE
.
When the price of anything goes up, the consequences reach far beyond what you'd expect. But perhaps most of all, when it comes to food. In
2010
DATE
surging food prices help spark the Arab Spring lives were lost regimes fell and the consequences are still with us Once again food prices are rising and fast Energy cost broken supply chains and surging demand were just some of the factors that have driven food prices to their
first
ORDINAL
record high since
the Arab Spring
EVENT
. And that's all before a war between
two
CARDINAL
of the world's biggest food producers.
Ukraine
GPE
is called the bread basket of
Europe
LOC
and taken with
Russia
GPE
the
two
CARDINAL
account for
about a quarter
CARDINAL
of global we trade they produce
more than half
CARDINAL
of the world sunflower seeds and oil
nearly 20%
PERCENT
of the barley Now throw in rising energy prices and processing transporting even refrigerating food is more expensive plus fertilizer production is extremely energy intensive less fertilizer means lower prop yield and prices rise even more. Pandemic revealed how complicated and fragile global trade systems are Global agriculture, perhaps even more so. Unlike metals for example, food goes bad. In crops take
months
DATE
to grow in our vulnerable to unpredictabilities like the weather. Rising food prices will be felt everywhere but the poorest countries in the world will be hit the hardest. And as all these factors compound the real fear is that record high will lead to record high and ultimately to a global food crisis with vast consequence. On the David Rubenstein show Hear conversations. Cover the untold stories of the world's most successful leaders. Watch
Wednesdays
DATE
on
Bloomberg Television
ORG
. Over
the past few weeks
DATE
has made it clear. It wants to go higher. It got a little spooked by the idea that rising. This is Bloomberg Day Break Your Up I'm
Danny Burger
PERSON
in
London
GPE
alongside
Manish Cranny
PERSON
in
Dubai
GPE
and these are the stories that's set your agenda. Crisis compounded
European
NORP
gas prices continue to search ahead of another supply disruption as
German
NORP
chancellor Schultz
Infrastructure
ORG
has been built in
Germany
GPE
and that is short time Recession fears and
winter
DATE
warnings push the Euro dying To
two decade
DATE
low concerns about growth continue. After
Saudi Arabia's
GPE
energy minister warns the alliance could cock production
Danny
PERSON
a very good morning is
Royal Highness Bills
ORG
of
Florida
GPE
in the oil market but it is about
FX
ORG
and
FX
ORG
ball that is ground oh for me in terms of risk. Danny, good
morning
TIME
. Good
morning
TIME
, man. It's remarkable. How quickly are obsession, the narrative of this market has changed to watching equities float higher with hopes of a
fed
ORG
pivot to obsession over the energy crisis in
Europe
LOC
with
The narrative of this market has changed to watching equities float higher with hopes of a
fed
ORG
pivot to obsession over the energy crisis in
Europe
LOC
with those prices just Rocketing ever higher.
Sergena Way
PERSON
And we're not an extreme volatility yet let me take you to Grind oh which unseated risk which is right over
three%
GPE
and they're building up the short positions volumes on short positions on euro dollars going into
Jackson Hall
FAC
on
Monster
LOC
oil has a Four% weapon is raw harness expensive dollars has been someone talks about potentially having to cut because there is some kind of a schizophrenic divorce between future's prices and reality of the oil market We are seeing levels we haven't seen in
20 years
DATE
and it is because of the very essence of the They're gonna have to do.
One
CARDINAL
,
one
CARDINAL
and a half percent to get price stability. Put that in your
FX
ORG
pipe and smoke it cable crushed one
1765
DATE
and we are not done yet. City group calling
18%
PERCENT
in terms of inflation. It's a crush
Danny
GPE
good
morning
TIME
. Morning manice will the calmness of equity future
this morning
TIME
belies the move that we saw
yesterday
DATE
some extreme volatility a drop of
more than two
CARDINAL
When it comes to S and P 500 futures there was a slight rebound to start your future session now they're unable to hang on to that S and P 500 features they are After that
Friday
DATE
option now dealers are positioned Way. So there's your view in
Europe
LOC
and the
US
GPE
. Let's head Studio jewels. Danny certainly the same here in fact the energy set to really the only bright spot on that rebound in oil but it is a risk of session for a
fourth
ORDINAL
session
today
DATE
across
Asian
NORP
markets and really being led lower via
Japan
GPE
you did have this move
Chinese
NORP
authorities to try and stabilize the property market $
29
MONEY
.
3 billion
CARDINAL
worth of special developer loans but that's not really helping out the property stocks too much down by
about nine tenths
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
in the afternoon The
CSI
ORG
300
CARDINAL
losses though I guess a little bit better than what you're seeing across some of the other markets. You talk about
FX
ORG
two. I mean we've been watching very closely what's been happening in the wine and
earlier today
TIME
there was actually some verbal intervention to try and stem
this 13 year
DATE
slide against the
Greenback
PERSON
you did see a bit of a bounce there coming through on the warm we also heard President
Yun
PERSON
but as you can see the dollar once again king up by
about two
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
and let's put the board and have a look at what we're seeing more broadly and
Asian
NORP
stocks cuz as I mentioned we're down for a
fourth
ORDINAL
session the longest losing streak in
around 2 months
DATE
holding around
a 1 month
DATE
low we've gone through the
150 day
DATE
movie average and looking like we are going to of course You to fail at that point till if we get through that mark we're going to be back to around a
2 year
DATE
low on this index manus.
Jill
PERSON
thank you very much
Stuart
PERSON
with the
Asian
NORP
markets let's get to the team of reporters around the world
Andrew James
PERSON
joins us with the latest production warning from
Opec
ORG
more detail from
Aswan
GPE
Hines
Berger Berlin
PERSON
to shed some light on this
German
NORP
gas crisis the scale of it and what
Christian
NORP
what what chance of shoots is trip to
Canada
GPE
means Danny. And we'll also get a preview of some of the numbers when it comes to
Europe
LOC
with those
European
NORP
mines do later today
David Palace
PERSON
here with us in
London
GPE
but
Manus
PERSON
let's start with the oil story with
Saudi Arabia's
GPE
energy minister And it's allies maybe forced to cut output as the future's market has become increasingly disconnected from fundamentals from what we're joined to buy
Bloomberg
ORG
's
Andrew Jane's
PERSON
so Andrew I mean is this a broken market and what is that mean for what Opec does from here on out? Hi, Danny. Well, I'm not sure it's a broken market. I mean, the south is talking about a disconnect between future's prices
Market
PERSON
.
Hi Danny well I'm not sure it's a broken market I mean the south is talking about a disconnect between future's prices and the market fundamentals and
Saudi
NORP
Was also saying things about unsubstantiated stories about demand destruction Kind of interesting to contrast their attitude. They were quite hands off when prices were going up but now they're coming down. They're a lot more talking about decisive action. Yeah so this is gonna they're talking about production cats and this is gonna make things pretty interesting heading into the next opac plus
Eating
PERSON
an
early September
DATE
. We saw a big market reaction
yesterday
DATE
when this
first
ORDINAL
came out we'll dropped as much as almost five% but it's sort of closed little change and we're up moderately today so yeah expectation is that there could be some cat spots going by the market reaction I don't think The view I don't think is that we're not not in for huge reductions there. Yeah it it's not the amount Andrew it's the messaging we've just had a cut One would say to appease global geopolitics And suddenly to reverse on that throws throws a spanner in all the the lobbying that we've seen Andrew let's see what happens in the
September
DATE
meeting
Andrew James
PERSON
that was very latest on
Opec
ORG
to the park crisis in
Germany
GPE
and
Europe
LOC
we're seeing part prices in
Germany
GPE
surgeon to over โฌ
700
MONEY
and mega watt hour for the
first
ORDINAL
time The market's in panic over the country's dependence on unrevival
Russian
NORP
energy supplies chancellor all of Schultz is in
Canada
GPE
part of the push to find alternative sources of gas and emphasize that the government is working hard Dependence off
Russian
NORP
imports. We are deciding on making it more easy for companies to switch Going back to oil Necessity of Let's get to
Burger Jane
ORG
and she joins his nicer burger. Here we are.
Germany
GPE
. I had one. I had
Kristoff Rude
PERSON
with me here. Yes, he said the front page of
Germany
GPE
. No longer have COVID charts. They now have energy storage charts on a
daily
DATE
basis gas stored charts. Hitting real crisis levels aren't we Well, it is going to be difficult. There's no doubt. Basically,
Germany
GPE
is facing a for
the coming months
DATE
. A shortage in energy and we have to see how the winter is. The government is Looking closely at the temperature really in in autumn so because they still have to fill up the storage at the moment it's
80%
PERCENT
but to get through the winter and also through
the next winter
DATE
they know they have to build up more and this is also the reason why basically salt is travelling the world he has been Way and now he's in
Canada
GPE
in order to basically get gas for
Norway
GPE
or also
Canada
GPE
in in terms of
LNG
ORG
. Alright,
Burgett
PERSON
. Thank you very much.
Bloomberg
PERSON
's
Burger Yen
PERSON
and we'll be back throughout the program to help us cover the energy crisis. Now, speaking of which, we are gonna get
European PMI's
ORG
this morning
TIME
for
August
DATE
. They'll provide more insight into the challenges facing the euro area. Economy with this sort of energy cross cost That burger was talking about in the risk that
Russia
GPE
cuts off supply for more let's get to
David Powell
PERSON
our senior year economist for
Bloomberg
PERSON
economics I mean David I'm I'm assuming that these numbers I Can even have the worst of it in them Likely to to to get worse. They won't reflect this most recent surge and energy energy prices. We've just spoken of because the reporting period is already over for the survey. But in all likelihood the survey is going to remain in contractionary territory after having fallen below 50 already in
the month of July
DATE
. Hm. David welcome back to
Daybreak Europe
LOC
now we've got you up early We're gonna keep you coming back in again and again. So, my last guest in
the last hour
TIME
said that the ECB is now so far behind the curve. They're gonna have to not just raise rates by
50
CARDINAL
basis points, even in the eye of an energy crisis, but
150
CARDINAL
basis points, and this
That the ECB is now so far behind the curve. They're gonna have to not just raise rates by
50
CARDINAL
basis points even in the eye of and energy crisis but
150
CARDINAL
basis points and this is where the real catch up game begins to come to play. Does that does that even make sense to you
150 200
CARDINAL
basis points by
Christmas
DATE
time from the
UCB
ORG
. Well, we look for the ECB to have to raise have raised to
about one
CARDINAL
. Five. That's the deposit rate by
the spring of next year
DATE
. So, in total, that would be
200
CARDINAL
basis points from the start of this hiking cycle because remember, they began
at negative 50
CARDINAL
basis points. So, the next step in It's likely to be AA moving
September
DATE
of
50
CARDINAL
basis points and then we expect
25
CARDINAL
basis points at each meeting after that until
March
DATE
. Okay, David, thank you very much. Let, let's see what
September
DATE
brings to us.
David Popp
PERSON
, our senior, your economist for
Bloomberg
PERSON
economics. Coming up, the perfect storm, we discussed the
Euro
ORG
slide, Across the region. Later in the program. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Is it possible the industries in an arms race that will Lead to spending itself into an over I mean that has happened before. We we've looked at this very carefully and yo the digitalization of everything tell me what aspect of your life Emily isn't becoming more digital Prevent that but yes. Hey COVID has accelerated that. The industry cost
500 1 billion dollars
MONEY
last year
DATE
. The semi conductor industry overall and estimator are
one 1 trillion dollars
MONEY
. A doubling by
the end of the decade
DATE
. At that point. I believe those estimates. It's not that there's not gonna be some blitz and turns on the way and the majority of that is driven by Technology can satisfy that needle. As the world watches inflation rise employment rebound Economic policy symposium.
Bloomberg
PERSON
's all-star team is alive as policy makers and financial insiders discuss the economic issues and solutions that keep the world's money moving It has been mostly a dollar story.
Europe
LOC
hasn't under performed as much as I think it should. I think the the
FX
ORG
market is totally miss pricing. The situation you're the situation is a complete rethink of the economic model near your zone. And I I'm just it is struggle. It's strange for all of us to see the euro. Sending off so slowly. I think it should be much We'll be testing
97 50
CARDINAL
down towards
ยข95
PERSON
in
the next few months
DATE
.
Jordan Rochester
PERSON
there no.
Slowly I think it should be much faster we'll be testing
97 50
CARDINAL
down towards
ยข95
PERSON
in
the next few months
DATE
Jordan Rochester
PERSON
there no you're a G 10
FX
ORG
straw just manage who says that we could see euro hitting
ยข95
PERSON
we certainly punctured below
Waffling
PERSON
with that and that's perhaps The reason why the euro hasn't had as dramatic of a Perhaps we've been ignoring just how bad things might get in the region. And the very essence of
Rod Rochester
PERSON
had to say goes to the heart of the issue which is the explosion and energy crisis. Let's have a look at the
Euro
PERSON
dollar and the euro on the crosses. You were talking about it at Seen below a
20 year
DATE
low and again cascading lower all the way down as you can see there Danny at down over
one%
ORG
in
the past 2 days
DATE
. Let me just show you what's going on in the energy market. This will bring to Kiran Ganash or Gast Is the explosion in energy prices for
France
GPE
and
Germany
GPE
at you're looking at Electricity
1 year
DATE
forward in
French
NORP
and
German
NORP
electricity prices
German
NORP
benchmark year ahead prices hit โฌ
700
MONEY
per mega
1 hour
TIME
for the
first
ORDINAL
time ever
yesterday
DATE
and that is hitting the region it's facing a multitude of Your issues right now. The fallout from the war in
Ukraine
GPE
driving the energy in the food costs. A severe dright. Let's put all of this to
Kieran Ganache
PERSON
. He's the multi-acid strategist for
UBS
ORG
global wealth management.
Karen
PERSON
, good
morning
TIME
.
Honey
ORG
toxic Is the euro at the moment Well it's not in a good spot that's for sure because we've got these surging energy prices and even a hawkish easy beer would seem is more than the
fed
ORG
so
FX
ORG
is a relative game we're expecting to be the euro falling down to
95
CARDINAL
sent against the
US
GPE
dollar over
the next few months
DATE
as well and it's really Deteriorating is putting
the European Central Bank
ORG
in a very difficult position.
Kieran
PERSON
I I might be being a bit dramatic here so so feel free to you know put me in my place but do we even care if you're trying
Possibility of Europe
ORG
freezing of the main growth and the main exporter Being unable to do so in an energy crisis. We meet certainly potentially a very severe headwind for the global economy and particularly if as chancellor Schultz was still talking about earlier on your show at the Deer Me starts shifting their electricity production away from gas and towards
Decline
ORG
inflation that decline in inflation and expectations which is really help support the market over the course of
the past few weeks
DATE
. If we start seeing oil demand rising because of this gas crisis in
Europe
LOC
then you may even have inflation and surprises to come And that could put the whole global picture log into It just seems so ottered every morning you get in the car and you just read one Story after another
Jackson Hole
GPE
rates starting crush euro mangled
China
GPE
imploding And
Mark Hayfully
PERSON
hey sleep at
night
TIME
and B Hi do you deploy
Morgan San Leandro Sheets
ORG
yesterday
DATE
big headline on
Bloomberg Cash
PERSON
was more appealing than stocks no would you agree with that at the moment in the short Look over the short term we think there is more chance at the market falls than than rises I mean I think we have got a lot of uncertainty had a lot has been priced in in terms of a
fed
ORG
pivot in the South Landing I think that these tankers is still gonna be need to be tested and by the market what happens if oil prices start to rise what's going to happen in
winter
DATE
There's a lot of risk that isn't in the market right now. So in the short term and I think there is more chance that stocks fall than rise. And I think what we're talking about with investors as well. What if they do rise do you still have a plan to make sure that you're getting invested for the long term? Is that supposed the big risk for our clients in this kind of period? Is it the volatility perturbed them from the market
3 or 4 years
DATE
and so
And then they never get back in over the course of
3 or 4 years
DATE
and that's when it gets really costly. Yeah, yeah,
Karen
PERSON
. To this idea that, you know, we we don't have a grip on on exactly how things will look. I mean, everyone was transfixed by the city story
yesterday
DATE
that inflation in the
UK
GPE
could reach
18%
PERCENT
in a gas crisis. Are you For this kind of environment right now. Or we're expecting to see pain weakness as well we're looking at
115
CARDINAL
against the
US
GPE
dollar coming up and you know I think the bank of
England
GPE
was already forecasting
13%
PERCENT
and before the latest surgery we've had in energy prices so been really very very significant adjustment is taking place In
Europe
LOC
to this change in in power prices and it's gonna take a very long time for it to work through in terms of
FX
ORG
raids and the implications for the broader economies so now I think for for investors you know staying well diversified at this time is really important and
New Europe
LOC
is not a place that It pays to take that go bats right now But you'd still sort of favor the
US
GPE
's is my sense on on reading. I like what you say which is use these rallies and we have had monster rally in
July
DATE
and
August
DATE
to technically lighten up the portfolio. I presume that that is don't chase the rally but reduce your excess exposure. Where Reduce exposure the most. Oh we think in technology is
one
CARDINAL
area where we are are concerned because we have seen that big rally recently and you know of course parts of that spectrum are cyclical as well think about some of the digital media names I think about the
Names
ORG
. So we're talking about lightening up there. Areas we like are eh energy because we think that is a good hedge Again some of those downside scenarios for portfolios and we also like the
UK
GPE
market perhaps ironically given the situation in the
UK
GPE
but given the weakness in the pound earnings for you head companies are actually holding up relatively well and it is quite a defensive market at the moment Yeah yeah I'm guessing again it's some of those large cap
UK
GPE
names maybe not the domestic plays
Kieran
PERSON
you know this earning season we equity is held up relatively well especially The
US
GPE
but when you look at the global picture especially in
Europe
LOC
and those expose to the energy crisis You expecting are you pricing a severe earnings recession to come in some of these equities? I mean I think we were Minus
15%
PERCENT
earnings grade
four
CARDINAL
starting to get priced in and been able to have this rally over the course of
the past few weeks
DATE
and a lot of that negativity has got priced out and as part of why you know we think there's more chance that we see downside in the near term then upside that summer back concern about growth doesn't need to come The price and before they look more appealing on a tactical basis and out of you. Hi
Barry
PERSON
show you for
Jackson Hole
FAC
we've got the whole world shooting euro dollar shorting software and that that there's anaphylactic shock at the short end of the curve I use fixation Well, in in some ways, the
Fed
ORG
pouring a bit of cold water on this pivot story within could be, could be actually an important factor for the market because one of the key risks that we've been looking at for is this idea that Inflation does fall in the near term because of lower commodity prices and the COVID supply chain issues unwinding and then too many investors get sucked into this rally in believing the story that you know information is now on the constant downward path perhaps even the
fed
ORG
gets soaked into it and then we have a issue mostly during the year perhaps when because How crisis in
Europe
LOC
or yeah other issues wage stickiness inflation surprises to the outside and then you get the pivot that would be much worse so no perhaps it's not the worst thing in the world if the feds pause a bit of cold water from the pivot story at
Jackson Hill
GPE
this week
DATE
. Alright you destroying me here and just daddy's gonna say thank you but can I just say for the record I'm one of the ages that got sucked in I got in the car every day
July
DATE
and
August
DATE
like We can open up the pension statement not anymore. I was gonna say
Karen
PERSON
I'm only thinking you because you know it's a lot of doom and gloom but it's really great to have you.
Not anymore. Leave it there. Gonna say
Karen
PERSON
I'm only thinking you because you know it's a lot of doom and gloom but it's really great to have you
Karen Global
PERSON
wealth management. Hey, maybe we'll end here with something to look forward to. If you've got dollars and you wanna buy a house in the
Hampton
LOC
Now my beer time people selling houses there slashing prices or discuss that a bit next. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. When I started I had no idea it was gonna turn into this. Empire. I don't have any investor. All this is all money in. This is me going on hustling, bringing that money back, and just building, building it, building it, building it. Yeah, I think about a person that was homeless at
one
CARDINAL
point. Didn't really have any money coming in. The fact that this person was relentless and just determined to succeed and not let rock bottom define him as an individual. I can take things and put them together and take them apart and make them better and put them back together I respect the crowd so I don't wanna minimize and disrespect the value of each step of the craft and do by machine what should be done by hand Velocity Danny. Velocity. From
UBS
ORG
's a call Yeah
95
CARDINAL
from
UBS
ORG
seeing some other ones maybe not as dramatic
97
CARDINAL
but we're just hearing from
Kieran Ganache
PERSON
95 as possible manus we're looking at steady declines in the euro
this morning
TIME
down
2 tons
QUANTITY
of a Treating at
99 21
DATE
the drama continues madness even in this low liquidity period. Yeah let's get across to
Jim
PERSON
's we'll come back to the boards in just a moment
Jules
ORG
has got
Juliet Sally's
PERSON
in
Singapore
GPE
with the
first
ORDINAL
word news jewels Matters the
US
GPE
has warned that
Russia
GPE
is preparing to launch intensified strikes against
Ukraine
GPE
's government facilities in
the coming days
DATE
. This after president of
Vladimir Putin
PERSON
called the car bomb that killed the daughter of an ally a quote dastardly crime.
Ukraine
GPE
is preparing to celebrate independence day on
Wednesday which March 6 months
DATE
since
Russia
GPE
's invasion To
Anthony Fauci
PERSON
who became a household name during the pandemic is just stepped down at
the end of the year
DATE
the top
US
GPE
infectious disease expert has run
the national institute of allergy
ORG
and infectious diseases since
1984
DATE
advising
seven
CARDINAL
presidents on every major infectious disease outbreak since the HIV crisis
the 81 year old
DATE
says he's leading The next chapter of his career.
British Airways
ORG
says it is scrapping 5000 return flights in
the coming months
DATE
this after cancelling
about 13%
PERCENT
of its
summer
DATE
scheduled due to a staffing shortage and extended capacity curb curves that it's
London Heathrow
FAC
Hub BA says passengers who've been affected can read
Answering
about 13%
PERCENT
of its
summer
DATE
scheduled due to a staffing shortage and extended capacity curb curves that it's
London Heathrow
FAC
Hub BA says passengers who've been affected can rebook alternative flights or seek refunds. Global news
24 hours
TIME
a day manners
Danny Jill
PERSON
If you do any kind of business in this country, there's a pretty good chance that you're gonna see that business registered in
Delaware
GPE
. Why? Because that's where you do it. And our point was
Wyoming
GPE
can be that venue for blockchain enterprise for crypto Freedom we want that individuality and that's a common theme that brings together bipartisan support for this and why I'm This trend is coming. It's not going to stop. Cryptocurrency version of
Silicon Valley
LOC
. Really get things done for yourself and control your own destiny. You get that from a blockchain and you don't get that without it. It's a really a reminder isn't it just how sensitive the markets are to any commentary about trade we did see some pressure on the
UN
ORG
we did see some pressure on the future that is now being reverse This is
Bloomberg J. B. European Dubai
PERSON
.
Danny Burger
PERSON
alongside me at
London
GPE
HQ with the stories that set your agenda. Crisis compounded
European
NORP
gas prices continue to search ahead of another
Looks
GPE
to
Canada
GPE
and search of alternatives. We are working hard to become independent of this gas supply and we are doing a lot of investments to make it happen and we are doing it as fast as ever possible never
Infrastructure
ORG
has been built in
Germany
GPE
and that is short time. Hello parody recession fears and
winter
DATE
warnings push the euro down to a
two decade
DATE
low concerns grow a further declines. Cut production to curb recent price drops. Man, it's good morning to you. It continues to be the euro taking another leg lower
this morning
TIME
as In
Europe
LOC
is top of everyone's minds. And no central banks to be able to save the currency whether it's sterling Or the euro and it is ultimately no exhaustion in the dollar. I like what
Jordan Rochester
PERSON
has said. Focus in on your dollar. This is
the fourth day in a row
DATE
you've seen the Euro dollar
Two
CARDINAL
. Five% subparity. How much deeper will it go?
95
CARDINAL
say
UBS
ORG
. The
FX
ORG
market is missed pricing. The energy crisis. Those are the words of
Nomora
GPE
's
Jordan Rochester
PERSON
who calls your dollar down to
95
CARDINAL
cable. Even You're looking at the lowest price since
March 2020
DATE
inflation priced at
13%
PERCENT
and you're looking at the central bank pricing in
230
CARDINAL
basis points of height even that This is a dollar story as well.
Since
March 2020
DATE
inflation priced at
13%
PERCENT
and you're looking at a central bank pricing in
230
CARDINAL
basis points of heights even that can't save starting this is a dollar As well as an energy crisis and economic vortex above
Europe
LOC
and
the United Kingdom
GPE
find themselves in oil whether you're gonna build a floor get royalty to the front door that's what they say is
Royal Highness
ORG
prince of dollars is Production saves all Danny. Minutes I'm gonna be pretty quick here with this equity check because I think what you're showing there it's what's moving these markets it's the deterioration in the euro in a pounds Moving equities we are now seeing some pre substantial losses here down to tense of
one%
ORG
for this feature session. Yeah I didn't take long to kill off the summer of love and use above three% of course on seating the technology rally to the
German
NORP
Parish
NORP
she's searching above โฌ
700
MONEY
a mega After the
first
ORDINAL
time as
Marcus
NORP
panic quite literally panic over the country's dependence on
Russian
NORP
energy supplies the chance that as we just turn a dollar Schultz is in
Canada
GPE
part of the push to find the alternative resources to gas emphasizing that his government Working hard to end the dependence on rushing gas. We are working hard to become independent of this gas supply and we are doing a lot of investments to make it happen and we are doing it as fast as ever possible Never such an infrastructure has been built in
Germany
GPE
and that is short time.
Easing Processes
ORG
because of the difficulty that that
Germany
GPE
is facing to make sure that we can move through regulatory hurdles more quickly is something we're willing to do but there needs to be a business case it needs to make sense Let's get to our correspondent
Inberlin
PERSON
it is
Burger Yan Bergert
PERSON
the scale of the crisis is laid by in the market in terms of energy prices electricity prices how palpable is it at home in
Germany
GPE
where you are how real Is the energy crisis? Well I think at the moment people are just sort of getting by I mean the people are cutting back a little bit on their own consumption also actually with lightening with heatening up the the water basically But really people haven't yet hit the the real effect it can have if gas is going to be cut further back so that we will have to see may the government
Working
GPE
really hard to make sure that during the winter time people basically can still heat their homes and that industry at the same time can continue to produce but for that they really need to stock up They are they are their gas storage and and they also need to make some other changes and and in order to fill the gaps so therefore there are for example looking at keeping nuclear plants working but really when we talk to the government they say maybe we're gonna get through
this winter
DATE
but really the next winter when the store just are then really empty That will be a problem A burger, you know, in terms of the government reaction here. You're talking about, you know, dealing with industry but government reaction, politics when it comes to dealing with people who are not gonna be pork 'cuz they're paying more for Potentially dealing with people who are having rolling blackouts what is fiscal policy going to do when it comes to addressing these sorts of issues That's a very good question. So far the finance minister
Linda
PERSON
is saying we can do this all without actually losing the constitutional deathbreak and actually keeping to the strict limit Of keeping a debt under control but really one has to see what this going to happen when really during the winter people will feel the extra cost in their bill and all with this late lava so therefore we have to How was the discussion is going? I think, you know, a lint not also doesn't want to be seen as moving too quickly into a further expansionary policies. So, therefore that he is holding up but the pressure is clearly building up because the government is also currently thinking of another package of measures. Really we do wonder how is this is going to be financed In terms of
Also currently thinking of another package of measures. So really we do wonder how is this is going to be financed? In terms of energy rationing that's part of the debate nuclear as part of the debate coal reigniting coal are all on the table what is the
Toxic
ORG
policy Chancellor to pursue Lit king survive. The thing is it's it has to be a mixture of everything. I mean, they they need on the one hand, they need to make sure what I said before that the energy supply is sort of maintenance and that the economy continues to run. So, that Crucial in order to for the government and for the mood in
Germany
GPE
not to switch so there is already now a risk and we do see if people becoming a frustrated windshaws is going especially to eastern
Germany
GPE
there are already some kind of unrest or at least protests And that I'm also his own party is going to be continue to back in because once he is losing popular His own party will also increase pressure and then In this
three
CARDINAL
party coalition will become more difficult Alright Burgutt thank you very much
Bloomberg
PERSON
's
Burnett Burgutt Yenen
PERSON
throughout
the morning
TIME
helping us with this story let's get into it more fun a bowl head of commodities at S and P
Dow Jones
ORG
indeceased joints now and and
Fiona
PERSON
burget there The political story and I love what you write in your notes that natural gas now rivals oil as the commodity shaping geopolitics given the pressure that politicians are feeling with this crisis
Folding
WORK_OF_ART
. Are you seeing mistakes being made with how we're addressing the energy crisis right now? I think we're, you know, if you're a politician
today
DATE
, if you're an energy minister
today
DATE
, you probably got one of the toughest jobs going around and it's certainly One that that I'd like to take on your as as you've been talking about this morning you know
Germany
GPE
has built up if we use
Germany
GPE
as an example has built up dependency on
Russia
GPE
over
decades
DATE
and is now trying to switch that within
a matter of months
DATE
and some of the alternatives Have over the short or the medium term I relatively unpalatable be that coal or a
Tommy Kennedy
PERSON
so they've got a really tough gig
Fiona
PERSON
always good to get you on this show so here we are record prices
1 year
DATE
forward in
France
GPE
and
Germany
GPE
everybody saying oh it it's getting worse but have we even begun to extrapulate where
Russia
GPE
switches off the tabs Before
the end of the year
DATE
. Well,
Russia
GPE
has weaponized energy. They still have the option to to Genuinely extra Reopen the real weaponization of oil and gas before the sanctions kick in at
Christmas
DATE
. I think history would tell us that markets rarely price in the worst case scenario. So, that is something certainly to consider. Now, you know, we have seen them turn off the taps on and off. We'd see that they're turning off
North Streams
LOC
to again for At
the end of the month
DATE
. But are you maybe the market is not at yet pricing you know a worst case scenario?
Fiona
PERSON
, what's it gonna take for us to price that worst case scenario? What's the catalyst going to be? I think the catalyst will unfortunately be the action which is the cutting off your while while there is still some gas flowing while
Europe
LOC
is still buying some
Russian
NORP
oil you know mark it participants have some pope that We'll get through
this winter
DATE
. I now becoming increasingly concerned
about next winter
DATE
and the winter after that and I think that that may be the catalyst when that expectation that this is not a short-term event becomes more prevalent in the market.
Fiona
PERSON
I'm furiously looking up my ticker for cold You know if I take my mind back to the last cop
So put us again in a in a really difficult position
Verna
GPE
you know I I'm thinking about the volatility we've seen it in trading really a cross commodities be it be it oil be it the energy story and the fact that it's happening in
August
DATE
the
summer
DATE
Everybody's
ORG
away
Happens
PERSON
when everyone gets back to their desks
Fiona
PERSON
what does trading look like after
the summer
DATE
? We've definitely seen the oil market you know in in
Anything
GPE
increase in volatility and I think some of that comes from the fact that trading volumes are low. I think trading volumes are low though not just because all of those all traders are in the south of
France
GPE
or the Hamptons. I think it's because there's general uncertainty about where prices are going. And that sort of con Between, yeah, we do have still a very tight global oil market. But that's against the backdrop of, you know, high US dollar, increasing interest rates, and growing concern about about economic slowdown. So, I'm not sure even when those all traders come back Holidays whether that In these markets will pick back up Come on Fiona night they're all traded from
Laval Rouge
ORG
eh in the south of
France
GPE
they have they haven't stopped trading ehm they just have another large glass of eh whatever does it get through the vault speaking of which Extreme volatility there's a disconnect between the futures and the physical secretary general tells me it's mighty tight I love it there's just a sketch of freenia Not in my mind but in the oil market. So, High disconnected are the futures to the physical tightness. Look I always think futures markets do a good job of representing what's happening in the physical market I think they can be short periods
Time
ORG
where maybe there is a slight disconnect but as I said I think the mark the oil market
today
DATE
the oil drivities market
today
DATE
is is telling us that there's massive uncertainty and that there is no yet no consensus around your what's happening in terms of tight supply versus how much demand I'm off. So, I think the markets are doing their job. And Hey Facebook Do you think is right do you think ABS is flying not quite about schizophre Is that a smoke screen for him to cut to hit to make room for a ram? Do you think that's what he's doing? Kite flying? I mean he he certainly talking you don't book and you know I know it's important to note that that
OPAC
ORG
is not currently meeting it's target production so I'm not sure at
the end of the day
DATE
even if there was an announcement of a cut what that would actually mean for the physical market it may mean we don't see Much changed because they're already, you know, not reaching their current targets. Thank you very much. Punch in a line though if you wanna bowl head of commodities and S and P by
Jones
PERSON
. Coming up in the show with
Danny
PERSON
and myself
Brace, Brace, Brace
ORG
, the PMIs are heading the slade in
just under 20 minutes
TIME
. A perfect storm. Rocketing inflation, slowing growth, gathering pace
Another quarter
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
this
Tuesday
DATE
morning
TIME
on
Bloomberg
GPE
.
China
GPE
's appetite for energy is enormous. The country consumes about a
China
GPE
's appetite for energy is enormous. The country consumes about a quarter of the world's energy supply
35%
PERCENT
more than the
US
GPE
annually
DATE
. It's energy needs more than triple since
the year 2000
DATE
. That consumption has helped to feel astonishing growth. But it's come at a cost.
China
GPE
is the world's largest greenhouse gasimater. There is no way to tackle climate change unless
China
GPE
reduces its emissions to
NZ
GPE
. The countries reliance on fossil fuels is also a hindrance to its own growth and the well being of its citizens. It has a long standing pollution problem and it is also prone to outages that severely hump All this has led the world's biggest polluter to take steps towards a radical transformation. Are we in some sort of calculation fears moment people are talking about that
all day
DATE
yesterday
DATE
It's take break your appointment screening in
Dubai
GPE
Danny Burger
PERSON
alongside me in
London
GPE
let's get a business flash headlines from around the world
Judith Sally's
PERSON
with us in
Singapore
GPE
.
Matt
PERSON
I see you on
Moscato
PRODUCT
his long time friend former
Twitter
PERSON
CEO
Jack Dorsey
PERSON
and his legal battle with the social media giant
Mask
PERSON
is seeking to collect documents and data to show that
Twitter
PRODUCT
understated how It's customer base is made up of spam and robot accounts
dozens
CARDINAL
of people have now been subpoenaed by both sides ahead of the expedited trial in
October
DATE
. Forward is cutting
3000
CARDINAL
jobs
this week
DATE
to fund its shift towards electric vehicles. The cuts will come primarily in the
US
GPE
with some positions also eliminated in
Canada
GPE
and
India
GPE
. CEO
Jim Farley
PERSON
has repeatedly said the company has
Workers Ford
ORG
wants to spend
50 1 billion dollars
MONEY
to build
two 1 million
CARDINAL
electric vehicles
a year
DATE
by
2026
DATE
. Zoom shares feeling
US
GPE
late trade after it projected sales and profit for
the current quarter
DATE
below estimates it says
annual
DATE
sales growing to
about $four
MONEY
.
4 billion
CARDINAL
down from its projection in
May
DATE
of
as much as four
CARDINAL
. 55 billion zooms pandemic boom has called considerably as officers reopen and competition in From
Microsoft Teams
FAC
and that is your
Bloomberg
GPE
business flash Danny.
George
PERSON
thanks so much
Julie
PERSON
and
Sally
PERSON
there in
Singapore
GPE
and we got a slew of
European
NORP
PMIs this morning for
August
DATE
they're gonna provide more insight into the challenges facing the euro area economy throwing energy cost And rest for more we're joined now by
David Powell
PERSON
senior girl area economist for
Bloomberg Economics David
ORG
how should we be viewing the
PMI
ORG
's we get
this morning
TIME
considering that there's a big odd for more deterioration for
the months
DATE
coming How much they slide from the readings we saw in
July
DATE
so in
July
DATE
the number for the the composite number was already in negative territory signaling that the economy was contracting and that was led by difficulty in the manufacturing sector so we Did that get a lot worse in
August
DATE
and that will give us a sense of of what businesses are trying to contend with right now as those energy prices sore and is the threat of
Russia
GPE
cutting off the gas moons. David the debate is is where we are with inflation. If we look at the energy narrative and energy inflation is up
some 40
CARDINAL
year% on year
DATE
. I think
Valerie Queen
PERSON
of Chance has a chart on that which we can have a look at. It is becoming on board it is becoming on tethered you can no longer just say it's AA temporary drift hire Yeah and the problem is it's not just energies so we're seeing higher prices price increase
A temporary drift hire Yeah and the problem is it's not just energy so we're seeing higher prices or price increases in the cost of food which is also a result of the war in
Ukraine
GPE
and we're also seeing that broadening out to most of the goods in the basket of the basket That's used to calculate inflation, the goods and the services. So essentially it's becoming more widespread. And not only are we worried about the actual inflation numbers but also we're seeing signs of life in in waging creases and that that is a signal of further inflation down When when it comes to sort of inflation expectations getting in
French
LANGUAGE
I wonder what fiscal policy does to exacerbate this or make this better
Bloomberg
PERSON
has a story a scoop of What happens if if there are more government subsidies to to help folks you know pay out for what's gonna be much more expensive Will the economy is already operating at capacity I'm in the
UK
GPE
Which is very very tight unemployment at a very low level and that's also the case of urine unemployments at a 40 year low. And so essentially if there were more stimulus from the government that would stoke inflationary pressures because because Is already operating at capacity. I think the the the best way to to think about the physical spending is to target those most in needs. So you don't want kind of just broad giveaways to everyone. But the most vulnerable in society. Which is really what actually sent for banks have been saying
ECB
ORG
's been saying we need to target these subsidies so those most in need get But we we can't have this huge stimulus package that's more broad based. David thank you so much
David Powell
PERSON
setting the store for the PMIs which will hit the tape shortly we'll bring that to you our senior euro area economist
four
CARDINAL
Bloomberg
PERSON
economics coming up Under pressure. Hey use fail to save the point we talk
FX
ORG
on
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Is it possible the industries in an arms race that will Lead to spending itself into an over supply. I mean, that has happened before We we we've looked at this very carefully and yo, the digitalization of everything. Tell me what aspect of your life Emily isn't becoming more digital. Well, I'm trying to prevent that but yeah. Hey COVID has accelerated that. The industry cost
500 1 billion dollars
MONEY
last year
DATE
. The semiconductor industry overall Estimator are
one 1 trillion dollars
MONEY
. A doubling by
the end of the decade
DATE
. At that point, I believe those estimates. It's not that there's not gonna be some blitz and turns on the way and the majority of that is driven by Process technology of which
only three
CARDINAL
companies can satisfy that need. On the David Rubenstein show Your conversations. I uncover the untold stories of the world's most successful leaders. Watch
Wednesdays
DATE
on
Bloomberg Television
ORG
.
It's
Bloomberg Daybreak
PERSON
Have a look at
this 2 years
DATE
we've show Couple of times is this week Danny the pine's still getting crushed on the crosses and on the outright against the triumphant dollar this is what the mark of things is gonna happen to 2 year use so we've got this move and by the way
231
CARDINAL
basis points of hikes are priced in for by
May of next year
DATE
and still the point And this
FX
ORG
narrative Danny is pervasive isn't it
this morning
TIME
? Hey it certainly is it leads to a lot of people saying quite chickly that you know pound and euro trading like an EM currency that even the rate spread isn't helping to lift them as
18%
PERCENT
inflation in the
UK
GPE
is what they're predicting if we get a gas crisis so this is inflation being priced into those yields man is what ECB what can a beer we do to curb inflation if it's coming from a gas crisis? There's a lovely line in the piece by
Jordan Rochester
PERSON
. I mean, he'll get more, he'll get more
Twitter
PERSON
followers than both of us put together in
one
CARDINAL
stick
this morning
TIME
but the bottom line for him is that the
FX
ORG
market
FX
ORG
is underpricing he surprised that it's not a more aggressive slump in the or there it is on the cross as Da Yep you're a falling virtually against everything
Rochester
PERSON
saying that look we've been focusing too much perhaps on that towel narrative but manus markets certainly alive and awake to the issue when it comes to
European
NORP
recession more market Text this is blue bird. Nurturing also can come from men and it's one of the qualities I guess that you found in your mentors that also pushed you up. Do we need even more monitoring post pandemic? Is there is the way that we, you know, talk with employees going to change? I think talent becomes a single Different shape of a successful entity versus an answer So you gotta do everything possible to hire Put your arms around talent. Show them that they have a upward mobility and can make even more money and that's the only reason people come to work. I think post pandemic. I have to worry about me as a person. I have to worry about my family. I wanna worry about my well being. My mental health. So we've got to start Which means that we have to engage with that head art and hands not just head and hands the heart has been engaged so we have to be so more empathy show show that we share that your The community, the members of the family, and all of those have to come into consideration as we
Citizen to the community the members of a family and all of those have to come into consideration as we help an executive employee
Community
ORG
and the family. Hey Facebook Blueberries.
Bloomberg
PERSON
technology. Good
morning
TIME
welcome to Bloomberg Market so you're reply manner
Edwards
ORG
live in
London Mark
ORG
have more our markets live managing editor joins us from
Singapore
GPE
to take us through all of the market action
this hour
TIME
the cash trade is just
less than an hour
TIME
away so here Top headlines. The next test euro area PM eyes Global stocks continue that move lower after equities saw their worst route in
2 months
DATE
European
NORP
and
US
GPE
features dip plus Opec on alert crew prices pair losses after Warns the alliance could cut production to curb recent price drops Here in
London
GPE
. Good
morning
TIME
. What are the
Saying
LOC
to you. Good morning I know what it feels very similar to the last couple of sessions and I'm afraid that's not particularly good news we've seen that general kind of risk a version again we're seeing concern about the
European
NORP
crisis we're seeing this idea of generally higher yields over
the last 24 hours
TIME
it's not really a changing theme unfortunately it's a negative theme though It isn't negative theme. Let's dive into some of the detail there. We're
just under an hour
TIME
away from the starts of cash equities trading in
Europe
LOC
and it doesn't seem as if we've got an end to that Perhaps expected to fair a little worse which might be a surprise given we are seeing that rebounding oil prices coming through a little 97 oh two is when we trade on
Brent's
ORG
in terms of where we were
yesterday
DATE
we dropped more than
two%
ORG
on the
German
NORP
Benchmark the dacks of course we drop more than
two%
ORG
on the Nasdaq and the S and P so there was broad based weakness during
yesterday
DATE
's session this is the future's picture for
Europe
LOC
then for this morning
US
GPE
features also looking flat to negative
Hiring
GPE
. The
European
NORP
energy story and all of that adding up to something that looks pretty negative than
Mark
PERSON
. What does it look like on the
GMM
ORG
? Well, actually all those
US
GPE
features, they were in the green most of the morning. There's only a couple of hours ago. They suddenly went red but we are seeing that general theme of risk conversion across the board. Nothing too extreme. Probably most interesting is the
FX
ORG
collar. That's where we're really the attention is
this week
DATE
with the
Euro
PERSON
dollar sloping blow party. It's a sterling in free falls. Well, a general dollar strength. The
Bloomberg
PERSON
dollar Getting close that record high again and we're seeing that very much in the theme across the board
today
DATE
. And that underlying theme is very valid. There's a chance in fact that I could accelerate at some Soon. And of course going into that is the idea of higher yields across the board. Lower stocks, general risk conversion. Commodities been a bit more mixed. Oil has been
today
DATE
. Doesn't show up because I had such volatility earlier on
this year
DATE
that A really big move to move to command to this screen but oil's a little bit higher and that's providing another little kind of buffer for a commodities generally. Okay so a bit more mix on the corners he's front
Mark
PERSON
let's talk about the markets then in
3 minutes
TIME
and I want More than
two%
ORG
on some of these major markets but there there's been talk chatter in
Hong Kong
GPE
about maybe tweaking some of the quarantine rules that doesn't seem to be lifting stocks. All that much. What do you think it is that's weighing on the
Asia
LOC
sentiment? Is it all
Chinese
NORP
growth. What's interesting is there's not just
one
CARDINAL
single drivers. There's just this pervading negativity out there. I think probably the biggest Issue four Market.
What's interesting is there's not just
one
CARDINAL
single drivers. There's just this pervading negativity out there. I think probably the biggest You
four
CARDINAL
markets at the moment is the
European
NORP
energy crisis and that still feels underpriced in
European
NORP
assets particularly
European
NORP
stocks but that is
one
CARDINAL
kind of market that's dragged down and that is of course
European
NORP
Is
one
CARDINAL
of the kind of
three
CARDINAL
big pillars of the world economy. So, that's a really big issue. Then, the
US
GPE
, people are specifically worried about the event risk of
Jackson Hole
GPE
. It's a little bit more new The medium term as you know I'm very firmly in the kind of bearish camp for stocks over
the next 6 months
DATE
over
the next year
DATE
but I don't have a particularly you know worry about the next week but I think because of
Jackson Hall
FAC
people are trading that medium term negativity more aggressively and then of course when you come to
China
GPE
not only has the data Terrible I think that's not the surprising bit it's the fact that that the PBSC and the government all their measures have failed to stimulate any sort of rebound and Anna say this Who is in the camp of expecting quite negative
Chinese
NORP
growth
this year
DATE
but I thought that accidents would be propped up by the policy moves and that is just Happened? And what you call the underpricing of the energy risks at Maybe this is underpricing Effects. Below parity. It dropped back down below that to get
today
DATE
. Oh spot 9921 is where we trade. But you think actually there's more room to move on stocks. So I I look I'm I'm very embarrassed you're a star I still think
Giro
PERSON
has much more downside and I have a lot of symptoms in the mirror of you and look I'm a macro guy which means Think of Barnes and
FX
ORG
before I kind of go to stock markets as my default but I think from here that it's it's the risk reward idea the euro has a lot more downside but they're gonna be really big squeezes. We know that the market is generally very long dollars. They are short euros. It's a consensus Of you and also the yield story here is more complicated cuz what we're facing is a major inflation crisis and yes it's a supply site inflation problem
Two
CARDINAL
aggressively but they still need to stop that inflation feed into inflation expectations and changing the game so ultimately we're gonna have squeezes where yield suddenly go higher that makes the euro move more complicated where it's just unembiguously bad for
European
NORP
stocks over
the next 6 months
DATE
Okay and you're pretty glimmy about socks more generally I was reading your macro view very depressing as it was I mean if for anybody longest stocks it might be a depressing read
Mark
PERSON
but I wanted to mention that the
Stanford University
ORG
economics
John Taylor
PERSON
says there's still time to nip inflation in the bud his words and to avoid a recession you'd very much don't see it that way. So he said we need to get rates to five% which remember is
about 100
CARDINAL
basis points above what we're pricing in the market Already scared the market. So, I think if we get his policy action, we'll get a real big collapse in stocks anyway and I do think it will cause probably a session but maybe a softer one if we're active proactive
Okay Mark
PERSON
thanks for those thoughts remember you can get up to date to analysis from
Mark
PERSON
and the rest of the markets live team MLIVO is the function to use on your terminal let us get a Bloom Bay first wave
Morning Alice
FAC
how do you Says Opec and his allies may be forced to cut output as the future market has become increasingly disconnected from fundamentals. Prince
Abdulazi
GPE
's been Solomon told
Bloomberg
PERSON
harmful volatility is disturbing the basic functions of the market.
Opec
ORG
plus meets
next month
DATE
to consider production target
Justin Trudeau
PERSON
says
Canada
GPE
would be willing to consider easing the regulatory burden on new gas export facilities to
Europe
LOC
but warns the business case must be made
first
ORDINAL
speaking at a Conference with
Germany
GPE
's oh
Love Schultz a Canadian PM
WORK_OF_ART
said the challenge is that any new gas terminals in
Canada
GPE
's eastern shore would be far from its western gas fields The
US
GPE
has warned that
Russia
GPE
is preparing to launch intensified strikes against
Ukraine
GPE
's government facilities in
the coming days
DATE
. This after President
Vladimir Putin
PERSON
called the car bomb that killed the daughter of an ally a quote Dartedly crime.
Ukraine
GPE
is preparing to celebrate independence day on
Wednesday
DATE
which also marks
6 months
DATE
since
Russia
GPE
's invasion.
British Airways
ORG
says it's wrapping about 5000 return flights in
the coming months
DATE
that's after cancelling
about 13%
PERCENT
of its
summer
DATE
schedule due to a staffing shortage and extended capacity curbs at
London Heathrow
FAC
Hub BA says passengers who've been affected
Cancelling
about 13%
PERCENT
of its
summer
DATE
scheduled due to a staffing shortage and extended capacity curves at its
London Heathrow
ORG
hub
BA
ORG
says passengers who've been affected can rebook alternative flights or seat refunds. And Doctor
Anthony Fauci
PERSON
who became a household name during the pandemic is to step down at
the end of the year
DATE
. The top
US
GPE
infectious disease expert has run
the national institute
ORG
And infectious diseases since
1984
DATE
. Advising
seven
CARDINAL
pace
seven
CARDINAL
presidents on every major infectious disease outbreaks since the HIV crisis. The
81 year old
DATE
says he is leaving to pursue the next chapter of his career. Global news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air no
Bloomberg
PERSON
quick take pub by
more than 2700
CARDINAL
journalists and analysts in
more than 120
CARDINAL
countries this is
Bloomberg Anna Alice
PERSON
thanks very much
Alice Atkins
PERSON
here in
London
GPE
Up on the program we'll get back to the energy story more on that oil story and facts our
Saudi Arabia
GPE
warns volatility in the oil market may force opac plus to cut output we will get the latest on energy plus
China
GPE
Up next though Euro woes the common currency fell to a new
two decade
DATE
low we haven't been as low as 2002 and could suffer even more we will Strategy. If you have any questions, you want us to put to our guests, please do get in touch. IB plus TV goes to function to do that on your blue bag. This is bling bag. When I started I had no idea it was gonna turn into this. Empire. I don't have any investor. All this is all money in. This is me going on hustling, bringing that money back, and just building, building it, building it, building it. Yeah, I think about a person that was homeless at
one
CARDINAL
point. Didn't really have any money coming in. The fact that this person was relentless and just determined to succeed and not let rock bottom define him as an individual. I can take things and put them together and take them apart and make them better and put them back together I respect the crowd so I don't wanna minimize and disrespect the value of each step of the craft and do by machine what should be done by hand It has been mostly a dollar story
Europe
LOC
hasn't under performed as much as I think it should I think the the
FX
ORG
market is totally missed pricing the situation you're the situation is a complete rethink of the economic model in the euros zone and I'm just it is struggle it's strange for all of us to see the euro selling off so slowly I In
the next few months
DATE
John Rochester
PERSON
there in the mirror is G
10
CARDINAL
FX
ORG
strategist on the perfect storm that's engulfing the euro at the moment the Euro Strategist say the drop is just the beginning of a deeper descent for the currency we heard
Jordan
PERSON
making that point just there let's get another perspective
Chris Turner
PERSON
joins us IG
Strategist say the drop is just the beginning of a deeper descent for the currency we heard
Jordan
PERSON
making that point just there let's get another perspective
Chris Turner
PERSON
joins us I and G head of
FX
ORG
strategy at
Chris
PERSON
good
morning
TIME
to you We have to ask how low does it go? We are now back below parity. We heard Jordan giving his view there. What are your thoughts on how how low it goes and how quickly I suppose Points. Yeah, I think right at the moment
now
DATE
, we're really sort of in this sort of male strom really of this sort of energy crisis in
Europe
LOC
and I think it's
Jordan
PERSON
mentioned as well so there's reassessment of
European
NORP
Lot of particularly the
German
NORP
business model importing cheap energy taking advantage of globalization adding value and exporting products around the world. We've seen the
German
NORP
trade surplus so it'll be wiped out which is you know a full reassessment of that
European
NORP
kind of business model. In light of that it's unsurprising to see
kinda
GPE
year down here at
Party
ORG
and I wouldn't disagree with the kind of levels that kinda
Jordan
GPE
mentioned there so I think one of the key things we're telling customers is that if you see your daughter and you think it looks super But actually the fair value of Euro has been damaged by this energy crisis and maybe you can't rule out it moving, you know, another
10
CARDINAL
big figures, lowest from here. Yeah, and by that reassessment of the growth model that you just tried,
Chris
PERSON
. Jumping. Yeah
Chris
PERSON
one of the things I'm curious about is you just mentioned that at the end it's about the idea we could suddenly go to the
10
CARDINAL
big figure See me
this year
DATE
has been uptick in volatility. Trends going further, moves going slightly further. I guess what I'm curious about is given the positioning in dollar. Is a bearish year of you? Is it still best to play it versus the Or is there are we approaching the time when you wanna start playing up versus some of the currency? Hey we're just hearing you in the early a segment mark being sort of very negative in terms of the the global growth environment and kinda exit that equities so yeah I'd say probably still against the dill I think you'd really sort of back with
Jackson Holland
GPE
Friday
DATE
and I think we are in a slate stage of a kind of
US
GPE
business cycle. Traditionally so positive for the dollar against particularly the activity currencies as well and given what's going on in
Europe
LOC
as well I think You play week a year I think versus a dollar given AA quite a difficult trading environment over
the next 3 to 6 months
DATE
People have been talking about how surging yields in the
Eurosone
ORG
. I have failed to show up currencies. I mean, I know
Mark
PERSON
's got some thoughts on real deals which will get to you later and that The whole explanation. Don't necessarily understand yet how to trade this. They don't know whether to, you know, be buying bonds because of risk of version or selling bonds cuz you're concerned about what physical authorities might do, how much money they might be giving away. There anything that can sure up the euro in the face of these challenges Yeah you would have thought the so I suppose ECB and we've heard the comments from
Isbell
ORG
last week
DATE
that this year dollar client decline is unwelcome it's an energy price shock it's a dollar shock really impacting
the years
DATE
in terms of trade so negative income shock which is Clearly so weighing on the euro here and to try and get the euro higher from here I mean obviously it seems I likely that the gas store is gonna turn around or the energy crisis is gonna resolve itself very quickly you'd have to expect a far more aggressive In terms of what they're prepared to do with canopy rates but I think we at ING think that we will just have
150
CARDINAL
basis point further rate height from the east to be in
September
DATE
then that will be it for the cycle so the market is pricing about 125 we think they're only gonna deliver 50 and you can probably conclude that's not a particularly a positive outlet for
the year end
DATE
in that environment
Chris
PERSON
we're picking on the euro quite significantly
this morning
TIME
but of course there's another basket case currently in the region and that is the pound. You're a sterling. Which side of the range does it break
first
ORDINAL
? We're right in the middle of the 1 year range.
82 Seven
CARDINAL
. We're right in the middle of that right now. Which side does it break
first
ORDINAL
? I've got us a slightly a view that's against the market here where I think
Sterling
ORG
can actually hold up better than most people think. Obviously, quite negative grace environment. You know, Entering
several quarters
CARDINAL
of recession with
the Bank of England
ORG
kinda tightening so very
kinda
GPE
inverted curves coming up but I think guilt investors and what they're gonna do with their H ratios particularly when you've got short end rates going well above
two% Bank
ORG
finger being quite aggressive. I think it's gonna be difficult for them to have high effects head ratios and they guilt holding. So I think actually the bond portfolio manager
You're being quite aggressive. I think it's gonna be difficult for them to have high effects ratios and they're guilt holding. So I think actually the bond portfolio managers reducing their head ratios on guilt could be
one
CARDINAL
thing that prevents a pound from from your sterling for example breaking well up of
85
CARDINAL
. So I think perhaps we do go back down to Or so. Okay and how much does that rely on
the Bank of England
ORG
being able to deliver more rate hikes because there doesn't be a nervousness as some quarters that their ability to do that might be limited. Yeah. Very much so I'd say that's the key thing you know there'd be anything kind of affecting the pandemic. Yeah. Yes so I think definitely for the bank of England they will have to deliver probably another
50
CARDINAL
basis points in
September
DATE
and you know so much is pricing to
next year
DATE
rates at
three and a half percent
DATE
we think they can get nowhere near there but probably they'll talk hawkishly as a shirt at this stage and the cycle with the inflation hump into the rest of
this year
DATE
and I think as I say I think Keep the pound relatively support against a euro but obviously the dollar will be king in the current environment. Okay, we'll talk about that more in a moment.
Chris
PERSON
, thanks very much. Christina, I and she's head of
FX
ORG
strategy stays with us. Coming up will be taking you through the key events in the diary for
today
DATE
including
day two
DATE
Daughter
ORG
's trip to
Canada
GPE
the
German
NORP
chancellor was there talking energy of course that's up It's just been back. Economic policy symposium
Bloomberg
PERSON
's all-star team is alive as policy makers and financial insiders discuss the economic issues and solutions that keep the world's money moving If you do any kind of business in this country, there's a pretty good chance that you're gonna see that business registered in
Delaware
GPE
. Why? Because that's where you do it And our point was
Wyoming
GPE
can beat that venue for blockchain enterprise for crypto Freedom we want that individuality and that's a common theme that brings together bipartisan support for this and why I'm This trend is coming. It's not going to stop. Is more of a small town that's growing into without a call that cryptocurrency version of
Silicon Valley
LOC
. Really get things done for yourself and control your own destiny. You get that from a blockchain and you don't get that without it. Welcome back to Binberg Market Europe
a week
DATE
out for
40 minutes
TIME
still to go until the start of cash out when he's trading this is what the
European
NORP
future's picture looks like right now She's deteriorated quite a bit. I should say
US
GPE
features now
Nasa
ORG
features down
half a percent
PERCENT
emails down
three tenths of a percent
CARDINAL
now
this morning
TIME
we'll have
PMI
ORG
's coming through in
Half a percent
Three tenths of a percent
QUANTITY
. Now
this morning
TIME
we'll have
PMI
ORG
's coming through in
Europe
LOC
. So let's get a rundown of what to expect. Beginning with
France
GPE
and
Germany
GPE
at
8:30 AM
TIME
: at
London
GPE
time. Followed by the wider euros zone
PMI
ORG
number. That's Continues with In
Milan
GPE
at
3 PM
TIME
after the
US
GPE
markets open we'll get new house sales data from
the United States
GPE
painting a clearer picture perhaps of the state of the
US
GPE
economy in
the last month
DATE
and the effect of higher interest rates on mortgages of course else In the
US
GPE
primaries elections in
Florida
GPE
and in
New York
GPE
are taking place where
two
CARDINAL
long serving democratic lawmakers
Jerry Nabla
PERSON
and
Carolyn Maloney
PERSON
face off in
Manhattan
GPE
's region
Later tonight
TIME
we'll hear from
Minneapolis Fed
ORG
President
Neil Kashkari
PERSON
as he speaks at a Q&A session at
the Warton Minnesota Alumni Club
FAC
finally
German
NORP
chancellor
Olaf Will
PERSON
share a platform once again with the
Canadian
NORP
president just in
Trudeau
PERSON
at the
Canadian
NORP
Prime Minister sorry
Justin Trudeau
PERSON
on
day two
DATE
of his
3 day
DATE
visit the focuses energy of course with Looking to diverseify
Germany
GPE
's energy supply. Mark, this seems to be a lot going on. I seem to have read a lot of words at least. There's a lot of data and we're working our way towards
the Jackson Hall
FAC
. What's gonna be your focus? That there is a lot going on. It's actually a much more exciting day than people think. We're not just drifting to
Jackson Hall
FAC
. Markets are getting very interesting again. I think you know, summer is ended a little bit early. Those years and PMIs, absolutely in focus, given the nega
Around Europe
LOC
. Care about because he was such a dove and he's kinda switched so aggressively. So, maybe they are the
two
CARDINAL
highlights. Home sales as well, they're also catches my eye. Okay yeah absolutely an arising based environment let's get back to
Chris Turner
PERSON
bring him back into the conversation I and she's had a rare fake strategy and
Chris
PERSON
we mentioned strong The weakness in the euro where do you think the dollar heads through all of these challenges
this week
DATE
are we just set course for Yeah well it's all ready you know very strong and I think it probably stays pretty well supported near the highs I think one of the important running to
Jackson
PERSON
High I think one of the important takeaways from
last week's
DATE
fed
ORG
minutes
TIME
that released from the
July
DATE
F oneC meeting was they kinda welcome the strong dollar in terms of in helping to suppress imported inflation so no signs as yet Strong dollar was cool to get any problem to the
fed
ORG
. They cited wider, yield differentials as a fact to drive in kind of year a dollar lower. So, you know, I think that kinda combination as
Mark
PERSON
mentioned
Neil Caskari
PERSON
now Super Hawk. I think yeah, I think the dollar will stay pretty much near. It's kinda It's quite interesting the type of price actually we're seeing right
Friday
DATE
it wasn't a particularly busy day for like events but the dollar just stayed bid and you're done just stayed up first I think it is. Yeah. Yeah.
Chris
PERSON
, in a strong dollar environment, higher yields, lower stocks, it does not sound very friendly for emerging market currencies, which is the most vulnerable ones. Yeah and as usual the
Reminbi
PERSON
can set the tone for emerging market currencies in in general not only in
Asia
LOC
but also the commodity As well. That's a very much gonna trade off of kind of
Chinese
NORP
growth prospects. So, if we start with a remainder, I mean,
this week
DATE
, dollar
CNH
ORG
. So, the offshore remember, it's traded up through
684
CARDINAL
which was a big level of peak we saw
earlier in the year
DATE
I think people were That
China
GPE
is allowing kind of evaluation that we saw in
April
DATE
or
May
DATE
which took emerging market currency in general a week across the board so I think and a big surprise yesterday dollar career trading up to like
13 30
DATE
even though
the the central bank
ORG
would like I think Some of the big commodity exporters and maybe like places like
Chili
PERSON
as well which is really committed to spending a big chunk of its effects reserves to support the pacer until the end of That's gonna be quite a difficult challenge for them. Hmm so so they're quite vulnerable are they given the the rising dollar environment and the commitments they've made? Any other emerging markets in that basket then
Chris
PERSON
? Let's say like the
Rams
PERSON
as well. There's real so benchmark for emerging market kind of currents is in general and can the week of
Chinese
NORP
growth prospects. So we've seen that the Really kind of flying around and you know it's briefly it was trading under 16 only
a few weeks ago
DATE
And can
the week
DATE
of
Chinese
NORP
gross prospects so we've seen that the round really kind of flying around and you know it's briefly it was trading under 16 only
a few weeks ago
DATE
it's now over kinda 17 and you know Could easily trade so we're
18
CARDINAL
over
the next 2 or 3 weeks
DATE
if the dollar just stays strong as we think.
Chris
PERSON
we've all we always like picking on the run in a strong dollar high yield environment I guess I'm gonna switch back to G 10 for
one
CARDINAL
final one that's very binary at the moment
the yen dollar yen
MONEY
was the big trade of the
first
ORDINAL
part of
this year
DATE
now I know People are again fighting the idea of a short yen and they're kinda saying in an environment where stocks are in
a week
DATE
we're heading towards a recession yen won't fall much further what's your view is the dollar yen trade still good? Yeah I think it probably is I mean terms of trade I think as you mentioned earlier like gas prices really sort of dominating in with I'm spending
every day
DATE
looking what's happening to the terms of trade a place like the
EuroZone
ORG
and
Japan
GPE
that continuing to decline so With a strong dollar and this terms of trade story really dominating effects at the moment Very difficult to try and play against her even if you say you might try and pick out a long yen on the cross for kind of to play the we correct environment but overall I think Dolly and stays bit and yeah we could move
up to 140
CARDINAL
. Okay so
Dollyanne
PERSON
moved to the dollar move and a bit of yen weakness maybe.
Chris
PERSON
thanks very much. Thanks for joining us.
This Morning Kristana
WORK_OF_ART
. Coming up on the program a
Chinese
NORP
banks are employing unusual practices to inflate their loan volumes will delve into this fascinating story about what the
Chinese
NORP
data on the level of lending really needs we'll get some analysis this is bling back
Apple
ORG
has identified it's next big business bringing advertisements to more parts of your
iPhone
ORG
.
Today
DATE
Apple
ORG
pushes ads in
three
CARDINAL
places
the App Store Apple News
ORG
and the Stocks app In the news in stocks apps
Apple
ORG
shows display advertisements That means that
third
ORDINAL
party companies like car dealerships or mortgage lenders can showcase their advertisements just like they can on a website. On
the App Store
FAC
, the situation is different. There,
Apple
ORG
has search ads. This allows developers to buy their way and destroying a pire on search results. For instance, an app store developer can bid for the term car racing or basketball. So, their apps would surface above competing apps in the list of results. Apples The ads is a little ironic given that it's
ATT
ORG
or app tracking transparency privacy feature limits the ability for meta snap and even smaller developers to generate as much revenue as possible for advertising that's because the feature allows users to choose if they want their data collected and tracked across
third
ORDINAL
party apps and website Still apples hoping to expand its own ads business and is planning to add search ads to its maps app other areas where ads could eventually appear or an
Apple
ORG
books and
Apple
ORG
podcasts along maybe
1 day
DATE
with an ad supported tier of
Apple TV Plus
ORG
to compete with new offerings from
Netflix
GPE
and other streaming video This is power on.
Welcome back to Bloomberg Market Europe
half an hour
TIME
until the start of cash equity is trading for
this Tuesday morning
TIME
here are your top stories below parity reception fairs and
winter
DATE
warnings push Global stocks continue their move lower after equities saw their worst route in
2 months
DATE
European
NORP
and
US
GPE
future's dip. Plus opac on alert crude prices pear losses after
Saudi Arabia's
GPE
energy minister warns the alliance could cut production to curb recent price drops. Welcome back to the program everybody then half an hour as I said until the start of equity trading and this is the deteriorating future's picture actually but it's not just a
European
NORP
story we've got
US
GPE
features also looking a little bit weaker which is interesting just over
the last half hour
TIME
this is
Mark
PERSON
said they were at fluctuating through the
Asian
NORP
session so we're weaker I'm thinking about the
fed
ORG
and tied to policy About the
European
NORP
growth challenges around energy, perhaps. With that in mind,
Mark
PERSON
. I want to see what's caught your eye. I know you've been focused on on yields in
Europe
LOC
and the extent to which they reward investors. When you take into account how Inflation is. Yeah very much so so normally we look at kind of a real yield measures as derived by the market inflation adjusted returns but I just wanna do a more simple mature
today
DATE
which is
German
NORP
to your yields minus headlines CPI
German
LANGUAGE
CPI year and
year
DATE
rate and you can see that it is collapsed to completely unprecedented The data we have here and he goes back to about 1990 but I've gone back to
1982
DATE
here used a
30 year
DATE
window and you can see we've never Like this over
the past year
DATE
. And this is obviously what's been weighing on
the year
DATE
. You're essentially earning deeply negative real yields. So you're basically effectively losing money in real terms to buy
German
NORP
bonds. And that's very very dramatically so at the moment. And I think this goes back to the idea that
Jordan Rochester
PERSON
said from the mirror about the idea that
Europe
LOC
Potentially much more downside over
the year ahead
DATE
. My
one
CARDINAL
catches of course that we do have an inflation problem. We're gonna have various yield spikes at some points in
the year ahead
DATE
. Even if the ECB council state hiking path and that means that if the euros here with yields this negative, if we
Little
PERSON
baits and reel yields we might see some painful short squeezes and that goes back to my point that while I'm very bearish you're I think risk reward volatility adjusted it'll be a hard play whereas
European
NORP
stocks just probably have downside over
the next year
DATE
. Mom maybe we need a little bit of distance from the story to make this kind of assessment but the subtitle on your on your chart there says we'll be easy be regret it's negative rate experiment are we suggesting is there I mean maybe yes being negative for too long or being loose policy for too long but what did inevitable that negative
Talk
PERSON
us to this place I mean the pandemic and the post pandemic recovery and all the geo politics that we have is really what's driving inflation Well not not just what we saw from
Central Banks
ORG
over
decades
DATE
. No you're absolutely right and I think you know that's quite a newest discussion but I this is the environment of negative yields and
one
CARDINAL
of the problems is is that we've enter
Crisis Inflation
PRODUCT
crisis with companies in
Europe
LOC
borrowing an exceptionally low rate and therefore we they don't have any resilience to any hike and rates and in clearly that makes them much more fragile. They do not avail of this period of growth in
Europe
LOC
. They're not exciting growth but you know the the crisis was back here. Maybe the
European
NORP
crisis For
another couple of years
DATE
. But for all this period, you're a part of chance that it wasn't in crisis. It should've probably got out of negative rights. That would have made it system a little bit more robust. A little bit more resilient to the next downturn. And a little bit less painful now. But you're It is not the cause of the problem Okay. Mark, thanks for thoughts there.
Germany
GPE
and it's low yield and negative real yield environment. Let's get to a business flash now. Some of the other corporate That we're covering
today
DATE
and with an update here's Hi, Anna.
Elon Mosque
ORG
has subpoenaed his long-time friend, former
20
CARDINAL
CEO,
Jack Dorsey
PERSON
in his legal battle with the social media giant. Mask is seeking to collect Undated
Ela Mask
PERSON
has subpoenaed his long time friend former
20
CARDINAL
CEO
Jack Dorsey
PERSON
in his legal battle with the social media giant mask is seeking to collect
Understated
GPE
how much of its customer base is made up of spam and robot accounts
dozens
CARDINAL
of people have now been subpoenaed by both sides ahead of the expedited trial in
October
DATE
.
Ford
ORG
is cutting
3000
CARDINAL
jobs
this week
DATE
to fund its shift towards electric vehicles. The cuts will come primarily in the
US
GPE
with some positions also eliminated in
Canada
GPE
and
India
GPE
. See you
Jim Farley
PERSON
has repeatedly The company has too many workers
Ford
ORG
wants to spend
50 1 billion dollars
MONEY
to build
two 1 million
CARDINAL
electric vehicles
a year
DATE
by
2026
DATE
. And zoom shares fell in
US
GPE
late trade after it projected sales and profit for
the current quarter
DATE
below estimates it sees
annual
DATE
sales growing to
about $four
MONEY
.
4 billion
CARDINAL
down from its projection in
May
DATE
of
as much as four
CARDINAL
. 55 billion Zooms pandemic boom has cools considerably as officers reopen and competition intense fires from
Microsoft
ORG
teams that's your
Bloomberg
GPE
business splash Anna thanks very much
Anna Satkins
PERSON
here in
London
GPE
with a business Let's get what's going on in
China
GPE
. Is back stopping troubled real estate firms with
some 29 1 billion dollars
MONEY
worth of special loans that as
Beijing
GPE
's steps up support from main pillar of the
Chinese
NORP
economy and that is of course real estate let's bring in a
Bloomberg
GPE
Senior editor for
China
GPE
. What's driving the these these policy moves then Well clearly there's AA very deep deep slump in the real estate market we're seeing
29 1 billion dollars
MONEY
being dulled out through the
Chinese
NORP
palsy banks credit growth is you know
last month
DATE
could hit could have hit
a 5 year
DATE
low So, you know, that the banks are having problems finding lenders and and that the real estate developers are finding how real trouble completing projects as we've seen with mortgage boycotts across
China
GPE
now. And what are the risks of this approach Jonas Well, look at financially, we're we're seeing an erosion margins and and you know, the banks are dealing with a cascade in in bad death surfacing from from an ongoing property crisis And and as they're also now cutting rates more broadly you also have other companies in
China
GPE
who are clamoring for financing but but
Chinese
NORP
banks are pretty conservative and financing small media signs from so they're struggling many firms are struggling under the lockdown to stay afloat Even much higher rates and it's certainly not good for the
Chinese
NORP
economy but in the short and long term. Okay and
Jonas
PERSON
I think we've we've got some really interesting reporting that links to this around the extent to which
Chinese
NORP
banks are inflating their loan numbers. What more can you tell us on that? Yeah, I mean, that's an interesting development. The banks are caught in a real tight spot. As we discuss that the government is banging the dumps for them to land more and get the economy going while they're finding few companies willing to take on loans given the economic uncertainty bankers we have spoken to say there's a certain window dressing going on with lenders right now they're dolling out loans and then allowing these funds to be I'd be clients to deposit the loans back at the same rate other banks are buying from each other through short-term arrangements which is also pumping up volumes so in essence as we discussed
5 year
DATE
low in credit increase
last month
DATE
could be even worse than than This official data show at least Jonah interesting story thanks very much bring back
Jonas Bateman
PERSON
joining us there from
Hong Kong
GPE
coming up on this program oil gains off to
Sadi Arabia
GPE
said
Opec
ORG
maybe
fourth
ORDINAL
to come production more on that next He's been there.
China
GPE
's appetite for energy is enormous. The country consumes about a quarter of the world's energy supply
35%
PERCENT
more than the
US
GPE
annually
DATE
. Energy needs more than triple since
the year 2000
DATE
. That consumption has helped to feel astonishing growth. But it's come at a cost.
China
GPE
is the world's largest greenhouse gas center. There is no way to tackle climate change unless
China
GPE
reduces its emissions to
nine
CARDINAL
oh. The country's reliance on fossil fuels is also a hindrance to its own growth and the well being of its citizens. It has a long standing pollution problem and it is also prone to outages that severely harm her industry. All this has led the world's biggest polluter to take steps towards a radical transformation. On the David Rubenstein show Your conversations. I uncover the untold stories of the world's most successful leaders. Watch
Wednesdays
DATE
on
Bloomberg Television
ORG
. What is your basepace for
Italy
GPE
in terms of what happens If they move in a way that's anticipated another maybe
75
CARDINAL
basis points the next one we don't know there's there's some discretion about that then it'll indicate that they're on the way and I think once most important now we've learned from history on this learn from our experience is the more the
fed
ORG
can commun Better off will be so that communication that stipulated about what the policy will be Is very important right now and I hope that that does that. John when he comes to where we're at in the markets we're seeing extreme bullishness not so much
today
DATE
but we've seen the rally just continue to build Over
the years
DATE
for you what role I have financial conditions play and should the
fed
ORG
be paying more attention to this or at least I loot to that fact in order to sort of bring down This is what needs to be done. This is what's worked in the past. This is how we can do it. The the more convincing it will be. I think that Markets don't like is uncertainty about what's gonna happen to us more uncertainty today I think that's one of the reasons why the markets went down but the the more that the indicate Where it needs to be gone. That's why these rules are so called tailor rule, whatever you wanna call it or advantageous cuz it says, hey, we need to move a little bit further and hopefully, that will cure the problem a more rapidly than people expect. John when you wrote about this in
1982
DATE
flag the scenario right early deceleration risking the issue around credibility and then that the risk of of really disinflation causing a recession given perhaps from the policy errors before does that mean we're at a point where recession is going to be maybe I don't think it needs to be part of the cure what we we've experienced if we let inflation build up over time like it's in
the 70s 7 years
DATE
of hiring placement. If we nip it in the bud which I still think we can then you don't have to have these negative effects that people worried about they're right to worry about cuz they've seen in the past but the more that they're
This is what we need to do. This is good. Make the economy healthier. Grown even faster and I think that's what we should emphasize. This is better for job. Just as better for the economy. This is better. And also
Mention
PERSON
the world economy we have inflation all over the place right
Stamford University
ORG
, economics professor
John Taylor
PERSON
. He of the
Taylor
PERSON
all sighting, the
Taylor
PERSON
rule, who was at the very
first
ORDINAL
Jackson Hall Conference
FAC
,
four decades
DATE
On what to expect at this
year
DATE
's meeting and thinking about weather we need to see a recessional wheelchair recession in the
US
GPE
.
Mark
PERSON
, I just wanna get your thoughts on what we're seeing on our effects right now. The Euro threatening to drop
Territory
PERSON
you know we're already at
20 year
DATE
lows on the Euro at our colleague
Valerie
PERSON
pointing out that we Seen another huge moving energy and gas prices upwards in the sense that we've not taken out
yesterday
DATE
's peaks I suppose these
two
CARDINAL
these
two
CARDINAL
factors are are related though because it is fear about energy in
Europe
LOC
over the winter that has put down with pressure on the euro. Yeah, very much. It's been fear about that. I remember, energy prices have been ahead of
the Euro Stories
LAW
. We don't necessarily need energy prices to go much further to increase that
European
NORP
negativity. They just need energy prices to not come lower and it stays very negative for your one thing that's interesting. When we get really large moves Over like four, 5 days. You you rarely get the market then make a big move and then pause because what's happened is there's been a shifting positionings. The market dynamic is we either start breaking levels and really stretch all we get a rebound and I good example is the early July we fell from 1:04:
40
CARDINAL
to parody in Euro dollar in the space of
about six
CARDINAL
session And now we've come from
1:03
TIME
:
60
CARDINAL
back down to
99
CARDINAL
a similar type move in in a in
just over a week
DATE
I think now it we're not gonna be here in
a couple of days
DATE
time where are they gonna really accelerate to the downside as we get a panic or we'll get a bounce into
Jackson Hall
FAC
and so I think this is a really interesting Moment for your dollar over the short term. Okay we'll watch that shirt the short term performance then let's move on but stick with the theme of energy
Saudi Arabia's
GPE
energy minister says
Opec
PERSON
and it's allies maybe forced to cut output he says the future's market has become increasingly disconnected from funda Let's bring in our
Middle East
LOC
energy reporter. Who's with us?
Verity
PERSON
There she is. Let me ask you what this means then about the chances of
Opec
ORG
plus cutting production because just recently we were asking about how much Opec Plus is going to increase production. Now we seem to be in a slightly different world according to the
Saudis
NORP
. Yes, definitely. He said that there might be a chance of reducing production And of course everything but
Saudi Arabia
GPE
says everybody pays a lot of attention to But all prices are still pretty high. I mean they're clean to $
90
MONEY
a barrel. Er but they've eved off the highs of ehm
June
DATE
. And that's raised the question of whether
Opec
ORG
will reduce a little bit further but for a long time
Opex
GPE
quotas have been quite theoretical because a lot of those members haven't been able to keep up with those quoters And we know we've seen a lot of volatility as a result any sort of indications from
Russia
GPE
or signs of global recession futures markets are definitely reacting to those Very good
morning
TIME
. If physical markets are supposedly much better reflecting fundamentals, should we be paying much more attention to the the price of physicals or do we still use features as a guide? Perhaps but there have been plenty of disruptions on the physical side as well. I mean, recently, we had disruptions to pipeline from
Kasak
ORG
stand. We had flows halted from the southern portion of the pipeline running from
Russia
GPE
to We have plenty of wildcard factors which will affect the physicals market and also futures.
Iran
GPE
is the big one that everybody's watching right now.
Libya
GPE
's managed to raise their production again after a string of disruptions So there's plenty of things to watch on the outside as well so I think it's worth keeping an eye on on both sides. What do we make of the developments in
Canada
GPE
varity we've seen
So there's plenty of things to watch on the outside as well so I think it's worth keeping an eye on on both sides. What do we make of the developments in
Canada
GPE
varity we've seen Prime Minister
Trudeau
PERSON
saying he'll clear the way for further exports to
Europe
LOC
is that is that going to be material is this the kind of situation that global leaders can have an impact This is something that will affect supply way off in the future Whenever you talk about new
LNG
ORG
projects there's a massive lead time to that it takes a long time to construct these projects and while
European
NORP
leaders particularly
Germany
GPE
a travelling around the world meeting lots of different producers and saying how much could you increase product That's great but a lot of these producers are fixed and a long term contracts and if they want to expand the production capacity that takes a lot of time as well and definitely
Canada
GPE
's another one of those examples to do basically said that he would help take away those hurdles, the regulatory hurdles that been holding back.
LNG
ORG
exports which is is great but it would only affect supply over the much much longer term. Better see thanks so much thanks for bringing your thoughts
this morning
TIME
Blue Bay
LOC
is very ratcliffe with the latest on energy markets from a number of angles let's get a blue bird first red
Update
ORG
some of the latest headlines we're covering here at
Bloomberg
PERSON
here's
Alice Atkins
PERSON
hi Anna the
US
GPE
has warned that
Russia
GPE
is preparing to launch intensified strikes against
Ukraine
GPE
's government facilities in
the coming days
DATE
this after President
Vladimir Putin
PERSON
called the car bomb that killed the daughter of an ally a quote dastardly crime
Ukraine
GPE
is preparing to celebrate independence day
Wednesday
DATE
which also marks
6 months
DATE
since rushes invasion.
British Airways
ORG
has it scrapping about 5000 return flights in
the coming months
DATE
that's after cancelling
about 13%
PERCENT
of its
summer
DATE
schedule due to And extended capacity curves at its
London Heathrow Hub BA
FAC
says passengers who've been affected can rebuke alternative flights or seat refunds. And Doctor
Anthony Dauchy
PERSON
who became a household name during the pandemic is to step down at
the end of the year
DATE
the top
US
GPE
infectious Z's expert has run
the national institute of allergy
ORG
and infectious diseases since
1984
DATE
advising
seven
CARDINAL
presidents on every major infectious disease at rates since the HIV crisis. The
81 year old
DATE
says he is leaving to pursue the next chapter of his career. Global news
20
CARDINAL
bras a day on air no
Bloomberg
PERSON
quick take part by
more than 2700
CARDINAL
journalist
Analyst
PERSON
and
more than 120
CARDINAL
countries. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Anna,
Alice
ORG
, thanks very much. I'm
Zack Kids
PERSON
in
London
GPE
. They're coming up on the program. We're looking at talks to watch including is
Alice
ORG
was just reporting there,
IAG
ORG
, the parents of a
British Airways
ORG
response to scrap about 5000 round trip flights
this winter
DATE
. That news broke
just after hours
TIME
yesterday
DATE
. So, we're getting an That this is bling bag. Is it possible the industries in an arms race that will Lead to spending itself into an over supply. I mean, that has happened before We we we've looked at this very carefully and yo, the digitalization of everything. Tell me what aspect of your life Emily isn't becoming more digital. We're trying to prevent that but yeah. Hey COVID has accelerated that. The industry cost
500 1 billion dollars
MONEY
last year
DATE
. The semi conductor industry overall Estimator are
one 1 trillion dollars
MONEY
. A doubling by
the end of the decade
DATE
. At that point, I believe those estimates.
Overall Estimator are
one 1 trillion dollars
MONEY
, a doubling by
the end of the decade
DATE
. At that point, I believe those estimates. It's not that there's not gonna be some blitz and turns on the way, and the majority of that is driven by Process technology of which
only three
CARDINAL
companies can satisfy that needle. Welcome back to
Bloomberg Markets
ORG
. You're
8 minutes
TIME
until the start of cash equity's trading. The future's picture has been deteriorating
this hour
TIME
and this is where we are on
European
NORP
features right now. Looking for Let's get to some of the individual components though and focus on the stocks that we have in focus
today
DATE
. We're right joins us with an update.
Laura
PERSON
, I guess we focus on oil, give me, we've seen actually a bit of a rebound in oil prices. We have I'm watching from the oil majors at the open and this is in response to a
bloomberg
PERSON
scoop that
Saudi Arabia's
GPE
energy minister.
Prince Abduliz
PERSON
, That Opec Plus may be forced to cut production when the group meets in
September
DATE
in a written response to question he said that the paper and physical markets have become increasingly Going on to you strong language that the market is an estate of
schizophrenia Arabia
GPE
is the largest producer with an Plus therefore arguably the most important rant crude features have fallen
nearly 22%
PERCENT
since
June
DATE
this is on fears of a global But these comments are likely to be a bullish driver for companies such as
Shel Pete
PERSON
and Total at the open.
Laura
PERSON
good
morning
TIME
wish small you're also looking at what's the story there? Yeah so the
Swiss
NORP
luxury name has won the support of institutional shareholder services in rebuffing the proposal of the
British
NORP
activist
Blue
ORG
bell capital partners. No bluebell recommended that the formable gary sea of
Francesco Tripani
ORG
join the board to Cloth they shareholders institutional shareholders services however said that the dissident has failed to make a compelling case that change is needed on the board it's worth noting that It's very close with the family of LVMH and therefore you could infer at a potential conflict of interest with
Fid
GPE
instead wish one have appointed an internal board member
Wendy Luharb
PERSON
. And
IAG Laura
PERSON
what's the latest there Yeah so the parent company of
British Airways
ORG
could be facing some negative reaction at the open in response to news that
British Airways
ORG
will be scrapping eight% of their
winter
DATE
flight schedule that translate to
5000
CARDINAL
round trips the vast majority of these are short all flights I spoke with
one
CARDINAL
analyst
this morning
TIME
from
Bernstein
PERSON
who told me it's not the But it's better to act proactively rather than risk running too hot cancel too late which of course would be more costly and actually Getting ahead of industry peers being proactive But the key question for the industry right now is where will demand for after
summer
DATE
in
the Northern Hemisphere
LOC
? Yes and the key question for some people in my team is whether there flights will be cancelled over
the winter
DATE
. I know this.
Laura
PERSON
, thank you very much. You are right. We do not date on the stocks in focus.
Michael
PERSON
, just mention BT in passing, the BT group has said that the Government has decided to take no action on
Altis
NORP
UK's steak in the company after announcing back in
May
DATE
that it would review it under
the National Security Act
LAW
does this pave the way for a bigger for for a bigger state to be taken by the
French
NORP
businessman so we'll certainly keep that stocking focus but away from the stock specifics the mood seems to be deteriorating once Just over
the last hour
TIME
. Yeah look really much it's amazing the shift we've had in
just a
DATE
week
DATE
's time from ridiculous talk that maybe it wasn't a bear market rally and we're going to back the old time highs to now panic again I get worried when we go so extreme from one side to the other. Yeah, absolutely. So, we'll we'll keep.
From one side to the other. Yeah, absolutely. So, we'll we'll let we'll keep all of the individual stocks in focus and indeed that negativity and future. So,
European
NORP
future is
a week
DATE
.
US
GPE
futures, not that future This is bling back. When I started I had no idea it was gonna turn into this. Empire. Bring that money back and just building building it building it. Yeah, I think about a person that was homeless at
one
CARDINAL
point. Didn't really have any money coming in. The fact that this person was relentless and just determined to succeed and not let rock bottom define him as an individual. I can take things and put them together and take them apart and make them better and put them back together I respect the crowd so I don't wanna minimize and disrespect the value of each step of the craft and do by machine what should be done by hand
Access
PRODUCT
the financial world on demand Hear from leading economists Policy makers. And industry experts via live and on demand webinars. Only from
Bloomberg
ORG
. Start exploring to see what's moving the markets. Visit
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Com webinars Welcome to the European Market open everyone
a minute
TIME
to go into the sort of cash I could eat trading in front in
London
GPE
with
Tom Mackenzie Continue
PERSON
to slide after their worst routes in
2 months
DATE
plus
Opec
ORG
on alert crew gains after
Saudi Arabia
GPE
The alliance could cut production to support prices.
Tom
PERSON
let's take a look at futures we're seeing a bit of pressure across the board as the traders thinking that the federal reserve The focus of course is on this tightening montery policy and what does that not only for growth but Global market. Yeah, the primacy of course about speech, more hawkish commentary is expected as you say, out of
Jackson Hol
PERSON
. We look ahead to that speech on
Friday
DATE
from
Jay Powell
PERSON
. You saw losses are
between 22.
DATE
Six
CARDINAL
, percent on the Nasdaq
yesterday
DATE
and of There is options expiry and some hedge fund position as well to factor
Yesterday
DATE
and of course there is options expiry and some hedge fund position as well to factor in to these markets just add And you saw of course a move significant move in bonds as well as the equity markets currently you've seen the footsy
100
CARDINAL
down
two tenths of a
CARDINAL
percent we continue to watch our effects as well given the pressure particularly on the single currency and sterling that came through
yesterday
DATE
on the back again of
Down
PERSON
four tenths
CARDINAL
of a percent. Over in
Spain
GPE
, losses of
28
CARDINAL
points and of course that energy pitcher as well and you saw that in
Germany
GPE
โฌ
700
MONEY
per megawatt hour or thereabouts that's the
Time
ORG
it's gotten to those levels ever in
Germany
GPE
compared to about
4045
CARDINAL
euros per mega dollar
last year
DATE
the future's in the
US
GPE
pointing to further losses then at building the downside of
yesterday
DATE
down
four tenths
CARDINAL
of a percent
Euro
PRODUCT
dollar again below The
US
GPE
2 year 10 year
DATE
currently at
299
CARDINAL
across come to be above three% yes they currently just off by
one
CARDINAL
basis.
Two And Brent
ORG
in focus again on the back of those comments from the
Saudi
NORP
's $
97
MONEY
about account
seven tenths
CARDINAL
of a percent we continue to watch what's happening in
Iran
GPE
as well the
US
GPE
and the
American
NORP
saying there is some movement there in terms of those conversations with officials
Tom
PERSON
this is what I'm looking at in terms of the markets on the move Let's go straight to the This
Bloomberg
PERSON
function. You can actually type On your Bloomberg Terminal Energy the only one seeing a bit of gains this is also on the back of what we heard from the
Saudi
NORP
oil minister saying they could cut production Because of the imbalance currently so energies up everything else is down construction technology and auto parts down
some seven
CARDINAL
times of eight% and that's actually the lowest so those are the industries that are losing the most let's get over natural Good morning to you and you're looking at
Germany
GPE
olds. Yes, good
morning
TIME
, friend. Of course,
FX
ORG
absolutely in focus with your dollar. Absolutely smashing through party
this week
DATE
and continue to slump
today
DATE
. It's really had a bad run and
one
CARDINAL
of the reasons of course is that
Weather
PERSON
's a massive energy crisis in
Europe
LOC
. It is a supply side inflation problem and that means it's very hard for the ACB to act. And that means the deeply negative real yields across the
European
NORP
continent looks set to stay very very negative. Now this is
German
NORP
reel yield. As measured by
the 2 year
DATE
rate in
Germany
GPE
. The headline
German
NORP
CPI prints. It's a slightly different way to do it but kinda very much the real impact that many people feel. And as you can see it's go back over
the last 30 years
DATE
. As you can see we've really fallen unprecedented territory over
the past year
DATE
. Where
Europe
LOC
's had a real inflation problem. We've not had a reaction proper reaction yet from the ECB. And CPI is just Way to the top side. And this means that a real terms. If you're buying
German
NORP
bonds, you're just losing money in real terms. Hand over fist. That's real problem cuz
Europe
LOC
has a very very large debt pile. And there's this backdrop which means it'll continue to stay extremely difficult for
the year
DATE
for the rest of
this year
DATE
. Okay
Bloomberg
PERSON
and Live managing it to
Mark Cobmore
PERSON
also getting
PMI
ORG
out at
around 8:30
TIME
: for
Germany
GPE
which will give us a clear sense of just how badly that economy is faring on the back of course of that energy crisis let's get back to some of the key market drivers then and joining us now is beyond a mante city group global equity strategist and
Lynn
PERSON
In terms of let's start with what happened in the markets yesterday Lyn let's bring you in at this point at the sell off is this is this conclusive evidence now that this was indeed a bear market rally oh yeah I mean I think we've still got a ways to go before we can consider it the full bear market rally but clearly the mood has changed Know it's just red across the board. I mean, I think the the graph you showed earlier with energy really being the only sector up
today
DATE
. I mean, not just speaks to the big themes in the market right now. So, good morning to you. Is it just foolish to find the
fed
ORG
right now? Hey good morning I think one thing that we have learned over
the years
DATE
is not not to fight the central banks, right? And the reaction function of the market if we do expect slightly more ho-cash authoric from
Jackson Hall
FAC
. It's plausible right? So bonjours are going higher and Markets after the
More honky
Jackson Hall
FAC
explosible right so bond deals are going higher and the equity markets after the big rally that we've just had on the back of repricing the central banks to being Whichever way It doesn't surprise me. Let's put it this way. And yet we ask the JP Morgan coming out and saying that the last big hike that you're gonna see from the fair is gonna come through in
September
DATE
and then they're gonna start to ease off and that's gonna improve supportive for equi What is wrong with that call from JP
Morgan
PERSON
? Well that would be that would be a great outcome if you did the the
Fed
ORG
style that stops hiking in the in
September
DATE
we have a bit more hawkish reaction function of the head going all the way to
four four and a half percent
CARDINAL
into
the next year
DATE
but absolutely more doveish cent Would be very very welcome by the by the equity markets. But I think still there is Continue to be sticky and perhaps the central banks have to hike as much as they can while they can before the recession are environment hits us
Wait
ORG
,
100%
PERCENT
. I mean, I guess this is why markets are are maybe, you know, pausing to ahead of that Whole speech by
J Powell
PERSON
or is how aggressive can they be in this kind of environment? Yeah, I mean, I think clearly the the mantra from the fat has been they're gonna do what it takes to get inflation under control and markets are now repricing you know that hawkish sentiment. I think you know the move you saw before was people starting to think things might be better than React to a new inflation dynamic of indeed we get to a point where we're never gonna be back to
two%
ORG
where it's more like four% five% in terms of entrenched deflation across these economy what is the The equity market reaction to that longer term. I think we'll have to adjust to the new reality that it's going to be higher inflation for longer right and as long as the central banks are not going to stick to their lower than that inflation target You know, some inflation. I We've been longing for inflation for
the last decade
DATE
, right? Not as high inflation as we have but if if it's stabilizes
around three
CARDINAL
, four%. I think it it Be okay for the for the equity markets to to take it in What are you buying right now? Is there anything that you trade with conviction? So I am worried. Well, I'm not I wouldn't be buying into the rally I worry that the rally has gone a bit too too far I'm bullish on equities over longer term my targets are positive over
the next Months
DATE
but the markets don't go up in straight line, right? So, I worry that there is bad news ahead Before the the good news. So Over the continental
Europe
LOC
within Europe Towards value and I think if there is this risk of more hokeish From the feds from the central banks then I would be particularly worried about gross but gross cyclicals the most so what I've done
last week
DATE
was to downgrade a pads of rose sickles that Done very well in the rally so industrials retailing I'm already underway to chemicals so I do worry that if recessionary worries start hitting the market market Realizing them Parts of the market have the the most toodles I'll be answer what is the call on
UK
GPE
then you mentioned that it's one of your preferred markets add a timer cause city coming out
yesterday
DATE
saying that inflation could top
18%
PERCENT
rates could get to seven% on the back of all the energy concerns the inflation crisis here in the
UK
GPE
just unpack that Indeed a very very point but some remember that the
UK
GPE
marketing I'm talking Futsy 100 here really is the most international market out there so it's packed with big multi national
The
UK
GPE
market and I'm talking footsy
100
CARDINAL
here ready The most international markets out there. So, it's packed with big multinationals where
70%
PERCENT
of revenues comes from abroad. So, it's not really a bad on what is happening in the domestic economy, right? And it has been benefit Through
the first half of the year
DATE
because it has big waiting in commodities and from what you've said before while they might continue to do well right but also what the
UK
GPE
has is big weighting in defensive healthcare consumer staples these are all very big sectors This region and defensives are very expensive everywhere in the world. Many clients come to us saying, well, you know, it's it's just impossible to find any defensive stats are still reasonably priced. The
UK
GPE
is the
one
CARDINAL
place when you can find still cheap
Defensiveness
PERSON
so that could help the
UK
GPE
call as well. Oh great we'll talk a lot more about the
UK
GPE
shortly it's all playing out
Lynn
PERSON
actually in currencies right euro dollar breaking through
99
CARDINAL
. We saw that that also level that we saw
yesterday
DATE
breaking Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I think we spend so much time looking at equities but really currencies are such an interesting story
these days
DATE
. I mean, they were boring and low volatility for so long but it's just become such a microcosm of what's happening in in the global economy and you see the euro breaking through parody. Lots of expectations that it's gonna go lower. The pound yet Weakening and you know the dollar is dominance continues to to be the the big force in markets. Thank you so much.
Arlen Thomason
PERSON
there and training us
this morning
TIME
about I think city group
Stays
PERSON
with us. Now, coming up also
German
NORP
transfer Olive Shults in
Canada
GPE
today
DATE
. Actually
yesterday
DATE
as his government works to reduce
Germany
GPE
's dependence on
Russian
NORP
gas imports. We'll have plenty more on that story next and this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. If you do any kind of business in this country, there's a pretty good chance that you're gonna see that business registered in
Delaware
GPE
. Why? Because that's where you do it In our point was
Wyoming
GPE
can be that venue for blockchain enterprise for crypto Freedom we want that individuality and that's a common theme that brings together bipartisan support for this
NYM
ORG
This trend is coming. It's not going to stop. Is more of a small town that's growing into without call that cryptocurrency version of
Silicone Valley
FAC
. Control your own destiny. You get that from a blockchain and you don't get that without it. The difference between endless research and a winning strategy
Bloomberg Law
PERSON
combines the latest in
AI
GPE
powered tools and in-depth analysis The research process. To grow your practice and make better use of your valuable time. The difference is Law Go to the market that over
the past few weeks
DATE
has made it clear it wants to go higher it got a little spook by
This is a market that over
the past few weeks
DATE
has made it clear. It wants to go higher. It got a little spooked by the idea that due political potentials are rising. Welcome back to the open everyone
13 minutes
TIME
into the
European
NORP
trading day guess what it's a talk of course about
Earlier last week
DATE
was saying it really is the only catalyst out there in
August
DATE
and for the moment we're Pressure on these
European
NORP
stocks
two
CARDINAL
tens of eight% lower. Kind of kind of girl but maybe I'm wrong. Not at all. Cuz I'm gonna cocktail. There's there is a link here to Adidas and what's happening there? I don't know if you're a fan. So they're CEO of the
German
NORP
sportswear maker. We're focused on
one
CARDINAL
of our stocks to watch
Adidas
PERSON
. There's a surprised part of their
CO Casper
ORG
roasted and
Frank
PERSON
you tell me on good A good council that it can be Adidas or
Adidas
PERSON
. So, this what came straight from the executives now leaving. So, I wonder whether because he was mispronouncing. He said, right, Is enough. I need to find a new company. Questioning yourself. Behind this mystery around the CEO department. So that's that's Addy that's
IAG
ORG
by the way. They are tenants bad news for your
winter holidays
DATE
. Cancelling 5000. It seems
5000
CARDINAL
flights over
the winter
DATE
. This is
BA
ORG
of course part of the
IAG
ORG
group BT. Another one to watch
Saying
WORK_OF_ART
regulators here are gonna basically look past this increase in the state by
Altis
NORP
which is increased at stake in BT
two
CARDINAL
about 18%
PERCENT
. So just a Stocks to watch in the session
today
DATE
francing. Now,
German
NORP
power has served
about 700 years
DATE
of megawatt hour for the
first
ORDINAL
time as markets panic over the country's dependence on unreliable
Russian
NORP
energy supplies. Well, the transfer of Schultz went to
Canada
GPE
as part of Government is working hard to end its dependence on
Russian
NORP
gas. We are working hard to become independent of this gas supply and we are doing a lot of investments to make it happen and we are doing it as fast as ever possible never such an infrastructure has been built in
Germany
GPE
and that is short time. Easing The process is The difficulty that
Germany
GPE
is facing to make sure that we can move through regulatory hurdles More quickly is something we're willing to do but there needs to be a business case. It needs to make sense for
Germany
GPE
. No, for more, we're joined from
Berlin
GPE
by
Bloomberg
ORG
's
Burkeet Jen
ORG
in our
Bureau
ORG
Chief in
Berlin
GPE
. We're good. Thank you so much for joining us How much does this actually help with the timeline of how fast some of the energy can arrive in
Germany
GPE
? Well that the government is is clearly at the moment looking at where is the energy need? And at the moment I mean we do hear that they are seem to be on course unless you know
Russia
GPE
is cutting gas further. They do say that probably if it if Winter isn't getting too cold they they might get through
this coming winter
DATE
with the existing energy storage But there are more worth it or what is going to happen in
the next year
DATE
and during the winter and therefore they say they need to make sure now that in the medium term in in the in in
the next couple of months
DATE
they are gonna get
LNG
ORG
for example from Or also extra gas from
Norway
GPE
and they're also still in negotiations with
Qatar
GPE
.
Bucket
PERSON
just before I get to my next question. Just gotta highlight some redheads crossing the term. Of course, this links into what's happening across the energy pitcher. In
Europe
LOC
, In this case we're talking or we're waiting for the germ appear my out at
30 minutes
TIME
passing out but now you got
French
LANGUAGE
August
DATE
services
PMI
ORG
come in at
51
CARDINAL
so below the forecast of
53
DATE
that is gonna be concerning for officials in
France
GPE
that services beer mile for
the month of August
DATE
coming in at
51
CARDINAL
so still inexpensive territory but the forecast have been for Manufacturing PMI in contraction
49
CARDINAL
at the forecast have been for
49
DATE
. Again, that is for
the month of August
DATE
.
Burget
ORG
, as we tie in the broader economics to what's happening in the gas pitcher. Across and the energy picture across
Europe
LOC
. Where was the urgency from policy makers when we're looking at โฌ
700
MONEY
per megawatt
A broader economics to what's happening in the gas picture across and the energy picture across Where was the urgency from policy makers when we're looking at โฌ
700
MONEY
per megawatt hour in terms of
german
NORP
power prices long term conversations with the
Canadians
NORP
is not gonna be enough is it? No I mean they they are looking at at the impact obviously for the economy you pointed out that
Europe
LOC
obviously is already facing The economic backlash in
Germany
GPE
is at the at the border of recession. So what they are looking at is actually also to keep the the the balance right between the impact for the company so that the companies can still pay their the rising for the rising energy, prices, and at the same time also to keep basically on the one hand, the
Unrest
ORG
under control and and also the so the the burden for consumers therefore the government is looking at Rebutting that the bird and they have passed this surcharge which is passing on โฌ
500
MONEY
per family to the consumer and we will see some further measures also including further fiscal stimulus from the government. Berga thanks so much
Burgan Jen
PERSON
and there are chief in
Berlin
GPE
now let's get back to
Batman
PERSON
the head of
European
NORP
equity strategy at a city about that we're talking a little Before about your biggest conviction we talked about inflation in the
US
GPE
and then we started talking about the
UK
GPE
I know city really shock waves you know across trading room floors with that
17%
PERCENT
call on possible inflation in the
UK
GPE
does that mean that you're you know reworking a lot of your Forecast around
Europe
LOC
as well. Oh in terms of the
UK
GPE
forecast it is really So the conviction is that higher Higher food prices, higher energy prices are going to hit non-corbonic core inflation is Is much lower right? It's around Six% it's more in line with with where consensus is and You know, the winter is coming and of course, energy crisis as we've discussed before, continue to stay high, right? So, you've got to imagine that there'll be inflationary pressures coming through into the winter. Be out of Anna's expecting what
10%
PERCENT
earnings grow
this year
DATE
five%
next year
DATE
what what is the earnings the
EPS
ORG
contraction when we factor in this gas shock So, this is one of my biggest stories, right? That's earnings expectations. It's definitely have to come down. You said Anna is our Plus
five
CARDINAL
for
the next year
DATE
. However, it should be fair if we exclude Out of
this 10%
PERCENT
is a more reasonable
two%
ORG
for for
this year
DATE
but
10%
PERCENT
for
next year
DATE
right and if indeed as city economists forecast we are going to get hit by recession in the
Euros
LOC
zone
next year
DATE
that's that's Far too far to bullish so I think It could come to the negative number for
this year
DATE
the pain will be concentrated around
the winter months
DATE
and quarters of course year on
year
DATE
we could see construction of
around 10%
PERCENT
a big
EPS
ORG
recession It's
around 30%
PERCENT
contraction. So, you know, this minus 10 can improve even over the optimistic. Okay
minus 10
CARDINAL
in terms of
VPS
ORG
can even that can sound over the optimistic and they call that of course to upgrade tell goes to
over eight
CARDINAL
particularly concerned about Cyclicals. Of
European
NORP
equity strands at city thanks for those insights as ever coming up
Saudi Arabia
GPE
awards that volatility in the oil market
May 4
DATE
Opec class to cut This is a redhead cross the terminal saying that the
US
GPE
retail gasoline falling to its longest run of decline since
2015
DATE
just some good On flash. Can we get the details around
Saddy Arabia
GPE
? And oil next. Stay with us. This is
China
GPE
's appetite for energy is enormous. The country consumes about a quarter of the world's energy supply
35%
PERCENT
more than the
US
GPE
annually
DATE
. It's energy needs of more than triple since
the year 2000
DATE
. That consumption has helped to feel astonishing growth. But it's come at a cost. Is the world's largest greenhouse gas cemetery? There is no way to tackle climate change unless
China
GPE
reduces its emissions to need oh. The countries reliance on fossil fuels is also a hindrance to its own growth and the well being of its citizens. Severely hump All this has led the world's biggest polluter to take steps towards a radical transformation. On the David Rubenstein show here to peer conversations by uncover the untold stories of the world's most successful leaders. Watch
Wednesdays
DATE
on
Bloomberg Television
ORG
. Welcome back to the open we are
24 minutes
TIME
in studio
European
NORP
trading day just recapping a couple of redheads across the terminal important when it comes to anyone looking At the energy complex so
US Natural Gas
ORG
prices hitting $
10
MONEY
for the
first
ORDINAL
time since
2008
DATE
that is gonna be linked so of course a searching at demand setting In in
Europe
LOC
when it comes to gas prices we saw those jump
more than 10%
PERCENT
just
yesterday
DATE
alone and of course
German
NORP
energy prices getting to Above โฌ
700
MONEY
per megaward hour. The other component when it comes to energy and this is at the pump in the
US
GPE
or in
Portland
GPE
when it comes to inflation
Portland
GPE
when it comes to the politics of the
US
GPE
leading up to those midterms in
November
DATE
.
Us
GPE
retail gasoline falling in its longest runner twice since 2015
Francine
PERSON
. That is important when it comes to that the The fact that gas prices now these petrol prices, gas prices at the pump coming down. Yeah and again, we're starting now to see a lot of pricing forward because they worry about the winter and I saw one which I would say is absolutely terrifying. He's from energy aspect saying that gas prices cause rice โฌ
400
MONEY
. It flows via
North Stream
GPE
to stop in
Number
GPE
. And support what's happening when it comes to Northstream that's cosing down at least for
3 days
DATE
according At
the end of this month
DATE
the concern being that it won't come back online right let's get what's happening
Saudi Arabia
GPE
then energy minister saying that
Opec
ORG
and it's allies may be forced to cut output as the future's market has become Disconnected from fundamentals for more. We are joined by
Bloomberg
PERSON
all reports of verity, right? Priority. What are the details? What we know? So he was pointing to extreme volatility in the market was essentially saying that futures prices are swinging wildly whenever there's a change in sentiment. Ehm pointing particularly at any moves from
Russia
GPE
or signs or the global recession. Ehm which is of course the case he also said that
Opec
ORG
may need to make a cut and that's already had response from particularly
Asian
NORP
refiners who of course use that crude as a feed stock. What does.
May need to make a cut and that's already had response from particularly
Asian
NORP
refiners who of course use that crude as a feed stock. Verity what does this mean going forwards actually does it mean that we could see production cuts quite quickly We'll certainly be talking about the next meeting of
Opec
ORG
and anything that
Sadi Arabia
GPE
says is looked at very closely as the most powerful member of the
Opec
ORG
group They never really give too much away before the meeting. But just the idea, raising the possibility that they might cut is certainly interesting after many, many months of having a rollover event, basically,
Opec
ORG
, whereas predetermined, and everybody sort of had
Dear
WORK_OF_ART
what was gonna happen next? Very thank you so much Spit of a Whip Lash effect.
PMI
ORG
readings just in
a few minutes
TIME
this is
Bloodberg
PERSON
. So the inflation environment has been changing a little bit. Inflation has been very low for
25 years
DATE
. Now people think inflation's coming back. How are you gonna deal with that? I think many of the tools that we've historically used to ballot inflation no longer work in the same ways they used to I think people often times thought of of housing as a way or or especially retail and real estate is a way to to hedge against inflation Less and less possible the way we've invested in it. I think commodity similarly have been thought of as a way to hedge against inflation. There are challenges over the long term equities have been a hedgehog inflation. We will continue to do what we have done in the past the possibility of heading against inflation. Because
Types
ORG
of inflation have to be hedged in different ways. So, if it's a very quick increase of inflation as opposed to a slow rise of inflation. Is it temporary? Is it a long and a persistent type of inflation? So, for us, I never model myself in economists that can predict where inflation is going. And so what Portfolio where they are different options that can fight the different types of inflation and to pay close attention to it and and Fundamentally it's done through the equity The really reminder isn't it just how sensitive the markets are to any commentary about trade we did see some pressure on the
UN
ORG
we did see some pressure on the future that is now being reverse Welcome back to the open everyone
30 minutes
TIME
into the
European
NORP
trading day and here are your top stories below Global I could actually look for direction after the worst route in
2 months
DATE
Cut production to support prices. Now, things
After the lions could cut production to support prices. Now, things dumb are looking a little bit different in the market Yeah a little bit of a turn around in Sentiment. Hedge fund positioning but high yields as well particularly impacting cause tech. And it's too really important stories predicting when it comes to Again. In focus for us
today
DATE
. We're looking at
US
GPE
natural gas prices. I was getting to $
10
MONEY
for the
first
ORDINAL
time since
2008
DATE
. But at the gasoline in terms of the pump and this is important of course for households in the
US
GPE
and for the politics Look we could cut back on output. In terms of how the market's shaping up then the broader benchmark currently down
a 10th
CARDINAL
of a percent turning round from the bigger shop that we were seeing in terms of Is just in positivity just up
three
CARDINAL
points
5100
CARDINAL
down
four tenths
CARDINAL
of a percent as well we'll switch it over see how things are playing out across these sectors energy is in the green as autos as well basic resources Only at one% on the back of that stronger oil pitcher again tying in to
Bloomberg
PERSON
's conversation with the energy minister of sound the Arabia and that threats there to cut production based resources also get
United
ORG
tens of percent
PERCENT
a number of sectors still in the red though including food and beverages media and health care as well that are the shape of the sectors
at least 30 minutes
TIME
Trading station this
Tuesday
DATE
. Energy up
one%
ORG
. Now, turning to the economic picture for
Europe
LOC
concerns continue to mount. That's as a fallout from the war in
Ukraine
GPE
. Drives up energy and food cost. Now, as
This morning
TIME
which are giving us a bit of an insight into the challenges facing the economy. Now, from where we're joined by
Lizzy
PERSON
Birden
PERSON
. Hi,
Lizzy
PERSON
. So, what have we learned And what else are we expecting? Hard. The
French
NORP
data. It showed contraction on the composite
PMI
ORG
. And manufacturing but slight growth when it comes to services. We're still waiting for the flash composites for the euros zone and the
UK
GPE
. Booths will give us an indication of How much the soaring energy costs and the risk of
Russia
GPE
cutting off gas supplies will threaten a recession across
Europe
LOC
We're expecting to see contractions in both
Europe
LOC
and the
UK
GPE
in
August
DATE
and then
Bloomberg
GPE
economics looking ahead to
the fourth quarter
DATE
is expecting recessions in both don't forget in the
UK
GPE
consumer confidence is at a record low we saw it in that
GFK
ORG
survey it's at a level that's Consistent with a recession already and we're not even at the peak of inflation yet. But what I would point out is there are economists also say that a
UK
GPE
recession is expected to be milder than previous
Historic
PERSON
ones. We've got this healthy household balance sheet and also the expected substantial fiscal response. Our economists say that even Let's trust says that a recession isn't inevitable. Er it actually despite the tax cuts that she's promising is likely though not to the extent Without without her help. Yeah it's something consensus now isn't it the
UK
GPE
is gonna be adding or falling into recessionary territory if it isn't already there the euros own as well many economists saying that that is almost inevitable recession for
the years
DATE
I'm just getting that
German
NORP
manufacturing data it's actually a beat on the forecast for
the month of August
DATE
so manufacturing
PMI
ORG
coming in at
49
DATE
.
Eight
CARDINAL
so still just about in contract But the forecast have been for
48
DATE
and I believe it's a beat on the
July
DATE
number as well interesting of course as we know the industrial sector in
Germany
GPE
under pressure as a result of those very very high energy cost that we're talking about
yesterday
DATE
services
PMI
ORG
by the way falling to
48
CARDINAL
.
Two
CARDINAL
that was a big miss from the forecast of
49
CARDINAL
manufacturing it seems seems to be holding up better than some had expected Are over in
Germany
GPE
.
Lizzy
PERSON
you were in Felix though
yesterday
DATE
at the glamor
Location of Felix Oport
ORG
. At
day three
DATE
of the strike there. Talk to us about what's happening. What would the mood was on the ground and whether or not there's gonna be more industrial industrial unrest not just a feeling so but beyond in the
UK
GPE
. Really interesting talking to workers on the picket line
Tom
PERSON
. They said that they're going to stay there holding out until they get a
10%
PERCENT
pay rise because of course we've Double digit inflation in the
UK
GPE
.
Workers on the picket line
Tom
PERSON
they said that they're going to stay there holding out until they get a
10%
PERCENT
pay rise because of course we've got double Inflation in the
UK
GPE
. But of course we had that forecast from the city
yesterday
DATE
saying that inflation in the
UK
GPE
could go
above 18%
PERCENT
next year
DATE
. So I asked them Even if you got
10%
PERCENT
that would look nigger by the time we get to
2023
CARDINAL
they said they'd hope to renegotiate in
the New Year
EVENT
I should Out though that that city forecast is perhaps a bit aggressive because it assumes that policy makers will do nothing and there's a report on the terminal
today
DATE
by my colleague
Joe Mays
PERSON
reporting that
Liz Trust
ORG
would at least do an emergency spending A budget but a spending package to help people with their In
September
DATE
. Okay, there's a burden. Thank you very much indeed. Just to to remind viewers so that manufacturing peer might have always had a journey. Was actually better than the forecast but also as a beat on
July
DATE
as well.
49
DATE
.
Eight
CARDINAL
for
the month of August
DATE
. Compared to
49
CARDINAL
.
Three
CARDINAL
in
July
DATE
and the
Euro
PERSON
just pairing somewhere Losses on the back of that data currently down
two tenths around two tenths of a percent
QUANTITY
still at below parity now as we just heard concerns โฌ
4
MONEY
area economies continue Out or maybe maybe this pier my date around me is sway just some of the more drastic concerns is having the impacts on the euro as I mentioned currently at trading below parity What is happening in terms of the dollar king dollar is is a key factor When it comes to the
europe
LOC
but also of course sterling and EM currently said no mirror G 10
FX
ORG
strategy spoke to us earlier About the perfect storm that is engulfing the single currency at the moment It has been mostly a dollar story. Euro has an under performed as much as I think it should. I think the the
FX
ORG
market is totally miss pricing. The situation you're the situation is a complete rethink of the economic model near your zone and I'm just it is struggle. It's strange for all of us to see the euro. Sending off so slowly. I think it should be much faster We'll be testing
97 50
CARDINAL
down towards
ยข95
PERSON
in
the next few months
DATE
. Now, we're joined by
John Hardy
PERSON
. He's head of
FX
ORG
strategy at
Saxobank
ORG
.
John
PERSON
, good
morning
TIME
. So, going back to that
German
NORP
manufacturing
PMI
ORG
, a bit better than expected but anything below
50
CARDINAL
. Still indicates a contraction. What are currently stretches missing? I mean, we're heading towards a recession and and there's probably a little way out of it. Yeah. We've gone down pretty far, pretty fast. Let's recall we're trading. Up above
103
CARDINAL
, not that long ago. Found well below parody, yes, a slight beat on that, but if you look forward, of course, at these energy prices, these
four
CARDINAL
prices for power for natural gas, we're talking about levels from
Kiwanis
NORP
. I'm And understanding that companies are some companies who are not simply not hedging at these prices so either the prices have to come down or or production will stop To some degrees. So, that's that's the oblique outlook you have in
Europe
LOC
with this current shutdown of the
Northstream
LOC
on pipeline etcetera. So, yes, the
Europe
LOC
your zone and the euro is be set with a very ugly menu of problems and I see continued pressure There unless there's something a very dramatic it develops in the the
US
GPE
dollar side of things and I'm not saying that. So, this parody break, it could be quite considerable and we're looking down towards the next big round levels. The oh spot
95
CARDINAL
, even oh spot
90
CARDINAL
if We're seeing in the
Ford
ORG
market for for power et cetera. If we realize those prices. What would take
00
DATE
.
Nine 5090
DATE
. What what gets euro to
090
CARDINAL
.
John
PERSON
. Is there a job? Let's when you have when you begin to have an actual shutdown of key parts of industry a real a real crisis during the winter this is not something I'm calling for it's it's a risk we do have a hopes that the the natural gas bill is sufficient to keep
Europe
LOC
won
Winter
DATE
but actual manufacturing could be another story and as your previous strategist indicated you're talking about a re redefinition or rebuilding of
the entire years
DATE
on growth model particularly in
Germany
GPE
which was unfortunately based too much on cheap Cheap
Russian
NORP
gas. That takes time. This is not something you accomplished over the course of
a single winter
DATE
. So, this is a long-term issue. In the meantime, I think the
US
GPE
the
US
GPE
dollar and
US
GPE
economy strength We could see it just sort of rolling on for
another quarter
CARDINAL
plus beyond what the market's expecting in terms of the
I think the
US
GPE
the
US
GPE
dollar and
US
GPE
economy strength We could see it just sort of rolling on for
another quarter
CARDINAL
plus beyond what the market's expecting in terms of the the timing of the recession the timing of the inflation slowdown and I think that's gonna keep the dollar bid the
fed
ORG
is gonna have to stay on message probably see that
this week
DATE
with the the Pals Beach but as well quantitative tightening and that hasn't really even Screwed up to this the pace that we need to deceive. Just going quickly back to the auzon so our
Bloomberg
GPE
economist actually Can have a shallow recession as long as consumers are shielded towards, you know, for the energy cost going up. Is that possible? Like, if we have a much Or
winter
DATE
? Actually stop that you should be in its track and raising rates. Well It's a cost of living crisis it's a it's a real slowdown so it might be shallow or it may be short but I'm not sure it's gonna be that particular particularly shallow in terms of the real GDP impact so it really Ends on what the energy price looks like. Come spring. I think if you wanna call this recession and and I'm simply not capable of telling anybody what's that price might be and that's going to be the determinant here. When it comes to to the pound a sterling John yields up and we saw that yesterday and yet the pound continues to be hammered. Trading according to some like an EM currency. Does does it continue Tell us about about the state of the
UK
GPE
economy. Hey Well it tells us about the state of the confidence in in the pound because it is a as you say it's a very remarkable set of developments when you have The rates are pricing in a tremendous you know significant acceleration of the bank of
England
GPE
's had a tightening plans and yet the currency does not respond. I think it speaks to the the set of issues facing the
UK
GPE
with the massive external deficits with the new government coming on board. Very popular
Gram
PERSON
not likely to shore up the fiscal situation in any meaningful way. And
Stoney
PERSON
is going to take the impact there It just yawning. Again, yawning external deficits. I I don't see what approves the situation for the pound and you know, it was talking about the euro. I think the pound is in even worse situation. I mean, we could be talking about parody Starting US dollar by
the end of this winter
DATE
, if something doesn't improve in this outlook. What's your call on on your sterling Brooklyn. You're a sterling sort of indifference. If you are, you know, I think I think
Sterling
ORG
's issues are are heavier. I think we could go a bit higher but I'm not expecting drama and that's and that pairing but I would I would expect starting to come out on the weaker side of that incoming
months
DATE
. Okay
John Hardy
PERSON
head of
FX Stransing
ORG
at
Sankso Bank
ORG
at the pound could get to parenting with the
US
GPE
dollar by
the end of this winter
DATE
thank you very much for your takes coming up
Chinese
NORP
banks are employing unusual practices To inflate their loan volumes. We look at
Vulnerabilities
LOC
being baked in to the
Chinese
NORP
economy. Stay with us this is.
This week
DATE
as the world watches inflation rise employment rebound and fiscal policies react all roads lead to
Jackson
GPE
home for the kansas city feds
2022
CARDINAL
economic policy symposium Discuss the economic issues and solutions that keep the world's money moving coverage starts
August 25
DATE
on
Bloomberg
PERSON
television and radio
Is it possible the industries in an arms race that will Lead to spending itself into an over supply. I mean, that has happened before We we we've looked at this very carefully and yo, the digitalization of everything. Tell me what aspect of your life Emily isn't becoming more digital. Well, I'm trying to prevent that but yeah. I think it's happening. And
COVID
ORG
has accelerated that. The industry cost
500 1 billion dollars
MONEY
last year
DATE
. The semiconductor industry overall and estimatar a
one 1 trillion dollars
MONEY
. A doubling by
the end of the decade
DATE
. At that point. Leave those estimates. It's not that there's not gonna be some blitz and turns on the way and the majority of that is driven by Process technology but which
only three
CARDINAL
companies can satisfy that needle. No one covers the world like
bloomberg
PERSON
. Seven% in
the coming months
DATE
.
24 hours
TIME
a day. Welcome back to the open everyone with
45 minutes
TIME
into the
European
NORP
trading day we're seeing games that we didn't see at the open
about 45 minutes
TIME
European
NORP
stocks down
one 10th
CARDINAL
of a percent. A lot of people
Tom
PERSON
are actually on holiday which is I know volumes are a little bit thinner and really it's all about
Jackson Honey
PERSON
. I have such a big speech from
J. Powell
PERSON
. Everyone's kind of a little bit away than sea mode, right? I feel in a wedding sea mode. I'm like looking at tickets for
Harry Styles
PERSON
or maybe a couple of football games. I look at the markets But it's really
Friday
DATE
because you're entertainment use them. Football games. I mean we're still buffaloed by why you're a
Chelsea
PERSON
fan but we'll we'll look past that. They're playing for him. Okay all I care about is the fact that Arsenal are doing very very well indeed. There we go. There's entertainment. Yeah of course we're looking how to
Jackson
GPE
. Is it a big surprise that we're expecting more
Hawkish
NORP
Commissioner? There's gonna be a pushback. Mark the the liquidity depends on how hockey is right. That's not a For the
fed
ORG
officials within the
fed
ORG
of suggested trying to push back on on this narrative that we're seeing from the markets that you're gonna get a pivot. The JP Morgan saying the last big hike is gonna come
September
DATE
. They're not saying is the end of the hiking cycle but the last big
175
CARDINAL
base points in
September
DATE
. Yeah. And then you're gonna get an easing off and that's gonna approve supportive. The Bulls at JP
Morgan
PERSON
. Yeah, what I love is also On
Twitter
PERSON
and also hear all the time and it feels like the market are finally clocking up to the fact that there is something that that will happen in the winter If we have a very cold
winter
DATE
and so those prices are just going through the roof in
the middle of August
DATE
. On on oil and and what is happening with this energy crisis and there's an energy crisis in
China
GPE
as well but we're gonna be talking about what's happening in terms of real estate and in terms of the demand for loans. The energy crisis by the way hitting such one. In
China
GPE
. Some banks from flating low numbers as they struggle to meet government demands inflating. Demands to pump more credit into The economy is an intriguing story. It tells us a lot about what is happening in that economy. Let's bring in Bloomberg Sr. Editor for
Greater China Finance
ORG
Jonas Bergman
PERSON
in
Hong Kong
GPE
. Join us. What is driving this inflation there are the numbers out of banks. They're kind of fiddling the books for the regulators to try and show that there's demands blown when maybe there isn't. Well, there there's certain being creative. It's it's an interesting development. The
Chinese
NORP
banks
Chinese
NORP
banks are caught in a very tight spot right now. On the one hand, as you said, the government is banging the drum for them to land more, to get the economy going, while on the other hand, they are finding very few Is
One
CARDINAL
hand as you said the government is banging the drum for them to learn more to get the economy going well on the other hand they are finding very few To wanna take out loans given the uncertainty in the economy so back as we have spoken to say that a certain window dressing is going on with lenders dolling out loans and then taking back those funds basically paying the same rate on on the demanding the same rate on loans and the deposits So with credit growth credit increase
last month
DATE
hitting
a 5 year
DATE
low it's it's it's it's it's incredible that that in fact those numbers were even more dire than than they showed. So
Jordan
PERSON
's what are the risks actually of this approach Well, well, given the the the banks are currently also dealing with a major property crisis big big rises in loan losses. So, certainly Narrow emojis so certainly these types of activities is is not gonna help that. There are also in
China
GPE
. A lot of smaller companies climbing for financing. Which are, you know, and banks tend to be the big banks in
China
GPE
tend to be fairly conservative. So, Smaller companies millions and millions of them are are being forced to pay rather high rates outside of the you know outside of the the regulatory or more in the in the non banking market so there's a lot of risks for the
Chinese
NORP
economy coming up and and you know just this sort of window dressing is is probably not Best right now on the for any any any party in the economy really. Do you wanna thank so much
Johnsburgman
NORP
there in
Hong Kong
GPE
tour I have played
two
CARDINAL
more of course on
China
GPE
one of the most interesting probably stories that we had in
August
DATE
and that surprised by PBOC that they did so little about 2 weeks ago to support some of the households so we're actually real estate coming up shares in the world
second
ORDINAL
biggest cinema group
Continue
ORG
to plunge coming up. We look at what's next. For the troubled, very troubled company. This is
Bloover
GPE
. Soaring energy prices in a short supply of key chemicals that produce synthetic fertilizers Are sending pig, cow, and horseman your price is soaring even human waste is in demand as farmers hunt for alternatives fertilizer helps increase crop yields How much moisture is held into this? It's it's a lot of organic material into the compost of breaks down the menu and the straw breaks down into a Fryable mix so it can be mixed into your Soil in the ground and and for growing a whole range of different vegetables Hold the nutrients in holds the water and harm it really increases the The kind of buyer any profile disorder. The recent price bike could mean more farmers going organic for the long term.
I think that it's hard to put your head around any narrative. Let's just be honest. We've had sort of a shift in are we in some sort of calculation, fears, moment, people are talking about that
all day
DATE
yesterday
DATE
. Welcome back to the open we are
52 minutes
TIME
into the
European
NORP
trading day you're seeing a bit of an adjustment
Sentiment
PERSON
after that significant seller that we saw on Wall St
yesterday
DATE
you're essentially just down about a little under a 10th of a percent across the
European
NORP
benchmark but future state side of turned around
US
GPE
features SMP minis pointing to gains of a little over a 10th of a percent a similar pitch for the Nasdaq of course which sold off at
more than two
CARDINAL
. Six%
yesterday
DATE
the
Euro
ORG
as well Some of the earlier losses to currently trade still below parenting at
nine nine
DATE
at
three
CARDINAL
six. Just down the
10th
ORDINAL
of a percent after some manufacturing peer mi for
the month of August
DATE
at a
Germany
GPE
came in better than expected. They're still in contractionary territory. Right, let's take a look at the events
today
DATE
. Other events that we are watching
this morning
TIME
. We're gonna get more PMIs from
Europe France
GPE
and
Germany
GPE
. With the Eurozone at
9 AM
TIME
London
GPE
time and the
UK
GPE
at
930
CARDINAL
. Then at
noon
TIME
at
Europe
LOC
here in
Europe
LOC
the focus continues to be with
Fabia Panetta
ORG
speaking in
Milan
GPE
at
3 PM
TIME
after the
US
GPE
markets We're gonna get new house sales data painting a clearer picture of the state of the
US
GPE
economy in
the last month
DATE
the mid some pretty decent reporting from
Bloomberg
PERSON
around the drop in house prices in some of the hottest markets there yeah it's good reporting elsewhere in the
US
GPE
primary elections in
Florida
GPE
and in
New York
GPE
later tonight
TIME
we'll hear from
Minneapolis
GPE
fed presidential
Kashkari
PERSON
as
Justin Trudeau
PERSON
on
day two
DATE
of his
3 day
DATE
visit the focus
Diversify Germany's
FAC
energy supply. Right, let's talk. Also, about center world, shares in
London
GPE
based cinema chains, cinema world dropping again
today
DATE
after an
80%
PERCENT
drop
last week
DATE
. Now, the firm said it was considering a voluntary
chapter 11
LAW
filing in the
US
GPE
. As it seeks to cut its
five 1 billion dollars
MONEY
debt. Now, joining Also maybe trying to get some bargains to go to Not happening but what exactly is this company like why isn't it such bad position They had a very bold strategy in
the years
DATE
heading up to the pandemic. They borrowed
Lee
PERSON
to acquire regal in the
US
GPE
, which, you know, built them an empire, made them the
second
ORDINAL
biggest chain in the world, but that had them at a high percentage, a high multiple, and you know, no one plans for a oh revenue outcome, but that's what they faced and now, you know, after extending many lifelines negotiating with land Negotiating with lenders, waivers,
Sort
PERSON
of running out of road and they've they're looking at their voluntary Come back to haunt them. What what is next then for this company do they become they go through bankruptcy they do chat to
11
CARDINAL
did they then become AA takeover target what happens with their assets how do you see the unfolding yeah I mean Of questions and and what we're gonna have to to do some reporting and see but if if they do carry through with the the
chapter 11
LAW
they'll be protracted talks with creditors they may end up taking control of the company and you know then they've got new owners already that we'll see what they want to do that will erase questions over jobs oversight And over the strategy which you know some have criticized even before the pandemic so you know these processes can take
months
DATE
even
years
DATE
so we'll we'll wait and see they they criticise that the film slate
this year
DATE
in a world and that that's another reason why they believe that this has come sooner than maybe they expected you know not many big summer blockbuster Those big movies going straight to streaming versus being released into the into the cinemas but a bold sometimes these these pay off and in this case it has. They could have looked like
James
PERSON
. Is that your is that your call for the movie to watch? That's it. That's my call. There we go. Fantastic. Much on the plight of
Sydney World
ORG
and we'll continue to watch that story for you. As well, in terms of the market, is this a quick to check before we get to break currently across the benchmark. You're down just
a little under a 10th
DATE
of a percent here in
And we'll continue to watch that story for you as well in terms of the market this is a quick to check before we get to break eh currently across the benchmark you're down just
a little under a 10th
DATE
of a percent here in
Europe
LOC
but futures as we mentioned In the
US
GPE
pointing up now
SMP
ORG
is up
two
CARDINAL
tens of percent similar picture for the Nasdaq as well Euro still parenting but in
99 33
DATE
just down
a 10th
CARDINAL
of a percent a little bit of a turn Sentiment of the heavy selling in the
US
GPE
yesterday
DATE
. Stay with us. That is it for the
European
NORP
market open surveillance early edition is up next. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. When I started I had no idea what's going on turn into this. Empire. I don't have any investors. All this is all money in. This is me going on hustling, bringing that money back, and just building, building it, building it. Yeah, I think about a person that was homeless at
one
CARDINAL
point. Didn't really have any money coming in. The fact that this person was relentless and just determined to succeed and not let rock bottom define him as an individual. I can take things and put them together and take them apart and make them better and put them back together I respect the crowd so I don't wanna minimize and disrespect the value of each step of the craft and do by machine what should be done by hand
Bloomberg
PERSON
has enhanced search on the terminal to deliver what you need when you need it now you can simply type phrases in everyday
English
LANGUAGE
in the command line Compare financials Analyze Marcus You can enter phrases Or ask questions What do you want to know
today
DATE
? Ask a question or visit search go to find answers now. On the David Rubenstein show here to peer conversations I uncover the untold stories of the world's most successful leaders watch
Wednesdays
DATE
on Bloomberg Television Hey Facebook Welcome to Dead Australia. Hey I don't think it needs to be part of the cure but we we've experienced that we let inflation build up over time like it's in the 70s it was
7 years
DATE
of higher hiring We nip it in the bud which I still think we can then you don't have to have these negative effects that people worried about. We are working hard to become independent of this gas supply and we are doing a lot of investments to make it happen and we are doing it as fast as ever possible. Never such an infrastructure has In
Germany
GPE
and that is short time.
Canada
GPE
can and will position itself to be. A key supplier of energy to the world. Is
Bloomberg
PERSON
surveillance early edition with
Francine Laqua
PERSON
. Well, good morning everyone in
Walk
ORG
.
Surveillance Well, good morning everyone and welcome to
Bloomberg Surveillance
PERSON
. Early edition in front of here in
London
GPE
, here's what's coming up on
today
DATE
's program. Below parody, recession fears, and the energy crisis, push through euro to a
two decade
DATE
low. Stocks in the red, well, glow black hoodies continue to slide after their worst route in
PMI
ORG
coming
49
DATE
.
Seven
CARDINAL
it's a touch better Mainly supported by
Germany
GPE
but again anything below
50
CARDINAL
means there's still a contraction if you look at services
PMI
ORG
that's falling
50
CARDINAL
.
Two
CARDINAL
so that's actually worse than expected now the picture across the board for
European
NORP
stocks pretty much unchanged traders really bracing from a lot more hawkishness from the Speaking to
Arlyn Thomas
PERSON
and really one of the things that we need to spend More time on is a currency
yesterday
DATE
we touch parody currently at
199 31
DATE
and this really goes back not only to energy supply in
Germany
GPE
but also dollar strength king dollar and what that happens or what happens with that
next 6 months
DATE
the 10 year
DATE
yield that
0109
DATE
. Again, if you look at the change in the markets and we'll get I think to the map shortly. It's very clear that the markets are expecting a lot of hawkish stance from the federal reserve maybe not to something that was priced in but certainly energy shares amongst the the only industry group
today
DATE
making some pretty
Finance
ORG
minister not That they could cut a production the
UK
GPE
you can see the footsy down
two
CARDINAL
tenths of eight% so mark it's a waiting clues on how It will be a central bankers gather
this week
DATE
at
Jackson Hall
FAC
. We spoke to
Stanford University Economics
ORG
Professor
John Taylor
PERSON
who's at the very
first
ORDINAL
conference for that kids ago. Well, he says the
fed
ORG
should be more communicative about where policy has to go. I say five% is what we should aim Let's let that and that is not high by historical standard that's Remember what it was in
the 70s
DATE
. But it's it could be high. I would say I wouldn't say absolutely
five
CARDINAL
. If inflation doesn't come down then it may have to be higher but I think a place will come down and we can stick it at a level like that but let's get there
first
ORDINAL
. Now we're joined by
Morgan De LaDonna
ORG
head of Vestal
Stragy
PERSON
for
Europe
LOC
at Global XEF Morgan thank you so much for joining us a lot of the focus is actually on equities but it's What are the forces that could push at
some point dollar
MONEY
to stabilize someone? That's the markets are expecting more occasionist from But
one
CARDINAL
thing that shoots tabilize the pair would be a more occasionist from the ECB as well because when you look at headline inflation in
Europe
LOC
core inflation in
Europe
LOC
they're Trading higher to it turning higher and that is likely to trigger some more occasions from the ECB and that should stabilize the the pair. So how hard can you expecting this to be to be despite some of these concerns of course about even a protracted and ugly downturn if energy prices go much higher? I think for the He'd be the key input to inform their decision in terms of the size of the hike we'll still be cool inflation in the near future because when you look Services inflation. It's training higher. So, I do think the ECB might go for another
50
CARDINAL
baby spontaneous. And that that is something that is not currently priced in because the market is Focus on the downtown on the economic side but given the energy crisis in
Europe
LOC
I do think that inflation will probably be more in focus at the ECB than actually the incoming data inflation definitely and focus everywhere because Cost of living crisis if there's enough support to fiscally from countries can we avoid the worst of a recession It's really hard to say I think at the moment there's taxation scenario is becoming that the most likely scenario in
Europe
LOC
and that could come up.
It's really hard to say I think at the moment this taxation scenario is becoming that the most likely scenario in
Europe
LOC
and that could come That could happen actually before
the end of year
DATE
so stagnation is the the main risk physical side it can be contestatically cool but at this point in time given the inflammation Data is seems that it's pretty unlikely to have anything on top of what's already Agreed on. So we're gonna overall what are you most when you look at the markets? What do you think is most being mispriced? Well there's disconnect between
Headline
WORK_OF_ART
is something interesting I'm looking at because when you look at the headline inflation there is a likely risk that the market is seeing the
fed
ORG
to remain okay but headline in fishing may have already So yes the market may have priced these
Dovish
NORP
Peter Early prematurely but made perhaps by not too much. We have a great chart actually looking at what we're seeing in terms of energy and the fact that some of the energy panic is really also hurting your upper Of putting some great charts together on the back of those flash
PMI
ORG
is when you look at natural gas apparent coal like this kind of chart should traders you know to take action more than they have so far What is this charted definition shows the challenge from from the ECB a bit of a catch
22
CARDINAL
where the ECB is trying to cap to cap inflation so far The the control over headline inflation has been complicated because it's what's mostly driven by So the ECB that that is the reason for the ECB to continue to to high interest rates despi Some some down toes but all of these rise in
European
NORP
energy prices is is saying that yes the picket headline inflation may be quarters maybe For
spring next year
DATE
. They're ahead of investment strategy for
Europe
LOC
at global
Staying
PERSON
with us. Now, coming up, the
German
NORP
Chancellor,
Olive Schulz
PERSON
, visits
Canada
GPE
, has his government works to reduce
Germany
GPE
's dependence on
Russian
NORP
gas imports. We have more of that story next and this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
.
This week
DATE
As the world watches inflation rise employment rebound and fiscal policies react all roads lead to
Jackson
GPE
home for the kansas city feds
2022
CARDINAL
economic policies
Bloomberg
PERSON
's all-star team is alive as policy makers and financial insiders discuss the economic issues and solutions that keep the world's money moving coverage starts
August 25
DATE
on
Bloomberg
PERSON
television and radio If you do any kind of business in this country, there's a pretty good chance that you're gonna see that business registered in
Delaware
GPE
. Why? Because that's where you do it In our point was
Wyoming
GPE
can beat that venue for blockchain enterprise for crypto Freedom we want that individuality and that's a common theme that brings together bipartisan support for this in
Wyoming
GPE
we wanna make sure that people understand especially in
Wyoming
GPE
but as
United States
GPE
as a whole this trend is coming it's not going to stop. This is more of a small town that's growing into what I would call the
This trend is coming. It's not going to stop. More of a small town that's growing into what I would call the cryptocurrency version of
Silicone Valley
FAC
. Really get things done for yourself and control your own destiny. You get that from a blockchain and you don't get that without it. I'm
David Weston
PERSON
. We think that's the next secular shift. Yes, it's about renewables. This is a level of uncertainty that we haven't had to deal with. Television and radio. I got
Alex Finance
PERSON
politics. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
surveillance. Early edition and fronting like we're here in
London
GPE
. Now,
German
NORP
Unreal unreliable
Russian
NORP
energy supplies for the chancellor all of Schultz went to
Canada
GPE
as a part of a push to Alternative source of gas and he emphasize that his government is working hard to end its dependence on
Russian
NORP
gas We are working hard to become independent of this gas supply and we are doing a lot of investments to make it happen and we are doing it as fast as ever possible never
Reception
ORG
infrastructure has been built in
Germany
GPE
and that is short time Easing the processes because of the difficulty that that
Germany
GPE
is facing to make sure that we can move through regulatory hurdles more quickly is something we're willing to do but there needs to be a business case it needs to make sense Sorry butchered your name cuz it's a
Tuesday
DATE
in
August
DATE
. I will get it right. I promise. I'm at we'll all alternatives do
Russian
NORP
gas to
Russian
NORP
gas. Actually, does
Europe
LOC
have in the short term and longer term? While indeed in the short term
Europeans
NORP
groups are quite scars because it has to get
LNG
ORG
from the market available cargos that already been produced so it's up to the companies that they're able to supply this
Monacos
GPE
to for example this allergy
Canada
GPE
Canada
GPE
quite close to
Europe
LOC
Is
the few days
DATE
of shipping but the the deal cancels on west part so it's a very difficult to read the gospel was to to east and to the loss of projects to
Bill
PERSON
and she passed counter for
years
DATE
and none of them have moved Possible. We'll see if it's John's interest. We'll push them forward but Business case actually feel this energy Thought of It's not an easy task for you So Anna is there at any ceiling to prices? Well there's
Los Angeles
GPE
as you see prices are now already
more than 20
CARDINAL
of over 10 times a higher than
six
CARDINAL
now average for for the summertime and energy aspects that
Pipeline
ORG
is going to be shut for
3 days
DATE
in from
the 31st
DATE
of And the reason Will not come online
Pipeline
ORG
is going to be shut for
3 days
DATE
in
the 31st of August
DATE
and the risk is market sponsor that the pipeline will not come online after the maintenance and the prices good at a good search higher is that happens now that the ceiling might come from demand destruction because at least high prices were
Limited
PERSON
so see the remaining of of this very high prices on industry in particular a chemical industry and particular in
Germany
GPE
as well And I thank you so much. I wanna try not to mispronounce anything. If I actually get it wrong, I wanna pay a mega
watts
LOC
which will make you rich woman in
like a week
DATE
. I know she ruska. Joining us on the very latest. For energy prices. Now, we're back with more
Gandalidon
ORG
, head of investments strategy for
Europe
LOC
global We're gonna we talked a little bit about of course the energy price. Again, it seems that when you look at equities and I guess the problem is the energy is that it's used for making everything. If you're if you're making for example glass in
Germany
GPE
and the price goes up you may also be shut down. It is it are the markets realizing this What exactly is priced in? I think it's This pass through effect now in terms of equities and an activities we we do see that there is a slow down in a Now in
Germany
GPE
that will lower the gas demand and maybe reduce some of the demand and therefore some of the pressure on the price down the line but there is still a risk in the short term because of They they capacity of of building reserve before
winter
DATE
in in
Germany
GPE
seems quite challenging despite lots of effort To try to see alternatives. So, in the short term, I think there is still some options
LNG
ORG
we mentioned it before but also like nuclear. There is also Change that
Germany
GPE
reassess is view on on
Nuka
PERSON
power if there is a risk to the economy so nuclear and
Europe
LOC
has been actually one of the the
first
ORDINAL
option for for some other countries in the
UK
GPE
France
GPE
and that that could be something for the shorter down the line so we're gonna talk to me Yeah down the line finish with that yeah down the line it's more looking at investment in clean energy as we knew it both and and hydrogen yeah we're gonna Zoom in for the
UK
GPE
so we have this pretty incredible call by city saying inflation could
17%
PERCENT
. Really mean because it costs a living crisis due to this energy While in the
UK
GPE
on top of having an energy crisis you also have a effect and the
UK
GPE
imports a lot so that there's still maybe in terms of this taxation scenario it's even bigger in the
UK
GPE
compared to continental
Europe
LOC
that is for sure but in terms of Acting inflation. It's really hard to say because there are lots of moving parts on on the energy side and any will all depend on what is the solution in the near
10
CARDINAL
. Do we like increase nuclear capacity or I will reducing demand. Alright we'll get thank Ahead of investment strategy for
Europe
LOC
at global ex ETFs now coming up full coverage of
the Jackson Whole Summit
ORG
will bring you top interviews and analysis of course it's all about the currency market so we'll look into that euro dollar
yesterday
DATE
below parody currently at
90
CARDINAL
I think about One where's next to this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
.
China
GPE
's appetite for energy is enormous. The country consumes about a quarter of the world's energy supply
35%
PERCENT
more than the
US
GPE
annually
DATE
. It's energy needs more than triple since
the year 2000
DATE
. That consumption has helped to feel astonishing growth But it's come at a cost.
China
GPE
is the world's largest greenhouse gas cemeter. There is no way to tackle climate change unless
China
GPE
reduces its emissions to
nine
CARDINAL
oh. The countries reliance on fossil fuels is also a hindrance to its own growth and the well being of its citizens. It has a long standing pollution problem and it is also prone to outages that severely hamper industry All this has led the world's biggest polluter to take steps towards a radical transformation. Access the financial world on demand Hear from leading economists Policy makers. And industry experts via live and on demand webinars. Only from
Bloomberg
ORG
. Start exploring to see what's moving the markets. Visit
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Com webinars If they move in a way that's anticipated another maybe
75
CARDINAL
basis points the next one we don't know there's there's some discussion about that then it will indicate that they're on the way and I think what's most important now we've learned from history on this learn from our experience is the That can communicate what's objective is it would like to get back
two%
ORG
inflation it needs to do this by a
Montreal
GPE
policy that reduces inflation does reduce the growth the economy just inflation better off will be so that communication that stipulated about what the policy will be like is very important right now and I hope that does John when he comes to where we're at in the markets we're seeing extreme bullishness not so much
today
DATE
but we've seen the rally just continue to build Over
the years
DATE
for you what roller have financial conditions played and should the
fed
ORG
be paying more attention to this or at least a loot to that fact in order to sort of bring down this bullishness that Well they have to pay attention to the the markets obviously what they're they have an impact on the markets and the markets have impact on them but I think that the more they are deliverative this is what needs to be done this is what's worked in the past this is how we can do it The the more convincing it will be I think that what the markets don't like is uncertainty about what's gonna happen to us more uncertainty today I think that's one of the reasons why the markets went down but the the more the default can indicate Needs to be gone. That's why these rules are so called
Taylor
PERSON
or whatever you wanna call it or advantageous cuz it says, hey, we need to move a little bit further and hopefully, that will cure the problem a more rapidly than people expect. John when you wrote about this and not in 80 to you flagged the scenario right early deceleration risking the issue around credibility and then that the risk of of really disinflation causing a risk
You flagged the scenario right early deceleration risking the issue around credibility and then that the risk of of really disinflation causing a recession given perhaps from the policy errors before does that mean we're at a point where recession is going to be maybe a likely cure for this battle of inflation? I don't think Needs to be part of the cure what we we've experienced if we let in place and build up over time like it's in the 70s it was
7 years
DATE
of hiring. If we nip it in the bud which I still think we can then you don't have to have these negative effects that people worried about their right to worry about cuz they've seen in the past but the more that there can be a stipulation, this is what we need to do. This is good Montreal. This will make the economy healthier. It should make us stronger growing economy as a That well recently we're not even faster and I think that's what we should emphasize. This is better for
Josh
PERSON
. This is better for the economy. This is better. And also it would mention the world economy. We Each and all over the place right now. Well that was
Stanford University Economics
ORG
Professor
John Taylor
PERSON
now let's get straight to the
Bloomberg
PERSON
first one is here's
Leanne
ORG
's hi
Leanne
PERSON
hi friends saying
Sonia Arabia's
PERSON
energy ministers has Opec and it's allies maybe forced to cut output as the future's market has become increasingly disconnected from fundamentals Prince Harmful volatility is disturbing the basic functions of the market Opec Plus meets
next month
DATE
to consider production targets now
British Airways
ORG
says it's scrapping about 5000 return flights in
the coming months
DATE
that is after cancelling
about 13%
PERCENT
Due to a staffage shortage and extended capacity curves at its
London Heathrow
ORG
hub
BA
ORG
says passengers who have been affected can rebook alternative flight or even seek refunds now Doctor
Anthony Fauci
PERSON
who became a household name during the pandemic is to step down at
the end of the year
DATE
the
Us
GPE
infectious disease expert has run
the national institute of allergy
ORG
and infectious diseases since
1984
DATE
advising
seven
CARDINAL
presidents on every major infectious disease outbreaks since the HIV crisis for
81 year old
DATE
says he's leading to pursue the next chapter of his career The
US
GPE
has warned that
Russia
GPE
's preparing to launch intensified strikes against
Ukraine
GPE
's government facilities in
the coming days
DATE
this comes after President
Vladimir Putin
PERSON
called the car bomb that killed the daughter of an ally a quote dusterly crime
Ukraine
GPE
is preparing to celebrate independence day
tomorrow
DATE
which also
marks Global
PERSON
news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and on
Bloomberg
PERSON
quick take powered by
more than 2700
CARDINAL
journalists and analysts in
more than 120
CARDINAL
countries and
Leanne Garrens
PERSON
this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
of
France
GPE
scene That's coming up next and this is
Denver
GPE
.
Is it possible the industries in an arms race that will Lead to spending itself into an over supply. I mean, that has happened before We we we've looked at this very carefully and yo, the digitalization of everything. Tell me what aspect of your life Emily isn't becoming more digital. Well, I'm trying to prevent that but yeah. Hey COVID has accelerated that. The industry cost
500 1 billion dollars
MONEY
last year
DATE
. Estimate And the majority of that is driven by Process technology of which
only three
CARDINAL
companies can satisfy that needle. Difference between endless research and a winning strategy
Bloomberg Law
PERSON
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Bloomberg Law
PERSON
At
Jackson Hall
FAC
. Plus Opec on alert while crew games after
Sadi Arabia
GPE
warns the Lions could cut production to support prices. Now we're just getting some
UK
GPE
data shortly of course all of the talk is on that city group note
yesterday
DATE
saying that in Hear the
UK
GPE
if you assume that energy prices go much higher so the cost of living crisis is getting much worse inflation could hit
some 17% a 17%
PERCENT
inflation given the back of For the moment. I mean, are we looking at
six%
GPE
? Are we looking at
seven
CARDINAL
What does that mean for I mean, if you'll get mortgages and how much people, of course, are dependent on that we could see a real, a crisis in the
UK
GPE
. Alright, we're just getting those figures out in the
UK
GPE
,
August
DATE
manufacturing,
46
DATE
, forecast was for 51 So it's much much much worse than expected from manufacturing. Again, anything below 50 and we're at
46
DATE
is a contraction. Now,
August
DATE
services at
PMI
ORG
falling to
52
CARDINAL
.
Five
CARDINAL
. That's a touch better than expected. The other story of course, weaker pound and you kind of just wonder what that endpoint Is that we earlier had some euro area PMIs. It declined that they declined for
second month
DATE
according to new
PMI
ORG
data just out. Now, they signal that fears of recession mail already becoming to pass as record inflation stops demanding weakness, sips into more and more sectors joining us now to break this down for us as
Lizzy
PERSON
Bird and
Lizzy
PERSON
.
First
ORDINAL
of all, that
UK Manufacturing
ORG
much worse than expected. Yes, and but you've still got growth in services and on the composite. In is the same as the euro zone looking ahead. They
bloomberg
PERSON
economics reckon Going to get a recession later in the year you've already got consumer confidence
Economics reckon you're going to get a recession later in the year you've already got consumer confidence at the level that's consistent with a recession. Er and what I would also point out is just looking ahead. Er our economists reckon that the
UK
GPE
's recession Be milder than previous ones. Er because you've got healthy household balance sheets because we're expecting this fis Singulars from whoever is the next prime minister. But even you know let's try to saying that a recession isn't inevitable in the
UK
GPE
. Our economy say that all she can do is cushion the blue cos it is coming. So the figures I I think will get worse later in
the year
DATE
. Yeah I mean that city group note
yesterday
DATE
It was like really terrifying reading. I mean, I sent to everyone at news saying like, oh my gosh, interest rates at
six
CARDINAL
, seven%. It was like, wait, what does it mean for my mortgage? What's the So we've had a slew of data
this morning
TIME
. Let me start with
France
GPE
. It's slumped the lowest level since that destruction earlier in the pandemic. Er unexpectedly
Germany
GPE
though has already has gone to contracted again but that was what we did Back because of it's comparative higher reliance on your
Russian
NORP
natural gas. More broadly across the
Euro
ORG
zone. There's contractions driven by manufacturing. But also you're seeing services like tourism grinding to a halt again because of the inflation impact. So a lot of data but it it heralds a Run into
the end of the year
DATE
for your opinion economies unless surveyed by
Bloomberg
PERSON
do expect a recession and again it's a headache The ECB cos they're expected to continue hiking rates even though the economic momentum is feeding. Yeah and it's all happening on currency. Thank you
Lizzy
PERSON
Bird and there were the very latest on the
UK
GPE
and
European
NORP
economies. Now
millions
CARDINAL
of ungodlands will vote
this week
DATE
in the key election for the oil rich
Faces
WORK_OF_ART
it's toughest test yet against a rejuvenate rejuven
Opposition
ORG
. Central bank governor. Thank you governor for joining us in of course,
Bloomberg
PERSON
surveillance
today
DATE
. Now, if you look at what some of the, well, the region has a whole Particularly vulnerable to high food and energy prices. What can your Central Bank do to actually insulate
Angola
GPE
? Hi good morning and thank you so much for having us from
Simpson
PERSON
to us Pleasure to be here but as far as inflation is concerned
Angula
PERSON
as you know has been through very demanding program and how did the program here from outside
Central Bank
ORG
we also come back in very restricted market policy to ensure that we have prices that are stable level and
Around 27%
PERCENT
and
today
DATE
is
21
DATE
and we expect by
the end of this year
DATE
to be
below 18%
PERCENT
so the initiatives that I'm gonna have taken in the in recent past with all the Including the ones related with local traduction where we have seen us on an increase of food in the market. I think it's helping. So today I know that keeps on importing quite a lot. On a
monthly
DATE
basis we are important something like
200 1 million Dollars
MONEY
of food.
Years ago
DATE
, I mean your inflation target is
18%
PERCENT
for
2022
DATE
How much you have to increase interest rates to make sure that you hit that target. You're okay cuz today we how are basic infrastructure ladies on
20%
PERCENT
and actually as inflation is falling we expect also interest rates to to follow the same trends so we are not under any sort of pressure to increase interest rates actually we're gonna do all the way around as the equation is falling we'll Offering more chances for a local production to keep on flourishing. So you're not expecting to to hike rights. I think your next posting meeting is
September 26
DATE
.
September
DATE
yes and and we are not anticipating any increase on interest rates actually in the last
monthly
DATE
meeting we made a decision to reduce Rates.
And we are not anticipating any increase on interest rates actually in the last Meeting we made a decision to reduce Rates and we expect that if things remain with the same trends and now we
September
DATE
we may see again interest rates falling I know
Angola
ORG
's dead burden has been falling but I think it used to allow about 19 1 billion dollars to
China
GPE
. There's now talk about to
China
GPE
waivering some of their debt to certain countries. This is a goal or
one
CARDINAL
of them. Well minister finances taking care of that when it comes to external that I think we can use about a goal as far from
China
GPE
use that angle is diversifying it's sources of a finance and which is quite helpful but then it's the minutes you'll find it in our case is the
one
CARDINAL
building where whether with a
China
GPE
when To send about management not the central bank. Continue on the path to basically severe not several those ties but certainly diminish those ties with
China
GPE
. Yeah I think that I angler has to be open and asked to keep on looking for opportunities but they initiative that a country has been done in
the last few years
DATE
in some of the reforms that we're having to do it and
the Central Bank of India
ORG
where under foreign exchange market for instance we remove all the Bottom X that we used to have in the country. So,
today
DATE
, it is no longer require any sort of a licenses to import or expert funds into the country. So, it makes the markets more flexible, viable, and and again to us to have different an alternative ways to get finance. I think it helps. I have to say your currency is pretty incredible getting
more than 20%
PERCENT
against the dollar
this year
DATE
since
early 2022
DATE
which is one of the best performing currencies in the world where you continue to keep it free floating or will you try and saveguard some of your exchange reserves? No we will just let it be and the thing is that in the central bank we are concerned with reserves international resource management so we are our target is
10 months
DATE
cover of airports of goods and services we are Wrong 8 months of of coverage and so it's still below our target but we are not anticipating the need to intervene in the markets we just let the market function the way it is it's it's working just fine so today we go like we don't have people waiting for opportunities to make payments abroad Coming and seeking the central. Hey Facebook What's behind the strength of the
Kwanzaa
GPE
? I think of one is the monastery policy that we are conducting being respective. Cuz in
the past few years
DATE
to have a very expensive monitor policy in
Bangola
GPE
in all the public inefficiencies at
the end of the day
DATE
and they need to additional finance. We're supported by
the Central Bank
ORG
. Is no longer the case we have a far more respective more discipline actually once one or also has to be fair on the physical smile we can also see the efforts that authorities are making that but on our front far more discipline then you also and goal is an oil commander Help in the market Also increased and also one has to be recognized that all the initiatives to increase local production is also buying results so we are reporting glass which means that the currency has also taken a benefit of of those developments I'm gonna I know I wanna talk to you about banks and the banking sector. You have
25
CARDINAL
banks in the country but I think
five
CARDINAL
of them actually have the main market share. Are you expecting
Eminem
PERSON
and consolidation in your country? Yes we do. Actually we have recently made a decision to include the mineral capital requirements in
Angola
GPE
once again. It will come in force now in in
October
DATE
. Yeah but also we are witnessing that are some of the banks is that need is not just the requirement for additional capital is that I know that as we form the finances And we have adopted most of our recommendations References so we both know
Adopted most of our recommendations that are followed by
European
NORP
banks so that's this is one of the our preferences so with all of the with all those we forums is the market is becoming a full moon demanding for commercial banks in we are expecting a merges but also we have already I know I saw
one
CARDINAL
right yep that's fine Biggest private lender who's next. The one to be listed
this year
DATE
. It's happening. You were appointed
Central Bank
ORG
Governor in
2017
DATE
are you ready to go for another term? Well, yes. I'm I'm very happy with the work that we're doing here. We are satisfied with the results. But Keep on doing the job that we are doing the best we can possibly do Alright thank you so much for joining us Governor joining us for an extensive conversation ahead of the elections. Now, let's get straight to your
Bloomberg
GPE
business flash. Here's the end gear. It's highly on. Hi, friends.
Bloomberg
PERSON
has learned that
Apple
ORG
plans to begin manufacturing the iPhone
14
CARDINAL
in
India
GPE
about 2 months
DATE
after the Seeking alternatives to
China
GPE
as
Administration
ORG
clashes with the
US
GPE
government and imposes lockdowns across the country. Now
Elon Musk
PERSON
has subpoenaed as long time friend for my
Twitter
PERSON
CEO
Jack Dorsey
PERSON
and his illegal battle with the social media giant muskers seeking to collect documents and To show that
Twitter
PRODUCT
understated how much of its customer base is made up of spam and robot accounts
dozens
CARDINAL
of people have now been subpoenaed by both sides ahead of that expected trial in
October
DATE
forward is cutting
3000
CARDINAL
jobs
this week
DATE
to fund it shift towards electric vehicles the cuts will come Marily in the
US
GPE
with some positions Eliminated in both
Canada
GPE
and
India
GPE
the CEO
Jim Farley
PERSON
has repeatedly said the company has too many workers forward wants to spend
50 1 billion dollars
MONEY
to build
two 1 million
CARDINAL
electric vehicles a year by
2026
DATE
and
Zoom
ORG
shares filed in
US
GPE
late trade after it projected sales and profit for Estimate
annual
DATE
sales going to
about $four
MONEY
.
4 billion
CARDINAL
down from its production in
May
DATE
of
as much as four
CARDINAL
.
55 billion
CARDINAL
seems pandemic boom has called considerably as officers reopen and competition intensifies from
Microsof Teams
ORG
. Front and scene. Thanks so much. Leah, now coming up,
Chinese
NORP
banks are said to be employing unusual practices to inflate their low volumes. We'll look at what's driving that next this is
Booper
GPE
. When I started I had no idea it was gonna turn into this. Empire. I don't have any investors. All this is all money in. This is me going on hustling, bringing that money back, and just building, building it, building it. Yeah, I think about a person that was homeless at
one
CARDINAL
point. Didn't really have any money coming in. The fact that this person was relentless and just determined to succeed.
That was homeless at
one
CARDINAL
point
Did
ORG
n't really have any money coming in. The fact that this person was relentless and just determined to succeed and not let rock bottom define him as an individual. I can take things and put them together and take them apart and make them better and put them back together I respect the crowd so I don't wanna minimize and disrespect the value of each step of the craft and do my machine what should be done by hand Economics finance politics this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
surveillance early edition on
London
GPE
now in
China
GPE
some banks are inflating low numbers as they struggle to make government demands to pump more credit into the economy let's bring in our chief
Asia econom
NORP
Corresponded
Hong Kong
GPE
so and good morning to you exactly what is driving this. So the back story here
Francine
PERSON
is that in
China
GPE
's economy right now there's no shortage of credit no shortage of cheap loans and a government is encouraging the banks to get money out there into real economy not a problem is as the economy slows down the
Thai
NORP
for borrowing among households and businesses just isn't there. So what are colleagues picked up is that in the case of some banks at least what's going on is out there lending out some money, some companies, and then taking Money back in at the same rate in the form of a deposit so it's kind of a money go around and speak to the idea that he's banks who are being told to lend that money just can't find can't find those customers who are willing to borrow it because the appetite is spending the best isn't there against the Up of course of the big real estate slowdown and the ongoing restrictions from COVID oh. So it does it does speak to just have problematic
Chinese
NORP
finding it to get policy traction in the economy and ensure that they actually get some momentum as we go deeper into
the second half of this year
DATE
. So, I mean, this is not without risks. What are the main ones under Well, I think the problem continues to be francing at what point does the economy actually hit a bottom in
China
GPE
? The narrative had meant to be that
July
DATE
and
August
DATE
were supposed to see a turnaround, putting things on a better, even
Last week
DATE
for
the month of July
DATE
then of course we did
Central Bank
ORG
cutting interest rates for the
first
ORDINAL
time since January Bringing down mortgage lending rates but all of these steps speak to urgency among police makers but they don't speak to a turnaround in
China
GPE
's economy. I think that's what the big concerns right now from seeing that there is this liquidity shop that the The availability of credit, the issue is about why people aren't borrowing and that's why there's a call for or there's a sense that it will need to be deeper and bigger policy pivot. Maybe among on the real estate side or maybe on the call with oh side to really jump start and rev up activity amongst households and businesses in
China
GPE
in
the months ahead
DATE
. I mean could this just be caution and planning ahead so people are being very careful it could actually suggest a credit crunch. Well, look as old as a sense of caution in a slow economy
Francine
PERSON
. You are right.
China
GPE
has a very high household savings rate for example. So, it's not like there's AA liquidity or credit funds like that in
China
GPE
. But at Same time the problem is that policy is struggling to get traction and every time the government unveils any measure it's kind of met with either another reversal on the covidier side of things we've seen ongoing eh recent lockdowns and restrictions of course on
Hannah Island
LOC
which you know side kind of consumer confidence and of course in the real estate side despite Steps that they have taken and trying to bring in an interest rates and getting money into the system we continue to see a downward spot
Kind of consumer confidence and of course in the real estate side despite the steps that they have taken and chance of bringing an interest rates and getting money into the system we continue to see a downward spiral inactivity there so the point is None of the believers the government of polls so far have been enough to turn things around and that's what's worrying economists we saw those downgrades from
Golden Sox
ORG
and the more
last week
DATE
maybe sub three% growth now for
the year
DATE
that's a fairly shocking rate considering what people are looking for to start of the year so I think Vacation is not a we will have to see a step up for the aggressive step up and policy over
the coming months
DATE
if we are to see stabilization of growth that is expected ahead of the party
congress
ORG
later this year
DATE
but the point is we haven't seen it so far the economy hasn't stabilized and that's what's A lot of observers watching this. And thanks so much as always for the wisdom and say to our chief of
Asia
LOC
I can obviously respond in the current now coming up
Jack Dorsey
PERSON
. We'll bring you the latest on the
Twitter
PRODUCT
takeover battle. That's coming up next and this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Do any kind of business in this country. There's a pretty good chance that you're gonna see that business registered in
Delaware
GPE
. Why? Because that's where you do it. And our point was
Wyoming
GPE
can be that venue for blockchain enterprise for crypto This trend is coming. It's not going to stop. Is more of a small town that's growing into without Individualism the independence and the ability to really get things done for yourself and control your own destiny. You get that from a blockchain and you don't get that without it. So get to seven% in
the coming months
DATE
. Where are the job cuts to come from? The moment news breaks
24 hours
TIME
a day.
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Economics find those politics. This is
Edition of Francing
WORK_OF_ART
like we're here in
London
GPE
.
Peter
PERSON
and his defense against
Twitter
ORG
's lawsuit to make him complete his proposed
44 1 billion dollars
MONEY
buyout. Now, the
Twitter
PRODUCT
co-founder has long been a friend of the world's richest man. Well,
Dorsey
PERSON
stepped down as
Twitter
PRODUCT
chief executive,
last year
DATE
, and has since been an Get a booster of masks.
Co-founder has long been a friend of the world's richest man. Well,
Dorsey
PERSON
stepped down as
Twitter
PRODUCT
chief executive
last year
DATE
and has since been an energetic booster of
mosques
FAC
bid for the company. Now, he tweeted in
April
DATE
that mask was a singular solution I trust Take over not for more. We're joined by
Bloomberg
ORG
. Quick takes
Alex Webb
PERSON
.
Alex
PERSON
,
first
ORDINAL
of all, are you still friends if you get subpoenaed by the other one? It's hard to see how. It seem pretty clear wanted or wants Elon to acquire
Twitter
PRODUCT
. Elon doesn't want to acquire. Invention in the middle of that. Yeah but do we know that he still wanted to acquire it once
Elon
ORG
pulled out like what role has he played? Unfortunately
Darren
PERSON
is the elonch has far more on
Twitter
PRODUCT
than does
Jack Dorsey
PERSON
and
Jack Dorsey
PERSON
was
one
CARDINAL
of the co-founders so no we we don't know
Jack Dorsey's
PERSON
thinking I've been treated to see what becomes public from this subpoena but from the session because we some fascinating conversations on the
earth
LOC
. So do we have any insight into what
Elon
ORG
mask is trying to find out with the subpoena? Whole case is built around this idea that
Twitter
PERSON
overstated the number of accounts. There's also to say understated the number of accounts that were bought and presumably then he's trying to get data or admissions from
Jack Dorsey
PERSON
that they knew that it was more than that. But I think ultimately the key thing here is
Twitter
PRODUCT
when it declares how many accounts it has and what percentage of those accounts are bots it doesn't say the number of accounts total it says the monetizable
daily
DATE
active users so by definition a bot is not monetizable so therefore it's probably excluding a bunch of bots already from that calculation and then perhaps it thinks it might have not manage Sauce out five% of those. Really that relevant about why he's not buying it. Well, not necessarily no because if you look at the and Made this case very compellingly that
Twitter
PERSON
in their filings they say we think there's this number of bots we might be wrong if there's a better way of calculating it we'll be delighted to hear it therefore it isn't necessarily something that should be enough to sty me the deal or the Meaningful but you know Daily active users and monetizable
daily
DATE
active users are not part of
January
DATE
accepted accounting principles is something that
Twitter
PRODUCT
kind of is a metric they've invested on their own and therefore how they can be wrong is hard to tell yeah what a story I mean Unless you're very bored. I mean the life of billionaires is very different perhaps. Billionaires is very different. Alex web there with a very latest on
Elon Mask
PERSON
. Now,
Bloomberg
PERSON
's around. It's really audition continues in
the next hour
TIME
. Let me learn headlines in
New York
GPE
and
Edwards
ORG
is here in
London
GPE
. They'll have a full round of what to expect from
Jackson Hall
FAC
That
Jay Spall
PERSON
speech on
Friday
DATE
then we look at Euro dollar I know there's quite a lot of talk of course about equities but if you look at where the big whip sign We'll look at that. Hey When the price of anything goes up the consequences reach far beyond what you'd expect but perhaps most of all when it comes to food. In
2010
DATE
.
Of all when it comes to food In
2010
DATE
surging food prices help spark the Arab Spring lives were lost regimes fell and the consequences are still with us. Once again food prices are rising and fast Energy cost broken supply chains and surging demand were just some of the factors that have driven food prices to their
first
ORDINAL
record high since
the Arab Spring
EVENT
. And that's all before a war between
two
CARDINAL
of the world's biggest food producers.
Ukraine
GPE
is called the bread basket of
Europe
LOC
and taken with
Russia
GPE
the
two
CARDINAL
account for
about a quarter
CARDINAL
of global we trade they produce
more than half
CARDINAL
of the world's sunflower seeds and oil
nearly 20%
PERCENT
of the barley Now, throw in rising energy prices and processing transporting even refrigerating food gets more expensive. Plus, fertilizer production is extremely energy intensive. Less fertilizer means lower prop field and prices rise even more. Pandemic revealed how complicated in fragile global trade systems are. Global agriculture perhaps even more so. Unlike metals for example, the food goes bad. Encrops take
months
DATE
to grow near vulnerable to unpredictabilities like the weather. Food prices will be felt everywhere but the poorest countries in the world will be hit the hardest. And as all these factors compound, the real fear is that record high will lead to record high and ultimately to a global food crisis with vast consequence.
Bloomberg
PERSON
has enhanced search on the terminal to deliver what you need when you need it now And everyday
English
LANGUAGE
in the command line. Compare financials Find people analyze Marcus You can enter phrases Or ask questions What do you want to know
today
DATE
? Ask a question or visit search go to find answers now. In terms of what happens politically and what the economic fallout is. Right now
Central Bank's
ORG
everywhere will take anything they can get it's almost like a sort of a hawkish sandwich around this this mirage of of disinflation that we see starting to dominate the narrative Playing a game where the market Hey Facebook they're not always rational and they're just sometimes need to be given the alarm bars.
Matt Miller
PERSON
and
Kaylee Lines
PERSON
. It's
10 AM
TIME
in
London 5 AM
GPE
in
New York
GPE
and
5 PM
TIME
in
Hong Kong
GPE
our top stories
today
DATE
the federal reserve
ORG
overshadows the markets
European
NORP
stocks and
US
GPE
equities waiver over worries about more money Economic activity falls for
a second month in a row
DATE
record inflation is sapping demand and
Donald Trump
PERSON
reportedly has
more than 300
CARDINAL
classified documents at his
Florida
GPE
estate some of those documents are said to have come from the
CIA
ORG
and the national security agents Plenty of stories to dissect then Kaylee plenty to get the details on with our team shortly but in terms of weather markets trade
European
NORP
markets and
US
GPE
features suggesting a little bit more optimism after the the devastation of
yesterday
DATE
Asia
LOC
though that was a different It was indeed and of course,
the day
DATE
in the
US
GPE
and
Europe
LOC
is still young. So, a lot could change over
the coming hours
TIME
but in
Asia
LOC
, as you will later to, it was decisively risk off. We had stocks lower across
Japan
GPE
,
China
GPE
,
Hong Kong
GPE
, all together, taking the
MSI Asia Pacific
LOC
Index down for
Chinese
NORP
developers those property stocks which have gotten what should be some supportive news in
the last couple of days
DATE
around more loans to the sector Trying to prop it up also couldn't get a bit those were down
about seven
CARDINAL
.
What should be some supportive news in
the last couple of days
DATE
around more loans to the sector really trying to prop it up also couldn't get a bit those were down
about seven tenths Percent
PERCENT
when it comes to our
Bloomberg
PERSON
intelligence index of those stocks. At the same time as as you were saying Anna, of course, we are paying attention to the central bank story. The It's highest level and
about 2 months
DATE
finally in foreign exchange I would note you are seeing some Performance from the
Japanese
NORP
yen
today
DATE
stronger against the dollar by
nearly two
CARDINAL
chance of
one%
ORG
At 137 26 that is still very weak relative to history creedy but nonetheless it show There's a little bit of a bit for that haven't asked it out there. Well, speaking of a bit, I think you're really seeing that in the S and B 500 features as well but now, with that much conviction, take a look at this. The S and P features up
only two
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
. I mean, it's pretty natural to see a little bit of green on the screen after the math of sell off that we saw
yesterday
DATE
and of course,
Friday
DATE
as well and literally lead by those big cat names. So, to see that reversal, once Comes to no surprise at least when you're looking at it from technical level but once again no real conviction at least when it comes to early trade here when looking at features and I would say Conviction in the bond market either you're looking at
a 10 year
DATE
yield at about
three%
GPE
with no real change in in the move it also no real change in the dollar even though it is hovering around
Highs Anna
PERSON
and this is going to be really significant as we talk about the ripple effects that you start to see across us at
the end of the day
DATE
a bitcoin at that risk sentiment indicator well it's shining bright bright green up
one
CARDINAL
. Seven% this Anna. Pretty mixed picture
Chrissy
WORK_OF_ART
here for
European
NORP
stocks
European
NORP
equity markets kinda divided whether you look at the set to break down where we're kind of eating divided between the gainers and the losers or the geography here the Dax the footsy nearby doing okay a bit Negativity coming through in
Spain
GPE
and in the
UK
GPE
. More on that in just a moment. The
UK
GPE
market then down by
half a percent
PERCENT
. Yes higher energy prices. It's giving a boost to some of the energy names in
London
GPE
. Er but then we've got some negativity surrounding some of the other heavy weights in
London
GPE
. Such as the drug sex which is where. Er this is the Picture and this is lifting some of the oil companies here in in
Europe
LOC
. I one. Two%. The sound is there saying that they might have to come forward or Opec Plus might have to consider cutting production. So is the disconnect they describe between fundamentals and what oil prices are doing which is interesting in the context of all the calls we've had from Western leaders to increase oil production in
months
DATE
gone This is the euro down below one once again so below parody oh spot
9932
CARDINAL
PMI for the
Euro
FAC
zone economy it's not just
Germany
GPE
now it's
France
GPE
also it with a number for the composite which is below 50 which indicates contraction but we saw the euro actually bounce off earlier losses as a result of the
German
NORP
manufacturing number not being quite as bad as anticipated what was worse
Lizzy
PERSON
Bird An estimate which was much higher than that. So, we might expect to see some weakness in the pound, not so fairly resilient,
one 1769
CARDINAL
, after a lot of recent weakness, of course, and this is the reason we see the
Danish
NORP
market on depression. Five%. The heavyweight logistics shipping business. We're seeing sissy actually move this stock and the rest of the sector to a cell. They see an end to the exceptional shipping rates that we've seen in in
recent months
DATE
,
Kaylee
ORG
. Yeah, and of course shipping and the supply chain isn't focused as we see those strikes at
Felix Sto
PERSON
in the
UK
GPE
and so we'll continue to watch that story as well as a number of Retail earnings which will continue with
Macy
ORG
's reporting
second quarter
DATE
results before the market opens we'll also be paying attention To energy
German
NORP
chance or
Olive Schultz
ORG
is in
Canada
GPE
to discuss closer energy cooperation with Prime Minister
Justin Trudeau
PERSON
they will hold a news conference at
6:30 PM
TIME
:
New York
GPE
time plus we'll hear from
Minneapolis
GPE
fed
ORG
president
Alumni club
PERSON
and finally in politics
Florida
GPE
and
New York
GPE
will both be holding primaries ahead of the
November
DATE
Elections. Yeah,
Kaylee
PERSON
and of course, in the near term though, what we're watching is going to be all about the federal reserve stocks down near the lowest levels of
the month
DATE
as investors brace for hock From the
Fed
ORG
at
Jackson Hall
FAC
joining us now is
Cassenia
GPE
Galushko a
Bloomberg
PERSON
equities editor cuz send me a thank you is always for joining us what is the stock market reacting to Well it seems like this stock market is finally waking up to the risk of
the hockey federal reserve
ORG
so the rally that we've seen since
July
DATE
low
Acting too. Exactly. Well it seems like the stock market is finally waking up to the risk of
the hockey federal reserve
ORG
so the rally that we've seen since
July
DATE
lows which has taken
the SMP 500 near bull
DATE
market
Mask
PERSON
that actually rallied
more than 20%
PERCENT
from lows This rally is at risk because of the
Jerome
PERSON
powers upcoming speech at
Jackson Hall
FAC
where he's supposed to reiterate the hockeyness of
the Federal Reserve
ORG
as it fights as surging inflation Because any another factor of the markets that we need to focus on is the dollar dominance and we've certainly seen dollar strength as such a big thing. I read one of our pieces
today
DATE
on
the Bloom Terminal
ORG
at which which suggests that it is foolish to fight dollar dominance that must be a sentiment shared by many. Yes the dollar hedge is really one of the most popular trades right now ahead of
Darren Powell's
PERSON
speech
this coming Friday
DATE
I mean it is a haven instrument and it is one of the most popular ways of defending your portfolio at What's also not helping the sentiment is the fact that the euro is really weak at the moment and that's it happening because of the weaker economic data that we saw
earlier this morning
TIME
and also because of the looming energy crisis which is really weighing on the sentiment You are being acid. So the fact that some of its biggest peers are under pressure and the same goes for
Asian
NORP
currencies. Is really helping the strength in the dollar. Absolutely an expectations for
Fred
PERSON
policy have a huge hand in that
Bloomberg
PERSON
's
Cassanya Galuchko
PERSON
thank you so much and speaking of the
Fed
ORG
later this week
DATE
surveillance will be heading to
Wyoming
GPE
to
Jackson Hole
FAC
for the Annie Wilsonposium
Tom John
PERSON
and
Lisa
PERSON
will be kicking off that Coverage on
Thursday
DATE
. Let's turn back to the economic data out of
Europe
LOC
now. The latest
PMI
ORG
data for
August
DATE
provides
Comfort
EVENT
for the state of the
European
NORP
economy.
French
NORP
output is contracting for the
first
ORDINAL
time in
a year and a half
DATE
mirroring the trend seen in
Germany
GPE
. Joining us now to discuss is
Lizzy Birdin
PERSON
, our
EMEA
ORG
economics, and government Correspondent
Lizzy
PERSON
what exactly does this data show us Well
Kaylee
PERSON
let me walk you through it cos there is quite a lot.
France
GPE
has unexpectedly contracted
Germany
GPE
has continued its construction but we saw that coming because of it's reliance on
Russian
NORP
natural gas And then across the euros own more broadly you saw this construction driven by manufacturing but it's also in Like tourism because of the impact of inflation. So it heralds a difficult end to the year for the
European
NORP
economy. It our economists and economists surveyed by
Bloomberg
PERSON
do see a recession on the horizon. And it's a head For the ECB because of course it's continuing to hike interest rates despite this momentum coming out of the economy yeah a lot of people watching the energy story and asking just how weak the
Arizona
GPE
economy gets there through the
winter
DATE
there's a lot of people asking similar questions about the
UK
GPE
and that manufacturing
PMI
ORG
number
today
DATE
it's about certainly we'll give a lot of people something to think about yeah the
UK
GPE
's still in Terrory but manufacturing took a real blow really it's only a matter of time until the story catches up with the
UK
GPE
you've already got consumer confidence here at the level Assistant with recession. Er I should note though our economists are saying that a recession in the
UK
GPE
will be milder than previous ones because of healthy household balance sheets. Because of the fiscal stimulus we're We're expecting from whoever comes in to number
10
CARDINAL
but still while is trust is saying that recession isn't inevitable in the
UK
GPE
Bloomberg
GPE
economic says she can only question the blow a rec Is coming.
Lizzy
PERSON
Burden we thank you as always let's go to economics in the
UK
GPE
to politics right here in
the United States
GPE
the
US
GPE
government Recovered
more than 300
CARDINAL
classified documents from
Donald Trump
PERSON
since he left office according to
the New York Times
ORG
that includes papers returned in
January
DATE
a
second
ORDINAL
set given to
the Just Department
ORG
in
June
DATE
and the document sees by the
FBI
ORG
at Mar a Lago Joe
Matthew Bloomberg
PERSON
Washington
GPE
correspondent joins us now from
DC
GPE
for more
Joe
PERSON
walk us through what we know what's the latest The numbers are really the news here creedy as there's so much we still have yet to learn about what exactly
the Department of Justice
ORG
and
FBI
ORG
were looking for but this scale of this operation is giving us Sense of why they sought this search warrant to begin with and conducted the search the way they did
the New York Times
ORG
reporting
the National Archives
ORG
indeed found
more than 150
CARDINAL
classified documents in that
first
ORDINAL
batch of material that was From
Florida
GPE
in
January
DATE
including importantly here documents from the
CIA
ORG
and the
NSA
ORG
the sensitive nature of what they found and
Donald Trump
PERSON
Documents from the
CIA
ORG
and the
NSA
ORG
the sensitive nature of what they found and
Donald Trump's
PERSON
failure to comply with repeated request to hand over more documents is We should add that reports are surfacing now as well that investigators want access to more of the surveillance videos at more allowed to see exactly who was able to access the areas the document Stored in and and when and why meantime
Donald Trump
PERSON
has requested the appointment of a special master to review the documents that were seized it is unclear Pretty if that'll be approved. Okay really fascinating developments there
Joe
PERSON
let's pivot to the latest on the attempts to revive the
Iran
GPE
nuclear deal how much closer are we? It's a great question. We understand that some gaps remain but the report is of progress here. We heard from the state department
yesterday
DATE
spokesman ned price says that they're actually seeing some progress in terms of some of the deal breakers if if you will that
Iran
GPE
has pulled back from we should note that
Iran
GPE
delivered it's response to a framework drawn up by the
EU
ORG
last week
DATE
we're waiting now on
the United States
GPE
which says that it's still looking
Iran
GPE
's reply here
one
CARDINAL
thing that we know has been taken out of this and encouraging the
US
GPE
government is
Iran
GPE
drop this demand that the
US
GPE
removed the
Iranian
NORP
revolutionary guard from its list of of terror groups that's not gonna be on the table here so it looks like we could have some movement it's just unclear exactly what the sticking
Reply
PERSON
was reasonable so let's see what the administration here in
Washington
GPE
has to say Alright well we'll look forward to your coverage of it
Bloomberg
GPE
Joe Matthew
PERSON
in
Washington
GPE
thank you so much and of course you can listen to
Joe
PERSON
every weekday on his radio program sound on that's at
five
CARDINAL
Eastern
NORP
time on
Bloomberg Radio Now
ORG
let's get back to the markets and take a look at some stocks moving in pre-market trading here in the
US
GPE
and I have to begin with
Zoom
PERSON
. Company we are very very familiar with due to the pandemic but as From the pandemic and people go back into the office companies maybe wanna spend a little bit less on this kind of software due to the softening macro economic environment you have zoom cutting their revenue forecast and also missing expectations from analyst it actually Reported it's slowest quarter of revenue growth ever as well so all of that together taking the stock down
about 10%
PERCENT
in
early hours
TIME
it's a
Better
ORG
earning story though for
Palo Alzer Networks
ORG
. This is a big cyber security company. It beat on its quarter Cyber security world it is up
about eight and a half percent
CARDINAL
and Also wanted to check on
AMC
ORG
of course one of the meme stocks that has seen a lot of air come out of it over
the last several days
DATE
this is actually a stock down
50 Percent
PERCENT
over the last
four
CARDINAL
sessions of
42%
PERCENT
decline coming
yesterday
DATE
As it's preferred stock ape began trading but you're seeing a little bit of a rebound coming into the shares of it as well as some of the other meme trades out there this
Fabulous
PERSON
piece on meme stocks and where they had coming up on the program though
Kaylee Tom
PERSON
joins us head of investments at net group investments we'll continue to count down to
the Jackson Hall Symposium
ORG
of course and
Harvard
ORG
status as the richest school faces an oil which contender in
the University of Texas
ORG
our big take looks at how crude and And it's
Tuesday
DATE
so don't miss This is going back.
When I started I had no idea it was gonna turn into this. Empire I don't have any investor. All this is all money in. This is me going on hustling, bringing that money back, and just building, building it, building it. Yeah, I think about a person that was homeless at
one
CARDINAL
point. Didn't really have any money coming in. The fact that this person was relentless and just determined to succeed and not let rock bottom define him as an individual. I can take things and put them together and take them apart and make them better and put them back together I respect the crowd so I don't wanna minimize and disrespect the value of each step of the craft and do by machine what should be done by hand The difference between endless research and a winning strategy
Bloomberg Law
PERSON
combines the latest in
AI
GPE
powered tools and in-depth analysis to accelerate the research process. To grow your practice and make better use of your valuable time. The difference is Bloomberg Law Economic policy symposium Discuss the economic issues and solutions that keep the world's money moving This is
Bloomer Surveillance
ORG
early edition I'm pretty gupto with Kaylee lines in
New York
GPE
and
Anna Edwards
PERSON
in
London
GPE
Matt Miller
PERSON
is off
today
DATE
we are simultas on TV and radio we've been seeing this sentiment really take it on the chin across the board the stock market even treasuries starting to see a little bit of a sell off and come on he's of course taking it on the chin but it all kind of points to
one
CARDINAL
asset
Hovering
ORG
at record highs. I've already audience we are looking at a chart here of the
Bloomberg
PERSON
dollar index and the icy
US
GPE
dollar index. You can really see this massive
Acceleration
ORG
going into
2022
DATE
it's almost going I don't wanna say vertical but it seems to be in that direction The question though is the margin of the move how much of it do you For a lot of investors is actually outperforming some of your core investments. We're gonna She joins us now from
London
GPE
Lynn thank you is always for joining us let me put that question to you What do you do if your macro heads, your dollar trade, actually outperforms your stock trade, your bondre, your commodities trade. I'm sure that's the situation a lot of people are finding themselves in right now and I think you know the chart just really speaks to the fact that the dollar is the
one
CARDINAL
big trade that's working in markets right now and it's consistently been working and You know, it speaks to, you know, the state of the global economy where the
US
GPE
is relatively stronger. And your seeing weakness around
Russ
PERSON
the world. A euro weakness is also a trade that if you've been batting on that To continue and in some ways it makes a lot of
A lot of people see it coming weaker from here so you've got plenty of forecast I know no more
Morgan Stanley
ORG
are all sort of expecting the weakness in the
Euro
MONEY
to continue and in some It makes a lot of sense with the gas crisis continuing to get worse day by day and and the winter is still ahead of us. That is absolutely true and it felt like winter may have come for the equity market over
the last several days
DATE
when it seems that the pain is Is it a breather in the selling or have we actually seen just the end of the rally? Hmm I mean I think maybe
one
CARDINAL
way to look at it is the nervousness before the
Jackson Hall
FAC
speech and you know just the anticipation for what that's going to bring I think a lot of people Expecting a hawkish turn and more you know whatever it takes to get inflation under control and I think in that environment people are very hesitant to put on more risk okay yeah we'll wait for
Jackson Holden
PERSON
then thanks very much
Plenty
LOC
there on the stock sell off that we've seen and dollar strength. No one covers the world like
bloomberg
PERSON
. In
the coming months
DATE
. Do you see that coming? Battle between
Taiwan
GPE
and
China
GPE
. To come from. Resources The moment news breaks
24 hours
TIME
a day.
Bloomberg
PERSON
your global business authority. If you do any kind of business in this country, there's a pretty good chance that you're gonna see that business registered in
Delaware
GPE
. Why? Because that's where you do it And our point was
Wyoming
GPE
can beat that venue for blockchain enterprise for crypto Freedom we want that individuality and that's a common theme that brings together bipartisan support for this in
Wyoming
GPE
. We wanna make sure that people understand especially in
Wyoming
GPE
but as
United States
GPE
of the whole, this trend is coming. It's not going to stop. Cryptocurrency version of
Silicone Valley
FAC
. Individualism the independence and the ability to really get things done for yourself and control your own destiny. You get that from a blockchain and you don't get that without it. Are on
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Going into
September
DATE
that is
50
CARDINAL
basis points that's where I've been since the last meeting but I have an open mind about whether
75
DATE
is going to be necessary 5075 doesn't just depend on a data point even an important one like the CPI I like to say that we're data dependent we're not data point depend
Data dependent we're not data point dependent This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
surveillance early edition. In
New York
GPE
and
Anna Edwards
PERSON
in
London
GPE
,
Matt Miller
PERSON
is off
today
DATE
. Now, keeping you up to date with news from around the world. Here's After the products initial release out of
China
GPE
then that narrows the gap between the
two
CARDINAL
countries but it doesn't close
Supply
ORG
chain that the company's high standards for secrecy complicated it's efforts in
India
GPE
. Life expectancy in
new york
GPE
plummeted by
3 years
DATE
in
2020
DATE
the
CDC
ORG
says that was the biggest decline among all states in
the first year
DATE
of The pandemic. Residents of
New York
GPE
are expected to live to just under 78. The
Highest
ORG
life expectancy in the country. Overall the
US
GPE
life expectancy plunged by
one
CARDINAL
. 8 years in
2020
DATE
the biggest drop since
World War
EVENT
two
CARDINAL
. The
US
GPE
warns that
Russia
GPE
is about to launch a new round of attacks against
Ukraine
GPE
government facilities.
Ukraine
GPE
's preparing to celebrate its independence day on
Wednesday
DATE
. President
Vladimir Zalinski
PERSON
says that
Russia
GPE
quote may try to do something particularly nasty. And hedge funds are unleashing record bets the federal reserve will stick to his hockey script at
Jackson Holt
FAC
the group has collectively placed a big short across features for a key overnight rate that move In line with the feds benchmark. When he speaks at this
week
DATE
's symposium. So, clearly, all of us are waiting for that speech from chairman
pala around
PERSON
10 AM Eastern time
TIME
on
Friday
DATE
and yet we are seeing really decisive moves Repositioning in the market in anticipation of it. People aren't just waiting for what he has to say. And you know what? I think it's so fascinating here is that this is a hedge fund trade by the way. That is the exact opposite of the way the Interpreted the last comments that you really saw this is the
devilish
NORP
pivot that it seem like the stock market was rallying off but
the end of the day
DATE
it's actually Turn around that Anna this seems like people are saying well actually not only are they gonna be not devished they're going to be even more hawkish than expected given those looser financial conditions Yeah I mean
the Jackson Hall Symposium
ORG
developed a reputation over years gone by didn't it for being on opportunity for the feds of reset market expectations but
Fed
ORG
fix the market has the right expectation then maybe it doesn't create so much news but there is a lot of expectation then pretty deal point that we will see something walkish so I guess at
one
CARDINAL
way that things could surprise is if we don't quite get a level of walkishness we anticipated where would that leave markets and their long dollar positioning we'll put those questions it's on it can join us shortly head of investments Net group investments. Expecting pow to deliver as his key message. We'll have more on that shortly. This is going back.
Today
DATE
what is the biggest?
Today
DATE
what is the biggest challenges for general dynamics and what are the biggest opportunities? I think in in any business the challenges are solving complex problems that come to you You know the the problems that come to me and my senior leadership team for for resolving tend to be highly complex and nettlesome so you're ability to solve those complex problems or an important element I think of the value that we add. To the company. And then I think opportunities, you know, you always wanna make sure that you've gotta create enough mind, and open enough mind to be able to see around square corners. What am I missing? You know, the
Y
ORG
questions are really powerful. Why are we not doing this? Or why are we doing this? I ask those questions a lot In the answers. You can sometimes tease out some real opportunities, some hidden things, but thinking creatively about
Opportunities
PERSON
and problems. It's really important. And what about the industry generally? I think they have big challenges now as the defense budget probably comes down a bit. So I think that we are all responsible and and we have an obligation. To find the latest and best technologies That we can for our customers and deliver them the most cost effective manner we can and I think that that's a challenging and opportunity for all of the big defense companies Please explain by surveillance
earlier this year
DATE
is what you need to know. The federal reserve overshadows the markets.
European
NORP
Economic activity falls for
a second month in a row
DATE
recording is sapping demands and
Donald Trump
PERSON
reportedly had
more than 300
CARDINAL
classified documents at his
Florida
GPE
estate some of those documents are set to have come from the
CIA
ORG
The national security agency. Pretty good Right in
New York
GPE
of course
Matt Miller
PERSON
is off
today
DATE
and
Chris European
PERSON
equity markets kind of moving around a little bit this morning. A bit volatile but really waiting for developments later on
this week
DATE
. I completely wait and see mode and I would say that actually nothing is really changed in
the last 30 minutes
TIME
since we did our last market check. You are seeing features higher to the tune about one
10th
ORDINAL
of
one%
ORG
. At once again, this is pretty natural. I've just given the math That we saw
yesterday
DATE
and of course on
Friday
DATE
as well to see a little bit of a green on the screen but once again not a ton of conviction Future training like is it up
only 110
CARDINAL
to
one%
ORG
and that's not just a stock story you're singing on the bond markers well
301
CARDINAL
on
the 10 year
DATE
yield doesn't hover around that key three% level ahead of
Jackson Hole
FAC
and when do we actually see that perhaps psychological level not That rolement anymore. It's gonna be the question I have for a lot of our guests that coming up just shortly. Also, the Bloomer Dollar Index which really is taking it seems like the queue of the bond market. Still higher hovering near those
July
DATE
highs which by the way are record highs for
the Bloomer Dollar
ORG
in this but
today
DATE
, once again, no real conviction. That might explain why you're perhaps not Bitcoin of course up
about nine
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
still that
21 1000
CARDINAL
handle Yeah and we will be talking about that you and I later today on
Bloomberg
GPE
crypto creedy so we will definitely watch those moves and watch out that is translating into crypto related equities in pre-market trading as well because as you're seeing bitcoin getting a little bit of a lift these stocks are getting so much needed relief the likes of
Coinbase
PRODUCT
up about
two%
ORG
and micro strategy which is Bed bath and beyond is down
more than 60%
PERCENT
in
just the last 3 days
DATE
but it's rallying by
about five
CARDINAL
. Four%
this morning
TIME
.
Of life coming back into the meme stock trade bath and beyond is down
more than 60
CARDINAL
In just
the last 3 days
DATE
but it's rallying by
about five
CARDINAL
. Four% this morning so no it doesn't undo a lot of the losses we have seen in recent trading sessions but nonetheless a bit of a breather coming in and finally Wanted to point out to
Zoom
PERSON
this is a fundamental story given it reported earnings after the bell cutting it's reven
Forecast
PERSON
as businesses just aren't needing to get
Zoom
PERSON
as much considering a lot of people are back in the office that pandemic are a peak of zoom which we all got so used to maybe is a fading story and the stock is fading
this morning
TIME
as a result down
about 11%
PERCENT
before the
Belliana
ORG
. All those remote meetings
Kaylee
PERSON
that we learned to know and love in some cases and let's have a look at what
600
CARDINAL
pretty evenly divided between those sectors
Meaning
PERSON
those that are losing geographies that are gaining those that are losing not moving anywhere in a hurry it seems on these
European
NORP
markets today we have seen weakness in data coming through as a big theme and that applies to the euro and the pound we're watching both of these in response to
PMI
ORG
data the
European
NORP
PMI data told AA negative story contraction for the
Eurozone
ORG
economy at least according to this data set for the
second
ORDINAL
In a row it's not just
Germany
GPE
it's also
France
GPE
now in contraction but we do see the euro actually off earlier though it has been Threatening to go below
099
CARDINAL
. Little bit earlier on in
the European morning
LOC
but the Manufacturing pier my wasn't quite as bad as expected I'm clutching its drawers but that's at the edge of the euros for the pound one
1765
DATE
it has fallen quite a bit recently but now fairly steady at that one
1765
DATE
level despite the fact we saw a
46
CARDINAL
print for
the manufacturing PM
TIME
I added the
UK
GPE
a shortage of labor and an inability Because of the the disconnect that they see between what's going on in the economy concerns around Dominating there despite all of the calls we Production. Yeah, talking about that difference between the physical market and the future's market and how it seems that futures are really underestimating the tightness of capacity constraints that are out there. So, definitely a story to watch. We also, of course, are watching these equity markets and joining us now to discuss them as
Tom Kadock
PERSON
head of investments at
Ned
PERSON
group investments.
Tom Have
PERSON
seen some pretty market rally if it was
one
CARDINAL
over. I'm not sure but over per say but yes clearly what we're seeing at the moment is oscillating markets That are playing very much longer theme of you know how tight and how hawkish are
Central Bank
ORG
is gonna be and that's what we've been seeing that's what we saw
yesterday
DATE
fortunately from our perspective we're we're investors not traders so we can look through some of this market noise but it's Very much playing off this narrative of of And hawkishness. Of Central Banks. Okay and but it isn't just noise. We're seeing interest rate hikes for longer over if we're seeing bigger interest rate hikes than than had previously been anticipated so with that in mind what are you looking for at
Jackson Hall
FAC
we always expect a lot I I wonder if this is going to be one of those years that materially delivers or will we get AA sort of holding statement from the fed? Think it's gonna be a holding statement. I mean, it just doesn't make sense for for pow, for the
fed
ORG
, to be making a very, very strong statement in terms of horcaness, when realistically, it's gonna be driven largely by the inflation print that comes through. They've already made that indication. So, I think
the Jackson Holt
ORG
is gonna be a holding statement or at least keeping options open. Ahead of the next inflation re numbers which are gonna drive very much the expectations around base rates. We'll just talk a little bit about capital flows here. We talked about the fundamentals with
Jackson Hall
ORG
in terms of capital flows. I think it is a foregone conclusion For a lot of investors here that ultimately the pain that you're going to see in
Europe
LOC
is just going to get magnified come the winter season but I'm curious what Means for the
US
GPE
stock market doesn't that mean that if the rest of the world is struggling the the immediate investment is to buy
American
NORP
so why isn't that happening? I mean I I would broadly agree with you and and positioning has changed over
the last 6 months or so and
DATE
Is to buy
American
NORP
so why isn't that happening I mean I I would broadly agree with you and and positioning is change over
the last 6 months or so
DATE
on the back of this. We've got particularly particular concerns around
Europe
LOC
where I think some of those challenges that you've just said could you particularly acute and would favor the
US
GPE
market which is great a breath Absolutely has inflation been a major issue but we've started to see signs of that peaking Or at least some early signs of of peaking. We've shifted our positioning to more of a quality stands over value or indeed growth but particularly also focused more on on the
US
GPE
where we would we would expect to see out performance. Is the dollar the best hedge
Tom
PERSON
? I suppose the bitcoin. Absolutely. I I do think I I think it probably is. But we've seen a lot of strengths coming through from there as a
European
NORP
and
Bester
PERSON
. It's been a good place to be in in terms of in terms of dollar but yes I think you probably is. And real assets
Tom
PERSON
you might mention in your notes how do our conversation about the importance of real assets and how they're actually quite a conviction play for you including a commercial property I mean eh for for the novice you think about Rising interest rate environment and not sure what that does Or at least you you know that it creates headwinds. What was the what's the lure of these of real assets right now? Got multiple multiple attractions in here and it is looking for where to put your money and we've softened our position on equity significantly. We do have a preference for for real assets or assets that have a strong and reliable Compounding income generation capacity plus some inflation protection which is something that we've all been looking for for some time now but up and only rental reviews for us few mentioned commercial property if you if you're selective being able to still buy into that reopening trade has been very successful for us and I think Got some way to go. Infrastructure or indeed renewable energy. Where we can get some protection from that rising energy price where you've got a direct linkage to electricity prices. Feeding through into valuations. So we've been looking very much for a degree of stability. A lack of cycl In some of those positions as well as then that inflation protection coming through.
Tommy
PERSON
mentioned that the dollar is still the macro hedge to go to. You also said that you were overweight
US
GPE
stocks but I'm curious. Isn't that a contra Retrade. No no don't I don't believe so this is you know we're talking relative in terms of our positioning there so we've got the positions there we partially head some of that but broadly speaking it depends what your base comments he is so we're coming in to get
US
GPE
exposure we've also got some of that dollar hedge coming Actually in our in our
5100
CARDINAL
positions as well.
Tom
PERSON
thanks very much. Thanks for your time.
Tom Kaddock
PERSON
of
Ned Group
ORG
investments running is there with thoughts on the market. On
a fairly quiet day
DATE
in markets but gearing up a course for
Jackson Hall later on
FAC
this week
DATE
. It is After all coming up on the program though a lot to talk about when it comes to laid market stress we'll talk about
UK
GPE
strikes and the supply chain
Kate Jennings
PERSON
joins us logistics
UK
GPE
policy direct to the focus of
this week
DATE
of course is focused on the portal focusing on
the east coast
LOC
of
England
GPE
one impact is that shutdown happening on the economy this has been back What do you think of when you think of a battery?
What do you think of when you think of a battery For most it's what we used to power devices for both work and play and maybe even your car Over
the past few decades
DATE
, they've gotten way more powerful, long-lasting, and affordable. But all of this is just a prologue to what the next batteries are going to do. As we drive to a increasingly renewable power driven grid, we also need to be able to store energy and release it later to cover those periods of weather intermittencies that are driving this new grid that we're in. It's a
multi-trillion dollar
MONEY
opportunity It's imperative that we figure out the solution here How we store energy on a massive scale is in many ways the central challenge of the fight to stop climate change. Ask me all the time. On
Bloomberg Wealth
PERSON
, I'm gonna take you to meet the greatest investors in the world. The people that I would like to have managing my money. At the start of the internet revolution I kicked up a lot of controversy declaring that the internet had been under hyped. I say the same thing
today
DATE
about the climate revolution. Please a kind of issue for the logistics industry and fright industry and shipping sector. The
UK
GPE
as
Lizzy
PERSON
mentioned feeling so is the
UK
GPE
's largest container port if you do reroute freight away from its traditional
Travel
ORG
plans, etcetera. There would be a cost, a most cost will be cost on to Began an 8 day workout on
Sunday
DATE
halting the flow of goods through the
UK
GPE
's largest gateway for containers imports and exports joining us now is
Kate Jennings
PERSON
policies director at logistic
UK
GPE
.
Kate
PERSON
, help us understand what kind of damage these does to the
UK
GPE
economy and the limits to that damage actually because of the types of things that we move around the world and containers and and the other options that ship has then faced. Yeah so so first of all I suppose the most important thing is that we hope the port will continue negotiations with the unions cos the best thing that could happen is that they reach agreement. But for a container port like
Felix
PRODUCT
though the majority of goods are are not they've just in time they're not time sensitive so what I expect has happened already is that the port would have brought forward some deliveries they may have pushed back some deliveries and they can be roots to other ports so for example in the Hey you have
London
GPE
gateway you have
Southampton
NORP
you have Tilbury or you know relatively close in shipping terms to to
Felixtown
GPE
so there is that capacity to remove the good to buy another route Okay so there is at least that capacity to move things around how normal would you say the logistics in the
UK
GPE
are right now
Caitlin
PERSON
define normal We've been through
Brexit
PERSON
and the the the shocks that that created at least for the labor market and now we're dealing with with strike action at least at
Phoenix Store
ORG
and also perhaps in
Liverpool
GPE
. How normal is the logistic When I I suppose this is like the new normal isn't it? What what I would say is the logistic sector has come through
Brexit
PERSON
and COVID really well. You know Consumers haven't really missed anything. You know there were short term demand shocks. You know the beginning of coronavirus. But this but this shelves were quickly restocked. And I think we have a very dynamic, very effective logistic sector. That doesn't mean to say you know what? I suppose that
8 days
DATE
of strike. I think
Cope
PERSON
with that I don't think people will see the difference but obviously there will be costs you know because
That doesn't mean to say, you know, I suppose
8 days
DATE
of strike. I think we can cope with that. I don't think people will see the difference. But oversee there will be costs. You know, it'll be cost a whole years in my been expecting to pick things up at the port and now we'll have to pick Somewhere else or you know, so communication is key here. What we've been saying to the port is it's really important that they communicate with the whole areas that communicate with customers. So that we can minimize any impact As far as possible. Hey you mentioned that a lot of these ships could just be rerouted to other ports. Is there capacity at the other ports to handle that extra traffic? I mean I guess absolutely I would I would say there is for you know for for
8 days
DATE
worth of strikes you know it's you know it should be should be fine. You know obviously it will be different if the if the strikes were prolonged you know but I think we need to take these things step by step don't we and for the moment I think you know we think this is manageable. Okay, very quickly. What are we expecting here when it comes in terms of fiscal policy? For example, what can the government really do here to perhaps ease some of these Yeah I'm listening to important questions so as logistics
UK
GPE
we've asked the government to make a further reduction in fuel duty you may remember there was AA
five pence
MONEY
pure duty to reduction in
earlier this year
DATE
but that was quickly sort of swallowed up by inflation and what you see happening is Inflation is going up then the government's take on VAT has increasing so our argument is that actually if they continue to reduce fuel duty rather than getting that that benefit that will be better for cost of living it will be better for This costs it would help dampen inflation so you know we think a few duty cut would be helpful at this moment. I wonder okay if I could just ask you in response to some dates we've gone out
this morning
TIME
what you see in the manufacturing sector and clearly log
Operators
ORG
will have AA good sense of what's going on in that manufacturing space. Er we've got a manufacturing
PMI
ORG
reading of
just 46
DATE
which was which is contraction territory and really low versus what was Away from that specific data point. I wonder what your experience and logistics
UK
GPE
is telling you about that the the headwinds that the
UK
GPE
manufacturing sector faces right now. Yes I mean I'm obviously aware that that you know with
Brexit
PERSON
and and COVID have had impacts on manufacturing I can't say that at the moment that I know anymore than than you do but it but it's one to I think it's not just sort of you know make sure this supply chain's all supporting our manufacturing base
Kate
PERSON
obviously so much of the issues that play now come down to labor and Are a huge issue surrounding this strike in particular but as far as labor ability in the logistic sector in the
UK
GPE
are there enough people in the That's a great question so and it just takes okay we're actually leading a campaign called
Generation Logistics
LOC
you know look at look out for it if you haven't heard of it so what we're seeking to do is promote the logistics sector as a great place to work I think a lot of people you know are not aware of the the range and diversity
Opportunities
PERSON
available on the fact that in particular you know we did a report with
Amazon
ORG
recently which highlighted that you can join the logistics relatively low skills but then there are opportunities to build your career and get Management positions. So, it's a great sector to work in and you know, we're looking to promote that and and you know, attract people really to the sector.
Kate
PERSON
thanks so much
Kate Jennings
PERSON
policies are right to at logistics
UK
GPE
with her perspective on some of the disruptions that we're seeing to logistics in the
UK
GPE
right now later
Jackson Hall
FAC
they'll be taking the will they'll be listening for the
fed
ORG
and what the
fed
ORG
has to say what during pals specifically has to say about the state of the
US
GPE
economy the level of
Tom John
PERSON
and
Lisa kick off special
PERSON
coverage on
Thursday
DATE
this is bling bag.
When you think space you probably think One space agency that travels under the radar is
Easter
ORG
. Which is surprising considering what
European
NORP
space agency has achieved and how visolate it is to the global space industry. Please collaborate with pretty much everybody who is involved in space expiration. The Issa wants to be a leading force in furthering humanity's mission into space. In a different way. The place where we are going to the to do that is on the moon. And
Lisa
PERSON
help humanity take its next giant
leap Markets
ORG
are preparing to close but the day is not over yet. Yes. Upgra You need top analyst to bring you exclusive global insight into cross asset markets. Bitcoin ain't buying along
today
DATE
is gonna be short term. Close
weekdays
DATE
on
Bloomberg
PERSON
. What is your base case for
Italy
GPE
in terms of what happens I don't think it needs to be part of the cure what we we've experienced if we let in place and build up over time like it's in the 70s it was
7 years
DATE
of we nip it in the bud which I still think we can then you don't have to have these negative effects that people worried about.
John Taylor
PERSON
, professor of economics at
Stamford University
ORG
of course speaking with
Bloomberg
PERSON
yesterday
DATE
about how he doesn't see recession as needing to be part of the cure.
Tom King
PERSON
, co-anchor of Bloom
Tom
PERSON
we saw we saw him at reference to
Taylor Roll
PERSON
I do like it when economics professional On a sort of name drop the rules they device
decades ago
DATE
No doubt in focus for you what else is in focus
Dresses
LOC
up at a raisin is a raisin he walks in literally as a raisin to show agriculturally economics in
Northern California
LOC
something That's an image that sticks. That's a different.
Different day
DATE
. I went back
30 years
DATE
. The word is never. We've never seen this. This is the fabulous
Bloomberg
PERSON
financial conditions index White for
America
GPE
in light blue for
Europe
LOC
and they have never ever diverged Anna like we see now there they are in tandem through the pandemic in the
European
NORP
Bloomberg financial condition Index is back to where it was at the worst of the pandemic the
US
GPE
recovers nicely and is accommodated the divide is extraordinary.
Tom
PERSON
I'm sure it's something you're gonna ask your guests on your show later today who do you have coming up well we've got lined up
Extraordinary
Tom
PERSON
I'm sure it's something you're gonna ask your guests on your show later today who do you have coming up well we got lined up mostly about the markets will join from
Goldman Sax
ORG
we'll Economic briefing from him obviously pre
Jackson Hall
ORG
briefing we're scheduling our exit tomorrow we're not taking a golf stream very important we are climate sensitive we're looking at our footprint
Lisa
PERSON
demanded that but we've got some other people as well we will Ukraine Address a suburbs of
Moscow
GPE
with
Tina Fordham
PERSON
of
Fordham Global Insight
ORG
. Alright looking forward to it
Tom Keen
PERSON
watching even beyond that I will be watching the
Fed
ORG
's
Neil Cashcarri
PERSON
speaking
tonight
TIME
at
7 PM
TIME
he of course is the
Minneapolis
GPE
fed
ORG
president
Minnesota
GPE
alumni club he has become firmly in the hawkish camp he has said recently that he would like to see Funds rate at
four
CARDINAL
. Four% in
2023
DATE
. So, what kind of tone is he going to strike as we beat the drum toward Speech at
Jackson Hole
FAC
on
Friday
DATE
is this a thread that is going to be continually forceful in pushing back Against market expectations that have turned more in the devast Argument is going to be a very tight labor market but guess what else is extremely tight? The housing market which brings them the data that we're gonna get about 10
AM Eastern New York
LOC
time really crucial. We're getting some New home sales as well as
the Richmond Fed
ORG
manufacturing index also coming out plus some of that
PMI
ORG
data but really it's those new home sales that I have my Anna. Focus in terms of the politics and and how that weighs in on markets and economic expectations actually into
the winter
DATE
. I'll be focused on chancellor
Olaf Schultz
PERSON
who's making a visit to
Canada
GPE
. It's gonna be the second day of his visit. Here we see images of
the first day
DATE
. There's the press conference they gave on
Monday
DATE
. There'll be another press conference taking place
today
DATE
as we said a little bit early on in the Can
Canada
GPE
help with
Europe
LOC
's gas issues? That's the big question going into this visitor I suppose. And and maybe the answer is sadly not really in the short Maybe more in the long term there's been talk of regulatory barriers being overcome to increase exports of
LNG
ORG
from
Canada
GPE
but remember a lot of Would need apparently to be in the east and so there were challenges that remain in that regard
today
DATE
their attention actually Economic debate as we head into the winter. That is it for the early edition.
Surveillance
ORG
is ahead.
Tom
PERSON
,
John
PERSON
, and
Lisa
PERSON
will be with you to take you through some great Stations coming up here on
Bloomberg TV
ORG
. So if you look back on your career what would you say is the best investment advice you've ever received? That I never received. But that I've lived my whole life around is surround yourself with really good people I thought about it just today like I do many times you know What makes a great investor A great investment firm is comprised to people who are optimist.
Hey, I do many times. You know, Makes a great investor A great investment firm is comprised of people who are optimist. And pessimist. And realist. Because in the intersection of the debates that go That wide range of personalities is where you find truth. It's part of the reason I'm so focused and freedom of expression. I see it my own four walls. The the robust and fullsome debates around how we commit our capital. What defines a good idea? What businesses to build or pursue? That's what drives the success it's suited out And I I've been very fortunate in life to have always had a group of friends who really pushed me who make me better And here I get to work with
three and a half
DATE
1000 colleagues who in their ways make me better each and every day and collectively As a team We've had the opportunity to have an incredibly impact on the financial landscape around the world. The markets are to any commentary about trade. We did see some pressure on the
UN
ORG
. We did see some pressure on the future. That is now being reverse. Inflation premium. To react. Central banks everywhere will take anything they can get Good morning good morning Ugly. John's Oh what I would suggest John is after the difficulties
yesterday
DATE
downtown
600
CARDINAL
points what we see this morning in foreign exchange John can you imagine his speech if we get
Monday
DATE
Wednesday, Thursday
DATE
of this kind of market action. Certainly timed up over
the last couple of days
DATE
and we're seeing real weakness abroad. Not just in
Europe
LOC
and
China
GPE
too. Well, here's the quote off the back of the
European
NORP
data. The data points to when economy in contraction during
the third quarter
DATE
.
Tom
PERSON
, that's what we're all looking for in the
Europe
LOC
I would agree and I like the idea that you devolve down to what is economic growth doing because that
Strategist
NORP
in all that it's trying to get a handle on the interdependencies of these global economies what is Governor
Bailey
PERSON
say to And
Paul
PERSON
at
Jackson Hall
FAC
. That's the view from
Bloomberg Economics
ORG
the
UK
GPE
is already in stagnation and the recession is inevitable the question really is just
Deep
PERSON
hiking into pain and really i gotta reiterate what
Tom
PERSON
was saying the issue is how much can the
US
GPE
continue to diverge how far can it go as you do see all of this pain trickling out in
European
NORP
data
2 days
DATE
down
three
CARDINAL
. Four% over
the last 2 days
DATE
on the
SNP
ORG
I mean, honestly, that's my takeaway. The Bears are saying this is clearly a bear market The bulls are saying we've already seen the bottom this is a time to pick up things on the margins and you have not seen really a shift in that you camps
Clearly cleaning things up. Don't you? Is that us for going on vacation? Bounce back a little bit after
2 days
DATE
of ugly losses yield tired by not even a basis point through
three%
GPE
in
the last 24 hours
TIME
of a
10 year
DATE
three.
0165%
PERCENT
and maybe
Lisa
PERSON
we need to get Breaking through parity. Below parody for the
first
ORDINAL
time going back to 2002 it is solidly there we have reached that level and we are not going back and that To be the direction of travel. Okay, so talking about the
European
NORP
PMIs, we do get a series of S and P PMIs from
the United States
GPE
at
9:45 AM
TIME
: at
10
CARDINAL
I've actually more interested in the new home sales because in
the United States
GPE
I'm less interested in the real time deterioration in manufacturing and services than I am and how much the housing market is rolling over how horrific is it or not as we see the volume is really ticked down we have seen an incredible tick down in the Number of transactions at what point is that translate into lower costs, lower confidence, the whole sentiment or read through of lower prices of mainstays in investment portfolios. At
1 PM
TIME
, we get the
US
GPE
selling
44 1 billion dollars
MONEY
of to your notes. This to me is actually a particularly interesting According to some measures ahead of the expected hockey speech on
Friday
DATE
from
Fed Church
ORG
J. Paula
PERSON
today
DATE
. This is the And earning season the vast majority of
US
GPE
companies have reported. However, we get the latest read on the consumer
Macy
ORG
's is reporting any minute now. The sporting goods is at some point this morning as well as north from after
Cohesive
FAC
message about how much momentum consumers can really have at a time of such high inflation.
Alisa
PERSON
, thank It's ridiculous right?
Lisa
PERSON
, thank you. Get a grip it's not that bad just buy it and it turned out to be okay and find it was the right thing to do
Steve Orth
PERSON
is not saying that anymore the chief investment officer Equities have federated hermies. Join us right now.
Steve
PERSON
, you're not saying that anymore. Walk me through it. Why you're so defensive this time around? I just it's different this time John I mean I was thinking about when you're talking about how there could be hiking into you know a recession in the
UK
GPE
while they're they what's causing the Is the inflation in the
UK
GPE
? And you know the banks are really in a tough spot here where you've got a very high and I think stubborn inflation problem driven by okay You know maybe a temporary commodity price heights etcetera that's part of the problem but underneath it all is shortages and housing shortages and labor globally And the pressure there on the cornflation numbers we think it's gonna be around for a while so this idea that You know, we're gonna get back to the kinda deflationary period before COVID that we experienced for
2030 years
DATE
. And was, you know, a big driver of markets because of low volumes. Think that's probably behind us and the markets need to adjust Do a you know longer term you know something north to three% inflation environment a
10 year
DATE
yield in the
three
CARDINAL
to four% range Evaluations after this last rally are just Especially on the gross side of the equation which is where we cut again
yesterday
DATE
. Frankly, these dogs are just overpriced and You know go ahead. Regime how do you presume that your top
40
CARDINAL
Only by side at fun how a corporation's adapt to this higher inflation regime how do you presume that your top
40
CARDINAL
holdings will adapt and adjust out
the next 3 to 5 years
DATE
? Well time you know one thing that we're overweight is dividend being stocks and you know those companies have prestable businesses They've got pricing power they can gradually increase pricing on on their portfolio they should have nominal sales that will go up GDP The stocks are not crazily priced. They're thrown off dividends of
three
CARDINAL
to four%. So, you know, getting a return in cash of
three
CARDINAL
to four%. We think it's not bad with a little bit of appreciation. We've been telling our clients You know,
the days
DATE
of
15, 20%
PERCENT
per year are behind us now. We gotta be thinking about mid single digit returns on stocks
next 3 years
DATE
. I would point out the cash isn't Horrible as it used to be to
Tom
PERSON
when you were you know doing your
three
CARDINAL
X Leveraged money market fund. I mean, you know, hey, Idea for me just so you know. I'm not sure how much money they owe you for that. No, couple of percent right now. Overweight value stocks and were underway gross stocks Where we think evaluation's gonna compress. So, it does look, it is defensive. It's probably not as As ridiculously defense that you think if you look at you're expecting AA five to seven Return over
the next 3 years
DATE
, you know, per year. Put this in a cold relief. It sounds like you're incredibly embarrassed when you say we're now underway equities for the
first
ORDINAL
time and
nearly a decade
DATE
. What is the nature of the downturn just quickly in terms of what you're expecting versus just A real location based on the
first
ORDINAL
time that we're getting real yield in a very long time. You know there's possibilities of that but Looking at a rocky landing we think we're gonna be bouncing around real GDP growth You know plus or mine is oh one% for
the next six quarters
DATE
we think inflation's gonna stay pretty high come off you know the the We are now but still pretty high in the
fed
ORG
is is not going to pivot because the playbook they're following is the
1970
DATE
's where are the
fed
ORG
made the mistake of pivoting too soon and that led to a resurgence of inflation that cause vocal have to take the economy into a double dip procession as everybody knows in the late seven
Jackson Hall
ORG
on
Friday
DATE
I think the rally has just gotten a little bit ahead of itself right A federated Hermes with a very very different perspective relative to what we've heard from him
Tom
PERSON
for
the last decade
DATE
or so We'll catch up with you on Get together where we're here from chairman
Powell
PERSON
this Friday
DATE
. Features up to tenths of
one%
ORG
. That's a small bounce relative to the move downwards we've seen over
the previous 2 days
DATE
. It'd say cloudy
New York
GPE
What did you do? Good
morning
TIME
to you. Thank you. Thank you. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Leaving you up today with news from around the world with the
first
ORDINAL
word I'm wishing Maybe coming to pass economic activity in the euro zone fell for
a second month August
DATE
drop was driven by manufacturing still the post lockdown rebound in services like tourism almost ground to a halt can seem as a bit hit by big jumps in energy and food costs And those gasoline prices in the
US
GPE
have now fallen for
70 days
DATE
in a row that is the most in
more than seven Years
DATE
according to the auto club triple A pump prices are averaging $
389
MONEY
. A
gallon
CARDINAL
after reaching a record high
around $five
MONEY
in
mid June
DATE
. And the
US
GPE
warns that
Russia
GPE
is about to launch
Around $
five
MONEY
in
mid June
DATE
And the
US
GPE
warns that
Russia
GPE
is about to launch a new round of attacks against
Ukrainian
NORP
government facilities.
Ukraine
GPE
's preparing to celebrate its It's day on
Wednesday
DATE
president for lot of
Miselenski
PERSON
says that
Russia
GPE
quote me trying to do something particularly nasty. Government reportedly as recovered
more than 300
CARDINAL
classified documents from
Donald Trump
PERSON
since he left office according to
the New York Times
ORG
that includes papers returned in
January
DATE
a
second
ORDINAL
set given to
the Justice Department
ORG
in
June
DATE
and the document seized by the
FBI
ORG
at
Mara Largo
PERSON
the time says some of the documents came from the
CIA
ORG
and National security agency. Enterprise business platform will take longer than usual zoom reported the lowest sales gain in its history plus its revenue projection fell short of estimates go on the news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and on
Bloombow
PERSON
quick take powered by
more than 2700
CARDINAL
journalists and analysts in
more than 120
CARDINAL
countries somewhere to get up to this has been back What do formula
one
CARDINAL
cars and your local supermarket have in common? Well, strange as it sounds, they might both be using the same technology, a lot of innovation, has trickled down from the world of high-tech engines, and it hasn't just found a new life in road cars. Engineers from
Williams
PERSON
are using their knowledge from
nine
CARDINAL
constructors championships working with company aeropoil to help reduce the energy consumption of supermarkets. The device they're building is based on the design of an
F one
PRODUCT
cars rear It attaches to fridges to keep more cool air in the unit they estimate they can reduce supermarket energy consumption by
25%
PERCENT
one innovation from
F one
PRODUCT
is also helping hybrids reduce their carbon footprint That's curse or the kinetic energy recovery system in common parliaments is known as regenerative breaking and works by storing energy of the car discelerating in the battery for late for later use Recovery system looking to harness the heat produce from breaking and the engine exhaust that could allow cars to generate the same power using
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ORG
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This week
DATE
. Economic policy symposium Discuss the economic issues and solutions that keep the world's money moving We are working hard to become independent of this The chance of a shelves has got a lot of problems I imagine being in
Canada
GPE
is not one of them right now wants to get away TK
Germany
GPE
and
Europe
LOC
just let it go. Alright. To
Canada
GPE
Yes. My birthday. I'm not saying anything else. Please send I love those markets. Look at that. 100 up by
014%
PERCENT
. Illton changed just north of three%
three
CARDINAL
.
0183%
PERCENT
Lisa got things to say you could So good. TK how are you? Domestic. When we get in the same room We're still doing out here I I don't know. Are we on the same? I don't think we're on the same plane. I was gonna take the golf stream and they wouldn't let me The carbon footprint.
One
CARDINAL
different plants. I think all of us have flying different plants. Oh
Fridge
PERSON
the device I've I'm threatening to read Elizabeth economy in
China
GPE
on the plane. Thank you. We can do that That billing canal fee as you walk by. It's been a lot of walking done in the democratic party and
today
DATE
there is an election in
New York
GPE
. Granite, it's about
New York
GPE
. It's not about the rest of the nation But nevertheless
Joe Matthew
PERSON
knows the distance across central parks as much about the democratic party
Joe
PERSON
it's
Nadler
PERSON
and
Maloney
PERSON
they've been doing this forever everybody's focused on this race what is it symbolize to mr
Schumer
PERSON
in the future of the Democra Well for
Schumer
PERSON
it looks like a win he endorsed
Jerry Nadler
PERSON
which is gone a long way to help his standing here when you look at the numbers but this is look this is why politics can be a very dirty business these
two
CARDINAL
were allies they were elected together in
1992
DATE
they were part of the senior leadership in
the Democratic Leadhouse
ORG
this would be like
Tom Co
PERSON
hosted surveillance and things get ugly when you start to compete I mean we don't Driving
Friday
DATE
okay
Joe Joe
PERSON
what is that maybe true okay what's the difference between
Natalie
PERSON
and
Maloney
GPE
?
Hey Facebook describing
Friday
DATE
okay
Joe Joe
PERSON
what is the baby true? Fruits between
Natalie
PERSON
and
Maloney
PERSON
Well a man and a woman if you ask her if you
Pioneer
ORG
the
first
ORDINAL
woman to share the powerful oversight committee and his really kind of got her arms around reproductive rights as an issue for
New Yorkers
NORP
here Jerry Nather they'll say hey listen fine if you if you get rid of me here Not gonna have a
Jewish
NORP
member of the delegation in an incredibly important part of the country here
New York Times
ORG
endorsed him
Chuck Schumer
PERSON
endorsed him i think we see where this is gonna go here but to see
two
CARDINAL
powerful incumbents like this who have been allies for so long for
30 years
DATE
is quite remark Why why is this happening
Joe
PERSON
? It's all about redistricting look that you know when the maps change sometimes powerful neighbors can find themselves in the same district buying for the for in some cases similar patches of voters here this is gonna look a little bit For both candidates though once the the new district is in place Cuz I know down in
Florida
GPE
Rhonda Santis
PERSON
is running uncontestated. The
Republican
NORP
primary there and the contest is really among
Democrats
NORP
. How much is this a theme? With
Democrats
NORP
having contested primaries and
Republican
NORP
incumbents having much more power heading into this
November 8
DATE
election? It's been a bit of a theme. Are we talked about this? Of course, you know, repeatedly over the course of the the primary campaign.
Democrats
NORP
have tried to prevent that from happening in a lot of cases and and in some cases, it's just in it's inevitable Redraw map. The
Democrats
NORP
aren't losing as much as people thought you have even The
senate
ORG
even if they have to give up the house to
Republicans
NORP
how based in truth is this based in the polls based on the activity in some of these primaries Generic ballot polls they play well for
democrats
NORP
right now but of course that doesn't jive with President
Biden
PERSON
's approval ratings and it doesn'
Democrats
NORP
here so it's hard to say but when you hear
Mitch McCon Speaking
ORG
to it to the extent that he didn't referring to candidate quality he's talking about
the Hershell Walkers the JD Vance
LAW
is the Doctor
Raza
PERSON
's who he doesn't feel a great amount of confidence in their
Donald Trump
PERSON
endorsed products and not the candidates that makes
McConnell
PERSON
would have chosen that doesn't When they've all been elected it's just it's too difficult to tell. Off to after
Labor Day
DATE
,
September
DATE
is the beginning of new. Should we be surprised to see
Biden
PERSON
administration changes in
September
DATE
?
September
DATE
might be a little early that might really follow the midterms you know
November
DATE
is for
November
DATE
too much later obviously but yeah it's just to keep from from muddying the waters here and and getting in the way of the narrative I think what the president is planning though is a national tour whether they put them on a train or send them on air force one you're gonna be seeing him in a lot of cases
Washington
GPE
but they are busy talking about these plans that they're making for fall.
One
CARDINAL
M track
Joe
PERSON
to stay in
Delaware
GPE
. And it depends who you ask for some look being on stage with the commander in chief is a big deal but you are gonna see kind of a case by case situation. It depends on how well
Biden
PERSON
played in that given districts that you're talking about in
20
CARDINAL
and exactly what the
Infrastructure
ORG
I won't say build back better some of the other legislative accomplishments that the president has made Yes he'll be welcome
John Federman
PERSON
and
Pennsylvania
GPE
for instance he welcomes the president on stage anytime so you're gonna see different versions of that across the country and that's not a
Joe Biden
PERSON
phenomenon realizing his approval ratings are deep in trouble here Based on the historical trends really don't always.
Realizing his approval ratings are deep in trouble here that happens in midterms where commanders and chief based on the historical trends really don't always help people who are running for
congress
ORG
Jack Matthew
PERSON
.
Bloomberg Radio
ORG
.
PM Eastern Time
TIME
. TK what are we looking at now?
Democrats
NORP
keep the
senate
ORG
, they lose the house. Yeah, that's sort of the news. It's very fluid right now. It helps to have someone like
Joe Matthews
PERSON
just steeped in the stuff. Back and forth. We catch it with
Mark Howard
PERSON
. Just a moment. From
New York
GPE
. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. When I started I had no idea it was gonna turn into this. Empire I don't have any investor. All this is all money in. This is me going on hustling, bringing that money back, and just building, building it, building it. Yeah, I think about a person that was homeless at
one
CARDINAL
point. Didn't really have any money coming in. The fact that this person was relentless and just determined to succeed and not let rock bottom define him as an individual. I can take things and put them together and take them apart and make them better and put them back together I respect the crowd so I don't wanna minimize and disrespect the value of each step of the craft and do by machine what should be done by hand In
the coming months
DATE
. Not just cut and run. The moment news breaks
24 hours
TIME
a day.
Bloomberg
PERSON
.
This morning
TIME
is struggling to hold we fade futures now unchanged are the SMP 500 on the Nasdaq very slightly negative on the
SMP
ORG
over
the last 2 days
DATE
the biggest
2 day
DATE
drop since
the middle of June
DATE
down
about three
CARDINAL
. Four% on the SMP 500 The equity pitcher. Here's the bond market story.
The first day of August
DATE
at the close your
2 year
DATE
was at
287
CARDINAL
. Look at it now.
333
CARDINAL
. You look up again by couple of basis points. The highs of the year introdown are
2 year
DATE
from 45 TK. So not a
one 1 million
QUANTITY
mi away and the direction of travel over
the last few weeks
DATE
you've seen it. You'll start at the front end. Is really, really important. Any good moving average and you don't wanna hang on moving averages but the moving average that I use of a
two-year
DATE
yield is to monstrobly higher yield than it was in
June
DATE
. It's the sustain nature of the
two-year
DATE
move now that's important. Start to break out back to those
June
DATE
highs again not quite there yet but it's had And as that happens
Tom
PERSON
the dollar strength starts to boil. Yeah. And we've seen that in
the last couple of days
DATE
haven't we? Let's take a picture And
Sterling
PERSON
that's for Brammo just sort of emphasizing which about bad things happening. Break a parity in
the last 24 hours
TIME
capable of breaking
118
CARDINAL
at
one 1754
DATE
for the
UK
GPE
and a euro sign lease the data terrible manufacturing both in the
UK
GPE
and
Europe
LOC
in the
40s
DATE
and for people familiar with the The difference
between 50
CARDINAL
plus and below is expansion and contraction and that is solidly in contraction. And we were kind of expecting that kind of weakness from
Europe
LOC
with the confirmation of it in the biggest economies in
Germany
GPE
and
France
GPE
has really gotten a lot of people concerned and I will Say I should change my
Twitter
PRODUCT
profile to speaking emphatically about bad things that could happen It sucks. Alright. CK. On the screen is smart. They're very importantly sterling down to
one
CARDINAL
1718 I believe. We didn't see a
116
CARDINAL
virtually unthinkable
Weeks ago
DATE
. With a very important research note always on fixed income right now.
Mark
PERSON
, you go to where I am. You and I are in the same camp. It's not about Picking the moment is media does you look for a message of a sustained strategy by the
Fed
ORG
what will be sustained about chairman
Powell
PERSON
's speech on
Friday
DATE
? I think what's gonna be sustained time. Good
morning
TIME
. Thank you for having me. I think what's gonna be sustained is the focus on trying to squeeze out inflation to the extent that Scramble to get caught up which caused the markets to you know to overcorrect on the downside through
mid June
DATE
and then we had a little bit of good news a little bit of doveishness and I think he's gonna set the record straight and say, you know, don't expect a
Dovish
NORP
pivot anytime soon and that's why we've seen the front end, your work measure, adjust over
the last several days
DATE
. There there's not gonna be anything anytime soon in our view. Optimist do you share the gloom that's floating around right now? Well I don't know that it's gloom time I your earlier guest mister
Opt
PERSON
I think he had had the right tone which is that inflation is a real challenge not just in the
US
GPE
where we've seen it you know settle a little bit but and you guys mentioned
yesterday
DATE
what's happening
UK
GPE
. In many of the emerging markets there's a there's a real challenge and
Central Bank's
ORG
globally are gonna be squeezing against that and that's gonna way on growth and ultimately with the lag defect that's gonna kick in to Corporate profitability and I think that's it's prudent to to not expect the market to continue to rebound. I think we're gonna we're gonna settle in here. Our target for the S and P for example is
4400
CARDINAL
by
the end of the year
DATE
. So we think it's appropriate for the market to have leveled off recently. Similar to
Brown
PERSON
had the courage to buy some of that weakness in
the middle of June
DATE
and you and I have talked offline about that. You've always gotta think about the store.
Appropriate for the market to have leveled off recently.
Middle of June
DATE
and you and I have talked offline about that. You've always gotta think about the story, okay? Might not sound good, then think about the price of the story. Can you talk to me about the price of the story in
Europe
LOC
now? We're all familiar with the story. It's not great, is it? Talk to me about the price of the story. How well priced are we for that pretty terrible We're expecting at the back end of this year Yeah I thank you for the kind words you write
Sam
PERSON
and team definitely had a courageous call and and rightfully I think have recently started to moderate that call to be a little more balanced in the outlook so you know the
European
NORP
outlook is as you rightly highlighted is is quite challenging not just But also in the
UK
GPE
and with what's happening recently just
the last several days
DATE
around power and energy prices there's genuine reason to be concerned of real stagulationary pressures as
the year
DATE
plays out we do believe
the Central Bank
ORG
in both Be in the
UK
GPE
will hike in
September
DATE
And you know, that's up, that's a very challenging, near-term mix for
Wiscassets
ORG
. But ultimately, you know, we we don't see a major correction in
European
NORP
asset prices. But we do see, you know, AA choppy road ahead. Mark, you talk about hiking into weak And this has been a theme throughout
2022
DATE
what's the trigger point for central bankers to stop hiking and this has been what people have been really debating as to the pivot that some people said never happened and how J
Powell
PERSON
might reiterate a hawkish message on
Friday
DATE
. Well, I think there there are several different things. It's not AA linear line that you get to this point and then they stop hiking. You know, clearly the global economy is going through a down shift. You guys haven't talked much
this morning
TIME
about
China
GPE
You did
yesterday
DATE
. You know, that's another variable that I think is is important. So, growth, I think globally is gonna is gonna moderate a good deal
next year
DATE
and I think that's gonna create a window of opportunity after the Has hiked further in
September
DATE
And
December
DATE
probably by
25
CARDINAL
basis points those last two this year to take a pause and let the the contractionary impulse of that monetary policy and QT play through to the real economy and that's when they're gonna reassess that's when we're gonna see a pause and the hiking cycle they may have to Further as inflation doesn't moderate as they expect but I think with the negative impulse of global growth
China
GPE
and
Europe
LOC
in particular On
US
GPE
growth the next board activity as well as the strong dollar that your reference all of that should create an opportunity for the thread to take
a pause early next year
DATE
Mention
China
GPE
it's a perfect opportunity for us to do so where has the market not priced in the slow down that we're seeing actually confirmed even by official data coming out of
China
GPE
. Where have we seen that priced in? Well, I think we should That you think we should. No it's certainly seen it in the currency I I think it is fairly priced and we've seen obviously real stress and in credit in
China
GPE
we've seen equities which had a rally
earlier this year
DATE
have come off and and the currency is moderate so I I think it's reasonably priced in
Chinese
NORP
markets are very very tricky as you know much more so than than the western ones just because you you don't you don't have clarity it's not just a fundamental fundamentally driven market you've got incredible monetary and governmental stimulant and contraction that can go on I think I think markets are fairly priced in
China
GPE
reflecting the uncertainty because as we know this is
a big year
DATE
as your place out with their forum we don't think they're gonna let the economy collapse a whole lot further Speak with a certain authority or BNP Perrybaugh has an absolute unique relationship with China Back to
1860
DATE
on my
first
ORDINAL
trip to
China
GPE
folks I had the pleasure of the honor really of meeting with senior
BNP
ORG
officials in government officials in
Beijing
GPE
it was a Meeting Mark Howard is
the united states
GPE
risk
China
GPE
trade in commerce to
Europe
LOC
is there a point here where
Europe
LOC
and particularly
BMP Perrybust
ORG
France
GPE
can be opportunistic and get a marginal ed
China
GPE
trade in commerce to
Europe
LOC
is there a point here where
Europe
LOC
in particularly
BMP Perrybot's
PERSON
friends can be opportunistic and get a marginal edge in
China
GPE
? Well, my good friend and colleague
George Son
PERSON
is the best person to ask about that because he's on the ground and he's watching
the flows day to day
DATE
. But I I think that you know
China
GPE
is a global player and and there they have you know bilateral relationships with all the leading trading partners including those that have big financial institutions I'm not sure that it's a regional opportunity or risk that
Framed
PERSON
right now. I think rather it's it's in in market by market product by product. It's in the best interest of all global players to continue to support trade even though there are tensions in frictions. The
one
CARDINAL
belt one road initiative and the the variants of Create opportunity for
European
NORP
institutions and for
African
NORP
and for
American
NORP
and I think that's gonna continue to be the case but certainly they're gonna be fits and starts and they're gonna be, you know, periods where you know, one
one
CARDINAL
country or
one
CARDINAL
institution finds itself on the back foot temporarily but Global players will remain I think committed to
China
GPE
. They won't let they won't let it happen. Mark that implies they have a great degree of control over the situation that is up to them not to allow things to happen. To what extent do you think they actually have control over some of those some of these dynamics taken place in this economy Well, it's not just the ability but the willingness, Jonathan, and that's that's why I, my friends used it that way. There there are certain circumstances like the housing and the and the property markets where they have the ability to Pump things up there with the ability to insert capital and and stabilize financial institutions or construction companies By, you know, orchestrating the workouts of that. We don't do that in the west. We don't do that in the
UK
GPE
or
Europe
LOC
. So, that's
one
CARDINAL
example of where that clearly in the market as well and given the importance of export activity for them They they had the ability to to to maneuver their currency in order to support key sectors of their economy and they used the regulatory switch rather aggressively too so they have the ability to support some of their domestic exporters at the expense of other players so I I think they just do it more frequently Which in my opinion means that they they're more likely to intervene and support growth and other priorities Send our best I think that's an important dynamic to think about in
China
GPE
because if they do face what some people fear they face which is of some form of liquidity trap they're not allowing to things to happen what it maybe their control is the weather happens or not especially because
Lila Miller
PERSON
yesterday
DATE
was saying they really haven't put that much stimulus into the market you say faded response Stimulus. They did start to put in. Features up
two
CARDINAL
tenths of one% This is bloom back. Keeping you up to date with news farm around the world with the
first
ORDINAL
word I wish you could get yeah the
US
GPE
says that a nuclear deal with
Iran
GPE
is
Spokesman
PERSON
says
Iran
GPE
has appeared to drop some of its quote non-starter demands the
Biden
PERSON
administration continues to review the ears latest proposal Survive the agreement curbing
Iran
GPE
's nuclear program. The group has collectively placed a big short across futures for a key overnight rate that moves in line with the feds benchmark that position will benefit if
fed
ORG
chair and
palette
GPE
effectively rules out a doubleish pivot when he speaks at this
week
DATE
's symposium And the price of
US
GPE
natural gas rose above at
10 1 million a $10
MONEY
per
one 1 million
CARDINAL
BTUs for the
first
ORDINAL
time since
2008
DATE
that extends a rally driven by concerns that global stockpiles aren't enough to meet
winter
DATE
demand in the
US
GPE
inventories are well below normal after
summer
DATE
heat boosted electric Demand meanwhile production has grown a modestly And life expectancy in you.
In the
US
GPE
inventories are well below normal after
summer
DATE
heat boosted electricity demand meanwhile production has grown a modestly And life expected to see in
New York
GPE
plummeted by
3 years
DATE
in
2020
DATE
the
CDC
ORG
says that was the
Decline
ORG
among all states in
the first year
DATE
of the COVID pandemic. Residents of
New York
GPE
are expected to live to just under
78
DATE
, the
15th
ORDINAL
highest life expectancy in the country overall
US
GPE
life expected deep plunge by
8 years in 2020
DATE
that is the biggest drop since
World War
EVENT
two
CARDINAL
global news
24 hours
TIME
a day on
Aaron
PERSON
on
Bloomberg
GPE
quick take powered by
more than 2700
CARDINAL
journalists and analysts in
more than 120
CARDINAL
countries and we could get to this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
If you do any kind of business in this country, there's a pretty good chance that you're gonna see that business registered in
Delaware
GPE
. Why? Because that's where you do it. And our point was Wyoming Enterprise Way to sit around and wait for change. We want that independence. We want that freedom. We want that individuality. And that's a common theme that brings together a bipartisan support for this
NYM
ORG
. We wanna make sure that people understand, especially in
Wyoming
GPE
, but as you know, it is a whole. This trend is coming. It's not going to stop. This is more of a small town that's growing into without a call that cryptocurrency version of
Silicone Valley
FAC
. It's the philosophy of that rugged individualism the independence and the ability to really get things done for yourself and control your own destiny. You get that from a blockchain and you don't get that without it. We're not data point dependent. What do you think of when you think of a battery For most it's what we used to power devices for both work and play and maybe even your car Over
the past few decades
DATE
, they've gotten way more powerful, long-lasting, and affordable. But all of this is just a prologue to what the next batteries are going to do. As we drive to a increasingly renewable power driven grid, we also need to be able to store energy and release it later to cover those periods of weather intermittencies that are driving this new grid that we're in.
We also need to be able to store energy and release it later to cover those periods of weather intermittencies that are driving this new grid that we're in. It's a
multi-trillion dollar
MONEY
opportunity It's imperative that we figure out the solution here How we store energy on a massive scale is in many ways the central challenge of the fight to stop climate change. We're seeing increasingly Naturally what's going on with the natural gas situation is is a is a key contributing factor there and so we're targeting 97 on Euro And more strength to come for the dollar. Good morning
Tom Keen
PERSON
Lisa Brown
PERSON
with
Saint Jonathan Ferrow
PERSON
futures up just a little bit let's call it
two
CARDINAL
tenths of
one% Higher
ORG
on the SMP a quarter of
one%
ORG
higher on the Nasdaq 100 I've gotta get used to quote in this 99 27 I'm just road toddler Wait this type of number it's gone we're
negative 016%
PERCENT
. That's more euro weakness out there and some more dollar strength
Tom
PERSON
It is right now let's get to this because I think it's so important it's a bit away from what we're doing in the markets John and I'll do that with foreign exchange here In a moment
Sterling one 1762
ORG
International relations in
Europe
LOC
and the unspoken
Tina Fordham
PERSON
joins us right now found in geopolitical strategies to form global foresight I I Tina where we are in the bombing in
Moscow
GPE
and all that and there seems to be an unraveling and our world it is a parable of energy prices in your world it's something like miss
Maloney
PERSON
in
Italy
GPE
with not fascist but certainly very osteo tendencies like How unsettled is
Europe
LOC
The energy price overlay. Well
Tom
PERSON
you've highlighted some of the the themes that are And really in the in the global political risk outlook where those high energy prices you've mentioned of course are being driven by the continuation of of the
Russian
NORP
invasion of
Ukraine
GPE
which is no sign of a bating plus the long standing
Kremlin
ORG
policy of of intervening in in
European
NORP
politic It's not illegal
first
ORDINAL
of all for
European
NORP
political parties to actually take funding from from other countries and and furthermore this is long documented urbans picture orbits connection to
the Kremlin Matilda Salvini
ORG
who's on the record
today
DATE
from the
Legonord
ORG
party in
Italy
GPE
saying that perhaps sanctions against
Russia
GPE
aren't working. So, while policy makers and markets are, you know, rightly focused on the kind of harrowing inflation outlook. Ticking up the reaction function and the attention These cracks are are really concerning on the
September
DATE
elections in
Italy
GPE
are going to to put a prime minister in office who is uncomfortably close to fattest tendencies and with you know connections to
Russia
GPE
. There's gotta be my my reading of history here and it may be
1938
DATE
under whatever you could pick your point of gloom Fact is this pricing leads to international relation and political adjustment what would you suggest that adjustment will be? Well it's the
first
ORDINAL
level it's going to lead to enormous household distress And I see that through the lens of what's happening here in the
UK
GPE
with the leadership contest for the for the Tory party and the talk about the energy price cap you were talking about households seeing a quintupling in their energy bills that normal household paying you know over a 1000 lb a month for electricity It's a shark that is not going to be
Normal household paying you know over a 1000 lb a month for electricity it's it's a shock that is not going to be able to be absorbed so first of all it's going to I think there's gonna be mass non payment It's all about getting those
160 1000
CARDINAL
conservative party voters. Different platform So this government is going to be reactive by contrast macron in
France
GPE
has been more proactive saying it's Hey the patriotic duty to kind of deal with it and we have to stay strong in the in the face of of
Russia
GPE
I think that
Europe
LOC
's resolve when it comes to supporting
Ukraine
GPE
we'll continue but it there's gonna be a lot of pain this is going to hurt and you ask what the kind of Your response is going to be Look at the pandemic and they're going to expect government support. How we get there is very hard to say. But the public won't be able to absorb price increases of of these proportions. Went where I wanted to go which is you said that the resolve will remain strong to support
Ukraine
GPE
to battle
Russia
GPE
and that the
European
NORP
people will continue with that When does that phrase especially as power cost And there is an increasing course of people saying perhaps some of the sanctions and some of the measures taken against
Russia
GPE
were as penalizing to the western nations as anyone else. Well I mean it's it's always a question right of what's the alternative and there's no going back to
Russia
GPE
as an energy supplier.
Those days
DATE
are over and the substitution of supply is already happening. We are however looking at AA very difficult Winter here one that people aren't used to you know in the old days at least you had AA fireplace and you could firewood now it's central heating which means people are going to have to to turn it off so it's going to be incredibly difficult but what you do see in
Europe
LOC
is An increasing sense that
Ukraine
GPE
has to win this conflict But I guess what I'm trying to say is that maintaining that position Of support and the sacrifice that it's going to entail for households means you have to accelerate the green transition you've gotta keep those nuclear power plants going which is a huge turn around for
Jerwood
ORG
policy and that's happening rather quickly not quickly enough to alleviate pain this this But i think quickly enough and and again we can't go back to to
Russia
GPE
as a as a dependence upon
Russia
GPE
as an energies supplier there in honor of
Huge
ORG
huge changes. We need to try to down to
10
CARDINAL
afford them global forsight and
Tom
PERSON
I really wanna pick up on that I think we're all struggling collectively to process some of these numbers and some of these moves and we haven't even started to think about the so called Can round effects of all of this.
Yesterday
DATE
we talked about city's forecast for inflation in the
UK
GPE
may be peaking at
18%
PERCENT
in
January
DATE
. I just feels like a number with throwing out there
Tom
PERSON
without even really thinking through. Totally rude. What on earth But
Tom
PERSON
I don't think we really understand what that actually means for the
European
NORP
consumer this winter. And this is really important and that it's part of what we're
Bloomberg
PERSON
and you know, the invention is surveillance and all that John is by definition. We're removed from from all this but to your point of
second
ORDINAL
order effects at the
Order
PRODUCT
the
second
ORDINAL
round if you will as time moves on And where Tina comes in and others in international relations is trying to look to the past and the ghost of the past and say what's different this time and that Urgency to
the fourth quarter of this year
DATE
that we haven't seen in
ages
DATE
. These are parabolic moose, John. Huge moves,
Lisa
PERSON
, and really complex issues. And they're trickling out to just beyond the euro zone. You're seeing natural gas in the
US
GPE
also surge. Should the highest level since
2008
DATE
. So, come
Lisa
PERSON
and really complex issues. And they're trickling out to just beyond the euro zone. You're seeing natural gas in the
US
GPE
also surge. Should the highest level since
2008
DATE
. So we're coming global. Raising that issue. How divergent can these economists go economies really be? We'll catch up with an economist next. Snacks. Coming up in
about 5 minutes
TIME
time from
New York
GPE
. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Apples delaying it's next major
iPad
ORG
softer update
iPad
ORG
OS
16
CARDINAL
by
about a month
DATE
from
September
DATE
to
October
DATE
.
Apple
ORG
made the decision for a number of reasons including a still buggy stage manager multitasking interface and in order to link the launch closer to the more similar MacOS
Ventura
GPE
. Still it's an unusual move since shifting the launches to the fall in
2011
DATE
Apple
ORG
has released it's new
iPhone
ORG
and
iPad
ORG
softer updates simultaneously
each year
DATE
around
September
DATE
. Users may find some issues around compatibility with cross device features like retracting and editing messages in iMessage The new shared icon photo library and the new feature for transferring
FaceTime
ORG
calls between
iPhones
ORG
and
iPads
ORG
. It will also make it a bit harder for developers to launch apps that run on both the
iPad
ORG
and
iPhone
ORG
that require new APIs and features found across
iPad
ORG
OS
16
DATE
and iOS 16 Regardless it was still of course the right move Stage manager on
iPad
ORG
016 is still quite buggy I don't find it particularly intuitive and it's not compatible with most iPads and many
third
ORDINAL
party apps on the App Store the feature clearly need some more polish and complaints from consumers about stage manager will now no longer probably Surround yourself with and work with the best investors you can find on
Bloomberg Wealth
PERSON
I'm gonna take you to meet the greatest investors in the world the people that I would like to have managing my money that the start of the internet I have kicked up a lot of controversy declaring that the internet had been under hyped. I say the same thing
today
DATE
about the climate revolution.
The Fed Empower
ORG
in particular Inflation premium. To react.
To react. Central banks everywhere will take anything they can get Oh my god.
New york
GPE
city
this morning
TIME
.
Morning
TIME
. It's about the data the shock I'm looking at the Bloom We're gonna review that with you throughout the hour and frankly throughout our trip to
Jackson Hall
FAC
and what we'll hear from Chairman
Paul
PERSON
on
Friday
DATE
John I wanna go to the great divide of
America
GPE
this is something
Yahtzee
GPE
Did
years
DATE
and
years ago
DATE
Macy
ORG
's just out John and buried in it as a comp sales it working class
Macy
ORG
's
Two
CARDINAL
. Nine% and a fancy blooming deals where Mrs.
Farrell
PERSON
shops up
eight
CARDINAL
.
Eight%
ORG
that describes a divide of this nation. From retown right now marks down promotions
Lisa
PERSON
inventory aged inventory these are big big problems that we were hopeful that targeted work their way through
Macy
ORG
's it just seems that just starting the Is that they actually beat expectations when it comes to sales. However, when it comes to their forecast, they ratchet them down because of the expectation of consumers slowing down their purchases. How do you get ahead of such a quickly moving tide of consumer sentiment and the post pandemic reality job? They've had to cut Guidance
this morning
TIME
. Positive about a
10th
ORDINAL
of one% on the S and
P. Macy's
ORG
just about positive as well. On the Nasdaq 100 up by
015%
PERCENT
. It would take a look at the bond market. You will turn changed that just north of
three%
GPE
as the breakthrough
three
CARDINAL
we've seen in
the last 24 hours
TIME
but the moving foreign exchange Higher gas prices what we're watching
today
DATE
9:45 AM
TIME
: we do get a series of PM Out of the
US
GPE
for manufacturing as well as for services although at
10 AM
TIME
, this is what I'm watching in terms of data.
Us
GPE
July
DATE
new home sales, how much do you see activity in the home market? It really deteriorate on the heels of higher mortgage rates. At
1 PM
TIME
, the
US
GPE
is selling
44 1 billion dollars
MONEY
of
two-year
DATE
notes. This is fascinating to me especially as people We've been hearing about that from
Steve Oth
PERSON
and others at
three
CARDINAL
.
Three%
GPE
however what is the risk of the
fed
ORG
going much further and staying there longer than people are currently expecting and we were just talking about
Macy
ORG
's the earning season is
Dripping
PERSON
to it and here we've got
Macy
ORG
's that just came out. Those chairs up now
two
CARDINAL
. Two%. They did beat on the sales. However, they downgraded their overall forecast. We also hear from
Dick's Sporting Goods
ORG
. Ignore it from after the bell. How much does
Macy
ORG
's really become the theme in terms of the mood Forward. What does it say about the consumer John? At a time where they've hung in there for now but there's the expectation that it is a temporary resilience that will fade. That sucks
this morning
TIME
hanging in there Now. Send Lisa thank you. Joining us now we get really lucky. Chief economist at
Yan
PERSON
let's talk about it.
China
GPE
. GDP forecast over at
Goldman
ORG
now
three%
GPE
for
the year
DATE
.
Europe
LOC
based case for pretty much Everybody they answer recession yeah I'm wearing earth does that leave the
US
GPE
economy I think the
US
GPE
doesn't have quite the same degree of headwinds as as both
China
GPE
and
Europe
LOC
and
China
GPE
obviously you have oh COVID policy and the property market downtown Is a multi year development in
Europe
LOC
you've got the gas issue there's nothing quite to the same degree that we have in the
US
GPE
but it's going to be a slow growth environment below trend the
fed
ORG
once below trend that's why financial conditions are where they are because the Tightening pretty aggressively and you've got the fiscal drag so plenty of headwinds for sure but I don't think it's quite as bad as in as
Because the feds tightening pretty aggressively and you've got the fiscal drag so plenty of headwinds for sure but I don't think it's quite as bad as in as in
China
GPE
or the Euro area. How do you expect him in town to navigate that young this I think he'll be balancing between
two
CARDINAL
things.
One
CARDINAL
, I think he will lay out a case as he did at the last press conference as they did in the minutes Slowing the pace of increases with
275
CARDINAL
basis point moves our expectation would be barring significant data surprises that the
September
DATE
move is
50
CARDINAL
I think he'll you Don't think he'll be specific about the number but I do think he'll be saying you know there is a risk of overtightening Therefore it makes sense to go a little bit more slowly than this really outsized increases but at the same time he'll he'll make clear that the job is not yet done inflation is way too high they're Permitted to bringing inflation back down to two% or or thereabouts so I think it will be a balancing act.
Bloomberg
PERSON
in
the last 24 hours
TIME
saying sustain sustained sustain a higher yield environment are we getting our time our
XXS
FAC
wrong Now do we need to look out
2 years 3 years
DATE
or
5 years
DATE
of elevated inflation I think
a year from now 2 years
DATE
from now inflation will be much lower because there are some you know some some drivers I mean commodity prices are are clear the good sector in general I do That's going to come off a lot. The risk is more on the service side where we've seen less of an indication that things are slowing especially rents are still growing very quickly. So, I think that's still going to be well above normal, you know, into 2000 Maybe even maybe even beyond. So, Do think that they're they're going to be improvements but not everywhere. Should we have a more nominal GDP nominal inflation analysis, witness that haves and they have not that have nots are getting crushed minute by minute should we switch to a more nominal study? Well I think what you're suggesting is that we look at the distribution of incomes and and spending and you clearly see some big big differences there and I think You know,
Macy
ORG
's versus
North Strongs
LOC
is a good example. You can look at Real income at the top end at the bottom end of the income distribution there's been a much bigger pullback at the bottom end in part because the fiscal support was so much more important there and that's come off and in part because at the bottom end you see more of an impact from gas prices and inflation generally The margin the dropping gas prices obviously is helping somewhat more at the bottom end but that's only a small part of the previous deterioration there is over yawn at least with physical goods a bit of a disinflationary pressure whether it comes to inven Or some of the commodity prices that have come off is it enough to achieve a soft landing if you actually improve some of your forecasts about what the
fed
ORG
has to do and the outcome in the
US
GPE
economy I think it's certainly helped for and we've, you know, continue to be in the softish landing camp in part because of the expectation that some of the goods precious would abait. The most important Adjustment in the labor market. That's something that they need to pull off and I think we've seen some encouraging indicators in particular the one.
1 million
CARDINAL
decline in job openings that we've seen in the Which is probably still underway we'll probably see some further significant declines there that is To bring the labor market into better balance. Still
early days
DATE
, we still have a large gap between between jobs and workers, but at least we're moving in the right direction, there are nothing. I think that Would be key to sustain it. Do you think that the market right now is not reflecting what still has to be done though from the federal reserve in order to achieve that? And this is something that we've heard about throughout
the morning
TIME
, the theme of
the day
DATE
has been it shocks me to wake up to it. That is the bearish tilt.
From the federal reserve in order to achieve that and this is something that we've heard about throughout
the morning
TIME
the theme of
the day
DATE
has been at
Stockton
GPE
to wake up to it that is the bearish tilt do you agree with that that right now they are not accounting for the pain Hey think the terminal rate pricing doesn't look too low I mean it's sort of
three
CARDINAL
you know
three and a half
DATE
or a little bit more I think that that is sufficient relative to to all of forecast Maybe even a little bit more than sufficient. Where I would disagree more with market pricing is the pricing for significant rate cuts. I think that you know certainly could happen. It would happen if you So I I do think that those cuts are probably somewhat excessive from Market pricing perspective. For how long is it too early to premature to have that conversation? Oh I think it could be
a couple of years
DATE
. I mean really get to the you get to the you know mid threes or or maybe even a little bit higher and then you stay there I think it'll still be significantly above the target and ultimately they do want to get back down to pretty close to
two%
ORG
. Yeah, that is totally out of consensus. How much push back do you get from clients when you bring that up? I think it's a way from market pricing. I don't know if it's as out of consensus in terms of what forecasts are saying. I think they're quite a lot of forecasters and beneficials. I mean you you just mentioned Right? Reasonable baseline. This is the theme. If you're gonna hold rates of that kind of effort and it could be a stress you said could be
a couple of years
DATE
when is a soft landing fit in to that kind of profile that kind of race profile Well I think that is a soft landing kind of kind of assumption if it wasn't a soft blending if you went into a recession then I think you would get cuts but if growth stays at
one% one and
ORG
a half percent labor market continues to adjust inflation gradually comes down Relatively high you know I think that is a soft landing absolutely fascinating yeah it will continue this conversation So much. I'm not on
Goldman
ORG
's HQ. No. Where it's located? But more just on. Can you imagine
Lisa
PERSON
?
Three and a half percent
DATE
for
a couple of years
DATE
. I'm looking at investment grade bonds to all yield was below
two%
ORG
not that long ago. We can have a discussion. This is a fascinating one. The future's unchanged on the SMP from
New York City
GPE
. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Keeping you up to date with news from around the world with the
first
ORDINAL
word I'm rescued gasoline prices in the
US
GPE
have now fallen for
70 days
DATE
straight that's the most in
more than seven and a half years
DATE
To the auto club triple
A. Bump
PERSON
prices are averaging $
389
MONEY
. A
gallon
CARDINAL
. That is after reaching a record high over around $
five
MONEY
in
mid June
DATE
. Maybe coming to pass economic activity in the Eurozone fell for
a second month August
DATE
drop was driven by manufacturing still the post lockdown rebound in services like tourism
Ground
PERSON
to a halt. Could seem as had been hit by big jumps in both energy and food costs The
US
GPE
warns that
Russia
GPE
is about to launch a new round of attacks against
Ukraine
GPE
and government facilities
Queens
GPE
preparing to celebrate it's independence day on
Wednesday
DATE
says that
Russia
GPE
quote may try to do something particularly nasty But it's wees is now dope seeing more on wealth management while it's making cuts to its trouble
Estimate
ORG
bank.
Bank
ORG
is we are signing advisors to its private banking international unit which goes after high net worth clients that is according to an internal memo seen by global news 20
It's private banking international unit which goes after high net worth clients that is according to an internal memo seen
five
CARDINAL
when he is
20
CARDINAL
More than
120
CARDINAL
countries and which could go up to this has been bad.
Today
DATE
what is the biggest challenges for general dynamics and what are the biggest opportunities So, I think in in any business, the challenges are solving complex problems that come to you. You know, they're the problems that come to me and my senior leadership team for for resolving tend to be highly complex and nettle So your ability to solve those complex problems are an important element. I think of the value that we add. To the company. And then I think opportunities, you know, you always wanna make sure that you've got a creative, enough mind, and open enough mind to be able to see around square corners. What are my missing? You know, the
Y
ORG
questions are really For why are we not doing this or why are we doing this? I ask those questions a lot and in the answers, you can sometimes tease out some real opportunities, some hidden things, but thinking creatively about
Opportunities
PERSON
and problems. It's really important. And what about the industry generally? I think they have big challenges now as the defense budget probably comes down a bit. So I think that we are all responsible and and we have an obligation To find the latest and best technologies that we can for our customers and deliver them the most cost effective manner we can and I think that that's a challenging and opportunity for all of the big defense companies Markets are preparing to close but the day is not over yet. Lot of volatility right now. You need top analyst to bring you exclusive global insight into cross asset markets. Hey it's gonna be short term
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PRODUCT
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. Start exploring to see what's moving the markets. Visit
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PERSON
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DATE
as the world watches inflation rise employment rebound Economic policy symposium. Discuss the economic issues and solutions that keep the world's money moving
Radio
ORG
. A real mess. There's no growth momentum anywhere in
Europe
LOC
. The only place where I can see any growth momentum coming through before
the end of the year
DATE
is probably in the
US
GPE
and even that it's gonna be patchy but it's no end near as bad as it is in
Europe
LOC
and I think that the
US
GPE
is gonna avoid recession quite comfortably. I needed that calming soothing music to promo
Jackson For Ed Shepherd Center Panther
ORG
and turns around and just says things are a real mess. Basically unchanged on the S and P 502 really tough days for the equity market balls over
the last 2 days
DATE
on the S and P 500 we've been lower by
around about three
CARDINAL
. Four% now as they Up around about a
10th
ORDINAL
of
one%
ORG
. Any effects market euro dollar in
99 27
DATE
. We down another
10th
ORDINAL
of
one%
ORG
it's
4 days
DATE
of euro weakness and
Tom
PERSON
more we data out of
Europe
LOC
this morning
TIME
. We need a pause on this John the bid he gets stressed here
about 20 minutes
TIME
with
DXY
ORG
out over
109
CARDINAL
Greg Anderson
PERSON
at
BMO Capital
ORG
using
BBB
ORG
BBD XY as well John I I don't even know what to pick here other than
Sterling
ORG
had a difficult 3 AM and now
Euro
MONEY
. 9925 is challenged we need to pick up on the conversation we just had with Told us that the hurdle for interest rate cuts
next year
DATE
is much huge. Yeah. Than most people think. He also post the idea
Tom
PERSON
that maybe you get to
about three and a half percent
CARDINAL
and you stay there for apps
Discuss Tom
PERSON
in a material way at all. Well, I've been talking about the
XAX
ORG
. It's not my job. You'll pine on this. It will leave that to Dr.
Hatsia
PERSON
and other wordies but John I just think it's
one
CARDINAL
outcome that has to be considered at the Absolute Minimum and as you and I said earlier this is gotta be it's just gotta be the to me the core theme here at
Jackson Ole
FAC
leading up to the the chairman's speech on
Friday
DATE
again John we're there
Thursday
DATE
it's you me grizzly bears
Lisa three
PERSON
elks Hey Ignore I've actually never pharaoh suit on. Grizzly bear in the lodge. That's the best we need to discuss on
Friday
DATE
Lisa. Market saying rate cuts let's go in
23
CARDINAL
and some people like Yanhartius and
the Federal Reserve
ORG
for that match are saying hold up hold up what we might be holding for a while it's the good and the bad of
Brazilian
NORP
economy the good is that it's resilient that you avoid a At that level for longer without torpedoing the momentum and that's something people haven't really discussed. On this right now futures little bit elevated not quite as elevated as earlier. Right now, quickly
Joe Matthew
PERSON
from
Washington
GPE
.
Joe
PERSON
, get out the map.
Moscow
GPE
straight south to
Kramey
PERSON
is
1100
DATE
mi. All
Putin
PERSON
cares about his crimeia over to
Odessa
PERSON
which is
360
CARDINAL
mi. Triangulate this with President
Bi
PERSON
In
Washington
GPE
. All of a sudden what's changed is
Crimea
ORG
is discussed. That was unthinkable
Joe
PERSON
2 years ago
DATE
. This is very true and we're seeing this virtual meeting now with delegations from
40
CARDINAL
nations trying to put pressure on
Vladimir Putin
PERSON
over crime media I imagine that he thought this was said and done here but there's a lot of concern about tomorrow we're Remember the
US
GPE
ambassador to
Ukraine
GPE
is only been there for
a couple of months
DATE
now our diplomatic presence in the capital could be very much at risk if
Vaughn Putin
PERSON
to the point of of of president
Solanski
PERSON
Our diplomatic presence in the capital could be very much at risk if
Vatimer Putin
PERSON
to the point of of of president
Solanski
PERSON
who you see right now could try something cruel could try something unusual in attacking the capital city on what of course is a day of celebration for
Ukrainians
NORP
Here on the terminal of a
Russian
NORP
military again that is bogged down And a
Ukrainian
NORP
military that is inspired by the the effort to protect its homeland in a remarkable way is this gonna be something we're talking about
6 months later
DATE
that could bring And we all hope that it gets resolved sooner in a way that avoids some of the carnage.
Joe
PERSON
we've been talking about the resilience with
Tina Fordham
PERSON
, the persistent feeling in
Europe
LOC
, that this is an important cause, even as gas prices rise dramatically even as
Surrogates
ORG
for
Joe Biden
PERSON
whether they like it or not go out and takes a campaigning Well, it is for now. The question is, how long can this last? When does the war fatigue set in? When are the louder questions about spending
billions of dollars
MONEY
to support the effort in
Ukraine
GPE
? It's actually quite remarkable that there has not been a larger crime, more isolationist view, particularly from members of
congress
ORG
but the
Biden
PERSON
administration Has held true to its promises so far for president
Zalenski
PERSON
and the people of
Ukraine
GPE
where we gonna be though post midterms where are we gonna be as we go into the winter heating season those are really important questions the reaction here in
the United States
GPE
could be very different from what we
John Matthew
PERSON
thank you looking forward to the show a little bit later
Sam Don
PERSON
on
Bloomberg Radio
ORG
weekdays at
5 PM
TIME
eastern time let's start on gas prices at least there is just amazing isn't it was it
70 days
DATE
Just amazing. Gasoline which is come down for
70 straight days
DATE
versus natural gas surging around this whole country. Wouldn't get confused. Wouldn't that help out? That's unAmerican. Sorry. Nobody wants to call it illuminate. Okay, alright. Let me talk soon about that. We can't A gas station. It's Where's my intern? Can we get some therapy for those
two
CARDINAL
? I mean is it it's In in in the
UK
GPE
do you call a petrol station? Really? Wow. Okay John can I post what heart to you said? This is stain here is not a static sustain. It's a eight% inflation. It's if we come down and it's totally unacceptable for
Lawrence Summer's
PERSON
and for anybody at the fet on the other side of the debate It's three% or four% or five% that's the then what And that's where you get into the
3 year
DATE
regime. You've raised that few times
Tom
PERSON
and I totally agree with you. We're talking about Fed Pivot just because we've seen year over year inflation peak potentially there are North and nine%
Lisa
PERSON
it's a big And this is the reason why people say that there is no pivot. I wanna go back though to what
Yon Hats
PERSON
is saying. Basically, his implication is that this economy is a lot less interest rate sensitive than people thought that they can withstand a
three and a half
DATE
to four% interest rate for a prolonged period of time without getting a torpedo. This goes against the conventional wisdom of the low Whole decades and I find that fascinating. Find that out. Find that out. No. Really petrol. Pioneer grill. On. Oh, they're local. They're local. Oh
Lisa
PERSON
told me.
When you think space you probably think One space agency that travels under the radar is easter. Which is surprising considering what the
European
NORP
space agency is achieved and how vicele it is to the global space industry. Please collaborate with pretty much everybody who is involved in space expiration. But
Issa
PERSON
wants to be a leading force in furthering humanity's mission into space. In a different way. The place where we are going to the to do that is on the moon. And
Lisa
PERSON
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2 days
DATE
of losses on the S and P 500
the last 2 days
DATE
down by
about three
CARDINAL
. Four% on a SMP this morning just in and around unchanged on the
SMP
ORG
positive
004%
PERCENT
. Similar move of an Asnac 100 a lot of the pain the contribution from the front end to the bond market I think Look at
2 years
DATE
together
287
CARDINAL
at
the start of August
DATE
getting really close to the interstate highs of the year of
345
CARDINAL
right now
about 333
CARDINAL
yields up by a couple of basis points the 332 Two and the prospect that may be the
fed
ORG
does raise and hold and hold Thomas
Right now
about 333
CARDINAL
yields up by a couple of basis points the 332 Sue and the prospect that maybe the
Fed
ORG
does rate and hold and hold
Tom
PERSON
at
three
CARDINAL
. Five% there and thereabouts for
a couple of years
DATE
according to Snacks TK that's the big divide as we go into
Jackson Hall
FAC
people looking at to
23
CARDINAL
and talking about raid cuts and a
fed
ORG
not saying anything about it
Bloomberg
PERSON
intelligence and economics adamant that we're gonna go much much higher than maybe hotties is center tendency. I'd also suggest
John John Taylor
PERSON
of
Stanford University
ORG
was forceful with
Bloomberg
PERSON
a number of hours ago and just saying look we've got a normalized at any cost in that
Two
CARDINAL
questions
Tom
PERSON
and they're the right ones. One, how resilient is this economy and
two
CARDINAL
, if it's not that resilient, how tolerant will this fed be if any weakness and that really means you have to roast yourself the question,
Tom
PERSON
, how high is that hurdle for right I would say
John Dapp
PERSON
hurdle going back to
Mcchesney Martin
PERSON
and
Truman
PERSON
is a political hurdle. I'm sorry. This will get to a point where politics will invade the discussion. It's not clicked in just yet. Not for sure. On the other way. That was a very different picture. Did you do okay there? Hey Football prediction. Let's look at foreign exchange. The best tweet I've seen. Over
the last few days
DATE
. It's just a
China Euro
ORG
dollar. A break of parity and the title
Tom
PERSON
is it's called soccer now. If you like that so I guess The power of
US
GPE
dollar. Wrong. As Man United get it done but TK we've gotta get used to this. 99 25. We have
Matt Hornback
PERSON
and
Morgan Stanley
ORG
yesterday
DATE
saying
97
CARDINAL
,
Jordan
GPE
,
Rochester
GPE
saying, maybe
95
CARDINAL
over an
Amora
GPE
. That's some big calls. Genetically gonna go to EM analysis on this and you know there's certain economies that are actually doing pretty good here. It's a developed economy, a developer, headache right now, but with that Maybe we do what we always do John
walk yen yen yen
MONEY
has not weekend yet talk about sterling one 1768 stunning About and change but numbers that Tell me I didn't think we'd be talking about through much of the sheer. I have to say. And
9795
DATE
. I say that bit cools but at
99 22
CARDINAL
on
Euro dollar
LAW
. It's a cup of coffee away. Basically that. Maybe a few sessions away. That's the foreign exchange story that cross that said picture. Let's get you some single We can do that with
Lisa
PERSON
. Hey
Lisa
PERSON
. Hey John. If you want an emerging markets feel take a look at bed bath and beyond shares. They have been all over the place losing
60%
PERCENT
three trading days
DATE
a little bit of a rebound
today
DATE
. Up about four% revenge of the memes.
AMC
ORG
I got hammered
yesterday
DATE
because
Theater
ORG
operator as As in this more importantly preferred chair is starting to trade you're seeing a little bit of a rebound there not much there's a big question about live audiences getting back to it in the post pandemic era zoom shares down
11
CARDINAL
and a half percent pre market trading after downgrading their sales forecast
yesterday
DATE
after the bell in terms of
Today
DATE
we just got dick sporting goods and we did see them beat expectations as well as raise
their full year
DATE
forecast you're seeing a pop and no shares in response
two
CARDINAL
.
Three%
GPE
gain
Macy
ORG
's up at
two
CARDINAL
. One% even though they actually came out and downgraded their Forecast but people were expecting this to me
Fascinating
PERSON
. So, people are rewarding their beat, rewarding what they're delivering was even as they say, look, it's gonna get worse from here in
Nordstrom
ORG
shares up
one
CARDINAL
more than
one%
ORG
. They report after the belltime.
Lisa
PERSON
, thanks so much. Greatly appreciate it. Long ago and far away A short-term paper and a short-term trust market was either commercial paper analysis or labor analysis when he sees her noses global head of strategy. A credit site
Winnie I wanna
PRODUCT
start with the gloom that's out there the stew of
Bloomberg
GPE
surveillance and the joke we make is it's a toxic The toxic brew out there now what are we gonna learn from the short term trust market what we used to call the library market what's a toxic brew you see right now in short term paper or is it all come? Well I'm not sure about a toxic brew. The front end of the market has clearly had some pretty significant challenges trying to assess exactly where the.
Well I'm not sure about a toxic brew. The front end of the market has clearly had some pretty significant challenges trying to assess exactly where the fat is heading. Seeing a lot of the leverage load markets which reference away from library towards so far. There's a lot of just for it's headwinds going on in the front of the market and that's just made it for a really Kind of liquidity market more broadly and then kind of pulling forward some of the big seams that's going on the front in the market you just come to the shape of the curve and that has been you know a real challenge for economists for corporate credit investors just for pretty much everyone involved in the To market. When I mention toxic brewing library that cause your baby to scream did I did I make it a fox par Okay, Lisa, please pick it up. What I said was, Pick it up A lot of people are screaming about the potential for interest rates that you like
Segway
PERSON
or Would say. And how high they could go and I wanna go to theme or perhaps not hiking rates as far as some people are projecting the bid
Bill Dudley
PERSON
ask is up north of four% but at
three and a half percent
DATE
for a prolonged period of time has this economy become less interest rate sensitive than many people previously it
Lisa
PERSON
that's a great question and I think that a lot of it comes down to the shape of the curve in terms of interest rate sensitivity When you look at the corporate credit market. Right now, we have very flat curves which from a refinancing perspective is actually very supportive. If you are assuming that a company has a maturity that they've been roll over into
10 or 30 year
DATE
debt. The increase in borrowing costs does not nearly a significant You're assuming that they're going to be just putting in place more to your paper and more to your paper. So, I do think that you can't kind of overestimate the vulnerability of the economy and corporate
America
GPE
to hire yields in general but there is kind of a lot of nuance in the story. Okay, so the Is where I'm actually curious because there is this belief and
Matt King
PERSON
has talked about this that you aren't gonna sit in the same default cycle. This time around because the maturities have been pushed out because companies have so much cash on their balance sheets. Do you agree? Are you going to see pockets of real serious distress? As you see Higher rate for a longer period of time. So I think that the default cycle is probably going to look a little bit different. We do have an expectation that heading into
next year
DATE
default creep higher not from a kind of glue and doom perspective could not a toxic brew as
Tom
PERSON
would say but definitely a closer to normalization of Long-term default rate. Now, one of the things that we're observing is there's not a really acute pocket of stress in a specific sector. It was energy for, you know, much of
the past 8 years
DATE
. It was telecom at
one
CARDINAL
point. It was autos at another point. Now, instead what we're seeing is these kind of specific Points where there are companies that just got their balance sheets highly leveraged. There were some sort of specific catalyst for that business that has been problematic and the benefit Corporate America for
the past few years
DATE
is that all of those ultra low barring costs really buy a lot of time in a rising rate kind of challenged economic environment. Wait,
one
CARDINAL
more quickly here if we could. If you do IG, you know, your legendary
Wells Fargo
ORG
over
the years
DATE
IG
ORG
distressed and all the rest of it. Do you make a
10 year
DATE
full faith in credit call? Do you have AA vision of where
10 year old
DATE
will be under the euro
12 months
DATE
? Yeah so we do make estimates for the tenure treasury market mostly because you have to have that to to forecast for the credit markets Go. We have a
three
CARDINAL
. 4 year% end forecast on both
the five and 10 years
DATE
. So still very flat curved. As we did expect that the side is going to hike rates into that kind of
three and a quarter
DATE
,
three and a half percent
DATE
by
the end of the year
DATE
. Curves will stay very flat and then we do have the said kind of staying on hold at the
Into that kind of
three and a quarter
DATE
,
three and a half percent
DATE
by
the end of the year
DATE
. Curves will stay very flat and then we do have the side tennis staying on hold at their elevated level for an extended period of time to assess that lag effects between policy tightening and actual economic conditions. Optimism from
Mark
PERSON
here's the quote a stronger
second
ORDINAL
half
CARDINAL
recovery in
China
GPE
should provide support for the global cycle in combination with still very low Positioning creates a positive Did a combination of a power will say in the mystery of the data to come should be aggregated together Got payrolls to come before that next meeting. Yeah. Got all inflation too. On
September 13
DATE
Lisa so the the road to
September
DATE
and
September
DATE
meeting is still a long one. I have a question for you. Sure. Are you trolling
Marco
PERSON
or the Bears when you put that out? I mean, honestly, I'm not, no, no, no, and I, I mean, He's Is the consistent ball and his view has not been very rangy in terms of it's volatility. Very sweet. Right? Absolutely valuable. Forecast will be wrong. I'm not here to say that anyone's forecast will be right by definition. It's just a forecast. Lightning radar. I'm just here to work through different processes and different ways of thinking different framework from
Northwestern
ORG
. They both feel they both sound very vulnerable
this morning
TIME
. I also as I Hey Facebook Recovery in
China
GPE
. To controversial. There's a fly separately. It's a controversial point. That's it. Hey Facebook yes. Bullish person to come in and absorb it. Here from everyone. My position Fit your narrative to fit my face. Hey Facebook So we're having
Jack
PERSON
's mall. Features unchanged on the
SMP
ORG
basically unchanged across the board here a bit more euro weakness
99 23
DATE
. Keeping you up to date with the news farm around the world with the
first
ORDINAL
word and wish he could the
US
GPE
says
State
ORG
department spokesman says
Aran
GPE
has appeared to drop some of its quote non-starter demands the
Biden
PERSON
administration continues to review the
EU
ORG
's latest proposal to arriving the agreement curbing
Iran
GPE
's nuclear program. Has collectively placed a big short across future for a key overnight rate that
Inline
PERSON
with the feds benchmark of that position will benefit if Bed Chesher and
Powell
PERSON
effectively rules out a doubleish pivot when he speaks at this
week
DATE
's symposium. Price of
US
GPE
natural gas rose above a $
10
MONEY
per
one 1 million
CARDINAL
BTUs for the
first
ORDINAL
time since
2008
DATE
that extends a rally driven by concerns that global stockpiles aren't enough to meet
winter
DATE
demand in the
US
GPE
inventory they're well below normal after
summer
DATE
heat boosted electricity demand meanwhile production has grown only modestly And
Macy
ORG
's has cut it's profit outlook for
the full year
DATE
the guidance missed the average unless estimate still the department store operator also posted
second
ORDINAL
quarter
DATE
earnings that were better than expected like its peers
Mac Contending
ORG
with shifting cuz you are preferences and shrinking budgets at a time of
decades
DATE
high implation global news 28 powered by
more than 2700
CARDINAL
journalists and analysts in
more than 120
CARDINAL
countries Be back.
This has been back. When I started I had no idea it was gonna turn into this. Empire. Hustling And just building, building it, building it. Yeah, I think about a person that was homeless at
one
CARDINAL
point. Didn't really have any money coming in. The fact that this person was relentless and just determined to succeed and not let rock bottom define him as an individual. I can take things and put them together and take them apart and make them better and put them back together I respect the crowd so I don't wanna minimize and disrespect the value of each step of the craft and do by machine what should be done by hand Do you see that coming
Taiwan
GPE
and
Cuts
PERSON
to come from. We will not just cut and run with unmatched breach and resources
More than 120
CARDINAL
countries.
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TIME
a day. World of politics to the world of business. If you do any kind of business in this country there's a pretty good chance that you're gonna see that business registered in
Delaware
GPE
. Why? Because that's where you do it. And our point was
Wyoming
GPE
can be that venue for blockchain enterprise for crypto Freedom we want that individuality and that's a common theme that brings together bipartisan support for this and
Wyoming
GPE
. We wanna make sure that people understand especially in
Wyoming
GPE
but as
United States
GPE
of the whole, this trend is coming. It's not going to stop. Cryptocurrency version of
Silicon Valley
LOC
. Individualism the independence and the ability to really get things done for yourself and control your own destiny. You get that from a blockchain and you don't get that without it. Pricing is the pricing for significant rate cuts. I think it could be
a couple of years
DATE
. I mean, really get through the, you get to the, if
Significant rate cuts. I think it could be
a couple of years
DATE
. I mean, really get to the, you get to the, you know, mid threes or or maybe even a little bit higher and then, then, you stay there. Target call from Thanks a chief economist fantastic to catch up with him early this with
Tom Keen
PERSON
and
Lisa Brammer
PERSON
some
Jonathan Farrow
PERSON
your market shaping up as follows on a
SMP
ORG
positive a
10th
ORDINAL
of one% on the last that 100 up by
12
CARDINAL
. Yields basically the unchanged down almost the basis point on
a 10 year three. 0072
DATE
. The trend over
the last couple of weeks
DATE
though higher at the front end will pick up on that a little bit Here we go
4 days
DATE
a weakness for the euro again negative
016%
PERCENT
. And the
PMI
ORG
is out of
Europe
LOC
this morning
TIME
not tremendous not terrific pretty ugly looking at And not just for the euros own time but for the
UK
GPE
as well. It really historic moment
Stephen
PERSON
under to join us in a moment right now on
DXY
ORG
the blended large captain large country index critical Pretty what do you have? Yeah,
Tom
PERSON
. We're looking at the
DXY
ORG
chart because of that, perhaps, a little bit extra waiting towards the euro. That's really seems to be what's driving the entire market. As you see, the dollar straight story, there are ripple effects into the stock market into the commodity market. Am I trying to the day goes back and looks
DXY
ORG
going back to
2007
DATE
. We're doing it on log scale and we're also looking at the slope of the last time you saw this kind of acceleration in the dollars. Not just about the Last time you saw it was in
2014
DATE
and
2008
DATE
what's interesting here
Tom
PERSON
is that those were the
two
CARDINAL
time periods where you saw some significant commodity pressure which brings me back to the
Europe
LOC
store it really is all about the natural gas the oil story that is now press So when we think about that dollar tending to where commandees well it works the other way around two tom So much. The character of surveillance is simply we wanna talk to the best people we can find and we're honored when they come on on short notice. So, he interrupts
this morning
TIME
with standard charter bank. Their global head of
Gten FX
ORG
research
Stephen Joins
PERSON
us on your foreign exchange space.
Steve
PERSON
, let me cut to the chase. What is the character that nature of this historic bout of Euro weakness Well, I agree that it's largely that natural gas story. I mean, you've seen them in in
recent days
DATE
,
the recent weeks
DATE
move pretty much together with
Europe
LOC
. There's a broader global story that the market is panicking about So that your power will say
Jackson Bowl
GPE
. And so, you know, Euro has
two
CARDINAL
strikes against it and which is why it went through parody so quickly.
Steve
PERSON
is the
ECP
ORG
got a role to play here. You know, like, you know,
Greek
NORP
tragedy, there's just not that much that they can do. There's destiny, that's approaching. Yeah, the economy is weak, the, you know, when we talk about supply chain disruptions, we we're not getting our exercise bikes, when they talk They're not able to heat their homes. That's really On sentiments in the Euro in the ECB doesn't have a tour to address it. The
UK
GPE
inflation numbers
last week
DATE
kind of you know I think let people on the market to say why is
Europe
LOC
different and what can ACB do about it and and the market then when you see way sterling is trading and your is trading markets really punishing What's the optimal way to approach the The
UK
GPE
is in at the moment. The situation the ECB is in. It's a very tough situation. I I think that when so much in supply shocks. You you know it's your Central Bank you want to try and smooth your response. The, you know, when you don't know what the duration of supply chalk is going to be, you're really working in the dark. So, I think they'll probably hike less than they should.
Next year
DATE
if you know they come out of the winter and the energy situation is more clear they'll probably hike faster and that could actually give the euros some some legs in
2023
DATE
but
this year
DATE
I think it's moving very cautiously See if you're talking about us.
Faster that could actually
Euro
PRODUCT
some some legs in
2023
DATE
but
this year
DATE
I think it's moving very cautiously
Steven
PERSON
you were talking about how supply chain disruptions have caused the people in the
US
GPE
to worry about when they get their exercise equipment but in
Europe
LOC
we're worried about how to heat your Start to experience something more similar to the
European
NORP
angst and this goes to this idea of divergence how far the
US
GPE
economy can diverge from the
European
NORP
fate. Commodity Can extend for a long time. We might have to pay more For our energy but we we're going to have it I think the, you know,
European
NORP
situation, if it's very cold
winter
DATE
And if the, you know, accommodation to increase supply doesn't occur. It could happen, you know, it could be an extended divergence. It's not our baseline but Could become if it could escalate beyond where people are currently expecting. Well, you know, you're seeing different currencies react differently. Like, you know,
Ozzy Kiwi
PERSON
,
last week
DATE
, you know, they've done where they like everybody else, not They don't have that kind of exposure. You have the end that's done reasonably well. Again, you know, they they're benefiting from oil prices going down, you know, the natural gas situation isn't this dire for them? Hey hey I think it's horses for horses and then you have you set a currency it's like you know
Mexico
GPE
Brazil
GPE
some of the EM currencies where interest rates are high so there's a buffer against
fed
ORG
hockey so I don't think you know I I take it to
Feders Hawkins
ORG
it's going to be a broad dollar move we we think it's gonna be limited but you know I think there are different you know circles of curre That will respond differently depending on their vulnerabilities and in some cases their strengths
Steve
PERSON
have you had to take a bet on the next
three%
GPE
on euro dollar High or lower weaker stronger won't you place it? I think the risk is to downside. But if you're asking me that question in
January
DATE
, it'd probably say to the upside.
Steve
PERSON
awesome to catch up
Steve England
PERSON
a standard charted thing really putting it quite simply about the difficulty that
Europe
LOC
is in right now
Edgie
PERSON
and Danny if you had any research published earlier this morning and this is important it's not just
Us
GPE
economy holding gone. Profits will hold on in the face of what's happening in
Europe
LOC
and he said this a severe recession in
Europe
LOC
might not cause a recession in the
US
GPE
but it certainly would depress the earnings of many
US
GPE
corporations it would strengthen the
US
GPE
dollar further which would also depress earnings of
US
GPE
In
Europe
LOC
. What the economy will take
Last quarter
DATE
maybe and I defer here to someone like
Julie
PERSON
and Emmanuel where we're bailed out by strong nominal GDP better revenues at
Massa
PERSON
but yeah I I agree John it can be Forward. I wonder how you gain that out. John, I'm
Dazzled
NORP
and you did so well with
Liverpool
ORG
man you that I I wanna do soccer
Tuesday
DATE
here with John folks it's it's it's it mean the
United Kingdom
GPE
stops for soccer
Tuesday
DATE
thanks to John and I wanna go to
Nottingham Tots
PERSON
oh like a week from now a long ways away and what I don't understand is Notting Has to play the care about cop whatever that is in the
Todd
PERSON
's don't. So they have to play an extra game in between. That's unfair. Thanks for sharing it. I'm reluctant to offer anything on football any more time. After my addiction further. It's gonna last
about a week
DATE
. Really? I'll keep it
Jackson
PERSON
whole focused into
the weekend
DATE
. Start your
Tuesday
DATE
.
So as you look back on your career what would you say is the best investment advice you've ever received? Probably the best investment advice that I never received. What do I live my whole life around is surround yourself with really good people I thought about it just today like I do many times you know What makes a great investor A great investment firm is comprised to people who are optimist. And pessimist. Realist. In the intersection of the debates that go Wash that wide range of personalities is where you find truth. It's part of the reason I'm so focused and freedom of expression. I see it my own four walls. The the robust and fullsome debates around how we commit our capital. What defines a good idea? What business is to build or pursue? That's what drives the success it's suited out. And I I've been very fortunate in life to have always had a group of friends who really pushed me who make me better And here I get to work with
three and a half
DATE
1000 colleagues who in their ways make me better each and every day and collectively As a team We've had the opportunity to have an incredibly impact on the financial landscape around the world. I have a baseline case going into
September
DATE
that is
50
CARDINAL
basis points that's where I've been since the last meeting but I have an open mind about whether
75
CARDINAL
going to be necessary 5075 doesn't just depend on a data point even an important one like the CPI I like to say that we're data depend We're not data point depending. Covering all things crypto the people the transactions and the technology People ask me all the time what is the key to being a really good ambassador I tell them it's a surround yourself with and work with the best investors you can find on
Bloomberg Wealth
PERSON
I'm gonna take you to meet the greatest investors in the world the people that I would like to have managing my money that Are the internet revolution I kicked up a lot of controversy declaring that the internet had been under hiked. I say the same thing
today
DATE
about the climate revolution. The job to bring inflation back down to the
two%
ORG
goal is far from accomplished. We do have inflation softening, we figured that the peak happened in
the second quarter
DATE
. Before being intellectually honest, we have to set it for some chopping as in volatility through
the end of the year
DATE
. It's gonna be a little bit choppy but overall, we're going back into growth market. Markets are not They're not always rational and they're just sometimes need to be given the alarm
about Good morning
TIME
everyone Jonathan It's
August
DATE
.
Good
morning
TIME
, everyone.
Jonathan Farrell
PERSON
,
Lisa Bramlinson
PERSON
,
Tom Keen
PERSON
, on radio, on television, It's
August
DATE
. This one's different.
Winter
DATE
's arrive never mind
winter
DATE
's coming the
PMI
ORG
on manufacturing in the
UK
GPE
at
46
DATE
in a Eurozone at
about 49
CARDINAL
that's some really weak economic data already time and these central banks are hiking into it open question mark it's on the move which data point matters to you John for an exchange
Couple of days
DATE
TK I think we're both on the same page on that front euro dollar can we get used to a euro dollar no south apparently at
99
CARDINAL
and maybe a
97
CARDINAL
if
Matt Hornback
PERSON
and
Morgan Stanley's
ORG
correct or
95
CARDINAL
if
Jordan Rochester
PERSON
overs right
Tom
PERSON
these are some big calls and they don't sound that big anymore we're just around the corner Governor Barely will travel to Will be interesting that photo shoot as they was out of the lodge across the vast acreage of the
Bloomberg TV
ORG
set to the split rail fence John where they look about upon the Buffalo and the bison What are pollen talk about TK weather gonna talk about we've gotta talk about Under control I think we sort of lost lost vision of the numbers we're talking about I lost an understanding yes He's talking
about 18%
PERCENT
on inflation in the
UK Natural
ORG
gas in
Europe
LOC
but
more than 40%
PERCENT
in
a single month
DATE
and taken out the
spring
DATE
peak and charts gone vertical in
the last Weeks
DATE
. I don't think we've really fully understood something really
Lisa
PERSON
is we address with the That is the consensus right now because the fed Go out and good conscience and say that inflation where it is is okay what it is crushing in your words the lower income families and it has been
Tom
PERSON
pretty consistently how how high they can hold those rates though to me is the key question if they go to
three and a half
DATE
Financial markets as we have gotten to know them over
the past few decades
DATE
. Emailed in and said
Tom
PERSON
shut up and get the feel so we're gonna do this quickly on the data and
John
PERSON
I'm gonna look at the equity market a rebound off that down negative 600
Yesterday
DATE
. Down futures right now,
John
PERSON
, up
46
DATE
. Thanks for that. What did you do
Tom
PERSON
yesterday
DATE
posted a picture of
James Milner
PERSON
shouting at
Virgil Van Dyke
PERSON
and I was
James Miller
PERSON
and you were
Van Dyke
PERSON
and I was screaming at you not to quote the doubt For
America
GPE
. Get to
Phil
PERSON
. Let's do the date here. We'll do it quickly. Your oil I'm gonna save us with a rebound $
92
MONEY
on
West Texas
LOC
intermediate
Brent $98
MONEY
a barrel. Philip,
Camporia
GPE
was portfolio manager
J. P. Morgan
PERSON
asset management for far more from
Mary Adres
PERSON
. He sent the sizes the JP
Morgan View
ORG
and at the bottom Research not
Phil
PERSON
. It's real simple. You say
America
GPE
's a place to be. State the case for an enduring investment scene in
America
GPE
. It's probably the more resilient economy to
the Gfour Central Bank
ORG
hiking that we're we've been talking about for
Couple of minutes
TIME
. Also, if you think about Friday and how much is that steak for
Friday
DATE
? I think
Lisa
PERSON
's right. They're gonna talk hawkishly but as far as what we have to do, which is invest in the capital market
Easter
ORG
incoming data. I think the notion that markets have to move a material amount based on comments on
Friday
DATE
. We think it's misplaced. So, why is that? 110, your treasuries are back to three%. That's
one
CARDINAL
,
two
CARDINAL
, there is not imminent easing priced in Priced in between now and
the end of this year
DATE
and
140
CARDINAL
basis points of tightening price
between now and the first quarter of next year
DATE
also if you think about how
This year
DATE
has been. It's been because there's been nowhere to hide, fixed income has been a very tough place to manage downside risk. We think those days are over. Why? Because
Difficult
this year
DATE
has been it's been because there's been nowhere to hide fixed income has been a very tough place to manage downside risk we think those days are over why because gas prices down
20
CARDINAL
Tom
PERSON
from
June
DATE
that's not the only thing you have airfares down you have owner's equivalent rent which is staying firm but the biggest drivers of inflation we think competit in the right direction and more importantly tips market is saying I mean that's a bigger surprise than what Until the end Yeah so the leadership in the equity market we think comes from the growth parts of the market that were completely beat up
this year
DATE
with rates and just to throw another another Yankee Reference in here if yogi barra the great yogi barrets not over till it's over if he Talking about the fixed income markets he'd be saying just because the feds raising rates doesn't mean rates need to rise and why is that it's because fixed income is back to where it should be as a ballast in a portfolio and if you're investing in the equity market Index was down
12%
PERCENT
at the worst point.
John
PERSON
, the worst year ever for the
Ag
ORG
was
1994
DATE
. Okay, and we were down not
two
CARDINAL
. Nine%. So, I think the that the the environment for investing looks so much more supportive
This year
DATE
because of the the sheer fundamental ability to manage risk which was missing for most of this
Underscore
PERSON
your point are you saying that people who think that markets have gotten ahead of themselves and that financial conditions have loosened too much for the feds comfort have gotten way too cute about it and that this Okay that the real easing that we've seen in financial conditions through the rally and equities through the rally and bonds is just fine. Yeah, I think so,
Lisa
PERSON
, I mean, you had financial conditions As measured by the golden financial conditions Obviously, off the tights. However, they should be off the tights if inflation peaked in
June
DATE
which is which is our hypothesis. You Under overstate
Lisa
PERSON
the effect of gas and commodity prices and how much pressure that takes off the federal reserve now Yeah so we're
eight and a half
DATE
now by
the end of next year 2023
DATE
if the tips market is right if our forecasts are right you're
between two and a half
DATE
and
three%
GPE
heading in the right direction now John that's why
140
CARDINAL
basis points of tightening still priced in. There's no victory declared here from
the Federal Reserve
ORG
. I just wanna be clear. They will continue to tighten. We just don't think that the pressure of them becoming more and more hawkish at for every meeting is the same as what it was in those really chaotic and frenetic moments and asset markets in
June
DATE
.
Phil
PERSON
, let's say that
Yan Hati
PERSON
is Some people have feared but holds them at
three and a half percent
DATE
for a prolonged period of time possibly
years
DATE
. How does that change your narrative? How does that change? Your thesis about growth equities. Yeah, that sounds like a
Brazilian
NORP
economy actually
Lisa
PERSON
to us if they're not imminently easing by imminently I mean in the back half of 2023 that means that this race Inflation rolling over or growth rolling over is one by growth in the resiliency of the
US
GPE
economy and I think if you look back at the last cycle
Lisa
PERSON
even if you have trend growth or a little bit Growth stocks A good environment for grow stocks what you can have is a is a revisit or retest of that anxiety from early in the summer when commodity prices Spiraling inflation out of control which puts
a ton
QUANTITY
of pressure on long duration equities or or mega capital stocks. So, it's still a sport of environment. Before we go, you can squeeze in the Take a dick at
the Red Sox
ORG
if you want. Not the
Mets
ORG
. Yeah. Right. Thank goodness. That's a good thing. Take anything to say on that. You can let that go. My childhood was
one
CARDINAL
of a review mirror. Yeah, it's very important to understand.
Six
CARDINAL
.
You gonna let that go It was one of a rear view mirror. It's very important to understand. Therapist. Seriously. Well thank you
Phil Camperelli JP Morgan
PERSON
asset management it's okay
Tom
PERSON
. To feel vulnerable. For for
Red Sox
ORG
baseball. Yeah, I feel it.
Frank Millzone
PERSON
was our
third
ORDINAL
bait or
third
ORDINAL
baseman and you know, we had
Ted
PERSON
. That's all we had. It's rads. Not good for
the Red Sox
ORG
, not good for living. They're rebuild. Mr.
Henry
PERSON
's having
a tough year
DATE
. Yeah, they're rebuilding. Okay. No. Alright. Let's get to the market. We'll let that go
Tom
PERSON
. You take a beat I'm unfocused. The essence of what
Phil
PERSON
saying here I guess it's that we go back to the old playbook. Yeah.
Bramo
ORG
. Rates will have to climb a little bit more but ultimately they're looking for inflation to fade and growth equities is where the leadership comes from dance hazooki of
Richard Bernstein
PERSON
on the show
last week
DATE
pushing back against that And capital group a number of big fixed income investors who say that this inflation is different it has a stickier feeling and it has a longer shelf life because of some of the structural changes with reshoring with onshore and with deglobilization or perhaps a shifting globalization how does
Fit
PRODUCT
into his thesis of rates not having to rise even if the
fed
ORG
raises rates right that we can go back to what we have once known Prices that you need to pay to get inflation back down to
two
CARDINAL
.
Three%
GPE
. And a lot of people are saying that it's gotta be pretty significant. That's the
Bill Dudley
PERSON
a point. That's the
Larry Summer's
PERSON
point saying we have to be honest about the pain that the economy has to suffer. You know, a lot of people disagree. It's a toxic It's a toxic group. It's always a toxic. It's a toxic, you know, toxic brew of tang. Do an okay TK So right. I've lost focus. Let's just crush my shoulder threads. It's coming very shortly. Gas prices in
America
GPE
. Should say gasoline crisis. There you go.
America
GPE
. Love it.
Great days
DATE
. Amazing.
73 days
DATE
. Please you've got seven I would watch
Sterling Like a Hawk Thanks
EVENT
for sharing.
New york
GPE
. Somebody get me in here near again so Keeping you up to date with news from around the world with the
first
ORDINAL
word I'm risky good chance sticking with that story gasoline prices in the
US
GPE
have now bought them for
70 days
DATE
in a row that is According to the auto club triple A pump prices are averaging $
389
MONEY
. A
gallon
CARDINAL
that is after reaching what was a record high of
around $five
MONEY
in
mid June
DATE
. Maybe coming to pause economic activity in the eurosone fallas
second month August
DATE
drop was driven by manufacturing still the post lockdown rebounding services like tourism almost ground to a halt consum Been hit by big jumps in both energy and food costs The
US
GPE
government reportedly has recovered
more than 300
CARDINAL
classified documents
Donald Trump
PERSON
, since he left office according to
the New York Times
ORG
, that includes papers returned in
January
DATE
, a
second
ORDINAL
set given to the
Department
ORG
in
June
DATE
and the document seized by the
FBI
ORG
at Mar a
Lago
LOC
the time says some of the documents came from the
CIA
ORG
and
the National Security Agency
ORG
. In
Malaysia
GPE
former premier
Naji
PERSON
and Brazak will serve a
12 year
DATE
prison sentence after losing his final appeal in a trial linked to the
multi-billion dollar
MONEY
one MDB scandal. The court walling will That must be held by
September 2023
DATE
Macy
ORG
's has cut it's profit outlook for
the full year
DATE
the guidance miss the average analyst estimate still the department store operator also posted
second
ORDINAL
quarter
DATE
earnings that were better than expected like its peers
Macy
ORG
's is contending
More than 120
CARDINAL
Countries. I'm really good at this. It's boomberg.
What do formula
one
CARDINAL
cars and your local supermarket have in common? Well, strange as it sounds, they might both be using the same technology. A lot of innovation has trickled down from the world of high tech engines and it hasn't just found a new life in road cars. F
one
CARDINAL
cars have long been thought of has the peak of cool in technology in them is also helping to cool down our produce aisles engineers from
Williams
PERSON
are using their knowledge from
nine
CARDINAL
constructors championships working with company air foil to help reduce the energy consumption of supermarkets the device they're building is based on the design of an
F one
PRODUCT
cars They estimate they can reduce supermarket energy consumption by
25%
PERCENT
one innovation from
F one
PRODUCT
is also helping hybrids reduce their carbon footprint that's curse or the kinetic energy recovery system and common parliaments is known as regenerative breaking and works Recovery system looking to harness the heat produce from breaking and the engine exhaust that could allow cars to generate the same power using
30%
PERCENT
less fuel. Climate change. The markets are preparing to close but the day is not over yet. Lot of volatility right now.
Upgra Mark
PERSON
it. It's gonna be short term. Access the financial world on demand Hear from leading economists Policy makers. And industry experts. Be alive and on demand webinars. Only from
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ORG
. Start exploring to see what's moving the markets. Visit
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Com webinars Economic policy symposium. Discuss the economic issues and solutions that keep the world's money moving We're talking about households.
We're talking about households that sing a
Quin Tuppling
PERSON
in their energy bills that normal household paying you know over a 1000 lb a month for electricity it's it's a shark that is not going to be able to be absorbed. If I don't arrive at
Jackson Hall
FAC
airport On
Wednesday evening
TIME
without that music plan
Tom
PERSON
and if you're not there ready to pick me up On horseback to take me to the hotel I'm gonna be very disappointed Expecting
before years ago
DATE
we that is around 2010 You know, we went up. We we and I went up. This is coming out of
the Jackson Hall Airport
FAC
and you go north up to
Jacksonville Valley
GPE
or get like the
third
ORDINAL
of the way halfway to
Jellystone National Park
LOC
and I know it's on the left and it's all a beautiful in that but we
Horseback
PERSON
thing and it just we retired by the time we got there we're talking about that's just a lot of work you know I just had with the symbolic cuts for this one
Tom
PERSON
. So maybe we do horseback too to the hotel from the airport. Just some of us think about it. You know. Right now interview of
the day
DATE
as we keep you informed as you did with
Steven England
PERSON
or standard chart The currency market to drift away from the real struggles in agony of
Europe
LOC
and hydrocarbons On what has been unspoken natural gas is a moonshot in
America
GPE
is well
Steve
PERSON
there is the spread out into
March
DATE
and
April
DATE
called the widow maker Which is the estimate of how low inventories will be How low will inventory be when the widow maker spread matters? Yeah absolutely
this Friday
DATE
is the difference between gas delivered for the final contract this
winter
DATE
approach and
winter
DATE
in the
first
ORDINAL
conflict of
next summer's
DATE
meatball season You're not spread right now in
the month of August
DATE
is trading as if we are in the dead of
winter
DATE
it is a clear signal about the market is betting that we're going to be short gas throughout this entire winter which is a problem because at the current rate we're entering
winter
DATE
with stocks at
about 200
CARDINAL
BCF below normal well below the Stocks are going to remain low. Problem for our
winter
DATE
heating bills because not only is natural gas prices tripled over
the last year
DATE
but
two
CARDINAL
oil stocks, heating oil stocks, here in the northeast, the
New York
GPE
harbor for
20 and a half percent
DATE
below normal
three 1 million barrels
QUANTITY
below normal which is going to be a problem for people who heat their homes with oil primarily in the northeas So, as we look ahead, we spread their telling us the market is short. Our product,
winter
DATE
product, enhanced higher bills
this winter
DATE
. Are we gonna run a jet fuel? I mean, what's the use of fuel in the northeast? I know it's a heating oil region and all that. But like our viewers and listeners supposed to say,
OMG
ORG
, it's gonna be like
Europe
LOC
. I'm not quite like
Europe
LOC
but we're certainly setting up the
Domino
PERSON
's to be like
Europe
LOC
in
a couple of years
DATE
. Of course, that translates into natural gas and right now, as we know,
Europe
LOC
is very short, natural gas, primarily because they put all of their eggs into the basket of a tyrant and that tyrant now is keeping supplies short That supply gap is being filled in part by
US
GPE
LNG
ORG
but back at
the start of the summer
DATE
we had a petrol excuse me a export facility that went down which accounts for
20%
PERCENT
of
US
GPE
exports of natural gas which primarily would go into
Europe
LOC
now that facility is going to come back online partially in
European
NORP
gas prices
yesterday
DATE
traded the equivalent Check this out and equivalent of $
470
MONEY
barrel crude oil. So, if you can explore natural gas, you are exporting everything you have right now. Facility went down that actually lowered prices in the
US
GPE
and when it goes back up people are expecting it to cause prices to go up because of what's going over to
Europe
LOC
are we pricing in a full seizure or a full closure in terms of
the North St one
LOC
Pipe I mean in a liquified natural gas flowing
Going over to
Europe
LOC
. Are we pricing in a full seizure or a full closure in terms of the
North St
LOC
one
CARDINAL
pipeline and the and a liquefied natural gas flowing from
Russia
GPE
to
Europe
LOC
? Yeah, to your point, yes, it's an excellent point and and that is I do believe part of what is happening in that back and that
March April
DATE
spread. I wanna put a cabinet out there. That
March April
DATE
spread is probably the most liquid spread in any commodity market. Highly traded, highly speculated on this was the spread that blew up a nine 1 billion Back in
2006
DATE
because they were playing games with it. Traditionally, mathematically statistically, what you tend to see is the
March
DATE
,
April
DATE
, the
March
DATE
contract tends to lower get weaker relative to the
April
DATE
contract as we go through
winter
DATE
. So, we should keep an eye on that but right now, the Because of your points with regards to the lack of supply both here in
the United States
GPE
and Madrain that will see because of your is keeping that back end of the spread very high and which means we're gonna see very again a high
winter
DATE
heating bills and likely high next
Air
ORG
conditioning and dulls because natural gas is such an important feed stock into electricity generally.
Steve
PERSON
, just quickly, I saw the headline from Opec Plus From the soundies I had no idea what they were talking about can you just digest that
one
CARDINAL
for me and translate it Yes. So what the salaries were saying essentially is there's a major disconnect in between the physical market the actual market that they they trade and the future's market the paper market which again Is very high in speculation. So, the future's market has been very low relative to what the salaries are seeing in the physical market. So, they came out
yesterday
DATE
with a pretty hawkish view which sent oil prices screaming higher that they might actually have to cut production I would really caught the market off guard but you know, interestingly enough, that headline came out
about 2 hours
TIME
after all the headlines were breaking that the west is about to make a deal with the
Iranians
NORP
. I'm very favorable terms to the
Iranians
NORP
which again is
Saudi
NORP
's are not very happy about so you tend to see a bullish or a
Headline
NORP
coming out of
Sally
PERSON
every time you hear a
Doubleish
NORP
headline coming out of
Iran
GPE
so it is a game of pushing pull on the G political 30 seconds but it's so important. I never know what to do with those of
Ryan
PERSON
headlines. Would they actually mean how close are we to a deal? I feel like we've been doing this now for
months
DATE
. Yeah, we have been doing it for
months
DATE
and my concern was The administration because there are dire states with regards to midterm elections in high end due prices. They were going to strike a deal with
Iran
GPE
. I'm still skeptical. You know, maybe it's a Political intentions are not a good stuff to keep on putting money into their state conference Yeah. So, I hope but probably we'll see a deal. Thank you. We go to start of the archives. Moving from the airport and they're up past moose wyoming here on beaver creek on their way to
Jackson Hall
FAC
. Will you drive it? Kathleen Yes. Do they have surround sound so we can play that music? Hey Facebook
Ken Griffin
PERSON
is moving both Citadel and Citadel Securities to
Miami
GPE
the scooper's broken by
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ORG
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What do you think of when you think of a battery For most it's what we used to power devices for both work and play and maybe even your car Over
the past few decades
DATE
, they've gotten way more powerful, long lasting, and affordable. But all of this is just a prologue to what the next batteries are going to do. Drive to a increasingly renewable power driven grid we also need to be able to store energy and release it later to cover those periods of weather intermittencies that are driving this new grid that we're in. It's a
multi-trillion dollar
MONEY
opportunity It's imperative that we figure out the solution here How we store energy on a massive scale is in many ways the central challenge of the fight to stop climate change.
Bloomberg
PERSON
Do you see that coming
24 hours
TIME
a day.
Bloomberg
PERSON
your global business authority.
Bloomberg Let's
PERSON
call it
two
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
yield higher by
three
CARDINAL
basis
305%
PERCENT
. On
a 10 year
DATE
and if you look at foreign exchange the dollar stronger again against
the Euro Euro Week
LAW
four
CARDINAL
straight session of this 99 22 And we saw that yesterday
Tom
PERSON
. Yeah. We're down a few tenths of
one%
ORG
on that currency pair. And then I think by
the end of the day
DATE
we had a move of
almost one
CARDINAL
full percentage point. For those keeping score at home I would also focus on
Dollar
MONEY
EN 137 50 for what it's done which is it hasn't moved. If yen was to give away
138
CARDINAL
boy with that change the dyna A lot exceptionally strong set of conversations
today
DATE
on how to use a golden sax joining us and we continue strong now with
Steven Rasciuto
ORG
to say he's chief
US
GPE
economy mister
Mizua Securi's
PERSON
barely describes their desk with
Dominic
ORG
constant
Stephen Rachute
PERSON
of folds in a massive macro view A calculus of GDP in
America
GPE
Steve Roscioto
PERSON
when you talk to
Dominique
NORP
in the
two
CARDINAL
you get together are we in recession The
NBA
ORG
.
Make a list of GDP in
America
GPE
Steve Roscioto
PERSON
when you talk to
Dominique
NORP
in the
two
CARDINAL
you get together are we in recession The
NBA
ORG
will not classify the recession to me you know two quarters of consecutive negative GDP reports you know implies you're in a recession the problem for people is going to be that this is gonna be a very shallow very long recession it's not Be the typical recessionary environment that we've seen in since
1990
DATE
which were credit cycles nor is it gonna be the typical inflation cycle that we'd experienced in the post war period up to the
1990
DATE
's. It's a Very different cycle. It's a long shallow side. Will be a more sustained view of interest rate strategy and not the foolishness of the when the rates come down. Oh that's exactly been our call long in here that we were basically looking at a dynamic of a pause not a pivot the question that we're still debating is it four% or is it something north of four% I think we have to give to Four% and the last time I was on we were talking about it we were pricing
three and a half
DATE
now we're pricing something in between the
three and a half
DATE
and the
four
CARDINAL
I think we'll get to the
four
CARDINAL
and the hopefully that will be the end but it may not be the end of Area. Market pricing is the pricing for significant rate cuts. I think it could be
a couple of years
DATE
. I mean, really get to the, you get to the, you know, mid threes or or maybe even a little bit higher and then, then, you stay Because I think while inflation will look a lot better
a year from now
DATE
I think it'll still be significantly above the target race to what and hold for how long race to
three three and a half percent
CARDINAL
and hold for
a couple of years
DATE
Steve
PERSON
would you think of that Well I I think we're gonna keep on moving higher than that. I don't think
three and a half
DATE
is the top. And nor do I think necessarily we're gonna hold it for
several years
DATE
. I think with this clearly an argument to be made that we're gonna hold it through
2023
CARDINAL
but where we going 20 Before is a very very different animal altogether cuz you have to look at what's happening in the currency and you have to look at what's happening with supply chain related issues and then you have to look at the demographics in the labor market environment and it's this tug of war that we're gonna see from a stronger currency supply chains easing up versus the Related pressures that are being dominated by the demographic issues in particular the reduction in the number of workers from the millennials to the generation Z which is now entering the labor force so we might wind up in an environment where
the federal reserve
ORG
has to sustain higher rates on a longer basis than we've seen in here for quite some But again what the starting point is is still an open book. Beyond
three and a half percent
DATE
. What's the end target and why especially if they planned then take them down to something lower over Return. What again do they plan to take it down to something lower over the longer term the real question is how does this labor market dynamic play out you can make a very very strong demographic argument that the labor Higher level of interest rates going forward. The question always is gonna be what level of rates will that be sustained at? But a quick return back to the near oh interest rate environment. That we've been anticipating is go or that people have been
Anticipating
ORG
is gonna require some kind of credit event to unfold in the economy and when you look at the underlying credit quality of the economy in general there's some pockets where we are concerned but an aggregate the balance each are still very very healthy so what is your top
fed
ORG
rate that you're kinda penciling in here how is that evolved
The past few months
DATE
What it survived a lot I mean over the entire period of of
2022
DATE
but but I do think four% is the near term target and I think once we get to four% we will pause for a time whether or not that's a pause to go higher or pause to continue to hold that level on an ongoing basis that's where my thought
Steven
PERSON
side baseball if we've got
China
GPE
with subpar
China
GPE
gross the dynamic of exports minus imports how to
Steven
PERSON
side baseball if we
China
GPE
with subpar
China
GPE
gross Exports minus imports how does it change and what does that mean for chairman
Paul
PERSON
? We'll get that comes right back to the currency story because it's the supply chain dynamic. You have a slower global GDP environment clearly what's happening in
Europe
LOC
is creating a wider GDP output gap globally. You have a strong currency which will allow us to import those products on a more on
Competitive
PERSON
basis which will want to dampening domestic inflationary pressures and then you wind up with where does the services dominate over the goods portion of the equation and I think this is the reason why inflation is going to come down whether it'll get as quickly as the
fed
ORG
would like to see back to their target or not I think you'll get there I think it'll get there probably in
2024
DATE
I don't think it'll get there in
2023
DATE
my
first
ORDINAL
exercise
this morning
TIME
was to look at the
Bloomberg
GPE
financial conditions index for
the United States
GPE
for
Europe
LOC
and a note back over
30 years
DATE
that this is the
first
ORDINAL
time they've diverged so sharply Obviously there's a war in
Ukraine
GPE
which is What is
Bailey
FAC
say to
Powell
PERSON
or
Powell
PERSON
say to
Bailee
PERSON
on this immense transatlantic divide? Well I mean I I think the situation is the reverse of what we experienced in the
1970
DATE
's where the you know federal reserve chairman at the time
Paul Voker
PERSON
came back from an
IMF
ORDINAL
meeting and was forced to change monetary policy abruptly and cause you know one of the worst macro recessions inflation recessions we've seen In our history and I think all the problems on the currency side of the equation are really
European
NORP
problems and
Europe
LOC
has to address its issues. We can't fix its problem for them. And that's pretty much the same message that you know
Paul Volker
PERSON
got in reverse when he came back from the
IMF
ORDINAL
meeting in
79
CARDINAL
. Which was basically you have a problem with your currency. That's why your currency is going down. You have to fix your problem and I think
Pal
PERSON
has to push it right back on them. You've got a problem. You have to fix it. We can't fix it for And this is the different kind of FX war
Lisa
PERSON
we've been talking about through much of
this year
DATE
this is a big problem for
Europe
LOC
and it's kinda strange because
10 years ago
DATE
this is exactly what they were trying to engineer
a week ago
DATE
they couldn't get one they couldn't buy Now they've got
one
CARDINAL
dramatically weaker euro at a time that they aren't we don't want
one
CARDINAL
. Absolutely important inflation. How much those is also a problem for the
US
GPE
? And we haven't really talked about Which is how much of a pressure will this be on the balance sheets of companies that sell into
Europe
LOC
that have to deal with the headwinds from a stronger dollar I don't think people have gained that out sufficiently well the multinational is gonna have a problem
Untake
ORG
but that's a corporate profit story. What it means for the broader economy. The other issue that we've got here as well,
Steve
PERSON
. Thomas, important question, what does Governor
Bailey
PERSON
say to chairman
Powell
PERSON
? Governor
Bailee
PERSON
is seeing economic weakness right now. In a more pronounced way, then chairman
Powell
PERSON
is Hasn't seen
the year over year
DATE
peak inflation you've got him forecasting something close to
13%
PERCENT
you've got city saying it might be
18%
PERCENT
Steve
PERSON
isn't that the bigger difference right now the transatlantic divide is that the
US
GPE
might be able to take some very very small amount of comfort from this idea we might have seen peak
year
DATE
over
year
DATE
inflation for
Europe
LOC
and the
UK
GPE
is it still in their future Well again this comes down to the fact that you remember the way we broke the back of inflation here was not just a monetary policy scenario you know the supply side revolution failed in terms of many things but by breaking the back of labor through firing air traffic controllers we did a lot in terms of changing the labor market dyn Which was our problem back then. So again, you have to push the blame back just not on central bankers, central bankers have to push blame back on politicians and say, you have to correct what you've done from a policy standpoint that is put us into this And it is your responsibility now to take the steps that are necessary you can't expect central banks to solve all of the world's problems stay for sure
Steve
PERSON
, thank you sir. Looking ahead to an important meeting
later this week
DATE
in
Jackson
GPE
,
Hawaii
GPE
. Governor
Bailey
PERSON
will be there.
Tom
PERSON
and
Powell
PERSON
. Who's there for
ECB
ORG
,
Lisa
PERSON
? Yeah looking forward to that as well think we're gonna hear from all
three
CARDINAL
at some point
Tom
PERSON
. It's gonna be I I don't know what to make of it
Johnny
PERSON
I I just think
Schnabel. Yeah. Looking forward to that. As well. So we're gonna hear from all
three
CARDINAL
at some point
Tom
PERSON
. It's gonna be I I don't know what to make of it
Johnny
PERSON
I I just think if the market is here where is sterling where is Euro in
24 hours
TIME
where are they in
48 hours
TIME
you're gonna tell me that they're gonna have a normal dialogue with a
116
CARDINAL
lb I don't think so 98, you know, I'm we came close
this morning
TIME
. Yeah, I don't wanna oversell it. I don't wanna hype it. I mean, just you know, you and Lisa You know part of the way I don't Hey routine ourselves up for some market moves in
4 days
DATE
it makes a speech possibly more
Did
ORG
n't we ever thought? The
FX
ORG
channel is tremendously important. Because it's
Lisa
PERSON
said you're importing inflation. Arguably you would want a strong account seat.
European the Bank of England
ORG
and the ECB. They come buy one right now. And the complication they added complication it Really complex when you think about it this way is can you guarantee that a larger rate hike from the
UCB
ORG
or
the Bank of England
ORG
but actually lead to a stronger currency or we now just trading gross differentials
Lisa
PERSON
because it would hammer growth that's It would a lot of people seem to say because right now the weakness is not have anything to do with ECB policy it has to do with the ramifications of a natural gas price that is surge
more than 100%
PERCENT
in
the past few months
DATE
We'll be talking about horseback riding, how do you down to the opening bath? We won't, you know, we won't. Global investments in
David Leberts
PERSON
of
JP Morgan Asset Management
ORG
to guide you through to the opening bow I can't do that
Tom
PERSON
. Can you do that? I can't do that. Hoop like you do I'm a good hula hoop. I'm not. Why would I be a good Some of the stories I've heard John. I don't know what time it is. That makes so much sense. His wedding in
Italy
GPE
dresses a cowboy. Pictures
Cowboy
ORG
on
Thursday
DATE
Yeah you got a funding people. Spurs. Other dreams on. People are wiming a less prone to being offended by things like that. I I think they've got a high tolerance level Thanks so much. Features unchained they didn't welcome it in
Pulia
ORG
. What are you doing down here? Doctor Hey portal Let's go a little bit longer. We've got
about 50 seconds
TIME
if you wanna fill it. Got things to say. I got pivot. You know. Pivot. I I got pivot. I'm sorry. The gloom is out there and I'm listening to the bulls trying to discern what the bulls are saying. Well, I've given you the bullish fig from
Mark Show
PERSON
for a JP Morgan. He thinks that's one Would just Under
China
GPE
will pick up and get better. Of maybe we could use this music. Well, I would like
tomorrow
DATE
. What would like
tomorrow
DATE
is the music used on the promo to go out to the breaks Hoping that we'll stop. Hey Facebook I got nowhere maybe
flying burrito brothers
ORG
. From
New York City
GPE
this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
.
IPad
ORG
OS
16
CARDINAL
by
about a month
DATE
from
September
DATE
to
October
DATE
.
Apple
ORG
made the decision for a number of reasons Including a still buggy stage manager multitasking interface and in order to link the launch closer to the more similar MacOS
Ventura
GPE
. Still it's an unusual move In
2011
DATE
Has released it's new
iPhone
ORG
and
iPad
ORG
software updates simultaneously
each year
DATE
around
September
DATE
. By staggering the releases users may find some issues around compatibility with cross device features like retracting and editing messages and iMessage The new shared icon photo library in the new feature for transferring
FaceTime
ORG
calls between
iPhones
ORG
and
iPads
ORG
. It will also make it a bit harder for developers to launch apps that run on both the
iPad
ORG
and
iPhone
ORG
that require new APIs and features found across
iPad
ORG
OS
16
DATE
and iOS 16 Regardless it was still of course the right move Stage manager on
iPad
ORG
OS
16
DATE
is still quite buggy I don't find it particularly intuitive and it's not compatible with most iPads and many
third
ORDINAL
party apps on the App Store the feature clearly needs some more polish and complaints from consum About stage manager. We'll now no longer probably overshadow the earlier launch of the iPhone
14
CARDINAL
. When you think space you probably think One space agency that travels under the radar is easter. Which is surprising considering what the
European
NORP
space agency has achieved and how vice it is to the global space industry. Please collaborate with pretty much everybody who is involved in
Space Expiration
ORG
. But
Issa
PERSON
wants to be a leading force in furthering humanity's mission into space. Missions to
Mars
LOC
. We are going to have to learn, to live, and work off world in a different way. The place where we are going to learn to do that is on the moon. Can
Isa
ORG
help humanity take its next giant leap We had the choice of backing a brilliant card designer by the name of
Henrik Fisker
PERSON
. Ambitious slightly crazy entrepreneur by the name of
Musk
PERSON
. Roll. Remove the wrong decision. But
Tesla
ORG
did very very well and so did electric vehicles. What I'm most interesting and one of my most favorite people on the planet. His name is
John Dore
PERSON
. He's chairman of
Planner Perkins
ORG
, the author of Speed and Scale. It is a conversation with
David Rubert
PERSON
And I really can't say enough about that. Look for that
tonight
TIME
at
9 PM
TIME
.
Lisa Ramerson
PERSON
,
Tom Keen
PERSON
with mister
Rubenstein
PERSON
now. On a guy David,
John Door
PERSON
,
Intel
ORG
was
3000
CARDINAL
employees when he joined. It's now well over 100 1000 even That they have and what I find so interesting
David Rubenstein
PERSON
is this is a guy that's lived the boom of the young
The challenges that they have and what I find so interesting
David Rubenstein
PERSON
is this is a guy that's lived the boom of the young turks of silicon valley and now they have to make a generational shift what do you say about the challenges of a generational shift Our tech wonders. Wow he did incredible things in the internet era and he was an early backer of google and an early backer of
Amazon
ORG
and a result of that he's been able to make recently the largest gift in
San Francisco
GPE
$
one
MONEY
. 1 billion Create a sustainability school and that is the result of his really smart investment decisions during the internet era. Now, he's focused on climate change and that's his insole investment focus as well. He's giving a lot of money for philanthropically there but also he's now making investments in all kinds of companies that are likely to have Pack from climate change. What is he saying about the people that literally he burst? I'm absolutely fascinated. The shifted amazon, the shifts it google and on and on. How did he address this generational challenge of people who think they're different than
Colgate Palma
PERSON
or
John Deere
PERSON
? While clearly people in
Silicon Valley
LOC
who get money from firms like
Kliner Perkins John Door's
ORG
firm obviously have large egos and think that they're gonna change the world in some As they do in some cases they don't he's unusual in that he really really spends enormous amount of time trying to figure out how he can help these companies he doesn't just give a money but he's willing to work around the clock to make sure these companies succeed and that's what he did with
Amazon
ORG
and
Google And
ORG
had a big impact on them. Now, he's doing the same in the climate change era and I would say that he's motivated to do this and part because when his daughter,
one
CARDINAL
of his
two
CARDINAL
daughters watched inconvenient truth about the climate change problem, his daughter said to him, you Your generation screwed up this country and screwed up the world. What are you gonna do about fixing it? And said motivated him to actually do something about it And now that's what he's really dedicating the rest of his life to do. Over
the past year
DATE
, we've seen a little bit of a reversal in some of the efforts toward the greenification of the energy supply we've seen a reversion back to coal fossil fuels in the wake of some of the shortages in the and the
Russian
NORP
invasion of
Ukraine
GPE
. Did he talk it all Willingness to invest even more at a time when there is a more of a question about the importance of fossil fuels and not discounting them. While his view is we don't really have a choice right now or the planet is not gonna be able to be a survivable if we don't make changes in the way we generate energy for people on the face of the earth so he doesn't really think there Many people have probably said well climate change is something we can worry about in the future and we don't have to worry about conversion to renewable right now but that's not his view. He Is more urgent than ever and he has a very elaborate plan how we can convert our efforts now and using energy from carbon to renewable sources and he's quite passionate about it and that comes through in the interview. The
Versus
ORG
the profits and that has been something that a lot of people have been trying to discern especially with the ESG focus that hasn't always delivered in terms of the returns. How does he sort of purse us out? I understand the ideological drive that he has towards some of these causes but where does he look for the returns to come? Well remember he's looking the back small companies that are gonna grow into the Amazons and googles in the climate change area so when he backs the company it's gonna take
456 years
DATE
, or so before it might be a parent Whether it's gonna work or not but he thinks we really don't have a choice because if we keep doing what we're doing ultimately the planet won't be survivable and so he's very passionate about it more passionate than he probably was about the internet.
David Roomstone
PERSON
in a day-to-day grind of
David Rubenstein
PERSON
over
the years
DATE
.
Europe
LOC
have a
John Door
PERSON
why doesn't
Asia
LOC
have a
John Dora
PERSON
of course the backdrop here is a tobacco softbank but why is it just about
America
GPE
that we have
a John Door
PERSON
? Well, clearly,
America
GPE
is more entrepreneurial, I think than
Asia
LOC
and more entrepreneur than
Europe
LOC
. We have a much more bigger venture capital world than either
Europe
LOC
or
Asia
LOC
and I think
John Door
PERSON
is the person of a vacation Of what our venture capital world can do. It has a very talented people who've been trained as engineers.
Capital world and either
Europe
LOC
or
Asia
LOC
and I think
John Door
PERSON
is the person of a vacation of of what our adventure capital world can do. It has a very talented people who've been trained as engineers as as
John Door
PERSON
was Over
the years
DATE
but there are many other people like him and your corrective pointing out there aren't similar people are not very many of them in
Europe
LOC
or in
China
GPE
.
David
PERSON
, thank you so much. Congratulations on the support interview
tonight
TIME
. Thank you. PM.
David Stay
PERSON
with mister
Dora Planner
PERSON
at Brookets. Really looking forward to that. Moment to go
Steve
PERSON
or his colleague
Dominic Constom
WORK_OF_ART
is published at
Missouri
GPE
. I'm gonna call it a pre
Jackson
PERSON
whole note and
Lisa, Dominic Constant
ORG
doesn't mince note it means words rather within the dynamics he's always looking at. Is this That will further front load or is this a fed that will find some form of steady state that's the debate Gaming out system which we've been trying Terminal rate Unsustainable versus something that's needed for the inflation that we have. Investment rates helped in Bit more because her husband is pivot to higher quality but there is a concern and this is what we're talking with when he sees her about perhaps there's not gonna be the default cycle of your. However, if you get benchmark Rates that present an alternative then what is the argument to go into leveraged companies at a time where Dominic Constem and and and frankly
Steve Rascito
PERSON
were saying we could see a prolonged No. Companies that have to grow into their capital structure. More difficult to see. Major shout out here is we get ready to go to
Wyoming
GPE
and Qantas last night. We had a phone call as we're down
600
CARDINAL
points and the team blew up the show today to give you the best in conversation with
Angle
ORG
near a standard charter and doctor hotsy is a golden sax among others. Let me do a data check here to stagger into
the 9 o'clock hour
TIME
. We had green on the screen, a nice elevation, now red future's negative too, down futures,
negative 24
DATE
,
the Vix Doug
PRODUCT
gives me nothing
23
CARDINAL
. 8230 spread, very
Disinverts Basis
ORG
points well worth watching a story in foreign exchange the frontline
DXY
ORG
index
107108
DATE
stronger dollar
109
CARDINAL
right now Euro a oh.
9926
DATE
Sterling Farrells Brooks stay with us this is
Bloomberg
GPE
good
morning
TIME
.
When I started I had no idea it was gonna turn into this. Empire. I don't have any investor. All this is all money in. This is me going on hustling, bringing that money back, and just building, building it, building it, building it. Yeah, I think about a person that was homeless at
one
CARDINAL
point. Didn't really have any money coming in. The fact that this person was relentless and just determined to succeed and not let rock bottom define him as an individual. I can take things and put them together and take them apart and make them better and put them back together I respect the crowd so I don't wanna minimize and disrespect the value of each step of the crowd What should be done by hand. Doesn't just depend on a data point even an important
one
CARDINAL
Data
ORG
dependent we're not data point dependent People ask me all the time what is the key to being a really good investor? I tell them it's the surround yourself with and work with the best investors you can find. On
Bloomberg Wealth
PERSON
, I'm gonna take you to meet Greatest investors in the world. Would like to have managing my money that the start of the internet revolution I have kicked up a lot of controversy declaring that the internet had been under hyped. I say the same thing
today
DATE
about the climate revolution. Live from
New York City
GPE
this morning
TIME
.
A good morning
TIME
. Good
morning
TIME
. Give it a calm. After
Countdown
PERSON
to the open starts right now. Everything you need to get set for the start of
US
GPE
training. Live from
New York
GPE
we begin with EPSU winter is coming. You're going to see more headwinds. Hey
Concentrated
ORG
around
the winter months
DATE
. And flexing data headline data you know was disappointing That there is bad news ahead. Euro is beset with a very ugly menu of problems. Massive increases in headline inflation. Surging energy prices. Prices supply chain was. Recession. A mess there's a further downside risk the winter is coming
George Bori Emily Roland
PERSON
of
John Hancock investments Emily first
ORG
to you some people might argue
winter
DATE
's already arrived
Europe
LOC
. The S and P
500
CARDINAL
down
three
CARDINAL
. Four% in
2 days
DATE
. The Nasdaq down
about four and a half percent
CARDINAL
in
2 days
DATE
. Do you think reality is starting to bite again? I think it is in this big backup in
Boniels
LOC
that we've seen in the
US
GPE
really is a result of these elevated inflationary readings in
Europe
LOC
you know in the Over
10%
PERCENT
CPI you're seeing
German
NORP
PPI at the highest level in
70 years
DATE
a
37%
PERCENT
increase there causing this backup Which is a trickled over here to the
US
GPE
the 10 year
DATE
treasury now over
10%
PERCENT
and that's causing some challenges here to markets clearly
Europe
LOC
is is Likely in a recession.
Over 10%
PERCENT
and that's causing some challenges here to market clearly your business Likely in a recession already if not going there very shortly and we are seeing a really kind of diverging path of econ A girl is here with the
US
GPE
still holding up a stronger than the rest of the world but clearly some challenges here as far as the global growth picture goes
Last couple of months
DATE
wondering whether we've seen the low on the S and P 500 for the year back in
the middle of June
DATE
we've gotta work out whether we've seen the high on
a 2 year
DATE
yield wrap about a basis point
today
DATE
on
two
CARDINAL
's on ten's up
about five
CARDINAL
to north of
three%
GPE
on
a 2 year
DATE
332
George
PERSON
your thoughts on this
332
CARDINAL
the highs of the year on June
14
CARDINAL
of
345
CARDINAL
in today We get back to those kind of levels do you think? I think we can
John Jonathan
PERSON
but it's it's gonna take some some stronger data you know as we just mentioned you know the date is mixed it's very mixed both internationally and here domestically obviously the world is focused on inflation inflation everywhere inflation is still high that keeps the
fed
ORG
in play and that will continue to put Pressure on the front end of the curve but that that pressure is getting increasingly focused on the very front end of the curb and as we move out
2 years
DATE
beyond what you're finding is a little bit more of a range pattern for, you know, for the yield curve and so when we look at the curve, you know, twos, fives, tens, all the way out to
30
CARDINAL
. Kind of, you know, sort of three% plus or
minus around 25
CARDINAL
basis points. Seems like a range that we're gonna hold as we go into
September
DATE
and possibly even into
the end of the year
DATE
. We're seeing pockets of weakness but not not a collapse. You know, there's plenty of pressure. There's headwinds everywhere. We're looking for new headlines. We don't see a lot of new headlines. It's the old ones More and more persistent. The
one
CARDINAL
area of weakness that we see housing, housing in the
US
GPE
, very interest rate sensitive. You are seeing the housing data come down, coming well off the boil from a very, very strong market. That is one bit of new news. As we kinda go into
the end of the year
DATE
and the next new trajectory sort of ultimately emerges. JP
Morgan
PERSON
this morning is stuck with me he said just because the federal service racing interest rate doesn't mean rates have to go higher do you agree with that We actually do John. You know, we think that because the fat has made such aggressive use of forward guidance here. We've already seen a lot of the moves in in in bonds actually priced into the markets already and but we actually look at Economic indicators. A lot of, you know,
George
PERSON
made a great point that the date is very mixed right now but a lot of what the
Fed
ORG
is looking at and what markets are looking at are lagging economic data and John friends just don't let friends use lagging economic data Making investment decisions we wanna look at where the leading data is going and the conference board bleeding economic indic Now typically when the leading economic indicators are falling so are treasury yields because investors are looking for safer assets Continue to play out. So, we actually think that we'll see some choppiness and yields here again based on this mix, economic data, but ultimately, as Enter recession. We actually see yields moving lower. That's typically what happens and we do think that this time I will be the same. Page is
Max Kentner
PERSON
over at
HSBC
ORG
. We talked about his research
yesterday
DATE
. I'll share it with you again just in case you missed it. Our leading cyclical indicators all point to more broad base weakness in
the second half
DATE
with warning signs flashing for the housing market for the consumer and also increasingly for
Labor
ORG
markets too. Goes on to say we'd likely add to DM soft friends before sound There's another way of looking at this too. Comes from
Marco Kalanovich
PERSON
over a JP Morgan. He wrote
this yesterday
DATE
. Inflation will resolve on its own as distortions fade and likely drive a
fed
ORG
pivot a stronger
second
ORDINAL
half
CARDINAL
recovery in
China
GPE
Morgan. He wrote
this yesterday
DATE
. Inflation will resolve on its own as distortions fade and likely drive a
fed
ORG
pivot. A stronger
second
ORDINAL
half
CARDINAL
recovery in
China
GPE
should provide support for the global cycle in combination with still very low invest It creates a positive environment for risk assets. George, your thoughts on that. Just those
three
CARDINAL
points that the team over at
J. P. Morgan
PERSON
are making that inflation can result on Recovery in
China
GPE
to support the global cycle you combine that with low investor positioning and you've got a positive environment for risk assets to agree. Well I think it it's a very sophisticated On markets and and I would really we would really simplify that and and we'd say really since the beginning since
the middle of this year
DATE
The world has become a more bond friendly place. Inflation is still high but growth is slowing and central banks are moving aggressively to bring down inflation. Equals a more favorable environment for bond investors and so we think as we just heard you know that there are some relatively attractive opportunities in the bond market it's not quite the time to sort of go super long duration but taking through duration positions make a lot of sense selectively Credit which is also materially repriced taking again selective opportunities and so the prospect for positive total returns and fixed income we already saw
a very good month
DATE
in in
July
DATE
seeing also a reasonably reasonable
month
DATE
and in
August
DATE
we're we're likely to continue to see sort of ongoing improvements in the bond market As that data as the economic slowdown emerges and that to us is is pretty constructive. They're very sophisticated message that we just heard from from some of our colleagues and competitors but I think you can really be simplified down to You know, the world is just simply a more bond friendly place right now. Since you've been very diplomatic there,
George
PERSON
, maybe some strategy just getting too cute about the future. I'll try and keep things simple, Emily. If you're Particularly the long end. Is that complimented by a softer inflation story too? And what is that come from? Yeah, absolutely and by the way, just to simplify things even further, we've been going with the
#
CARDINAL
bonds and chill. Which basically means move up the capital structure, get paid in, come here, you know, you're getting
three
CARDINAL
to five%
Quality
ORG
bonds including investment grade corporate bonds and wait for this mini cycle that we've been experiencing since
2020
DATE
to continue to play out until we get into the recession. We do see John inflationary fears receding here. You know, we do believe it Poster to
two%
ORG
but we do ultimately see inflationary fears here turning to growth fears we have to remember that the
fed
ORG
is doing their job here to raise rates aggressively to dampen inflation and ultimately that's gonna turn into And destruction we're already seeing signs of that so we wanna be really mindful about that in terms of positioning across portfolios not only embracing bonds but also looking for higher quality more defensive assets in the
US
GPE
. Raise to what and hold for how long that's going to be a big part of the conversation with chairman
Powell Jackson
PERSON
hall Wyoming when we have that annual fed get together
later this week
DATE
Yahan
GPE
has yes of
Goldman
ORG
waiting on this Take a listen. Where I would disagree more with market pricing is the pricing for significant rate cuts. I think it could be
a couple of years
DATE
. I And then you stay there From now I think it'll still be significantly above the target.
George
PERSON
what do you make of that? Race
two
CARDINAL
hold for how long he's talking about three. Five% and maybe for
2 years
DATE
I mean it
Three three and a half percent
DATE
for an extended period of time is not a typical it's very similar to what we saw you know sort of prior to the credit crisis back in
2008
DATE
and so it seems like we're going back to sort of the old normal not a new normal and in sort of an old normal where you know hopefully inflation You know, we started coming back down to sort of more normalized levels around three% over
Normalized levels around three% over an extended period of time and you have
fed
ORG
policy that's you know sort of up around that sort of three% level so it it will take time to get there and and that's we I would agree With what we just heard is that you know sort of that expectation for rate cuts in
the second half of next year
DATE
Kind of seem a little less likely than what the market's pricing in but expecting you know sort of fed funds to
kinda
GPE
collapse teams teams kind of unlikely at this point and that you're likely to see kind of persistent inflation and and
a Three to three and a half percent
CARDINAL
for an extended period of time. Back to an old normal. A
George
ORG
's words. An old normal. Where would you suppose the leadership in this equity market comes from? Yeah, I think if you see, you know, raids elevated here that would, you know, speak to some of the leadership that we've seen year to day. You know, you see value stock Having an advantage here you look down in market cat maybe you see an advantage there as well but our view is actually that you know rates start to come down and the
fed
ORG
does cut in
2023
DATE
it takes we have to remember here that Hey Actually be filtered into the economy. We don't think that it's been fully reflected in the economic data yet. We don't think that it's fully reflected. In you know, really earnings data as well. So, as we
Watch
PERSON
that play out where we wanna be allocated our areas like quality which hasn't performed as well as we would have thought
this year
DATE
. So, companies with great balance sheets, more durable profi We expect to see a bid there. We still wanna own some value stocks. We wanna have some sicklicalities, some inflation protection, and the portfolio but I think And value can actually peacefully coexist in this environment.
Boris
PERSON
sticking with us features
this morning
TIME
down by
close to two
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
. Let's get you some movers. Here's
Abby
PERSON
. John, let's go beneath the surface. That relatively flat surface after
the worst 2 days
DATE
for the S and P 500 about 2 months and take a look at what's moving more burst up Hey shares are popping on a very solid
second quarter
DATE
off of the pre market highs that may have to do with the fact that they cut
the full year
DATE
view however on of course the familiar story of a bloated inventory big discounting it seems as though investors right now are taking the view that's more of a positive let's see
Brookfield
PERSON
management to invest up to
30 1 billion dollars
MONEY
in
Arizona
GPE
chip Lawsuit accusing the company That share price the the offer price of I believe
5420 dollar
MONEY
$
54
MONEY
and
20
CARDINAL
Let's keep an eye on that story just keeps going and then finally zoom plunging down
12
CARDINAL
. Four% down
83%
PERCENT
from it's
2020
DATE
peak John this of course after they cut the full year Forecast having to do with weakness, relative to their online business, offset a little bit by the phone, and enterprise, but it's clear that those pandemic trends are waning. Coming up the global energy crisis intensify.
Infrastructure
ORG
has been built in
Germany
GPE
and that is short time. We have a problem. That conversation I'm next.
Okay, so you're moving in on me quick. Distracting me with your fancy hands I'm going to deal with your night cuz it's really bothering me. Oh, my nights. Yeah. Yeah. What did you get up to this weekend? You know, just for robot stuff. Lot of chess. I was practicing for for you. I know you're pretty good. Oh I don't like that Hi we'll take this Put over here. Not cool. Alright, I will, I will concede. I can see Very good game. Well played. Thank you sir. Over
the past few weeks
DATE
has made it clear. It wants to go higher. It got a little spooked by the idea that geoporial potentials are rising. Everything you need to get set for the start of
US
GPE
trading
Bloomberg
PERSON
the open with
Jonathan Terrell
PERSON
. Drilling down in the numbers and preparing you as only
Bloomberg
PERSON
get
weekdays
DATE
on
Bloomberg
PERSON
.
This week
DATE
as the world watches inflation rise employment rebound
Coverage
ORG
starts
August 25
DATE
on
Bloomberg
PERSON
television and radio. We will go out of the use of oil in
the end of the year
DATE
and we are decreasing the imports.
Independent Germany
ORG
looking for alternative energy sources with searching prices crippling economic output boundums prime minister warning
the next five to 10
DATE
winters
five to 10
CARDINAL
will be challenging throughout
Europe
LOC
not gas prices searching across the globe a mid mountain concerns over stockpiles this is
US
GPE
gasoline prices We've now team coverage begins right now which acts at AMH here in
New York City
GPE
.
Jack
PERSON
, I wanna come to you. And I think this Oh so important i think we all have a relationship with a barrel of oil that we don't have with gas when you tell me the price of gas I don't really know what that means in the same way natural gas
Jack
PERSON
can you tell me just how bad things are in
Europe
LOC
with
winter
DATE
just around the corner Well that's absolutely right but I can tell you that people here in in
Europe
LOC
now really do have a relationship with the price of gas because we're all looking at our energy bills and beginning
Understand
GPE
quite how dramatically they're gonna increase. So, here in the
UK
GPE
, for example, the average energy bill, I mean, I can tell you my energy bill, for my
two
CARDINAL
bedroom house, costs
about 100 lb a month
CARDINAL
, goes up a bit of
winter
DATE
down a bit in
summer
DATE
, It's now projected to go up to
about 400 lb
CARDINAL
a month and could even be
500 lb a month
DATE
so that's you know one of one of the key bills that most people pay with looking now at really a Portion of the population you know even the quite well off middle classes now really struggling to pay that energy bills and that's being repeated across
Europe
LOC
depends a bit on different In different places where governments are taking a bigger part of the burden but we're heading for
winter
DATE
now where prices are gonna be eye watering the expensive you know you look at
There's a bit on different policies and different places where governments are taking a bigger part of the burden but we're heading for
winter
DATE
now where prices are gonna be eye watering the expensive you know you look at power prices across
Europe
LOC
and there's something like
10
CARDINAL
times the level They were before
this past year
DATE
And and not just prices but actually we're talking about shortages so you have the the finished grids
today
DATE
came out and started warning fins that there's a very real possibility of rolling blackouts
this winter
DATE
cos they're Not gonna have enough power to supply. Er domestic customers. Eject you said A winter. About your prime minister's talking
about five to 10
CARDINAL
of them.
Jack
PERSON
your response to that when you heard that I know I think that's I think that's right look but I think that we need to take things
one
CARDINAL
step at a time the
first
ORDINAL
issue is gonna be to get through
this winter
DATE
there's a real possibility of Outages across different countries in
Europe
LOC
It's absolutely the case that we've all got used to to to power prices, gas and power prices in
Europe
LOC
being pretty cheap, largely on the back of cheap
Russian
NORP
gas, over
the past 10, 15 years
DATE
. We're not gonna have that anymore. It's very unlikely. Whatever happens, whatever happens in the, in
the coming winter
DATE
, whatever happens in the war. I, it's very hard to see how we're gonna connect, continue to have very cheap power prices on the back of on the back of large supplies of Gas and so I think we need to get used to the fact that energy is gonna be much more expensive. MH we've had
70 days
DATE
with now of gasoline prices. Coming down. Reason to believe that we can continue this trand. Well there are some reason to believe that given the fact that you have
China
GPE
still in lockdown at the same time you you're over peak driving
season of this summer
DATE
but they're obviously are concerns because you can have switching in
Europe
LOC
if they're Natural gas. They could start switching using oil and also at
the end of the year
DATE
, those
European
NORP
sanctions on
Russian
NORP
crude start to kick in and it's not just barrels of oil, it's the shipping, it's the insurance. So, right now, the administration is going to the midterms with some very good wind in their That he thinks there's a disconnect between the physical market of barrels shipping across the sea as well as the financial market Paper markets that we track every day and the words that he said is that basically they could cut at any time. This is just a month since the president touched down in Jeda and now the
Saudi
NORP
's are pretty much putting out this idea that they might cut I have to say I was surprised to read that
yesterday
DATE
but I don't follow it as close as you do but that seemed ridiculous to me based on what we were calling for
a month or so ago
DATE
. AMH
Jack
PERSON
, wonderful as always.
George, Emily
ORG
, We just don't usually talk about in
Europe
LOC
going into
winter
DATE
and
PMI
ORG
is
this morning
TIME
manufacturing of the euros zone
49 seven
DATE
I think we had a
46
CARDINAL
handle on the
PMI
ORG
the
UK
GPE
Emily Roland just a final word on
Europe Difficult
LOC
is this gonna be for this economy and for this market? It's so challenging John and it's it's hard to have a conversation on the market implications when your heart just goes out to the folks that are struggling with these Ordinary prices here you know and I think what I was watching for
this morning
TIME
in the
PMI
ORG
data is there has been a bright side in
Europe
LOC
as it relates to the services sector tourism alive and well I know a lot of us Also moving lower
this morning
TIME
which is which is a challenge there. So, you know, from the investment standpoint, I do still think that there are opportunities overseas but we wanna be careful there. Give it Relative economic growth prospects there. George, I got
40 seconds
TIME
final words sir. Slow down in
Europe
LOC
really reinforces the the argument that the bond market should hold up in here both both government bond markets but also a certain to a certain extent selectively in the credit markets as well while there's some pressure there's obviously a lot of pressure on the economics the value in
European
NORP
credit is actually emerged Flag the
US
GPE
and while there's still a lot of fentivity to slow downs and growth you know pretty much the fundamentals look what we would call good enough for credit and so from that perspective from a bottom up perspective there's still good opportunities in
European
NORP
credit. Alongside.
Fundamentals look what we would call good enough for credit and so from that perspective from a bottom up perspective they're still good opportunities in
European
NORP
credit Catch up alongside Emily Road until the
two
CARDINAL
of you. Fantastic. Difficult. Complex issues for
Europe
LOC
. Coming up the
morning
TIME
calls in later. JP
Morgan
PERSON
's
David Lebavich
PERSON
, Anticipating EM to lead a synchronized rebounded stocks
next year
DATE
. Her conversation coming up. In terms of green funding. Has committed to doubling the amount of investments in so called green technologies. I think we need more than just pronouncements. We need real money backing, very innovative, startups, and innovative companies in this space. Capitalism. Society is facing, namely, that growth has been present but growth has not been force evenly distributed, but frankly speaking, it's hard to register to be incoming. If you don't have much income to begin with If the government and private sector could work together and collaborate to drive more in a innovative will startups that that can really drive the income growth that the
Keisha
GPE
government needs to redistribute Innovation money and power collide in silicone ballet and beyond.
Weekdays
DATE
at
5 PM
TIME
in
New York
GPE
and
2 PM
TIME
in
San Francisco
GPE
A few minutes
TIME
away from the opening bow this morning. Good
morning
TIME
. Future's basically unchanged on the S and P 500. Slightly softer on the Nasdaq after
two big days
DATE
of losses on both the S and P. And that's that
100
CARDINAL
. That's the price action. Here are your
morning
TIME
calls.
First
ORDINAL
up BTIG Dangrani zoom to neutral Without a price target expecting profitability to remain under pressure after it's cordly result. Positive channel checks and optimistic meetings with management
Fondy McQuary
ORG
. Advertising to recovering Q one of
next year
DATE
coming up
JP Morgan David's
ORG
making the case for
US
GPE
equities from
New York City
GPE
Is there still room for urbanomics to be carried out in full in the way that shinzo arbe imagined it. The economic situation that Prime Minister
Kishido
PERSON
faces
today
DATE
is very different from the one that I'll be
Shinzo
PERSON
or was faced with when he became prime minister
10 years ago
DATE
. Does
Japan
GPE
need a new policy? Is that what kishida has to learn or are there parts of this that he should hold on to? You could hold on to. I think the main challenge with
Japan
GPE
faces is demography. The population is Women are totally underused in the labor force especially educated women
One
CARDINAL
needs to think about increasing immigration or these are issues that I'll be trying to address but a lot more needs to be done to court and court revitalize
Japan
GPE
. People ask me all the time what is the key to being a really good investor can I tell them it's the surround yourself with and work with the best investors you can find on
Bloomberg Wealth
PERSON
I'm gonna take you to meet the greatest ambassadors in the world That I would like to have managing my money that the start of the internet revolution I kicked up a lot of controversy declaring that the internet had been under hyped. I say the same thing
today
DATE
about the climate revolution. It's a really reminder isn't it just how sensitive the markets are to any commentary about trade we did see some pressure on the
UN
ORG
we did see some pressure on the future that is now being reverse
24 seconds
TIME
away from the opening bar
this morning
TIME
. Good morning.
2 days
DATE
of losses.
Two big days
DATE
of losses on the S and P. Totaling up and mounting up to
about three
CARDINAL
. Five% call to
three
CARDINAL
.
Four
CARDINAL
even bigger on
the This morning
TIME
. Future slightly softer, negative about a
10th
ORDINAL
of one% on a SMP 500. Other than that, that
100
CARDINAL
down a little more but attempt to
one%
ORG
. It's right in a bounce. Switch to the board and get to the bond market. Your tire again. On
a 10 year
DATE
by
four
CARDINAL
basis points. The
three
CARDINAL
.
0535%
PERCENT
. Cutting through the three% level in
the last 24 hours
TIME
and breaking down
Parity on Euro dollar
ORG
99 42 and coming very close to a
98
CARDINAL
handle 92 30 up let's call it $
two
MONEY
positive
two
CARDINAL
. Two%
this morning
TIME
We open lower by
about a 10th
DATE
of one% on the S and P 500. Let's get you some movers. His
Katie
PERSON
. John, let's start with
Twitter
PERSON
because there's a lot of drama around this name. You had
Twitter
PERSON
's former head of security alleging in a complaint that quote there were egregious deficiencies Security protection
today
DATE
that they've subpoenaed that whistleblower that's of course after issuing a subpoena for
Yesterday
DATE
off by three% Moving on we've got some earnings to get to
Palo
GPE
out Networks rather. It's a cyber security firm. It reported a beat and raised
quarter
CARDINAL
and a sock split to boot shares higher by
about 10%
PERCENT
.
JD
GPE
. Com too. Revenue growth.
Beat
ORG
estimates at
Second
ORDINAL
biggest online retailer quieting some of those fears about a
Chinese
NORP
slowdown Least for a day
Chinese
NORP
internet
AVR
ORG
's broadly higher as a result and finally
Devin
PERSON
energy climbing from the bell that's after
US
GPE
natural gas touch For the
first
ORDINAL
time since
about 2008
DATE
that's good news early for the energy sector
John Devin
PERSON
's up
59%
PERCENT
yeah
today
DATE
there's a
Winner
PERSON
and
Katie
PERSON
thank you. This one's been a loser for
the last few years
DATE
. In a big way.
Macy
ORG
's. A loser
this morning
TIME
. If you're looking at the outlook getting cut, the stock out by
about two
CARDINAL
. Five%. This is the quote from the company. Continue to tieration of consumer discretionary spending in some of its categories and the level of Within the industry as well as the risks associated with the more pronounced macro Hey
Abby
PERSON
hey John well this
Within the industry as well as the risks associated with the more pronounced macro Hey John well this is an interesting one because we have such a mixed bag
this quarter
DATE
relative to retail and on the surface you would almost think that
Macy
ORG
's would be trading lower after cutting the forecast as you just mentioned but the stock is actually higher it was all over the map in the pre market down sharply then up as much as five% right now
Two
CARDINAL
. One% not bad for cutting the forecast but you may have really nailed that earlier saying that it's been a loser in
recent months
DATE
. The stock is down so much that bad expectations could be priced in so investors happy about the fact that they actually beat
the second quarter
DATE
expect Now some of it has to do with that weakness relative to consumers really not spending as much inflation but it's also that famili Having the right inventories for what people want. Now, relative to retail overall inflation is really cutting into it cuz it's pretty interesting,
John
PERSON
. If you take a look Retail sales out of
2020
DATE
on the rise but if you take a look at retail sales in yellow relative to inflation it's actually been declining since
March of 2021
DATE
so this is a big part of what
Macy
ORG
's is dealing with but right now investors with that stock up a little bit seem to think that they're up to the challenge. Well that moves stick.
Abby
PERSON
thank you. This move
this morning
TIME
Much if one I changed on the S and P
500
CARDINAL
energy advancing by
a little more
DATE
than
two%
ORG
information technology can you call this about back up by more than about a
10th
ORDINAL
of one% that's called it
two
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
high this morning it has been tough tough For the
Nasdaq
ORG
over
the last few days
DATE
the bears in charge amid the
fed
ORG
height jitters
Katie Lyons
PERSON
real yields back in charge On those inflation adjusted yields are really critical here. Now, of course, we had seen a bit of a rotation back toward tech and growth as yields have come in but as they've resumed their Trajectory in
recent days
DATE
that has led to
2 days
DATE
before
today
DATE
at
four and a half percent
DATE
losses on the Nasdaq 100 it's worse
2 days
DATE
going back to the depths of
mid June
DATE
and of course on
the year
DATE
so far we have the
10
CARDINAL
Result down
about 21
CARDINAL
year% to date even worse for the semiconductors off by
more than 27%
PERCENT
. Now, I mentioned that rever Some of the ground and had gained relative to growth that is the blue line there the Generally seem to track each other right now growth is starting to wane once again but as you mentioned John it really is that real yield that matters here that is perhaps the truest gauge Of borrowing cost if we can ever find one. Those are up
about 40
CARDINAL
basis points just on
the month of August
DATE
. So far and that of course threatens to undermine equity valuations more specifically Equity evaluations and eat into their relative attractive attraction to bonds
Johnny
PERSON
thank you they're pretty nice and really building on that
Michael O'Rourke
PERSON
of Jones trading saying the following despite the risk of environment inflation fear to prompt in bonds sounding and pushing yield tire as such long
Asian
NORP
growth equities are under pressure. You've seen it
all week
DATE
at a close. We did we really saw
yesterday
DATE
John sort of a really decent hair sell off. When you think about Long duration assets and like you mentioned the relationship to yields and really yields as
Katie
PERSON
just pointed out Kaylee just pointed out Say it's really interesting though that we're focused on some of the more speculative parts of the market when you think about this back index the
IPO
ORG
index and the more unprofitable companies the You're trying to get a little bit of a rebound But it is really been a choppy ride in
the last few weeks
DATE
. Now, we talked a lot about bad bath and beyond. There's some fundamental news. We think about some reports about being able
Suppliers
ORG
. To triple C from S and P global ratings but of course just really wrapped up in the meme stock as well some volatility let's say within this stock too but John it really All that. It really sort of has been sort of a macro global story, right? When you think about peak
detroit
GPE
Where we've been
a year ago
DATE
. It really has been coming down a lot across all of these more high beta place. So we've talked about More specular parts of the market the means these high growth areas but it really has been sort of this global narrative as well Tina looking forward to the closer that
Has been sort of the global narrative as well. Tina, looking forward to the closer that a bit later,
Taylor Rick's
PERSON
there breaking it down for you. Allow me to break down the market action right now. Not much price action, relative to the big moose we've seen over
the previous 2 days
DATE
. The S and P up by
Ellen
PERSON
more than a
10th
ORDINAL
of
one%
ORG
. Talked about where the leadership is coming from from energy this morning up
two
CARDINAL
. Seven%. Been so defensive over the previous few It's kind of the opposite
this morning
TIME
with staples, utilities, and
health care mac
ORG
and health care down by
about one four
CARDINAL
percentage point. The consensus view though is this one. Stocks set for chopping us into your rent. I do think that we're setting up for further volatility in the very short term. We'll continue General uncertainty about where prices are going. What happens if well prices start to rise? What's going to happen in winter? There is this risk of more holish
Rhetoric
ORG
from the feds from the central banks. There's a lot of risk that isn't in the market right now. That's a very challenging, near-term mix for risk assets. We have to set it for some shopping
The end of the year
DATE
. Joining us now is
David Levivich
PERSON
, a
JP Morgan
ORG
, David always good to catch up with you sir. Let's start there. Are you getting more constructive or less so as this year Grasses. So, I I think that from
a next 6 to 12 month
DATE
perspective, it's it's reasonable to kind of echo the the things that that Flew across the screen we think that volatility is going to persist I think that the underlying Well-induced. Forgive me for being the CIO of hindsight capital but clearly looking back to
June
DATE
that was the big opportunity to buy tech. You were more constructive on that. We talked about it,
David
PERSON
. What about now? After that rally off the
June
DATE
low and the weaknesses kick back in more recently. What about now? For investors to recognize is that the direction of travel for the economy right now is is towards one of slower growth and and slower growth implies lower rates lower rates as we know can help support multiples until I do think that while the clouds are looking Is that the old play book then
David Back
PERSON
to have we not broken out permanently into a new regime and I use that word permanently loosely of course but I'm talking about a new market regime with fresh leadership with different dynamics on the growth side of the inflation side. Do you think Go back to the old playbook. So, I I do think that we go back to the old playbook, right? I mean, I recognize it inflation isn't going to dissipate
overnight
TIME
. This is gonna be an Relatively modest inflation and that implies low rates importantly
the Particularly 90s
DATE
and the early
2000
DATE
's and I think one of the things that investors need to recognize Some of these companies can actually be relatively defensive yes we're struggling to figure out what's the right multiple to put on those earnings
today
DATE
but but those earnings to an extent have pro Be all weather over the course of the prior cycle. Hey David that's the destination right now we still have inflation
The direction of travel again is is is towards slower growth and that should inherently benefit those growth of your names. Right now we're still having inflation somewhere
between eight and nine%
CARDINAL
. That's the story right now to get it down to
two
CARDINAL
What's the GDP price we need to pay up to get inflation down to
two
CARDINAL
? So I think what what's interesting is if you look back over time it is very difficult to get the inflation genie back into the bottle without causing some sort of contraction or without Back into the bottle and importantly you're There's monetary drag The consumer has been beginning to come under pressure and so I do see a path where we don't necessarily have the soft landing It's good to have you with us. Positive not even a
10th
ORDINAL
of
one%
ORG
coming up disappointing data feeding global recession fierce In
Europe
LOC
you've got the gas issue there's nothing quite to the same degree that we have in the
US
GPE
but it's going to be a slow growth environment below trend the
fed
ORG
once below trend The latest
US
GPE
data up next. No one covers the world like
bloomberg
PERSON
. Seven% in
the coming months
DATE
do you see that coming true
24 hours
TIME
a day.
Bloomberg
PERSON
your global business authority. I went back and looked and very few secretaries of state in
the last 100 years
DATE
or maybe ever have really gone back in the government Why did you wanna come back in the government for any issue when you're if you've got
eight
CARDINAL
grandchildren you've got
two
CARDINAL
daughters you've got wonderful family why did you wanna come back and and go through this terrible process we have in
Washington
GPE
of getting things Consensus in getting people to agree what you wanna do. It's very simple. We're not in a good track right now. The world is not serious enough about reducing our admissions fast enough, David And the result is that the planner is gonna continue to evolve in reaction to what we human beings are doing to it. Through fossil fuels. Most of the emissions that are going up nowadays into the atmosphere and are creating this increase level of energy that comes from the ocean, goes into the storms, the floods, the rain, all of it is explainable and it's all linked to the changes we are creating on the planet. So, it's very simple. I wanted to come in because I think we have a real change.
Explainable and it's all linked to the changes we are creating on the planet So, it's very simple. I wanted to come in because I think we have a real chance now to make something happen and I think
Glasgow
PERSON
was a major step forward in the effort to do that. I think the
US
GPE
doesn't have quite the same degree of headwinds as as both
China
GPE
and
Europe
LOC
. In
Europe
LOC
you've got the gas issue. There's nothing quite to the same degree that we have in the
US
GPE
but it's going to be a slow growth environment The law trend the dead once below trend What are some terribly economic data out of
America
GPE
with more. Here's Appy. They're certainly is John. We're looking at a big miss here for the S and P five the S and P global
US
GPE
This PMI 44.
One
CARDINAL
that is deeply in contraction it's below the expectation of
49
DATE
.
Eight
CARDINAL
this is of course the preliminary reading for
August
DATE
and it's down from the Reading of
47
DATE
.
Three
CARDINAL
. There's no way to slice and dice that and make that look good. Especially since many are saying that
one
CARDINAL
reason that we may not be in a recession surface is
PMI
ORG
also miss at
51
CARDINAL
.
Three
CARDINAL
and the composite in at
45
DATE
now down for
a fourth month in a row
DATE
this is really pretty brutal data suggesting John that again we could be heading toward a recession with one
Caviar
ORG
. It hasn't exactly lined up with the
ISM
ORG
. So we'll see if that lines up with a much more follow dire but that is a big big miss to the downside
Abby
PERSON
. It it
Measure
WORK_OF_ART
there they tend to be larger companies so it's suggested the larger companies have more resiliency maybe a better ability to plan for a recessionary type environment so the smaller to midsize businesses they appear to be getting hit especially in the services sector but manufacturing not too far above contraction either but
Overall S
ORG
and P global
US
GPE
composite
PMI
ORG
they're preliminary reading for
the month of August
DATE
at 45 50 that is the demarcation between contraction and expansion the composite overall deeply in contraction no good not good at all thank you Tell me one thing it does line up with the dates are out of
Europe
LOC
that we got
this morning
TIME
we had a
49
CARDINAL
handle on manufacturing on the
PMI
ORG
and the
Euro
ORG
zone I think the
UK
GPE
was something like
46
DATE
the SMP global economy sent to
Harga
ORG
saying the following the numbers quote point to an economy and contraction during
the third quarter
DATE
the kind of output Our big scene across a range of sectors as economic weakness becomes more broad based in nature. Good friend of mine, good friend of ours,
Guy Johnson
PERSON
joined us out of
London
GPE
. Guy,
that day
DATE
to this morning, a both side of the
Atlantic
LOC
. Not great, is it? No, it's not great. Actually, I thought we were gonna have the the worst story to tell here,
John
PERSON
, but just looking at that services data On the the the numbers out of the states. Does make me wonder about that. Yes, Really really bad right now. If the
PMI
ORG
data is about momentum,
Europe
LOC
really doesn't have any. The headline number has come down pretty sharply
49
DATE
.
Two
CARDINAL
. This is the the headline comp number from
49
DATE
.
Nine
CARDINAL
in
July
DATE
. Manufacturing is bearing the that's probably the difference between the states and what we're watching over
Europe
LOC
but actually I think the
second
ORDINAL
derivative you look at what's happening with services John the numbers are not good there either are we're slowing down rapidly major economies are suffering
Germany
GPE
we all know is is kind of on point on this one but
France
GPE
is now slowing very very rapidly as well and the ECB is expected to tighten into this and that is the big Between previous cycles and this one. The ECB is expected to deliver
50
CARDINAL
basis points in terms of hikes in
September
DATE
. The question is where do you go from there? There is some silver lining to be found here John That is that some of the inflation components with this.
Is expected to deliver
50
CARDINAL
basis points in terms of hikes in
September
DATE
. The question is where do you go from there? There is some silver lining to be found here John and that is that some of the inflation components within these data are starting to to amirate a little bit but But it's only marginal at this point. Hey, guy. I'm looking forward to
Chica Ridge
GPE
and
about 10 minutes
TIME
does
Guy Leach
PERSON
you towards the
European
NORP
coast. Guy, thank you. Look at the move at the front sand. Bit delayed but yields lower by
three
CARDINAL
basis points now at the front and the 2 year
about 328
CARDINAL
. Equities picking up just a little bit on the Nasdaq off the back of some of that. I guess that might
a quarter
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
. David, you're back This. We're gonna tighten into some of this weakness. We'll start with
the United States
GPE
then we'll go to
Europe
LOC
. In the
US
GPE
David, what
Jamaica
GPE
that economic data
This morning
TIME
because I can tell you a different story from
1 day
DATE
to point to the next. So, obviously, a big miss in
the United States
GPE
and frankly, we've been somewhat surprised with the resilience of the As some of the higher frequency indicators we've been looking at things like jobless claims have been rolling over you know it looks to us that this was more question of when as opposed to a question of if and so Over the course of the We've got this weakness in
Europe
LOC
. We need to factor in as well. David,
John Denny
PERSON
. Much followed at
Giant Danny
ORG
if you had any research said the following a severe Might not cause a recession in the
US
GPE
but it certainly would depress the earnings of many
US
GPE
corporations. He went on to say would strengthen the
US
GPE
dollar Which would also depress earnings of
US
GPE
companies with sales in
Europe
LOC
. David, you factor in that into the parts of the market that you like and the parts of the market you wanna avoid? We we are. We think that the dollar issue is is one that is likely to continue to to play companies for the foreseeable few dry Around the world Over
the next 12 months
DATE
. We believe this is north of
50%
PERCENT
. You know, as Globally over the course of the coming Final question from me and I've asked this in different ways throughout
this morning
TIME
. Do you think we fully understand what it's about to happen in
Europe
LOC
later this winter based on incoming information? And I really really mean that. Do you think we fully understand it? Because when I hear forecast like
18%
PERCENT
CPI in the
UK
GPE
and people go wow that sounds like a big number. Do we actually understand what that could mean? To the
UK
GPE
economy to the euros on et cetera. Hey I I don't think that people really grasp the severity of this issue I think at
the end of the day
DATE
we've been very lucky over the better part of
the past 5 to 7 years
DATE
you know really ever since the fracking revolution back in
2015
DATE
we we've been very fortunate to have low energy prices you know effectively across the board and and that is a dynamic that is Consumer and there's a whole social aspect to this that we need Long term solution in in going green getting there overnight Big time. David, thank you.
David Libovitz
PERSON
there,
JP Morgan Asset Management
ORG
. Thank you sir. So, what have we got? We got data with a massive downsize surprise in the
US
GPE
. Yields down at the front end and we let out
a ton
QUANTITY
of oxygen out of that strong dollar trade. The dollar index rolling over negative
about a half
CARDINAL
of
one%
NORP
right now. Up next Program I'll get you to to the trading diary a snack
A ton
QUANTITY
of oxygen out of that strong dollar trade. The dollar index rolling over negative
about a half
CARDINAL
of
one%
NORP
right now. Up next on the program I'll get you to the trading diary. That's next. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
The
Indian
NORP
city of Jamnigar is a money making machine for
Asia
LOC
's richest man,
Mukesh Ambani
PERSON
. His company reliance has the world's biggest oil refinery complex here in the city.
Jamnagar
ORG
is also where
Ambani
PERSON
is making his newest bet. A
10 1 billion dollars
MONEY
investment in green energy. His ambition is closely aligned with the
Indian
NORP
government's plan to reach net oh emissions by
2070
DATE
. But
Barney
PERSON
is not alone.
India
GPE
's
second
ORDINAL
richest man
Galta Madani
PERSON
has committed
20 1 billion dollars
MONEY
of investment over
the next decade
DATE
. But
India
GPE
's massive dependencies on fossil fuels have some environmental applicants questioning the realism answerity of those green ambitions and those of its
two
CARDINAL
biggest billionaires. Hey Facebook Yes. Let's call it
26 minutes
TIME
soon equities running in the face some pretty ugly data out of
America
GPE
recoveries up
a quarter
CARDINAL
of one% on the
SMP
ORG
as yields pulling at the front end just to pick up on the Nasdaq by
about a half
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
we'll see if this sticks that's the price action hit your trading diary new home
Minneapolis
GPE
fed
ORG
president
Neil Cash
PERSON
Gary speaking at
7 PM Eastern Time
TIME
the best GDP and another round of job this claims on
Thursday
DATE
plus the feds annual
Jackson Hole
FAC
get together we're here from chairman
Pound
PERSON
on
Friday
DATE
and you get a ton of dated too we get you Mitch PC deflator and personal income and spending data too from
New York City
GPE
thank you for choosing
Bloom
NORP
TV this was the countdown to be open this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Okay so you moving in on me quick Straight to me with your fancy hands. I'm going to deal with your night cuz it's really bothering me. Oh, my nights. Yeah. Yeah To
this weekend
DATE
.
I'm going to deal with your night cuz it's really bothering me. Oh, my nights. Yeah. Yeah Up to
this weekend
DATE
. Lot of chess. For for you. Pretty good. Ooh I don't like that I will take this Put over here Not cool. Alright I will I will concede I can see Very good game. Well played. Thank you sir. You. The difference between missed opportunity And actionable intelligence. Strategic advice
Bloomberg Law
PERSON
offers an unmatched platform of analytics tools and business intelligence. All the help improve productivity mitigate risk and inform decision making for the comprehensive platform that helps you work smarter and faster the difference Bloomberg Law BSO now is your online home for
weekly
DATE
Boston Symphony Orchestra
ORG
and
Boston Pops
ORG
performances see new concerts that go behind the scenes plus a claimed archival concerts visit
PSO
ORG
. Org slash now with a music plays on BSO season sponsor
Bank of America
ORG
What is your base pace for
Italy
GPE
in terms of what happens
Pepsi
ORG
's number fever campaign in the
Philippines
GPE
has probably gone down in history as one of the biggest Mainly because of a human era that led To print more winning caps A plan Resulting chaos caused riots
Unrest
ORG
. Reporting this story took over a year and it resulted in me flying to
Manila
GPE
in the
Philippines
GPE
to meet unlucky winners. And to find out exactly what happened back then in the
1990
DATE
's. My name is
Jeff Mesh
PERSON
. I'm a journalist based in
Los Angeles
GPE
. I wrote the story for
Bloomberg
PERSON
business week about
Pepsi
ORG
's number fever campaign. The
Philippines
GPE
is a really interesting country. It's made up of
thousands
CARDINAL
of islands. It's also a country that's very heavily influenced by
America
GPE
.
Frank Sinatra
PERSON
music for example.
Pepsi Cola Coca Cola
ORG
. In the
1990
DATE
's it was everywhere.
Pepsi
ORG
and
Coca-Cola
ORG
were embroiled in what is now known as
the Kolar Wars
EVENT
. It was a fierce battle. Dominance. Number fever was already a really popular promotion. It had been rolled out in
America
GPE
to great success.
Pepsi
ORG
decided to roll it out internationally particularly in
Asia
LOC
. They thought it was the answer to their problems. They thought it could finally help them beat their biggest competitor. Hey I want I want
Newspaper Millionaire
PERSON
. A
one 1 million
QUANTITY
pesos or
$68 thousand
MONEY
doesn't sound like a lot now but in
1992
DATE
that was a phenomenal amount of money You've gotta remember that in the
Philippines
GPE
at the time the average
monthly
DATE
income was
about $100
MONEY
so Imaginations Number fever caught fire in the
Philippines
GPE
Kids were saving up their pocket money to buy a bottle of
Pepsi
ORG
.
Anyone's wildest imaginations Number fever caught fire in the Philip Kids were saving up their pocket money to buy a bottle of
Pepsi Squirreling
ORG
away all of the bottle caps in bags you would walk down the street and people were going through trash trying to find discarded bottle caps It was a national phenomenon
Pepsi
ORG
posted that
half
CARDINAL
the population of the
Philippines
GPE
was playing it.
Number five
CARDINAL
boosted
Pepsi
ORG
sales
every month
DATE
from
10 1 million dollars
MONEY
to
14 1 million dollars
MONEY
. It had a huge impact on
Pepsi
ORG
's bottom line. Number fever quickly became number hysteria Employers winning bottle caps. There was even some murders over overwinning bottle caps. People were fighting in the streets Over these caps. There was signs that they were going to be problems with number fever. Very early.
Pepsi
ORG
had rolled out the competition in
Chile
GPE
and a garbled facts had caused some kind of problem with the winning number. They'd announce the wrong one in
Chile Causing
GPE
riot there was signs that there could be big problems ahead They didn't keep their eye on the ball.
1992
DATE
perhaps he decided to extend the campaign in the
Philippines
GPE
and they announced that the competition would go on for
a few more weeks
DATE
.
One night
TIME
on the television news they announced the latest winning number.
349
CARDINAL
. The problem was Earlier campaigns so there were literally
hundreds of thousands
CARDINAL
of bottle caps with
349
CARDINAL
just floating around the
Philippines
GPE
Of
thousands
CARDINAL
of people all across the
Philippines
GPE
thousands
CARDINAL
of islands were finding winning bottle caps
349349
DATE
. Some people had
10
CARDINAL
lucky
349
CARDINAL
bottle caps People are dancing in the street celebrating My problems were over. It's still not certain exactly how many winners there were of lucky
349
CARDINAL
bottle caps but we know that
Pepsi
ORG
printed over
600 1000
QUANTITY
of them.
Pepsi
ORG
realized very early that there was a problem
Hundreds
CARDINAL
of people started arriving at their bottling plants with their lucky bottle caps They realize something was seriously wrong
Pepsi
ORG
tried to solve the problem by offering a small token donation to anyone that brought a lucky bottle cap to their bottling plan But it wasn't enough. People didn't want just a handful of pesos. People wanted their
one 1 million
CARDINAL
peso priors. Within
a year
DATE
Protest
LOC
and riots outside
Pepsi
ORG
factories would leave
dozens
CARDINAL
injured and
five
CARDINAL
people dead. At
one
CARDINAL
Pepsi
ORG
factory in the
Philippines
GPE
. A grenade was thrown through the window. It killed
three
CARDINAL
Pepsi
ORG
employees. Honestly to
Rosario
PERSON
was school teacher living near
Manila
GPE
in the
Philippines
GPE
She was one of the tragic victims of this whole thing. She was walking to a nearby store to buy some rice
1 day
DATE
when a monologue cocktail was thrown at a
Pepsi
ORG
truck And in a violent protest. It bounced under the truck and exploded. It killed her Innocent bystander who was just a child and injured many others. When I was in the
Philippines
GPE
, I tracked down
anesthesia
GPE
's daughter,
Cindy
ORG
, and her husband, Roll, It was clear to me that they were still very upset Whole thing. You know, a family had been ripped apart. By this competition. Told me that he'd never remarried. Told me that he'd gone some meat perhaps the executives after his wife was killed He was angry. He he said to them, you know, this wouldn't have happened if it wasn't for you. If it wasn't for number fever. The biggest revelation from my reporting Rumors that
Pepsi
ORG
was somehow involved in.
The biggest revelation from my reporting Rumors that
Pepsi
ORG
was somehow involved in bombing their own trucks. Found a newspaper report with a headline that said
Pepsi Goon's
ORG
Bomb their own trucks I visited the MBI the police department In the
Philippines
GPE
. To cause riots and to cause trouble In order to distabilize the situation and to frame Owners of the coalitions That were there were fighting them to try and curry favor I just thought that was that was so shocking and of course
Pepsi
ORG
denied it but Are that a company would be accused of bombing their own trucks? The contest had sparked so much anger in the
Philippines
GPE
because it landed at just this really weird time in the
Philippines
GPE
history. It was during a crazy election that was With allegations of fraud the
Philippines
GPE
was in a kind of love hate relationship with
America
GPE
They loved obviously the
American
NORP
aid and finances that was pouring into the country but at the same time they yerned for independence they wanted to be their own country.
Vicente Philadelphia
PERSON
A local preacher living in
Manila
GPE
and he hated the number fever campaign.
Delfiero
ORG
thought
Pepsi
ORG
's number fever campaign was just one of the many ways that
America
GPE
was asserting its dominance over a
third
ORDINAL
world country. He hated seeing his fellow countrymen get ripped off in his eyes. By this huge multinational
American
NORP
company. What's this? Rounded up
over 800
CARDINAL
winners of
349
CARDINAL
bottle caps I think got them all together to soon
Pepsi
ORG
For over
400 1 million dollars
MONEY
to be divided between those holders of lucky bottle caps
Del Fierro
PERSON
took money from some of the people who could afford it. They paid him
500
CARDINAL
pesos to help with legal fees. But for people who couldn't afford the the money he would just represent them Hey He flew to
America
GPE
And he hired to consumer lawyers here in
America
GPE
to take on
Pepsi
ORG
. He had a meeting, a
Pepsi
ORG
's had quarters to try and resolve the problem. But he said he wanted to take it all the way to the highest courts in
America
GPE
. When those cases were heard in
America
GPE
those courts decided that this was a problem that should be heard in the
Philippines
GPE
not in
America
GPE
. Back in the
Philippines
GPE
Del Fierro
PERSON
continued his case in the
Filipino
NORP
courts At
one
CARDINAL
stage there were arrest warrants handed out for
nine
CARDINAL
Pepsi
ORG
cola executives. Which he saw is a big victory. We don't know if those arrest warrants were ever upheld. But it made newspaper headlines across the country. There's been so much Hey kindly to
Del Fierro's
GPE
campaign
Tried
ORG
everything to shut him down They sued him for libel My father had to attend
three
CARDINAL
times a month for a branch
145
CARDINAL
and another heating for the brunch
113 also 2 days
DATE
a month Also there was a timer my father was hospital Otherwise We're not attending the judge will issue one at the festival My father passed away
January 13
DATE
when then after stay for almost After the death of my father I was inspired to do the website
After the death of my father I was inspired to do the website
Mexico
GPE
will be remembered for what they did to the consumer in the
Philippines
GPE
and to my father When I reached out to
Pepsi
ORG
for comment for this story To anyone who was working at
Pepsi
ORG
that was around in those days. They also said that during COVID-19 they didn't have access to their their documents about this but You know they were very they were very careful to say that they were sorry for everything that happened and we do know that
Pepsi
ORG
did try everything to try and make this right. The
Pepsi
ORG
number fever disaster Cost the company
millions
CARDINAL
. We know that they paid up to
10 1 million dollars
MONEY
in those goodwill payments But the financial effect After the disaster we know that
Pepsi
ORG
sales debt They were overtaken by
Coca Cola
ORG
again
Pepsi
ORG
's number fever disaster The legacy of that soft drink in the
Philippines
GPE
forever Some people have certain age won't touch it. For many people,
Pepsi
ORG
is a taboo word A lot of the people that I spoke to were still quite traumatized Experience by that Experience of winning a
one 1 million
QUANTITY
pesos losing it and then returning to their normal life in poverty in
Manila
GPE
The news of the Came out. It was a massive story in
Germany
GPE
. We are following some breaking news coming to us out of
Dortmund
GPE
in
Germany
GPE
. Outlets
three
CARDINAL
roadside explosions triggered at the same time
last night
TIME
as a coach left its hotel in a south of Dortmund public figures commented on a we should not Let them affect our our life. Whoever it was. The media echo went far beyond. Don't mind. I think it was front page news and every single big paper around
Europe
LOC
. Thought of like a terrorist attack and people were scared that throughout the city in
Dolphin
GPE
there was more tax to be happening
Investigators
PRODUCT
just after the bomb went off and the the players of the team were shell shocked the person who had masterminded the attack was actually sitting In the hotel
Steak
GPE
and sweet potatoes. My name is
Thomas Rogers
PERSON
. I'm the journalist who wrote the article. The get rich quick scheme that nearly killed a
German
NORP
soccer team. Don't mind is a midsize city in the western part of
Germany
GPE
and the state called
North Australia
LOC
and it's a former industrial city that's kinda fun on hard times in
the last few Decades
DATE
. It was severely bombed in the war. So the center of the city is quite stark. Some of the few high points includes it's soccer team. My name is
Aiken
ORG
. I'm a reporter with
Bloomberg News
ORG
and I'm a great fan of
Boris Airport
PERSON
.
Dorkman
GPE
fans are super loyal on all match
days
DATE
the entire city is in black and yellow it's like a religion I think more than
German
NORP
cities Soccer does play a Very large role in the identity of
Dortmund
GPE
.
More than
German
NORP
cities Soccer does play a Very large wall in the identity of
Dortmund
GPE
. In
October of 2000
DATE
the BBB Became the first team to honestly get to actually go public. Salaries for soccer players in
the Buenos League
ORG
have gone up very dramatically with such high prices they thought that by by going public they would be able to compete better with big teams like by unmunic. Unfortunately that didn't go too well. Don't bought too many expensive High wages and the club almost went bust in
2005
DATE
but the price of their shares it has sometimes gone up Mostly gone down since they made that decision So on
April 11 2017
DATE
Team was staying in a hotel on the outskirts of
Dortmund
GPE
. Match day is always special in
Auckland
GPE
. Everyone is looking forward. The team always meets in the same hotel ahead of matches. They stayed in this hotel in order to have a kind of a neutral space before games so that they could concentrate be a sort of isolated from distractions things like Everyone was pretty optimistic that a chance to go really far maybe into the finals. I was in the office and getting ready for match day was gonna meet with a friend a fellow dortman supporter in a pub as always the fans are very excited about matches on
that day
DATE
We're heading to play in
the quarter
DATE
final against
ASMO
ORG
. At signal
Idona Stadium
FAC
which is
Center of Dortmund
ORG
. Shortly before a
7 PM
TIME
the players of the team boarded their official team bus when the bus took off the parking lot of the hotel and turned on the street were
three three
CARDINAL
detonations
three
CARDINAL
bombs that exploded and hit the bus off
three
CARDINAL
explosions occurred close to the
Team
ORG
bus the B team bus had just left the hotel. The explosions destroyed
two
CARDINAL
windows in the rear part of the bus People jump to the ground but the fellow dolphin fan I was supposed to watch with he called me and said turn on turn on the TV that was an attack of the dolphin bus and I thought he was like there was impossible Some of the players screamed at the To keep driving as fast as possible because they were worried that People might storm the bus. Contained metal pins and the one had pierced a seat headrest under
Team
ORG
members the actual As they were just in parking the bus was actually eating steak and sweet potatoes at the hotel they just left
Authorities
ORG
are attempting to verify a letter left at the scene claiming jihadis were behind the attack because there have been a series of attacks by
Islamic
NORP
terrorists in
Germany
GPE
and
Europe
LOC
. There was widespread suspicion in the media that this was another
Islamic
NORP
terror attack.
Three
CARDINAL
letters were found at the site of the bombing that took credit for the attack on behalf of
Islamic
NORP
State there were however reasons to to to doubt this particular narrative would actually be a surprise if Isis were actually Of this this attack. Possibly could be employed by other groups like the far right wing to join shift the blame. The letters had some strange qualities. They were written in a strange
German
NORP
that used big sophisticated words but had basic grammar mistakes as if someone was native
German
NORP
speaker but pretending to be foreign person federally investigators have detained
one
CARDINAL
man suspected of links to
Islamist
NORP
terrorism
one
CARDINAL
of
two
CARDINAL
suspects whose apartments were raided
this morning
TIME
Shortly after the the bombing a man in
Austria
GPE
named
Rudolph
PERSON
who is a was a big
BBB
ORG
fan he Notice that something strange was going on on the stock market related to the team shares the emailed the lawyers of
BBB
ORG
who then
Just said something strange what's going on on the stock market related to the team shares Emailed the lawyers of
BBB
ORG
Then forwarded that email on to investigators. The email stated that someone had bought
60 1000
CARDINAL
BBB
ORG
put options wager that the value of the shares of the team would fall below a certain amount at a certain date Why would someone buy that ahead of a match and then Bombs go off. Something, something, something isn't right here. For the person to make money off of that, it require the stock to go down quite a bit, in a fairly short period of time, and it wouldn't just be The team losing match it would require something much bigger than that There was another big red flag about this purchase which is the fact that it had actually been made. Number
one
CARDINAL
on the day of the volume but also from an IP address that had been traced to the actual hotel where the bombing had taken place When
three
CARDINAL
explosions targeted the bus carrying the footballers on
April the 11th
DATE
written notes left at the scene claimed the attack was the work of
ISO
ORG
. The truth as is now alleged is remarkable. On
April 21
DATE
the police arrested a man in a
Southern German
NORP
city called Tubingan I was on his way to work and his name was an unlikely suspect because he had no known connections to the
Islamic
NORP
terror world he didn't seem Hey pharaoh extremist he didn't seem like a left wing extremist either he seemed to be a completely Unremarkable young man A
28 year
DATE
old
German Russian
NORP
man named only a sergei W stayed in the same hotel as the players on the night before the bombing he specifically requested an Room overlooking the bushes where the explosive devices were hidden. The media dissected why he would do that. What was his past? He Been inspired by the
2015
DATE
terror attack in
Paris
GPE
and he noticed that in the aftermath of the attack the stocks of
French
NORP
companies went down and he believed that if an attack took place that was directed at a specific company That the decrease in stock price for that company would be even more dramatic. It never occurred to anyone that someone would do that out of greed. A suspect bought
three
CARDINAL
different arivatives on the
Borsia Dortman
NORP
shares with all these derivatives he bet on falling shares. The suspect bought the majority of these financial products on
the 11th of April
DATE
. Of the attack. If the plot had been completed successful and the stock had reached a value of oh inner gold Made
up to โฌ570000
MONEY
with the equivalent of
about $608 thousand
MONEY
. Ultimately the plan Backfired the attacker
Court
ORG
he would be extremely quiet he usually kept his hands clasp together one of the lawyers actually commented that he had never A defendant acts so calmly
Dinner Gold
ORG
had served sometime in the
German
NORP
military. From that information and from online research she was able to figure out how to assemble remote detonated bombs that would do What he hoped to do. There were
a few days
DATE
of extremely emotional testimony Shooting the soccer players who describes doubting whether or not they could ever play another game again. It brought everything back up and it didn't quite help them to kinda process what was going on Throw it at all. He sat there Silent The big mystery that was swirling around the trial was the question of why
May
DATE
have simply done it because he wanted to impress a woman. Rebecca is a young woman who has a very troubled home life. She ultimately sees her relationship with vinegar as an opportunity to leave that troubled home.
Vinegar Gold
PERSON
is a
Russian
NORP
immigrant to
Germany
GPE
. He speaks with an accent.
In in jail in
Germany
GPE
The threats of an asteroid hitting earth is very real. If it's big enough it's also very final These are very very infrequent events. The probability is not oh though. A blinding flash of light streaking across the sky.
About 100 tons
QUANTITY
of space rock falls on earth every day. Most of it is so small. It burns up in our atmosphere. All lands unnoticed away from major populations. No human in
the past 1000 years
DATE
is known to have been killed by a meteorite And according to
Nasa
ORG
no large object is likely to strike the earth anytime in
the next several 100 years
DATE
. However, Is certain. Haven't found them all. There are
thousands
CARDINAL
out there We don't know where they are. There are a lot of asteroids in our solar system The number in the
billions
CARDINAL
. All over the world are working toward detecting and deflecting the most catastrophic of natural disasters. The race is on to find as many of these objects as we can. Potentially dangerous on all. I mean, I think it's something worth investing in. Sorry existence at stake right
Amy
PERSON
let's get this one out of the way it's probably the question you get asked the most but how scared should we be? Comments are a natural That's out there like a lot of other natural hazards. These are very very infrequent events. These collision events where
Object
ORG
actually impacts the
earth
LOC
. The most important thing that we need to know about asteroids is, you know, when the next impact is gonna happen and how bad it will be. What we know is that an object that's about say a kilometer across is capable causing very, very wide devastation across the planet. Really, truly global devastation. The object that wiped out the dinosaurs was somewhere in
Five
CARDINAL
to
10 km
QUANTITY
across. So, even bigger than that. At
a kilometer
QUANTITY
, it's still gonna be very bad and we'll have global effects. For objects that are capable of causing what I would call sort of regional damage kind of a large major metropolitan area a city and it's surrounding environments sort of around a hundredish meters it depends on the details of the composition and so for By the
1980
DATE
's
Nasa
ORG
was cataloging near earth objects. In
1994
DATE
Stargazers
PRODUCT
watched his comet shoemaker
Levy
PERSON
nine hit
Jupiter
LOC
. The resulting zone of chaos was estimated to be as large as the
earth
LOC
. In the event became a turning point in the search for asteroids and comets in our solar system. In
1998
DATE
Congress
ORG
task
Nasa
ORG
with binding
90%
PERCENT
of asteroids and comets
one km
QUANTITY
wide or larger. Soon after
Hollywood
GPE
blockbusters armageddon and deep impact for tension and fear to the masses The great news is that the vast majority
more than 90%
PERCENT
of all the really large one km near
five
CARDINAL
objects have been found the challenge now is working down to the smaller sizes that are Causing a lot of damage but they're just harder to spot because they're fainter. They're small. Can you give us a sense of how many are out there in our solar system We know that there are a lot of asteroids in our solar system.
Can you give us a sense of how many are out there in our solar system We know that there are a lot of asteroids in our solar system. The number in the
billions
CARDINAL
, most of them, however, are between
Mars
LOC
and
Jupiter
LOC
and what we call the main asteroid belt. This is a region of space where most of the
Australians
NORP
in the inner part of our are solar system live and they stay there for many billions of years. There is another
Somewhat
PERSON
close to the earth. And we call these near earth objects. We think that there are millions and millions of neuropathics that are out there in the total population. As of
today
DATE
, we know of sort of
around 2025
DATE
,
1000
CARDINAL
something like that When we first spot an object, we we really know very little about it. We just see something moving across the sky All you get is just sort of a handful of snapshots just enough to be able to tell that this isn't an asteroid that we've already seen before and then once we can calculate the distance to it we can now start to make predictions about it's true size is it large or is it small? So we have a lot of information that we have to get pretty quickly to really understand what's going on. Finding asteroids is just one piece of the puzzle.
Planetary
GPE
scientists are extremely skilled in determining the orbits and speeds of asteroids based on relatively small amounts of data.
Nasa
ORG
run simulations of the trajectories asteroids could take which is useful but time consuming A team of scientists in the
Netherlands
GPE
have found a way that could buy us more time. Our methods is very quick. So you can very quickly get an assessment of whether or not your objects is dangerous or not. If you look at the classical way of determining the danger of an asteroids it may take you know days of computing time on very big machines To to determine this this hazardousness the current problem is that there's this too many asteroids out there to us and a huge amount of computational power on all of them So the neural network allows us to focus on what really could go and Mimics the way the human brain operates to find underlying relationships in a set of data by training the network in this way you you train it in recognizing those objects that are most likely to hit the planets. And once it strains you can apply this network to all the unknown asteroids. And then you can make a selection and say hey this is these are the ones which appear to be having orbits similar to the ones which we know are hitting the planets. It doesn't mean that they do but it does it only means that they look very similar to once We know they do. What else did you find? Should we be particularly concerned about anything? That we did find is that our neural network was able to go and identify a handful of asteroids which weren't considered potentially hazardous that when we went into the gradient time they came Quite close to her. Which we're not detected before or not considered being engaged before her meeting they are potentially dangerous it's very hard to send you away
Kinda
PERSON
going forward in time and ask for it that's gonna hit earth because What the earth is really small And what space is really big and then you have to have very exact parameters to shoot an
astro
GPE
that goes and hits exactly earth. And then Simon had the ingenious idea of not even trying to do that and just launching the asteroids from her surface Backwards in time. It's very hard to make a hit So you need a lot of calculations which all end up in nothing. And the idea was then, like, well, let's all do that. This is basically what
Nasa
ORG
's doing. Now, she's taking an asteroid, making multiple copies of them, shooting them all for it in time, calculating their or And then see what fraction sort of gets close to earth. They'll even hitting earth but getting close to earth. And that they call it a potential impactor. So you calculate the
Charlotte
GPE
system forwards in time for let's say a 1000 years And then you launch asteroids from the surface as if they if you go forwards in time would fall on the surface you calculate them backwards due
today
DATE
And then you get your orbital parameters of
today
DATE
's
astro
GPE
to which you know will land on the planet. And those you can use as known infectors. Hey
And then you get your orbital parameters of
today
DATE
's
astro
GPE
to which you know will land on the planet. And those you can use as known infectors. Where perhaps telescopes and and other imaging tools can't. Absolutely. Since the observations get more complex. Complex becomes more complex and at some point you can't solve your problems analytically anymore and then there's where the computer comes in. Now, we have this train here on network. We have a way of calculating in
a fraction of a seconds
QUANTITY
. Whether not an estro, this potentially dangerous or not and therefore deserves more attention Or more time to spend on Really finding out if it is dangerous. When it comes to hunting asteroids time is critical. What we can do about a potentially hazardous object depends a great deal on what we know about it and how much time we have before the encounter We'd really like to find them on their
decades
DATE
away. Because the more time you have, the more options you have. And the less energy it takes to to move an object decide. It also means we might not have to resort to launching a nuclear warhead as an asteroid. Until recently, pretty much are only choice. That's an option of Think about just nudging it off. It's path a little bit with you know a massive object. A spacecraft. Let's say it's kind of like bowling if you will. You know if you have A long time or a long stretch of of runway in the lane just a very small twist on the on the bowling ball we'll make a big change in where it ultimately ends Another option it would be something Take a very big big massive spacecraft and you park it next to the And you use the force of gravity as a towing rig. That takes longer though. And you need to Send a pretty massive spacecraft and obviously depends a lot on how big they are straightest Other options start to get more and more complicated They range from painting one side of the object white color and painting the other side dark and then letting the pressure of lights or preturb absorb it. In a departure from the lab and computer simulations
Nasa
ORG
has real plans to rehearse kinetic impact deflection In
2021
DATE
the agency will launch dart the double asteroid redirection test mission which will intercept a
160
CARDINAL
m asteroid in
2022
DATE
Better to practice now before we have to deal with an actual threat. In the meantime, discovering asteroids is our best bet. Scientists and amateur astronomers around the world make up an informal network that survey the heavens. But that may not be enough
Nasa
ORG
wants more resources to map our solar system and better technology. We need to ramp up our network of sensors and also we need to just continue to strengthen our our network of international observers so that we can get follow up because we find these objects when they're dis All over the night sky. Once we get more observations, we get better data. We can make better predictions. It's the big impacts we have had in the last let's say
20 years
DATE
or
maybe 30 years
DATE
50 years Them. We haven't seen coming. So, the danger, the real danger I think comes from
Europe Church
ORG
. We don't know about. And not from your church, we do know about. This particular natural disaster like a lot of natural disasters in my climate changes are the problem of the global comments. So the thing that we risk collectively is that it's sort of then becomes nobody's problem Nobody takes over it the asteroids are all over the sky they just truly cross boundaries and borders with the seconds notice I mean I think it's something worth investing in. Sorry existence at stake right
The pandemic is affected everyone in different ways. Some past the time by baking.
Sourdough
GPE
bread do i need to say more Some chose to binge watch
Netflix
PERSON
Or maybe you started a garden oasis in your backyard. Next, I'm gonna put my
Susan
PERSON
.
Millions
CARDINAL
of others. Posting stocks that will
Boom
PERSON
. They wanted to uproot the financial industry. Here's a stock that can change your life. Up and I buy it and i just watch it until it stops going up and then i sell it. I have gained over
three 1 million dollars
MONEY
. I want some free money. You can overstate the online communities or social medias influence on financial markets. Inexperienced investors who discuss their plans on social media platform Reddit have shaken up the stock market in a big way. Video game retailing The revolutionary Anyone can play it. Trading. Nowadays you don't have to look a specific way you don't have to wear a specific clothes you don't have to be doing it from a trading floor on Wall St and like a high-rise building in in downtown
Manhattan
GPE
the narrative of what's driving the market is no longer being held in secret offices in
New York
GPE
in
Boston Privilege
ORG
people talking to other privilege people. It's right out in the open. It's on
Twitter
PRODUCT
. It's unread it. From brokerage apps to discord channels and subreddits to
TikTok Finfluencers
ORG
.
One
CARDINAL
of the last holdouts in the world of disruption.
Finance
ORG
is next in line. Investing should be as you pick with us as shopping online That's
Vlad Tenev
FAC
the CEO of
Robin Hood
PERSON
the online brokerage app talking about how he wants his app to disrupt the world of stock trading like
Amazon
ORG
disrupted the world of home shopping. And I think that speaks to exactly the mission that a platform might As which is to democratize investing.
Robin Hood
PERSON
was started in
2013
DATE
by Vlad tenniv and by jubat in where else silicon
Valley
LOC
as an alternative to the big brokerages but with
one
CARDINAL
big difference Building the social network around finances for people they realize that there was a gap in the market and that free trading could become something that they could bring to the markets they could disrupt the industry Well, no fe trading is industry standard
today
DATE
. It was unheard of when it was
first
ORDINAL
to introduced. Brokerage industry was really innovative when they came on the scene
10 15 years ago
DATE
but they kinda stopped innovating where you haven't seen those commissions come down beyond
five
CARDINAL
or 6 or 7 dollars.
Robin Hood
PERSON
think that by offering oh commission that they're gonna push people onto this platform and on top of note trading the customers
Robin Hood
PERSON
was recording have been long overlooked in the world of it. Finance. So the typical customer of a trial.
And on top of no fee trading the customers
robin hood
PERSON
was recording had been long overlooked in the world of fine so the typical customer of a
Charles Schwab
PERSON
for example is putting a lot more money in that brokerage account than the typical customer at
Robin Hood
PERSON
even
today
DATE
with all of its popularity the median account size
About $240
MONEY
. In the swaps Of the world Look down their nose it does kind of accounts I don't want a $
1000
MONEY
account they're just a headache I want $100 thousand account That's different than every other single brokerage platform is how easy it is to use The design of the robin hood app really has in mind a user who might be coming out this absolutely cold The fonts are very well sized. The shapes, the colors, all of that is something that the founders of
Robin Hood
PERSON
paid really close attention to. And by creating an interface that catered to a newer investor they were able to gather a pretty healthy group of customer And by
2019
DATE
, they had
about 10 1 million
QUANTITY
customers. Those
10 1 million
QUANTITY
customers were a huge success story for
Robin Hood
PERSON
but no one could have predicted its explosion after the arrival of COVID-19. Of the non essential workforce must stay home. Was the growth of
Robin Hood
PERSON
users Turbo charged. And now by many accounts they have more than 20 1 million customers which is pretty extraordinary. So the next step for them is to figure out how to monetize those users and how even with their small account sizes to get them to grow with the company and as it releases more products Come along with them.
Robin Hood
PERSON
would become one of the COVID economies breakout successes
Robert Hood
PERSON
traders as their called became the short hand explanation for the frenzy of often speculative retail investing after the pandemic lockdown Kids wake up in the morning they go on
Robinhood
ORG
they're you know in the shower they check
Robin Hood
PERSON
Kids are learning how to stock market works at
18
CARDINAL
while they're at school, you know, checking their phones and between classes because notifications pop up telling them what their stocks are doing
that day
DATE
. With these new tools millennials and gen Z are investing in the market in ways their parents could have never even dreamed of. Sort of key when we talk about the divide between older and younger generations is that the younger generation was exposed to so much more And tools at their disposal to do what they want in the market. The older generations, you never had the technology or the cost structure that you could play the markets like you can today. So, you were stuck with giving your money to a professional investor of paying them a fee. To do it. Experience more so than anything else. You know if you could possibly shave
10 20 years
DATE
off your working life versus adding
5 years
DATE
No.
You know if you could possibly shave
10 20 years
DATE
off your work in life versus adding
5 years
DATE
I don't think you can fault people for that. But
Robin Hood
PERSON
is only part of the puzzle sure you can trade on it but without research information and data you're just blindly throwing darts at different stocks and hoping to strike it rich. Wall St forever his always run on what we now called narratives for needs you know people telling rumors to each other a bit around for
100 years
DATE
. Street information is its own currency Either you had it or you did it and the people who had it had a huge advantage. It would be one person telling another person over the phone Fact when i broke into this business in the 80s a lot of people used to complain that they weren't on the call list to get those ideas Social media changed all of that. Fast forward to
2021
DATE
, that's being done on the internet now and that's being done on discord and
Twitter
PERSON
and Stock Twitch in Reddit and the impact is very similar but orders and orders is back to
two
CARDINAL
larger. Also played a bigger and kind of more important role in how people find investing ideas And on these platforms. Those ideas spread on
TikTok
ORG
. That
TikTok
ORG
. People aren't just going to at for sea shanty videos. The personal finance hashtag on
TikTok
ORG
is garnered
three
CARDINAL
.
5 billion
CARDINAL
views from its
one 1 billion
MONEY
monthly
DATE
active users by comparison videos found under the cooking and health tips# have two. Six and two.
1 billion
CARDINAL
views respectively Trajectory of
Robin Hood
PERSON
and
TikTok
ORG
were What happened in the stock market
this week
DATE
? So, the word of the week is expectations Absolutely essential that you guys understand the risks of shoring.
Kyla Scanlon
ORG
are
two
CARDINAL
of those financial influencer
TikTokers
ORG
. Also known as
Finfluencers
ORG
. A lot of them are younger investors who are looking to home their skills taken right up
Kywin
GPE
Kayla are
two
CARDINAL
of the more let's say
Tiktok
PERSON
influencers. Cluster. Reading since high school and it was a really interesting way for me to fill out my decision making frameworks and to think about thinking and I think that's some more that we can have people thinking about finance the better that we're going to progresses as a society I think it's a huge gap that are educational system If you're gonna buy an option for a stock you can just gonna go up it's a call Can I still buy it at Suppress Kind of women just like attack that video and we're like Or like I could sit and listen to you all day and I was like the this is what I was looking for. But
TikTok
ORG
's algorithm does not reward common measured videos about responsible investing. It rewards this. Watch this video for
30 seconds
TIME
and you'll be rich for the rest of your I try not to say the A word the ALGO word Take talk lessons to it. The algorithm does impact how you feel. You know, you do notice which videos do better versus How do you catch some of the tension in
less than 60 seconds
TIME
and how do you make it something that they're like I need this in my life nearly impossible to do that in
60 seconds
TIME
but the people who put it are the people that you're gonna watch and give them stick around And where people are sticking around read it and it's nearly countless subred it's about finance. And by far the biggest one of those is Wall St bets. There's a lot of social media platforms out there.
Bread it's about finance And by far the biggest one of those is Wall St bets there's a lot of social media platforms out there but Reddit is like the social media platform for finance places like
Wall St Beds
PERSON
is where it all goes down started in
January 2012
DATE
it wasn't Before Wall St bets adopted a
410
CARDINAL
like etiquette leading to their tagline like
410
CARDINAL
found a
bloomberg
PERSON
terminal. We had all these unexplained stockings and we would be grasping for a widestock
XYZ jump
ORG
20%
PERCENT
a day and you would look at Wall St Bats and you would see people there talking about buying options in that stock and
Sort
PERSON
of. Wow we have to start paying attention to this. Some people on the platform really spend tons of time and others are just looking for entertainment and to have a little bit of fun, effectively gambling or looking for an outlet trying to make a little bit of Then on top of all of that there were stimulus checks now clearly this money is going to people who need to use that to eat to live but there's a lot of people who use this money To invest in the stock market. And it's not just stock tips people quote unquote yolo their entire life savings are stimulus checks on a single stock They post what is called gain and lost porn screen grabbing staggering hits and misses on stocks for the entire community to see About to lose. I want some of the people on Wall St Pets are novice investors the community contains multitudes in
one
CARDINAL
respect what it did show us among these network groups is they are very sophisticated they're not a bunch of ignorant people talking to other ignorant people and this is where Pieces of the puzzle all come together to reach havoc on Wall St for a solid week in
early 2021
DATE
. Pretty clear that the combination of more people having retail brokerage accounts and treating apps and more people being stuck at home looking for some kind of entertainment and some kind of community online came together in this very singular way. What came together is GameStop Let's go back to the beginnings of what happened with GameStop cup with years ago Words like write it in stock with a lot of people were talking about GameStop is being attractive value. Example of that. Opportunities in the market
today
DATE
. Really, I don't understand how you could disagree with that. It's the same time that this crowd was talking it up. The hedge fund institutional crowd didn't like this stock at all and it had the largest short interest of any stock in
the New York Stock Exchange
ORG
going into
late 2020
DATE
.
Sally
PERSON
is a bet that a stock price will fall and it's a fairly simple concept. An investor borrows a stock and then sells it the investor is betting on buying the stock back later for a lower price before returning it to the original owner pocketing the price difference What a short seller would tell you is that they almost act as a policeman in financial markets or they're at least looking for companies that aren't what they say they are and that can range anywhere from an outright fraud that some short sellers try to expose to just a company that's not worth as much as Think it is. Is if the stock price rises the short seller has to come up with the money to buy the stock back and the more prizes the more costs and that's what's called the short squeeze and the hedge fund
Melvin
PERSON
capital was on the wrong end of that squeeze Just from being caught in the short squeeze of the stock The disruption comes in.
One
CARDINAL
of the most wild stories you're ever going to see GameStop shares absolutely going nuts in
less than a year
DATE
the company's stock has jumped from
less than $three
MONEY
a share to
almost $350 Cheers
MONEY
. Rory.
The company stock has jumped from
less than $three
MONEY
a share to
almost $350
MONEY
. Cheers everybody. He has turned
$50 thousand
MONEY
or so investment into
some 14 1 million dollars
QUANTITY
. Investors all over social media use the free trading app robinhood to wreak havoc on Wall St Tick tock and discord to tell one another to keep buying and quote whole the line and not sell game stop people are getting cheerleaded for jumping in buying at the highs they're saying keep going and it was working too
Thursday
DATE
morning
TIME
the trading app
Robin Hood
PERSON
sent out this tweet in light of Market volatility. People were really angry. Retail investors are being allowed to buy shares of the stock but what we learned is that when people organize Mine they have the ability to disrupt the market It was a big sign that ivory walls of institution artist powerful is maybe the institution slapped them to be I don't know something about game stuff was the best use of
billions of dollars
MONEY
but I think that as a signal to society it was pretty interesting The game stop saw was so impactful that both
Vlad Tenev
FAC
and
Rory Kitty
PERSON
were called into testify before
congress
ORG
to clarify each of their roles in the saga Is that they're interested in how retail brokerages make money and whether they're keeping the best interest of their customers in mind but it's pretty fuzzy as far as what they would actually do as a result. Friends around GameStop eventually subsided it didn't take long for retail investors to find other areas to invest their money take a look at Bitcoin going bananas over
the weekend
DATE
big one forms of brand new all time high it was after game stop started to drop that we saw Bit Really go up to over 60 1000. That doesn't rally have to run it's compelling to say that money shifted from one venue to the other. Correlation doesn't equal causation. There's a chart out there showing an inverse correlation on meme stocks going down and cryptocurrencies going up. Definitely an aspect where people are making money on stocks and then moving, you know, they're agnostic. They're not a hedge funds. They can invest wherever the hell they want. It's a classic sort of They're going to wherever the winners are and they're willing to jump on and So whether it's meme stocks like GameStop meme coins like
Dogecoin
PERSON
or entirely new ways to invest in art like NFTs the new kind of retail investor is making its presence known over
the next 10
DATE
maybe
15 years
DATE
you're going to continue to see whether by choice or by force that baton go from older generations to younger generations I don't think any single app is is going to be the thing that disrupts I think people are the disruptors Ideas about what to invest in has become increasingly entwined with social media and as social media companies govern more and more of our lives the fact that now they're tied in more intimately to people's wallets is something that we might wanna understand Usually what disruption I think means is technology comes in whether it's blogs to the newspapers or online retailing to brick and mortar they come in and they're in the same business but they just do it in such a gigantic car savings that it causes everybody to Well, that's the risk that happens here is that it's so much cheaper to just manage your own
Well that's the risk that happens here is that it's so much cheaper to just manage your own money we're not there yet but cost and conveniences are moving in that direction so I'd say Wall St you haven't been disrupted yet but you In
the coming years
DATE
and that the final chapter on this story hasn't been written. Meet
Bloomberg
PERSON
's own
David Nicholson
PERSON
. Now his happy place is out in the field On the open road But like the rest of the world lately he's been working from home a lot more than he's used to. COVID-19 has prompted a massive urban exodus as professionals of every ilk yearn for more space to live and work. As a result, rural areas have exploded and their poise to experience a resurgence as more and more families pack up and leave the big city to try out life in the burbs. But there's
one
CARDINAL
problem with that Not all internet speeds are created equal Anyone who might need to upload or download large files for a living may not wanna pack up and move to that cabin in the woods just yet. Now David's house isn't a cabin but it is in the woods and inexplicably his internet is workable. My internet is okay. I pay a lot for it. It's
around $140
MONEY
a month. The download speed's great The upload speed is terrible which is really bad for my work cuz I have to upload these massive files but I'm definitely one of the more lucky ones in this community. Just
a few miles
QUANTITY
down the road, my buddy has awful internet. Usually under
two
CARDINAL
down Under point due up so it's it's often unusable. It'll drop down to
about.
CARDINAL
Two
CARDINAL
. Three. Do have internet at my house without having to go outside the More. Acquiring internet. It's it's really frustrating. We're literally
Miles
PERSON
a few miles
QUANTITY
away from downtown. Anna just cuts off. A problem and the solutions are not there yet because getting high speed internet and rural areas on mass is something our providers may simply not be ready for If your internet service doesn't have fast download and upload speeds then you don't have high speed harmony you have.
Americans
NORP
on average pay
about $70
MONEY
a month for internet at home. But in rural areas it could cost a lot more for a lot less service. So the pricing for a fixed wireless provider here can be something
between 80 and $150
QUANTITY
For
about 25
CARDINAL
megabits per second. However, gigabit service which is
a 1000 megabytes
QUANTITY
per
second
ORDINAL
and symmetrical is running at
about 119 a month
DATE
or
130
CARDINAL
a month. That's
John Paul
PERSON
he co-owns spiral fiber an internet service provider here in
Nevada County
GPE
California
GPE
and for
the past 10 years
DATE
he's been trying to bring an affordable fiber optic network to town It all started when you apply to be part of the pilot program for
google
ORG
's fiber service. Civic boosters have been going to extreme chanting. End marching. Hey
These days
DATE
is crucial to be in the world to be a part of the world and to be connected to your community. Google ultimately went with
Kansas City
GPE
Missouri
GPE
which left
Paul
PERSON
on a mission to get together.
Is crucial to be in the world to be a part of the world and to be connected to your community. Ultimately went with
Kansas City
GPE
Missouri
GPE
which left
Paul
PERSON
on a mission to get funding to layout fiber optic networks for gigabit service Over
the next several years
DATE
he would attend conferences and pitch venture capitalists and apply for grants to make his vision come to life One of the biggest roadblocks to building infrastructure for the internet here in
the United States
GPE
are the existing large providers. They have their landscaped out they would prefer that nobody come in and compete against them in
20
CARDINAL
We applied for a grant. We went down and met with the commissioners at
the California Public Utilities Commission
ORG
. It was arduous process to get funded. But we finally did against all odds. We got a
16 1 million dollars
MONEY
And then we went out to seek venture capital Then in
March of 2020
DATE
the pandemic hit the world Everybody got locked down and everybody came home and everybody started using the internet and I remember seeing on one of the local fixed wireless providers websites they've said hey we know you're all staying home but please don't use too much video and please don't use too much band with an i thought that And work. The
US
GPE
connectivity gap is far greater compared to countries that are considered its peers economically. Some developing nations actually have better internet than rural
America
GPE
. Like in
Kenya
GPE
, which has a state-of-the-art fiber optic network fed in from their coastline. The
American
NORP
connectivity gap does largely affect rural areas that are either outside of service coverage or simply prohibitively expensive. This is Rebecca she earned her family moved to
Nevada County
GPE
just
a couple miles
QUANTITY
down the road from David. They took for granted that high speed internet would just exist in the area and it's not something they even bothered to check on before buying their house. Turns out all they got was dial up. We wanted to move where we have a little more space, room for the kids to run around, you know, just be out in the mountains a little bit more. Having come from a bigger city area where
WiFi
PERSON
is pretty readily available. We had it really considered In our purchasing of the house whether that would be an option or not. When school started and now that we are remote learning with our children and we're doing everything from home. We didn't have the option to do that at our house so every day when
School
ORG
would start we'd have to pack the kids up and we'd go to my in law home they have a little cabinet in this area that does have
WiFi
PERSON
already
Situation
ORG
is the norm in rural
America
GPE
. According to data from
the federal communications commission
ORG
, just four% of urban
Americans
NORP
lack access to broadband internet. That's compared to
almost 40%
PERCENT
of people who live in
Areas
GPE
. Device in terms of who had that access. In addition to that geographic difference, low income
African American
NORP
students,
Latino
PERSON
students, and
first
ORDINAL
generation college students were more likely than others to have only one device at home that shared among multiple siblings and or lack access to that actual connection. For most
American
NORP
towns there's also a lack of competition forcing internet prices up enlarge providers like AT and T in Comcast aren't incentivized to expand service to these rural communities. Simple, easy, awesome. So, in our area, we have a small imprint of Comcast but they're not gonna go out to the more rural areas. It's just not cost effective for them to do it as a large company. In order to weigh fiber cable, you're actually physically digging trenches into the ground and for internet service providers, they're Primarily focused on maximizing their profits and so the fewer customers you have you know in any square mile and the more fiber you have to lay that's just kind of harder to pencil out from a purely economic standpoint AT and T release a statement on the matter expressing the need and desire for government assistance to fund fiber optic expansion To areas deemed unprofitable
Comcast
ORG
released a similar statement encouraging more public private collaboration on this effort. Federal agencies do offer grants to help communities build broadband networks but many have argued that there's not enough flexibility on how to use these funds. The COVID-19 relief package passed by
congress
ORG
in
March
DATE
and signed by President
Donald Trump
PERSON
awarded $
43
MONEY
.
3 million to 51
CARDINAL
projects on
the east coast
LOC
alone. Put it all
It's passed by
congress
ORG
in
March
DATE
and signed by President
Donald Trump
PERSON
awarded $
43
MONEY
.
3 million to 51
CARDINAL
projects on
the east coast
LOC
alone. But it also stipulated that these projects needed to be up and running by
December 30
DATE
For contractors who plan projects
months
DATE
and
years
DATE
in advance it's a scramble to rearrange their schedules to meet that deadline. So what we've been asking the federal government to to consider is at least have as long as the projects are getting started knowing the projects are being put into place to expand both remote learning working from home and and an opportunities like that that are truly driven from COVID. We're moving as fast as we can regardless but hopefully they'll give us some more time. Talking to
john Paul
PERSON
it's clear that he believes broadband is something that can transform a community and should be considered a public good What are the
first
ORDINAL
communities to come on in
the United States
GPE
with full on gigabit service was
Chattanooga
LANGUAGE
,
Tennessee
GPE
. Now, there are bigger city but there are city that was econ In a downturn In
the last 15 years
DATE
the city of
Chattanooga
NORP
has turned around in an amazing way. It's a nexus for young people to move to. It's a place where technology happens. It's not just about logging on to
Zoom
PERSON
. You know that to connect with your colleagues who might be in
New York City
GPE
. Also your ability as a small business you know operating in the town of
Nevada City
GPE
or wherever it may be to you know quickly upload your Roll documents or something onto the cloud or to quickly you know swipe a customer's credit card. There's just some really basic business functions in mechanics that I think people in big cities really take for granted and that are just gonna be a much bigger challenge for small business owners in rural areas Hey Thank you. Historically the marginalized people you call them as untouchable it's ah there have been kept away from the center of the knowledge once you are born into a cast it is very Call for you to grow beyond that you are stuck in that identity. Yeah education is the best We are liberating them so that's how I chose to work in education sector. The kind of education that we are giving to the marginalized people is going to change not just the fate of these communities in It is going to be the source of inspiration Oh been a source of hope All the marginalized in this country. Greatest flight in
India
GPE
is the system of cast. For generations of
Indians
NORP
the social code known as the car system has defined how people earn a living and whom they marry. Although outlawed
seven decades ago
DATE
Remain
ORG
a significant factor in deciding everything from family ties and cultural traditions to educational and economic opportunities. Darling people who are on the lowest run of the car system constitute
almost one fifth
CARDINAL
of
India
GPE
's population of
one.
MONEY
3 billion. Not able to afford the high tuition
The car system. Constitute
almost one fifth
CARDINAL
of
India
GPE
's population of
one.
MONEY
3 billion. Not able to afford the high tuition of private schools many of us to attend government funded institutions which in the past have suffered from poor infrastructure lower education standards and high student to teacher ratios But Doctor
Praveen Kumar
PERSON
is trying to change that. Currently working as you know ahead of the social welfare residential schools. So, totally above
400
CARDINAL
schools I managed. They're all residential schools. For the students who are historically marginalized but talented Than poor.
60%
PERCENT
of girls and then
40%
PERCENT
a boy because girls are more marginalized among the marginalized their voices are always suppress My approach to improve the conditions in the schools has been put your eyes and ears on the ground always talk to the parents To the teachers, talk to the students, you know, Stay the schools and then understand their problems they challenges both in classrooms and then the corridors and the domes then go to the dining halls and see what kind of food they are eating and then go to their homes and then what kind of food What kind of challenges parents have What are the important changes that I brought in after I took over was to The transformation of
Motherton
LOC
to
English
LANGUAGE
medium because
english
LANGUAGE
medium as I said
English
LANGUAGE
is the language of emancipation A language of that connects you to the whole body of knowledge in the world. So we had to train a lot of teachers Hey portal Identity is extremely important There is there is a scientific evidence to prove that you know you are since I've identity is extremely crucial to your growth as a successful Human being in your life. If you are accepting identity which is very humiliating which reminds you of very painful past I think that identity will not help you to grow Not saying that you should forget your past. I'm not saying that but that should not be ah the bubble in which you must live always. Hey portal Asueros is an alternative identity. S stands for state Stands for welfare arrow Blue and then arrow is
Suero
GPE
. So the idea is your dreams have to be sky bomb So that is what we are trying to achieve by changing the identity so like you know we say I'm a swearer And I aim to be a doctor. I am a surro. I am to the top notch engineer. I am a surro. I want to be a top bureaucrat of this country. I must where I want to be a very good actor or you know
Musician
NORP
in the store in a while. So, these are the positive images that are associated with
Ireland
GPE
. Just to give an example to you. See in
2012
DATE
Are you not institution we used to produce
about six
CARDINAL
doctors per year. But because of our you know this self liberating ideology of serroism. We have
this year
DATE
we have produced
about 189
CARDINAL
doctor This is phenomenal for any of the you know how difficult it is to get into a medical colleges in this country So, but
today
DATE
because of this ideology, the students have been able to achieve this you know, heap.
Pujita
PERSON
is has been a form laborator My parents, the girls are agriculture libraries and then this
Pujita is has been a form laborator
Parents
PERSON
, the girls are agriculture laboratories and then this girl used to sell vegetables but thanks to the residential education institutions. She came to go with the D campus and then she toiled very hard for
1 year
DATE
despite you know many problems. And
today
DATE
I'm so happy to share with you that you know she is she is joined one of the prestigious medical colleges in the state of
Telangana
GPE
who is smiling medical college and then future when she hopes to be a gynecologist So, this is the journey. Our children are hoping for. Similarly the mountain is text version. I mount every expression we were we are very fortunate enough to please the youngest ever female in the history of
One
CARDINAL
on the peak of
Monterest
PRODUCT
. How did this happen it's all because of an idea that helps you to liberate yourself. Lot of extra curricular activities and most of them got institutional Also, for example, music. Similarly the games we have so many is coaching academy her boxing academy we have a handball academy so we have you know cupboard
Indian
NORP
sport. If we have goal, if we have entered this goal, golf is generally played by so called rich people but
today
DATE
, you can poorest of the poor people also are being trained in golf in our schools. So intention has been to give all 360ยฐ you know a type of opportunities to the students so that you know wherever is interested in whatever activity they can go and then do it. Break the barriers
Break
PERSON
the fence at least mentally. Because support people have been programmed to be Program to be Subjugate. Program to be On the margins always To feel inferior. We wanted to change on that there are certain games which are exclusive to rich people There are certain languages which are exclusive to middle class and upper middle class in this country To put it in one word The soul aim of reducing all these To break the
Stereotypes
PERSON
which are recklessly built on these people The stereotypes doctor
Kumar
PERSON
knows all too well Born a dalet his grandparents were laborous and access to the village well was restricted. Doctor Kuma credits his parents belief in the power of education with helping him realize his aspirations. He went on to join the
Indian
NORP
police service attended
Harvard University
ORG
and then began pursuing educational reforms back home. I attribute whatever I am today it's to my mother primarily they educated me the village although there were no good schools so then I stayed in a social welfare hostel Hostels which are managed by government ah for the poorest of the portrait. I passed with you know reasonably good grades than I went to university and then I faced ah worst form of Commission in the university is like there were you know in those days I'm talking about so the bathrooms and the you know toilets were Exclusive element for
Shelka Sanchez
PERSON
. We used to fight this convention on one hand and then again you know try to excel in academics So that's how I came to education because I deeply believe that
Education
ORG
is the only important weapon that can really you know place the poorest of the poor people From from a very victimhood orbit to prosperous harbit. Think in future Going to be a game changer for the marginalized this country
If you look at a thermal image of a city and then compare that to a map of vegetation you'll find that weather's greenery the temperature is lower. That's because things like asphalt concrete and shingled roofs absorb more heat from the sun than trees. This is the urban heat island effect and it accounts for higher temperatures in cities often by
several degrees
QUANTITY
compared with their surroundings It's becoming a huge risk to human health as growing up in populations exacerbate the heating effects of climate change. Heat waves kill more people than any other extreme weather event more than tornadoes hurricanes and even floods. That's why urban heat island mitigation strategies are being studied in
Singapore
GPE
by a group of researchers. The government back project called
Cooling Singapore
PRODUCT
is now in the process of combining everything they've learned to create a digital tool that can help cities all over the world Starting with
Singapore
GPE
In
Singapore
GPE
close to the equator temperatures regularly rise above
32
CARDINAL
ยฐC or
90
CARDINAL
ยฐF And the city structures only make it worse. And that is also the keys for
Singapore
GPE
which is basically a concrete jungle, more urbanized, more developed city. And even in
Singapore
GPE
what you have is a situation whereby there's a temperature difference of
7
CARDINAL
ยฐC between the more urban eyes and the more rural areas The government has taken drastic steps to keep temperatures down. This is Gardens by the Bay an award winning park An inside this greenhouse is a pleasant
24
CARDINAL
ยฐ. That's because the dome along with
two dozen
CARDINAL
nearby towers full of
thousands
CARDINAL
of people is chilled by what's probably the world's largest underground district cooling system. It uses a large central plant that cause water and then pipes it into banks residential towers and exhibition center shopping malls and the cities iconic marina bay sounds hotel and casino complex So one of the biggest perks of using this system for the buildings is that they can save
40%
PERCENT
In terms of electricity usage Compare to your traditional air conditioners. I'm with
Singapore
GPE
relying on natural gas for most of its power. This new system means emission savings equivalent to removing
10 1000
QUANTITY
cargo Stay as they are
more than a third
CARDINAL
of the world's electricity could end up being used to call buildings and vehicles by
2050
DATE
. As the world gets hotter gets warmer there is a greater need for air conditioning and as well as refrigerators for instance and the more people are buying these household appliances the more energy usage they they use and they release heat more and Climate change. It's a vicious circle And so since
2017
DATE
researchers are calling
Singapore
GPE
have been identifying design solutions that reduce our need for so much cool air in the
first
ORDINAL
place.
One
CARDINAL
thing many cities have in common and as the importance of education That's it very important measure Mitigate the heat.
One
CARDINAL
thing many cities have in common and as the importance of education that's a very important measure to mitigate heat because of the shading effect of course and deep psychological effects of the vegetation and also Of the possible
Operative
ORG
. Effect of the vegetation. Can be of course on the ground floor Form of trees and troughs and you can walk under them. This is the so called canopy layer that the vegetation forms above us. But vegetation can also go up to facades of buildings. And you can go to the roof of the buildings. Luckily
Singapore
GPE
has been striving for the garden city feel for quite some time. It was a vision initially introduced by them prime minister
Lee Quan Yu
PERSON
in
1967
DATE
to make life more pleasant for people and today
Singapore
GPE
is
one
CARDINAL
of the world's greenest cities in terms of urban vegetation.
Campus Admiralty
PERSON
the community center that contains health facilities and social spaces now provides more green space than the plot of land it was originally built on It's topped by a roofscape of staggered terraces covered in local plants which functions as a community park. Under village green in the center that contains farm plots for residents to tend to. Park royal on pickering was designed as a hotel in a garden that doubled the green growing potential of its site. There's now
15 1000
CARDINAL
m of sky gardens reflecting pools, waterfalls, planter terraces, and green walls. And the government has big plans as well.
Singapore
GPE
actually has a plan to plan
one 1 million
QUANTITY
trees and add more green spaces over
the next 10 years
DATE
. It is actually a mix of
one
CARDINAL
thing to reduce the urban heat island effect. But on the other hand is also to get the people to be more connected to nature. But it's not enough The city state has still been warming twice as quickly as the world average over
the past six decades
DATE
. That's why cooling
Singapore
GPE
has developed a catalogue of other potential heat mitigation measures. When you try to mitigate your heat and effect in a city or in any building in a village as well. The
first
ORDINAL
place to start is by shading The windows you have to keep Areas clear so that the wind can move through it water of a certain depth can act as a very good thermal buffer If you have to construct heavy buildings such as high rises at least you can make the surface the facade Less heavy and you can protect it from direct sun penetration you have to make sure that no combustion engines will be in the city in the middle and the medium to long term range so ideally the electricity production is outside of And you bring just a clean City into the city you cannot at least minimize the use of energy in the city and you can start to slowly convert the roofs the facades of the city into Areas for renewable energy In
Singapore
GPE
unfortunately this is a limited option but in the long run it could produce up to
2025 percent
PERCENT
of the energy of the electricity needed in
Singapore
GPE
if all the roofs and the areas in the buildings on the buildings on the facades would be used to do that With so many different ideas cooling
Singapore
GPE
is also designing a virtual model of the city to test them out it's called a digital urban climate twin or duct that will calculate how each element of the city's design will impact the urban heat island effect That means we model not only the geometry of the buildings digitally but also the model to transportation The insulation Temperature, the radiation coming from the sun. The weather, the local weather, the local climate, the even very very microclimate of the city. Water. Movement of people
Weather, the local weather, the local climate, the even very very microclimate of the city. Water. Movement of people in the city We can invent scenarios. We can design scenarios, test them before we actually built them and if they test very well and we are sure that they will function, then, we can start to build them Put them into reality.
Singapore
GPE
will be using this new tool to figure out which actions it should take next. And the model can be applied to any city whether it needs to keep heat out or keep heat in which will ultimately save energy slow climate change and improve our quality of life. So, this is something that
Singapore
GPE
will be able to export. Maybe even together With its city development systems that it already has
Singapore
GPE
is
one
CARDINAL
of the very few cities in the world that really This scientific approach with a very well established redesign and design approach through its agencies and the combination of its agencies. It has achieved a lot in the past If it keeps Following the scientific path and the combination Other In the city already we think that it will be a very comfortable Very livable city and the future even more than today. Times are tough. Jobs are scarce. It's risky to be outside and around others. Seems like there's very few ways to make extra money during a pandemic. So I guess I'll just hunker down and binge social media until this all blows over. Wait How do these people make money? Streamers,
YouTubers
ORG
,
Twitch
NORP
stars, how do they make money? Is it a lot? Is it a lot of work I know i gotta ask somebody in the biz and i got just the guy
Austin John
PERSON
plays. This is your full-time job now, right? As of
November of last year
DATE
, yes. This was always just kinda like a side thing. Like, any money that I made from My videos and whatever else I never touched that cuz I didn't really think of that as being like real money and then it started coming in more and more and then it would like I hit my first day that I broke a grand and I was like This is actually gonna be money How did the youtube channel come to be when the game
Pokemon sun
ORG
and moon came out for the threeDS there was like things that I learned about the game and then I I wanted to just share that information with people and at the time I didn't have any way to capture a screen or anything so I found like generic footage and I kinda put it Together with so much editing and that video got
six
CARDINAL
views. And then
2 days later
DATE
I made another one and that one got
12
CARDINAL
views and then I just started pumping out more and more content and people were like, this guy knows what he's talking about. It really just started building on top of itself and then it was like My channel really focuses on tips and tricks so I A straight
18 hours
TIME
and I'll finish the game or get to
about the 40 hour
TIME
mark and then I'll make my first
This is on tips and tricks so I play a straight
18 hours
TIME
and I'll finish the game or get to
about the 40 hour
TIME
mark And then I'll make my
first
ORDINAL
video. While I'm going through, I've a giant notepad and just scribbles everywhere and I make these notes of like the things that stumped me. So, I know the things that may stump other people. What do you need to think about if you're building your
YouTube
ORG
channel?
One
CARDINAL
, you need to do something that your passionate about. Not that you like, not that you think you're gonna make money on something you're passionate about. There's other thing is something that other people are passionate about. It holds a special place to them. And
third
ORDINAL
is it needs to be something that people are gonna seek out information on. In order to enter into the marketplace you either need to be better than everyone else. You either need to be faster than everyone else or you need to be more accessible than everyone else. And you can't be more accessible cuz it's already on the platform granted if you understand how the algorithm works which is very similar to Google Analytics then yeah you can have a little bit of a head start but if you're not doing it faster and if you're not doing
Better
ORG
than everyone else than why we shouldn't wanna watch our channel So my income as a
YouTuber
ORG
kinda breaks down to
three
CARDINAL
different ways.
One
CARDINAL
, which is the bulk of it, which is add revenue. Whenever you go and you watch a video and then there's an ad and you wait
5 seconds
TIME
and you hit the bottom right corner and then you go on to the next video or nonscapable ad or The video starts immediately get the little banner at the bottom or If you scroll down from the video the first thing that shows there is an ad those are the
four
CARDINAL
different types of ads that can appear on every single
YouTube
ORG
video All of them pay a certain amount. It varies on lots of things like the country The time of year where you are in
the quarter
DATE
if there's anything going on with A reduction in ad revenue like great example COVID-19 companies weren't as spending as much on advertising so because of that
CPM
ORG
went down
CPM
ORG
stands for a click per 1000 using the Roman numeral for 1000 And that means that for everyone
1000
CARDINAL
views you get a certain amount of money now on low ads when I first started off my
CPM
ORG
was Sense so every 1000 views I made ยข30 but then once I signed with an
MCN
ORG
and I started making more quality content and more engaging content some of my better videos and certain times of the year I can see
CPM
ORG
's as high as 12 to
14 dollars
MONEY
And there's a big fluctuation between you know if I post a video No ads being spent like
January
DATE
and
February
DATE
that's original lot of your favorite
YouTubers
ORG
and also TV shows don't post new videos in
that time of year
DATE
cuz at rates are down why are they gonna make content You're recording in your bulking up for when ad revenue is higher. The
second
ORDINAL
way that a
YouTuber
ORG
makes income is
Crowdfunding
LOC
, things like that. When I first started off Patreon was really the only option but then they started rolling out supporters and members for
YouTube
ORG
channels. So, whenever I have a live stream, you can click a button and then you could become a member and then you get special icons next to your name. I believe they're called badges or on any video. Hit the join button and that helps support the channel and then the
third
ORDINAL
aspect to that would be merch. And for me, my merch has been somewhat basic. In fact, I'm wearing one of my T-shirts from
last year
DATE
right now. You have to endure the times that your
first
ORDINAL
video gets
six
CARDINAL
views. That you posted on Reddit. And they say shut up and then An automod bands you. You have to go through that because until you go through that You discover why you're doing it. You're not doing it for other people. You're doing it for yourself. If you're not loving what you do Then it's not worth it So make a channel about something that I'm passionate about Oh sweet. I guess I can make the channel about that
So I can make the channel about that. Now How do I grow an audience How do I get popular? It's all about diversification and you have to have a massive
Twitter
PRODUCT
following. You have to have a massive
Instagram
ORG
following. You have to have a massive
YouTube
ORG
following of course you have to be on
Twitter
PERSON
which is the key platform book. Basically, anyway, you can get in front of your audience. You can engage with your audience. It is going to drive those clicks which ultimately drives the advertiser revenue that you get back from all of these platforms. Playing video games and talking in a funny manner over them. They're not just people who are good at games. They're actually people who are good at online, engagement, online at entertainment
first
ORDINAL
and foremost. Very talented at the game. The best player in the game is generally going to draw a crowd cuz people like watching people who are very good. On the other hand, there either very, very good or funny. Charismatic whatever it is on that side. Oh no. You know becomes more of a show where they talk about other things outside of the gaming world and gaming becomes really just a backdrop and an excuse to engage without audience.
Ronald McDonald
PERSON
looks straight to
VHS
ORG
movies. Remember those? I'm chatty I would kind of you know when boring things were happening the game I would ramble on about you know movies I'd watched or book side read on you know or conversations I'd had and stuff like that so I think being personable was a big part of that. It's not just getting on and playing games. It's getting on and being an entertainer. You are putting on a show. Alright. Now, let me go ahead and grab the samurai sword that every gym has. Okay he's dead. A larger audience and and to have that audience I think stay with you you have to bring something extra you know you have to find your niche you have to find what works and what connects with the audience and and what makes them laugh of what makes them keep coming back You gotta make it a little more exciting alright so I wanna hanging bishop have everybody in suspense for a moment I think the real most important thing is if they just get used to being on camera like in any sort of performance thing is get used to talking on camera you know I my
first
ORDINAL
few videos were terrible but because I sat down and did
6 to 8 hours
TIME
a day I just got used to talking and I got over that uncomfortable hump Go into
Twitch
NORP
purely with the expectation that you're going to make money, make a job out of it, have all this growth, and it's gonna be great. You're probably gonna burn out prior to getting to that point because there's very little payoff for a long time, right? Like
Years
DATE
generally before you really start to see a payoff and so, you know, those
first
ORDINAL
few times your streaming, nobody is there.
One
CARDINAL
person shows up
every 30 minutes
TIME
as high maybe and leaves, right? Like, It's very Discouraging I think for a lot of people and so you have to be there just loving it you have to love talking to yourself when nobody is around you have to love just the game that you're playing all of that stuff because it takes a while and I think the majority of people burn out prior to getting To the like profitable point of it And Have it. My very own
YouTube
ORG
,
Twitch
ORG
,
Discord
GPE
, and streaming channels all ready to go live. It's available social media ecosystem just on the verge of thriving. So, don't forget to smash like and subscribe and visit my Patreon for perks. Also, go to my merch page and
one
CARDINAL
last thing, stay cool, my friends.
This is live stream shopping one of the hottest trends in
China
GPE
.
Night tens of millions
CARDINAL
of people watch live shows hosted by influencers like
Thea
PERSON
and by the products they recommend on e-commerce and social apps like Taobo and Do Ink the Sister app of TikTok
Julie Yinke
PERSON
yeah my dad's having a call with a function About you know only shopping is about the experience it's about having fun you gotta see 3d you gotta see in some kind of action it's almost like a theatre act the internet craze has taken over
China
GPE
by
the end of 2020
DATE
the country had
almost 400 1 million
QUANTITY
live stream shopping users
China
GPE
's live stream e-commerce market has also grown dramatically Estimated value of
161 1 billion dollars
MONEY
and
2020
DATE
. It's becoming popular outside
China
GPE
as well So is live streaming the future of shopping. Live streaming is not a new thing and
China
GPE
is started in
2015
DATE
with the roll out of fourG. First used for entertainment and socializing. Many live streamers perform for their followers or chatted to them making money by receiving virtual currency and gifts. In the west live streaming is mainly the doming of avid gammers. It's broken into e-commerce.
China
GPE
you actually has a very big ecommerce empire so it uses these super apps what we call that you have payment you have search of information you have recommendation system and you have huge amount of goods available on the platform And
SOS
ORG
a lot of consumers. So with this advantage they merge these features of live streaming to make the influences actually so good. Here are the perfect choice. Nice, neutrals, beautiful prints, nothing overwhelming, and the warmth and comfort of flannel. This is Traditional TV shows a
one
CARDINAL
way direction whereby a host introduces a product demonstrate so the things and say
Courty
ORG
's number or something Very very big difference. They call this different psychology and live stream shopping is a very entertaining way of actually engaging someone else. When you shop actually you this live streaming video will continue it will minimize into a corner and you can like buy the items and pay all on the same app after that the live streaming scream will just enlarge by itself and the promoter will come back to screen so it's like very convenient How about one of
China
GPE
's biggest e-commerce platforms on by tech giant
Alabama
GPE
added a live streaming function in
early 2016
DATE
? In
the following years
DATE
, other e-commerce and social platforms like
J. D. And
PERSON
Doing, also integrated this feature. Hey
Countdown
PERSON
.
Over
70 1 billion dollars
MONEY
worth of goods was sold by a live stream on
Taupo in the years through March 2021
DATE
. Surveys show that
over 60%
PERCENT
of live stream uses in
China
GPE
or watching shopping shows and
over 65%
PERCENT
of them shopped at least once via live stream
2020
DATE
live stream shopping got a huge booth during the pandemic We're in lockdown and many retailers were pushed online. People, you know, doing the lockdown, felt like there's a need for more social interactions. Live platform creates an interesting kind of environment that these people discuss that I'm actually interacting with you And live stream shopping brings in a lot more variety of things that people could buy and satisfy you know the sense the sense of a music control especially during the pandemic Add the heart of this craze are the top influencers who have tons of
millions
CARDINAL
of followers and supports
millions of dollars
MONEY
every night. Booster on south and influence. So if you think about
China
GPE
's live streaming you have to know the king and queen of the influences the queen of live streaming via she is actually having the biggest viewership and the biggest sales volume for long time on top of platform she can sell everything from like
Lipsticks
PERSON
, homes, and cars.
One
CARDINAL
time she offered her followers to go on a Tesla ride with her and she even for once so they rocky launch in her live streaming room for
40 1 million rand
MONEY
. The king More widely known as lipsticks brother. He used to be a cosmetic sales before he turned into live streaming e-commerce and he knows a lot about the cosmetics. So, he's the one that will actually put the lipst All himself when he's on the show Top live streamers like Via and
Lijati
GPE
have become celebrities in
China
GPE
and can earn
millions of dollars
MONEY
a year. Although not everyone can be as popular mid ranking live streamers like
Tiffany Stewart
PERSON
and a good income through sales commissions.
John Leida
PERSON
Now is your little helper. That's so true. A lot of successful livestreamers are generally very good at communication They're very good at articulating very simply what the product does what a product doesn't do in order for them to sell they need to be trustworthy and appear trustworthy and they need to you know show in some ways that they're authentic right so for Able to articulate that quite a bit through the body language, through what they say, for example, the church he will also say things about things about certain products because to him that is honest opinion and something that Want to hear that? And so they seem very credible. They seem very trustworthy and don't forget they also very entertaining and very interesting. Over your familiarity jazzy
one
CARDINAL
Guinness
ORG
record for like the most lipstick applications tomorrows in
a 30 seconds
TIME
. So, if you're able to create a lot of bus, you're gonna interesting things that you do. People who don't want money.
Applications tomorrows in a
30 seconds
TIME
So if you're able to create a lot of bus you really interesting things that you do people who may not wanna buy lipsticks but also streaming just to watch what I did and then from there you might get hooked Live streamers also use cell techniques such as limited time or supply. This sense of scarcity can often encourage viewers to buy. The platform in the
South
LOC
creates an enhancer some of these things but you see it live suddenly because social proof has taken over meaning that hey other people are interested other people are joining in other people want the same product and they add in a chat and they ask questions and they say oh I want this too what happens then it makes the whole product even more scarf But it's not just influencers local farmers luxury brands even mutual funds have also started their own live stream shows. Working with very top tier live streamers can be it's not necessary that the benefits will end up with a brand so we see company executives opening their own shows and we see like
PNG
ORG
have their own sales room We also have like local governors in like small towns to sell their agricultural products so the live streaming is definitely transform the way product owners can think about how to reach their consumers and enables a lot of players to actually sell The live stream shopping is going global merchants in
Southeast Asia
LOC
have embraced this trend. And in the west
Amazon
ORG
has upgraded its live streaming function Interactive features like chat rooms. Companies including Google and Facebook also developing an investing in technologies to integrate video and e-commerce. No. If you look at the numbers alone Yes, no. You know that they can sell and you know that, you know, they can
January
DATE
revenue. Are they able to sustain it over a long period of time? It depends on how you know where they are at changing some of the things that they do. But you can't expect consumers
1 day
DATE
turn into virtual shopping for good there will be the nature of us that crave to go into the store to touch the goods and actually wear it and see how it looks like and walk around that with our friends and those things wouldn't be replaceable With live streaming. You could imagine
Oceans
NORP
are actually the largest battery We store in huge amounts of energy in the oceans. The wave of motion can be very deep it can extend down
several 100 metres
QUANTITY
I want you to get to the near shore About 50 m the whole water column is moving backwards and forwards. As we search for ways to reduce our lands on fossil fuels some are looking to a largely untapped potential source of renewable energy. In theory waves of the coast of
the United States
GPE
alone could generate over
two 1 trillion kilowatt
QUANTITY
hours
TIME
of electricity a year. Enough to power more than Of the country. Intensifying subside not as quickly as the wind.
Two 1 trillion kilowatt
QUANTITY
hours
TIME
of electricity a year. Enough to power
more than half
CARDINAL
of the country. Intensify and subside not as quickly as the wind and that means that it can produce a smoother power generation curve.
One
CARDINAL
of the potential advantages of wave energy is that it could act as a complimentary source of power. Compared to other renewables on the grid if Scaled up to commercial scale. For
decades
DATE
engineers have been trying to convert wave energy into electricity. But a host of technological and financial challenges have complicated their efforts. In
the years
DATE
from
around 2006 to 2015
DATE
there were Hey bankruptcies in the sector and this was largely because of a lack of kind of continuous Proven projects out at sea with reliable electricity. She's generation. Since then companies have been trying to develop the technologies but a steadier pace and with a smaller cash burn. With the same questions remain Companies develop devices and technologies that actually work Energy just a novelty or something that can become a major renewable energy source. The sea is about challenging environment within which to operate apart. Sea water is priceive and conditions are very rough so this means that power projects don't have a very long lifetime and it increases operating and maintenance costs. Partly because of that many early wave energy projects hit rough waters such as the palamus wave energy converter in
Portugal
GPE
and the islampic project in
Scotland
GPE
. Hasn't stopped others from trying. Companies are focused on testing projects out to see proving that your ability Trying to raise And bring down cost. The sector hasn't really converged around
one
CARDINAL
single technology design and companies are kind of undercide about which design works best.
Finland
GPE
based AW energy is a veteran in the sector. The
first
ORDINAL
proof of concept of the company's device was made in
the 90s
DATE
after
divernovasari
PERSON
observe the strong back and forth movement of a hatch cover in a shipwreck in the
Baltic
NORP
The waves are generated far from the coastline. So the wind blows on the on the surface of the water. In the water part of course to rotate And that rotation extends deep down below the surface and and the waves can be very long. They can be
several 100 metres
QUANTITY
long. Unless they come into the near shore this rotational energy Turns into an electical and a gin eventually back and forth that you probably noticed if you've been swimming on the seashore in large waves your pulled in and out that's the energy that we're extracting there's a sweet spot where we deploy so around
10 to 15 metres
QUANTITY
of water depth that's where there's still strong wave energy coming in after Research prototyping and testing the company is deployed wave roller. A
350 kilowatt
QUANTITY
device in the waters of
Portugal Wave
ORG
roller has an
18
CARDINAL
m wide and
10
CARDINAL
m high steel panel fix to the sea bed via floatable foundation The panel moves back and forth with the waves capturing the energy. It's in the Hey it's it's protected from the extreme waves we celebrate electricity by capturing the Movement with hydraulic circuitry in a machine room underneath the surface That hydraulic energy we turn to electricity with hydroliccumulated and hydrolic motors and also generator. The wave roller has survived large waves at sea for over a year and delivered electricity via an underwater cable to the grid in
Portugal
GPE
. Meanwhile, the company has won a
two
CARDINAL
. โฌ
5000000
MONEY
grant to work on an upgraded version of the wave roller aiming to increase the electricity
Meanwhile the company has won a
two
CARDINAL
. โฌ
5000000
MONEY
grant to work on an upgraded version of the wave roller aiming to increase the electricity generation capacity to
one megawatt
QUANTITY
. The upscale device would have a bigger Panel two power take off units and improved software to control the energy production They can into use a bay prediction algorithm that kind of tells us what kind of waves are coming in to our device That gives us
a few seconds
TIME
to prepare For capturing more energy Difference in daddy's significant Our future plans are to deliver technology around the world. So I'm hoping we can be Working on on delivering technology to projects in
Asia
LOC
And and also in in
American
NORP
continents as well. While is really company eco wave power is taking a different approach to capturing the power of the ocean For the company's founder in a brotherman developing new sources of renewable energy is a personal mission. I was born in
Ukraine
GPE
in
1986
DATE
In
2 weeks
DATE
after I was born that you're noble nuclear reactor exploded causing the largest in history no clear disaster I was one of the babies that got hurt from the negative effects of such explosion i had the respiratory arrest and a clinical death. Lucky my mother and nurse approach my crib on time and gave me a mouth to my office meditation which saved my life. I got a
second
ORDINAL
chance in life and decided to do something good with it. Growing up in a wanted to be a politician to positively change the world. After working as a translator at a renewable energy company she decided to change parts. Solar and wind energy were fully commercialized there were a lot of amazing technologies implemented everywhere I saw that wave energy although it's any men's source of electricity The biggest companies in the world are trying to develop wave energy with no success and there was kind of a race going on in the world of who is the company that is going to develop a viable wave energy solution
first
ORDINAL
In
2011
DATE
the then
24 year old
DATE
in a co founded eco wave power Instead of installing devices offshore the company's devices are attached to existing brake waters jetties and peers Our technology is very cost efficient especially in comparison to the offshore technologies because we don't need any ships, divers, underwater mouring, or cables. We install an existent man made structures and all our expensive equipment, the generator, the hydraulic conversion unit, the automation is located on land just A regular power station. Since
2014
DATE
until
2020
DATE
. Here you can see how the technology works. Basically the floaters are going up and down and pushing the hydro cylinders which transmit by the gradible fluid into land located accumulators. Which is turning the generators. System is controlled by smart automation system which you can see right here and in case of upcoming storms the system automatically raises the floater above the water level and keeps them in the airport position until the storm passes. The company has been operating a
100 kilowatt
QUANTITY
grid connected device in
Gibraltar
GPE
since
2016
DATE
. Which is enough to power
100
CARDINAL
households. Currently ignoring her team are working on another
100 kilowatt
QUANTITY
project at the
Porter Jaffa
PERSON
in
Telavi
GPE
The project will be also the
first
ORDINAL
time in the history of Israel that wave energy will officially connect to the electrical grid And our goal going forward is to expand it to all suitable break waters in the city of
Teluvi
GPE
and to supply significant part of the city's electricity needs.
Today
DATE
engineer is an entrepreneur
Reply significant part of the city's electricity needs.
Today
DATE
engineer is an entrepreneurs are still trying to crack wave energy. Globally only
a few 100 kilowatts
QUANTITY
of wave energy a deployed compared with gigawatts of offshore wind. But the field has come a long way in
recent years
DATE
and with the right engineering solutions this new power source could eventually become competitive with more mature renewables like solar and wind. I would have a lot more confidence in the success wave energy companies
today
DATE
as opposed to like
20 years ago
DATE
but in
the next few years
DATE
or maybe
the next couple of decades
DATE
it it will be more likely to be used in remote locations like islands that are otherwise dependent on expensive
Diesel
ORG
power or out at sea on gasty commissioning rigs or for parring underwater or
Thomas
PERSON
vehicles. So definitely wave energy can compete with other renewable energy sources but I personally believe that this is not a competition. In order to have a
100%
PERCENT
renewable energy friendly world we need all renewable energy sources to work together Yeah. Number
four
CARDINAL
. Hey portal Hey portal can you please tell me? Please wait You know, I've covered a lot of companies. I've covered a lot of
machivalian
NORP
companies Where, you know, people play rough. I don't think I've ever seen anything on the scale that
Nissan
ORG
. It's cool. Post-traumatic elements was revender pasty's home being raided by court officials in
Yokohama
GPE
. So
Rob Posse
PERSON
's journey into the the darkest recess is The
Japanese
NORP
corporate world started when he was the general council the highest corporate lawyer position in the company In
the past few minutes Nissan
TIME
has revealed that it's chairman has been arrested after allegations of serious misconduct. He was tasked with investigating
Carlos Go
PERSON
And he he was told An internal investigation and get to the heart of the manner. Serious conflicts of interest He is
one
CARDINAL
of the few.
And then along the way he started to notice serious conflicts of interest He is
one
CARDINAL
of the few people who knows an extreme amount of detail Ready to tell his own story on the record about some of the events that happened My name's
Ravinda Passy
PERSON
. I'm the former global general
council of Island Motoco Limited
ORG
. And you could say yes I had a front row seat in terms of what was going on. When
Carl
PERSON
is gone
Years ago
DATE
he was depicted in
Japanese
NORP
comic books as this hero and and now maybe we'll see comic books where he's the villain. In corporate
Japan
GPE
, a
Nissan
ORG
was quite an unusual company. It was led for
two decades
DATE
by a
non-Japanese
NORP
executive
Will Carlos Gone
PERSON
was a hero in the
Japan
GPE
In
Japan
GPE
in worldwide it was definitely
Carlos Gown
PERSON
in a country with few foreigners at the top he stood out Lions into
one
CARDINAL
of the most competitive in the world Yet is the years went on you know he I think his ambitions changed a little bit he started thinking about legacy plays and
one
CARDINAL
of them was to really tighten the alliance between renew and
Japan
GPE
And unbe notes to him there was a contingent of senior
Nissan
ORG
executives that were really felt threatened by that move. They really thought that they would lose complete control of the the the car company and even in the government there was probably a little bit of anxiety about A national champion In the auto industry falling under full blown foreign control.
Carlos Gone
PERSON
was an auto industry leader respected by many in
Japan
GPE
He's in jail. Completely out of the blue. This was in
November of 2018
DATE
. He was coming to
Japan
GPE
on
Nissan
ORG
's corporate jet for a regular executive meeting, and he was met on the tarmac by
japanese
NORP
authorities who whistom away to jail, and charged With financial misconduct crimes. So, what happened was it a power struggle ensued inside the company and somewhere along the way, it was criminalized By that I mean that there were allegations leveled at
Carlos Gone
PERSON
about the way he reported his pay to
Japanese
NORP
authorities the way he handled money inside the company that in other contacts might have been a board action might have been held handled
Nissan
ORG
decided to take this this difference and take it over to the
Tokyo
GPE
prosecutors office and that unleashed a chain of events that would shake the entire auto is So after
Carlos Goin
PERSON
was arrested a
Nissan
ORG
launched an internal investigation The events that led up to his arrest. Survive Parcy with task Investigating
Carlo Scone
PERSON
and he he was told yet to the heart of the matter find out what
Carlo Stone
PERSON
did wrong and bring it to our shareholders Yeah it's really complicated because you had Things coming out of the weeds.
2018
DATE
investigation has has started and we become
Aware
ORG
of matters in terms of conflicts actions by certain individuals That cause some concern Because things might not Be what they've seen So, in our story, we really took a close look at
Harinata
PERSON
in his role in
Carlos Gones
PERSON
.
Quite be what they seem So, in our story, we really took a close look at
Harinata
PERSON
in his role in
Carlos Gomes
GPE
downfall.
Harry Nato
PERSON
is
one
CARDINAL
of the most fascinating figures inside
Nissan
ORG
. He's also a lawyer. He's originally
Malaysia
GPE
. And he had a meteoric rise through the company
Became
ORG
very very close to
Carlos Gone
PERSON
and other top figures. He had a front row seat and all the major strategic deliberations at the at the company And when he discovered that
Carlos Gone
PERSON
as his final legacy play Was going to tighten the relationship between
Rano
LOC
and
Nissan
ORG
. He made a decision to go against
Carlos Gone
PERSON
And he became one of the key figures That decided that
Carlos Scone
PERSON
had to go.
Harry Nardo
PERSON
was somebody who actually recruited me into the company. So, I have a long standing Relationship with him or did have a long standing relationship with him. For for many many years he was a mentor. Credibility of the of the process right at the start. I renewed I had a plea deal With the
Tokyo
GPE
prosecutors. That suggests He was intrinsically involved in some of the wrong doing or the allegations of wrong doing It just
Smell
ORG
right. Just doesn't sit right. So, there was a basic conflict of interest. In other words, I had to deliver results
Japanese
NORP
prosecutors to avoid his own criminal liability and he's accusing and leading the investigation of
Carlos Gone
PERSON
. Some of the people who Had been involved in the original alleged crimes. We're also looking into the affairs themselves.
Rovender Posse
ORG
began pointing out some of these conflict of interest issues The reason for that is essentially his concern was for the company If the company is own investigation into itself was compromised that could lead to a very weak position in various losses that it was dealing with across the world. At discussions with
Harry
ORG
discussions about Discussions with HR about some of these conflicts because at that point We reported into him. You know, at the time, everything was quite As you can imagine it was we've gotta do this we've gotta do that we've gotta move fast But when you step back and look at some of these things you just think my God What was going on here because Me Members of my team were being placed in immediate
Danger
PRODUCT
. You're you're They both happen to be forest Certain compliance professionals need to go into He's in
Brazil
GPE
for example and retrieve evidence. They've gotta do it very carefully because if they don't do it carefully they're gonna get convicted Criminal activities Unlikewise A team of lawyers will commission to go to
Lebanon
GPE
. I mean one of my immediate concerns was why are lawyers from
Nissan
ORG
being sent to go to
Lebanon
GPE
to retrieve evidence? These are just lawyers that corporate lawyers from
Nissan
ORG
. You had Revelations that A number of executives that benefited From share appreciation rights When they shouldn't have. I mean, you know, substantive amounts of money being taken by these guys when they weren't entitled to take them. And you do think yes. This code to look later on.
Entitled to take them Do you think yes How was this going to look later on? It's going to look quite concerning. Suvan triggered for me The sort of assessment that well I'm gonna have to do something Because Up until this point I haven't put down on paper These conflicts and these issues So He makes a faithful move. He writes this letter to the board listing Read suspicion he has in great detail backed up by evidence backed up by
memos
PERSON
of why this internal investigation had serious problems. He sends a letter to the board and it's crickets. He doesn't hear much of anything Nothing happened there often Nothing at all. Just like it just gone into a black box. He began to suspect that there was a desire even at the highest level with a Nissan Kind of sweep these conflicts of interest under the rug. For me Think Again with hindsight People must have thought that this is the nail that's sticking out and we can't have this. Within
3 days
DATE
of me submitting that to the board of directors that let's do the independent board directors I was removed from the
Executive
ORG
conduct matters.
Glen
PERSON
told I could not attend board meetings anymore. And up until that point I had attended every single board meeting I was then also told that after
8 years
DATE
of being in
Japan
GPE
I'd be going back to the
UK
GPE
. Eventually transpired that I'd be the VP of projects in transformation managing a team of
three
CARDINAL
. So you can imagine what this feels like at this stage. Removal from
Japan
GPE
where I've lived for
8 years
DATE
had
three
CARDINAL
children there my family has grown up and we've been settled there having
A few months early
DATE
been promoted to Vice President at a global level Demoted So possibly was essentially being reassigned to get him as far away from the internal investigation as possible and also to a certain extent in retaliation to some of the issues that he Recording the internal investigation and horinatta. What happened to rob possi can be seen as a series of of corporate humiliations. I mean,
first
ORDINAL
of all, his immediate responsibilities were taken away from eventually he'd lost, you know, the COVID in general council title. But it didn't stop there. Toward the end of his Hey in
Japan
GPE
And his wife were convinced that they were being followed
Ensuring
PERSON
that period Noticed that once driving my car I'd have other cars following me.
First
ORDINAL
time I noticed this was it around
mid March
DATE
And I was driving. I can't remember where I was going but this gray
van Small van
PERSON
just literally started following me I know just there was somebody in the car taking pictures On lo and behold we were absolutely being followed By either by people on foot Or other individuals
two
CARDINAL
or
three
CARDINAL
normally
two
CARDINAL
burly men in a car different cars at different times following us around
On foot Or other individuals
two
CARDINAL
or
three
CARDINAL
normally
two
CARDINAL
burly men in a car different cars at different times following us around They were following the family as well. You know given We'd seen Right scene the
Nissan
ORG
security department behaving a very very egregious manner with others in terms of following I was very concerned as to what they would do and who they were giving this information to. You do think why What's going on there? I mean this is just not normal. View. Rather dramatic event in
the middle of 2020
DATE
. Who are you people?
Nissan
ORG
had a hired A legal team and had obtained an unusual court order from the district court in
Oklahoma
GPE
to basically do AA search and and of of his home and seizure of his you know corporate laptop My phone and other and other documents. If you don't let us in now, Have to break this key. So it's a pretty extreme Treat someone who spent
16 years
DATE
at the company These people have all come in. We don't really know who they are. Apart from the fact that Shown a badge that says
the Oklahoma Court
ORG
And they're here to to recover a laptop On the mobile phone. It was even more weird I'd highlighted to the directors That there That certainness and executives were trying to recover this laptop and this phone whilst I was still in
Japan
GPE
. And I was very concerned because it had evidence on there that related to misconduct matters The forms of inappropriate conduct. It was just another form of intimidation another form of harassment. Forcing me almost to leave the company And the country. Because once they'd retained an obtained these items We were still followed Which again I just couldn't understand what Point of doing that. You know, this is a not a car company. This is not the
KGB
ORG
. I think it's fair to say that
Rob Posse
PERSON
didn't have full battlefield awareness of all the entry going on at
Nissan
ORG
. I mean, hurry not is interesting because he's both charismatic and charming. And
one
CARDINAL
of the most brutal cor In fighters that one could ever run across. If he had fallen into line he would probably still have his job at
Nissan
ORG
be paid Well and continued his work. A career that he spent, you know,
16 years
DATE
building at
Nissan
ORG
is is your retrievably broken. It's been smashed to
Smith
GPE
,
Smith
GPE
, or
Reigns
PERSON
. He and his family paid a huge price certainly But in terms of being able to sleep at night I think you know he's come out ahead I highlighted issues To the highest levels of the company So that they could be dealt with appropriately by those in charge There was no response to those and there was retaliation against me What's really profound like absolutely profound Is that None of you colleagues. I mean people who you have known for
years
DATE
. Forget it. Yeah. You're on your roof. And Yeah you gotta be ready for that Gotta be ready for that If you take it on anyway
This is the awful truth Always someone in the family that's pushing it. This lady Does not deserve to be taken advantage of At your age with your own grandchild. Yeah. My grandma is having to sue them i'm testifying against them nobody's talking they're
one four
CARDINAL
below right now I get afraid to go on the elevator it's sad that it had to devolve to this it's like
a Hey Facebook Thing
WORK_OF_ART
. Here's a family that on paper you would think has the wealth that so many people seek yet at
the end of the day
DATE
it's seem to sort of rip everybody apart My name is
Tom Schoenberg
PERSON
I'm a senior reporter here at
Bloomberg News
ORG
cover financial enforcement I was approached by someone close to the Sean
Stein
PERSON
family and asked whether or not I would be interested in writing about
Beverly Shottenstein
GPE
and this case that she had Against
J. P. Morgan
PERSON
. It was immediately clear that there was great story here to be told. So, I started just, you know, assembling all sorts of documents that the family made available to me that included a diary that
Beverly
GPE
had begun writing when she started having suspicions about what was actually going on with her money. Beverly obtained her wealth from the shot and steam had a retail empire that has at times included big lots, value city,
American Eagle Outfitters
ORG
,
DSW
ORG
shoes,
Beverly
ORG
's husband died, and at which point they sold off their portion of the company, bringing them enormous amount of wealth and around
1990
DATE
. Her grandson in
the late 2000's
DATE
had both graduated were becoming financial advisors she gave them a little bit to work with and over time her grandson
Evan
PERSON
became the trustee of her entire state. Managing sort of family money is not a conflict. In fact, some ways in wealth management, it's kinda how you get your start. It's kinda the seed that you need to sort of get going in the business but Beverly started.
Is not a conflict. In fact, some ways in wealth management. It's kinda how you get your start. It's kinda the seed that you need to sort of get going in the business. But
Beverly
GPE
started having suspicions that something was wrong probably and around
2016
DATE
. Well there were suspicious Things but taken separately without everyone talking about their own Says it was hard to really put it together. Had written a check to her caretaker Dawn that bounced so she went down to her local chase branch to sort of find out what was going on she wasn't getting paper statements in the mail so she asked them to print out a number of her statements having to do with her checking account And her credit card account. So we went to the bank and ask for the statements. And she got a whole year and going through all of them page by page by page. It was there she saw all sorts of charges that she said she didn't authorize or didn't know about. Very suspicious. Start to look at the money part and that's what bothered me more when I saw that money was going and I was not a big spender. In around the same time John she starts noticing
Beverly
ORG
's son who lived in the condominium below her came up with
Evan
PERSON
with a shredder and started grabbing papers in her office area including some with
JP Morgan Letterhead
ORG
and just started sitting at the kitchen table just shredding documents over and over They came in
one morning
TIME
. Through the backdoor. And they brought this threader inside And then they went in the drawers in the office sent to God all the papers and they start to doing it I was very suspicious because I know you don't go round and get in destroying papers
Beverly
ORG
said that they had done this many times before When she said to me you know Dawn i'm gonna write my feelings in this black book. Each day she would write a little at a time. Around
the holidays of
DATE
2018
DATE
the package had arrived the
FedEx
GPE
package and in it were
Beverage For
ORG
this fund to the
two
CARDINAL
and over
five 1 million dollars
MONEY
over the course of
several years
DATE
. Really the beginning of it that was
Sort
PERSON
of the tip of the iceberg when it became That something was going on that my grandmother really wasn't aware of this funge. You know,
Beverly
GPE
started to panic. She was got really upset and called, you know,
J. P. Morgan's
PERSON
headquarters in
New York
GPE
and ask for
Jamie Diamond
PERSON
. She said she was told someone would call her back. But she says that that never happened. She wrote a letter to
Evan
PERSON
and
Abby
PERSON
and in there, she she laid out a number of things that Worth of jewelry in a safe deposit box and that her son
Bobby
PERSON
had the key to that box. That jewelry had gone missing. All this was kinda packaged in this, you know,
five
CARDINAL
page, handwritten amendment tool and trust. Evolving narrative about why the joy was taken the only truth we really know is that the jewelry is gone but why it happened there been a lot of different stories you just don't take your mother's Wonderful things in hand it out. Email that note to
JP Morgan
ORG
to sees all activity on her account. After that. And change brokerage firms. They were actually vacationing
one four
QUANTITY
below downstairs through there right now.
The next day
DATE
,
Beverly
ORG
's in her her place. A granddaughter still in in Place visiting Don is there Up comes
Bobby kinda
PERSON
barging through the door and he's screaming about what.
Granddaughter still in in her place visiting Don is there and up comes
Bobby kinda
PERSON
barging through the door and he's screaming about what was sent to the JP Morant they're now investigating now And he's furious takes his mother in sort of puts her into a chair gets pen and paper She says physically forced her to write a retraction letter. Pushing me around. Time i was really afraid to i had to take her to the doctor Did an X ray Vacation was in so much pain. The phone number had to be changed. Gonna have to hire guard to be outside just for protection. Was terrible. Beverly brought a case before the financial industry regulatory authorities usually known as Finra it took
several months
DATE
of hearings she sees all sorts of transactions that's going on
hundreds
CARDINAL
of them that she claims that she never knew about never JP
Morgan
PERSON
's files is having been direct request from her Sale of a large amount of apple stock worth
several one 1 million dollars
MONEY
as well as all her stocking big lots. We're making all sorts of trading on her account that was generating
millions of dollars
MONEY
in commissions for themselves in the bank yet she Violating their Representing themselves and they also found that the bank and her grandson
Evan
PERSON
reliable for elder abuse.
Evan
PERSON
and Avi they were fired from
J. P. Morgan
PERSON
. They issued an award of
about 19 1 million dollars
QUANTITY
. I reached out for comment and
J. P. Morgan
PERSON
emphasized that
Evan
PERSON
and Avi were no longer with the You know the law and the facts that
Finn
PERSON
were kind of used to decide the case against them and are seeing if they can have it withdrawn Her son
Bobby Criminals
PERSON
and he also admits to taking her jewelry and he says he needed it to pay off some bad business debts he had Say never once came up to say i'm sorry.
Bin
PERSON
and apology Acceptance I don't think we'd be in the position that we are now. Since the piece came out, we've, you know, we received
dozens
CARDINAL
of messages from people. Many of whom are telling their own. So, the personal tales of Kind of financial advisors gone bad or family members who You know those within Seems sad it's really it's really resonated with a lot of people who I Keep you know hearing a lot of feedback about beverly and how you know a lot of people feel she did the right thing. To stand up for yourself and try to write an injustice she was adamant that she wanted to stand up for herself but at
the end of the day
DATE
They did wrong It's painful life lesson. You know Beverly taught them that you don't mess with grandma.
On
April 20
DATE
oil markets did something that never happened before and they crashed went into negative territory and close
the day
DATE
at
minus $40
MONEY
meanwhile In a place called The group of
nine
CARDINAL
traders led by a guy called cuddlers made
660 1 million dollars
MONEY
over the course of
a couple of hours
TIME
. The price of oil has collapsed to a record low. We've never really seen anything like it. WTI this morning down
more than 35%
PERCENT
. But the all price went to minus 38 it went far lower than anyone had expected and so lots of people on the market were saying well hang on something else is going on here
A couple of months later
DATE
I started to get wind through a kind of network of sources that a tiny firm in their outskirts of
London
GPE
had made a huge amount of money
that day
DATE
and potentially had some part to play and what happened? The information we got was the
nine
CARDINAL
traders of
vaca capital
ORG
London
GPE
had made in the region of
660 1 million dollars
MONEY
in
1 day
DATE
as a group I think they made as much money in
1 day
DATE
as
Apple
ORG
makes from its international sales in
1 day
DATE
I mean it's an insane some of mine did they pull off a fantastic trade did they predict the way the market was Absolutely right or was there something else going on and had they actually And that investigation is is ongoing. So
Paul Commons
ORG
is a trader who cut his teeth in in the pits in the the
80s
DATE
and 90s when everyone had a nickname his was cuddles
Imagine
ORG
that was a very sort of Type of world where people are doing you know
hundreds of thousands and millions of dollars
CARDINAL
trades by Each other Giving hand signals and then scrolling on scraps of paper The culture of the trading pits in
London
GPE
was very influenced by the working class guys who became traders there. They weren't like the city bankers that had gone before them. They weren't usually
Oxford
ORG
or
Cambridge
GPE
, you know, they didn't wear saddle row suits. They were ordinary working guys. You happen to have a talent for trading. Came from Essex. Things
400
CARDINAL
traders in the pets and cuddles in his you know all in gas paint was described to us as amongst the top
three
CARDINAL
among you know in amongst that was very successful and and made you know very large amounts of money as a as a young man but you know inevita Hey mechanization and the arrival of electronic markets was the kind of death now for the pits and in
2005
DATE
the
IPE
ORG
closed down and when the pit shutdown a lot of the traders who worked there lost their jobs or quits or went to work for financial institutions but
Paul
PERSON
comments decided to start his own Some of them are ex pit guys cut from the same cloth as him lots of them are actually sort of in their
20s
ORDINAL
and they're his you know drinking buddies son or there he's own kids friends from football you know they're they're young lads
Hungry
GPE
and ambitious and he brings them into the fold and fairly shortly he's got you know maybe
a dozen
CARDINAL
or so traders that they're independent let's be clear but they're all part of this collective. Yeah I'll let Liam do with Essex I am from Essex so I feel like I'm free to you know to gain to this. Sweet as they say. If you want to ask someone in
Britain
GPE
how they would imagine AA conversics person. They would see someone who's maybe slightly flamboyant with AA sort of cockney accent, a sort of Which you start actually.
Sounds slightly flamboyant with a cockney accent guy
Richie
PERSON
style accent You know, not afraid to splash the cash but it's probably pretty bright and it's done well for themselves. But you know these guys they drove around very nice Rolls Royces and
Bentley
ORG
's they went to places like
Mar Bayer
PERSON
on holiday Fading boys is very wealthy place. You have to have considerable income to be able to afford to live in that village. It's a really nice place to live. And it's
20 minutes
TIME
to cheap ride away from the city.
Earlier in the summer
TIME
we have this lead which is that there's this tiny firm called
Vega Capital London
ORG
They were the biggest winners from the biggest oil crash in history. You know, anyone that covers markets is gonna be surprised about that. You know, you're thinking your BPs of the world, your
Glen
PERSON
course, but is this tiny firm and
one
CARDINAL
of the big challenges that we had was actually finding out who worked with
Vega Capital
PERSON
. It wasn't immediately obvious, not
first
ORDINAL
we had absolutely no idea. If you go to the Capital website it says it's under construction If you do basic online searching it's very difficult to find anyone who's publicly connected to the company. So inevitably we're incredibly curious at this point. Like who the hell are these people? The more reporting we did the more it became clear that this group were connected socially as well as professionally. They went to weddings together. They played golf together. They would go on holiday together. We found out that a number of them were members over the West Ham supporters club in
London
GPE
. A few of them started Companies together so you could see all the connections between them and start to see a distinct group emerging. And it really just was this kind of shock that you know this wasn't just like a hedge fund or a firm you'd never heard of. This was actually a group of buddies who all had the same experience on
this day
DATE
and it had Made a huge amount of money. So if you're an oil trader there's a number of different ways you can trade and and probably the most popular is WTI futures contracts and it's basically a contract that says I'm gonna buy
a 1000 barrels
QUANTITY
of oil from you at this point in the future or I'm going to sell a 1000 barrels of oil to you This point in the future. It's actually just a financial contract to gamble on to predict whether oil is gonna go up or down. On
the 20th of April
DATE
in Essex there have been signals for a while that this was gonna be
an exceptional day
DATE
in oil markets and we know that some of them arose early and started their trading in
the early hours of the morning
TIME
while it was still dark outside Essentially what they were doing is buying contracts that gave them An obligation to buy oil at whatever the price ended up at
2:30 PM
TIME
. So they're basically placing a bet that oil's gonna fall throughout
the day
DATE
. But the simultaneously sailing lots of oil as well. And the weather they make a profit and how much profit they make is the difference between what they buy the oil for and what they sell the oil for. Now of course we now know throughout
April 20
DATE
the price dropped and dropped. So this is going very well for them You know they are committed to selling oil at these prices and the prices are continuing to fall which means they're gonna be able to offset it and buy oil at cheaper at
the end of the day
DATE
. Now once it gets to
kinda
GPE
1:32 PM
TIME
: that's when things start to get really Suddenly there's a kind of influx of of buyers and sellers you know desperation increases in the market and trading volumes go up now
2:08 PM
TIME
: exactly something bizarre and unprecedented happened And it fell to a record level of
minus $38
MONEY
. We've never seen anything like it period in terms of the contraction of the global economy. Huge golf between what they were buying the oil for what they were selling it for and able them to make more money than they ever thought possible. So they're profit was the difference between Minus 37 and all of these positive numbers on every contract they sold. The price of crude briefly hit
minus $37
MONEY
a barrel for
one
CARDINAL
group of traders operating from a small office. It was a very very profitable day. It's important to remember this this had never happened before in the history of all trading. No one could have predicted it. I can't think of another example of where Interest rate or you get paid on both side you get paid both to sell
Interest rate do you get paid on both side you get paid both to sell
One
CARDINAL
thing we know about the cuddles trading arcade is that they were very comfortable taking large risks and you know you have to be clear this was a large risk yeah we spoke to oil traders both people that know these guys and people that don't and they also say that this is you know incredibly risky and that's actually Stops a lot of all traders doing trading like this. They simply aren't willing to stomach the risk. But cuddles and his friends were So when they're kind of final calculations came down the group of the
nine
CARDINAL
most profitable traders made
660 1 million dollars
MONEY
or thereabouts between them I mean if you can imagine I think
three
CARDINAL
or
four
CARDINAL
of them made in excess of
100 1 million
QUANTITY
each Wanna be astonishing things about this trade is that
two
CARDINAL
of the individuals who made
more than 100 1 million dollars
CARDINAL
in
a single day
DATE
were in their 20s.
One
CARDINAL
of them was
22 years old
DATE
. You know,
only a few years earlier
DATE
, he'd been posting on his social media about doing teenage stuff with his mates in town and going to see girls and rap music and here he is
Years later
DATE
making
100 1 million dollars
MONEY
in
a single day's
DATE
trading. When me and
Liam
PERSON
discovered that we were just we couldn't believe it. We couldn't believe what we were seeing. All trading is a is a oh sum game anytime you're making money is an all trade as someone else is losing it amongst the biggest losers were the investors in this
Chinese
NORP
fund crude oil treasure fund There were
thousands
CARDINAL
of them and they lost everything. Lots of people have put their savings into oil funds. They lost money
that day
DATE
. Big banks and brokers who sort of stand in the middle of trading parties. They lost money
that day
DATE
. And another interesting thing is the oil producing countries like Q eight or
Canada
GPE
. They sell oil. An average of the WTI closing price over
the proceeding month
DATE
so the fact that one of those numbers in the average was minus 37 meant if you can imagine countries like
Saudi Arabian
NORP
Q
eight
CARDINAL
potentially lost
a couple of dollars
MONEY
on every single barrel of all they sold
that month
DATE
.
Beg
PERSON
a capital's traders made such an extraordinary sum of money that it was inevitable they would be some scrutiny of what they did but it wasn't just the sums of money they made in a vital half an hour before the settlement price was set they were by far the biggest sellers of all future Which is an incredible thing to think about when you consider that the other participants in that all market are gonna be the world's biggest banks you know oil majors
BP
ORG
and shell and here you have a group of
nine
CARDINAL
guys in Essex who are having a significant influence over a global market for oil I think you have to assume that if these guys have made
seven 1 million
QUANTITY
or
10 1 million dollars
MONEY
they probably would be celebrating in Essex right now but the fact that they made closer to
700 1 million
QUANTITY
has meant that they are facing understandable scrutiny we wrote individually to all the all the bega traders Did exceptionally well
that day
DATE
and we got a letter in response from a law firm who representing the group The law firm was at
Pains
ORG
to point out
number one
CARDINAL
they haven't been accused of any wrong doing That they all traded independently and separately and they'd basically all made up their own minds that this was what was going to happen in oil markets based on publicly available knowledge and decided to execute this trade. What I love about these stories is there's a real variance of opinion and some people will look at what happened and think that must be dodgy. They all traded at
the end of the day
DATE
. They all made a huge amount of money while all these people lost. That's But lots of people say these guys are acute disadvantage. They're in a market. There's inhabited by, you know, huge Technology driven And firms and oil giants that have got all the advantages in the world and when you get a bunch of Essex geezers who essentially beat the market and find a way to make a huge amount of money they should get a pat on the back really because that's the dream. Since this happened The guys have stopped trading the
monthly
DATE
settlements that they've done so well out in the past. Several of them have set up new companies. They've essentially gone very quiet. You know, you kinda social media presence they had is Is.
Clements that they've done so well out in the past. Several of them have set up new companies. They've essentially gone very quiet. You know, you kinda social media presence they had is is
Kinda
GPE
close down by all accounts there Waiting this out. It's certainly too early to try and predict how the regulatory investigations are gonna pan out you know we just don't know There's a number of potential outcomes for these guys. You know, potential punishments if there are any findings of manipulation against
Vega
PERSON
or anyone affiliated with it, might be, you could be fined, you could be banned from trading, You know in the most extreme cases there have even been criminal prosecutions in the past Of a people who have been found to have been manipulating the settlements and misconduct related to to trade at settlement. There are other outcomes too. You know one
one
CARDINAL
obvious one is gonna be they're able to walk away from this life changing trade. With all the money that they made and celebrated is heroes in the training community that you know they'll go As legends. It's very important given that nature of the climate crisis right now for the general public to have an understanding of what progress is or is not actually happening and I think many readers right now Big bold climate claims. And they would be forgiven to think that Well on our way to meeting the emission reduction trajector
Need
PERSON
to be on. For this sort of disconnect is the use of offsets that aren't doing what they claim to be doing We have a massive potential for sort of willful blindness we can convince ourselves of things regardless of what the facts are and so that's what tends to happen in these cases it's not It's not that anybody is setting out to commit climate fraud They they sort of walk themselves into a situation and they convince themselves of
one
CARDINAL
thing and that allows them to convince themselves of another thing But at
the end of the day
DATE
, they're doing something that makes no sense at all. My name is
Ben Elgin
PERSON
I wrote the story about how the
one 1 billion dollars
MONEY
market for carbon offsets is setting back the fight against climate change. So
one
CARDINAL
of the challenges in reporting on carbon offsets and trying to figure out what's going on is really finding good experts who who have been steeped in this marketplace and are willing to candidly talk about it
One
CARDINAL
of the best people for this is a fellow named
Mark Trexler
PERSON
and I've been talking to him for
more than a decade
DATE
. My name is
Mark Krexler
PERSON
. I've worked in climate change for
the last 30 years
DATE
. I was actually hired by
the World Resources Institute
ORG
in
Washington
GPE
to work on the
first
ORDINAL
carbon offset project In
1988
DATE
In terms of defining a carbon offset that
one
CARDINAL
of the beauties so to speak of greenhouse gases sort of the silver lining of greenhouse gases When you put up a molecule or
COtwo
ORG
into the atmosphere it can be anywhere in the planet in
7 days
DATE
. And therefore, you know, if there's an option to reduce emissions on the other side of the planet and you can do that very cheaply as compared to doing it in your factory for example, then, why not pay that person, that factory on the other side To reduce their emissions Then you are in a sense of setting Emissions and the atmosphere doesn't really.
At factory on the other side of the planet to reduce their emissions Then you are in a sense of setting your emissions and the atmosphere doesn't really see your emissions anymore So carbon objects have been been around for quite some time and they were actually key with these international climate agreements such as the
Keoto
PERSON
protocol which mandated the wealthiest Reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The treaty was signed on
the 11th of December 1997
DATE
. A business community General Measures might be coming down the pike on climate change much more cost effectively We've seen a huge surge in companies making big proclamations about how they're going carbon neutral or oh in out all of their carbon emission Carbon footprint and at oh. Believers committing to net oh initiative
Achieve
PRODUCT
a net oh admissions world. We began looking at these corporate claims of of dramatically reduced emissions and we noticed so many of these companies were using carbon offsets to to to achieve these aims. And as we begin to look at the carbon offset projects themselves We found is that the environmental benefits claimed by these companies are not actually what they what they seem to be. As we sort of saw and spotted a number of these very aggressive carbon offset projects which appeared to be generating inflated credits or bogus credits We saw a number of them were associated with the nature conservancy. This surprised us the nature conservancy is the world's biggest environmental group they have about a
one 1 billion dollars
MONEY
a year in revenues And they've been around for
seven decades
DATE
They've preserved
about 125 1 million acres
QUANTITY
of land And they've done so many good works over
the years
DATE
and they've been very strong in terms of working with corporate partners. The nature conservancy is taken a different approach. A very pragmatic and pro business approach. They will not go out and criticize a big polluter. But Very happy to work with them Some might say that well that's selling out but others would say and and those at the nature conservancy would say these companies have deep pockets. They can help fund important preservation And we have absolutely no problem working with them on this stuff So companies are very warm and and they've partnered with the Nature Conservancy for for many And yeah let definitely lends a sheen of credibility to these projects. Disney world
this year
DATE
. If you look at for instance Disney that's a sprawling company with theme parks and cruise lines that burn up Diesel fuel. They have office buildings and television studios. I consume electricity. Footprints but it's very difficult to change these fundamental ways their business is operate. So Disney has been a big buyer of carbon offsets that are orchestrated by the nature conservancy.
One
CARDINAL
of the projects that they buy from is called pennsylvania ridges. And that's a plot of land. Most of the land is actually
about 3 hour
TIME
drive outside of
Philadelphia
GPE
. Interestingly this land 3000 of these acres was actually acquired by the nature conservancy in
the late 1990's
DATE
. This land was immediately threatened. There was a pending logging contract on this land. So, they they do what they they've done so well for all of these years which is they go out. They raise money from local phanthoris and they go Developers and loggers. And at the time according to an archive version of the nature conservancy's They when they were proudly announcing this deal they said these threats have been abated because of Acquisition by the nature conservancy.
These threats have been abated because of Acquisition by the nature conservancy. So, it's really interesting now. Fast forward
two decades to earlier this year
DATE
when they put forward this carbon project And if you look through it this land is a key part of that carbon project And what they're now saying is this land is now once again imminently threatened
72%
PERCENT
of the trees are gonna be cut within
5 years Now
DATE
, this is just astounding because this land is owned by the nature conservancy. They do not clear cut land that they've bought through philanthropic donations. So this scenario that they've put forward to get carbon revenues is not really plausible And what that means is when you have Disney coming in and and buying these credits. When it eventually lowers its carbon footprint because of these credits well that won't be incredible or truthful claim by
Disney
ORG
. So this is this is an organization that truly understands the the threat of the issue of of climate change and is wanting to do its part to address this However in this situation it just appears there there drive which they've had for
decades
DATE
to increase the amount of revenues that it can use for land preservation work Nature conservancy and many others see that carbon credits as a pot of money that they can tap into to Further their own benevolent aims but unfortunately what this has resulted in is claims of climate progress that just aren't really happening. So the nature conservancy defends vigorously these deals and and they and and others will say look our projects are just following the rules that these registries So somewhat also put some of the blame on the reg Themselves because they're setting up the rules which allow these vapor projects to get up and sold. So we've reached out to all of the companies we mentioned in the story including Disney that didn't want to be interviewed for the story but they Hold us that look we have to rely on the experts out there and those experts they say are these carbon registries that have been set up Most of these nature conservancy deals are set up and sold on this exchanges called
the American Carbon Registry
ORG
. Now it's the oldest of these regist Allow voluntary carbon credits to be sold. They've been around since
1996
DATE
. What these offset registries do is they set up rules Carbon offset project has to follow those rules But there's this tension that's always there if Then it's gonna be very hard for carbon offset projects to get up and running. So, there's this this balance going on where the registries want rules that attract projects but they don't want it to be so strict where it will Disincentivize projects from getting listed
One
CARDINAL
of the the challenges with with designing carbon offset systems is that there are normally
two
CARDINAL
people at the table. You have buyers and you have sellers and to some extent, you have policy makers but but you know, the buyers and the sellers are really the ones with the expertise with the with the To really participate hard make a lot of things happen And the the challenge there is is that both of them sort of want the same thing or they're both happy with the same thing. They're happy with low cost, offsets, and a lot of them because that works for their business model. You end up though with nobody really representing the atmosphere so to speak nobody's really representing the climate And and you you end up in sort of a race to the bottom and that's what we've seen happen. And when it comes specifically to the topic of carbon offsets Climate change. They absolutely can't. Bye you know if we're not going to do it correctly in a way that actually does.
Fan of carbon offsets in the sense that they can help mitigate climate change. They absolutely can. Climate change then it's nothing but a distraction. And you know, after
30 years
DATE
, you have to start wondering, is it really just a distraction? And that's really unfortunate but that's where we are. Ultimately, what needs to be, what needs to happen is systemic change. You know, we're we're sort of nibbling around the edges with some of these different things. We need to change how we produce energy. We need to change how we transport ourselves. We need to change what and how we eat. We need systemic change Associated with transitioning to a low carbon economy. A lot of what we're doing
today
DATE
is not promoting systemic change it's sort of trying to stick your your your thumb in the dike To preserve the current system And and at the end of the day that can't really The hyperloop. There's a good chance you've heard the name by now. This is the hyper loop system. It can take people
hundreds of miles
QUANTITY
in
minutes
TIME
. Ultra high speeds over long distances. New form of transportation that can whisk people from city to city in a flash
9 minutes
TIME
from
New York to
GPE
DC
GPE
30 minutes
TIME
from
LA
GPE
to
San Francisco
GPE
For
years
DATE
we've been seeing these futuristic utopian renderings of some cross between a spaceship and a monogram But lately the hyperloop is becoming much more real. Yes. It was surreal to be in sitting inside a hyperloop and just even more incredible to actually be like writing down a track in something that was nothing more than a crazy idea
6 years
DATE
before. Companies all around the world have been developing and testing the technology needed to propel passengers speeds of over 1000 km per hour. But for many, speed is only the
first
ORDINAL
step to unlocking the full transformational effects of a new mode of transportation. Fast is what we just sort of take for granted in the hyperloop world. It's the network effects that really deliver the benefit. And that opens up a completely different scale of economic We've got plans
One
CARDINAL
bills and boats. We're getting around to earth. What if there was a fifth mode? And I have a name for it. Name for it which is called the hyperloop. Hybrid. In
2013
DATE
while riding high on the growing success of Tesla and SpaceX
Elon Musk
PERSON
released a white paper outlining the basic framework of the technology he called hyperloop. The basic idea goes a little something like this. A
two
CARDINAL
produces the air pressure to a near vacuum
Paper. Outlining the basic framework of the technology he called hyperloop. The basic idea goes a little something like A
two
CARDINAL
produces the air pressure to a near vacuum like environment. A hyperloop pod has been suspended in the tube. Usually by magnetic levitation. The whole pod can then be propelled forward. Because there's no traditional friction sources like irresist Or rolling friction that would push back against the pod the hyperloop is able to move an incredibly high speeds and do so fairly efficiently Despite its futuristic name however the general concept behind hyperloop is actually pretty old. In fact
New York City's
GPE
first
ORDINAL
attempt at an underground public transit system in
1870
DATE
's was based on a similar principle. The pneumatic transit system was short lived however only stretching
one
CARDINAL
block and topping out at a rather leisurely
10 mph
QUANTITY
. While
Elon
ORG
would make
some 21st century
DATE
improvements to this concept and bestow of
a 21st century
DATE
name. He wouldn't end up pursuing the technology itself. Like to focus his efforts on something a little bit deeper. Digging the reckless tunnels via his boring company. It would take another billionaire industrialist to dabble some space flight Wait, not that one. Yeah, that's the one After
Richard Branson
PERSON
would make a large investment in the company hyperloop one it would be renamed to virgin hyperloop. Been trying to do as a company Ultimately it's something that's happening in
the next couple of years
DATE
not
the next 20 years
DATE
.
Josh Geigel
PERSON
is the co-founder and CEO of
Virgin Hyperloop
PERSON
In a familiar text startup story he seen the project go from a garage to a large scale testing facility outside of
Las Vegas Building
GPE
the
first
ORDINAL
kind of hyperloop system in
2016
DATE
we've done a lot of work
about 500
CARDINAL
tests that we've done a matter of
the last 5 years
DATE
What we realize that we need to do is take that technology show that it can be commercial so drive the cost down improve the efficiency approval performance but the key thing is you know is actually making it approachable and safe for individuals. In order to do that
Josh
PERSON
along with
Virgin
PERSON
's head of passenger experience saraluchi bravely volunteered to take the inaugural ride With her and I were realizing it's like we're the
first
ORDINAL
two
CARDINAL
people sitting in a hyper The only type of people that have gone through this environment or in space it's in there we are in just like normal clothes because of the system the safety of what we designed really
Two Watch
PERSON
. We accelerated a little bit harder than we would in commercial. Be like a sports car. We got
about 108
CARDINAL
mi an hour on that test and it's a short run. It's
about 500 yards
QUANTITY
or so Came to a stop Lasting
only about 20 seconds
TIME
and covering only a quarter per mile at
just over 100 mph
QUANTITY
is a long way away from a true functioning hyperloop but as for optics it's a crucial step for the future funding. The number
one
CARDINAL
question we got from investors are from project proponents or just people in general was like is a hyperloop safe In what better way to show something is safe than by actually getting people on it But convincing investors and governments that would likely be fronting some of the construction costs for an unproven technology there's no easy task
First
ORDINAL
and foremost is the question of safety. Most people don't know how an airplane works but yet they get on an airplane. They get on an airplane because you know, it's faster than driving and most importantly, they've probably gotten off of
one
CARDINAL
before they've seen someone get off of one before. And so what we set out to do was actually show that hyperlip could be safe with
two
CARDINAL
normal people not astronauts not adrenaline junkies or test pilots or anything like that too normal people getting on a hyper lube and then most importantly this
two
CARDINAL
people getting off. But
Beyonce
GPE
concerns constructing hyperloops will undoubtedly require a significant capital investment to be estimated tune of around
60 1 million US dollars
MONEY
per kilometer of track
Disco
ORG
to
Los Angeles
GPE
for example is likely to come with a price tag over
10 1 billion dollars
MONEY
and before large governments are willing to come in and front those costs investors who are funding hyperloop development must
Is likely to come with a price tag over
10 1 billion dollars
MONEY
. And before large governments are willing to come in and front those costs investors who are funding hyperloop development must accept it as a long term mixture of technology and infrastructure investing. Investors that are used to short returns because you're developing apps or something to that effect, you know, those aren't the investors that really get excited about hyperloop. What you start to see is the people that are looking at platform technology, right? So, this idea that because the smartphone existed, Uber could exist. And that's the part where you're gonna get a lot more nose than yeses. Those are the people that were looking for Since we've done that passenger test there has been a lot of interest that's really oh this is a lot sooner than I thought. Envisioning the ripple effects of what hyperloop could achieve those fairly challenging at this stage of development It's fast yes but for point to point travel traditional mag live trains can move pretty fast as well. And outside of
China
GPE
,
South Korea
GPE
, and
Japan
GPE
, even those haven't seen much adoption elsewhere due to the high costs and questionable profitability. The
Shanghai
GPE
line in
China
GPE
for example loses
around 100 1 million dollars
MONEY
every year
DATE
. Hyperloop companies, however, believe they can offer something different than traditional railway lines. My name is
Alan James
PERSON
And as far as I know I'm the only guy on the planet who's written a government level business case for
KMH
ORG
conventional high-speed rail
500
CARDINAL
co mate and
1000
CARDINAL
KMH hyperloop. It's fundamentally about moving people from where they are to where they want to go when they want to make those journeys and doing it in much smaller numbers so pod designs for hyperloop range from
12 to 20
CARDINAL
Seats
NORP
typically Why are they small It's because small enables the network to operate flexibly. I'm a great example of that. Is the east west strategic route across the north of
England
GPE
? From
Liverpool
GPE
to
Manchester
PERSON
to leads. So to get from
Liverpool
GPE
via
Manchester
PERSON
to By train is just short of
2 hours
TIME
today
DATE
. It'll probably take you
2 hours
TIME
driving as well in in average traffic condition Let result is those
three
CARDINAL
city regions remain
three
CARDINAL
separate entities
Liverpool
GPE
,
Manchester
GPE
,
Leeds
PERSON
. There's very little commuting traffic Between those urban areas Hyperloop Changes that from the ground up.
Liverpool
GPE
to
Manchester
PERSON
is
5
CARDINAL
or
6 minute
TIME
journey
Manchester
PERSON
to leads is also a
5 or 6 minute
TIME
journey. What effectively does is create a single super city economy. In this vision the hyperloop acts a little more like a highway where pods have fixed destinations and don't need to stop along the way. Meaning you can travel on a hyperloop network from say
Liverpool
GPE
to leads while the pod behind you travels from
Liverpool
GPE
to
Manchester
PERSON
. And if that
metro
FAC
hyperloop network is connected to other networks from the same location you could travel from
Liverpool
GPE
to
Paris
GPE
or
Liverpool
GPE
to
Amsterdam
GPE
all without making a single stop. For passengers For business Pleasure that is utterly transformational. For high value freight and logistics it's equally transformation But critically If you do a hyperlute network at scale You begin to deliver
Massive
PERSON
.
Transformation. Critically You do a hyperloot network at scale. You begin to deliver Massively significant carbon savings to A multi-regional hyperloop network could become a replacement for both short haul passenger and cargo flights and traditional ground transportation Of which are significant carbon producers. Hyperloop connected distribution hub Perhaps at an airport that is predominantly used for international air freight Maybe
10, 12
DATE
, Distributed road hubs. It takes a lot of polluting and inefficient truck college off the roads. That itself means roads gay next to a capacity. Hyperloops will still need to use electricity to both move pods and maintain the near vacuum environment too Performance of the technology believe that this could be done by using renewable sources including a combination of solar panels and battery technology. They could be used along the hyper loop itself. But even with all multipliers of time and carbon emission savings that a hyperloop network may provide the investment capital required to actually build such a network becomes even more economically and politically Committing doesn't mean spending
billions
CARDINAL
on day one Committing means How do we face it
One
CARDINAL
company and the
Netherlands
GPE
is working to develop that technology and perhaps more importantly the international coalition needed to make the hyperloop network a reality. So we are here in
Europe
LOC
's
first
ORDINAL
full scale hype with this facility Or we can already prove every conceptual technology of the
iPhone
ORG
. This is
Tim Houder
PERSON
a co-founder and CEO of Hart Hyperloop Headquartered in the city of
Delph
ORG
. And while this testing tube might not seem as large as others inside is key technology to create the on and off ramp type infrastructure of a hyperloop network that is a lane switch. Can already pass through your connection The trick is diversity from one track into
two
CARDINAL
the next possible to eventually split up the
iPhone
ORG
track in
Group
GPE
network to travel for example over I think
Europe
LOC
for example As you can now travel with a metro in the city The nice thing about this magnetic levitation system that we have developed is that there's absolutely oh moving components in the track. I'm so for example if you have to do a lane switch All you do is that's the
two
CARDINAL
basically splits up And statically the tricks also split up And whenever the vehicle enters a switch it either pulls itself to the right with this Or pools itself to the left with it magnets.
Lane
PERSON
switching on traditional rail requires the physical movement of the rail. Even modern magnetic levitation tracks use lane switching techniques in order to transfer trains from
one
CARDINAL
track to another. Very crucial elements because this is the thing that limits the capacity In the end the usefulness of the real network. Because the moment that a track is switching that means that at that moment you are creating an unsafe environment for the trains behind it so you need a lot of space between drinks Because you have no moving components in the track. All the vehicles can be much closer to each other. You can achieve a very high frequency and basically have a vehicles moving and merging in and out of the network very much like a highway. For now though Heart's
Physical Testing
ORG
has been limited by the size of their tube Because the test track is only 30 m long they haven't tested this lane switch at speed's greater than
20 km per hour
QUANTITY
however the company is working to build a new test site We're plans to increase that testing speed to
300 km per hour
QUANTITY
. Where we have proven most of the most important technologies in the test facilities that we already have And we have also demonstrated
Per hour. We're not gonna face where we have proven most of the most important technologies. In the test facilities And we have also demonstrated the viability and the feasibility of a network If you look at all the top systems that it consists of most of those are proven systems are very demonstrated in lap conditions so we don't really believe that the technology itself is going to be the biggest challenge Because for all hyperloop companies out there actually building a hyperloop system requires more than just a good product. We're talking about the safety aspects we're talking about integration into the environment. We're talking about social aspects. Do people feel comfortable travelling in such a system. So it's about all these different aspects And the complexity is really getting all the different stakeholders that are relevant. And that needs to contribute to bring this to market. To get them all The same rope map. In order to help build this coalition of private and public interest in hyperloop development heart in
2018
DATE
partner with other hyperlip companies from
Europe
LOC
and
Canada
GPE
The goal was to define establishing standardize the framework to regulate hyperlip systems. Right now, we are working with all the hyperloop developers together in setting up the first let's say I structure for the for The standards drafting. Most important goals for heart is interoperability Which is essentially making sure the different systems can communicate with each other Interpretability is so important because what we want to achieve is actually have this seamless travel experience so you don't want to end up for example going from
Madrid
GPE
to
Paris
GPE
and then switching because you need to use a different technology to Get for example to
Amsterdam
GPE
The idea being that as companies run
Europe
LOC
create the
first
ORDINAL
commercial hyperlude tracks between individual cities
1 day
DATE
those can all be connected to a larger network Everyone that believes that hyperloop is a future transport system also realizes that there is a need to have this network because that's where a hyperloop thrives It's such a huge project. It's definitely not something that that you can do in your own or as a single company. So, you need to do it with a lot of other companies. You need to have to governments. I think in that sense, the biggest challenge I said to you from crowded is to really get all the required parties together. To take the steps in development and in commercial implement
Heart
ORG
's next plan is to build the
European
NORP
hyperloop center and open testing facility which will include a
two
CARDINAL
.
Six
CARDINAL
km test track and the company hopes to test travel speeds there and up to
700 kg
QUANTITY
Per hour. Virgin hyperloop is also racing to construct the
first
ORDINAL
commercial hyperloop route With projects in various states of development in
India
GPE
Saudi Arabia
GPE
in
the United States
GPE
. Recently the company announced plans to build a hyperloop certification center in
West Virginia
GPE
A
six
CARDINAL
mi long test track. Proving the technology here will be crucial if hyperloop networks can find a home among infrastructure investments that the
Biden
PERSON
administration hopes to make the idea there's multiple hyperloop companies I think is a redeeming aspect in the business People really want to see something happen so having multiple people move forward Is is good for that I was struck When
Sarah
PERSON
wrote the pod
Three
CARDINAL
of the major outlets use the phrase we now have a new mode of transport and although all of that technology had existed before those
two
CARDINAL
human beings wrote it yeah It was the moment at which those
two
CARDINAL
human beings
Although all of that technology had existed before those
two
CARDINAL
human beings wrote it yeah it was the moment at which those
two
CARDINAL
human beings traveled that short distance down the tube but in popular imagination hyperloop became a Transport. My team is that you know the right brothers refers but none of us fly on
Wright Brothers Airlines
ORG
anymore. You're not gonna be around and so we'll continue to be at the forefront of Back in
2013
DATE
Elon had an idea I think the difference now in
2021
DATE
is some brilliant engineers of spent real time grinding out the details I thoroughly expect
the next 3 to 5 years
DATE
to be decisive
This week
DATE
how high children can transform our energy usage we'll look at why the universe's most abundant element could be a game changer in the climate revolution They are used in in other sectors. We use them in space on our rockets and we don't need the rules of physics to change to be able to use hydrogen on our planes. From iron or to green hydrogen.
One
CARDINAL
of
Australia
GPE
's richest men tells us about his pivot to sustainable energy. Let's take action It's No. Hydrogen could be competitive within
5 years
DATE
. Headquarters in
New York
GPE
I'm Is Bloomberg Green? It's
a new year
DATE
so here at
Bloomberg Green
PERSON
we're highlighting new solutions in the fight against climate change and
one
CARDINAL
of those is as old as the universe
Hidget
ORG
it's the simplest element around but could well
Fight against climate change and
one
CARDINAL
of those is as old as the universe itself
Hidget
ORG
. It's the simplest element around but could well be a game changer when it comes to turning around our dependence on fossil fuels.
Today
DATE
, hydrogen is used in the chemicals industry to produce petroleum products. It's also starting to be used in steel production and industry under a lot of pressure to decarbonize but it has far more uses as well from power To heating our homes and
Bloomberg
PERSON
new energy finances a seismic shift in the sector in
the next 10 years
DATE
as green hydrogen squeezes out dirtier alternatives so called gray hydrogen dominates
today
DATE
but as renewable electricity gets cheaper and more access So, well, green hydrogen In this
week
DATE
's edition of
Bloomberg Green
PERSON
we'll explore what this push into hydrogen means for tackling climate change we'll hear from
Australian
NORP
billionaire twiggy forest about his pivot from iron or
two
CARDINAL
hydrogen and we'll also Speak with the CEO of
Italian
NORP
utility company
Spam about Hey
ORG
Facebook the hydrogen revolution But
first
ORDINAL
what are we using hydrogen for and why Actually matter. Christine
Lee Edwards
PERSON
explains. Hydrogen the most plentiful element in the universe. On earth we find it mostly bonded to oxygen in the form of water. Or in other gases known as hydrocarbons hydrogen gas Htwo burns hot and clean making it an attractive tool in the race to net oh but isolating hydrogen from other elements is no easy task
Today
DATE
the cheapest way to do this is via chemical processes that break up natural gas this releases a lot of carbon dioxide another method is used electricity to split water molecules in a process called electrolysis. Although there is no carbon byproduct a lot of electricity is needed. And This power comes from burning cold or gas it negates the oh emissions goals of using hydrogen to begin with
Hydrogen
ORG
produced in this way powered by fossil fuels is called gray hydrogen. If carbon capture is storage is used together with fossil fuels. Then it becomes blue hydrogen. If nuclear power issues, it's called pink. And finally green hydrogen is what is produced by electrolysis and powered from renewable sources. This method is considered emissions free. It's predicted that by the early 2030's Htwo made from renewables will be cheaper than that made from fossil fuels. But that hinge is on the cost of electrolysis declining which will be achieved through larger projects and an expansion of manufacturing. To be clear, vast amounts of
age two
DATE
are already used
today
DATE
. Global production in
2018
DATE
, totaled
117 1 million metric tons
QUANTITY
. This hydrogen is mostly used for its chemical
Hydrogen
GPE
properties replacing coal industries like submitting glass may also use hydrogen as a source of heat. Another advantage is it's energy storage potential. It can be stored over long It also can hold an advantage over batteries and heavy transport and shipping. The promise of hydrogen for energy has been around since
at least 1874
DATE
when
Jules Vern
PERSON
wrote about it in his book
The Mysterious Island
WORK_OF_ART
but the
Hydrogen
ORG
will depend on policy. Countries with net oh targets. Carbon pricing and hydrogen strategies with investment mechanisms are likely to see the highest
Htwo
ORG
demand.
Hydrogen
ORG
needs for the energy transition but Businesses approaching the sector? Well, one of
Australia
GPE
's richest man is making a big play into hydrogen.
Andrew Forest
PERSON
better known as
Twiggy
PERSON
made his fortune from
Iron Ort
ORG
being the chairman CEO and major shareholder in
Fort Ski Metals
GPE
one
CARDINAL
of the world's biggest minors but Having made over
10 1 billion dollars
MONEY
in profit from the medal in
the last fiscal year
DATE
20 Into a clean energy company he's been
Opportunities
PERSON
in hydrogen and renewables. The firm plants to allocate
up to 10%
PERCENT
of its annual profits for green energy investments. And is exploring projects across the globe from
Indonesia
GPE
to
Argentina
GPE
.
And renewables the firm plans to allocate
up to 10%
PERCENT
of its annual profits for green energy investments and is exploring projects across the globe from
Indonesia
GPE
to
Argentina
GPE
. Friends in
Laqua
ORG
caught up with
twenty
CARDINAL
-forest. There's only Type of clean hype and all the rest is
30
DATE
. That is great. If you just say green hydrogen is clean, the rest is dirty, then you've actually nailed it and you know, anyone else who produces any other rubbers, any other item, just look in the outside. Why is global warming accelerating if anything you're saying is true And then you'll know actually it's brainwashing. Yeah but there's a lot of greenwashing because I keep on being told it's a transition. We can't just, you know, make the transition at a click of a finger. So, what are we doing wrong? What can we do better? The personal computer having to transition the typewriter. I really don't remember that. I don't remember the the smartphone having to transition the pocket calculator and the old landline. No, it's transitional is complete rubbish. The lie got booked to it.
2 days ago
DATE
Similar
NORP
reputation Fantastic track recordable. Huge balance sheets. Super strong. With those
two
CARDINAL
companies got together and agreed at
79 1 billion US dollar
MONEY
agreement. Right then that's a real wake up call to say hang on Obviously commercial now Every other form of fossil fuel. Right. You know it can compete with it on price it can probably lose on price but what we know it is cooking the planet Oh methane oh cup in the supply chain don't worry about the molecules At the moment. So we have a long way to go to talk about only using green hydrogen. Yeah so look I have a call which I'd like to make now That the world should not fund
Eddie
PERSON
. Call
five
CARDINAL
past Projects. The planet just like gray and blue hudging it's gotten the protocol electricity is releasing
10 to 16
CARDINAL
times more carbon So we've just gotta stop doing things which is self harming under the guise of Greenwash. So why are leaders so slow even if you look at the appetite for
years
DATE
to investments? They're growing exponentially. So our emissions. So where are we allocating capital? Okay so take
the recent 220
DATE
. There's probably a reason why there wasn't strong action coming out of the G 20 Because people were not aware that major transactions between large We're taking place now That actually this pollution free all the way to the supply chain fuel is now being transacted at multi
one 1 billion dollars
MONEY
scale Climate change minister could not take ultra seriously then green heighten is doing here to stay it's broken through It will never go back. Okay, what is the one thing that you would tell leaders
today
DATE
and business leaders? How do we transition
Faster
PERSON
than what we are now because we're at real risk of missing our targets. Oh, so that's really simple. You stop Funding you stop subsidizing you stop Using. Hey Because we haven't had that Haven't had that green harsh. Yup. Now we know let's take action It's implementable next to it now. Okay, if we do it now, is there going to be a shock to the energies system? Is there going to be a shock actually to economically and is it worth, you know, not talking about transit?
If we do it now is there going to be a shock to the energy system is there going to be a shock actually to economically and is it worth you know not talking about transition just going from
eight
CARDINAL
to B. Yeah it's a it's a fantastic person. A to B's the solution. Let fossil fuels do what possible fuels do. Just burn their cold, burn their Into the atmosphere Honestly. Yeah. But at least the carpet has been done honestly. Encourage the
Green Heights
GPE
sector to come in really fast okay it's there there's there's renewable power all over the world you know know how to make a lectures much cheaper like 20 Does it need to be cheaper than oil and fossil fuel for it to be viable worldwide? Well, right now is okay so let's just swallow that bit of financial data. Right now is cheaper And it's getting more cheap it's it's I feel you know You don't have enough of it. Right, to power the world. That that's only because We haven't had policies to support We had policies to support it.
510 years, ago
DATE
, it would be everywhere you'd see the global warming budget start to come down. Yeah. Now, we've got
5 or 10 years
DATE
to make a huge difference. And he post latest all over the world.
One 1 billion dollars
MONEY
payments. Coming Hydrogen revolution will speak with the CEO of
Italian
NORP
utility firm snam about his new book and why he thinks green hydrogen will be competitive in
just 5 years
DATE
Plus, how are airlines working to become more sustainable? We'll look at how
airbus
ORG
plants to step up in the climate fight. Hey Facebook read. From
Woonberg
GPE
's World headquarters in
New York
GPE
I'm
Kelly Lyons
PERSON
and this is
Lumber Green
PRODUCT
What will the world look like in
2050
DATE
? Will global temperatures have stabilized electric vehicles be abundant.
The
New York
GPE
I'm
Kaylee Lyons
PERSON
and this is
Bloomberg Green
PERSON
What will the world look like in
2050
DATE
? Will global temperatures have stabilized electric vehicles be abundant and solar and wind power homes around the world? According to
Marco Alvera
PERSON
, the CEO of
Italian Energy Company
ORG
,
Snam
GPE
, that The future could be your reality and he says that hydrogen will pay its way. As he tells it in his new book,
The Hydrogen Revolution
WORK_OF_ART
,
Alvarez
PERSON
moment of reckoning came in
November 2018
DATE
when he tasked the snap scenarios team was studying how
Europe
LOC
could reduce its
COtwo
ORG
emissions to oh
2050
DATE
. Looking through the results of the study,
Alvera
ORG
said he was struck by how much hydrogen was in
Europe
LOC
's energy mixed by
that year
DATE
. Beyond the abundance of hydrogen, the stand model also predicted that it would be the cheapest form of decarbonized energy for many sectors and that it could be cheaper than
today
DATE
's prices for oil coal and nuclear power. Our
Maria
PERSON
today Spoke with
Alvara
GPE
at Cop
26
CARDINAL
.
Hydrogen
ORG
coming down a lot.
Hydrogen
ORG
will play a big role in the energy mix. I don't know if it's gonna be
15 or 25%
PERCENT
of the fully decarbonized energy system but it's gonna be big. Call sir coming down and people are waking up to the fact that it's the only way to decarbonize certain sectors. So called hard to abate Still not the cheap
Hydrogen 2004
EVENT
it was costing a $
1000
MONEY
per mega of an hour
2016
DATE
100
today
DATE
100
CARDINAL
we see it going down to
50
CARDINAL
Hydrogen Hydrogen
ORG
the cost of this kit is falling a lot because it doesn't
Institution Infrastructure
ORG
. Are they are they keen on this? They're very keen so the department of energy shares our view in the states of getting to below $one a kilo which is $
25
MONEY
a mega per hour.
The European Union
ORG
has a hydrogen strategy which is very clear and several member states have the same.
Chili
ORG
wants to explore a lot of hydrogen
China
GPE
's big on hydrogen
Australia
GPE
is very big on hydrogen.
Japan
GPE
is blending already hydrogen. So, I would say the world is now really focused on this because it's the only way to store energy for a long period of time. Economically is to convert it into either a liquid or a gas.
Hydrogen
ORG
eventually and so compared to oil and gas which are concentrated in few parts of the world. It's gonna be very democratic from that point of view. So, every sunny place, every desert, every ocean wind, can be turned into hydrogen that we can put on ships in pipes
Faster
PERSON
than a lot of people think. So and and we say a lot faster. As they said $
50
MONEY
which is essentially oil parity within
5 years
DATE
and then depending on how quickly we ramp it up after that we could get to $
25
MONEY
which is cold parity before
the end of the day
DATE
.
Hydrogen
ORG
development, a lot of renewable development in both countries. The
Indian
NORP
announcement was incredibly On
23rd
DATE
. Right?
Hydrogen
GPE
. Perhaps the fact that we haven't really seen them act if I guess the diplomats are working on
And we're very interested in working that country. And with regards to
China
GPE
, perhaps the fact that we haven't really seen them active. I guess the diplomats are working on this but we haven't really seen the leadership. So I think a lot has been achieved between the G 20 and and
Cop
PERSON
and I think what's really important is to see in
the coming years
DATE
how quick it's in our hands to make part of this happen in 5 years or it could otherwise happen in 15 Already committed what's missing is really the projects and that's where companies like us step in.
Marco Alvera
PERSON
, CEO of
Snam
GPE
there, speaking with our
Maria
PERSON
today
DATE
. Let's turn out to the aviation industry. It's Contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions and it Pressure to change that. In
October
DATE
,
the International Air Transport Association
ORG
, a tree body representing Approved a target of achieving net oh missions by
2050
DATE
to achieve that many airlines in the
US
GPE
and
Europe
LOC
are looking to buy sustainable aviation fuel made from renewable sources like used vegetable oil
Initiatives
NORP
like these are pushing play makers to come up with some radical new aircraft that will eventually cater to our growing For travel without hurting the environment. We took a look at how
airbus
ORG
the world's number
two
CARDINAL
aircraft manufacturer is stepping up to the challenge. How long until we can fly emission free
Airbus
ORG
says it's more confident by
the day
DATE
it can be done by its
2035
DATE
target The physic works hide organ technology are not new they are used in in other sectors we use them in space on our rockets and we don't need the rules of physics to change to be able to use hydrogen on our planes so everyday we become more confident but we think we need to have a plan we need to have the the right At the right time and we need your regulations to be ready. So, we really need the the work and the collaboration of many people on the globe to make it happen on time. Large aircraft with
more than 150
CARDINAL
seats on not expected to feature globally until
about 2050
DATE
that means manufacturers and airlines
today
DATE
are undergrow In a long term meeting the ambitious plans for so called green hydrogen means building a giant industry almost from scratch to make that happen
British
NORP
airline easy jet to Those saying governments need to get involved and fast. Aviations emissions over
the last three decades
DATE
leading up to the pandemic grew by
about 80%
PERCENT
to over
one
CARDINAL
gigaton and that's projected to double by
2050
DATE
.
Bloomberg NEF
PERSON
about half of the airlines with the largest global market share have set oh targets by that same date
nearly three decades
DATE
away Coming up from blue sky projects to the bottom line we'll speak with our
Bloomberg
PERSON
any F expert
Meredith
ORG
annex and dig into their models
Hydrogen
GPE
fits into the future energy mix. Is
Bloomberg Green
PERSON
?
From
Bloomberg
PERSON
's world headquarters in
New York
GPE
I'm
KB Lyons
PERSON
and this is
Bloomberg Green
PERSON
now let's bring in
Meredith
ORG
Annex our
Bloomberg NEF
ORG
hydrogen specialist to talk About how hydrogen could change the energy landscape. So where did What place do you think hydrogen is likely to have in the future energy mix globally? Hydrogen this incredible solution for us as we look to decarbonize because it's a perfect solution in areas that are hard to electrify. So, where we like to think about hydrogen playing a role, it's in things like heavy industry, especially where you need a feed stalk as well as energy source and in things like dispatchable power, long call transport Maybe even shipping an aviation. That sounds great that it can be used for such diverse industries. At
the end of the day
DATE
though, how much Is going to cost? Well, that's the amazing thing about hydrogen because depending on how you make it, it can actually see significant cost declines in the So when we're talking about clean hydrogen we're usually mean green hydrogen produce from renewable electricity. And in that case your hydro Is almost as cheap as the renewables that I used to bake it So, if you're in a place with really good renewable resources, you'll be able to have cheaper hydrogen but even in places with less good resources, we think that hydrogen can be cheaper than a dollar per kilogram. Which is the price of unabated hydrogen
today
DATE
and
around $eight
MONEY
per
one 1 million
QUANTITY
BTUs for those who prefer to think in energy units And that can be teach anywhere in the world by
2015
DATE
we believe. Alright, so let's talk about kind of the pros and cons list. I don't know where cost fits into that but what are the advantages to hydrogen over other renewables and then what are the drawbacks? Yeah main advantage is the fact that hydrogen can serve rolls that electron struggle with and that's things like seasonal storage brands in so just anything where you need to store ability very left tons are harder to store hydrogen is gonna be easier. That also leads to a downside though because hydrogen is less energy dense than the usual things that we use for storeable energy today like coal or oil or natural gas. So, you only more volume of storage to handle the same amount of energy Let's talk about the viability as well and how it may differ in different geographies. What is your view on that? Yeah. So, for green hydrogen again from renewable electricity, Places with the best renewable resources things like
Latin America
LOC
or
the Middle East
LOC
even
Southern Europe
LOC
have really really good potential for producing hydrogen and then when you're looking at blue hydrogen which is produced from natural gas or coal with carbon caption storage. We do see that becoming more expensive than green hyd In the future. Renewable electricity cost come down Can be available option in places like the
US
GPE
Gulf Coast
LOC
or
Russia
GPE
where you've got good geological storage for the carbon as well as ample natural gas that's quite cheap. Alright, great breakdown. Thank you so much to our
Meredith Annex
PERSON
. Our
Bloomberg
PERSON
,
NEF
ORG
, hydrogen specialist, and of course, you can get more from the Bloomberg
NEF
ORG
team on the terminal and And they've recently done a podcast called hydrogen 101.
Bloomberg NEF
PERSON
hydrogen specialist and of course you can get more from the Bloomberg
NEF
ORG
team on the terminal and online and they've recently done a podcast called hydrogen 101 as part of its switched on series. So from
Iron Nord Titans
PERSON
pivoting to cleaner energy to talk of a hydrogen revolution that's it from this
week
DATE
's edition of
Bloomberg Green
PERSON
we'll be back
next week
DATE
with a deep dive into the state of electric vehicles And you can keep the conversation going by following us on
YouTube
ORG
,
Instagram
ORG
, and
Twitter Climate
PERSON
. World headquarters in
New York
GPE
and this is
Bloomberg Green
PERSON
.
Bloomberg
PERSON
It's now
2 PM
TIME
on Wall St we've got markets trading mixed at
this hour
TIME
from
Bloomberg World
ORG
headquarters in
New York
GPE
I'm
Doug Crisner
PERSON
earlier today
TIME
some week
DATE
economic data sparked to bait over whether or not fit share
Jay Powell
PERSON
might deliver a last hawkish message when he speaks on
Friday
DATE
sales of
Us
GPE
homes down in
July
DATE
for a
sixth
ORDINAL
time
this year
DATE
and
US
GPE
business activity contracted for
a second straight month
DATE
during
August
DATE
Well now it looks as though markets appear to be coming to terms with the idea that the
fed
ORG
is resolved to fight inflation with higher interest rates we are learning now from the
Bloomberg
PERSON
terminal that directors at
two
CARDINAL
regional
fed
ORG
banks
Saint Louis
GPE
and
Minneapolis
GPE
were seeking a rate hike
last month
DATE
of
100
CARDINAL
basis points and Long term rates are moving up
10 year
DATE
treasury
ORG
higher by
three
CARDINAL
basis points in yield we're
304%
PERCENT
. Very little movement on the shorter end of the curve at this moment with a
2 year
DATE
at
303%
PERCENT
. The dollar remains
week
DATE
with the
Bloomberg
PERSON
dollar spot index right now off
about a half
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
the equity market is mixed down industrial average weaker by
a half
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
but the Nasdaq composite holding onto a gain of a
10th
ORDINAL
of
one%
ORG
in the broader market we S and P
500
CARDINAL
index down
about two tenths
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
to decline being past by real estate health care and utility stocks
Earlier in the day
TIME
Macy
ORG
's cut its
full year
DATE
forecast for both profit and revenue the retailer blaming steep markdowns and bloated inventories even so shares in
Macy
ORG
's right now trading higher by more
Three and a half percent
DATE
UBS
ORG
was saying the bad news may have already been priced in before
today
DATE
shares in
Macy
ORG
's were down
29%
PERCENT
so far
this year
DATE
and zoom video shares right now being hard hit off by
more than 14%
PERCENT
late yesterday
DATE
after the closing bell zoom cut it's annual Forecast. Crude oil.
A hard hit off by
more than 14%
PERCENT
late yesterday
DATE
after the closing bell zoom cut it's
annual
DATE
revenue forecast WTI crude oil right now with a gain of
three
CARDINAL
. Eight% That's your
Bloomberg
GPE
business flash. This is
Bloomberg Business Week
ORG
inside from the reporters and editors who bring you
America
GPE
's most trusted business magazine plus global business finance and tech news as it happens.
Bloomberg
PERSON
business week with
Carol Messenger
PERSON
and
Bloomberg
GPE
Quicktakes
Tim Stenovic
PERSON
on
Bloomberg Radio Studio
ORG
we are streaming on
YouTube
ORG
on
this Tuesday
DATE
August
DATE
23
CARDINAL
Carolmaster my host In for
Tim
PERSON
and with me for
the next 3 hours
TIME
Bloomberg News
ORG
senior markets reporter
Katie Greifeld
PERSON
she is host of
ETFIQ
ORG
on
Bloomberg TV
ORG
It seems like a market that maybe is taking a bit of a breather but we did have a bunch of weak economic news global economic news and that's definitely shaping the global trade. Volumes falling off a cliff. The big event of course is at
the end of the week
DATE
.
Jackson Hall
PERSON
, folks. Alright, with that in mind, hang on, everyone. The era of economic whiplash may just be I thought we were living through that at this moment wasn't
this the year
DATE
of volatility? Knew who knew we're also gonna talk about
Harvard
ORG
maybe about to lose its status as the wealthiest school. Tiniest violin for
Harbor
ORG
. I was gonna talk about the common denominator between a well-known health care organization event or capitalist in
NBA Talk
ORG
about that combination and then let's not forget we've got earnings from into it Nordstrom and Toll Brothers after the close so lots to get to on this
Tuesday
DATE
let's get to the market driver's report Let's set your business week agenda on
this Tuesday
DATE
. Markets correspondent at
Bloomberg
PERSON
are interactive brokers studio. So to as
Molly Smith
PERSON
, economic editor, at
Bloomberg News
ORG
, but
first
ORDINAL
off, let's talk about the market trait cuz it does seem like we're maybe marking a little bit of time waiting for
Jackson Hole
GPE
. Yeah, no real conviction, I would The market here the S and P 500 down
about 2 tons
QUANTITY
one% the
Nasdaq
ORG
about flat on the session even in the yield space I would say there is some intra day volatility you are seeing swings of
as much as 10
CARDINAL
basis points on
inter day
EVENT
basis but we're still hovering around three% 304 really yeah And bespoke and best actually I try not to really quote research here but bespoke and best came out with a really good note
a couple days ago
DATE
saying that every time
the 10 year old
DATE
hits three% you do start to see some selling in the stock market and it almost feels like Right so it feels like at least today perhaps it is like taking it's queue the stock market is taking it's cute from the cross asset picture and of course we do know the
Bloomberg
PERSON
dollar index is also weaker
Session
PRODUCT
. So, really, I mean, I hate to say this,
Matt Miller
PERSON
gets mad at me every time I do but like, nothing's really happening in the market. It's really mad. No, what is it? Terminal Me that there were
two
CARDINAL
members of the federal reserves regional bank branches that said, you know what? We would really like to see a full percent hike. Right. So, this is again to be clear for the discount rate, not for the federal funds rate, which the
fed
ORG
just raised by
75
CARDINAL
basis points So what is the discount rate? Is essentially when banks borrow directly from the
fed
ORG
. So, that's a different than the federal funds rate and that one had unanimous support to be raised by
75
CARDINAL
basis points at the last meeting. So, this Still important. There is still signaling in here that like fede officials are still Literally moving toward tighter financial conditions and still sending that message across that rates and borrowing cost more broadly do need to be moving higher. So, it is still significant. Meaning, no pivot,
Katie
PERSON
. No. Speaking at
10 AM Eastern
TIME
on
Friday
DATE
there was a really interesting interview on
Bloomberg TV
ORG
earlier
today
DATE
with
Yon Hotsias
PERSON
the Goldman Sax Chief Economist he said that Pal he's not about to go all local
Volker
NORP
reminding us that again there's a risk of over Monetary policy obviously works with the lag but when you look at some of the data out
today
DATE
and think about the week PMIs I'm thinking about the new home sales are we starting to see some of that time
The new home sales are we starting to see some of that tightening arty in the system work its way into the data yeah and I think
Powell
PERSON
and
Co
PERSON
will be definitely take comfort in that and they've definitely mentioned the housing slowdown Sign that their policies are working which is what they want to see the thing that though that they can't take as much credit for of course when you look at the overall CPI numbers
from July
DATE
and so much of that being due to energy prices coming down That's not really so much of in the feds control and that's not showing that inflation broadly is softening so it's still high shelter cost I hear people complaining still about what they're paying for food I mean they're still a lot of pressures out there exactly and they think that is Very much ingrained to them that they still need to keep moving higher and tighter and again not moving toward that pivot anytime soon. Is there like any kind of I don't know whispering among traitors or investors out there in terms of what we get from
J Powell
PERSON
and company
J Pal
ORG
specifically on
Friday
DATE
and how that could impact the trade. We've had quite a bounce off the We have and you know, I think there's
two
CARDINAL
major expectations. He has to basically come out extremely hawkish, approved to the market, that he is actually looking and actually the federal reserve, not him, so specifically, but the federal reserve is looking to tackle inflation, pretty aggressively. The risks that they run and this is a very, very high risk. Is that anything below? And this You saw the trade for the
July
DATE
meeting is that anything that wasn't we will Potentially tackle inflation at the risk of recession. That's extremely hawkish comic he made in
June
DATE
. Anything that falls short of that is going to be interpre So the stakes are extremely high in terms of language here if I can actually circle back very quickly to the discount rate that Molly was mentioning I would argue that this is really interesting timing because the discount typically set higher than the federal funds rate it's meant to be kind of this extra check on on the bank signature liquidity and things like that so if you see the regional Federal funds rate as well because that margin has to still stay about the same between the discount and federal funds rate. That's a lot of nerd talk basically for saying that away for chairman
Powell
PERSON
to Actually on the table for
September
DATE
at a time when the market is pricing
50
DATE
. Save to
30
CARDINAL
. Well, right now, I mean, right now, the debate is really between 50 and 75 for
September
DATE
. Of course, that is still like I would say for very up in the air and Between now and
September
DATE
and what is our It's time to Somebody's gonna be right that's all I'm gonna say alright we're gonna leave it on that note guys thank you so much great to have you both here in studio create a group markets correspondent at
Bloomberg
PERSON
and of course our Molly Smith economic editor at
Bloomberg News
ORG
both as we said in our interactive broker studio lots to come with
Katie
PERSON
and myself right now that we wanna An update on
World of National News
ORG
for that
Nancy Lyons
PERSON
in
DC
GPE
. Hey
Nats
PERSON
. Thanks
Carol
PRODUCT
.
Two
CARDINAL
men face life in prison after being convicted of conspiracy to kidnap michigan governor
Gretchen Whitmer
PERSON
. The verdict came after Jerus heard
more than a
DATE
week
DATE
's worth of testimony in the case against
Adam Fox
PERSON
and
Barry Croft
PERSON
. F Assistant special agent in charge
David Porter
PERSON
said the men planned to take their political disagreements to a dangerous level However
FBI
ORG
's
Porter
PERSON
both men plan to appeal
today
DATE
's verdict.
Twitter
PERSON
's former head of security has filed a complaint with the
US
GPE
government claiming severe shortcomings and how
Twitter
PERSON
handles user data. The formal complaint alleged egregious deficiencies in
Twitter
ORG
's defenses against tackers and other lacks approaches to security the
washington
GPE
post first reported the claims which include out of date software prioritizing growth over reducing the number of spam accounts Executives with holding information about breaches how's lawmakers confirm the complaint
Food out of date software prioritizing growth over reducing the number of spam accounts and executives with holding information about breaches how's lawmakers The complaint saying they're already reviewing the disclosure and they're looking into what to do next in
washington
GPE
i'm in
Morris Bloomberg
PERSON
radio the
White House
ORG
plans to make its long awaited announcement
Student
ORG
debt relief
tomorrow
DATE
. That's according to people familiar with the timing. The substance of the announcement is not yet clear and is being closely guarded by
the White House
ORG
. President
Joe Biden
PERSON
's decision has Long anticipated as he grapples with delivering targeted relief while weighing any fallout including an on already rampant inflation. Global news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and on
Bloomberg
PERSON
quick take powered by
more than 2700
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journalist and analyst in
more than 120
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Nancy Lyons, thank you so much. They're in our
99 one
CARDINAL
newsroom in
Washington
GPE
,
DC
GPE
.
Alright
ORG
, the most red story on the
Bloomberg
PERSON
in
the past 8 hours
TIME
on
this Tuesday
DATE
has to do with
Julian Robertson
PERSON
very well known of course to members
Bloomberg
PERSON
here and of course our
Bloomberg
PERSON
audiences he was the billionaire tiger management founder he became one of his generation's most successful hedge fund managers a mentor to waive investors known as tiger cubs we often talk about it we report on them and what they are doing how they were performing
Fascinating
LOC
career so born in
North Carolina
GPE
he started
New York
GPE
based tiger management in
1980
DATE
with
about $eight
MONEY
.
8 million
CARDINAL
he was
48 years old
DATE
at the time so not exactly A young relatively old to be launching his own firm
1998
DATE
Assets had sort to
about 22 1 billion dollars
MONEY
on the back of
annual
DATE
returns averaging
32%
PERCENT
Carol. Yeah, that's a pretty decent return. Yeah, I wouldn't say no. I love this.
Jim Shay
PERSON
knows in an interview for more money than god, that was a
2010
DATE
book on hedge funds by
Sebastian Malaby
PERSON
said and this is a quote from
Jim Chanos
PERSON
. If Had had to give my own money to any of them I would have given it to
Robertson
PERSON
I knew that he knew stocks better than anyone I mean this was someone who was really a stock picker oh yeah definitely and I mean he was known for really managing his holding Aggressively he would remove good companies to make room for better ones and he wouldn't risk more than five% of capital on a single bed and kept the faith through the bad times and to your point again really known as a stockpicker though he
Four
CARDINAL
X in the
1990
DATE
's. Section in this story on
the Bloom Bargain@Bloomberg
PRODUCT
. Com. Called manic periods and this was a quote from him. He wrote in a letter to investors. I'm not quite sure exactly when maybe this was, I don't know. But he said there's Point in subjecting our investors to risk in a market which I frankly do not understand this was a letter to investors we have seen manic periods like this before and I made confident that despite the current disfavor in which it is held value investing remains the best courses might have been back In
2000
DATE
I'm not quite sure about the timing. Anyways read the whole story. You can find it on the
Bloomberg
PERSON
and
also@Bloomberg
PERSON
. Com. This is
Bloomberg Radio
ORG
. Hey
Markets, headlines, and breaking news
24 hours
TIME
a day@Bloomberg. Com, the
Bloomberg
GPE
business app. Markets appear to be coming to terms with the idea that the feds resolve to fight inflation will continue with higher interest rates we are learning now through the
Bloomberg
PERSON
terminal that directors at
two
CARDINAL
regional Wanted a rate hike
last month
DATE
of
100
CARDINAL
basis points
10 year
DATE
treasury
ORG
is up
more than two
CARDINAL
basis points in yield now at
304%
PERCENT
. We're down a basis point on
the 2 year
DATE
at
329
CARDINAL
Equity market we've got the dial weaker by
a half
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
of the Nasdaq composite rising
two
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
yes and p
500
CARDINAL
is down
two
CARDINAL
chance of
one%
ORG
that is your
Bloomberg
GPE
business flash
Kick
PERSON
off to the clothes
Bloomberg
PERSON
's comprehensive cross platform coverage bringing you inside on what to watch ahead of the
US
GPE
market close starts right now And a very good
afternoon
TIME
everybody welcome to the kick off to the close
Carol Master
PERSON
and
Katie Griffel
PERSON
choose in for my co host
Tim Steda
PERSON
On
this Tuesday
DATE
we welcome our TV colleagues
Carolyn High Taylor Riggs
PERSON
and
Gina Martin Adams
PERSON
as we walk you towards the closing bell on
this Tuesday
DATE
and let's take things off with a look at
today
DATE
's trade cuz we're for the most parts in bouncing
Unfed
NORP
policy due
later this week
DATE
from
Jackson Hull
ORG
. We did see that tenure that were back above three%. There you have it for folks on TV. Right now, the S and P little change. Call it flat slightly lower. Same thing for we're taking a look at actually the Nas Small caps do have about a quarter of a percent down also down but overall,
Same thing for we're taking a look actually the Nasdaq. It's a little bit higher up
about 2 tons
QUANTITY
of a percent. Small caps
two
CARDINAL
up
about a quarter
CARDINAL
of a percent down also down but overall
Katie
PERSON
, pretty flat here. Pretty flat, yeah, not much to speak of in terms of volumes either And I'm gonna pick it up as well from here to talk about through the mix equity market on the day send them mixed volumes on
the day
DATE
how much of this really comes from some of the key data of course that we're watching Economic data that really sets the tone maybe
around 8:30
TIME
: sometimes 10 AM I'm gonna start with some of the key
PMI
ORG
data that we got
this morning
TIME
. Gina for me, it's a composite that falls to
45
CARDINAL
. The weakest since
May 2020
DATE
before that,
the week
DATE
is since
2009
DATE
. Our services that falls to
44
CARDINAL
. I mean, any It's still quote above the construction territory sold and expansion but it's also too probably over. Yeah and increasingly difficult to argue that the
US
GPE
economy is not entering or already in recession with this kind of data coming out not only the PMIs but certainly the consumer starting to show some weakness that showing up there in those services
PMI
ORG
's and the housing dedicated also has been pretty ugly so far
today
DATE
. In
July
DATE
since
early 2016
DATE
the other part of that was the homes For sale rose the highest level since
about 2008
DATE
so again just this long lag of monetary policy tightening maybe it's starting to show just in some of the data we got just this morning I wonder though what you make of a median home price that's still up
8 year% of year
DATE
in that report is still
$440 thousand
MONEY
so you are seeing a little
Slow
ORG
down but
Caroline
NORP
when you think about some of the price pressures and the massive gains that we're still seeing on
year over year
DATE
basis in terms of those medium home prices those aren't falling yet yeah interestingly how does that affect consumer sent Doesn't mean that you withdraw and you're spending once more. I got a real good check in on the health of the consumer from the CEO chairman of
Macy
ORG
's a little bit He actually was saying look the consumers relatively healthy right now Pricingly healthy but also get this by the inventory level which was seven% higher than this time
last year
DATE
but overall
Jeff
PERSON
and I were saying look there's an industry issue not not a
Macy
ORG
's issue particularly I've got some categories where there's a lot of inventory look he's talking about the things we're all buying in the pandemic your athleisure and the like we said other I've got catering is that a flying right now for him particularly the luxury consumer
Katie
PERSON
still Wrong. And you wonder what those inventory levels I know it's only August but the holidays are approaching. Where do those levels leave us as we approach really really crucial season for those retailers? Tour and because I feel like we guys just talked about a lot of week economic points what we did talk about still shelter cost pretty high and you had the
Macy
ORG
CEO talking about the consumer relatively strong well as a
one
CARDINAL
person on TV earlier weighing in torston slock he's a palo management chief economist he really focused on the global weakness and the implications of such here's what To say. Most particularly surprising is that the service sector which has been holding up not only the
US
GPE
economy but also the
European
NORP
economy we're showing a little bit more sign of weakness and combining that also with a housing data being a little bit weaker eh it is clear that there are some signs at least now in the services sector that things are slowing housing has been slowing for a while but the It looks like rate heights combine of course with the situation in
Europe
LOC
on any of your front beginning to have at least someone of the moderating impact on
Bruce Alright Torston's
PERSON
lock of course Chief economist. So, moderating growth
Caroline
NORP
but I didn't hear him say recession. At all mean for how we get the nuance from Whether or not that pivot stays intact whether people got ahead of the curve over thinking it was a pivot whether or not we still see some hawkish signs from the fed. Yeah and will that pivot really be justified? It's the big question. We've got a yet A retailer coming out
this afternoon
TIME
. Just when you think that earning season is over, there's still more coming in
Nordstrom
ORG
's coming out
this afternoon
TIME
.
Macy
ORG
's
kinda
PERSON
set him up a little bit. Certainly, the stock has gotten a little bit of lift from the
Macy
ORG
's news. Will Norstrom be able to satisfy expectations for maybe things weren't quite as bad as we were worried about for the
second
ORDINAL
.
A little bit certainly the stock has gotten a little bit a lift from the
Macy
ORG
's news Be able to satisfy expectations from maybe things weren't quite as bad as we were worried about for
the second quarter
DATE
will they be able to manage those inventories and give us some insights into just how much the Is turning over because frankly it's gonna take a big turnover in the consumer to justify that sort of easier
fed
ORG
outlook that the market is anticipating for
2023
DATE
. Stout and done in thinking I think she was online shopping Retail consumer really hanging in this entire time it will be Dynamic we need to get used to not sharing any secrets All I know is I have a bunch of back to school shopping to do so I'll be out there. Alright, that's gonna do it. We'll be back in about a half an
hour
TIME
's time for countdown to the close and do not miss From coverage as we count you down the clothes on
this Tuesday
DATE
beyond the bell on radio TV and
YouTube
ORG
will count you down You're listening to
Bloomberg
GPE
business week with
Carol Messer
PERSON
and
Bloomberg
PERSON
quick takes
Tim Stenovan
PERSON
On
Bloomberg
PERSON
radio. Alright you are listening and watching
Bloomberg Business Week
ORG
on
Bloomberg Radio
ORG
and on
YouTube
ORG
Carolmaster Law with
Katie Grifield
PERSON
I mean
Did
PERSON
n't know to check out my hair. Don't tell my bosses. But occasionally, occasionally, and I was just wondering I really love when you have one close competitor report and then the competitor reports in
the afternoon
TIME
. So much good news. Can they deliver? And not all retailer like that's all I will say and I think that's why you see some contrast whether high and lower and consumer I hate to say lowering consumer I don't mean it like that it's kinda
Broadcasting live from the
Bloomberg
NORP
interactive broker studio in
New York
GPE
Bloomberg
11 three oh
DATE
to
Washington DC
GPE
Bloomberg
PERSON
99 one
CARDINAL
to
Boston
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Bloomberg
1061
DATE
to
San Francisco
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Bloomberg
960
CARDINAL
to the country series
XM
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channel
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CARDINAL
and around the globe the
Bloomberg
GPE
business
Iheartradio
GPE
. Com. Violin for
Said
PERSON
earlier you don't have one. Maybe this is the other side of it. Yeah, we'll get to that in
just a moment
TIME
with our own
Janet Lauren
PERSON
.
First
ORDINAL
up, go back to the markets, your top business stories, here is
Doug Krisner
PERSON
. Hey,
Carol
PERSON
. So, mark it, I think it's fair to say
today
DATE
are coming to terms with the fact that the
fed
ORG
is going to be resolved to fight inflation Or what? Higher interest rates are in store. We're learning now through
the Bloomberg Terminal
ORG
that directors at
two
CARDINAL
regional
fed
ORG
banks this would be
Saint Louis
GPE
and
Minneapolis
GPE
they wanted a rate hike
last month
DATE
of
100
CARDINAL
basis point.
Now through
the Bloomberg Terminal
ORG
that directors at
two
CARDINAL
regional fedbanks this would be
Saint Louis
GPE
and
Minneapolis
GPE
they wanted a rate high class month of
100
CARDINAL
basis points we're looking right now at
a 10 year
DATE
treasury
305%
PERCENT
. Where up
nearly four
CARDINAL
basis points on
the day
DATE
at the shorter end of the curve the
two
CARDINAL
Very little change to
Neil
PERSON
at
331
CARDINAL
in the equity market we've got a mixed picture the Dow down
about four tenths
CARDINAL
of one% Nasdaq comp though higher by
about three
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
and in the broader market we've got the S and P showing just a little bit of weakness off
less than a 10th
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
real estate health care utilities leading the way lower but we must The energy group the S and P
500
CARDINAL
energy group is up by more than three% moving higher in
tandem
ORG
with crude oil WTI right now
9378
DATE
we're up about that
three
CARDINAL
. Eight% the market here seems to be sensing the risk of output cuts coming from Opec Plus given the gap that we've been talking about between high prices in the physical market and weaker futures prices
Saudi Arabia's
GPE
oil minister recently raising the possibility Of production cuts is a way of rebalancing the market I'm done prisoner that your
Bloomberg
PERSON
business fly alright got it
Doug
PERSON
thank you so much well
the Bloomberg Big Take
FAC
also among our most read on the
Bloomberg
PERSON
today
DATE
it's about how
Harvard
ORG
's long time status is the wealthiest school is now facing an oil rich contender
Katie
PERSON
In oil rich contender and none other than
the university of Texas
ORG
I don't know if you've heard but energy prices have just been soaring
this year
DATE
this is a really interesting angle into it sort of from the endowment perspective
Janet Lauren
PERSON
wrote the story she The studio with us.
Janet
PERSON
. Walk us through why this has been such a boon for
the University of Texas
ORG
in particular. Well, I'm gonna take you back to the
1800
DATE
's. Okay, when the state of
Texas
GPE
began setting aside land for a public university system. Forward the land ended up being in
West Texas
LOC
where they said perhaps you can get some money from grazing rights and then what happened
100 years ago
DATE
Oil
PRODUCT
struck permean basin
today
DATE
is the largest oil producing region in
North America
LOC
and given you know what's been going on with oil prices, the war, and also a different strategy over the last several Run by university lands which is a division of
the University of Texas
ORG
system that increase production and higher oil prices add up those
two
CARDINAL
things and you get more than two 1 billion dollars in revenue now what's really key about that is it goes into the endowment As we talked about many endowments are expected to have investment losses for
the year
DATE
that ended in
June
DATE
so that gives these endowments this endowment some real liquidity when others are facing losses they that really helps them you know build their endowment if they're able to you know chase You know,
Chase
ORG
managers, good good deals in a in a down market. Can I just, the
first
ORDINAL
line of your story
every day
DATE
,
the University of Texas
ORG
system makes
about six 1 million dollars
MONEY
off a mineral ritual swath of land. It manages in the
US
GPE
's largest oil field. That's pretty nice. Yeah, well,
two
CARDINAL
. 1 billion acres. Yeah. In
the Permian Basin
LOC
. So compare that then now with
Harvard
ORG
right that was the headline on the story. Is
about nine 1 billion dollars
MONEY
and given, you know,
this year
DATE
, many schools are gonna have losses. If they have it a down, a decline in their value,
Texas
GPE
may have an increase in their value. Plus, if they're able to, you know, get those, get, get some great investments, plus, you know, the reserves on their land are, you know, the size of Publicly traded companies We're not even talking about wind and solar Which is you know they have great positions for wind and so or so cuz of all that land right Weird. It's located. Comparing contrast what we're seeing and how other universities are managing their endowments because you write at this time you see a lot of other universities pulling back from energies sort of in an eco-conscious push. Absolutely.
Harvard
ORG
announced
last year
DATE
that they were moving away from fossil fuel investment so they're letting things rolling off and they're not making any new investments and a lot of schools are saying they're doing the same thing but of course, as you know, private equity, How does it change?
Long term investment so you're not just gonna yank out of a fund if you're in
year 2
DATE
out of
10
CARDINAL
Energy as you know it was a great investment
this year
DATE
How does it change? I mean, it right, exactly, by a mile. If you look at the major,
11
CARDINAL
major industry groups in the S and P
500
CARDINAL
energy, I think
43%
PERCENT
. It's nuts. It's nuts. Easily beating all of the other
10
CARDINAL
. If you will, Put pressure on the others to maybe slow their roll if you will in terms of not being so environmentally conscious like I do wonder at some point right does someone we talk about this generally in the
SG
PERSON
great when the market's going up overall with everything but when it's not how many people are like yeah maybe I don't have to be so Really good question. These are not investments they're making. They're not buying into funds. This is just land that they control when they get the money. And it's just cash coming in. So it's not like they're gonna go sell it. Why? Well in their hedges actually we didn't solar yeah plus there's there's new new things in the climate the climate bill so if you are a private company and you're looking for tax credits you know for carbon sequestration if you're injecting carbon into a well There's another revenue stream so that's really interesting that they're they can kinda play love sides that okay we have these Fields that were generating a lot of you know cash from as energy prices and oil prices skyrocket but again to your point they also the wind and solar so again it's really a neat balance there. How much of that hedge? How much of Anybody who's in the oil industry will say we're a boomin bust industry. I mean, is this just a really great year for them? It is
a really Year
DATE
but as we explain in the story oil doesn't have to be at
100
CARDINAL
Barrel
PERSON
to make money because you know they get
22
CARDINAL
.
Three%
GPE
royalties and they're not putting any capital expenses into drilling they just sign the leathers and get the money right so they don't have to they actually cost and stuff they just miss out the land yep they just have the land I really fascinating story and as we said Among the most red and really is so I feel like reflective of our environment
today
DATE
and and really the move up when it comes to energy.
Janet
PERSON
, thank you so much. It's also the Bloomberg Big Take, the reporting by
Janet Lawrence
PERSON
. She's a higher education finance reporter at
Bloomberg News
ORG
here in our studio. Check out all of her stories on the
Bloomberg@Bloomberg
PERSON
. Com and also on
Twitter
PERSON
at
Janet Lauren
PERSON
, I think about just those macro trends that impact so much. And it really just speaks to this very interesting moment in ESG whereas if you've been sitting in an ESG fund you've missed out on that big energy boom. Obviously endowments are feeling that as well. No really really good point.
Carol Master
PERSON
Katie Grifield
PERSON
you are listening and watching
Bloomberg
PERSON
business week right now back to
DC
GPE
Hey Nancy Lyons for
Walton National News
ORG
hey Nats hey Carol the
US
GPE
is warning
Americans
NORP
to leave
Ukraine
GPE
over fierce
Russia
GPE
could launch a new round of a tax against
Ukrainian
NORP
government facilities
Ukraine
GPE
is preparing to celebrate it's independent state
tomorrow
DATE
President Velon
Amir Solinski
PERSON
says
Russia
GPE
quote Try to do something particularly nasty Former President
Donald Trump
PERSON
has filed a federal lawsuit seeking appointment of a neutral
third
ORDINAL
party to review material that was seized by the
FBI
ORG
during a search for classified document At his mar a lago estate
Bloomberg
PERSON
Washington
GPE
correspondent
Joe Matthew
PERSON
with more the legal analyst we're speaking with say this may not go very far the DOJ is likely already begun going through these documents and they have a special team of filter team or a taint team as they're known Trajectory of this case.
Bloomberg
PERSON
's
Joe Matthew
PERSON
says no response so far from
the justice department
ORG
.
Tennessee
GPE
's former
Republican
NORP
Speaker
Glen Casada
PERSON
and his top aid have been arrested on federal charges including bribery kickbacks and conspiracy to commit money laundering with federal funds the
20
CARDINAL
count indictment alleges the man created a mailer company and a fake persona to receive state A jury has convicted
two
CARDINAL
men of conspiring to kidnap michigan governor
Gretchen Whitmer
PERSON
in
2020
DATE
and a plot that prosecutors describe as a rallying cry for a
US
GPE
A jury has convicted
two
CARDINAL
men of conspiring to kidnap michigan governor
Gretchen Whitmer
PERSON
in
2020
DATE
in a plot that prosecutors described as a rallying cry for a US Civil War by anti government extremists it was
Second
ORDINAL
trial for
Adam Fox
PERSON
in
Barry
GPE
Croft Jr after a jury in
April
DATE
could not reach a unanimous verdict Global news
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PERSON
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ORG
and our
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GPE
newsroom
Carol
PRODUCT
Master
Katie Grifeld
PERSON
on
this Tuesday, August 23
DATE
here in our interactive broker studio. Hey, we just talked to
Janet Lauren
PERSON
, our
Bloomberg News Higher Education Finance
ORG
reporter about the big take most red about the endowment in
Texas
GPE
,
University of Texas Specifically
ORG
. Couple stories when it comes to colleges, universities,
first
ORDINAL
of all,
Nancy Cook
PERSON
, a
Bloomberg
PERSON
,
Katie
PERSON
putting out a story about student loan relief, forgiving student loan debt will cost between 300000000009 180
1 billion dollars
MONEY
over
10 years'
DATE
to a new analysis with the majority relief going toward borrowers and the top
60%
PERCENT
of earn The whole idea was that it didn't go Yeah so these numbers definitely throw some water give some perspective to that argument these numbers of course are from the pen orton budget model estimate it was really
Tuesday
DATE
it had a present
Joe Biden's
PERSON
long anticipated decision as soon as
this week
DATE
on whether or not the
US
GPE
is going to forgive some student loan dad of course
the White House
ORG
has been Arguing against critics that this would add to rampant inflation obviously that's a big sore point for the
Biden
PERSON
administration right now. No, it's interesting. Inside the administration, there has been discussion in
recent weeks
DATE
and forgiving a higher amount of debt for low income bars who have already received pellets according to people familiar with Discussion. So, Something that we heard about a lot on the
2020
DATE
presidential campaign from then
Canada
GPE
Joe Biden
PERSON
so we will see ultimately what will come out I think we are expecting some decision on this very shortly in the meantime
Wheaton College
ORG
is a small private school in
Massachusetts
GPE
it had its credit rating cut
Two
CARDINAL
steps above junk by
moody's
ORG
investor service which sided challenges and increasing tuition revenue Tuition room and board and fees for the
2022
DATE
2023 academic year estimated to be
about $75 thousand
MONEY
but soon can pay less due to aid and we'd send that the average annual cost for new students in this academic year was under
20 1000
CARDINAL
for
more than a third
CARDINAL
of its students. So I guess some of these discounts what Mood Is pressuring some of the revenues for the university.
$75 thousand
MONEY
. That's a lot. That's a lot. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
.
Markets, headlines, and breaking news
24 hours
TIME
a day@Bloomberg. Com,
the Bloomberg Business app
ORG
. We've got
about an hour and 13 minutes
TIME
until the closing bell let's begin with a
day
DATE
's economic news because it was on the weak side sales of new
US
GPE
homes down in
July
DATE
for a
sixth
ORDINAL
time
this year
DATE
and at the same time
US
GPE
business activity in
the month of August
DATE
contracting for
a second straight month
DATE
that said it maybe Little premature to say these data points will create a change of part of the
fed
ORG
we're also learning
today
DATE
directors at
two
CARDINAL
of the regional
fed
ORG
banks
Saint Louis
GPE
and
Minneapolis
GPE
wanted a rate hike
last month
DATE
of a full percentage.
100
CARDINAL
basis points were seeing a move up on the longer end of the USU treasury
10 year
DATE
now at
304%
PERCENT
. Who are up by
more than three
CARDINAL
basis points very little movement on
the 2 year
DATE
right now at
329
CARDINAL
in the equity market we've got the down lower by
about four
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
with the Nasdaq composite push
Hire
PERSON
by
about two
CARDINAL
tens of
one%
ORG
in the broader market the S and P is down just a
10
CARDINAL
to one% the decline here led by real estate along with health care and utilities we're seeing a rally in energy stocks they're moving in tandem with a price of crude oil WTI right now Up by
more than three and a half percent
CARDINAL
in the electronic session where
9365
DATE
it seems as though the oil market senses a bit of risk of output cuts from Opec Plus given the gap that we've been describing between the high prices that you see in the physical oil market
Weakness
ORG
in the future's market
Saudi Arabia's
GPE
oil minister recently raising the possibility of production cuts to balance the market and I wanna touch on
Macy
ORG
's very quickly the day began with a retailer cutting its full year For profit and revenue even so the stock is up by nearly four% right now
UBS
ORG
saying
earlier today
TIME
the bad news may have already been priced in before
today
DATE
shares in
Macy
ORG
's where down
29%
PERCENT
so far this year Over
the coming decade
DATE
yep it's a big amount but still may not be enough to repair past damages to the agency so let's get to this story featured in the upcoming new issue of
Bloomberg Business Week
ORG
out
later this week
DATE
Bloomberg News
ORG
Congressional Tax reporter
Laura Davis
PERSON
and with us on the phone from our
Washington DC
GPE
bureau and business we get a digital webber with us on the access line in
Massachusetts
GPE
it sounds like a lot of money and that it should fix everything dull but It's not. It is a big number for sure and yet the surprising part as lower points out in the story is that because of
the past decade
DATE
of cuts and
Sort
PERSON
of normal electrician due to things like retirement. It may not really be enough. That and you know, Did I find really interesting which I'm sure we'll talk more about is you know this really gets down to like there's something government funds itself right and there has been a huge a version to actually like giving the
IRS
ORG
the the resources it needs to to do that and yet you know we're not that's not a light switch you can't turn that on
overnight
TIME
So so
Laura
PERSON
walk us through these numbers how how Fall is this number even though I know it.
Not a late switch. You can't turn that on
overnight
TIME
. So so
Laura
PERSON
, walk us through these numbers. How how Meaningful is this number even though I know it's a little bit of a of a wet blanket in terms of like it's not gonna instantly change anything, right? But it is not nothing. Yeah, correct. I mean,
80 1 billion dollars
MONEY
. You're just for context. That is number is a lot of money will be spread out over
a decade
DATE
. So, you know, kind of
roughly about eight 1 billion dollars
QUANTITY
a year. You know, on average that they'll get the
IRS
ORG
is regular budget, you know, is somewhere
around 12:14
CARDINAL
,
one 1 billion dollars
MONEY
. So, it's a, it's a really big number, but what they've gotta spend this on is a lot of what is essential Maintenance. They have computer systems that date back to the
1960
DATE
's. They have a lot of employees that they're going to need to bring in and train. The Airish has
about 80 1000
CARDINAL
employees kind of a height of the tax season. They're expected to lose Of those and over the course of
the next 5 years
DATE
due to retirement. Hey Facebook Computer monitored organization as they had their their own budget cut over
the Decades
DATE
so a lot of this is now just coming to
Ruth
PERSON
and they're really having to to look at you know kind of they have more work outdated systems and employees that are about to leave that you know we'll take all the knowledge with them out the door Employees in
the next 5 years
DATE
. Where are most of those losses coming from? Where are they going to have to hire? What kind of departments are we talking It's really, I mean, just because of, you know, that
50 1000
CARDINAL
number of
80 1000
CARDINAL
. It's really every unit. We'll see, you know, large losses, but you know, some of them are are employee are divisions that would automatically
Male
ORG
workers the
iris
PERSON
is largely been transitioning to you know digital filing but you know over half of that division is is set to retire in
the next couple of years
DATE
other you know even important divisions IT workers and also you know kind of their big units things like
Asians
NORP
and officers the people who actually are going out and conducting the aud Collecting the money answering the phones are all gonna see large losses over
the next several years
DATE
. Okay, so everybody's favorite word. Audit. When am I, when is it gonna happen to me? So it really depends who you are. The
IRS
ORG
has has committed and said that this will only impact people who earn
more than 400 1000 Dollars
MONEY
a year as well as large corporations
Republicans
NORP
have have disagreed with that number you know even talk to some tax or experts to say it can be a little bit more complicated than just a bright line you know here's incoming they don't touch anything below that however there's gonna be no immediate changes it takes a long time both to hire people get them trained to do this complex Can actually start selecting capture trends for audit and seeing results. You know, one text. Lawyer estimates you this could be
2026
DATE
,
2027
DATE
. It could be even longer before you really see that audit rate start to take up. Hey, Lord, just come back to
Adulsa
GPE
. I mean, this is how we help fund the government. So, you would think this would be figures cross the most efficient or
one
CARDINAL
of the most efficient, you know Organizations within the government and yet it's also, you know, become a bit of a political football. It really has and that has really you know created a lot of problems for the agency. It means that it's harder for them to recruit workers. You know it's a government agency. A lot of these people could Work in a private sector and make significantly more money in the
IRS
ORG
also just announced that they're doing their security review of all of their facilities because of threats that have been coming into the agency. So you could see how this is gonna be a big challenge for them. If you know you gotta convince To come work for potentially less money and you know have have a target on their forehead. And so when we think about sort of this wave of employees at the
IRS
ORG
would like to hire. I mean it's it's sort of similar to the aid that's coming in. It's not gonna hit at once necessarily like immediate relief. These employees have to be trained. I Yeah and for some of these employees, you know, to do these complex audits, which is
kinda
GPE
where the bulk of the, the revenue is going. It could take, you know, sometimes
3 or 4 years
DATE
to really get people to the point where they can, they can do this on their own. So, this is a long-term investment both in the people as well as the agency, and so that's why it's really gonna, you know, it's not until
almost a decade
DATE
That you'll really see kind of all of that
80 1 billion dollars
MONEY
put to work. So Lord you know the other element of this has been sort of the resistance you read about that
Republicans
NORP
have for the
IRS
ORG
and I'm curious you hinted this is
So Lord you know the other element of this has been sort of the resistance that you read about that
Republicans
NORP
have for their and I'm curious you hinted this is that they're they're have been some
Republican
NORP
representatives who have said you know we will roll this back and don't think that this is permanent how
Realistic
PERSON
is that? Well, it's there's a couple things that they'll need to do. One is only to control both the the house, the
senate
ORG
, and
the White House
ORG
. So, even you know, if
Republicans
NORP
win big in the midterms, they still have you know,
Joe Biden
PERSON
tickets ahead within
the White House
ORG
. So, it's not likely that in the next, you know,
2 years
DATE
or so that they could do anything but if you know, in
2024
DATE
,
Republicans
NORP
To have a full sleep. They could start defunding and calling back some of this money. That's going in. Of course, you know, it gets a little bit trickier once, you know, the money's been rotation for
a couple years
DATE
. You know, some of the things that that
Republicans
NORP
like, you know, having better customer service. If you start to see results there, they may be hesitant. For political purposes to pull all the money back. But it's certainly Something that's possible though, you know, unclear if or when that could happen. Just for service would be nice. I'm just gonna say. A great story and in the upcoming issue of
Bloomberg Business Week Magazine
ORG
, you can read it and it's entirety.
Laura Davison
PERSON
, thank you so much. Congressional tax reporter up
Bloomberg News
ORG
on the phone in our
Washington DC
GPE
bureau and are thanks to
Jill Weber
PERSON
as well. He is the editor of
Bloomberg Business Week Magazine
ORG
on the access line from
Massachusetts
GPE
. We said it's in the upcoming issue that Also at
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Com slash business week and all the
Bloomberg
GPE
terminal. Alright, you are listening and watching
Bloomberg Business Week
ORG
on
this Tuesday
DATE
. We're gonna check in with our TV teams, talk about the markets, and just a moment.
Carol Master
PERSON
,
Katie Griffeld
PERSON
, this is
Bloomberg Radio
ORG
.
Countdown to the clothes
Bloomberg
PERSON
's comprehensive cross platform coverage ahead of the
US
GPE
market close starts right now. It says countdown to the clothes
just 60 minutes
TIME
left in your training session
Caroline High
PERSON
Taylor Riggs
PERSON
Gina
Martin Adams
PERSON
join now by our colleagues
Carol Massa Katie
PERSON
Greyfeld infantimic we've together welcome you your audience if you're a TV radio
YouTube
ORG
addict we're currently seeing while lots of an addiction to trading these markets volumes are low and we're flat basically on the Yeah absolutely low I will say in terms of some out performance once again it's the energy names it's the outperformer of the year as we know it just pull up the energy select sector spider fund and it is up
about three and
CARDINAL
a quarter percent
today
DATE
's session this is
US Nat Gas Futures
ORG
hit $
10
MONEY
for the
first
ORDINAL
time since I wait and as
Saudi
NORP
has flagged the possibility of Plus cutting production in order to stabilize the volatile future's market. So, once again, surprise, surprise, energy, performer,
Katie
PERSON
. In our performer, a big mover.
Treasury
ORG
volatility. For example, big move
yesterday
DATE
probably gonna see another big move
today
DATE
. Anyone volatility just Cast your gaze on the natural gas market in the
US
GPE
as well
today
DATE
. There's a lot of volatility outside of the world of equities but Now we're seeing a lack of volatility when it comes to the overall benchmarks. I mean we are down just by
one
CARDINAL
.
Six
CARDINAL
points in the S and P. So totally flat
4136
DATE
after
yesterday
DATE
's sell off. The dollar. The moving a little bit more of my full tents have sent us 100
Seven
CARDINAL
points. Challenging to raise itself up
Tesla
ORG
having a lot to do that up
three tens of percent
PERCENT
the Russell 2000
WORK_OF_ART
as well actually smallcaps out performing on the day Gina Yeah and certainly a lot of wide dispersion between sector performance as well. So, don't be fooled by that really team headline of down oh. Four% for the S and P 500 because you've got a
500
CARDINAL
basis point spread between the winner on
the day
DATE
, energy, and the loser on the Real estate a very distinct sort of bond market skew to this as well though not only oil prices impacting the energy stocks trading higher but also when rising rates are
one
CARDINAL
of the big drivers of the equity market you tend to see real estate utilities come some of the defences like utility staples real estate under performed so they're definitely isn't bond Trying to find some fundamental influences while with some of the key movers on another white sort of unchay on sort of the headline in deceased underneath the surface and taking a look at
JM Smucker
ORG
of course the package food company boosting it's
annual
DATE
outlooks
Barclays
DATE
comes out saying that they're positive on that
Macy
ORG
's of course
Carolina
PRODUCT
great interview that you did cutting that full year forecast for profit
City
ORG
group though saying that such a prudent move for them to do and share a sort of rack positively as well to the downside take a look at
Metronic
PERSON
first quarter results did beat expectations they affirm that full year forecast And was there were positive but there are still continuing to highlight those macro economic concerns and so of course that is still a headwind for this company and
Paulo Alto Networks
ORG
that know that we were here after the closing bill
yesterday
DATE
when we got a lot of those
quarterly
DATE
results come out it advances Again Furthering Analyst expectations on some of the consensus numbers that they continue to put out analysts just continue to be positive singling out billings of course here as a key highlight And that pushes us forward to what earnings we expect after the bell. Tall brothers of course. Gonna be a great micro perspective on what is a pretty dye macro trend and once again evidence by the new home sales. Plummeting
today
DATE
's slowest pace since
early 2016
DATE
purchases dropping
12 almost 13%
PERCENT
way more than perhaps the actual small growth that we wear anticipating and
Decline
ORG
this year
DATE
. Really it does show that in some ways
the Federal Reserve
ORG
rate hikes are working
Carl
PERSON
. Yeah absolutely I'm curious what
Toll Brothers
ORG
has to say about those the higher rate higher mortgage rate environment and the impact it's having on that company. Speaking of rates
John Hatsy
PERSON
is over He waited on all of the discussion.
The higher rate, higher mortgage rate environment and the impact it's having on that company. Speaking of rates,
John Hatius
PERSON
over
Goldman Sax
ORG
, he's a chief economist. He weighed in on all of the rate discussion in hidden terms of his Implement when it comes to interest rates and he says that could maybe ultimately bring down inflation check it out. I think it could be
a couple of years
DATE
. I mean, really get to the, you get to the, you know, mid threes or or maybe even a little bit higher and then, then you stay there I think while inflation will look a lot better
a year from now
DATE
I think it'll still be significantly above the target and ultimately they do want to get back down to pretty close to
two%
ORG
So interesting. Write this kind of place into guys. The conversation we've been hearing and of course that was
Yan Hatu
PERSON
serve our
Goldman
PERSON
. But that maybe we see the
Fed
ORG
's targets day a little bit higher. An inflation stays a little bit higher because we we're gonna need that
Order
PERSON
for it to ultimately
Katie
PERSON
bring down inflation longer term it's really interesting to think about when we do hit terminal do we stay there to hotsies point I mean if you look at past hiking cycles the
fed
ORG
doesn't tend to stay at that Destination for too long before cutting but this recession could be different. This hiking Could be different and I mean it was inflation at
eight or
TIME
nine% right yeah I know exactly and I think that is the key is we're in a different type of environment this is a Environment than we've been in for
more than 20 years
DATE
so using
the last 20 years
DATE
as a representative of what to expect next is proven to be a giant fallacy and the other thing that I think we wanna look at is What does the health how slow was the
fed
ORG
getting going? We talked a lot
earlier today
DATE
.
Taylor
PERSON
talked about the
Taylor
PERSON
rule. The
Taylor
PERSON
rule says they've got a long ways to go to even get to neutral. So, I I sympathize with this case. I do think that it is more likely that it has to go much higher, frankly than they have in the past and we shouldn't expect what's happened in
2030 years
DATE
to be a representative of what we're is likely to happen in
the next year
DATE
or
two
CARDINAL
. It's just not realistic. I am curious too when you talk about some of the delay in getting going. We've often Won't even be felt until
the fourth quarter
DATE
. So, we're hiking and we're hiking and then Maybe I'll have a tire bed maybe the speed at which we get there I given some of those risks and Interesting when I was talking to the CEO
Macy
ORG
's earlier he was really saying it's all about the way in which we are a recession If her hair's consumer, if we talk about it too much, if the R word becomes too prevalent, if we do see that it becomes reality and it's consumers
June
DATE
dial back overall. The luxury and those still very strong, still willing to spend. Yeah. And as The stock market impact has yet to affect those earning affair amount. Right and how much can we talk ourselves into it? We talked about this a little bit
yesterday
DATE
as well. Can we talk ourselves into that giant R word of recession? The other thing I bring up though is how interest rate sensitive really is the economy. How interest rates sensitive is the household? When you're looking at the aggregate numbers, debt relative to Hey very very low debt service relative to GDP record low levels so that does give the
Fed
ORG
more wiggle room as well and I think maybe we're sort of underestimating that how how strong is this potential household story in an environment where debt doesn't look like it did for
10, 15 years
DATE
either. And I would add on the strong labor market also gives the
fed
ORG
some room to play with. If that starts to come undone, then maybe it's a different story going forward. Alright, that's gonna do it for now, folks. We will be back in
less than an hour's
TIME
time. Our cross platform coverage on radio, TV, and
YouTube
ORG
beyond the bell. We'll You down to the clothes on
this Tuesday
DATE
.
Tim Stenovic
PERSON
on
Bloomberg Radio Studio
ORG
at
Bloomberg
GPE
headquarters in
New York City
GPE
Bloomberg
GPE
business week. I don't know as we work our way through
the week
DATE
. Mm hmm. What do you think about with the markets? It is interesting that sort of note we ended on that they were still at a risk of talking ourselves Recession because obviously expectations inform how you behave that impacts the reality that we live in so I would understand it.
Right but he was somewhat optimistic about his consumer. It's funny in the makeup room
this morning
TIME
. This is an informal survey but I said to It's pretty crowded. Are you not spending
one
CARDINAL
person said yeah I'm thinking about it a little bit other people are like I'm spending a lot and those who are saying in particular that we're spending a lot all had kids And we're like, yeah, I'm out there, you know, back to school. Yeah. I'm out there spending. That's an important asteric. How about your world? Say I'm thinking about airfares. Like when is the best time to book? Especially, I don't know. It feels like prices are still really high right now but similar to what we're talking about in the heart, housing market. Right. What are those prices gonna crack? Cuz you're thinking about travelling. Yeah, I would love to. No no no Seems still really high. Agree, just watching, right? Could you think at some point there's gonna be a little bit of a tipping point where people are gonna start pull back and some of these numbers will come in. Anyway, add it all up. We're gonna have a lot more to talk about with our TV colleagues. We will count you down at the clothes at
4 PM Wall St
TIME
time. Right now though, back Hey
Nancy
PERSON
Thanks
Carol
PERSON
guilty verdicts
today
DATE
in the
second
ORDINAL
trial for
two
CARDINAL
man accused of trying to carry out a kidnapping plot against michigan governor
Gretchen Whitmer
PERSON
a jury also found out on
Fox
ORG
and
Barry Croft Junior
ORG
guilty of trying to obtain a bomb to blow up a bridge as part Kidnapping scheme.
Us
GPE
attorney
Andrew Burg
PERSON
says he's pleased with the juries decision. No golfer no public official should have to contend with what Governor Whitmer contended with here All over electric officials Everyone. The defendants though do plan to appeal.
Ukraine
GPE
is set to markets independent state from
Soviet
NORP
rule tomorrow it's also
6 months
DATE
into the
Russian
NORP
invasion
US
GPE
officials are warning of a potential
Russian
NORP
attack and So hearing from officials the
US
GPE
plans to announce a
three 1 billion dollars
MONEY
arms package to help
Ukraine
GPE
in its spy
Earlier today
TIME
Western
NORP
leaders at the
Crimea
ORG
platform conference in
Keith
GPE
warned
Russia
GPE
against Other parts of
Ukrainian
NORP
territory after
Crimea
ORG
a mid rumors
Russia
GPE
is planning to do so in various occupied areas outgoing
UK
GPE
Prime Minister
Boris Johnson
PERSON
spoke virtually Be more important for us all to stand together In defense of
the Principal of International Mall
ORG
which is that no territory, no country, Acquire territory
Johnson
PERSON
says
Britain
GPE
will never recognize
Russia
GPE
's annexation of crimeia or any other
Ukrainian
NORP
territory. Global news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and on
Bloomberg
PERSON
quick take powered by
more than 2700
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journalist and analyst in
more than 120
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countries I Nancy Lyons Auntie Lyons thank you so much
Nancy Lyons
PERSON
in our
99 one
CARDINAL
newsroom in
Washington DC
GPE
Carol Master
PERSON
along with
Katie Grayfeld
PERSON
on
this Tuesday
DATE
We talked about it on our plan in college. It was among the most read stories on the
Bloomberg
PERSON
today
DATE
. And perhaps things are changing a little bit when it comes to the powership between workers and employers right now,
Katie
PERSON
. Yeah, real dynamic shift from what we saw during the pandemic. This is a survey conducted by the Harris Poll for
Bloomberg News
ORG
58%
PERCENT
of respondents said that they believe companies have more leverage in the job market these days that's an increase of
five
CARDINAL
percentage points from So, definitely a change in sentiment,
Carol
PRODUCT
. That seems like a big deal. And it comes at a time when it's hard to really figure out exactly where the
US
GPE
economy is headed. If you just listened and watched our discussion with our TV colleagues, there are some strong data points. There's
some week
DATE
data points. Well, the more aggressive, will the
Fed
ORG
not? I mean, this is kind of where we are. I mean, on
one
CARDINAL
hand, the labor We know we say it over and over. It's red hot right now. The economy added double the number of jobs is expected
last month
DATE
and recent data show that initial unemployment claims drop for the
first
ORDINAL
time in
3 weeks
DATE
suggesting continued demand for labor. So, there's that going Right? Time think about all the headlines that we've been sorting through over the past
Unemployment claims drop for the
first
ORDINAL
time in
3 weeks
DATE
suggesting continue demand for labor so there's that going on right but at the same time think about all the headlines that we've been sorting through over
the past few weeks
DATE
Peloton
ORG
eliminated
hundreds
CARDINAL
of jobs and
half
CARDINAL
of you as companies according to a recent survey are planning layoffs of some form. So, again, it's not showing up in the big headline numbers yet but That. No, it's a backward looking sort of still. It's a little bit of a lag. It's best we have though, right? Exactly. Yeah, it is the best. With that in my employees say that they are feeling less empowered to ask for everything from raises to remote work, in the poll as
Katie
PERSON
said
59%
PERCENT
indicated that even though they would like a raise with inflation near the highest They don't feel comfortable asking for one. Yeah. Also change is the potential that people might have to return to the office many major firms are saying this will be
the last summer
DATE
fully remote work employees appear to be picking up the message remember all the stories like things are gonna change forever I like working from home when I can. I know you do. This is
Bloomberg Radio
ORG
.
24 hours
TIME
a day.
Less than 43 minutes
TIME
until the closing bell a mixed picture for the equity market let's get you caught up with a very latest will cross to the Bloomberg Macros Squap desk and check in with
Bill Meloni
PERSON
hey
Bill Hey
PERSON
, good
afternoon
TIME
. That's right. You stocks mixed in a quiet tape at the
Dow
ORG
currently down
104
CARDINAL
points. S and
P
ORG
's are little change and as that is higher by
40
CARDINAL
US
GPE
,
10 year old
DATE
at
304%
PERCENT
, gold is up
10
CARDINAL
oil is climbing, and bitcoin is higher by
two%
ORG
. Among the main
11
CARDINAL
After earnings After the bell Hey Bill thank you and if you have a
Bloomberg
NORP
terminal and you wanna get live audio updates on it the function is SQ U A then of course the green go key Business flash. Alright dawg thank you so much well this story it is another of our most read on the
Bloomberg
PERSON
today
DATE
it's about how the era of economic whiplash is just beginning although kitties you said earlier I'm like I I feel like I've been whipped last for like
2 years
DATE
straight now so it's too late what is the future hold it could be a new round alright so let's get more on this
Bloomberg
PERSON
opinion column
today
DATE
here is
Bloomberg
PERSON
opinion calmness
Eduardo Porter
PERSON
he covers
Latin America
LOC
US
GPE
economic policy immigration he's the author of
American
NORP
poison how racial has hostility destroy
Promise
PRODUCT
and more. He joins us here in studio.
Katie
PERSON
said like it does feel like we've had
a ton
QUANTITY
of whiplash already
this year
DATE
. So what are you writing about? Well that's true. The GDP going in another direction From what's been going on for
the last 2 years
DATE
, right? We got hacked by a momentous shock that we have never seen COVID. And we're coming out of that one and we're whacked by this massive energy Fiscal stimulus So what does the fall out look like what is the next wack look like? Well the next whack is coming from the
fed
ORG
right in one direction or the other and I think that that's what's moving the markets most. And looking at an economy that looks kinda like Crazy weeks suddenly
Labor
ORG
market that does not look that crazy week and inflation that's been running very hot but suddenly in
the last 2 months
DATE
seems to be you know stabilizing somewhat Over tightening and so I think that that's where we will we we will see the next big mover Right of the of the economy. Well, there's this line in your story and I know you've kind of hit at this already but I wanna go back to it. Like you say, these shocks, these crazy shocks. You know, the coronavirus pandemic,
Russia
GPE
's invasion of
Ukraine
GPE
, right? It's unbelievable and we don't.
Kind of hit at this already but I wanna go back to it. Like you say these shocks, these crazy shocks. You know, the coronavirus pandemic,
Russia
GPE
's invasion of
Ukraine
GPE
, right? It's unbelievable and we don't really know what it all is like on the other side. But I'd love Worth this. They might also tell us something real. Rejiggering economic relationships in a way that will complicate the policy response. So, is it just a case of data not reading things correctly or is it the relationships I've one another? Cuz as you say, it's like, we get something on the labor market Week and then we get something on the labor market that's strong like it's very difficult how to square all of this. I think there's the easy part There is some data issue. There is some mis measurement out there. So, the fact for instance that GDP and GDI which should by definition be the same thing are looking very different in the data. Across domestic investment and and gross domestic product. Right. A data mistake it's a data error Made a mistake or you just don't know I think the data that is used to to construct these these indecisive Is I think particularly noisy. Okay. So that's the easy part. The more difficult part is okay. What is we used to be we were accustomed to okay when the economy strong we see employment rising when the economy is weak we see employment falling and now we're seeing these relationships kinda like a little bit turned upside down so that's where you wonder okay how has this relationship changed And still of course I think that over the long run it's true in a week Employment. It's gonna go down because businesses are gonna start, you know, letting people go and stuff. So, over the long term, I'm sure that these things still hold but maybe there's new lags in the system, you know, because Trying to hire
last year
DATE
but we weren't finding enough workers and so we're
Whiplash
ORG
effects How these things work together? Whether that whiplash and that change of behavior becomes permanent. I mean, at the tail ends, if you look out farther, far enough, do you see, you know, the economy With businesses between businesses sort of returning to normal or do you think these will be some permanent changes? I'm kind of conservative. So, my guess is that we do go back to a normal that roughly looks like the normal that we had before. I don't see, you know,
Earth
LOC
is still a sea, you know? And and I but And one thing that I point to in the column is you know friends with this idea working from home
Working from home
ORG
is gonna stick around and suck to some degree. Right? Right hey
Edward
PERSON
just got
about 20 seconds 25 seconds
TIME
does the this whiplash increase the chances of a
fed
ORG
policy mistake just quickly Maybe you know the question is do I do it harder softer but you know whether it needs to cool it or it needs to you know not cool it Couple of years
Eduardo Porter
PERSON
economic policy and immigration calmness of
Bloomberg
PERSON
opinion right here in our interactive broker studio check him out add opinion on
Twitter Iheartradio
PERSON
.
Broadcasting live from the
Bloomberg
NORP
interactive broker studio in
New York
GPE
Bloomberg
11 three oh
DATE
to
Washington DC
GPE
Bloomberg
PERSON
99 one
CARDINAL
to
Boston
GPE
Bloomberg
1061
DATE
to
San Francisco
GPE
Bloomberg
960
CARDINAL
to the country series
XM
PERSON
channel
119
CARDINAL
and around the globe
Iheartradio
GPE
. Com. Alright, I'm just gonna put it out there. Been a little obsessed with this next story and sometimes I get obsessed with strange stories but this is about
Apple
ORG
and manufacturing the
iPhone
ORG
. In
India
GPE
. I'm really charmed by how obsessed you are with the story. No. Alright we'll get to it in just a moment
first
ORDINAL
step though back to the markets and the trading day
just 29 minutes ago
TIME
Doug Crisner
PERSON
The S and P has been fluctuating I think between games and losses right now we're down
just about a 10th
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
volume though on the light side in that maybe exaggerating some of this price action just a bit days economic news was on Premature to suggest that these reports are going to change the feds determination to fight inflation with higher interest rates.
Today
DATE
, we learned that directors at
two
CARDINAL
of the regional
fed
ORG
banks
St. Louis
GPE
and
Minneapolis
GPE
they wanted to hike rate
Last month
DATE
by
100
CARDINAL
basis points. Go to
10 year
DATE
treasury now up about a little
more than three
CARDINAL
basis points a kneel to
304%
PERCENT
.
The 2 year
DATE
interestingly down about a basis point to
329
CARDINAL
energy shares moving higher intended with the price of crude oil WTI now in the electronic session trading
9365
DATE
we're up
more than three
CARDINAL
. Six% The market senses the risk of output cuts cuts from
Opec
ORG
plus given the gap that we've been talking about between high prices in the physical market and weak futures contracts
Saudi Arabia's
GPE
oil minister put his finger on this earlier and raise the Ability of production cuts to balance the market I've got prisoner that your
Bloomberg
PERSON
business flush alright
Doug
PERSON
thank you very much for that update we've been giving you a lot of the most red stories on the
Bloomberg
PERSON
today
DATE
and this one let's add it on to that list it's also a
Bloomberg
GPE
exclusive a mid the sign or I guess maybe it is really I should say a sign of the Geopolitical tensions and it has to do with
Apple
ORG
and the manufacturing of the
iPhone
ORG
. So, let's get you it
Katie
PERSON
. Yeah, I'm excited to hear about this one. Joining us now to talk about it is
Onorag Rana
PERSON
of course of Bloomberg Intelligence. He's a senior software and IT services analyst. So the headline of the story,
Apple
ORG
's new
iPhone
ORG
to show
China
GPE
closing tech app with
China
GPE
,
Anticipated
NORP
In the
two
CARDINAL
companies.
China
GPE
closing tech app with
China
GPE
not closing a completely add some had anticipated but narrowing the gap between the
two
CARDINAL
companies walk us through why this matters I know
Carol
PERSON
is obsessed with the story of the But put it into layman's terms why this matters. I think it matters a lot less than You know, I I guess a new slash David. And I and I know it's a very important thing for
Apple
ORG
to diversify outside of
China
GPE
. But in our opinion that's going to take that kids. It's not going to be easy for them to do it. Because currently most of their products are assembled in
China
GPE
. It's said it is they have demand power. They have the volume. The the Hey let's say in
India
GPE
and
Foxton
PERSON
is going to create Or is going to assemble these phones it is going to take some pressure off of them but it's going to take
decades
DATE
before we you know I would say D precise shining anything significant way
Decades
DATE
I'm a pretty patient person on a rug but is it kinda where we're moving that a lot of manufacturers are looking I mean turn also is tired of being you know the world's manufacturer especially when it comes to kind of you know lower wages not it's not high tech that's Looking to move into. So, will we ultimately maybe in
a couple of decades
DATE
? We were not seeing, you know, a
China
GPE
manufacturer. Let's say for a company like
Apple
ORG
. It is going to again as a shocking to be easy and and for me the the answer is going Countries and geographies as well as robotics I think the advancement is robotics is going to be very important because you have to remember
Fox Conference
ORG
over a
one 1 million
CARDINAL
employees around the world it is going to be not easy to come up with that amount of labor so on this you know technology
Announcement
PERSON
can help do it they will parts labor supply all of those things matter because you know remember apples a lot about you know growth marches of extra so unless any of somebody is willing to pay
2030 percent
PERCENT
more so they icons it is not going to be easy for them to assemble it anywhere else I already pay a lot I'm just gonna say Okay so we have
decades
DATE
to wait here but I mean if we push out even further is there ever a future for
Apple
ORG
that doesn't include
China
GPE
? Hey it is going to be very difficult because remember right now
China
GPE
council
about 20%
PERCENT
of their revenue also it is one of the biggest growth markets not just for
Apple
ORG
but a lot of USB companies and biggest I would say growth driver a lot of people I would argue that in Whoever really can afford one and I probably has one right now and may need to upgrade it once in a while I get that part or you know younger people coming in but buying large the biggest roads drivers for the
iPhone
ORG
which drives most of
Apple's Avenue
ORG
is going to be emerging market
China
GPE
India
GPE
Brazil
GPE
Indonesia
GPE
and and other You know countries like that. You know I do think about the apple supply chain on a rug. You know this. It's legendary. An incredibly efficient and robust. I love you know watching you order something and how it works it's way you know from
China
GPE
into the hands of me and
the United States
GPE
here. But does the movement to
India Global
ORG
supply chains and where they may or are already moving even if just a little bit as we come off of
2 years
DATE
of the pandemic where everybody is obsessed with
kinda
GPE
rethinking their supply chains. Yes, they have to. I mean, I I think it's going to be in the eye. I think it's gonna be lot more in
Vietnam
GPE
. It's going to be
Mexico
GPE
. It's going to be all over the world because You know the I don't think anybody expected the supply chain to be impacted as much as you know it happened over
the last few years
DATE
so it everybody has to be rethinking the you know they're global supply chains and in my view it's not just because of you know
US
GPE
China
GPE
political tensions it it has to just do with why why Main concentrate in
1 year
DATE
.
Hey
China
GPE
political tensions it it has to just do with why why remain concentrated in
one
CARDINAL
geography or
one
CARDINAL
area anyway because of natural calamities An honor really quickly we got reporting
earlier this month
DATE
that
Apple
ORG
expects to maintain
iPhone
ORG
sales even as the market slows from what you can tell company still on track Yes I I did we just published a big analysis on this that we don't think that I want
40
CARDINAL
is going to be a big deal from a financial state because it's the same form factor with very minor upgrades. I think
next year
DATE
there's going to be a big refresh cycle for a lot of users. Because the economy is still you know a bit big I would say for For a lot of people to upgrade. Alright, so not now I'm for me to necessarily buy a new phone. I get away for
another year
DATE
.
Alright, Anaro
ORG
, thank you, thank you. When we wanna know things about
Apple
ORG
. Certainly
one
CARDINAL
of the guys that we reach out to and he is senior software and IT services analyst at
Blueberg Intelligence
ORG
turning us on the phone from
Chicago
GPE
. Alright, off to
DC
GPE
with another update on all the national With
Nancy Lyons
PERSON
head out thanks
Carol New York
PERSON
and
Florida
GPE
are the focus of
today
DATE
's primary elections
Bloomberg
PERSON
's
Washington
GPE
correspondent
Joe Matthew
PERSON
says in
New York City
GPE
thanks to redistricting
democratic
NORP
congressman
Jerry Nadler
PERSON
from the upper west side and
Carolyn
PERSON
From the upper east side are battling it out in a house primary. These are
two
CARDINAL
individuals who are elected at the same time in
1992
DATE
Rose into the leadership together have worked together and now find themselves staring across
Central Park
LOC
in what has become a bit of a bitter campaign.
Bloomberg
PERSON
's
Joe Matthew Governor's
PERSON
race in
Florida
GPE
Democratic
NORP
Congressman
Charlie Crist
PERSON
and state agriculture commissioner
Nikki Fried
PERSON
are fighting to become the potential opponent for
Republican
NORP
governor
Ron DeSantis
PERSON
. The
US
GPE
is urging its citizens to leave
Ukraine
GPE
. Official say they believe
Russia
GPE
's preparing to target civilian and government infrastructure as the war reaches
Ukrainian
NORP
government on celebrations in the capital cave on
tomorrow
DATE
's anniversary of independence from
Soviet
NORP
rule that was over fierce
Attack
PRODUCT
.
Michigan
GPE
Governor
Gretchen Whitmer
PERSON
says
today
DATE
's guilty verdict for
two
CARDINAL
men who tried to kidnapper shows those who tried to commit violence will be held accountable. This is
US
GPE
Attorney
Andrew Burch
PERSON
. Firms to this plot was very serious very dangerous
Oppose
PERSON
the threat not only the governor personally and her family but also the innocent bystanders and the basic social order.
Bird
ORG
says no public officials should live in fear that offends plan to appeal. Global news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and on
Bloomberg
PERSON
quick take powered by
more than 2700
CARDINAL
journalist and analyst him
more than one 20
CARDINAL
countries. I'm
Nancy Lyons
PERSON
.
Nancy Lyons
PERSON
, thank you so much.
Nancy Lyons
PERSON
in our
DC
GPE
newsroom. So, we mentioned of course the most red story on
the Blueburg Terminal
ORG
. Has to do with
Julian Robertson
PERSON
, hedge fund guru. He Somebody who set the tone created helped really create I feel like the industry that we talk about today really
one
CARDINAL
of his generation's most successful hedge fund managers a mentor to a wave of investors known as He has passed away at
the age of 90
DATE
. This is our most right story on the
Bloomberg
PERSON
. In the meantime, our
Hema Parmar
WORK_OF_ART
and
Catherine
PERSON
who follow the hedge fund industry. They have reached out to a bunch of well-known folks in the hedgehog industry to weigh in on his
Global
ORG
management
Lee Ansley
PERSON
from
Maverick Capital
ORG
John Griffin of
Blue Ridge
GPE
saying that the world has lost the roar of the person I have known for
30 1986
DATE
have been in virtually constant contact ever since he taught me not only about investing but about life. Well, and stand drug and
miller
ORG
also weighing in close friends his own family office and he says
Julian
NORP
was a founder of our industry Absolute giant so many ways. He was mentored to me in so many others. The tiger cubs are a legacy of mentored investors that will never be matched and while his intuitive genius produced amazing returns in the philanthropic achievement to used those returns to fund where equally imp I will always remember him for the class and dignity that was pervasive throughout I will miss him dearly as will so many
Achievement to used those returns to fund were equally impressive I will always remember him for the class and dignity that was pervasive throughout I will miss him dearly as will so many others he let an outstanding life and truly made a difference this again from
Standruck
PERSON
and
Miller
PERSON
And if you read through these memories I mean you see the word mentor over and over again this from
Chase Coleman
PERSON
of Tiger Global Management saying that he made time to be a true mentor always leading by example and pushing us all to become the best versions of ourselves for that and for his friendship I am forever grateful and we just think about how many people went out you know under his
Leadership
PRODUCT
learned and then went off to run their own hedge funds and investment organizations if you well and just really impacting another generation. Just an incredible legacy. Check out more of that story. You can find it@Bloomberg. Com. This is
Bloomberg Radio
ORG
.
Markets, headlines, and breaking news
24 hours
TIME
a day. As
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Com,
the Bloomberg Business app
ORG
. There are
fewer than 13 minutes
TIME
until the closing bell a mixed picture for the market we're seeing a little bit of weakness come through now for the S and P 500 down
about two
CARDINAL
chance of
one%
ORG
real estate in health care leading the decline here on the positive side though energy rallying with the S and P
500
CARDINAL
energy Up
about three
CARDINAL
. Nine% energy shares tracking the price of crude oil higher
Saudi Arabia's
GPE
oil minister recently raising the possibility of production cuts as a way of balancing the market in the extended session right now WTI higher by
more than three
CARDINAL
. Six% we're at
93
CARDINAL
Nasdaq
ORG
comp is essentially flat wanna touch on
Macy
ORG
's very quickly shares her up three% even after the company cut its
full year
DATE
forecast for both profit and revenue
UBS
ORG
saying
today
DATE
the bad news may have already been priced in Before
today
DATE
through
monday
DATE
's close macy shares were down
29%
PERCENT
also showing weakness
today
DATE
zoom video shares are off
16%
PERCENT
After the bell
yesterday
DATE
we learned that the company cut its
annual
DATE
revenue forecast apparently zoomed fail to add as many enterprise customers in
the last quarter
DATE
as analyst had expected
days
DATE
economic news was on the weak side sales of new homes in
July
DATE
down for a
sixth
ORDINAL
straight tum month I should say and Best business activity contracting in
August
DATE
for
a second straight month
DATE
. It may be premature to say these reports are gonna change the
Fed
ORG
's mission of fighting inflation with higher rates.
Today
DATE
, we learned directors at
two
CARDINAL
regional
fed
ORG
banks wanted to high grades
last month
DATE
by
100
CARDINAL
basis points.
Bloomberg
PERSON
business flash. Thank you so much. And it is
349
CARDINAL
on Wall St. The following is an editorial from
Bloomberg
GPE
,
Penyan
PERSON
. Was written by the
Bloomberg
PERSON
editorial board President wants Western countries to ban
Russian
NORP
travelers in hopes of boosting pressure against President
Vladimir Putin
PERSON
such measures may seem appealing in light of
Putin
PERSON
's invasion but a blanket travel ban would be the wrong response.
The European Union
ORG
has better and fairer For example if could focus on ending on you visa privileges for
Russia
GPE
's oligarchs and offer humanitarian visas to help opponents of the regime it should also encourage up brain drain of students and scientists which would help erode
Putin
PERSON
's ability to sustain his
Invasion
FAC
and repression such measures will be more complicated and perhaps less satisfying than simply rejecting
Russian
NORP
entrance wholesale but they'd be better for
Europe
LOC
and crucially far more likely to hit
Putin
PERSON
where it hurts this auditorial was written by the
Bloomberg
PERSON
For more
Bloomberg
PERSON
opinion please go to
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Com slash opinion or
OPIN
GPE
go on the Bloomberg Terminal
Bloomberg
PERSON
opinion. Oh no no no. It's the question that drives us. This is the drive to the club. Dawn. Here we go everybody
just about 9 minutes
TIME
left in
today
DATE
's trading session driving towards the clothes we are just off our lows of the session but little change about the S and P the Nasdaq Just heard from
Doug
PERSON
. Down
about half a percent
PERCENT
on the
Dow Jones
ORG
industrial average. Here in studio with us, we welcome
Ken Van Luen
PERSON
, CEO, founder, Imagine Director of the
Wealth Management
ORG
firm,
Van Luen
PERSON
and Company. He is as we mentioned here in our studio. Nice Here with
Katie
PERSON
and myself, how are you? Nice to be here. Thanks for having me. Well, it's great to hear.
As we mentioned here in our studio nice of you here with
Katie
PERSON
and myself how are you? Nice to be here thanks for having me. Well it's great to have you here. We've been talking of course a lot about a big macro themes but front center is the passing of
Julian Robertson
PERSON
. It is our most red story on the
Bloomberg
PERSON
90 Years old
DATE
, a legend in the hedge fund industry. For a while how do you think about it Well
Julian
NORP
while I had never met him was always considered to be someone of an icon in the industry a gentleman I've you know he was from the south so he embit bodied all of those ideals
Tiger Cubs
PERSON
underneath him. Yeah. Right so many people learn so many great things and he passed along Call on code secrets to them and now they continue to apply the trade and probably the secrets are continuing to be passed on. So, and just you know, a tremendous business person, philanthropist, gentleman, Probably dad. Father. Right? Pretty neatly to you know this sort of environment that we're in right now. Oh totally I mean because even in our own shop right now when we're managing assets right we're not take well we never because we're fiduciaries you can't take bigger than five% position so the but you know you take a little positions cuz you're really not sure what's working and what's not because as we're seeing it can turn on a dime and it can turn instantaneously and
today
DATE
Vice versa. Like
Julian
NORP
, you are a stock picker and you do though take some positions. You
two
CARDINAL
at least at this point health care staples in telecom those are your big
three
CARDINAL
areas that you're finding opportunities or at least allocating new money correct I mean what we're doing is we're looking especially like a couple companies like TJ Maxx I think still is anything recession proof What's a recession that hasn't been defined yet? But TJ Maxx is considered a bargain hunter's paradise so people of all income streams will will go to a TJ Maxx. So, we like that very much. It's a very well-run company and off-price retailing because right now, they're getting from some tremendous buys in the market. We like them. They're well positioned. We like health care because health care again is one of those areas That can weather the storm. We are been talking a lot about health care. I feel like since the inflation reduction act and there's initiatives in there but I just feel like, you know,
Amazon
ORG
and others pursuing a company. We just feel like there's a lot going on in the health care space right now. Especially health insurance, right? Health. Elevance health. I mean these are some really strong financial companies with big market positions. And people pay their premiums for lack of a better world. So, TJ Maxx, health care, health insurance, we like those, what are you avoiding right now? What doesn't look good? Of course, anything gold related right now, minors in particular were avoiding. Interesting. Because we don't see them right now, you know, like if you look at the gold, just the
GLD
ORG
. It hasn't performed well at all even during this quote unquote inflationary environment that we we've had. It's not working. So, why be there? So that's that's an area that we're not in. Thankfully we were able to come out of a little bit of energy where slowly inching back into energy you are yeah we like it don't try the energy trade basically don't fight it because you know hey look as we go towards
the end of the year
DATE
and we have to remember it's already gonna be
September
DATE
in
a couple of weeks
DATE
that's right we're gonna Yeah, I know. Right we're gonna start to you know people are gonna wanna show up at
the end of the year
DATE
with things that have worked in their portfolios so energy is clearly work this year Tool company. Funny money managers come in here and they're like a lot of them talk about Name what specifically about it It's
first
ORDINAL
of all just right it's that handyman specialty it's that small contractor the guy who's busy the convenience of snap on remember they bring the tools to your site you don't have to track right the trucks you don't have.
All contractor. The guy who's busy, the convenience of snap on, remember they bring the tools to your site, do you don't have to talk? You don't have to go to your hardware store. Order them. They come right to you. And it's a tremendously well run company. They just increase their dividend a little bit Ago and those are companies we look for, right? That are economically healthy that are raising their dividends and have the confidence to do so going forward, you know, because we hear about what the CEOs are thinking about the, you know,
the next 6 months
DATE
,
9 months
DATE
,
year
DATE
. So, you care when a company comes out, reports their earnings and We're maintaining our dividend. We're raising our dividend. We're doing buybacks That is certainly something you've taken to consideration. Very much so. Very much so. Fix income market do you see any opportunities there as we talk about dividends and that consistent cash flow High yields Is going to be good for a lot of people. Substantially
earlier in the year
DATE
so much so if we remember we look back at the analyst
Whitman
PERSON
I think she basically talked How tremendously Opportunity in the spring was a municipal bonds honestly Alright we're gonna have to leave it on that note. Thank you so much. Good to talk names with you. Really appreciate it. And come back soon. Thank you for your time.
Kim Van Lu
PERSON
and CEO, founder at
Imagine
ORG
Director of
Van Luinen Company
ORG
doing us here in our interactive broker studio and folks, we just have
a few minutes
TIME
left in
today
DATE
's trading session
just about two and a half minutes
CARDINAL
and we are seeing equities. It's been kind of a choppy We've been staying near our lows of the session really for
the last few hours
TIME
and right now we're relatively flat on the S and P that was down
about one third
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
call it flat slight gain when it comes to the Nasdaq it's just up a hair up
eight
CARDINAL
points at
12 389
CARDINAL
alright right now it is time for a cross From coverage on radio, TV, and
YouTube
ORG
. We're gonna head over to our TV colleagues for beyond the bell and we're gonna count you down to the clothes on
this Tuesday
DATE
. Here. Full market coverage on the back.
Bloomberg
PERSON
's comprehensive cross platform coverage of the
US
GPE
market closed starts right now. We are
about 2 minutes
TIME
away from the end of the trading day
Caroline
GPE
Highs
Taylor Riggs
PERSON
and
Gina Martin Adams
PERSON
counting you down to the closing bell hit us to help Beyond the bell is our global simulcast.
Carol Massa
PERSON
,
Katie
PERSON
's Greyfeld in for
Tim Stanovic
PERSON
. We bring together our TV radio and
YouTube
ORG
yes ladies day again. And we love it. There's a lot of love on
Twitter
PRODUCT
, on
LinkedIn
GPE
, really. So, I'm the only one that gets the email. Well,
Tim
PERSON
I'm missing much of you looking at the benchmarks girl alright exactly we really haven't moved around too much and we're pretty flat on
the day
DATE
here slight gain holding on to the Nasdaq and if you look at the S and
500
CARDINAL
kind of even split
210
PRODUCT
names higher 289 lower
four
CARDINAL
and changes just like investors some buyers some sellers that feels like the trade
today
DATE
and if you focus In particular it is just remarkably Countdown to the big events at
the end of the week
DATE
Oh, that big event.
Katie
PERSON
, are we still speaking in tongue? You mean
Jackson Hall
PERSON
? That's big event. But who's counting? We think about her
2 year
DATE
yield. It started
that week
DATE
auction that we've talked about. Maybe unch on the day though. You're really seeing a lot of moving of Maybe fewer concerns about global growth on the horizon but you would know it if you saw some of the housing and some of those
PMI
ORG
data Yeah and you wouldn't you don't really see that showing up in the sector or industry performance either and it seems that the market is really more trading on the macro trading more on what we're seeing in oil prices versus Yeah the market itself is flat but the sector is an industry show a lot of dispersion but not necessarily closely linked to that economic data. Look at you say in trading
Show a lot of dispersion but not necessarily closely linked to that economic data. Have a look at you say in trading on the macro not many people were actually really trading
today
DATE
volumes are like we're off by
about 11%
PERCENT
on the S and P 500 however we were losing some steam just into the market
12381
DATE
is where we close down also lost a little bit of we're off by
five
CARDINAL
Industrial average
154
CARDINAL
points lower let's look at the russell
2000
DATE
there cos that had been an area of growth that really been shining light on and at
two
CARDINAL
lost a lot of its games were only up by
two
CARDINAL
tenths of a percent on the day Yeah and one of the things I've been watching is Tesla shares they were up another
Today
DATE
's session don't forget that
341
CARDINAL
stock split hits a little bit later on
this week
DATE
they will begin trading on a split adjusted basis come
August 25
DATE
but some gains in what's been a pretty down market
today
DATE
absolutely And it honestly the game's really concentrated though as much as I would like to say there were more games than there are very concentrated in energy as you can see even in the industry view here energy Up
three
CARDINAL
. Seven% on
the day
DATE
really a big stand out but we did get a little lift for autos
Tesla
ORG
's news Helping the auto space now up
two%
ORG
on the day and then on the other end of the spectrum all of those defensives healthcare defensive and pharma health care equipment and services as well as the consumer staples in real estate names so a very risk Risk day where the defensives are under performing dramatically only energy and odd is really standing out at the top of the charts. Yeah, a lot of red in
today
DATE
's trade. As for some of the individual gainers, Gina,
Intel
ORG
, caught my attention, add its highs, was up more than
one%
ORG
almost actually up Came out talked about a joint venture with
Brookfield
PERSON
to jointly invest up to
30 1 billion dollars
MONEY
in ship factories in
Arizona
GPE
around Bloomberg
Intelligence Team
ORG
noting that Packed me provide a modest boost to earnings and reduce the capital outlay for its modernization plan so I thought that was kind of interesting
Macy
ORG
's
Caroline
ORG
doing getting some great commentary from from that company CEO oh thanks Welcome welcome
Macy
ORG
's ending up
about three
CARDINAL
. Seven% well off its highs at
one
CARDINAL
point up almost nine%
today
DATE
's session company did lower its full sales and earnings that look but did talk about being committed to remate it's remaining
one
CARDINAL
.
Four
CARDINAL
for
one 1 billion dollars
MONEY
buyback and dividend And then, you know, it's forecast. Wall St may be saying some of the downward news already reflected in some of the results here and I did wanna mention
Palo Alto Network's
ORG
top in the Nasdaq 100 up
12%
PERCENT
holding on to the
day
DATE
's gains, reported better
Expected quarter
ORG
results
last night
TIME
. We talked about it. On our simulcast and predicted full year revenue that exceeded
Alice
ORG
expectation. So, a mega app performer
today
DATE
,
Katie
PERSON
. Well, if we look at some of the mega under performers, we have to start with
Zoom
PERSON
, of course, reported really ugly earnings after the bell
yesterday
DATE
to recap,
Zoom
PERSON
reported it's lowest
quarterly
DATE
sales gain Lowest level since
January 2020
DATE
just to wipe out also a
Twitter
PERSON
taping a bit of a dye there was a lot of drama on this name
today
DATE
Twitter
PERSON
's former head of security filed
Complaint
ORG
alleging that there were quote egregious deficiencies Insecurity protections of course
Elon Musk's
PERSON
lawyers coming out and saying that they've subpoenaed that whistleblower
Twitter
PRODUCT
shares down by more than seven% and
Domino's Pizza
WORK_OF_ART
to taking a bit of a dive news
today
DATE
that
Bill Ackman's
PERSON
Persian Square
LOC
has sold its According to filings domino shares down also. And
Domino
PERSON
's a course the company that's having to weather pretty high commodity costs when it's on the soft agricultural side of things I'm looking at on global macro movers and actually corn was on the higher
Brazilian
NORP
weather and I'm looking on the high side also come on she's a branch crew WTI crew powering up more than Take on volatility and what they mean is we'll be there to well cut back production should we need to and the market moves on the back of that dollar weakness probably also happening a little bit we see still getting a little bit of bit on but really some of the vola Coming into natural gas here in the
US
GPE
. We've seen
He's still getting a little bit of it on but really some of the volatility coming into natural Here in the
US
GPE
. We've seen elevated prices just records being hidden
Europe
LOC
. Here in the
US
GPE
, we hit $
10
MONEY
.
First
ORDINAL
time since it's
2008
DATE
then we back
Down
PERSON
. Might have to delay or reopening. That's of course being freeport energy. I'm looking what's happening in an effect spectrum and for once we had a bit more dollar weakness
today
DATE
after the strength seen
yesterday
DATE
. We have a strengthening loony sewed oil helping of course the
Canadian
NORP
dollar go higher too with the
Norwegian
NORP
Well strengthening the back of the all move but on the downside really is
US
GPE
dollar and the
Euro
ORG
even managing to pick up but most of the animals out there are saying
Europe
LOC
missing the
Euro
ORG
zone and an issue and
Euro
PERSON
is likely to only be the beginning of how weak it is at the moment. We're seeing weakness across And bonds too. Little bit of that as well here within
415
CARDINAL
credit
Caroline
NORP
price lower yield higher so the weakness of course in the price is you're getting sort of a lift across the curve up
Four
CARDINAL
basis points are so pretty much from
10
CARDINAL
out to
30
CARDINAL
when you think about duration yields on the front end unch unchanged as we of course a weight
Friday
DATE
with
Jackson
PERSON
home we started continue to go cross As we always do wrap up the old space. Go back to the
quarterly
DATE
results that earning space. I'm gonna take a look at shares that in to it and I think what's really interesting.
Fourth quarter
DATE
net revenue comes in better than expected.
Two. 4 billion
MONEY
versus assessments of
234
CARDINAL
. And a bottom line improvement as well.
Fourth quarter
DATE
Did
EPS
ORG
a dollar
10
CARDINAL
estimates for
ยข98
ORG
and looking at forward guidance maybe a little bit light when you think about the bottom line first quarter adjusted EPS
114
CARDINAL
to
120
CARDINAL
estimates have been for
186
CARDINAL
and yet there is sort of Buy back and the dividend as well
Carolina
LOC
gets analyst excited too. Alright we do wanna get to
Nordstrom
PERSON
cuz they too have just reported after the closing bell this stock initially dropping in
the after hours
TIME
it's still down about six% seven% here and I'm going right to the outlook cuz the company
Fiscal year
DATE
adjusted
EPS
ORG
$
230
MONEY
. To
260
CARDINAL
a share they had seen
320 to 350
CARDINAL
so that is a big readjustment if you will still sees your revenue up
six
CARDINAL
to eight% second quarter total revenue four. 10 billion South Estimate that was out there was
399
CARDINAL
. Looking at the press conference we are seeing the CEO say while our
quarterly
DATE
results were consistent with our previous outlook customer traffic and demand decelerated significantly beginning in
late June
DATE
predominantly at
Nordstrom Rock
FAC
So some issues in terms of consumers but also some issues in terms of inventory is interesting that
Macy
ORG
's CEO Chamber was saying look our inventory we think's gonna prove good space but the industry is awful nor is from saying we look at
the Half of the year
DATE
we are aggressively right sizing our inventory while investing in supply chain and much merchandise and cap
Mean Katie
PERSON
this is an issue of some companies got the too much of the wrong thing in the currently in their stores in particular everything that we di And that's gonna be a key issue that are gonna have to sell them off until them off heavily discount And especially expected to be a key issue again is we head into
the holiday season
DATE
a critical season what do you think about the
Nordstrom
PERSON
reaction that we're seeing after hours down seven% remember there was a lot of good news prices the stock after
Macy
ORG
's reserve results earlier it seems like that's being unwound in a big way and then some now alright folks as you've been to Nords About seven% the after hours into it though now with a gain of about four% so we'll follow them into the
Wednesday
DATE
trade alright that's a wrap our cross platform coverage radio TV YouTube we call it beyond the bell we will catch you same time same place tomorrow
Tim Stenovic
PERSON
on
Bloomberg Radio Are
ORG
you listening and watching
Bloomberg
PERSON
business week on
this Tuesday
DATE
and I'm just watching these share prices here in
the after hours
TIME
cuz we're seeing some big moves and certainly something will be probably be talking about
tomorrow
DATE
but the big one I feel like is
Nordstrom
PERSON
down about nine%
Katie
PERSON
. Absolutely and again think about the rally
Sort
PERSON
of the forecast there that downgrade and what they're expecting out of
EPS
ORG
. Yeah, I think it's tricky is that
I didn't quite pan out for
Nordstrom
PERSON
when you think about sort of the forecast there that downgrade and what they're expecting out of
EPS
ORG
. Yeah, I think it's tricky is that I think we talk about it a lot here at at
Bloomberg
PERSON
is that especially when it comes to the retail sector not everything is alike and we've talked about the wealthier consumer and high end you know retail seeming to hold up better and I would say that
Georgeton
PERSON
plays into that but again if you've got your inventory levels wrong you don't have what customers want Be a problem. As of
today
DATE
's Heading into the clothes but that could change. Yeah. After
hours
TIME
reaction. Yeah.
About 10%
PERCENT
. Alright, back to world the national news, back to
Nancy Lyons
PERSON
in
DC
GPE
. Hey,
Nancy
PERSON
. Thanks,
Carol
PRODUCT
.
Two
CARDINAL
men face life in prison after being convicted of conspiracy to kidnap michigan governor The verdict came after Jerus heard
more than a
DATE
week
DATE
's worth of testimony in the case against
Adam Fox
PERSON
and
Barry Croft FBI
ORG
assistant special In charge
David Porter
PERSON
says the man plan to take their political disagreements to a dangerous level You can vote your elected officials out of office. However Assistant special agent
Porter
PERSON
both men do plan to appeal
today
DATE
's verdict.
Twitter
PERSON
's former head of security is filed a complaint with the
US
GPE
government claiming severe shortcomings and how
Twitter
PERSON
handles user data. The formal complaint alleged egregious deficiencies in
Twitter Defenses
PRODUCT
against tackers and other lacks approaches to security. The
washington
GPE
post first reported the claims which include out of date software prioritizing growth over reducing the number of spam accounts and executives with holding About breaches how lawmakers confirm the complaint saying they're already reviewing the disclosure and they're looking into what to do next in
washington
GPE
i'm anymore as
Bloomberg
PERSON
radio
House
ORG
plans to make its long awaited announcement on student debt relief
tomorrow
DATE
that's according to people familiar with the timing
Said
PERSON
the announcement is not fully clear. It's being closely guarded. President
Joe Biden
PERSON
's decision has been long anticipated as he grapples with delivering targeted relief while weighing any fallout including on already rampant inflation. News
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake I'm
Nancy Lions
PERSON
.
Alright
ORG
,
Nancy
PERSON
, thank you so much,
Nancy Lyons
PERSON
in
DC
GPE
. Right now, you're listing and watching
Carol Master
PERSON
,
Katie Griffell
PERSON
,
Dumplinburg
GPE
business week, and just real quick rehash at
two
CARDINAL
stocks on the move in the aftermarket. Share some JWN. We're talking
10 11%
PERCENT
this after the company and the big deal is what they had to say
about fiscal year
DATE
revenue so the outlook they're expecting five to seven% in terms of growth they had seen
six
CARDINAL
to eight% so right now they are looking for
fiscal year
DATE
revenue they're looking
Fiscal year
DATE
adjusted I lost my headline They moved it around here. Cuz
the second quarter
DATE
was actually a beat when it came to revenue. So let me just pull it up again. In terms of
fiscal year
DATE
revenue. They're cutting it. Physically physically your
22
CARDINAL
adjusted
EPS
ORG
.
230
CARDINAL
to
260
CARDINAL
. It had been what?
320
CARDINAL
to
350
CARDINAL
. So it's dramatic cut there. But tail to earnings again because we got into it after Over
year
DATE
the estimate had been for
ยข98
ORG
so that If you look at
the first quarter
DATE
forecast they do see adjusted
EPS
ORG
$
114
MONEY
. To $
120
MONEY
. The estimate had been for $
one
MONEY
and Up over four% or so at this moment. Alright, so we're gonna watch for those companies certainly in the
Wednesday
DATE
trade as Northstream is under pressure but into it is rallying in the meantime, a little light affair, maybe we all need it. On
this Tuesday
DATE
in
August
DATE
and
late August
DATE
. I'll actually yacht. Once owned by
Billionaire Dimitri Pompansky
PERSON
has attracted
63
DATE
bids in
Gibraltar
GPE
in the
first
ORDINAL
public auction of an asset sees it's the start of the war in
Ukraine
GPE
. We are talking about
five
CARDINAL
decks,
72
CARDINAL
m yacht, it was put up for After JP. It's a floating palace. It boasts an infinity swim.
One 1 million dollars
MONEY
loan tied to the vessel it's a floating palace it posts an infinity swimming pool plus a threeD cinema so we talked about right right after the war in a lot of seizure of
Russian
NORP
assets but it is the
first
ORDINAL
super yacht to be publicly auction Since
Russia
GPE
's in
Beijing
GPE
of
Ukraine
GPE
pushed authorities to freeze luxury vessels in ports around the world. Markets headlines and breaking news
24 hours
TIME
a day. This is a
bloomberg
PERSON
business flash. So we had good news and bad news after the bell what do you want first the good news okay into it with numbers after the video please
So we had good news and bad news after the bell what do you want first the good news okay into it with numbers after the video
Fourth quarter
DATE
adjusted
EPS
ORG
beating estimates and shares right now higher by more than four% of the late session that said on now the bad news
Nordstrom
PERSON
with full year revenue of forecast of a range between five% up to seven% up that's a little bit Below what the company saw earlier. They were forecasting in the last messaging of anywhere between positive
six
CARDINAL
to positive eight%. So, I'm looking at the stock right now in the late
US
GPE
session Down
11%
PERCENT
. Hey, okay. So, during the regular session, the equity market was kind of mixed. It was very light day of trading
summertime
DATE
volume. We get that, we had some weekend economic news, sales of new homes down in
July
DATE
for a
six
CARDINAL
time
this year
DATE
and
US
GPE
business activity in
the month of August
DATE
can tracking for
a second straight month
DATE
but I think it's fair to say if you're betting These reports will in any way shift the
fed
ORG
's mission on fighting inflation with higher interest rates you may be mistaken because today we learned directors at
two
CARDINAL
regional
fed
ORG
banks
Saint Louis
GPE
and
Minneapolis
GPE
they wanted a rate high class month of
100
CARDINAL
basis points so
the 10 year
DATE
last coded in
New York
GPE
at
306%
PERCENT
. We were up nearly
Basis
LOC
points on
the day
DATE
. In the regular session a
half
CARDINAL
of one% That is your
Bloomberg
GPE
business flash. Always something. Keeping us on our toes. Alright,
Doug Crisner
PERSON
, thank you so. Alright you are listening to
Bloomberg
GPE
Business Week
Carol Master
PERSON
along with
Katie Greifeld
PERSON
well
last week
DATE
John's Hopkins
ORG
joined and
Permanent day
DATE
,
NBA
ORG
star,
Andre Iguadala
PERSON
, and others in an
80 1 million dollars
MONEY
series be funding round for incredible health, pushing the company into unicorn status. So, here with us on the funny race and really an update on her world, we will come back Doctor
Iman Abuze
PERSON
, she's CEO and co-founder of incredible health, a frequent guest Here on business week and we do like to remind our audience that her company is all about connecting hospitals with nurses and other health care workers and she joins us on the phone from
Austin
GPE
,
Texas
GPE
on
this Tuesday
DATE
. Doctor Abuze, nice to have you here with us. How are you? I'm doing well. Thank you so much for having me. Alright, we gotta talk about this funding raise. Really impressive. You're now a unicorn. Some really interesting people who are involved in that funding raise. What does that mean for you? Alright so it means that we're now the highest the highest values that enables career marketplace for healthcare workers in the
US
GPE
today our valuation is about one.
65 billion
CARDINAL
for the
first
ORDINAL
time we've had our customers Hey Facebook Which really positions us as the leaders in in healthcare hiring So maybe an obvious question but this latest round
80 1 million dollars
MONEY
what will you be using the money on? Will you send the money in
three
CARDINAL
C areas
first
ORDINAL
to an
R&B
ORG
you know so investing in the hiring workflow and automating it with machine learning technology Automating the screening, automating the matching, just so it's increasingly more personalized and more automated for both the healthcare workers and the employers. We're also gonna be investing in career resources for nurses. And so they're using us over the course of their entire career. That includes still growth, scheduling services, Educational scholarships, cross training, all which is completely free of charge for for nurses. And so we are the place where the manager of
Korea
GPE
and then frankly just, you know, expansion, you know, expansion beyond her group. And beyond hospital Doctor Abuze step back I mean I gave a quick brief description of what you guys are doing but really explore the the platform with our audience to remind them exactly what you are doing who is on it how many Well, I'm really the growth that you are seeing month to month Sure hospitals and other health care employers that use incredible health custom matching technology to hire high quality permanent nurses in
less than 14 days
DATE
instead of the industry average of
80
CARDINAL
Hey And average of
Hey
Two 1 million dollars
MONEY
in travelers cost overtime cost in HR cost and then there's reviews in our platform An average of salary increases
about 15%
PERCENT
and reductions in commute time I guess it's over
the last year
DATE
in
2021
DATE
we do top line revenue over
500%
PERCENT
we've now expanded to over
600
CARDINAL
hospitals across
25
CARDINAL
states we work in very large health systems including HDA health care and kind of Medical centers like
Stanford
ORG
to sign in
Sean Hawkins
PERSON
and we have over 10 1000 nurses joining our platform
every single week
DATE
. And that industry average of
82 days
DATE
which you've shortened to
14 days
DATE
how does
82 days
DATE
that average now compared to what we've seen in the past I guess what I'm asking is did the pandemic Read that has that average grown longer? The pandemic has definitely exacerbated that number so that average house gotten longer because we are sick continuing to face the various severe labor shortage in nursing and as well as other healthcare professionals and then the other team number that pandemic Turn over you know the average turnover for nurses in the
US
GPE
was
about 17%
PERCENT
before the pandemic is now on average
21 and a half percent
DATE
Well tell us all about i was talking to somebody within the nursing community and just said
Monkey
PRODUCT
pox you name it Individuals, man, people who are in the nursing field, have just kind of had it. Have we lost or how many have we lost from this field? So we are increasingly losing nurses from this field so our
third
ORDINAL
annual data report from
earlier this year
DATE
showed that
one third
CARDINAL
of nurses are considering meeting the profession permanently by
the end of 2022
DATE
and so this is a workforce that has been negatively Some cases you know decimated by the pandemic they are being overworked And and and experience the extreme fatigue and stress and burnout at the moment And how do you how do you address retention than if you know burnout is such a big issue? Hey couple key ways
first
ORDINAL
you know are the employers using our platform enjoy a
15%
PERCENT
increase and within their baseline retention rate Able to consider multiple opportunities before selecting that specific employer. But you know, we also, you know, in our surveys, in our data shows The top reasons why nurses are changing jobs. By far the number one is career advancement. They're looking for more career advancements. They want motor skills, move into leadership, cross train, become more specialized, and so the hospitals and health assistants that are investing in career dance at Are enjoying better retention rates too. Doctor Abrazade we only have
about 25 seconds
TIME
left here. What's the end game for you? Do you go public? Does an
Amazon
ORG
buy you? Just quickly any thoughts? Ultimately, our goal is to go public. We are, you know, or we are stand alone building a legendary company with division of helping healthcare professionals with that lives and ambition of helping you do the best work. Well, always good to get an update from you, Doctor Iman, Abuze, co-founder, chief executive officer of incredible health, joining us on
this Tuesday
DATE
on the phone from
Austin
GPE
,
Texas
GPE
This is
Bloodberg
PERSON
.
Broadcasting live from the bloomberg interactive broker studio in
New York
GPE
Bloomberg
11 three oh
DATE
to
Washington DC
GPE
Bloomberg
PERSON
99 one
CARDINAL
to
Boston
GPE
Bloomberg
1061
DATE
to
San Francisco
GPE
Bloomberg
960
CARDINAL
to the country series
XM
PERSON
channel
119
CARDINAL
and around the globe the
Bloomberg
PERSON
business In
Bloomberg Radio
ORG
. Com. In just a moment. In the meantime, let's get back to your top business stories cuz I'm looking at toll brother It's down
about one and a half
CARDINAL
percently after
hours
TIME
. So can you tell me about it? Go ahead. Hey portal no. Well With tall brothers when I'm finished. Okay, is that fair? Yeah. Alright, into it after the bell with adjusted
EPS
ORG
for
the last quarter
DATE
that was above estimates, the stock right now has popped about four% in the late
US
GPE
session. We were talking earlier about
Nordstrom
PERSON
essentially the company has cut its revenue forecast for
the full year
DATE
and shares in
North
GPE
from right now are down
13%
PERCENT
. If you look at the E mini futures contracts now for the
American
NORP
market
S
ORG
and P
500
CARDINAL
Nasdaq 100 contracts all moving lower after
a down day
DATE
for the equity market it began with
some week
DATE
economic news sales of new homes in
July
DATE
down for
sixth
ORDINAL
time
this year
DATE
and
US
GPE
business activity in
the month of August
DATE
contracting for
a second straight month
DATE
It's also important I think to point out what we learned
two
CARDINAL
directors or at least directors from
two
CARDINAL
regional
fed
ORG
banks one being
Saint Louis
GPE
the other being
Minneapolis
GPE
they want wanted past tense a right hacked
last month
DATE
of
100
CARDINAL
His point.
Treasury
ORG
.
Last quarter
DATE
just
around 3:06%
PERCENT
. The Dow off a
half
CARDINAL
of one%
today
DATE
. S and P down
two tens
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
.
Nasdaq
ORG
comp flat. I'm done with the data check.
Carol
PERSON
can talk. Told brothers if she'd like. Go ahead. Thank you so much. Forgive me. Tell brothers by the way down about four% in the after hours
Doug Krisner
PERSON
. And I'm looking at some of it's outlook. The company talking about
fiscal year deliveries now
DATE
.
10 1000 to 10300
CARDINAL
. It had seen
11 1000
CARDINAL
to
11500
CARDINAL
. So it does look like it's raining in maybe perhaps some of the So we'll continue to track that one into the
Wednesday
DATE
trade. So much. Alright, Kelly and I and really everybody at
Bloomberg
PERSON
, we've been talking a lot about health care lately. The industry, the companies, government policies, legislative initiatives, in keeping with that this next company came to our attention.
Respiratory
ORG
is cause itself a platform biotec company with a focus on aerosol So, let's get him to explain it prank quickly. Was the CEO
COO
ORG
of the companies? He was named CEO of
Respira Technologies
ORG
just last week
DATE
. He's
about 16 years
DATE
at ultra group,
7 years
DATE
as presidency at
Altria
PERSON
's smokeless and innovative products and vapor businesses and
Brian
PERSON
joins us via
Zoom
PERSON
from
Virginia
GPE
,
Brian Myself
PERSON
how are you? I am great. Thank you for having me both. So, hey, listen. I think a good starting point is your your company and your key product. RX I'm not sure if I'm saying it correctly tell us a little bit about what you guys are doing. Sure. No, thanks again
Caroline Katie
PERSON
. So, respirate is adventure bat health technology company focused on commercials, commercializing a proprietary inhalation based, drug delivery platform to help improve patient outcome And that platform has the ability to help improve outcomes across the host of indication areas but currently, we are engaged with
FDA
ORG
cedar which is the center of
But currently we are engaged with
FDA
ORG
cedar which is the center for drug evaluation and research to be approved as the
first
ORDINAL
inhale prescription smoking cessation therapy To help the
20 1 million
QUANTITY
smokers who try to quit every year be more successful in their quit attempt. So, I need you to break that down for me a little bit more. Inhaled therapeutics for smoking cessation. So, are people inhaling nicotine for example? How does that work? Rap so when you when you talk to the smokers who are going to quit every year
almost 60%
PERCENT
of the smokers in
the United States
GPE
want to quit the number
one
CARDINAL
way they choose to quit is cold turkey but they do have some therapeutics that they can use some of the over the counter gums and patches and also some of the pres Prescription medicines as well. Help people try to mitigate their symptoms but the issue is it doesn't deliver the nicotine to the body fast enough the way that they're used to what they're cigarette This will be prescr Only. To go through a regimen where they replace smoking with using this device with a inhale and aerosol That is created by using no heat therefore there's no thermal byproducts and they're only getting pharmaceutical grade nicotine as part of their pharmaceutical drug product to help alleviate them with pearl symptoms And hopefully give him a better chance of being able to actually quit. Alright, I know
Brian
PERSON
that there's a bunch of people who are listening or watching us on
YouTube
ORG
or saying, okay, so how is this different from an E cigarette or a jewel or vaping? So, what is the difference?
100%
PERCENT
. So, the the fundamental difference is really how was the aerosol created? So, each cigarettes, you all use different versions of heat-based technologies to heat a liquid and that liquid will have nicotine and other ingredients as well And and that aerosol can then be inhale. Our device because it uses in essence and innovation off of legacy vibrating vibrating mesh nebulizer tuck
Creates
PERSON
an aerosol without the use of any heat So the fundamental differences when you heat a liquid or any cigarette although it is absolutely has fewer toxic against that a cigarette That technology would not meet
FDA
ORG
cedar standard of safety because there are still Exposure to harmful compounds whereas in our device Because it utilizes no heat you're really delivering only the pharmaceutical drug product into the one with no other harmful compounds or exposure percentage so that's the fundamental so you're saying that when we use your device if you're trying to quit smoking you're not getting any of the nicotine or anything into your body none at all. No you you are delivering the nicotine so it's delivering the nicotine but none of the other by products that are created with a legacy cigarette To create the arsenal Just some fundamental differences there but who who do you view than as your competition? Is it a jewel? I mean, really, I viewed as our competition is Everybody in the landscape who is playing in this tobacco market It's an
80 1 billion dollars
MONEY
market in the
US
GPE
Kind of our focus is
first
ORDINAL
and foremost to focus on those smokers
the 60%
PERCENT
of smokers who every year say they want to quit but ultimately fail right it is when you talk to them The burden they feel I think we've all had experiences of people we know and love who struggle with the addiction of nicotine but it is an incredibly tough task to be successful in quitting. So ultimately our goal is to bring this therapy. Have it be authorized. Have it be prescribed. Remember the care of a patient. Under the care of a doctor for the Which we believe will have significant impacts on the on the positive endpoints and helping save
millions
CARDINAL
of wives and helping people stop smoking forever. Alright, we're gonna continue this conversation. We are talking with Quickly he's the CEO of
Respira Technologies
ORG
joining us via
Zoom
PERSON
from
Virginia
GPE
we'll get back to him in just a moment in the meantime we do wanna get another update on
World of Nashville
ORG
news for you on this Who is dancing?
Knowledge is doing a sphere zoom from
Virginia
GPE
will get back to him in just a moment. In the meantime, we do wanna get another update on
World of Nashville
ORG
news for you on
this Tuesday
DATE
. Here's
Nancy NRDC
PERSON
newsroom. Hi, Nance. Thanks,
Carol
PERSON
. The
US
GPE
is warning
Americans
NORP
to leave
Ukraine
GPE
over fierce
Russia
GPE
could launch a new round of a tax against
Ukrainian
NORP
government facilities.
Ukraine
GPE
is preparing to celebrate its independence day
tomorrow
DATE
. President
Balatamire Zalinski
PERSON
says
Russia
GPE
quote, may try to do something particularly nasty. Former President
Donald Trump
PERSON
has filed a federal lawsuit seeking appointment of a neutral
third
ORDINAL
party to review materials seized by the
FBI
ORG
during a search for classified documents that is Mar a Lago Estate
Bloomberg
PERSON
Washington
GPE
Correspondent
Joe Matthew
PERSON
has more. The legal analyst we're speaking with say this may not go very far. The DOJ is likely already begun going through these documents and they have a special team of filter team or a taint team as their known that goes through and remove privilege material before prosecutors get to see it. So, this may be a stalling tactic, a delay
Tactic
LOC
but it may not really change the trajectory of this case.
Bloomberg
PERSON
,
Joe Matthew
PERSON
,
Tennessee
GPE
's former
Republican
NORP
House
ORG
Speaker
Glen Casada
PERSON
and his top aid have been arrested on federal charges Bribery kickbacks and conspiracy to commit money laundering with federal funds the
20
CARDINAL
count indictment alleges the man created a mailer company and a fake persona to receive state funds A jury has convicted
two
CARDINAL
men of conspiring to kidnap michigan governor
Gretchen Whitmer
PERSON
in
2020
DATE
and a plot that prosecutors described as a rallying cry for a US Civil War by anti government extremists It was the
second
ORDINAL
trial for
Adam Fox
PERSON
in
Barry
GPE
Croft Jr. After a jury back in
April
DATE
could not reach a unanimous verdict. Global news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and on
Bloomberg
PERSON
quick take powered by
more than 2700
CARDINAL
journalists and
More than 120
CARDINAL
countries.
Nancy Lyons
PERSON
. Alright, now thank you so much. Right now, you are listening and watching on
YouTube
ORG
,
Bloomberg
GPE
, business week with
Carol Masterlaw
PERSON
,
Katie Greifeld
PERSON
,
Katie
PERSON
and for
Tim Stanovic
PERSON
, on
this Tuesday
DATE
and you know this name,
John Door
PERSON
, his adventure capitalist, he invested early in
Google
ORG
and
Amazon
ORG
. Well, the planner perkins chairman is
tonight
TIME
's guest on
Bloomberg Wealth
PERSON
with
Rubenstein
PERSON
that airs at
10 PM Wall St
TIME
time on
Bloomberg Radio
ORG
and in this excerpt from the interview Explains how he made the wrong decision not backing
Elon Musk
PERSON
. We had the choice of Backing a brilliant card designer by the name of
Henrik Fisker
PERSON
More ambitious slightly crazy entrepreneur by the name of
Emon Musk
PERSON
contest
Rob
PERSON
removed the wrong decision But Tesla did very very well and so did electric vehicles. That of course is Clenner Perkins John Door he is
tonight
TIME
's guest on
Bloomberg Wealth
PERSON
with
David Rubenstein
PERSON
you can hear more of that interview on
Bloomberg Wealth
PERSON
tonight
TIME
at
10 PM
TIME
on
Bloomberg Radio I
ORG
mean listen
Door
ORG
has had an incredible Record to compensate maybe for missing out on Tesla and
Elon Moskey
PERSON
took early steaks and some of the world's most successful companies,
Twitter
ORG
,
Amazon
ORG
,
Google
ORG
,
Parent
GPE
,
Alphabet
GPE
, more recently, his invested and start up such as the delivery service store dash, software company into it, which Talked about reported earnings and has been rallying in
the after hours
TIME
and health tech firm lumerous. Absolutely I you know I think about the early days of
two
CARDINAL
with
Kathy Wood
PERSON
and backing shoes out there front center when it comes to
Elan Musk
PERSON
and Tesla when a lot of people were running in Other direction. So, it's kind of interesting to see how that has played out. He did mention into it which we did mention, did reported turnings after the closing bell and his continuing to trade higher
Katie
PERSON
. It's up
about four
CARDINAL
percently after
hours
TIME
. Yeah, pretty dramatic move And contrast that with what we heard from
Nordstrom Tale
LOC
to earnings who once again. Alright, we'll check out
Cliner Perkins John Door
PERSON
tonight
TIME
at
10
CARDINAL
on
Bloomberg Radio
ORG
with
David Rubenstein
PERSON
upload wealth. This is
Bloomberg Radio
ORG
Markets, headlines, and breaking news
24 hours
TIME
a day@Bloomberg. Com,
the Bloomberg Business app
ORG
. Let's begin with some of the news after the bell toll brothers earnings for
the last quarter
DATE
beat estimates however the company has cut it's delivery guidance for
the full year
DATE
right now shares in toll are down by
about two
CARDINAL
. Seven% we also heard from into it after the bell the companies adjusted
EPS
ORG
for
the last quarter
DATE
And shares right now higher by
nearly four
CARDINAL
. Four% big disappointment for
Nordstrom
PERSON
the company cut revenue forecast for
the full year
DATE
Nordstrom
ORG
shares down by
nearly 13%
PERCENT
in the late
US
GPE
section
Big disappointment for
Nordstrom
PERSON
the company cut revenue forecast for
the full year
DATE
Nordstrom
ORG
shares down by
nearly 13%
PERCENT
in the late
US
GPE
session very light volume in the regular session summertime trading equity market finished mixed
Nasdaq Energy
ORG
one of the bright spots energy prices or shares I should say tracking the price of crude oil higher
Saudi Arabia's
GPE
oil minister recently raised the possibility of reducing production as a way Balancing the crude oil market WTI in the extended session right now up by
about three
CARDINAL
.
Eight%
ORG
were trading Just around 9385
10 year
DATE
treasury
ORG
up
nearly four
CARDINAL
basis points in yield given some little concern about the aggressive nature of the
fed
ORG
in tightening even in the midst of week economic news we were last quoted on the tenure and yield terms at
305%
PERCENT
.
Bloomberg
PERSON
business flag. So now, you wanna do
12
CARDINAL
brothers, huh I did now only because Read me to it And to be honest I wasn't up to speed on it now I am in a better position you like that transparency hold disclosure you are the most earnest we just one of the many reasons we love you
Doug Kristener
PERSON
Alright Doug
PERSON
thank you so much
Carol
PRODUCT
Master Katie Greifield we are live in the interactive broker studio here at
Bloomberg
GPE
headquarters in
New York City
GPE
wanna get back to our guest cuz
Katie
PERSON
and I have been talking with
Brian Quigley
PERSON
he is the CEO of Hey Sarah Via Zoom from
Virginia
GPE
hey
Brian
PERSON
what are the things I'm curious about and you mentioned that you've applied the company for
FDA
ORG
approval to be
Inhale
ORG
I'm not gonna say it correct inhale therapeutics for smoking cessation if you don't get the
FDA
ORG
approval is there still a company Absolutely there is. I mean, there are there are host of all those other in health therapies that are device technology can help deliver improve patient outcomes. There are
over 90
CARDINAL
therapies
today
DATE
that are approved for delivery through a legacy vibrating Which has occupation compliance due to the lack of patient maintenance and cleaning of their devices. So, there's a there's AA huge opportunity in the already approved therapeutic space but also working with companies who are developing new therapy To be delivered to a patient via route of inhalation just as a just as a beginning. And let's talk about growth. Have you raised money at this point or is that something you're exploring? We have raised capital actually in in
2022
DATE
in this very challenging environment where very close to closing out our a round and will be announcing that in the next you know
30 to 45 days
DATE
and and that funding would be able to secure Help the company achieve its next milestone which is it's I and D meeting with the
FDA
ORG
and our phase
one
CARDINAL
human clinical study. So what's kind of the role that what's the timeline here? I'm just thinking
Audience
PERSON
who's listing in on this cuz it does sound like there's a lot of potential but I am curious about the timeline. Yeah and you know the the new the new drug approval process is not for the Phantom Heart but you know in our case you know working with
FDA
ORG
you know this is something that we know is a high priority for them we know they're gonna hold us to task and we're gonna be science based so we're generating the data to to move through the process but ultimately we'll In our phase
one
CARDINAL
human clinicals
next year
DATE
which will lead to a phase
two
CARDINAL
and three in our goals to be authorized in
2025
DATE
. I do wanna switch gears a little bit and talk about cannabis because I see in your bio that you've been inactive investor in both the cannabis and alcohol Is you sit on the board of Musgrove biologics and bell aisle craft It's obviously
FDI
ORG
when you think about regulation for cannabis at the federal level it's been really stop and start it feels like a sort of white whale of sorts just very curious to hear your views on that industry Yeah I mean here the cameras industry it's I think it's it's been through a lot of challenges you know at this stage you know I don't know much but I do know one thing that
Legalization
ORG
or descheduling eventually does.
I think it's it's been through a lot of challenges. You know, at this stage, you know, I don't know much but I do know one thing that When legalization or descheduling eventually does occur the one thing that's gonna happen a day before that is
FDA
ORG
will regulate cannabis whether it be from medicinal very regulate from medicinal products but for consumer products as well Clarity and consistency from a label and quality perspective you know and and I think that you know technology is like ours that don't use heat in an
FDA Environment
ORG
, have the potential to, you know, even look at delivery of of cannabinoids for medicinal purposes or an
FDA
ORG
regulated contact Well that's what I'm trying to understand
Brian
PERSON
like ultimately how do you see this business playing out if you go to
the Bloomberg Terminal
ORG
we have a DES page and often we have a revenue you know breakdown for any particular company about kind of Where, you know, the revenue breakdown. Where we're seeing the most sales within a particular companies business and I am curious, is it smoking cessation? Is it actually, you know, helping maybe with people who have various, you know, illnesses where they need pharmaceuticals, kind of your plain vanilla pharmaceuticals
Fed
ORG
to them. Is it the cannabis industry? Is it where do you see it breaking out You know I think the I think I see the the nicotine replacement therapy side of our business being AAAA huge driver of the revenue to see the size of the market there the the number of people who continue to smoke cigarettes and who are dicted and who are looking for solutions is is going to be the driver
Avenue
ORG
. I believe for the
first
ORDINAL
, you know,
5 years
DATE
and because We have IP on our liquid drug product that contains nicotine We will be able to reap the full financial benefits of that whereas in the other and health therapy spaces you know there that will really be through partnership with companies who have been working to identify develop and new new molecules or or new therapies so I I really do think that for You know 5 years is going to be the key driver of a revenue but I also think that we we see there's opportunity for for us to be a blockbuster drug once we get authorized you know what do we ask for leaders of all types of in And companies. I mean, are you giving supply chain problems in terms of building your product out? What are the restraints and are you at all nervous about a slow down that for something that's kind of something in the future might that be For you. Yeah I I think all businesses are having to deal with supply chain challenges you know in our case because really you know the device itself really is an electronic device so you know luckily text me There are few chips in there, batteries, and but luckily, you know, we work with JB and
Rick
PERSON
and Radius there, innovation arm, who is our med device contract manufacturing arm and they help us manage supply chain. So, you know, I think with anything with proper planning, it can be managed. You know, at an RKS because you know, we Very methodical plan we have to execute
FDA
ORG
we're able to manage managing the supply chain risks pretty effectively And
just about 30 seconds
TIME
you are a clinical stage company walk us through
the next several years
DATE
for your business you What are
the next 4 or 5 years
DATE
look like for respiratory in
about 30 seconds
TIME
The next 4 or 5 years
DATE
are are continue to engage with
FDA
ORG
and execute our clinical studies to get the NRT NRT authorized and in that process be engaging with the pharmaceutical companies for partnerships to not only scale that but also scale new therapeutics. Alright, can you leave it on that note?
Brian
PERSON
, thank you so Look forward to hearing more in the future
Brian Quigley
PERSON
he's a chief executive officer of
Respira Technologies
ORG
joining us via
Zoom
PERSON
from
Virginia
GPE
alright that's gonna do it for the
Tuesday
DATE
edition of
Bloomberg Business Continue
ORG
to watch some stocks on the move in
the after hours and two
TIME
it is up about five% following earnings toll brothers is down about three% following earnings in
Nordstrom Katie
PERSON
is down
almost 13%
PERCENT
out Earning season continues to give and to take and it's been really interesting to follow. Alright, everybody. Have a safe and good
evening
TIME
. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
.
13%
PERCENT
out It's been really interesting to follow. Alright, everybody. Have a safe and good
evening
TIME
. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Hey From the heart of where innovation money and power collide. Former head of security has come forward alleging there are egregious deficiencies quote unquote and how the company handles personal data and doesn't even know how many bots there are
US
GPE
lawmakers have vowed to invest How this plays into the
44 1 billion dollars
MONEY
lawsuit. Pause zooms transition from an essential pandemic toll to an enterprise business juggernaut might take Than expected. The company reported the lowest sales game and it's history zoom
CFO
ORG
joins us
this hour
TIME
. Hey.
Might take longer than expected the company reported the lowest sales game and it's history zoom
CFO
ORG
joins us
this hour
TIME
. And matter learned about the
FDC
ORG
's lawsuit over its within VR acquisition via a tweet. Could this be the new norm under chair? We will get to all of that in a moment but
first
ORDINAL
the
third
ORDINAL
down day for the markets in a row
Bloomberg
PERSON
's
Katie Greifeld
PERSON
with us now
Katie
PERSON
walk us through
the day third down day
DATE
but it was a pretty mixed bag overall if you look at the big benchmark to the S and P 500 the Nasak
100
CARDINAL
falling slightly just
a few tenths
CARDINAL
of percent then you look at the
Philad
PERSON
Semi conductor index the socks really the big outperformer
today
DATE
up
seven tenths of a percent
CARDINAL
but that was really just a bright spot and what was the sea of red you look at some of the Corners of the market. We have the arc innovation ETF up there down
about half a percent
PERCENT
. So, as we sort of just wait for the big news at
the end of the week
DATE
, of course, the federal reserve
Jackson
PERSON
whole summit,
Silva
GPE
few days to go. Let's look though at the meme stock craze check in on that craze but in a different way now, you can see bed bath Over
the past 4 days
DATE
again we think about where we were this time
last week
DATE
it was a much different story but That seems to be a thing of the past just for now again if you think about what we're seeing in bed bath and beyond shares but broadening out to Fundamental stories. If you look at some of the other big movers in the market, somehow, it's still earning season. We heard from
J. D. Com
PERSON
earlier.
Today
DATE
was a beat and a race quarter. Sort of quieting some of the fears that we've been having about the
Chinese
NORP
slowdown when we think about What we saw at
Ali Barber JD
PERSON
. Com shares up over
three%
GPE
we also
Yesterday
DATE
again really strong billings numbers that was reflected in shares
today
DATE
's soaring by
more than 12%
PERCENT
Twitter though this is where all the drama was today You walked us through that whistleblower emerging perhaps a win for
Elon Mosque
ORG
of course mosques lawyers have already issued a subpoena requesting that whistleblower. Drama indeed
Katie
PERSON
thank you we're gonna talk more about that right now
Twitter
PERSON
's former head of security blowing the whistle His name is
Peter Zatko
PERSON
. He's filed an official complaint alleging egregious deficiencies in the way the platform
Twitter
PERSON
refuting the claims calling them opportunistic how could this change
Elon Musk's
PERSON
attempt to get out of that
Four 1 billion dollars
MONEY
deal Here to discuss
Bloomberg
PERSON
's
Jeff Feli
PERSON
who covers the court Who covers
Twitter
PERSON
so
Kurt
PERSON
who is
Peter Zachko
PERSON
and what has he claimed yeah this is someone Incredibly well respected in the security industry. He came to
Twitter
PERSON
in
late 2020
DATE
, you may remember Emily that in
the summer of that year
DATE
, there was a Breach of the company a bunch of very high profile accounts were hacked by a teenager and
Jack Dorsey
PERSON
then the CEO you know made a big plan to bring someone in with some real kind of reputation and and stock in the industry and so his you know goes by mudge his nickname and he was there Until
early this year 2022
DATE
when he was actually fired or dismissed by CEO Prague Agarwal. So, very recently in the building at
Twitter
PRODUCT
. So, he was there very recently. Twitter responding to his claim saying, this is from the the CEO. I believe you obtain this They're reviewing the claims but what they've seen so far is a false narrative. Right. Riddled with inconsistencies and inaccurate inaccuracies and Give us more details on what he is claiming I mean he's he's essentially saying that the company has not taken the appropriate steps to protect user data You've seen that they haven't taken appropriate steps to update, you know, basic software on their data servers, right? And the big thing and this is the thing that, you know, you're on musk Is jumping on is that he says well the company doesn't actually know how many bots it has on the platform right it's a little bit more nuanced than that we can get into that but generally you know when you hear that in your
Elon Musk
PERSON
your ears perk up because this is what you have been arguing all along is that the company doesn't Essentially reaffirming what
Elon
ORG
's been saying. So, How could this potentially
Senior executive who reported to the CEO essentially reaffirming what
Elon
ORG
's been saying. So
Jeff Musk
PERSON
floors have already said we wanna talk to this guy. How could this potential What's gonna happen in this hearing? Well,
first
ORDINAL
and foremost, let's let's stop for a
second
ORDINAL
and say that it's way too early to know whether this guy's got the goods or not. You know people are gonna have to dig in and see Whether there's meat on the bone for these allegations Now
tomorrow
DATE
is not about the the this guy it's about That the most people have made that the
Twitter
PERSON
folks are hiding Witnesses were specific knowledge of the spam and the body counts and they're offering up you know executives and directors who don't have Judge is gonna decide whether or not
Twitter
PERSON
has to make you know The people with the goods available So
Kurt
PERSON
I know you've been talking to a lot of sources. There's been some reaction from within the company. What are people Yeah I mean there's a number of current employees you can imagine aren't very thrilled right to see someone who is so recently on the staff level at the company now coming forward and making these accusations there's been a lot of speculation as to the timing right I mean we are right in the middle of this very content Deal and suddenly this feels like a huge wrapped gift for you on musk. So, there has been speculation there as well but you know, ultimately, this just adds even more kind of chaos and confusion to what's already been a very uncertain time at a company like this. Just, how often does it happen that, you know, someone comes forward, claiming to have, you know, You know at the perfect time in a high profile business case like this. Acorn for senius So, it's not unusual to have whistleblowers emerge when there's publicity about these big M and A fights. And it's just, you know, everything has been, you know, drama central in this case. So, it's not a bit surprising That we've had So why don't we what are you watching for what happens next? Well again we have this hearing
tomorrow
DATE
Which will decide whether or not he gets more access to the bot stuff Forward we're basically keeping an eye on the process of gathering ammunition both sides are gathering ammunition to make their case And we're hurdling toward
October 17
DATE
. The huge, you know, In Wilmington Delaware You are gonna be very busy that day my friend along with our own
Kurt Wagner
PERSON
thank you both Thank you both obviously you'll keep us posted on
Drama
GPE
.
HBO
ORG
gets a huge win with house of the dragon just how good an omen is this for streamers we'll discuss This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
.
The Game of Thrones fan club was in the house
sunday
DATE
for house of the dragon the premiere
June 9
DATE
.
9 million
CARDINAL
viewers on television and online making it the best ever
Series
EVENT
debut in
HBO
ORG
history. It's Between
HBO
ORG
and
Amazon
ORG
which is about to debut it's Ring's been off. The rings of power. Joining me now at
Greenfield
PERSON
partner. Partner. So, how's the dragon? What did you think I mean, this is sort of, this is what
HBO
ORG
does best. I mean, Super expensive.
Tens of millions of dollars
MONEY
in episode. But this is the bread and butter of
HBO
ORG
and I think that the big question for investors is gonna be how does this evolve over the course of
the next 12 months
DATE
As you know, Emily,
Discovery
PRODUCT
Plus is gonna basically be you know mashed together with
HBO
ORG
Max
PERSON
probably still called
HBO Max
ORG
and we're gonna see sort of how those
two
CARDINAL
brands come together into one service When you look at something like house of of the dragon this is this is everything at
HBO
ORG
is known for over
the last 20 years
DATE
you know incredibly well produced high and premium content Well, we're already seeing some of those growing pains as this you know, discovery tries to These
two
CARDINAL
cultures what's your Expectations about how it's all gonna play out. I've been looking you've got a company you know the reality is for discovery. This was a say, right? I mean, discovery we did not have a future as a standalone company. They were gonna be in deep trouble, just being in the cable network world. Especially in the non-fiction sort of that world was not going to look pretty over the course of
the next 5 to 10 years
DATE
. And I don't think anyone really Really unique opportunity for sort of a kick save for
John Malone
PERSON
and
David Zaz
PERSON
left the sort of wined up being in control of
one
CARDINAL
of the world's largest media companies the negative is they have Strategically but I think the question is gonna be this is an incredible group of assets and how much of their Building for the future. There's no doubt in my mind that the future of television is gonna be streamed, right? Like
linear TV
ORG
is dying and so, how does
one
CARDINAL
immediate which still has a tremendous amount of cable network, you know, broadcast, cable network assets? How do they transform that into the And can they do it with that much debt load obviously you're seeing a lot of investors who are skeptical of their prospects so far? Does the successive house of the dragon boat well for
Amazon
ORG
's Lord of the
Rings
ORG
project and all the money and time that they spent on it? Well, I think it's it's funny that you bring up Lord of the Rings because it's actually a great example of the different strategy that you're now
That they spent on it. What? Well, I think it's it's funny that you bring up Lord of the Rings because it's actually a great example
Warner Brothers
ORG
discovery I should say versus the old management team because if you go today Emily or if any of the viewers who are watching this Turn on
amazon
ORG
's you know prime video they can actually watch all of the original order of the rings now you'd say the original order of the rings those are
Warner Brothers
ORG
those should be on HBO
Max
PERSON
and they're on HBO
Max
PERSON
but they're now also on
Amazon
ORG
's prime video so you see this culture now that's Changing inside of
Warner Media
LOC
where instead of making it the exclusive home of content they're really going back to more of a licensing model where sure it's on
HBO
ORG
match but now you can also get it on To generate profits versus the only sort of north star Streaming meeting
HBO
ORG
Max HBO Max
PERSON
is no longer the sole focus of
one
CARDINAL
brother's discovery they're looking to make money anyway possible including licensing the
third
ORDINAL
parties like
Amazon
ORG
We're also seeing the streamers make more moves into sports news
today
DATE
that
Amazon
ORG
is gonna show it's
Thursday
DATE
night
TIME
football and bars and And you know you talked about you know for the
first
ORDINAL
time ever they're being more viewers on streaming than on cable is sports really the only way to take these streamers to Next level to that next generation or chapter of growth Oh, sports is a great way to get people to come in, right? If you have champions league, which is what
Paramount
ORG
Plus just acquired, it's the only way you can watch
Champions League
ORG
as you Peacock
Yo
PERSON
if you you know each of these platforms is buying exclusive sports rights now that the negative is obviously you can't you don't own these you don't own the content. You have to keep fighting every
357
CARDINAL
, whatever
the years
DATE
are. You have to keep fighting for this content cuz you don't own it the way you own a piece of content your Netf Own stranger things forever like it's not disappearing. They don't have to go rebid for those rights in
3 years
DATE
. So, sports is a really a double edge sword but I think what's interesting Emily is it's the last thing that's been holding the bundle together Traditional television that anyone cares about. The only thing that's sort of holding the sport or the traditional multi-channel video bundle together has been sports and
Seven
CARDINAL
eight% now port cutting is becoming a real problem for all of these legacy media companies because they move so much great content including
Tech
ORG
companies are coming in and bidding on these sports rights. You know, we think the big next thing you're gonna see in
the next 4 weeks
DATE
, we believe apples gonna buy
Sunday
DATE
ticket which has been on
Direct TV
ORG
For
years
DATE
we think that moves over to
Apple
ORG
and so you're seeing real massive seismic change that is gonna have big problems for anybody in the cable network business in
2023
DATE
. Now I know you're a prolific
Twitter
PRODUCT
and we were speaking earlier about this whistleblower that's come forward that Potentially give
Elon Mosque
ORG
an edge in this battle royale to get out of that
44 1 billion dollars
MONEY
deal to buy
Twitter
PERSON
what's your take? You know it comes down to essentially
one
CARDINAL
fundamental issue Is
Falseified
ORG
. Public farms because the deal that a one must agreed to. Didn't talk about bots or the percentage of bots or any of that. It basically just relied on the validity of
Twitter
PERSON
's public violence and if you read
Twitter
PERSON
's public filings, it says, you know, we make a lot of assumptions in how we look at the bot number. We think it's under five% but we could be wrong. If
Twitter
PERSON
knowingly knew the number was far larger than five% and everyone of
Twitter
PERSON
's filings was essentially fragile because they were basically filing fraudulent documents.
Essentially fragile because they were basically filing fraudulent documents with the
SN
ORG
Sort of the entire management team at
Twitter
PERSON
has willfully for
years
DATE
been filing false
SEC
ORG
documents It's obviously possible. I think it's unlikely unless those documents unless those filings with the SCC are knowingly false.
Twitter
ORG
has already said they could have madden mistakes and how they did this it's This is not an exact science. If that's the case,
Elon
ORG
will be paying
54 20
DATE
. Right and to be clear we're talking about the number of bots that advertisers that that that actually see advertising that are counted at MAUs not the number of bots overall that's what They're referring to with that five% less than five% number Correct it's there are certainly good bots that are part of
Twitter
PERSON
that you actually would want there but in terms of sort of the the spammy part that shouldn't be counted as actually you know monetizable dia uses
Twitter
PRODUCT
calls and
MDA
ORG
uses actually the term
Twitter
PRODUCT
uses They have said repeatedly that the percentage of bots on a
quarterly
DATE
basis is sub five% based on their analysis but that analysis could be flawed. You would have to believe that they knowingly knew me they actually knew the number was north of five% That's the only way musk gets out of paying
54 20
DATE
. Right, right, okay,
Rich Greenfield
PERSON
,
Leichhand Partners
ORG
. Thanks for asking to have you here,
Rich
PERSON
, thank you Coming up zooms We're gonna talk about that.
Zoom
PERSON
was the pandemic golden child but that transition from an essential COVID era tool to an enterpri Business platform may not happen as quickly as some expected. Let's talk about all that and more with
Zoom CFO
ORG
,
Kelly Steckelberg
PERSON
, here,
Kelly
PERSON
, great to have you back with us. So, let's talk about the good news in the last good news.
As some expected let's talk about all that and more with Zoom CFO
Kelly Steckelberg
PERSON
here
Kelly
PERSON
great to have you back with us so let's talk about the good news in the last good news obviously you're seeing growth from enterprise customers but you're Consumers and small businesses. Let's start there. How and where do you expect that to stabilize? So, great to see you, Emily. Thank you. As you mentioned, we're really pleased with the performance in the enterprise which grew
27
CARDINAL
year% over year. We can talk about zoom phone in the very strong performance there. But in our online segment of the As you mentioned, there were certainly we're some headwinds. A lot of it due to strengthen the dollar as well as impact that we're seeing from the war in
Europe
LOC
but also just slower acqui Customers at the top of the funnel which is having impact is people are moving around the world again and going out to happy hour with their friends rather than doing that over
Zoom
PERSON
. And slowing sales growth among corporate customers is that a sign of slowing corporate demand is that because of the macroeconomic So, we had
a very strong quarter
DATE
from an enterprise perspective. Our overall bookings came in stronger than we expected and revenue at
27%
PERCENT
. Now, we are starting to see our enterprise sales cycles moving towards more normalized enterprise cycles which Little bit more back end loaded in
the quarter
DATE
that led to higher than expected deferred revenue though just a little bit less contribution to revenue in
the quarter
DATE
itself. Zoom phone was very strong performance. We crossed over that
four 1 million
QUANTITY
seat mark in
August
DATE
. We're excited to talk about we had
two
CARDINAL
record deals with seat size of greater than 125 1000 we're seeing strength in some of our new products including
Zoom
PRODUCT
contact center and Zoom IQ for sales. Bigger picture there's this narrative that the pendulum is swinging back to the office
Apple
ORG
calling workers back to the office
next month
DATE
employees are pushing back yes But you know, this is still the policy. At least as of now, I know
Zoom
PERSON
did its own survey on hybrid work. You found that executive still want that hybrid work How are you adding all of this up and trying to figure out how this will translate into demand So the great thing about
Zoom
PERSON
technology is it enables work both at home and in the office and they're both really important. So, we see organizations recognizing that they need to maintain their
Zoom
PERSON
licenses for their employees that are working at home but also our technology like
Zoom Smart
PERSON
gallery, workplace reservations, allow them to then interact with those employees that are in the office in a very inclusive way and so having the right technology in your conference room is becoming more and more important every single day. We've all come used to seeing everybody's face on a square and so Gallery enables that even if you're the one like me who I've moved out of the state of
California
GPE
sitting in
Texas
GPE
sees everybody that's in that room and feels really included in that conversation and so we're excited about the prospects of To work and
Zoom
PERSON
technology is there to support it. So,
just about 30 seconds
TIME
left,
Kelly
PERSON
, what is
the next year
DATE
of growth look like to you? Where does most of that grow Come from quickly. Certainly it's gonna come from our enterprise segment and we're also focused on lots of new initiatives in the online segment that will drive at
first
ORDINAL
to being black but eventually a growth driver as well
Alright Kelly
ORG
Stuckleberg CFO of Zoom always good to have you here
Kelly
PERSON
thank you for stop Coming up. The
FTC
ORG
is breaking with tradition, letting companies learn about lawsuits, the hard way without any notice that Take a look at the cyber security landscape with power auto networks and catch a This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
.
Welcome back to
Bloomer Technology
ORG
. I'm Emily Changing
San Francisco
GPE
. The
FTC
ORG
is breaking with tradition and it's clamped down on big tech. Has it learned that
the federal trade commission
ORG
was suing the company over its within the virtual reality acquisition via a tweet? The
FTC
ORG
typically gives companies a chance to meet with commissioners and argue their case before filing a lawsuit here to explain what happened are very own
Alex Barenca
PERSON
what happened indeed
Alex
PERSON
? Apparently found out from this tweet that the
FTC
ORG
was suing them in kind of an unusual case that I'm sure we can kind of talk about in a
second
ORDINAL
. Basically, we typically happens in these situations as a video's large enough. They have to file documents to the
FTC
ORG
which are sources told us they did
Hundreds
CARDINAL
of documents and data points and then if a suit is imminent usually there are depositions before that happens. No depositions happen in this case. And the company was alerted to this via tweet. I will say the
FTC
ORG
. Initially didn't comment on this story. They did get back to
Today
DATE
saying that they follow typical practice by notifying the company after the fact that being said our sources say this was unusual to not have any incling that they would be
Follow typical practice by notifying the company after the fact that being said our sources say this was unusual to not have any inkling that they would be coming for them to sue to block this virtual reality deal. What is the signal about
Chairperson Con
PERSON
is
AA Biden
PERSON
appointee who was Brought into the agency that is meant to enforce anti-trust laws and she's taken a pretty aggressive approach. This suit in and of itself Basically means that they are suing to block this deal on the future Supernatural can actually tamp down competition because it doesn't give And
the Democra Commissioners
ORG
on the
FTC
ORG
against big tech companies I spoke with Congressman
David Sicilini
PERSON
And asked him about Lena Con and her approach and this lawsuit in particular some critics have said this is such a small company wise the
FTC
ORG
bothering bothering with this of course
Said
PERSON
the deal would increase Take a listen to what representative
Sicilini
PERSON
had to say I don't think we can take any representation made by Meadow or Facebook or
Mark Zuckerberg
PERSON
seriously time and time again they've been found to be engaging an anti-competitive behaviors He went on to argue how much meta and Facebook in particular are anticompetitive and how supportive he is of
Lena Khan's
PERSON
You know, of course, that's just
one
CARDINAL
lawmaker but what do we know about the support that
Lena Con
PERSON
has in
congress
ORG
to continue? Yeah, you're out. You'll remember the house came out with a
2020
DATE
report. Basically pointing out that
Meta
ORG
alone had acquired
more than 100
CARDINAL
smaller companies in the
decades
DATE
prior and this within case is Only time the
FTC
ORG
has actually sued preemptively to stop one of those deals for folks like
Sicily
LOC
know they might be looking at things like the ongoing back and forth that Regarding the
Instagram
NORP
and
WhatsApp
ORG
acquisitions that issue is also with the
FDC
ORG
from
Lena Cohn's
GPE
predecessor so I I think that folks on who take that kind Approach that that he was talking through there think that the
FTC
ORG
perhaps hasn't done enough on the anti-trust side to make sure that these giant tech companies aren't basically hoovering up
One
CARDINAL
out there to either camp down or assure that they have what they said in in this lawsuit is a monopoly on a potential future market
Alright Alex Barenka
ORG
thank you for your reporting on this of course we'll continue to follow Now moving on to the world of cyber security shares of
Palo Alto Network's
ORG
sword
as much as 12%
PERCENT
Tuesday
DATE
after the network security company reported Portal By
at least 25%
PERCENT
in
fiscal year 2023
DATE
but can the cyber security landscape will the cyber landscape sustain it's growth Great to have you back with us as always. So, look, very positive earnings report. A beat, good forecast, you seem to be bucking the trend because we've heard a lot of bad news from other tech companies. But Seeing noise. We're not seeing a signal out there telling us that There is impending doom like we see inflation, we see macro economic trends.
2 years ago
DATE
with a pandemic, people thought that that the floor was gonna fall away from under arrest. All the way to $oh. Revenue is vanished for companies So I don't think this one is as bad as that when it was
2 years ago
DATE
. Do you expect a man to keep up though or
Received a power through. So, I don't think this one is as bad as that when it was
2 years ago
DATE
. Do you expect a man to keep up though or could companies tighten their belts over
the next A few quarters
DATE
and could that impact how much software in cyber security services they want to buy. You know, it was interesting. I've been talking to investors
all day
DATE
and a whole bunch of market commentators about our stock and what we see in the market and the pandemic said about a series of transformations and technology because companies saw that there are wanting in many areas. They're e-commer
Infrastructure
ORG
was not after snuff which they had to upgrade because they're trying to sell everything on the web. Customer in direction mechanisms were not in place because every customer wanted to interact with them This is only because they don't wanna touch people or see people anymore. So, a lot of technology, transformation, projects started in the midst of the pandemic. Even a whole bunch of the clouds transformation. So, and hybrid work. So, if you add all that up, the unleashed to series of technology transformations and couple that would be tremendous amount of Overactively seen on the awareness of that. So, we're seeing a deal when for security which is I think more secular and might get dented on the margin but I think it's still one of the safest and strong Access to be in. Overall, how would you describe the threat landscape right now? Obviously, there is this ongoing war on
Ukraine
GPE
but the potential, you know, huge cyber apocalypse that you know, somewhere warning about with that hasn't Materialize there's ongoing tension with
China
GPE
of course How do you how do you see these global factors impacting the threats Oh I think if you're still back and look at it you know everyone of our companies has become digital it's and every time you have digitally enabled businesses do you open the door for people to be able to enter Suddenly a tax service will be called it's Every employee's home is a potential attack factor. Everybody laptop is every every interaction that you have with your customers digitally is a potential way of you getting hacked and we've seen that. We've Ran somewhere spare.
Every 4 hours
TIME
there's a On some website somewhere so clearly this is not just a nation state threat it also is an economic opportunity for small You know hackers or hacker groups just build consortium to start making sort of making these economic demands on a bunch of We're also we're perspective. So you're seeing the threat landscape get more sort of adverse. At the same time in a nation states are looking at preparedness because of the Ukraine Am I ready to stand in attack? We haven't seen a cyber security applics because we've actually had real lives lost and devastation caused in
Ukraine
GPE
. However, do not underestimate the amount of cyber Trying to bring the
UK
GPE
in websites down and you know Tremendous amount of cyber activity the activity we haven't seen before. There's a new whistleblower in social media and I'm just dying to get your thoughts on this. This former employee of
Twitter
PRODUCT
, former head of security there claiming negligent
Policies
PERSON
. There even are you know there's been some pushback You know the sounds like something that could be happening A lot of companies Take photo Know the particulars of the situation at
Twitter
PERSON
I read about it probably just as recently as you did I don't know what's happening there I will say that one of the things we've been canvassing for and hoping for is more screwed
Indian
NORP
more awareness at boards about the threats of cyber security I think cyber Is the biggest business continued risk in
the 21st century
DATE
and I don't think boards are well prepared to understand the magnitude understand the impact that can be had and really to be able to assess whether they're individual company is up to snuff So I think it's it's a need of the hour I think the SCC is looking at various mechanisms to be able to create sort of regulation around how people have to disclose cyber activity and cyber readiness just the way we do In audit committees and finances that are Well, there's also this quote number that we've been hearing over again.
Cyber activity We do in order to finance etcetera Well, there's also this quote number that we've been hearing over and over again,
600 1000
CARDINAL
Responsibility of boards but you know is it is it Who should be stepping in here to help fill these jobs? Is it comfortable? So I'm glad if it's
600 1000
CARDINAL
It's a lot. We need to make sure that Cyber security enthusiasts or professionals I think the fundamental problem is we have not applied ample automation and security Which requires a bunch of clean data requires a bunch of integration of brand-
four
CARDINAL
platformization for cyber security which is what we're trying to do in a whole bunch of others are I think the only way we sold this security If he can build a eye that actually stops these attacks whilst they're happening. The
today
DATE
is model is not gonna work.
Today
DATE
's model is something happens. We collect all the data and large data lakes. Let me have people go attack them. Look at them to see Requires a lot more automation. We think we You also need more cyber security Hm now so curious for your thoughts on this last one here you of course were massiochi son's number
two
CARDINAL
long before he launched the vision fund now we know he's lost
tens of billions of dollars
MONEY
on some of these tech investment What do you make of this and what do you think the legacy of massa in softbank will be in spite of this? Oh you know
Mar
PERSON
says a resilient individual. He's been through this before. He went from boom to bus to the last internet
Boston
GPE
. He got a reinvented himself and the one thing I loved about him is that he has immense appetite for us. And his appetite Risk and his ability to forget his failures is what all of
Silicon Valley
LOC
teaches us. So hopefully he can recover from that and go build it back himself. I think last time was down to a
one 1 billion dollars
MONEY
. I think he's a lot more this time than last time. So I have faith in his ability to resurrect But yes I do think he got a bunch of companies at the wrong end. Alright Nakara CEO of
Palato Network
ORG
it's good to have you back
Nick Cash
PERSON
thank you for stopping by Alright coming up how the crypto
winter
DATE
coupled with an energy crunch is impacting bitcoin mining more on that This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Sorry.
Time now for our crypto report and the usually volatile
Bitcoin
PERSON
has gotten stuck trading within a narrow range ahead of the
Annual
DATE
Jackson Hall
FAC
meeting
later this week
DATE
covering around $
21600
DATE
Mike Alford
ORG
board member of the
Bitcoin
ORG
minor
iris
PERSON
energy and the crypto focused investment firm
Eaglebrook
FAC
advisors talk to Kaylee lines on the
Bloombrook
ORG
crypto share Earlier to talk about the markets impact on
Bitcoin
PERSON
mining. I certainly been a difficult time and I was with a bunch of the minors in
Miami
GPE
about a month ago
DATE
now and you know the the mood's a little darker bit the bitcoin price being under
20 1000
CARDINAL
obviously is in good for anyone because profitability tends to flip negative for a lot of the Minors around those levels. You know, the cost of machines has gone down though. So, if you're a buyer of machines here, you know, you're getting a much better price than you were
a year ago
DATE
. And energy prices while they're going up, they could certainly you know, be held down a little bit by by macro, uncertainty, at least in the
US
GPE
, where they're sort of an over supply. Of energy. So, I actually believe just On the hash ribbons which is a metric that looks at the 30 day moving average of the global hash rate. A relative to
the 60 day
DATE
. It just flipped positive. Again in
the last week
DATE
right after being negative since sort of some point during
July
DATE
. I actually think that capitulation phase Over the reminders that were literally buying Bitcoin at
40 1000
CARDINAL
then they puked that Bitcoin back into the market at
20
CARDINAL
. I think that speaks to, you know, the general strategy that people should have around their balance sheet. Here, I think there's
two
CARDINAL
strategies that's where to work well.
One
CARDINAL
is just selling your Bitcoin
every day
DATE
. The way
IRS
ORG
energy does and and that way you can grow just Strategically and not taking on too much debt and then growing at a reasonable speed so that you don't get caught at the wrong part of the cycle flat footed. We think that in
mid September the May
DATE
finally happen
Ethereum
ORG
will move from proof of work to proof of steak how does Coming merge affect your review How you wanna be investing in in these kinds of companies? Well I think the the Bitcoin only you know minors are always gonna be a good bet because if you believe in a decentralized a truly decentralized monetary system it will not function properly under approve a model so as much as
Ethereum
ORG
could be an interesting currency for doing an
FTs
NORP
or Right doing D fire whatever it's not going to be the same thing that
Bitcoin
PERSON
is if if it moves off approval work and so I don't think it changes anything with the thesis like if if people wanna On
NFT
ORG
's right that that doesn't bother me one bit on my free market capitalist but if you wanna own a truly hard asset with a supply cap that cannot be disrupted that cannot be sort of taken over by any
one
CARDINAL
party you
kinda
PERSON
need to stick with proof of work and therefore I think
Bickman
PERSON
mining at least again in
North America
LOC
has a great future. My girlfriend there
Iris
PERSON
energy in
Eaglebrook
FAC
advisors with
Kaylee Lyons
PERSON
. Coming up. What is quiet, quit it? The concept getting a lot of attention among young workers trying to change office norms. Discuss. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
.
Workers are fighting executives pushing for a fall and even part time return to the office the latest example coming from
Apple
ORG
more than 200
CARDINAL
Apple
ORG
employees have signed a position the manning the company continue its flexible work polic Instead of it's planned return to the office
September 5
DATE
Requiring company employees to come in
2 to 3 days
DATE
a week they want hybrid schedules with direct reports rather than a corporate blanket policies this comes at a time when the term quitting is making the rounds on Social media the idea is not that employees actually quit but instead do the bare minimum at the job requires to maintain a healthy work life balance here to discuss
Daniel Chaperon
PERSON
CEO of Greenhouse which offers recruiting software as a service so does the
Apple Store
ORG
resonate with you based on what you're seeing from your clients Daniel. Yeah, you know, we've heard a lot of companies who, you know, in the pandemic, they all went remote and distributed and then now, when things are changing again, Want their employees back and in the office because they think that being there and being
Lacito
GPE
's employees somehow equals culture or some out equals productivity I think what's interesting about
the Apple Story
ORG
is what the employees are saying is we're being productive we're giving our best and the way we can be the most productive is by if I working in this more flexible way so it's it's Employees to create value and the role of the company either helping them do that or or trying to change how they do that Well and you'll see weather apple aquees is here in any way but you know doesn't seem that the pendulum is swinging back to the office and executive Just starting to work through omo crown. We'll see, you know, look, the pendulum has been swinging for
decades
DATE
in in favor of employees who have more power and more control than ever before and so, companies are finding themselves in this position of having to be people
first
ORDINAL
at Taking that on as as an opportunity and as a strategy has been very successful. Now, some companies kind of or leaders wanted to be the way it was or or somehow try to return to that. I think they're I think some of them are finding themselves stuck and and you know, ultimately, value is created by talent and people. If you're as a leader not able to Look I think there are some companies like you know
Apple
ORG
who have a huge investment in real estate and a big state of the art office and they wanna position that as an asset and as a stranger
There are some companies like, you know,
Apple
ORG
who have a huge investment in real estate and a big state-of-the-art office and they wanna position that as an asset and as a strength to those employees and some employees want that. For some people, no doubt, getting up, going to an office, being with other people is really attractive and really helpful to them. But for others, Not and so I think what your more seeing is you know multiple different kind of talent pools developing where some talent wants to work remotely other talent wants to work in the office and companies are kind of having to choose which part of the town pool they wanna play but in all cases they have to choose based on what the talent wants is it's the
First
ORDINAL
that's driving How how was this impacting hiring and retention? I mean, are you seeing a lot of people quit? A lot of people voting with their Well, look, unemployment is still at historically, you know, very low levels and I think it's it's easier than ever to get a job, right? You know, people can just swipe left on you and swipe left on someone else and they're working at a new company. They don't have to get a new, you know, commute. And so we're seeing this, yeah, people are resigning and you know, in higher numbers than they have been People are getting hired faster than ever and I think we've got
almost two
CARDINAL
job openings still for everyone. Job seeker in the market
today
DATE
. So, it's still a talent And companies are doing their best just to try to keep up and compete Let's talk about quiet quitting and this idea of just doing the bare minimum. Not gonna try too hard. Not gonna overexert myself because You want I'm just gonna do my job I'm just gonna do my job what what impact is this having Yeah look there's nothing wrong with doing your job and and not you know ruining your life in order in order to achieve it but at the same time you know at the point where it
kinda
GPE
moves over into this area of of sort you know sort of quitting or taking advantage of the system You know, it becomes a problem. I think what this has shown is that for many companies, they don't really have a great way of measuring what a good employee actually is. They don't actually know what output or what quality really looks like and so they use this thing of how long are you logged into your laptop or are you sitting in your cubicle instead of knowing which of my employees are actually And what do I do to inspire discretionary effort? I think the companies who are people
first
ORDINAL
focus on those questions you know having advantage and and they don't have this problem of of employees dropping out you know without telling them. Alright well certainly a lot to continue to follow greenhouse co-founder and CEO Daniel appreciate you stop and buy and give me us your take And that does it for this edition of
Bloomberg Technology
ORG
coming up
later this week
DATE
,
Wednesday
DATE
. Do not miss. My conversation with
Microsoft
ORG
Gaming CEO,
Phil
PERSON
,
Spencer
PERSON
,
Anne
PERSON
, check out Podcast you can find it anywhere you get your podcast studio
100
CARDINAL
. And
Bloomberg
PERSON
technology I'm Emily checking
San Francisco
GPE
this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
.
The great sci-fi art of
the mid 20th century
DATE
to use the vision of the future with
one
CARDINAL
distinct element and common A life for humans in outer space whether vacationing on an exotic new planet or commuting to the moon for business Trouble seemed like it was just around the corner. Hey here we are I have century later and
only about 500
CARDINAL
human beings have ever left the bounds of
earth
LOC
's atmosphere. But thanks to a set of ambitious private companies betting on the promise of space tourism. That long awaited future could be here sooner than we think. For most of the history of space flight governments have been the prime force behind nearly every aspect from planning to funding to cruise selection. But as early as the
1980
DATE
's proposals for commercial space tourism begin to emerge along with innovative solutions for getting people there such as the wild concept of sticking a
74
CARDINAL
person passenger cabin and the cargo bay of a
Nasa
ORG
space shuttle Although various non astronauts have been selected permissions over
the years
DATE
true space tourism didn't happen until
2001
DATE
when an entrepreneur named
Dennis Tito
PERSON
coughed up and estimated
20 1 million dollars
MONEY
to hit your rye with the
Russian
NORP
federal space agency for
a week
DATE
long vacation aboard the international space station
20 years later
DATE
were seen a new contender in this final Here of tourism. Private companies. Coming up a private enterprise Still very high risk with the high reward potential reward
Richard Branson
PERSON
that that do that heavy lifting.
Richard Branson
PERSON
that that do that heavy lifting. Commercial space tourism is usually about taking the non-astronaut, the private citizen into an orbital or suburbital flight. So, you get a short amount of microgravity experience and you can float and take some photos And then you come back This was something that technology had gotten to a point where the private sector was going to make a business out of this. There are multiple companies that wanna get to the place where they fly people into space. The
first
ORDINAL
of these is blue origin founded in
2000
DATE
by
Jeff Bezos
PERSON
using the autonomous rocket system new shepherd a tribute to the
first
ORDINAL
American
NORP
in space blue origin plans to launch
up to six
CARDINAL
passengers at a time offering a verified treat of
62
CARDINAL
mi high views and a momentary experience of weightlessness
Booking
ORG
officially kicked off in
May 2021
DATE
with the very first C to be auctioned off for charity meanwhile
Richard Branson's
PERSON
virgin galactic has also been pursuing a viable form of suborbital tourism aiming for launch in
2022
DATE
once sir
Richard
PERSON
himself has taken a flight So I got the whip on the team and we'll see how we go. The company claims to have lined up over
600
CARDINAL
seat reservations so far including
Justin Bieber
PERSON
and
Leonardo DiCaprio
PERSON
. Virgin has projected that the final cost of the ticket will be
at least 250 1000
CARDINAL
Although costly both companies offerings aim to make suborbital flight a regular form of adventure travel eventually driving down costs at scale to expand the customer base beyond the orbit of celebri Billionaires. The
third
ORDINAL
major contender is
Elon Musk's
PERSON
SpaceX which has set its sites even higher on orbital flights which are Another level of complexity and energy and danger. When you go subordinal, if you're just gonna go up above the
Von Carmen
ORG
line which is
100 km
QUANTITY
or about 62 mi You only need to get up to maybe
5000 mi an hour
TIME
to get up there and you go basically straight up and then straight back down you don't have the reentry heating that you would see coming in from an oral so when you go orbital I don't care if you're a baseball or a battleship you gotta go
17500 mph
QUANTITY
not just
1000
CARDINAL
mi an hour. The energy is involved are much greater. By doing that, SpaceX has gone another level up and that's what they're doing with the inspiration for Visit inspiration
four
CARDINAL
. Com for your chance Go to space. Inspiration for is the
first
ORDINAL
planned all civilian mission into orbit slated to launch in
late 2021
DATE
The crew will bring their own set of diverse perspectives and backgrounds and experiences to test how group of different people namely people who aren't professional astronauts could affair in space. Until now astronauts have had to be physically perfect and this mission is changing that and so I feel incredibly honored to to be representing those who aren't physically perfect. At
age 10
DATE
I was diagnosed with bone cancer and I was treated at
Saint Jude Children's
FAC
Research Hospital And I spent a year there undergoing intense chemo and also surgery that ultimately saved my leg. I now work at
St. Jude
FAC
as a PA physician assistant and I work with leukemia lymphoma patients. The kids we work with are are so brave and they are very excited to watch me go to space because this is showing them Hey
Lee
PERSON
along with
three
CARDINAL
other crew members we'll spend
3 days
DATE
in space or meeting the earth every 90 minutes before landing back off the coast of
Florida
GPE
Think about access the
first
ORDINAL
Astronauts for
the United States
GPE
came from the test pilot side and and so women born allowed to be a part of that we have somebody in the
30s
DATE
somebody in
the 40s
DATE
and somebody in their
50s
DATE
and so there can be access in all kinds of way whether you're talking about age whether you're talking about gender while you're talking about Ethnicity and all of those things. The
first
ORDINAL
time, you know, people are going up into space and not sent thereby with superpower like
the United States
GPE
or
Russia
GPE
or
China
GPE
. Well, that's like really significant. And you know you've you've gotta you know be very thoughtful about it. The whole game plan right now is to me.
Be very thoughtful about it. The whole game plan right now is to make space like really affordable and you know, accessible for everybody. So, you can have fishing buddies going to space someday but the
first
ORDINAL
is special And so with that we wanted to have you know a cruise selection process that could make space available to everyday people. Hey Facebook Space is only the
first
ORDINAL
step for space tourism. The next challenge is what to do and where to stay when you get there. Axium space is planning to launch the
first
ORDINAL
segment of a new commercial space station in
2024
DATE
there are
two 1 billion dollars
MONEY
project called
Axe Station
ORG
will become the
first
ORDINAL
free flying private international space station. Or to use a more consumer-friendly term. Space hotel.
Axim
ORG
is the only company out to make your space stay a little more comfortable. Igloo aerospace has been building what they call expandable habitat technology. Like there are B 330 uninflatable pod module that expands once in orbit. Attaching national space station right now they've been testing it and you take it up and it's rather small and then you inflate it and it seems to be working very very well this is likely to be the
first
ORDINAL
kind of Hotel that you're gonna see up in space.
First
ORDINAL
of all, it's easier to carry instead of this giant tin can with with all of that. You play the Wolver Blow 'em up
Nice
GPE
big size for about you know half the
less than half
CARDINAL
the weight probably But even a space missions become accessible to civilians. But risks are going to space are incredibly high. And you could die a
1000
CARDINAL
ways that we can think of and a
1000
CARDINAL
other ways that we can't think This is
Michelle Hanlon
PERSON
. She's a space lawyer at
the Mississippi School of Law
ORG
focused on protecting humans in outer space. No, I'm not an attorney for any of the space tourists. So, I haven't been previewed to their private contracts but I can tell you that the
FAA
ORG
requires certain waivers to be in those contracts. So, for example, the
FA
ORG
Says, well, we're not going to make you, make your spacecraft to a certain safety level. We are going to make you spacecraft operator. Make sure that you inform your space tourists of all of that hazards that you know of that I'd imagine it very long way where all the ways you can die in space. And you have to understand that there's health risks and you have to indemnify the
US
GPE
government if you are launching
the United States
GPE
. So those are things that we know is Facebook tourist has to sign and has to wait. So now let's go back and think about our space flight participants. The
FAA
ORG
calls space tourists Participants. They don't call them astronauts. Why is that important? If you're not an astronaut, there's no obligation to rescue you. I have something goes wrong. It's a lot of money to set up a rescue launch. Can even be done it's something really important to think about and that difference as we as we cross this threshold from having astronauts and space to having real people like me in space And when we're able to make it to space reliably enough there's still a host of other legal and ethical issues to consider before space tourism can truly take off There are so many gaps in space law that we are gonna have to put in a lot of certain basement ideas and so for example the outer space treaty is a treaty that offers principles and guidelines for state activities Are slip and falls you step on something in the bathroom you see the hotel and it become Private lawsuit. Related to that because The outer space treating the outer space regime have set this up is that anything that happens in space first has to go through a diplomatic channel before you think about sewing in
a quarter
DATE
blog and so every single slip and fall in a Space hotel is a diplomatic nightmare. And so we really need to figure that out before we before we start sending a lot of people there. About human rights and space. Here we don't think about.
Nightmare. Really need to figure that out before we, before we start sending a lot of people there. You think about human rights and space here we don't think about a human right oxygen because it's Kind of all around us, some free. So, what happens if something happens and they oxygen depletes? Who gets the oxygen first? And then of course, let's not even think about the labor. How do you treat your labor in a space hotel where that person it may be there
2 or 3 years
DATE
without coming To earth. So a lot of things to think about. Please habitats are more likely in the near future to focus on research missions and be a home for experiments that can't happen as easily back on earth. Space hotels I I think they garner a lot of headlines and a lot of news But at the same time that's not the first thing that you're gonna see happen they don't offer the compelling business case I think that you'll see from a place that wants to manufacture pharmaceuticals or a new type of crystal or Type of filament or fiber optic cables and and other things that you can do Gravity. The things that are actually You know I high value
Finish
NORP
good when you get that back to earth and you sell it for a very very huge profit margin. That's what's likely to happen in space as opposed to having AA real estate platform that you sell to a tourist by
Space Hotel
ORG
. It's really interesting and it will probably happen but it's not likely to be at the forefront of space commerce. Even if space hotels are right around the corner Don't get too excited about booking a trip in one It's not a cheap ticket to ride a space in and it's gonna be you know millionaires and billionaires and But at the same time, you know, the point was made that in
the early days
DATE
of airline trips, that was also a completely unaffordable ticket for most people. Those people who flew were people of means and over time it becomes
Affordable
PERSON
to the masses and I think that's the goal for all the entrepreneurs in space as well to get those cost down to a point where it's not
10 1 million
QUANTITY
or five Or $300 thousand bride in this suburbable space but it becomes more like buying a
first
ORDINAL
-class ticket to go to
Europe
LOC
from
the United States
GPE
so that that's the goal and you know, the question is, can can we get to that point? Given the immense operating cost of getting to space it may be years if ever until space tours and becomes a profitable venture for any of these companies
Virgin
PERSON
galactic the only publicly traded company of the
three
CARDINAL
has had
a particularly rocky year
DATE
initially riding on the momentum of a spec deal but more recently be set by launch delays and major funders including
Branson
PERSON
himself selling large quantities of their stock at the company Space is really, really, really hard and it's an absolutely shea but it's one that happens to be very true. It's just really hard to do. That's also the reason that you've seen The delays that you know virgin had talked
about flying years
DATE
and
years ago
DATE
and it became such a crazy point that
Richard Branson
PERSON
actually stopped talking about it when he was asked because it was never gonna be when he predicted but it's not instrumental and you know, investors have stepped up because this is something that is doable. Despite the astronomical dangers and costs of getting to space it may ultimately follow the course of other once fanciful modes of travel Right brothers having you know what was by modern standards a very unimpressive first flight you know a kitty hawk I mean you know you had like less than 20 years later you had your
first
ORDINAL
airborne ambulance is being used to save lives fundamentally the world isn't more interesting place when people can go and dance them on the stars and such Hey We are in exploratory species and we wanna go out there and see what's out there. In
1969
DATE
Normal human being. It's finally beginning to happen. When you get a bunch of people up there and they can all see it for themselves, that'll create even yet another revolution. And how we treat our planet and what we think about. So while
2001
DATE
came and went without quite looking like
Stanley Cubert's
PERSON
ultimate space fantasy 2021 might finally be
the year
DATE
we're catching up.
To all 2001 came and went without quite looking like
Stanley Cuber's
ORG
ultimate space fantasy 2021 might finally be
the year
DATE
we're catching up.
California Disneyland
PERSON
. We're jumping your convertible then take highway one up the coast Or maybe make a pilgrimage to Yosemite. Oh very fine choices. But if you're the kind of person who revels in our planets extremes.
395
CARDINAL
that you're after. Glorious road will carry you from death valleys desert floor to sky high views of
Mt. Whitney
LOC
You can see the 5000 year old bristle cone pines. The oldest living organisms. We're the bazaar tufa towers of mono lake. And true to
California
GPE
's boom and bust spirit. You can saunter around the ghost out of bodie. What a novel experience to find an empty
American
NORP
city where all the businesses are shut down. To do
395
CARDINAL
upright it helps to have a guide Is a man named
Yon
PERSON
And it's true.
Aaron Send Lemmy
PERSON
the hardest parting dog of all time. John agreed to show me some of what
395
CARDINAL
has to offer But only if we agreed not to disclose any locations My name is
Yance Restaurant
FAC
I'm an industrial designer out of
LA
GPE
and I spend a lot of time camping and a lot of time in
the Eastern Sierra
LOC
it's a place I love and sometimes I'm known as
395
CARDINAL
North because Yep my Instagram account and I don't like to be known as that but I'm trying to use it to set a good example Do more with it than just social media. Where did we end up camping? We got here Layla. I was sure where we are. This is
BLM
ORG
land right on the outskirts of
National Forest
ORG
.
One
CARDINAL
of my favorite places in the world. Everything outdoors wrapped into one. Oh man. We have so much national forest in public land That Literally just cruise out Find a place to camp. It's ours. Would i wish was mine
Unsweet
ORG
truck. It's a
2019
DATE
Ford Ranger
PERSON
has
about 200 watts
QUANTITY
of solar in it and a fridge and has everything that our
RV
ORG
has except for a toilet. Yeah. But just wanna smaller, simple scale. If you drive us around day to day and.
Day to day in
LA
GPE
yep and then just roll out when you want it's my daily driver handles great and then when I'm done with work I can just
Bail
PERSON
and go camping up. So, the camper basically has only what I need. Think of it as backpacking with a car. Yeah. The fridge has a couple compartments This is just a kitchen box Stove, utensils, and a bunch of stuff. This one has just dry food. Then, when you get inside, there's a bed. The bed
Flips
PERSON
up so you've got
tons
CARDINAL
of room in here Miss Awning. It's phenomenal. If you wanna pull that over That was cool. We just popped that up. So Home on Wills. Yeah. This is my vacation house.
Dude
PERSON
, it's so Even with his nomad lifestyle yawn faces the same big question as the rest of us. Do the internet and smartphones have to ruin everything when you find the super special beautiful spots is that You busted out a map and like looking where might be cool to go or is it where the mouth and just getting to know people of the locals and If I see a dirt road I just wanna go down. So a lot of this just aimless rambling. It's a desire to just see something. Check that out. For some reason it's more fulfilling than A recommendation from somebody or
Tons
PERSON
of apps and websites now road trip apps camping apps They proliferated. The knowledge is accessible on the internet, right I used to fight The geotags. Why are you posting this place? It's gonna blow up. It's gonna get trashed Now I've realized that you you can't fight it. The internet has just shrunk the world. So we're not gonna stop it. We're not gonna stop people from So I'm a lot more focused in conversation now with Trying to set a good example. When you go, pick up your trash. Pooping out in the wilderness don't leave your toilet paper on the You know, make sure you follow, you know, good steps for leaving no trace. There's a thank you for this quick guide to pooping etiquette. We made
John Herron
PERSON
and
Lemmy
PERSON
some tacos. And we all took in the night sky And knock back a couple of drinks Take that apocalypse
The thing about good times in serenity in
2020
DATE
is that they're fleeting at best After we split up from yawn and continued on our way smoke started to envelop us. The plus side was that our
RV
ORG
no longer smelled like feet. The downside was breathing My man David here suggested that we try an outflake the smoke by cutting through Yosemite without a reservation we had to talk our way in Yeah no no problem we just yeah we just wanted to get through. It was a beautiful choice. Glad we got out of the smoke. But not quite as effective as we had hooked. Fast forward
4 hours
TIME
or so and we had managed to trade the smokey majesty of Yosemite For the smokey
Strip
GPE
malls. Of
the Central Valley
LOC
. We have made it. Sort of out of the smoke. All the way across your
70
CARDINAL
national park and here to the gorgeous
Central Valley
LOC
of
California
GPE
. Hey And where would you wear here in this near
Fresno
GPE
this is
California
GPE
farm country right we're just south of
Fresno
GPE
town called
Kingsburg
PERSON
so we're right in the central valley of
California
GPE
very very large It's kinda considered the bread basket Of the world. The
Central Valley
LOC
stretches out over about
20 1000 square miles
QUANTITY
. And the farmers here produce
about one fourth
CARDINAL
of the food that
Americans
NORP
eat. Including a whole lot of fruits and nuts. Tell me a little bit of the background of of guys I know some of this is like a family business that the roots of that go back away is tell me it kinda like how we we got So what's essentially like a startup I guess? Yeah, definitely. So, the founder of our company is
Dave Crenklaw
PERSON
and he started the business back in
1982
DATE
. He started with his basically with his dad Was commercial spring of trees and vineyards. Got to the point where our biggest challenge was labor. Just the shortage of it, really. He was forced into innovating, and he had this idea for quite some time about doing a driverless sprayer, Hey finally got to the point where he said you know what I either gotta get out of this business or I'm gonna innovate
Organic
ORG
or not crops need to be sprayed and this process has to take place a few times a year. This means hiring a lot of people to work long hours under serious pressure and so just like the tech bros to the north. Decided to solve all of its problems with robots. On there's like labor points You guys have set this up where you can have somebody in a truck and and that one person can monitor. I think like eight of these. In order to operate gust, you have one guy or girl that sits in a pickup and they monitor from a laptop computer. So, that person is basically just watching all the vehicles on the screen. They can monitor up to
User
ORG
interface really provides them with all the information they need to make sure that the machines are safe and that they're doing the correct job. So,
And so that user interface really provides them with all the information they need to make sure that the machines are safe And that they're doing the correct job. So, it tells them what speed they're driving, the engine
RPM
ORG
, the amount of gallonage per acre that they're applying at any given time. So, if anyone in the machines has an issue, it's going to send an alert to that laptop. Much like a self-driving car, these beasts use G And cameras to see and navigate the world around them They also rely on prebuilt maps of the orchards for extra guidance.
Gus
PERSON
builds the machines right here And then take some out for robot training on this orchard next door. It's here that the company learns if the machines will behave and do as their software and human masters command. So, this, so this is a guy like the, this is test orchard where you Put it through the paces and work on the technology. Yeah, so this is our our test orchard right here. It's right by our building as you can see in the background. So, every new machine as it comes off the assembly We test all the sensors on the machine autonomous computer Safety systems make sure it's doing what it's doing prior to when it's delivered to a customer. So what's it doing now? So right now he's doing a test spray. So he's just turning the water on to make sure that the system comes up to pressure. Make sure it's all functioning properly. Okay. It's got like a crazy turbine at the back. Yeah, so it's basically just a big fan. Okay. And that fan's driven off of the
Commons Diesel
ORG
motor and it just basically creates a big airflow. This is already selling these vehicles to brave modern farmers. And people of the world over have taken notice of its machines Just so long in
the Central Valley
LOC
or like throughout the
US
GPE
or even overseas or where like where they go. Yeah, so right now, the majority of our machines are here in
California
GPE
in
the Central Valley
LOC
. However, we do have machines and customers in
Florida
GPE
and the citrus industry over there as well as
Australia
GPE
. And I think you start selling them and like December Yeah so we started taking orders
early last year
DATE
for the sprayers and the
first
ORDINAL
delivery we made were in
December of 2019
DATE
okay and then how much did they cost each so our our retail price on these machines is
285 1000
CARDINAL
The regular sprayers are are We're honestly not too far away from conventional equipment on our price and the main thing is is that the return on investment is very very quick due to all the labor savings and the increase efficiency I mean these machines they just they just But basically what we're doing besides this machine this is our our
first
ORDINAL
machine we call it orchard gas mainly designed for your your nut trees as well as citrus and fruit in the future we're working on a few other projects we're gonna do more machines one of them is actually a vineyard sprayer so vineyards are
Tighter
PRODUCT
spacing so the machine has to be physically smaller and then we've got our eyes on doing a lot of other innovating. That right there friends is a central valley farmer putting his whole fruit basket on the table. Jerry's
Ted Talk
PERSON
can't be far off. Hey with that it was time to get back in the
RV
ORG
. And to confront what happens Three men Are bested by their own failings. And the forces of entropy. Next on
Hello World
ORG
recruiting to the Mohave Desert in search of a lunar lander. We have instruments that we are going to deliver to
the South Pole Moon
LOC
in
December 22
DATE
. That are trying to scan the surface of the moon. And hang with a test pilot who walked away from this.
Instruments that are trying to scan the surface of the moon. And hang with a test pilot who walked away from this.
Meet Betty
PERSON
She lives by herself but for
the last few months
DATE
She hasn't been alone LYQ Tell me a joke. Apparently he just needed a little space Hey Most technology isn't made for
93 year olds
DATE
But this woman is making sure that this particular robot is I like you. Are you? The way we interact with machines. And if she has her way, robots will soon be a trusty companion for all of us. My name is
Elli Q.
PERSON
How can i help you? It's technology replaces old jobs. It's also creating new ones. I'm
Aki Eto
PERSON
and I'm here to show you the jobs of the future. My name is Danielle Ishak I am a human robot interaction researcher. It's really hard to intuitively design a robot meant for consumer audience. You have to make sure that it's a robot that people want. People know how to use. And people value.
Danielle
GPE
works for an really startup called intuition robotics. It's
US
GPE
office is here in downtown
San Francisco
GPE
. Hello hey
Danielle
GPE
it's Zacky come The company is funded by a couple big names like
Samsung
ORG
and
Toyota
ORG
Full disclosure
Bloomberg
PERSON
's venture capital arm is an investor too. This is Ellie Q Can I decorate out for a spin? Please You. Tell me what you can do. I am a proactive social robot designed for older adults. I can connect you to your family and friends and even play music. These features might remind you of the Amazon Echo If you compared her to a smart speaker. She's not meant to just be useful Just meant to be a companion. Why don't you take a break and have a drink And that's why she has a head that can nod and make others Expect from a pet. Our research with older adults were finding that almost on a daily basis we see that somebody tells her that they love her or that they like her or that they miss her I love you To tell her I'm depressed or I'm lonely they'll open up to her in a way that they might not necessarily open up to a human because they don't feel like they'll be judged. Ellie Q is it on sale yet? But a prototype is already in the homes of
about a dozen
CARDINAL
early testers who live in
the Bay Area
LOC
. LQ Tell me what the weather is
today
DATE
Danielle
GPE
's job is to figure out what's working and what's not. Sorry please rephrase your request And she does that by visiting each of her testers twice a month. Are these visits to your job? They're critical. We're building a product for people who we are not. How to design for somebody if you.
We're building a product for people who we are not. I'm not a senior How could you know how to design for somebody if you don't do research? Cuz otherwise, you would just be designing in the dark. Jobs like
Danielle
GPE
's are just starting to emerge. Until recently, robots were mostly in factories separated from humans. But now, they're finally getting cheap enough, small enough, and smart enough to be in our homes. This is created a whole new challenge of designing robots that people will actually wanna interact with. And that's where
Danielle
GPE
comes in. Her research has helped shape every little facet of LEQ. From the way LEQ moves to the way she talks. It's a very special job and it can be really hard and it can be really frustrating about the end of the day. It's incredibly rewarding. And I think the Rewarding part about it is when I see Like that they saw their feedback turned into something real
Today
DATE
we've driven east of
San Francisco
GPE
to go see one of
danielle
GPE
's research participants. All of you Tell me something interesting Did you know that
Ronald Dragan
PERSON
was a lifeguard in high school and saved
77
CARDINAL
people's lives? Now, see this is where a conversation is. She should open up and I should say, no, I did not know that. I expect her to be able to continue a conversation for at least a couple of comments. Yeah. Is that? Why? Yeah. Because Companionship When Betty was around Daniel's age she was working with some of histories very
first
ORDINAL
computers. When I was finishing up my master's degree
Working at Harvard in the computer
ORG
lab when they were building Mark four. Hey large room size computer But now Official intelligence stuff is amazing LQ. Schedule a doctor's appointment No problem. I'm working on it When Daniel brought along the idea of working with robotics for the elderly I said are you kidding me will older people connect to a robot And she said I don't know let's research and find out.
Danielle
GPE
grew up here in this suburb of
Atlanta
GPE
. Her parents spent much of their childhoods in
Israel
GPE
and met in the
US
GPE
. We as immigrants we understood that we might need to work a little harder In fact I feel that rather than taking away from
Danielle
GPE
it gave her so much more Because she understood the fact that you need to run after your dreams and work really hard no matter what the challenges are. School didn't come easily for
Danielle
GPE
I have dyslexia and that very much affected my self-esteem academically. The school did not recommend her to take advance classes she fought for it and she got injured and she did very well with them too The secretive research facility founded by
Google
ORG
. It's known for dreaming of all kinds of wacky farfling ideas. Can you tell us about the moonshots you work on? No i can't tell you too much about the projects that I worked on. I can't say that I was working on robotics She love the job but wanted to work on something that would reach real consumers sooner. So she left ex after
a year
DATE
and joined intuition robotics.
Consumer sooner. So she left X after
a year
DATE
and joined intuition robotics. She's been working in the field for
4 years
DATE
now. And it took her To find her footing in a male dominated industry. I've gone to different meetups where it'll be like a circle of men with their like zip up Went there like company logo on it and a beer in their hand and I'll come in with lipstick and nobody wants to talk to me. This is my closet So at first she did her best to fit in wearing a pair of glasses she didn't need
Down
PERSON
her style. So what's the kind of thing you used to wear to a conference? Stuff like this. Say things let me feel like you're
40
DATE
. But that got old after a while And what's the kind of thing you are now? No it's like I just enjoy being kind of expressive and playful in what I wear Before we wrap up for
the day
DATE
.
Danielle
GPE
has
one
CARDINAL
more LEQ tester to visit. Joseph is
97
DATE
And he's had the robot in his home for
8 months
DATE
. I'm fine. How are you? Good. Good. How has miss
Eli Cuban
PERSON
? Me to take a drink of water
At least four
CARDINAL
times a day. So we added a whole bunch of new facts to Elecute Did you know that a cup of chopped
red bell
ORG
pepper contains more vitamin C than an orange? Okay. You think of that? The prince was I could see that. Okay. Quite clearly. What about this? I can see that.
Barbecue Play
PERSON
music No problem. It will begin shortly By
2050
DATE
almost half
CARDINAL
a one
1 billion
CARDINAL
people are gonna be
80 year
DATE
older. And if current trends continue More are gonna be like Joseph and
Betty
PERSON
living alone. Have a queue.
Today
DATE
both of them are doing okay But some of
Daniel's
ORG
other participants have been struggling. Is it kinda hard to leave them at
the end of the day
DATE
? It is. Some of our protesters are In the stages of depression through lonelyness and isolation. And at times That Elecute is cheering them up in
their day
DATE
. But I know that it's only part of the way. No source of artificial intelligence robots will ever be able to replace
Humans
ORG
and human companionship or human care The key to
Danielle
GPE
's work is to embrace that very limitation of machines. Robots should help humans do what they love. Help humans interact with more humans. Help humans in general. Not poor humans away from humans Not take humans jobs and leave humans about purpose Whether it's in our workplaces or in our homes
Robots
NORP
are soon gonna be everywhere And it's up to
Danielle
GPE
to make sure this robot filled future leaves us just a little better off. So don't be afraid And if you are afraid come and join us Promise it's a friendly place
So don't be afraid And if you are afraid come and join us Promise it's a friendly place. If you're like
the estimated
PERCENT
74%
PERCENT
of adults in the
US
GPE
who use
YouTube
ORG
this might be what your home screen looks like. An algorithmically curated look into what you like to watch. Maybe some tips on how to prepare a new meal or your favorite blogger's latest video. But if you're a parent who shares your phone with your children it probably looks a little more like this. Kids content on
YouTube
ORG
is huge. Views for videos can reach into the billions five of the top
10
CARDINAL
videos in all of
YouTube
ORG
's history are either music videos or kids videos with baby shark having more views than people on the planet
Grandma
PERSON
.
Youtube
ORG
has created a revolution Evolution. In the way kids and families consume video content. And that extends Into how they view toys and play and all of the associated things that go with that.
Kids YouTube
PERSON
for the unaware can be adorable. It can be boring. It can also just be flat out strange. But often it involves toys. And for toy makers who embrace the platform, it led to record success. Yellow surprise Biggest phenomenon that has ever happened in touring this shit This is the story of how
YouTube
ORG
change kids toys. Hey patterns
Children
PERSON
play is timeless but how we deliver on those play patterns through product and how we market that to children has changed quite a bit over
the years
DATE
and I would say that
the last 5 to 10 years
DATE
really ranks right up there with the 19 fif When TV commercials directed to children this first launched by
Mattel
ORG
During the
90s
DATE
and spent
4 years
DATE
as the chief marketing officer for spin master. Used to be that there would be a few play things that parents would bring into the home or that children would create themselves like a stick and a ball becomes AA play thing and the industry was at a certain level of volume at that point. Was very innovative and actually put the first product on TV Advertised it to children
Play
PERSON
home. This created a huge explosion in the toy industry that unfolded
across decades
DATE
. When you're ready to play everyone knows it's When you go back to the
1980
DATE
's what do you think of in terms of hit shows you think of things like masters of the universe you think of the original transformers and care bears? The joke was they were
22 minute
TIME
commercials. Close your eyes Hey let's make a TV show to.
Bear
ORG
bears The joke was they were
22 minute
TIME
commercials. Just close your eyes and care Let's make a TV show which is really promotion for our property or IP to help sell toys. We rely those famous characters in which kids absolutely loved it. They were totally entertained but they were huge toy lines behind them. This is Silver a
37 year
DATE
veteran of the toys industry in
1999
DATE
he started a consumer toy review magazine called Toy Wishes and now he's the CEO of an influencer talent management group
TTPM Changed
ORG
through
the years
DATE
and also parents became aware that they were purely commercials and you saw a lot of the new channels the Disney channel in
Nickelodeon
ORG
they realized that wouldn't work anymore and to them entertainment came before licensing what happened over Was that toys started to become For
a 32nd
DATE
commercial So You couldn't explain it in a
32nd
ORDINAL
commercial Reduce it out of the product and just stick with you know what you could say and features a toys magical features using electronics lights and sounds and mechanical movements that magic like they don't know how it happens that became more and more important Hey portal Since
2000
DATE
with the cable channels dedicated to kids
Disney
ORG
channel
Nickelodeon
ORG
cartoon network there became the opportunity to reach kids in mass numbers
The week
DATE
The the toy industry is continued to grow. For the most part was a pretty solid business just you know growing
a couple percent
PERCENT
a year here and there there be big big years here and there when there's maybe a hit movie Like a Star Wars movie come out you know drive a lot of toy sales
2014 to 2019
DATE
the global toy industry would grow by
15%
PERCENT
. At about the same time those major cable networks of
Nickelodeon Disney channel
ORG
and cartoon network would lose
half
CARDINAL
their total audience.
2017
DATE
also saw the bankruptcy of toys are us. As both parents Kids discovered and bought more toys online. Think about kids they're usually the the
first
ORDINAL
adopters of a new
Medium
PRODUCT
kids weren't watching things like
Nickelodeon
ORG
as much as they used to. They were watching things on
YouTube
ORG
.
Youtube
ORG
started in
early 2005
DATE
and this was like you know the very early web
200
CARDINAL
. Is beginning of sort of like what were the time was gonna reduce your generated content Myspace was the biggest thing on the internet. Back then, there was an early video of a
Brazilian
NORP
soccer legend. Doing stunt tricks that just when exploded on the site when the, the
first
ORDINAL
viral videos,
Lazy Sunday
ORG
, if you remember that
SML
ORG
short. Vitney. Early spiral hits. Youtube in
the early days
DATE
was definitely Studios I oversaw The creator partnerships and all over the world. With some of the biggest
YouTube
ORG
channels of the time before being sold to
Disney
ORG
in
2014
DATE
chris
PERSON
is now the CEO of
Pocket Watch
ORG
which represents some of the largest kid stars on
YouTube
ORG
including
Ryan
PERSON
's world and love
Diana
PERSON
who can amass over a couple one
1 billion
CARDINAL
views
every month
DATE
the truth is one of the very biggest and earliest videos on all of
YouTube
ORG
it's by a creator Name I
Justine
PERSON
where she unboxed her
Mobile
GPE
phone bill. For her brand new
iPhone
ORG
and it came in a box This ultimately morphed into many different formats associated with unboxing and tech. Was actually really big. And those became
This ultimately morphed into many different
Formats
NORP
associate with unboxing and tech was actually really big. And those became fairly successful. Pretty early on. On the platform, You know, you saw them expand from tech products to beauty products and then around
2012
DATE
, and
2013
DATE
, we saw this explosion in the toys. So, here's the furbien side right here. We used to call them hands channel Okay and a hands channel with literally Unboxing typically a toy and they'd unbox it they'd show each component Just got uncle screwed. Many of those creators we signed many of those creators at
Maker Studios
ORG
to be our partners and it was it was fascinating in that it was this whole new genre and this whole new format That corresponded Arise of kids and family viewership on youtube that was dark that was hard to miss And you would see it in the data And we had access to a lot of data maker studios around
YouTube Let's
ORG
see what's inside.
First
ORDINAL
that we have the storm super pig. I consider the
first
ORDINAL
child so to speak on boxing star and they would open toys and kids were just mesmerized by it. They loved watching it and next thing you know, you had literally
50
CARDINAL
unboxings. They were unboxing just about every toy. You know, it was and people just really excited. You open the And you see a toy pop out and kids just got excited see the piece by piece yeah he's he's in a bathroom wearing it he's eating a lobster you know the early days of these unboxing videos the videos were you know From adults perspective just terrible I mean they were
10 minutes
TIME
long they were boring that it was a shaky camera there was actually no production value If you think about these executives, you know, they're they're trying to figure out how to reach this new audience And they're they're brought these videos and say we'll look at this video it has
200 1000
CARDINAL
views on it And it's terrible. When I
first
ORDINAL
heard of it, I thought it was the weirdest thing. It just seemed
kinda bizarre
PERSON
. Who would wanna watch someone opening a toy, taking it out of the box? But then when I started thinking about this idea of exploration and discovery as a core play pattern, the most fundamental play pattern there is It it started to make sense I think that I have to say that the company that that really jumped on that in the most concerted way was
MGA
ORG
with their launch of
LOL
ORG
.
LL
ORG
surprise had
three
CARDINAL
Play pattern there is collectible so with with any LOL surprise you'd get a little sheet that showed you all the other dolls you could collect and in the surprise factor you don't know which doll you were getting it was a blind pack as they call it an LOL was made by this company called MGA back You know,
2016
DATE
, they were small player in the toy industry, founded by And I said like what? And they said for example they've You know about this iphone unboxing That yet
millions and millions
CARDINAL
of views so I thought they're pulling my leg To make fun of their parents. I did go and look one night I was frankly shocked. Death why would you why would anybody buy an
iPhone
ORG
take it home Print the box and show it on the camera So so many different videos and
Dad
PERSON
gave me an idea that why why not come up with the ultimate
So that gave me an idea that why why not come up with the ultimate and that's the that's the first LOL surprise. Oh We've got a gold ball. LOL change the way you open with toys and everybody saw that and the packaging became part of the play which became part of the entertainment so normally if you get a package that you just
Package
ORG
you take the toy out that's not exciting you open up LOL you peel it away you open up inside you have
seven
CARDINAL
surprises and it took off like wildfire and quickly became you know the top toy Country.
20188
CARDINAL
of the top
10
CARDINAL
toys sold were all lol surprise brand and according to
MGA
ORG
from
2016
DATE
to 2020 lol would generate over
10 1 billion dollars
MONEY
in retail sales worldwide Bigger than Star Wars it's bigger than Marvel it's bigger than
Barbie
PERSON
these brands with huge advertising budgets Are known basically by everyone. You don't have to, you Figure out what marble or or stars is An LOL Eclipse them all. Or blind box toys have been growing in popularity. The most famous example in
recent years
DATE
is
Pokemon
PERSON
cards. Were you open packs and hopes of getting a
Charizard
ORG
but more often wind up with something common like
Glygar
ORG
here.
2 years
DATE
before the launch of LOL and
2014
DATE
the
Australian
NORP
toy company Moose Toys launched a blind bag collectible called
Shopkins
PERSON
. And in
Spinmaster
PERSON
would launch a more expensive blind box toy it called patchimals. But the thing that sets LOL surprise apart is that it manly focused on
YouTube
ORG
I'm not putting ads on
YouTube
ORG
but working with creators and and influencers to get their products in their hands of these kids doing the unboxing videos for
MGA
ORG
actually the the move towards
YouTube
ORG
was was kind of a bit lucky and almost out of necessity. In
late 2015
DATE
Nickelodeon
ORG
parent company via com would sue
MGA
ORG
for breach of contract after it fail Pay $
three
MONEY
.
5 million
CARDINAL
for the production of a TV series based on their
La La Lupsi
WORK_OF_ART
dolls. They tried to flex their muscle They said well if you don't agree to our Hey We are going to stop at your advertisement At the time
Nickelodeon
ORG
was the number
one
CARDINAL
ranked children's network and not to be able to advertise in
Nickelodeon
ORG
could have been a death now But
MGA
ORG
necessity is the mother of invention. That cause them to lean into digital advertising More than any big brand had ever done before because they had to. They had to find a new way to reach kids. Both in
LA
GPE
federal court and on appeal in the
ninth
ORDINAL
circuit.
Larry
PERSON
and blame the court to feed on what he contends was judicial bias.
Nickelodeon
ORG
parent company viacome didn't respond to a request for comment. So that by itself forces to go and say okay. Let's find another way to reach
two
CARDINAL
children. And that's how we went and doubled up on the
YouTube
ORG
especially and the rest of they say So early on
MGA
ORG
partnered with
YouTube
ORG
creators Huge audiences. My cookie swirl
C. Good morning
PERSON
chocolatey chippy cookies we are gonna be spending
the morning
TIME
with this LOL surprise baby.
With
YouTube
ORG
creators with huge audiences my cookie swirl
C Good
PERSON
morning
TIME
chocolatey chippy cookies we are gonna be spending the morning what does LOL surprise baby fancy They took it another step further they actually helped kids learn how to do their own unboxing videos they they gave them you know support and learning and tools and so all on these kids got to be kind of a little mini influencer themselves as they were Seen their LOL products. Of how popular these videos are. Go on to
YouTube
ORG
and search LOL surprise. And you'll see videos with a
one 1 million
QUANTITY
views Which was
about 90%
PERCENT
of their ad spend and then traditional PR get on the big morning shows An entirely different formula. It's much harder for toy companies right now because the formula is so complicated. You have to really take a deep dive into each platform and my promoting on
Twitter
PERSON
, my promoting on
Instagram
ORG
, I'm promoting on
TikTok
ORG
. What am I doing on By
2017
DATE
big toy brands like
Mattel
ORG
had shifted
nearly 50%
PERCENT
of their marketing budget to social platform advertising brands would help seed videos of their toys and if they were lucky Estimated the LOL related content had a mask
five
CARDINAL
.
1 billion
CARDINAL
views. This idea of imitation. So, when you see kids playing with product, it kind of excites the same neurons in your brain that happen when you do it yourself. The more we could show children Experience the more kids felt what it would be like to have it and then wanted to experience it Owls. Systems of this whole influencer movement among kids is that kids are young they don't understand what's it necessarily an advertisement versus real content That's a big criticism of this industry. Is that a lot of kids are getting on
YouTube
ORG
,
a young ages
DATE
, not being supervised by their parents. I just watching this videos and they don't realize that maybe that influencer's getting paid by the brands, do that video, or there's some other compensation and that, you know, blurs the lines for kids. They're sort Developing and figure out how to consume media. Questionable advertising concerns aside. Kids
YouTube
ORG
creators would take off channels like
Ryan
PERSON
's world would grow to
almost 30 1 million
QUANTITY
subscribers and a whole industry formed around them. We first started working with influencers they were very happy to work for free product You given the product and they do something for you then gradually influencers got smarter and started you know charging for their services as they started building a following now It is such a big business. The dollars can be significant investing in big influencers. Launch one of its new TV series and associated product we made it a point to buy an advertising package
Ryan
PERSON
's world to ensure that we could get Quick, big, reach, right away. Creating narratives around the toys Voices meta universes if you will and it's really engaging content Even more so than the original unboxing videos for these kids and you know the contents coming out maybe once a week or even So if you think about it what they've done is they've created basically like a TV show around a toy Which is criticized back then by the way when you've had toys like GI
Joe
PERSON
turn into a animated series Full circle now, right? So, back to where we were, content, and basic mini television shows created around toys on
YouTube Kids
ORG
content on
YouTube
ORG
is likely to face increase
The reviews but now
Ryan
PERSON
has launched his own line of toys A cartoon series He was even a blimp in the
2020
DATE
Macy's
Thanksgiving
DATE
parade You and I might think about
Spider Man
PERSON
or
Snoopy
NORP
But
today
DATE
's kids see that blimp of
Ryan
PERSON
and they relate to him. He's the character they wanna grow up with. He's the character that they wanna engage with. And as we go forward, these influencers are becoming more and more like big, giant, global brands. And that has profound For entertainment going forward Airbnb is huge
today
DATE
on any given night you could have
as many as two 1 million
CARDINAL
people staying in an Airbnb all around the world You know, our mission is that everyone can belong anywhere. We're talking, you know,
300 1 million
QUANTITY
stays on
any average year
DATE
. And there's tyranny in numbers. The vast majority of Airbnb stays don't result in a safety incident. But sometimes things go wrong And for Airbnb you know we're talking
thousands
CARDINAL
of safety incidents that occur
every year
DATE
that the company has to handle and has to respond to. I'm talking situations like kidnappings hostage cases We're talking murder. We're talking rape. We're talking, you know, the worst violent crimes that occur in our society happen inside
Airbnb
ORG
's Airbnb never wants these kinds of cases to end up in the headlines you know that's really bad for the the brand their reputation and their public image Because this is a business that's based on strangers trusting one another. So when crimes like this occur that kind of threatens their entire business model. I'm
Olivia Carville
ORG
. I'm a reporter on
Bloomberg
ORG
's technology team and I've been covering online travel companies like Airbnb for
the last 2 years
DATE
. Airbnb is a startup that's based in
Silicon Valley
LOC
and like many of the sharing economy startups it managed to grow so big so fast Essentially skirting regulations. It was based on that premise of moved fast and break things and it wanted to work against regulations in order to grow as big as possible and when the popular vote because it became so popular so fast that cities could no longer control And a pig night
this past August
DATE
. We had
one 1 million
CARDINAL
people from around the world coming from
180
CARDINAL
countries in
a single night
TIME
staying in an
Airbnb
ORG
home. The vast majority of Airbnb stays. We're talking, you know,
two 1 million
CARDINAL
people staying in an Airbnb on any given night. Don't result in a safety incident. But sometimes things go wrong. End for the company you know it was Dealing with these cases was a really challenging, difficult, complicated area. You had hosts and guests and sometimes they disagreed on what happened. You had regular Tory issues and some of their biggest cities. Then you also had You know the growth of the platform and the fact that if you're going to try and prevent some of these
On what happened you had regular Tory issues and some of their biggest cities then you also had you know the growth of the platform and the fact that if you're going to try and prevent some of these incidents it could cut into revenue and cut into the number of listings that you have so for Airbnb it was about trying to figure out the best way to handle these In a way that's going to not only protect the individual in crisis but also protect the company's public image. It's brand, it's reputation, which is essentially what it's business is based upon. There is Airbnb grew like way too big for them to be able to take all these calls alone they developed a team of
100
CARDINAL
highly specialized agents that handle the worst of the worst cases The course of my reporting I've talked to
almost 50
CARDINAL
former employees at
Edia BMB
PERSON
and you know seven or eight of those work directly on this elite unit these safety agents many of them come from military backgrounds or trauma backgrounds the are trained to handle traumatic situations and to try and you know help people who are Through what what may be you know the worst day in their lives For these safety agents a lot of them understood that they had a jewel role
First
ORDINAL
and foremost they wanted to protect the user in crisis But they also knew they had a responsibility to protect the company's brand and public image. I mean everything about housing in
New York
GPE
is a total mass and it's always chaotic. It's not too surprising that
Airbnb
ORG
's biggest battle has broken out here. 2015 was a really challenging
year
DATE
for
Airbnb
ORG
. Airbnb's listings
between 2010 and 2014
DATE
were essentially illegal hotels. You know, the company was
7 years old
DATE
now. It had grown huge. It was now a household name. But by growing that big, that fast, they also came up against, you know, a push back in regulations. For every kind of reason. They knew that they couldn't lose the battle in
New York
GPE
because it was one of their biggest markets and also it could result in a domino effect if other cities around
America
GPE
saw a
New York City Breaking
GPE
down on regulations or enforcing strict irregulations that could in turn be rolled out right across the country. I think it's gonna be awkward when they have to, you know, put in their perspectives, their risk factors when they have to say, well, you know,
one
CARDINAL
risk is that Thing might be someone illegal in in our biggest market. And in
December of that year
DATE
a young woman from
Australia
GPE
flew into
New York
GPE
and stated an Airbnb with a group of her friends They picked up a key from the local corner bodega without even needing identification. The police report said this
29 year old
DATE
woman left her friends at a midtown bar and returned to the Airbnb on her own. She thought that she was alone but she wasn't There was a man inside the apartment hiding in the shadows with a kitchen knife. He grabbed her During tour room and rape tour. Hey later fled.
About an hour
TIME
after this attack he came back and police were in the apartment at the time. They open his backpack and found
three
CARDINAL
items of interest. The kitchen knife One of the women's earrings. In a set of keys to the
Airbnb
ORG
. This case was a really complicated
one
CARDINAL
for
Airbnb
ORG
. Partly because it occur it occurred in
New York City
GPE
where they were fighting this really tough battle with city officials over regulations and partly because The alleged rapist had the keys and he was inside the apartment That meant that you're BNB needed to do what it could to to protect itself. They wanted to find out you know how did he get the keys? That was a really big question for them. They launched an investigation to find that out. But before they did anything like that before they thought to kind of protect their own reputation here. They really focused on doing what To help this young woman They paid for her to move to a hotel they pay
To kind of protect their own reputation here. They really focused on doing what they could to help this young woman. They paid for her to move to a hotel. They paid for her mother to fly in from
Australia
GPE
. They paid for both of them to fly home. They offered to cover any health or lee or counseling costs that she might need later. But inside the company internally they also launched an investigation they wanted to know How did the alleged rapist get the keys how did he get inside that he'll be And when they found out that the keys had been left at the corner bodega Being created you know a problem of liability for your BMB they didn't have a policy around key exchange they didn't tell their hosts how they did or didn't have to hand keys over to guests as they were arriving So for your BMB they also you know they wanted to know what was gonna be said in court they wanted to know if any media were gonna pick up on the story And they wanted to know what the illegal liability potentially could be.
A week later
DATE
the alleged rapist was indicted and
the supreme court
ORG
in
New York
GPE
and
Airbnb
ORG
sent a staff member to find out if the company was gonna be mentioned in any of the court records and it wasn't. It wasn't mentioned in the police report There's no mention of Airbnb really in any public record. This case has never been reported until now. And you know for Airbnb Kind of lucky. This case never landed in the media. You know
18 months later
DATE
when this woman's lawyer reached out to the company They signed a settlement for
seven 1 million dollars
MONEY
. And part of that settlement there's a cause that says she cannot
Assert
PERSON
or imply responsibility on the part of the company. We've spoken to legal experts who indicate that what this really did is gag the woman from saying I blame
Airbnb
ORG
. Airbnb is
one
CARDINAL
of the few companies in the world that has this like online offline kind of hybrid Where you have users who Meet online and then Meet in the offline world and stay under the same roof. And that means that the company at
the end of the day
DATE
really has to take more responsibility than other social media platforms might do. Will there be terms of service that really means that whenever there's a dispute between hosts and guests and the company this is all handled behind closed doors in arbi Most of these cases don't even make it to the courtroom and when they do the company will settle them so it doesn't go on through the courts. And what that means is that there hasn't really been
Liability
ORG
is here. You know, is it really responsible for when things go wrong inside it's listings? What I learned over the course of my reporting is that this is anything but simple This is a complicated nuanced area. There are difficult trade offs here The company also has to have hard you know tough conversations about policy. Airbnb's business model is based on strangers trusting one another. We often hear from the founders and the chief executive himself saying trust is their
number one
CARDINAL
priority. I've actually heard
Brian Cheski
PERSON
, the chief executive of
Airbnb
ORG
, talking about how he didn't build a website or a platform that allows people to stay Each other's homes what he built was a community that trusts one another And win that premise is undercut
Airbnb
ORG
's entire.
That allows people to stay in each other's homes what he built was a community that trusts one another And win that premise is undercut
Airbnb
ORG
's entire business model is under threat. Phones earth view Sounds far fetched at the moment, doesn't it But you know We may be seeing ads like this in the not too distant future. Living away from earth has always captured our imagination as well as providing the basics for survival these ideas are a symbol of humankind's unique creativity and ambition This advance bees or space station will be headquarters for the finalist and to the moon. The idea of multiple outposts where we can live and work in space has never seen closer. Species having a path for our future. And the mission to create this habitat is well underway as private companies get ready to take that next giant leap The international space station it's the only space habitat we have
One
CARDINAL
of the first places they take you in the
ISS
ORG
is the coupon so you can finally look at the earth in all its beauty and it I don't care who you are it's always stunning it's shocking it's it's amazing because that's the view you've been waiting for your entire life. It passes over
90%
PERCENT
of the world's population without most of us ever realizing At an estimated cost of
150 1 billion dollars
MONEY
it's the most expensive object with ever built. You think about like the
16
CARDINAL
chapel, the pyramids, and the birds
Khalifa
PERSON
or or to take your pic. I mean, it far outstrips those. It's the one and only non-terrestrial human outpost. We've had a constant human footprint in orbit for
almost 20 years
DATE
because of the international space station. The collaboration between
15
CARDINAL
countries started construction in
1998
DATE
and was peace together in space over the course of
a decade Since 2000
DATE
it's been a permanently crude research laboratory a space habitat that's allowed humankind to live manufacture and explore beyond earth The overarching achievement of the space station has been Vacation. It is educated us about how to do research. It's educated us about how to live. It's educated us about the harshness of the environment that it is in and it's about learning I think. People say what was one of your favorite parts about being up there hands down floating everywhere I went but your first impressions for
ISS
ORG
certainly is it's how big it is. The
ISS
ORG
is a size of an
American
NORP
football field with most of that footprint taken up by
eight
CARDINAL
solar eras these provide enough energy to power
40
CARDINAL
homes The station has an
American
NORP
side and a
Russian
NORP
side as well as contributions from other nations like
Canada
GPE
,
Japan
GPE
, and
the European Union
ORG
. Astronauts on board can pass freely between these sections their living and working areas are made up of modules each
four
CARDINAL
. Two metres in diameter and in total they have the same volume as the bowing
747
CARDINAL
The
three
CARDINAL
main labs destiny hope in
Columbus
GPE
are conducting up to
600
CARDINAL
ongoing experiments at any
They have the same volume as the
Boeing
ORG
747
PRODUCT
. For
three
CARDINAL
main labs destiny hope in
Columbus
GPE
are conducting up to
600
CARDINAL
ongoing experiments at any one time And while it's been a collaboration between governments to build and maintain the
ISS
ORG
it's next chapter will rely more on private enterprise
Today
DATE
is a very remarkable day. Opening the international space station to commercial opportunities Marketing these opportunities as we've never done before. Cost $
three
MONEY
.
4 billion
CARDINAL
a year That's over
half
CARDINAL
Nasa
ORG
's space operations budget Aging hardware and space debris will only add to these costs which is why
Nasa
ORG
is now hoping to pass some responsibility for the station over to commercial companies Like to see a robust commercial marketplace in lower
Thor
GPE
but we're space stations exist outside of
Nasa
ORG
the goal being That
Nasa
ORG
could be a customer and we wanna have numerous providers that are competing against each other on cost and innovation. With federal funding proposed to stop in
2025
DATE
opening the station to private enterprise would free up resources for the space agencies ambitions to return to the moon and journey to
Mars Transferring
NORP
to more commercial model is allowing industry to take over many of those areas that
Nasa
ORG
has traditionally been responsible for like the design and operations and maintenance of space systems but the most exciting part I think is new opportunities the
iPhones
ORG
would have never come from the government The base technology came from the government but the way it's used, the way it interacts with consumers, governments, aren't really built for that. So, I think that'll be exciting to see how private industry uses the same technology or or the same systems within a different way. Every
Nasa
ORG
achievement has been the collaborative achievement of
Nasa
ORG
and industry. What's going on right now that's a little bit different is
Nasa
ORG
is turning to companies not to direct them what to do but it's turning to companies to build relationships with them because those companies are attracting investment from On space sources and are bringing a different kind of innovation to the table. In the shadow of
Nasa
ORG
's sprawling
Johnson
PERSON
's space center the headquarters of startup
Axium Space
FAC
might seem a little modest but their goal is big to build the
first
ORDINAL
commercial space station Buy a former
ISS
ORG
program manager the team has been involved in every mission to the station since it's inception
Heritage
ORG
to start there so we can evolve everybody to the next platform. I like in this to the internet. So, the internet was created. We got very excited and any kid with a good idea and just the basic programming skills could go build a program to do something. We have huge companies that grew out of that and still
today
DATE
, there's new ideas, new
Being
ORG
built. The thing about environment is it's limitless. It's like the data we have access to on the internet. It is limitless. And it is not immediately obvious to us. All the benefits that that's gonna entail. But over time it will become very very obvious. By
2024
CARDINAL
action plans to send a central node to attach to the
ISS
ORG
. That will make up the core of their new station This will be followed by crew quarters for
16
CARDINAL
people and research and manufacturing modules When the
ISS
ORG
has retired this will break away an additional modules with a lifespan of
30 years
DATE
will be added and swapped out as they age using a robotic arm Hoping to do all of this for
one
CARDINAL
50th the cost of the
ISS
ORG
. I mean, when you talk about our vision, it sounds really simple. It really is about The thought process and the cost So that anybody that wants to take advantage of our place in orbit and a microgravity environment can do so and that's really it. I need to go towards my feet.
Fantastic
NORP
vehicle but one of the big things is they have a quite a few Major components outside Which means you have to do an
EBA
ORG
.
Major components outside which means you have to do an EBA as space walk to go fix it a space walk on a good day is
100 hours
TIME
of crew time to get ready and actually go do the the space watch that we're able to take advantage of the reduce size of components and so our design is gonna have all The components are gonna be in a pressurizing environment So, we know what the basics are. You know, water food Clothing life support and we know how to handle those but now the next step is how do we make it more intuitive And we want to now take advantage of the technology and the and the capabilities have
the day
DATE
to build more luxury into the experience. The objective is to make the environment the background for all the users. Your everyday doing whatever you wanna do on orbit, research, manufacturing, looking out the window, whatever you're there to do. We want you to be able You won't worry about that.
321
CARDINAL
, release, release, release. Like virgin gallactic and blue origin actually is hoping to attract space tourists with tickets starting at
55 1 million dollars
MONEY
for
a 10 day
DATE
mission but that's just
one
CARDINAL
part of the commercial space station market that they think could be worth
37 1 billion dollars
MONEY
over
the next decade
DATE
Commercial customers are countries who have astronauts in space and want to expand their activity in space and countries who do not yet have a human space flight program who want to send people up and we've now got both research and manufacturing companies Want to do work with us while we're at
the International Space Station
FAC
and on our platform after it separates from my SS. Human space flight is particularly exciting because it's at slice of space that is really nice it hasn't undergone the crowding that satellites have had it hasn't already had that explosive growth it's really ready for that now The first thing I'm really looking forward to seeing happen is the face of our
first
ORDINAL
astronaut on orbit looking back down on us and knowing that we had a hand and sending that person to space and ultimately the separation of
ISS
ORG
when it's ready to be retired in the orbited and then we continue in space independently for That is a stepping off moment for humanity. It's almost like when
Neil Armstrong
PERSON
put that first boot on the moon. This will be the
first
ORDINAL
time that we've gone from a platform of learning how to live in space, to building our permanent home and space. Other private companies also want to use the
ISS
ORG
as the starting point for their own ventures. Aerospace already has one of its inflatable structures attached to the station and others including
Sierra
ORG
and
Nevada
GPE
and
Nanarax
PERSON
have put forward proposals
Habitats
PERSON
are expensive. I think it's a false economy to say, okay, we're done with the international space station. Let's move on to commercial platforms. What I think is much more likely and realistic in what
Nasa
ORG
is certainly driving toward is an incremental transition where commercial platforms attached to the space station or Collaboratively with the space station the next chapter of cannot occur Active engagement of companies. Said that active engagement might not be as customers might not be as drivers it might be in service of government mission objectives we will return
American
NORP
astronauts to the moon not only to leave behind footprints and flags but to build the foundation we need to send
Americans
NORP
Mars
LOC
and beyond. This proposed mission along with
SpaceX
PERSON
's own ambition to reach a red planet has opened up a longer term market and some companies are already thinking beyond orbiting habitats like space stations to actually building on a surface of other planets.
Skyscrapers Rock
PERSON
in the middle of the ocean and that for me was a trigger. I thought, wow, this could actually happen and it's always been my dream to put a building on the moon or
Mars
LOC
If he's going out the pieces going it could definitely happen within my lifetime and I wanna be the one to build it. In this warehouse alongside startups from across the
US
GPE
are
Within my lifetime and I wanna be the one to build it. In this warehouse alongside startups from across the
US
GPE
architecture firm
AI
ORG
space factory a refining the production of Marsha They created for a
Nasa
ORG
competition to design the next generation of space habitats on
Mars
LOC
. You know when we started designing our
Mars
LOC
habits at Marsha I think we looked at everything that had been done already and kind of tossed that aside. But what we were given was a certain guidelines from
Nasa
ORG
. They think the best way to build a habitat on Of the moon is to use what they call institution resource utilization so use the materials that are there if you've seen sci-fi movies you might see like glass and steel domes on distant planets but the reality is to ship that kind of material to the moon of
Mars
LOC
would be You would never be able to build in the
first
ORDINAL
place. So, the idea is to send a 3d printing robot which can then harvest the materials you find on a site and build with that. Made from recycled plastic or plants like corn and sugarcane and bath salt a rock Found on
Mars
LOC
and
Earth
LOC
. Hey it's the rock that gives us it's incredible strength We've tested this material it's
three
CARDINAL
times as strong as concrete in compression and it actually has what we call it a tensile capacity prevent itself from being pulled apart which is something concrete's not very good at you need to think at all times how do you optimize the amount of material that you use and and that's also why this thing is shaped Like an egg and if you think of an egg it's a very structurally optimized form. It's very very thin. But it provides the strength that the egg needs and and that's why this is shaped the way that it is. The egg shape as well as the nested shell structure also accommodates for extreme differences in pressure and temperature on the surface of
Mars
LOC
More research still needs to be done to find out how print materials could be gathered and how threeD printing would work in a unique environment of space You're dealing with a completely different set of of physics and environments which is very harsh. Old, you know, the low gravity The vacuum of space, you know, and and finding solutions for how to build our or do anything in space. Just requires a high degree of innovation. There's no such thing as brute force when it comes to space. Like you need to think about the problem Find a very elegant lightweight cost effective
Beginning
ORG
to print with the dirt. We have to perfect this technology on earth And then we go prove it out on the moon And then finally on to
Mars
LOC
. The
first
ORDINAL
customers could include
NASA
ORG
and companies like SpaceX who would lease out these structures for individual missions but before that AI space factory hope there take technology could be monetized as well as transformational here on earth Build more sustainably so rather than building with steel and concrete which are these manufactured very energy intensive materials to go to a site Have a solar powered array that within
a hour
TIME
threeD printer to print in the most sustainable way possible and we never would have found these ways there wasn't for the challenge of building in space. Three, One. Humans have now been Living and working in space
More than 15 years
DATE
. And if we want to keep that up, what do habitats need to look like? And frankly, they can be larger, they can be small, but the future of space habitats really to me comes down to the ability to persistently maintain human presence. Whether that's a few people or many people. That seems Be the dividing line between where we were before and where we wanna be in the future We have to learn how to benefit from what we do on orbit and bring those natural benefits back home so we help ourselves out on the ground while we also learn to live somewhere else and it really at the very deepest level is about survival or space.
Back home so we help ourselves out on the ground while we also learn to live somewhere else and it really at the very deepest level is about survival or species so I get pretty excited when I spin a few moments thinking about what we're off to go do cuz this really is the
first
ORDINAL
step to learning to live live off the planet That
first
ORDINAL
step is just to start of our journey to create a lasting legacy in space. While commercial companies may be stepping into imagine what these new space habitats look like is what's happening inside of them that may unlock the future of space industrialization. On the next episode of
Giant Leap
ORG
we'll visit the private companies who are looking to build their business around manufacturing in space Using the unique properties of microgravity they plan to create new materials with extraordinary qualities that can't be replicated on earth Including new manufacturing techniques that could change how we build large structures in space and even unlock the ability to threeD print full human organs But before lower
Thorbit
ORG
can become a new industrial center we're going to need to take another giant leap This is how it used to work. A real estate agent would lock in the client. It stage the place hold an open house
every single weekend
DATE
and hope that the right buyer walks through that door
Years ago
DATE
you could probably go look at a house and circle back
2 to 3 weeks later
DATE
and still have an opportunity to make a bid the
first
ORDINAL
time I received a lead through
Instagram
ORG
my mind was blown if you're seeing something and a neighborhood that is established you have
2 to 3 days
DATE
after the open house in this market to make an offer our world has shifted so much folks Getting comfortable doing business either through social media or
100%
PERCENT
virtual. Social media like everything else it touches has turn the real estate business upside down. You've heard this trope before. Millennials aren't buying and owning as much as their parents generation. Be it a car, a diamond, or a home. But the lack of ownership is not always by choice. In
2018
DATE
, a survey found that
89%
PERCENT
of millennial
Americans
NORP
want to buy a home. They just can't afford it. As of
20
CARDINAL
Millennials of all stripes owned only five% of
US
GPE
housing compared with
15%
PERCENT
for gen Xers Millennials haven't been able to make these big ticket purchases the same way as their predecessors did. Now, this is down to the financial crisis. We have rising student loan debt and a higher cost of living. Now, millennials are getting older. They're earning more money and saving more. So, now is
Airbnb
ORG
's want something to call their own. I got married and I have a child so you know looking for more space and thought about the conventional route of young and single living the city and then move out to the suburbs when you have a kid in a wife I've seen a whole bunch of my friends just move on down to
the West Palm Beach
GPE
Miami
GPE
area
Austin Texas
PERSON
so they are certainly moving out of the city but space was top of mind for the moving out
My friends just move on down to
the West Palm Beach
GPE
,
Miami
GPE
area,
Austin
GPE
,
Texas
GPE
. So, they are certainly moving out of the city but space was top of mind for the moving out. We live in Williamsburg for
about 16 plus years
DATE
and
week two
DATE
in the pandemic we just realized we needed more so we started looking for a house right away Now living
Goshen
GPE
New York
GPE
which is
about an hour and a half
TIME
from
New York City
GPE
. Instagram accounts like circa houses and cheap old houses offer a glimpse into the perfect suburban life often at a price point not too dissimilar to what adults pay for rent in major cities by
the end of 2020
DATE
New Yorkers
NORP
who didn't flee paid an average of $
2700
MONEY
a month for an apartment even as rent prices plummeted during the Demic. Millennials make a large percentage of spending right now and that makes them a valuable consumer for brands. That means they're being corded by everyone out there to spend with them. They grew up online they're comfortable with pretty much anything that you can do there and that's that's buying things, selling things,
Craig's List
PERSON
,
eBay
ORG
, all that. Making $
100
MONEY
purchase on
Craigslist
ORG
or a $
1000
MONEY
purchase on
eBay
ORG
. It's not that much of a leap to go even further. If you're buying AA fancy piece of jewelry
House
ORG
for a
one 1 million bucks
MONEY
The uptick in home demand fueled by the pandemic combined with record low interest rates has made home buying extremely competitive over
the last year
DATE
so much so that some millennials look to social media to shop and actually buy their
first
ORDINAL
house site unseen. I saw sort of something on my Instagram feed and you know, clicked and we ended up seeing this house. The houses weren't really being shown at that time 'cuz we were in full lockdown. We became really interested.
One
CARDINAL
YouTube
ORG
video,
20
CARDINAL
photos. That is it. The red hot housing market spells opportunities for developers targeting this demographic getting eyeballs strictly through social media. People are not looking in the the back section of the times anymore for for real estate listings. Our demographic is
between eight 20s to mid 40s
DATE
and that demographic is spending a lot of time on social media and they're doing a lot of shopping via Instagram and other social media platforms This is
Joshua Gelb
PERSON
in
Pele Hamburger
PERSON
. During the pandemic, the
two
CARDINAL
new york city
GPE
based developers started
Neville House
PERSON
. A new construction project
2 hours
TIME
north of the city. Unlike most traditional real estate listings, the pair bypass the use of a broker and advertise their homes directly on
Instagram
ORG
. No No commissions. The higher broker work with them they would do showings on site now you basically Put your renderings on on
Instagram
NORP
and within
an hour
TIME
you have
15 20
CARDINAL
replies saying can I come see it directly with you and let's see you tomorrow and and it's just completely changed the the game most people have that image in their head of the quid essential upstate modern cabin said in the woods we've definitely tried to tap into that Create something that's attainable for these people. Say, you can have that. You can be swiping through
Instagram
NORP
and I can be your home too. There's been quite a proliferation of these direct consumer brands there's just tons of them out there it's not that hard to start up a website that's that sells things and get things manufactured For that e-commerce platform. So, like all birds with shoes, With mattresses or Warby
Parker
PERSON
with glasses all of that means a lot more opportunity for brands in the online shopping space so it's natural that real estate would wanna get involved as well with these big ticket items.
10 years ago
DATE
, the broker would drive the search. Now, I think that my clients text me listings. They have alerts. They find things quicker than we do sometimes cuz we're out and about. I'd say that the buyer is much more involved
these days
DATE
. Social selling is creating brand new ways to shop. So let's look at vintage clothing for example. There are sellers on
Instagram
ORG
finding successful ways to sell
one
CARDINAL
of a kind items. It's that fleeting nature, the ephemeral nature of social media. You post the item online and whoever's
first
ORDINAL
gets that
one
CARDINAL
of a kind item Now real estate has similar scarcity to it there's a
one
CARDINAL
place
Social media you post the item online and whoever's
first
ORDINAL
gets that
one
CARDINAL
of a kind item now real estate has similar scarcity to it there's a
one
CARDINAL
place to buy it's
one
CARDINAL
home one apartment one one thing it's one of a kind But the rise in social media real estate isn't just about the instant gratification researcher
Andre Perry
PERSON
who studies economic inclusion at
the Brookings Institute
ORG
says social media has evolved from
the days
DATE
of online hangout spaces and mood boards to a powerful change agent
Primary
PERSON
source to get news and information but it's not just about social media it's about the movement that we're in the racial justice uprising really gave people a sense of worth and empowerment and so people not only are getting information about what protects In the long run from economic shocks things like wealth. That not only are more millennials buying homes during the pandemic the rate of home ownership among black millennials are at historic highs. The fastest way to accumulate wealth in this country traditionally has been through homeownership. Millennials in particular are saying, hey, I want protection. I wanna live longer. I want my education to go further. Let me acquire wealth in in the best way to do that is through home ownership. When the pandemic hit many of the amenities or the comforts that came along with those living conditions were gone. Folks couldn't go to bars and fancy shops and so you saw instead of people going out and buying clothes, they saved their money
Bob Property
PERSON
and outside of the city generally people are moving to the suburbs to rural areas places where home prices are a little bit cheaper many home buyers are looking for houses outside the major metropolitan areas additionally many home buyers are looking for direct outdoor access and added space as the uncertainty about the virus Millennials are also looking to influencers not just for the latest trends and ticktock dances but to partake in important conversations be it about politics or personal finance or anything in between Real estate ownership. Let's start small. Let's don't be scared to start small. Instead, instead of renting a big house in the hills in
California
GPE
like most artists do by you won us on the flat. Meet folks like Brandon Rule and Charlamagne The God. They're talking about buying homes. Really home buying with a mysterious
Process
LOC
that only a few people could teach me. Now, I can easily log on to clubhouse or
Instagram
NORP
and find literally lessons on how to purchase a home but done in a with savvy and finesse.
Today
DATE
, we're gonna make A greenhouse. Heather having bought her fix her upper sight on scene also look to internet personalities to help figure out how to modernize and to make sure her home was also an investment Lot of confidence. They make it look super easy. How we could do all of those things ourselves. My husband just installed the laundry shoe which is something we never would have thought of if we didn't see an influencer do that and and how how easy it actually is. Really simple. You can do that. If you have any questions, go ahead and message me And in the case of
Neville House Josh
PERSON
and
Pele
PERSON
hope that buyers see these homes as potential secondary income Look at these young families. Look at these products. They're look at our homes and say, here's a turnkey
Airbnb
ORG
. This can serve our family but this can also be the perfect rental. We've tried to strike a balance in the design of a home for, you know, working well as a family home. That's gonna be lived in and also working as a as an investment A lot of this is points to how millennials can utilize and leverage social media to their benefit but it also speaks to again this moment that folks want freedom. So, millennials are really stepping up to this real estate game
Taking
WORK_OF_ART
ownership and building well.
Millennials are really stepping up to this real estate game and and taking ownership and billing well Of course, not everything is as it seems online. While social media can be a useful tool for learning there's still a lot it can't tell you about the home buying experience or living in the suburbs for that matter. We knew going into it by Jeannine for a lot of renovations. We kind of If we buy it at
450
CARDINAL
we could put
two 300 1000
CARDINAL
into the house and really make it ours and our own can't wait to replace in this kitchen and update our built in deep fryer which was Not in the listing photos. We kind of got into the house and we realized that budget was completely That we have a lot of people who see our design on
Instagram
NORP
they say I love it can you come build this on my property and then they'll send us a lot which they bought sight unseen during COVID and because of site conditions or zoning it's virtually unbuildable I think we all know that what you see on
Instagram
NORP
and what you see in real life or
two
CARDINAL
very different things so while we can definitely as brokers create these fantastic narratives the one recommendation that I would give is do your homework don't believe You say that's not to say that you know there's dishonesty or anything where people are trying to manipulate you but not everything you see is This shift towards social media house hunting may also help to bring equilibrium to a market that his historically disadvantaged specific groups of buyers Of the traditional ways that people got mortgages or or loans often precluded black people because they they deemed us too risky for those loans what technology there's ways to get around that as long as more black people get educated on racism Discrimination in lying to figure out ways to get around that racism. When I was
24 years old
DATE
I saw the
UFC
ORG
on a pay per view on TV Was so overwhelmed by the athleticism, the skill, Hey portal And I just fell in love with it. Part of
UFC
ORG
's appeal. Is it doesn't look like a ballettic display of marshal talent in mastery as much as it looks like a bar fight. We choose to do this because we love the sport but it is a business and if you do not treat it like a business I guarantee you if it's a promoter is And you will be left broken, broken at the end of your career. Each of us have an individual story but as with anything you take enough of these individual stories and you see not only crossover but intersectionality. Former
UFC
ORG
fighters that are suing the
UFC
ORG
scored a key legal victory on
Thursday
DATE
when a federal judge said he would grant their lawsuit class action status Fights in every major
US
GPE
.